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DFWEagle
Posts: 169
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 8:12 am

RE: OAG Changes 11/28/2014: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Thu Nov 27, 2014 3:49 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 4):
AA LAX-DFW APR 17>15 MAY 17>15 JUN 17>15 JUL 17>15

After DL launching LAX-DFW, WN launching LAX-DAL, and VX moving their service to LAX-DAL, the impact to AA is finally showing.

Frequency is only part of the picture. AA will be flying 8x daily DFW-LAX flights with the 767-300ER compared to mostly 738s previously. Despite the slight drop in frequency, seats will actually be up and they will offer a way better premium seat on over half of the daily flights.
Ryan in DFW
 
AeroWesty
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RE: OAG Changes 11/28/2014: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Thu Nov 27, 2014 4:15 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AA DFW-PDX FEB 4>3 APR 5>3 MAY 5>4
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AA ORD-PDX FEB 1.4>0.8 APR 2>1.0 MAY 2>1.0
Quoting enilria (Reply 3):
UA ORD-PDX APR 1.9>3
Quoting enilria (Reply 3):
*US PHL-PDX MAY 0>0.8 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0

Just as the Port of Portland is reminding us of how robust PDX traffic is this year, with record-setting numbers of travelers using the facility.

Quoting commavia (Reply 42):
Seems to fit in with AA's small, but meaningful, growth in several ORD-West Coast markets over the last few summers.

Does it now.
International Homo of Mystery
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 11/28/2014: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Thu Nov 27, 2014 4:26 pm

Quoting pdxav8r (Reply 41):

Not sure I get the '*' US entries for PHL to PDX and SMF for summer.

They are significant routes and they were not for sale a week ago.

Quoting diverdave (Reply 47):
Of course they will.

The difficulty is defining when "eventually" will actually happen. 

Buy low, sell high. The "WHEN" is the fun part.

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 48):
Quoting enilria (Reply 37):
I tend to think that only one of UA@DEN and DL@SLC will survive.

ONLY in the event UA & DL merge which is about as unlikely as a merger gets of two U.S. flag air carriers. DEN begged and pleaded DL to move their SLC hub there once the DIA facility was up and running just over 2 decades ago... didn't happen.

Both are weak hubs and given how many hubs have gone away it is hard to imagine one does not close. This is the top of the economic cycle and I can prove from DOT data that SLC is DL's worst domestic hub. UA has a lot of competition for that title, but IAH/ORD/EWR/SFO are almost certainly better. LAX/IAD/DEN are probably all similar. The fact that DEN is falling all over themselves to throw money at UA for making any kind of commitment there is probably indication that people on the front lines think UA is at risk. It is hard to imagine UA at DEN being at at SLC being safe with SEA growing dramatically.
 
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diverdave
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RE: OAG Changes 11/28/2014: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Thu Nov 27, 2014 8:58 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 52):
I can prove from DOT data that SLC is DL's worst domestic hub.

Given that SLC has one of the larger if not the largest WN infestation of any Delta hub, I would expect you are correct on the yields.

But Delta needs a connecting hub for domestic traffic in the West, and I don't see that LAX or SEA could fill that need due to geography not to mention gate constraints.
 
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SLCUT2777
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RE: OAG Changes 11/28/2014: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Fri Nov 28, 2014 2:13 am

Quoting diverdave (Reply 53):
Given that SLC has one of the larger if not the largest WN infestation of any Delta hub, I would expect you are correct on the yields.

WN has pulled back in SLC, with AS ramping up. None the less WN will be the biggest thorn in the side of UA @DEN & DL @SLC.

Quoting enilria (Reply 52):
Both are weak hubs and given how many hubs have gone away it is hard to imagine one does not close. This is the top of the economic cycle and I can prove from DOT data that SLC is DL's worst domestic hub. UA has a lot of competition for that title, but IAH/ORD/EWR/SFO are almost certainly better. LAX/IAD/DEN are probably all similar. The fact that DEN is falling all over themselves to throw money at UA for making any kind of commitment there is probably indication that people on the front lines think UA is at risk. It is hard to imagine UA at DEN being at at SLC being safe with SEA growing dramatically.

There's more to the financial equation than just USDOT numbers. DEN & SLC aren't the same dynamic with UA & DL, that YYC or YEG are for AC & WS. Both UA and DL are reluctant to walk away from hubs with rapidly expanding populations. AA will walk away from the PHX hub due to the WN infestation much faster. I doubt they could replicate WN @PHX in both SLC & DEN, unless they find a secondary airport (like PVU to SLC) to embed themselves in. UA and DL aren't leaving Colorado and/or Utah anytime soon.
DELTA Air Lines; The Only Way To Fly from Salt Lake City; Let the Western Heritage always be with Delta!
 
MIflyer12
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RE: OAG Changes 11/28/2014: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Fri Nov 28, 2014 2:16 am

Quoting diverdave (Reply 53):
Given that SLC has one of the larger if not the largest WN infestation of any Delta hub, I would expect you are correct on the yields.

It's not even close to the largest WN flight count, even ignoring ATL. Even LGA sees more WN flights than SLC.
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 11/28/2014: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Fri Nov 28, 2014 2:40 pm

Quoting diverdave (Reply 53):
Given that SLC has one of the larger if not the largest WN infestation of any Delta hub, I would expect you are correct on the yields.

It's not just yields. So, you can overlay the DB1B data with routing over the DL route network and then correct for loads (DB1B is a 10% sample) with T100 and be pretty much dead on with hub RASM. I've done it. Stage adjusted, SLC is by far the worst domestic hub. Not saying it doesn't make a profit, but if it does it means that the other domestic DL hubs have margins of at least 15% fully allocated. Again, if you adjust for stage length it is essentially unchanged.

DL also has a history of cannibalizing capacity from the lowest performing hub to expand and with the overlapping geography of SEA and SLC that is the logical choice. In fact, I'll say this. If they don't do that they are purposefully worsening their overall profitability because SLC is the lowest hanging fruit left for funding new routes.

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 54):
DEN & SLC aren't the same dynamic with UA & DL

Again, I was comparing SLC to the other DL hubs in terms of profitability and UA against other UA hubs. Since both hubs are poor performers and hub consolidation rolls on, it is a logical step to say that one is endangered. I also left out PHX which overlaps them to some extent and is definitely AA's poorest performing domestic hub. So, bottom line, there are too many hubs in the West and it gets worse when DL has a 30 gate hub in SEA.

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 54):
Both UA and DL are reluctant to walk away from hubs with rapidly expanding populations.

I don't know how you base that statement on any sort of fact. Profitability is much more likely to be the decision maker than population. IAD area has great population growth and is shrinking rapidly as a hub and may close completely.
 
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SLCUT2777
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RE: OAG Changes 11/28/2014: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Fri Nov 28, 2014 10:33 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 56):
IAD area has great population growth and is shrinking rapidly as a hub and may close completely.

IAD is too close to EWR, much the way CVG has been too close to DTW, entirely a different set of marbles. DEN is still a considerable distance from the likes of ORD, IAH or SFO, just as SLC is still a good distance from LAX or SFO which would require too much back-flight for too many established DL customers. IAH on the other hand is likely to get larger as time marches on at the expense of a more stagnant ORD. The northeast and upper midwest are the locations with too many hubs, which is why PIT, CLE & STL are now gone.
DELTA Air Lines; The Only Way To Fly from Salt Lake City; Let the Western Heritage always be with Delta!
 
HPRamper
Posts: 5149
Joined: Sat May 14, 2005 4:22 am

RE: OAG Changes 11/28/2014: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Sat Nov 29, 2014 4:14 am

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 57):
IAD is too close to EWR, much the way CVG has been too close to DTW, entirely a different set of marbles. DEN is still a considerable distance from the likes of ORD, IAH or SFO, just as SLC is still a good distance from LAX or SFO which would require too much back-flight for too many established DL customers.

UA at DEN is long run probably safer than DL at SLC. Two reasons - the F9 retreat in DEN giving market share back to UA (and WN, but still some to UA nonetheless) is the smaller reason. The big thing is that DL now has hubs - or something close to - in LAX and SEA. Much is made of SLC as the "mountain west" hub but I would think most connecting traffic transiting SLC is headed from point to point west of the Rockies. The three largest markets on the coast are LAX, SEA and Bay Area. Put hubs in two of those, with frequent flights between those and the third market, no need for another hub.
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 11/28/2014: AA/DL/F9/UA/US

Sat Nov 29, 2014 5:36 am

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 57):
Quoting enilria (Reply 56):
IAD area has great population growth and is shrinking rapidly as a hub and may close completely.

IAD is too close to EWR

But you said that airlines don't close hubs with growing populations.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 58):
The big thing is that DL now has hubs - or something close to - in LAX and SEA. Much is made of SLC as the "mountain west" hub but I would think most connecting traffic transiting SLC is headed from point to point west of the Rockies.

Like I've said, you can't tell me that DL's new DEN-SEA isn't going to take traffic off DEN-SLC and now they've got 30 gates they want in SEA coming at some point. How many more routes will steal traffic from SEA?

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