Indy
Posts: 4843
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 1:37 pm

RE: AS Announces PDX-STL,SEA-OKC/MKE

Mon Dec 01, 2014 8:51 pm

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 93):
Wasn't IND a NW focus city at one time? They did have the advantage of a loyal FF following in both markets.

DL has that same advantage now. They have a large following in both markets. So even if AS doesn't jump on the route, DL should.

FYI... According to Faremeasure.com the daily passengers to Seattle is 283.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
threeifbyair
Posts: 939
Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2007 1:44 pm

RE: AS Announces PDX-STL,SEA-OKC/MKE

Tue Dec 02, 2014 1:30 am

Quoting Indy (Reply 91):
Even without Amazon, it is still a sizable unserved route. There is the O/D between IND and SEA as well as the IND-SEA-Asia traffic. Even if the Amazon contribution is small, it is still a contribution. NW filled that flight daily. No reason another carrier like AS or DL couldn't do the same.

I'm with you on that. Many of my colleagues would absolutely love a SEA-IND nonstop to avoid connecting in MSP or ORD. IND has a sizable catchment area that lacks any nonstop to SEA. It is one of the best unserved cities remaining for AS from SEA.
 
User avatar
knope2001
Posts: 2942
Joined: Wed Jun 01, 2005 5:54 am

RE: AS Announces PDX-STL,SEA-OKC/MKE

Tue Dec 02, 2014 4:20 am

Quoting Indy (Reply 100):
FYI... According to Faremeasure.com the daily passengers to Seattle is 283.

Faremeasure.com uses the quarterly DoT stats, but (a) they don't make it clear that those numbers are both ways combined and they don't readily state what quarter they are from (if they state it at all).

A good way to demonstrate that the faremeasure.com numbers are both ways combined is to look up Latrobe-Orlando, a route which is only served by Spirit's single daily nonstop flight (actually on average about 6 per week). Faremeasure.com says "On average, 232 passengers travel the 824 miles between Arnold Palmer Regional Airport to Orlando International Airport each day." That's not possible with a single daily Spirit flight (actually between 5 and 6 days per week). But it makes perfect sense if you divide by two to get 116/day each way. Multiply that times 7 to get 812 per week and divide that 5.5 weekly flights and you get about 148 onboard per flight -- not far out of line for Spirit.

Anyway, back to Indy and Seattle. These are the local passengers reported in the DoT quarterly stats for the four most recent quarters:

2013 q2 ….. 283 ….. about 142/day each way (this must be the quarter Faremeasure is using)
2013 q3 ….. 302 ….. about 151/day each way
2013 q4 ….. 235 ….. about 118/day each way
2014 q1 ….. 160 ….. about 80/day each way

That's about 123/day average through the year flying each way between IND and SEA. The seasonal variation could prove a challenge to service, though.

The average of 123/day puts Indy at the top of the list of cities with no nonstop service to Seattle. Nashville, with an average of about 164/day each way through the year, has summer nonstops on WN.

ow pax...miles.....city
123 ….. 1866 ….. IND
117 ….. 2354 ….. RDU
91 ….. 2125 ….. PIT
87 ….. 2016 ….. CMH
78 ….. 2437 ….. ORF
76 ….. 2443 ….. JAX
63 ….. 2432 ….. BDL
60 ….. 2415 ….. CHS
57 ….. 2363 ….. RIC
57 ….. 2122 ….. BUF
49 ….. 1368 ….. ELP
48 ….. 1807 ….. GRR
47 ….. 1871 ….. MEM
46 ….. 1430 ….. ICT
45 ….. 1945 ….. SDF
44 ….. 1558 ….. TUL
44 ….. 1622 ….. MSN

Always worth remembering when looking to numbers like this are several points:


--Adding a nonstop tends to stimulate a market somewhat, especially if it can pull people from alternate airports. For example some people who may now fly EVV-xxx-SEA may drive to Indianapolis to catch the nonstop.

--Not all passengers will take a nonstop, especially if they chose another airline for a lower fare, or FF benefits, or a different departure time.

--If someone like AS or DL flies a route like IND-SEA it does not have to rely on local traffic alone because connections beyond SEA can be service. Of course it must compete against other connection options -- a single IND-SEA-PDX routing (for example) competes for Indy-Portland passengers among dozens of alternate connecting options on several airlines through several hubs. But connecting traffic can help to supplement local traffic.

If IND-SEA was solidly in the reliable range of the E175 which OO will operate for AS it would likely be among the announced additions. Although at least some versions of the E175 have published maximum ranges of more than 1866 miles, those published ranges are often not realistic in all cases, like into a strong headwind in winter. Perhaps they will find that it can work, but more likely SEA-IND would need to be an AS 737=700 or DL 319, each of which seats around 124. That makes it a notch more difficult to justify than a 76-seat E175. But Indy would hardly be a shocking addition to AS or DL's Seattle portfolio.

FYI this is the link where the DoT stats are found. Table 6 works for Seattle since it is a one-airport city.

http://www.dot.gov/policy/aviation-p...stic-airline-fares-consumer-report
 
BoeingGuy
Posts: 6314
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:01 pm

RE: AS Announces PDX-STL,SEA-OKC/MKE

Tue Dec 02, 2014 4:59 am

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 102):
123 ….. 1866 ….. IND
117 ….. 2354 ….. RDU
91 ….. 2125 ….. PIT
87 ….. 2016 ….. CMH
78 ….. 2437 ….. ORF
76 ….. 2443 ….. JAX
63 ….. 2432 ….. BDL
60 ….. 2415 ….. CHS
57 ….. 2363 ….. RIC
57 ….. 2122 ….. BUF
49 ….. 1368 ….. ELP
48 ….. 1807 ….. GRR
47 ….. 1871 ….. MEM
46 ….. 1430 ….. ICT
45 ….. 1945 ….. SDF
44 ….. 1558 ….. TUL
44 ….. 1622 ….. MSN

This is an interesting table. Unless a new route would stimulate O/D and/or connecting traffic, it seems like the only remaining viable new USA destinations from SEA for AS are RDU, IND and BNA. The only other route that is already served, and thus not on this list, that might viable is CLT. Maybe JFK too if you count multi-airport cities, although they serve EWR.

Thus, we can probably expect AS to next announce CLT, RDU, IND, BNA. This list of possible new AS cities seems to be getting much smaller.

It's interesting to see how far down MEM is on the list since DL discontinued the route and de-hubbed MEM. I assume ITO isn't even on this scale.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4031
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

RE: AS Announces PDX-STL,SEA-OKC/MKE

Tue Dec 02, 2014 5:03 am

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 103):
This is an interesting table. Unless a new route would stimulate O/D and/or connecting traffic, it seems like the only remaining viable new USA destinations from SEA for AS are RDU, IND and BNA. The only other route that is already served, and thus not on this list, that might viable is CLT. Maybe JFK too if you count multi-airport cities, although they serve EWR.

Thus, we can probably expect AS to next announce CLT, RDU, IND, BNA. This list of possible new AS cities seems to be getting much smaller.

It's interesting to see how far down MEM is on the list since DL discontinued the route and de-hubbed MEM. I assume ITO isn't even on this scale.

They will continue to build up Portland, San Diego, ANC, and maybe even LA if they ran out of destinations from SEA (which I doubt with introduction of E-Jets).
 
User avatar
SANFan
Posts: 5139
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

RE: AS Announces PDX-STL,SEA-OKC/MKE

Tue Dec 02, 2014 6:40 am

Quoting 32andBelow (Reply 104):
They will continue to build up Portland, San Diego, ANC, and maybe even LA if they ran out of destinations from SEA (which I doubt with introduction of E-Jets).

I'm seeing all this discussion of IND and SEA and, interestingly enough (to me), the O&D traffic between IND and SAN is just about the same as SEA (except of course without the same amount of connecting traffic over SEA.)

In any case, this would be a perfect example of a route that AS could serve from both corners of the west coast and, at least as of now, would have to themselves. (I have a feeling SAN-IND won't be un-served for long -- it is currently the largest market out of SAN without nonstop service...) But I do realize that it's unlikely that AS would jump on anything out of SAN at this time.

Sorry, I didn't mean to detract from the SEA discussion.

bb
 
Prost
Posts: 2474
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 6:23 pm

RE: AS Announces PDX-STL,SEA-OKC/MKE

Tue Dec 02, 2014 7:10 am

Is there any pushback from Alaska pilots on bringing in the 76 seaters?
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4031
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

RE: AS Announces PDX-STL,SEA-OKC/MKE

Tue Dec 02, 2014 7:12 am

Quoting Prost (Reply 106):

Is there any pushback from Alaska pilots on bringing in the 76 seaters?

The Q400 is 72 seats. These are on routes that weren't previously operated, and as others have said there is nothing restricting in the contract.
 
Prost
Posts: 2474
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 6:23 pm

RE: AS Announces PDX-STL,SEA-OKC/MKE

Tue Dec 02, 2014 7:35 am

I guess what I'm wondering is why the Embraers aren't being brought into the Horizon certificate so that the operations are more 'in house.' I understand how most regionals work, but AS/QX seem to work so well, I'm not sure why OO is being given the flights. Training? Keeping both AS and QX single fleets simplifies everything?
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4031
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

RE: AS Announces PDX-STL,SEA-OKC/MKE

Tue Dec 02, 2014 7:37 am

OO already operates CRJ's under AS CPA, it is just an expansion under that contract. AAG made the decision to keep single types under QX and AS, and there must be a reason for it.
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9526
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

RE: AS Announces PDX-STL,SEA-OKC/MKE

Tue Dec 02, 2014 7:51 am

Quoting Prost (Reply 108):

I guess what I'm wondering is why the Embraers aren't being brought into the Horizon certificate so that the operations are more 'in house.' I understand how most regionals work, but AS/QX seem to work so well, I'm not sure why OO is being given the flights. Training? Keeping both AS and QX single fleets simplifies everything?

My personal guesses on why they are using OO:

1. Keep QX a single type fleet.
2. Diversify their relationships so that they can better respond to market conditions without saddling QX with too much capacity.
3. Hedge against what I believe are the somewhat higher labor costs of QX.

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
INFINITI329
Posts: 2471
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 12:53 am

RE: AS Announces PDX-STL,SEA-OKC/MKE

Tue Dec 02, 2014 9:37 am

Quoting 32andBelow (Reply 107):
The Q400 is 72 seats.

Well thats basicly in-house so they probably won't gripe about that
 
ASFlyer
Posts: 1659
Joined: Sat May 28, 2005 1:25 pm

RE: AS Announces PDX-STL,SEA-OKC/MKE

Tue Dec 02, 2014 5:15 pm

The QX Q4's actually have 76 seats
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4031
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

RE: AS Announces PDX-STL,SEA-OKC/MKE

Tue Dec 02, 2014 5:32 pm

Quoting infiniti329 (Reply 111):
Well thats basicly in-house so they probably won't gripe about that

It is under the same parent company, but they operate as separate operations, pay scales, etc.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos