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TWA772LR
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HA And The A321neoLR

Sun Nov 23, 2014 11:33 pm

HA currently has the A321neo base model on order, but like any smart airline would, they should (and may be already) look at the LR. With a 3900nmi range, this aircraft would make HA a bigger force in the Pacific and would even allow them to operate HNL-GUM to help break UAs monopoly on the route. Also, per gcmap.com, 3900 miles takes HA all the way to around PNS. OK, PNS won't happen, but it puts cities like Houston, Dallas, Chicago and the like within range.

Thoughts?
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S75752
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RE: HA And The A321neoLR

Sun Nov 23, 2014 11:37 pm

Is the 321LR actually up for orders/conversion yet?

If it isn't then I'd certainly predict that HA will convert when/if it does come available, but if it would mean waiting much longer than for the Neo then I would suspect that they'd maybe think twice on that.
 
azjubilee
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RE: HA And The A321neoLR

Sun Nov 23, 2014 11:47 pm

It's an interesting option, because it offers longer range without committing 250-300 seats to a market. However, like all other range claims, it doesn't take into account ETOPS rules etc... so I would suspect the 3,900nm would be less than that. I would imagine HAL is doing their due diligence and evaluating the prospects. If I had to guess, knowing how HAL operates, I would say the chances are remote that we'll see a narrow body flying long haul routes greater than 5-6 hour for HAL.

[Edited 2014-11-23 16:02:54]
 
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adamblang
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RE: HA And The A321neoLR

Sun Nov 23, 2014 11:58 pm

Quoting TWA772LR (Thread starter):
...would even allow them to operate HNL-GUM to help break UAs monopoly on the route.

Hawaiian has 252 passenger 767-300s already that could break the monopoly if they saw a market to do so.

On an 8 hour flight, if Hawaiian were to throw a 190 seat A321 on a route, I'd imagine either United or Hawaiian would have to drop the route. I'd imagine there's a reason – little money in the market – for such a low CASM aircraft on the route at such a low frequency.

I'd also be surprised if Hawaiian could make such a route work given United's network ex-GUM (modest but meaningful) to elsewhere in the Pacific.



[Edited 2014-11-23 16:15:06]
 
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lightsaber
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RE: HA And The A321neoLR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 12:16 am

Quoting S75752 (Reply 1):
If it isn't then I'd certainly predict that HA will convert when/if it does come available, but if it would mean waiting much longer than for the Neo then I would suspect that they'd maybe think twice on that.

Agreed, but it doesn't have to be 'all or nothing' for the LR and HA. They might end up buying a fraction of the fleet as LRs. For DEN and a few other destinations, it would just make sense.

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S75752
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RE: HA And The A321neoLR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 1:30 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 4):
Agreed, but it doesn't have to be 'all or nothing' for the LR and HA. They might end up buying a fraction of the fleet as LRs.

Well, my point of curiosity in particular is if it'd be wise to just go all LR (though, provided that it doesn't push back delivery schedule much). Get a full commonality, and that does make me wonder if the LR might have better economics and reliability for even the Hawaii - West Coast routes than the normal Neo.

One point of concern though is if US - Hawaii routes are more headwind impacted than the TATL routes, given the angle of the routes.
 
KD5MDK
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RE: HA And The A321neoLR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 2:15 am

I think there is enough west coast-Hawaii demand that having non-LR narrow bodies is going to continue to make sense.
 
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Ab345
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RE: HA And The A321neoLR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 2:32 am

Just trying to count the A321neoLR threads popping up lately and all of the potential american clients.

Imagine what would happen if it was a "true" 757 replacement !!        
 
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lightsaber
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RE: HA And The A321neoLR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 4:32 am

Quoting S75752 (Reply 5):
One point of concern though is if US - Hawaii routes are more headwind impacted than the TATL routes, given the angle of the routes.

3100nm is sufficient, with some payload penalties, to go to and from the islands. So the 3600nm of the 'standard NEO' with two ACTs will have enough missions. The 3900nm NEOLR with 3 ACTs will only benefit a few missions. I was thinking more the structure would have benefit for HA too. So pull out an ACT (to carry more cargo) and fly with 2 ACTs with a NEOLR to the West coast or put back in that ACT for flying further inland.

But then I played with the great circle mapper.

I only see DEN, SLC, PHX, YYC and maybe PPT (or other Tahitian airport) benefiting from the NEOLR in HA's fleet. For these over ocean missions 3900nm becomes about 3000nm of usable range. 3600nm would thus be say 2800nm 'still air' usable range.

Heck, when I draw the two gcmap.com range circles, it really only makes the NEOLR required for DEN...

So I'm going to have to take back my statement. The NEOLR might not provide enough added value for HA unless the added lift capabilities translate into better cargo hauling.

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ytz
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RE: HA And The A321neoLR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:48 pm

Quoting adamblang (Reply 3):
Hawaiian has 252 passenger 767-300s already that could break the monopoly if they saw a market to do so.

Hard to break a monopoly using a 252 seat aircraft. Using a 321NEO though leaves some room to play.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 8):
Heck, when I draw the two gcmap.com range circles, it really only makes the NEOLR required for DEN...

Could it not do DEN with the standard NEO?

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 4):
They might end up buying a fraction of the fleet as LRs. For DEN and a few other destinations, it would just make sense.

I think it's all or nothing. Either HA upgrades the whole order. And rotates aircraft through various routes. Or they don't go for the NEO LR.
 
FoxBravo
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RE: HA And The A321neoLR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 4:12 pm

Quoting ytz (Reply 9):
I think it's all or nothing. Either HA upgrades the whole order. And rotates aircraft through various routes. Or they don't go for the NEO LR.

I would agree. Seems pretty inefficient to have small subfleets. I believe they've ordered Pratt engines for their A321NEOs so it would seem like a no-brainer to upgrade their order to LRs. Even on West Coast to Hawaii routes where the regular A321NEO could work, I would think HA could benefit from the performance of the LR to avoid weight restrictions based on weather, wind, etc.
Common sense is not so common. -Voltaire
 
mpdpilot
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RE: HA And The A321neoLR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 4:38 pm

While it does make sense that an airline like HA would want the A321neoLR, I can't imagine them ordering it without a clear need, and I just don't see any routes where that little bit of extra range will do anything.

Also can someone clarify some things for me.

The A321neoLR for the 3900nm Range that is advertised, that requires additional fuel tanks in the cargo hold correct?

The only unchangable difference between the A321neo and the A321neoLR is the MTOW by a few tonnes correct?
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birdbrainz
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RE: HA And The A321neoLR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 6:18 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 8):
So I'm going to have to take back my statement. The NEOLR might not provide enough added value for HA unless the added lift capabilities translate into better cargo hauling.

Wouldn't it be the other way around?

The LR will have less space in the pits for cargo because of the extra fuel tank, and it's carrying more fuel. Unless it has a significantly higher max takeoff weight, it's not an ideal cargo carrying machine.

But then again, they have a 763 for that.
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azjubilee
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RE: HA And The A321neoLR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 6:54 pm

The bottom line is that HAL isn't going to get the LR unless they see a viable need for it, in their narrow body plans. Dunkerley and his team are smart and will be investigating the LR's benefits and will act accordingly. It won't make sense to change the order to the LR if it will only allow the introduction of 1 or 2 routes. For the rest, it would be a waste and perhaps limiting on cargo/baggage. The big question is when the LR will be made available? Plans are already in motion at the airline for a Fall 2017 arrival for the first 321neo. I doubt HAL will push that launch date back, just to get some LR's.
 
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seabosdca
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RE: HA And The A321neoLR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 6:59 pm

Quoting mpdpilot (Reply 11):
The only unchangable difference between the A321neo and the A321neoLR is the MTOW by a few tonnes correct?

Based on what we know so far, this is correct. The LR will have some structural reinforcement to allow for the extra MTOW. Whether the LR is worthwhile for HA depends on whether they can carry enough extra cargo using the extra MTOW headroom to make up for the cost of carrying the LR's extra structural weight around. My guess is no, but I could be very wrong.
 
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TWA772LR
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RE: HA And The A321neoLR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 8:32 pm

Quoting FoxBravo (Reply 10):
I believe they've ordered Pratt engines for their A321NEOs

I thought the LR is going to be powered by the LEAP?
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azjubilee
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RE: HA And The A321neoLR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 8:34 pm

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 15):

HAL did indeed go for the Pratt option for their neo's. If the LR is different, it likely signals that HAL may not be interested. I can't see them changing at this point.
 
FoxBravo
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RE: HA And The A321neoLR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:00 pm

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 15):
I thought the LR is going to be powered by the LEAP?

Turns out it will have both options--for some reason I thought it was only Pratt. See report here: http://leehamnews.com/2014/10/21/exc...lr-long-range-to-replace-757-200w/

Quoting azjubilee (Reply 13):
Plans are already in motion at the airline for a Fall 2017 arrival for the first 321neo. I doubt HAL will push that launch date back, just to get some LR's.

Fair point--looks like the LR won't be available until 2018.
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mpdpilot
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RE: HA And The A321neoLR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:45 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 14):
Based on what we know so far, this is correct. The LR will have some structural reinforcement to allow for the extra MTOW. Whether the LR is worthwhile for HA depends on whether they can carry enough extra cargo using the extra MTOW headroom to make up for the cost of carrying the LR's extra structural weight around. My guess is no, but I could be very wrong.

Yeah that makes sense.
One mile of highway gets you one mile, one mile of runway gets you anywhere.
 
azjubilee
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RE: HA And The A321neoLR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:46 pm

Quoting FoxBravo (Reply 17):
Fair point--looks like the LR won't be available until 2018.

Since the deliveries for the neo's are scheduled to take place over a few years, I suppose the later deliveries could always be converted to LR's should HAL see the need and still keep the program on track.
 
ANA787
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RE: HA And The A321neoLR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:48 pm

Think we'll see a return of PDX/SAN-OGG and maybe some new routes such as SEA/PDX-LIH/KOA.
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: HA And The A321neoLR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:48 pm

Quoting S75752 (Reply 1):
Is the 321LR actually up for orders/conversion yet?

No, Airbus just finished the drawings and is now proposing the concept to their customers. The jet will only be launched when they have found several operators for the type.

[Edited 2014-11-24 13:49:31]
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MIflyer12
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RE: HA And The A321neoLR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:51 pm

Quoting adamblang (Reply 3):
Quoting TWA772LR (Thread starter):
...would even allow them to operate HNL-GUM to help break UAs monopoly on the route.

Hawaiian has 252 passenger 767-300s already that could break the monopoly if they saw a market to do so.

How is there a monopoly? Any U.S. carrier can start service if they wish to. Single current non-stop carrier does not equal monopoly.
 
azjubilee
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RE: HA And The A321neoLR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 10:25 pm

Quoting ANA787 (Reply 20):
Think we'll see a return of PDX/SAN-OGG and maybe some new routes such as SEA/PDX-LIH/KOA.

I think those are all possibilities when the NEO's arrive. I have a feeling that we may see more OGG expansion with the 767/330 before then, along side the resumption of the LAX/OAK-KOA/LIH service from this past summer.
 
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TWA772LR
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RE: HA And The A321neoLR

Mon Nov 24, 2014 10:52 pm

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 22):
How is there a monopoly? Any U.S. carrier can start service if they wish to

As of right now UA is the only carrier on the route, therefore they have a monopoly and virtually have free reighn to charge what ever they want on the route.

However, since the A321neoLR has the potential yo fly HNL-GUM, this may be HAs chance to enter the market, introducing competition, thus breaking the monopoly.
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RE: HA And The A321neoLR

Tue Nov 25, 2014 12:23 am

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 15):
I thought the LR is going to be powered by the LEAP?

Initially, the sources I saw said they would be PW only, but now I see new sources saying that there will also be the GE offering.

Quoting azjubilee (Reply 13):
The big question is when the LR will be made available? Plans are already in motion at the airline for a Fall 2017 arrival for the first 321neo. I doubt HAL will push that launch date back, just to get some LR's.

There is also always the possibility of flying a mixed fleet, though. It's not as if the LR is going to be a lead brick that can't possibly make money on shorter routes. It could even be used for the occasional interisland route (especially routes like KOA-OGG or KOA-LIH) without destroying the engines. Those GTFs are especially efficient during the takeoff/climb phases.
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airportugal310
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RE: HA And The A321neoLR

Tue Nov 25, 2014 12:50 am

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 22):
How is there a monopoly? Any U.S. carrier can start service if they wish to. Single current non-stop carrier does not equal monopoly.

You are 100% correct, and I wholeheartedly agree...but try telling the "locals" that. All they want are cheap tickets, business and people who work there be damned.

Rant over  
“They bought their tickets, they knew what they were getting into. I say, let 'em crash.”
 
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aloha73g
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RE: HA And The A321neoLR

Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:00 am

I don't think it has to be all or nothing. If they see opportunities with the LR, I could definitely see HA ordering a few.

HA's 763 fleet is very diverse...they have ER & non-ER models, as well as every conceivable door configuration. The only question is do they need it?? Are there enough? any? mainland cities within range of the LR that the NEO can't reach??

-Aloha!
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azjubilee
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RE: HA And The A321neoLR

Tue Nov 25, 2014 7:06 pm

Quoting aloha73g (Reply 27):

I don't think it has to be all or nothing. If they see opportunities with the LR, I could definitely see HA ordering a few.

HA's 763 fleet is very diverse...they have ER & non-ER models, as well as every conceivable door configuration. The only question is do they need it?? Are there enough? any? mainland cities within range of the LR that the NEO can't reach??

Exactly my points, but HAL seems to be in this transformation mode to streamlining things and being efficient. Ordering a few LR's just for one or two routes doesn't make much sense. The 767 fleet is diverse because it was amassed over time from several sources, not exactly by choice. The 330s are virtually identical.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 25):
There is also always the possibility of flying a mixed fleet, though. It's not as if the LR is going to be a lead brick that can't possibly make money on shorter routes. It could even be used for the occasional interisland route (especially routes like KOA-OGG or KOA-LIH) without destroying the engines. Those GTFs are especially efficient during the takeoff/climb phases.

There is the possibility of a mixed fleet, but as I said above, HAL is trying to streamline and be more efficient. Operating mixed fleets reduces flexibility and operating a few token airplanes (LR) to serve one or two routes may not make a whole lot of sense. As for operating the plane inter-island, that's always been the plan. They've said they'd like to operate a neo to a neighbor island during the peak and then send it to the west coast.

It'll be interesting to see how HAL reacts to the LR development.
 
BeachBoy
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RE: HA And The A321neoLR

Wed Nov 26, 2014 7:51 am

Quoting airportugal310 (Reply 26):
You are 100% correct, and I wholeheartedly agree...but try telling the "locals" that. All they want are cheap tickets, business and people who work there be damned.

As a "local" I find this comment to be extremely offensive because quite frankly, it seems to me that since HA essentially has a "monopoly" on interisland flights their attitude is "locals" be damned. I routinely pay $100-150 one way for a flight from HNL-OGG and it is not uncommon to see $200 one way flights to the Big Island. As a comparison, I usually pay $60-$90 for one way flights on Southwest with no baggage fees and no change fees for much longer flights. I find this comment to be offensive because in my line of work, it's becoming common for extended family members to be unable to visit sick/dying relatives because of airfare. However, I understand that HA is a business and needs to make money so I'm not surprised by the current situation.

But this leads to my second point about the definition of a "monopoly." Small markets like HNL-GUM and HNL-PPG are only big enough for 1 airline. Although, yes, technically any airline can enter the market, it's unlikely any will because the barriers to entry (costs associated w/ a remote station, little traffic, loyalties to the incumbent airline) are pretty high so I think they meet the definition of a monopoly.

Back on topic, I think until HA changes their business model to use HNL as a connecting hub to its international flights and/or develops deeper codeshare relationships w/ other airlines like F9, B6, WN the A321neoLR will be unnecessary since the only markets the LR will be needed for pure O&D are probably too small--BOI, GEG, SLC, DEN, PHX, ABQ.
 
S75752
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RE: HA And The A321neoLR

Wed Nov 26, 2014 11:12 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 8):

So I'm going to have to take back my statement. The NEOLR might not provide enough added value for HA unless the added lift capabilities translate into better cargo hauling.

What I had wondered about is if the economics of the LR might prove superior to the Neo. If there might be other benefits to buying the LR and simply using it on routes that the Neo would be fine on.

But aren't they putting more powerful engines on the LR? Shouldn't that help the MTOW a bit? It somewhat makes me think that my statement about it having weaker engines than the 752 might still hold some truth, I don't know though.

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