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RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Mon Dec 22, 2014 12:58 am
by Jerseyguy
Last week my parents returned home from a trip to FL. They did TTN-MCO (DEC 9) and TPA-TTN (DEC 15). They said that both flights had plenty of extra overhead space most likely due to the carry-on fee (they didn't take a carry-on themselves). I'm wondering if the carry-on fee is working and sending most people to check baggage? Also is this slowing down the getting of bags to the carousel or causing any problems with the additional baggage that needs to be checked?

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Mon Dec 22, 2014 1:12 am
by rtalk25
I think the carryon bag fee discourages pax to use carryons, and thus improves boarding and bin space availabity. Ive seen ample bin space available on Spirit flights as well.

Out of TTN, my last experience involved a below 35 degree morning where it was freezing while I and many others were standing on the jet ramp. Its always a cold day when I use TTN for some reason. I tend not to like to wear a big bulky jacket on flights. It's all the better if fewer pax are taking time putting up suitcases in those bins, while a line waits outside.

A more than few of the pax on the PBI flight seemed like NJ to Florida/ Florida to NJ regulars (a lot of senior citizens), including a grandma visiting to babysit kids and not carrying much at all with belongings in both house and child's house. I think the lower fares and convenience offsets the checked bag fee.

[Edited 2014-12-21 17:21:11]

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Mon Dec 22, 2014 1:23 am
by jeepyjeep
Flew from DEN-MDT yesterday on United (via IAD), but happened to deplane at the gate across the walkway from the Frontier gate. MDT has a table with cards and a box set up at the Frontier gate that urges anyone who is a business traveler who is negatively impacted by the discontinuation of the Frontier DEN-MDT service to fill out a card and drop it in the box. I filled one out as I used the DEN-MDT flight a lot for work as well as for personal travel.

I don't think MDT is going to secure another carrier to fly DEN-MDT, but it looks like they are trying!

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Mon Dec 22, 2014 2:58 am
by enilria
Quoting ryanrap1 (Reply 49):
Any chance of them returning to San Antonio?

Absolutely, just not to Denver. Pretty much anything is possible with F9 in medium or larger markets these days.

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Mon Dec 22, 2014 3:39 am
by Jerseyguy
Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 51):
Out of TTN, my last experience involved a below 35 degree morning where it was freezing while I and many others were standing on the jet ramp. Its always a cold day when I use TTN for some reason. I tend not to like to wear a big bulky jacket on flights. It's all the better if fewer pax are taking time putting up suitcases in those bins, while a line waits outside.

I saw a grown man take that to extreme, he was walking thru the baggage trailer with shorts while it was 33-34 degrees out, I also saw a kid with shorts and no shoes or even socks on (but thats a topic for another day). There are pros and there are cons to flying out of TTN among the cons of doing so is the outside boarding. While faster boarding times might be a perk for you because of the weather, its more of a perk for Frontier for the quicker turn around times. I'm pretty sure you can bring a coat and a personal item and put them in the overhead bin (only if room is needed for a paid carry-on bag will you be asked to stow it under the seat but thats not likely to happen with less people bringing them on).

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Mon Dec 22, 2014 3:56 am
by WaywardMemphian
Quoting Surfandsnow (Reply 45):
I think the best hope for BKG at this point is AA or NK. AA seems to have a knack for pulling off small niche markets (JLN, MHK, ROW, SAF, etc.), I could see RJ services to DFW and ORD working. NK has a knack for serving low end mass market destinations (Atlantic City, Myrtle Beach, and Branson, anyone?) and a decent presence in key markets like ATL, DFW, IAH, and ORD.

I'm in NWA and go up there often and Branson has to reinvent itself. The proliferation of regional casinos has diminished the draw of Branson being a music dominated tourist destination with acts setting up permanent shop is over. That's not to say some types of acts can't make it and even be good draws but it being the star attraction is over. What Branson does have is one fine theme park. Outside of the Disney's and Universals of America, Silver Dollar City is an excellently executed, well themed and well run park. It's focus has been adding rides to get it's count higher and each major ride is highly themed. The shows are well produced and many change throughout the year as festivals change. The place at Christmas is one of the top places to go in the country. And... it's got a cave that's part of the admission. Only Them Park I know of that actually has a church service on Sundays in a real church on property.Johnny Morris, the founder of Bass Pro is very active in the TIme Share, Hotel, and now Golf business up there. What he is doing with Top of the Rock is quite amazing. Who knows what else he has up his sleeve, I know what he's turning the Pyramid in Memphis into and it's quite the endeavor. Branson has to expand it's offerings a family weekend getaway destination as the economy improves and the money starts flowing again.

But, doesn't AA fly out of Springfield, and not only that I know they fly to Dallas out of Ft. Smith and AA has a big presence at XNA. XNA is going to end up with 640,000 enplanements this year, smashing the prerecession high. Why wouldn't Spirit move into XNA, this place would eat up the WalMart of the skies.

Supposedly the airline that's running the Houston and Chicago flights out of Branson is going to add new destinations soon. They offer flights to Dulles like what is rumored for under a 1,000 R/T for a family of 4 and we'll be using them soon.

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Mon Dec 22, 2014 7:44 pm
by 727tiger
Quoting WaywardMemphian (Reply 55):
But, doesn't AA fly out of Springfield, and not only that I know they fly to Dallas out of Ft. Smith and AA has a big presence at XNA. XNA is going to end up with 640,000 enplanements this year, smashing the prerecession high. Why wouldn't Spirit move into XNA, this place would eat up the WalMart of the skies.

Supposedly the airline that's running the Houston and Chicago flights out of Branson is going to add new destinations soon. They offer flights to Dulles like what is rumored for under a 1,000 R/T for a family of 4 and we'll be using them soon.

AA offers at least 11 flights a day to ORD and DFW from SGF, my current home airport, in addition to its extensive service to XNA and small service to JOP. I don't see AA offering any additional service to BKG.

Looks like the small scheduled charter service at BKG will now offer service to DEN in addition to MDW and HOU. Very small amount of service, though.

It will remain interesting to watch the BKG experiment.

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Fri Dec 26, 2014 5:20 pm
by GentFromAlaska
Perhaps it is time for F9 to consider NYC-ANC (Seward, AK) as a P2P in support of the new Northwest Passage cruises Crystal Cruises for one will being offering Northwest Passage cruises for the first time in 2016. The cruises on the 2016 schedule are said to have sold out in three days at the $15K or more price point. The ports of call from ANC to NYC include Kodiak, Dutch Harbor, and Nome, Alaska; Ulukhaktok, Northwest Territories, Canada; Cambridge Bay and Pond Inlet, Nunavut, Canada; Ilulissat, Sisimiut, and Nuuk, Greenland; and Bar Harbor, Maine; Boston, Newport, R.I and New York.

F9 was said to have pulled down ANC because it relied to much on connection traffic at DEN. You can't get much more point to point than NYC-ANC. I think this city pair fits the ULCC model in that each voyage is said to take thirty days. As more and more cruise ships opt to offer Northwest Passage cruises in their sailing schedules it should demand more non-stop flights.

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Fri Dec 26, 2014 5:39 pm
by RJNUT
Quoting 727tiger (Reply 56):
Looks like the small scheduled charter service at BKG will now offer service to DEN in addition to MDW and HOU. Very small amount of service, though.

the Branson Air Express website also shows Austin , as well, starting in Spring 15

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Fri Dec 26, 2014 9:36 pm
by SLCSFOPDX
Does anyone know how F9 is doing on their SLC-PHX/ORD routes?

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Sun Dec 28, 2014 5:27 am
by WaywardMemphian
Quoting RJNUT (Reply 58):

the Branson Air Express website also shows Austin , as well, starting in Spring 15

Funny Thing, if you go to Melbourne International's webpage, they show Dulles flights operated by Branson Air Express/Elite. I have a feeling, you'll see Melbourne pop up for Branson as well. It's really a straight shot to the Disney area via US192 at about 70 miles.

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Sun Dec 28, 2014 10:46 pm
by mariner
Quoting SLCSFOPDX (Reply 59):
Does anyone know how F9 is doing on their SLC-PHX/ORD routes?

They seem to be doing okay, the website is showing the next half dozen flights SLC-PHX as "sold out." It's the holiday season, of course, and I imagine it'll get a bit quieter in January.

End of April SLC-PHX goes from 6 x weekly to 7 x - daily service.

ORD seems to be pretty good generally, showing some "sold out" flights as well, but again, it's the holidays - ORD-SLC fares drop in January. ORD-MCO - daily - goes to 2 x daily in mid-March for two or three weeks of Spring Break, and ORD-LAS (daily) goes to 10 x weekly end of April.

Similarly CLE-MCO (mostly 2 x) gets a couple more Spring Break frequencies, so that on Tuesday and Saturday it's 3 x daily for that time.

TTN-MCO also gets a 3rd frequency on Sunday/Thursday in mid-March, again for Spring Break, before dropping back to the standard summer schedule at the end of April.

I've no idea what the spring/summer schedule announcements will bring, other than the three new PHL routes, but I won't be surprised if there's some more LAS - and maybe SFO.

mariner

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2014 9:01 pm
by mariner
There hasn't been much said about IAD recently, so I took a look to see what's happening.

IAD was always going to be tricky as a focus city - it's been a bit of a graveyard for LCC's - even Southwest until Frontier arrived - and there was no way of knowing how IAD would react to the ULCC concept.

So this is all based on what is available for booking in May - obviously it doesn't allow for any unannounced service, if there is to be any.

There have been some misses - CLE, CLT and STL - but some of the routes that became "seasonal" are coming back - CVG, MEM, MSP and DTW.

ORD-IAD and IAD-ATL seem to be doing well, and both go back up to daily, and IAD-MCO - which goes to 13 x weekly in May, effective double daily.

The winter snowboard seasonal routes are dropped, of course - CUN, PBI and MIA - but FLL, RSW and TPA stay, although each loses a frequency or two. Same with LAS.

Based on 3 aircraft assigned to IAD, there would appear to be some spare aircraft time, so I wonder if they will add for summer. IAD-SEA would go up against both Alaska and United, and IAD-SFO would go against Virgin America and United - although that doesn't seem to be a concern these days. IAD-PDX would only be against United, at quite high fares.

I suppose the big question mark is will they ever try IAD-DEN - against Southwest?

mariner

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2014 9:17 pm
by masseybrown
Quoting mariner (Reply 62):
I suppose the big question mark is will they ever try IAD-DEN - against Southwest?

They seem successful on UA dominated routes, getting good traffic without provoking retaliation. IAD-SFO seems like a decent risk (VX is charging ~13 cents a mile) or maybe 2x IAD-ORD. AA does not operate the ORD route.

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2014 9:22 pm
by rtalk25
Quoting mariner (Reply 62):
Based on 3 aircraft assigned to IAD, there would appear to be some spare aircraft time, so I wonder if they will add for summer.

I think IAD-DFW is a missing route in it's network. And maybe IAD-IAH and some Texas bound flight.

Quoting mariner (Reply 62):
I suppose the big question mark is will they ever try IAD-DEN - against Southwest?

This one might self compete with it's own DCA-DEN. Or maybe viewed as a 4th frequency.

The transcons are options but fleet intensive. If F9 has room for just a short-haul, I think the WAS-BOS market might be something of interest. From another thread, knope listed the WAS market as BOS' largest market domestically.

I noticed this last summer where up in BWI, Southwest's hub, Southwest was charging high for BWI-PVD and BWI-MHT on last minute (a week before flights) but charging lower on BWI-BOS, because of JetBlue competition. I checked out of IAD, and saw Southwest selling IAD-MDW-PVD cheaper than BWI-PVD also. It must be getting some pax willing to fly into MDW for a lower fare.

With that said, I think the market might be large enough between Washington and Boston area for a possible Frontier take on it, with perhaps an IAD-PVD flight, which would be great for pax in No. Va looking to go to South Shore area of Boston and willing to use PVD as a gateway into BOS area or New England. Sometimes rental car rates by PVD are cheaper than BOS as well, let alone hotel room rates. It might work during the summer swell up of demand between the regions.

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2014 10:07 pm
by enilria
Quoting mariner (Reply 62):
it's been a bit of a graveyard for LCC's

I think I coined that phrase.  
Quoting mariner (Reply 62):
but some of the routes that became "seasonal" are coming back - CVG, MEM, MSP and DTW.

Are they for sale?

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2014 10:15 pm
by mariner
Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 64):
I think IAD-DFW is a missing route in it's network. And maybe IAD-IAH and some Texas bound flight.

Based on how well the two new IAH routes are doing - PHX and SFO - I guess I'd plump for IAH.

Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 64):
The transcons are options but fleet intensive.

I suppose the beauty of transons is - red-eyes. I believe they have fleet utilisation up to 13 hours plus, or will have by May, and red-eyes are a big help there.

Quoting enilria (Reply 65):
Are they for sale?

Yes. As I said:

Quoting mariner (Reply 62):
So this is all based on what is available for booking in May

mariner

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:12 pm
by Legend757
Quoting mariner (Reply 62):
I suppose the big question mark is will they ever try IAD-DEN - against Southwest?

I would think since F9 already has DCA slots, IAD probably won't happen?

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:59 pm
by mariner
Quoting Legend757 (Reply 67):
I would think since F9 already has DCA slots, IAD probably won't happen?
DCA is certainly an important consideration - I doubt they'd want to cannibalise that - but there are a few things:

Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 64):
Or maybe viewed as a 4th frequency.

Plus the fact that they allow connections at IAD, although it would depend on the viability of those connections, I guess. There's also the opportunity for a (summer) red-eye, which would be their earliest arrival in the WAS area. Frontier's first (summer) flight DEN-DCA doesn't arrive until about 12.30 pm.

On the downside, there's also the heavy competition from Southwest to consider to IAD and BWI. Although Southwest's first (non-stop) arrival DEN-IAD isn't until about 3 pm, there's a DEN-BWI which gets in just after 11 am.

I dunno. I just think it's interesting.

mariner

[Edited 2014-12-29 16:01:18]

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Tue Dec 30, 2014 2:38 am
by Frontier14
Quoting mariner (Reply 62):
IAD was always going to be tricky as a focus city - it's been a bit of a graveyard for LCC's - even Southwest until Frontier arrived - and there was no way of knowing how IAD would react to the ULCC concept.

So this is all based on what is available for booking in May - obviously it doesn't allow for any unannounced service, if there is to be any.

There have been some misses - CLE, CLT and STL - but some of the routes that became "seasonal" are coming back - CVG, MEM, MSP and DTW.

ORD-IAD and IAD-ATL seem to be doing well, and both go back up to daily, and IAD-MCO - which goes to 13 x weekly in May, effective double daily.

Good info Mariner. Am a bit surprised though that STL - IAD did not make the grade; as I thought that it could have. Perhaps the timing of the flights had something to do with the filling of the seats. The ORD route being a UA hub to hub demonstrates that F9 can make their ULCC model work in that environment. With that said, the suggestion they may want to try another UA hub-hub (IAD - IAH), just may work too.

I am not so sure the cross country flights are the most functional choices at this point for F9. Lots of fuel and cost for relative lower revenue. However, the comment that a DEN - IAD red-eye may just work from Memorial day through mid - August. I would think there would be no difficulty in filling the seats in the summer travel season. There are currently several east/southeast bound red-eyes out of DEN that are working.

Once the neo's and 321s start to arrive, they may make red-eyes to IAD more attractive and cost effective. As we have seen over the past year, the F9 route map is a moving target. Indigo is not afraid to pull a route should the advance bookings not meet their new route criteria. If F9 can gain a toe hold at IAD (and it sounds like it may have to a limited degree), then they will most likely add new offerings when resources permit.

Frontier 14

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Tue Dec 30, 2014 2:55 am
by rampart
Quoting enilria (Reply 65):
I think I coined that phrase.  

I'm pretty sure it pre-dates you.

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Tue Dec 30, 2014 3:09 am
by enilria
Quoting mariner (Reply 66):
Yes. As I said:

Interesting. I'm a little surprised. We'll see if they stick with the new schedule.

Quoting rampart (Reply 70):
I'm pretty sure it pre-dates you.

With regard to IAD and LCCs I don't think it does.

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Tue Dec 30, 2014 3:14 am
by rampart
Quoting enilria (Reply 71):
With regard to IAD and LCCs I don't think it does.

Sure, whatever you say. I remember reading it before I was an A-net member, going on 10 years now. Were you working that long ago?  

-Rampart

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Tue Dec 30, 2014 2:50 pm
by GentFromAlaska
I think there is a potential niche F9 is not tuned into as much as they should be. That being using the less than daily model in city pairs that warrant large jet service where regional jet service is used excessively. BNA and IAH being two. IAD would be another. Envoy and UA offer ORD-BNA-ORD non-stop several times daily. From a passenger perspective I would certainly use large jet service if my only other choice was a regional jet. UA offers IAD-BNA four or so times daily solely on regional jets.

I know quite a few who fly WN to MDW in lieu of ORD because it is flown with a 737.

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Tue Dec 30, 2014 4:01 pm
by rtalk25
Quoting Frontier14 (Reply 69):
Good info Mariner. Am a bit surprised though that STL - IAD did not make the grade; as I thought that it could have. Perhaps the timing of the flights had something to do with the filling of the seats.

I'm not as surprised as there is new Southwest flights on DCA-STL with average pricing, preference by pax to use/fly into DCA, and because STL isn't that much of a destination market.

I know Southwest tends to fare higher to MDW from eastern US destinations as MDW is the true hub in the WN network. The exception is Southwest faring on BOS area airport-MDW which is often low, but Frontier isn't affected by that. With Chicago being a large market, there is always a way to be cheaper than the WN MDW fare and enough pax willing to buy it.

The 4 summer seasonal IAD markets all happen to be markets where WN doesn't have nonstop to DCA and coincidentally are DL markets (or former DL hubs - MEM and CVG), where DL prices high and DL doesn't even remotely fare match

[Edited 2014-12-30 08:01:45]

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Wed Dec 31, 2014 8:12 pm
by Frontier14
F9 began its' MIA service on 12/20/14 and it appears that the operational performance thus far has been anything but acceptable. Looking at the Flightaware times, the new service has been consistently late on dep and arr. nearly every day. Not the best way to get the MIA pax acquainted with Frontier.

Frontier 14

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Thu Jan 01, 2015 12:29 am
by GentFromAlaska
Quoting Frontier14 (Reply 75):
F9 began its' MIA service on 12/20/14 and it appears that the operational performance thus far has been anything but acceptable. Looking at the Flightaware times, the new service has been consistently late on dep and arr. nearly every day.

Sir are you monitoring any specific city pairs. DEN has seen -15 Fahrenheit temperatures which could be causing deicing delays. ORD is another snow and cold prone city. There is a lot of Winter still to come. LGA is usually late for no other reason that it is LGA.

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Thu Jan 01, 2015 12:43 am
by Frontier14
Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 76):

Sir are you monitoring any specific city pairs. DEN has seen -15 Fahrenheit temperatures which could be causing deicing delays. ORD is another snow and cold prone city. There is a lot of Winter still to come. LGA is usually late for no other reason that it is LGA.

Yes, I was aware of the very cold weather issues. Added to it that they are short of available pilots during the entire week going into New Years. My point however was that the MIA operation was in the hole and wasn't a good show for attracting pax in the city.

Frontier 14

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:03 am
by enilria
Quoting rampart (Reply 72):
Sure, whatever you say. I remember reading it before I was an A-net member, going on 10 years now. Were you working that long ago?  

usaviation.com?   Happy New Year!

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Thu Jan 01, 2015 9:35 pm
by mariner
Looking at STL, and based on what is available for booking in May, the two seasonal Florida routes - FLL and RSW - go away at the end of April.

In the plus column, STL-MCO and STL-LAS both go up to daily. STL-DEN appears to gain one frequency, to 9 x weekly.

I had not realised that STL-CUN is up to 6 x weekly and stays at that, through May at least, with a couple of the May flights already sold out - Apple, I guess.

No clues yet as to whether the summer routes - STL-SFO and STL-PDX - will come back. I'd be mildly surprised to see SFO return - I thought it was the weaker of the two and now Southwest has jumped on the route - but PDX seemed to do well.

NB: Again, this obviously doesn't include any additional summer service announcements or potential additional summer frequencies - it's just what can be booked now.

mariner

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Sat Jan 03, 2015 1:02 am
by SANFan
Quoting mariner (Reply 79):
No clues yet as to whether the summer routes - STL-SFO and STL-PDX - will come back. I'd be mildly surprised to see SFO return - I thought it was the weaker of the two and now Southwest has jumped on the route - but PDX seemed to do well.

But remember that AS has announced daily PDX-STL service (to begin July 1.) That may rain on Frontier's plans.

bb

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Sat Jan 03, 2015 7:42 pm
by mariner
And there's Apple.

It's long been speculated her that the Frontier/Apple contract would be reduced - and it has - but Apple itself appears to be changing, moving more towards Capacity Purchase Agreements (CPA) rather than its own nominated flights. This is an increasingly common theme among the vacation packagers.

Apple has not replaced Frontier non-stops on either SLC-CUN or IND-CUN. Since both can be booked as packages on Apple - SLC-CUN on Delta or AeroMexico, both via MEX, and IND-CUN on United, via IAH - I assume they have CPA's with those airlines.

Following Frontier's departure, DEN-SJO can be still be booked as a package on Apple - as a one-stop on Spirit, via FLL - but DEN-PUJ is shown on the Apple schedule as a Frontier non-stop for June and July.

Other stations continue - IAD-CUN is scheduled by Apple through the Frontier booking window, and they offer (Frontier) flights PHL-CUN and PHL-PUJ through December 2015.

There are still Apple strongholds - DEN, ORD, STL, DFW, etc - but the nature of the business appears to be changing quite quickly.

mariner

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Mon Jan 05, 2015 8:18 pm
by rtalk25
Anyone know how F9 is holding up on ATL-MCO? I noticed Southwest fares are mainly in the $100-109 range one-way for all fares two weeks out and February and forward. Even Delta's booking engine is showing $99 fares. Frontier's fares appear steady at $99 one-way, with some days of higher fares and this includes no bag and potential of a change fee.

Southwest's within 2 week fare window is higher, but I can't imagine there is that many last minute leisure flying pax that will opt for the F9 pricing and single flight. Were fares higher prior to F9 adding this route?

The drive is under 8 hours making the ULCC viability worse. I noticed it's not extended in May. Could this be pulled even before April 28, if it's underperforming?

[Edited 2015-01-05 12:25:58]

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Mon Jan 05, 2015 10:27 pm
by Buddys747
F9 flight 832/833 , the final MDT-DEN flight is running about two hours late this evening. It is extremely sad to see this service go away. Here's hoping some day it will return.

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Tue Jan 06, 2015 12:06 am
by enilria
Confirmation that TTN-BNA/STL/IND/MKE/CLE/NAS are deleted. TTN-CVG has no resumption date planned.

Clearly the opening of PHL is linked to the shrinking of TTN. Not sure which is chicken and which is egg. I guess I'd say TTN was Republic's strategy and PHL is NK's and F9 is now parroting NK's strategy. I guess this means that TTN was never as successful as some thought.

http://www.nj.com/mercer/index.ssf/2...nations_due_to_lack_of_demand.html

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Tue Jan 06, 2015 12:39 am
by mke717spotter
Quoting enilria (Reply 84):
Confirmation that TTN-BNA/STL/IND/MKE/CLE/NAS are deleted.

Can't say I'm surprised that its come to this. There's no way that all of the TTN routes were going to have enough demand to be profitable, so I guess it somewhat makes sense to offer them on a trial basis. From a customer standpoint, TTN needs an upgrade bad, but at the rate F9 is dropping flights it might be too late.

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Tue Jan 06, 2015 1:09 am
by mariner
Quoting enilria (Reply 84):
Clearly the opening of PHL is linked to the shrinking of TTN.

Now I'm really scratching my head. None of the dropped TTN routes are announced for PHL, so how could PHL be affecting them?

Double daily PHL-MCO doesn't seem to have affected (almost) double daily TTN-MCO at all, and the fares are often a tad higher at TTN-MCO.

Frontier is adding additional flights TTN-MCO for Spring Break - but not for PHL-MCO.

mariner

[Edited 2015-01-05 17:16:37]

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Tue Jan 06, 2015 1:16 am
by pilotfox
Too bad about the MKE-TTN flight going away. I flew both ways in December and the plane was 70% full. GF took the second to last flight and it only had a few empty seats. I guess when they were selling tickets at under $50/each way they didn't stand a chance.

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Tue Jan 06, 2015 4:50 am
by GentFromAlaska
Quoting mke717spotter (Reply 85):
There's no way that all of the TTN routes were going to have enough demand to be profitable,

The flying public has no control over what the airlines charge for their fares. BNA-TTN had a 89% load factor often. Most airlines would love to have those kind of numbers.

Well at least F9 didn't give BNA the canned response which goes something like the airplane could be better utilized elsewhere.

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Tue Jan 06, 2015 4:54 am
by mariner
Quoting pilotfox (Reply 87):
I guess when they were selling tickets at under $50/each way they didn't stand a chance.

But it isn't $50 each way for most people. The ULCC model is based heavily on ancillary revenue - and the law of averages.

You may not have a taken a bag, but many people do, and that immediately raises the fare. Many will also take a carry on bag as well, which raises the fare again. Seat selection and a soda - it all adds up.

One of the great paradoxes that Allegiant discovered is that pax resent paying too much for the base fare, but will spend up big on the ancillaries.

mariner

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Tue Jan 06, 2015 5:15 am
by PlanesNTrains
Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 57):
Perhaps it is time for F9 to consider NYC-ANC (Seward, AK) as a P2P in support of the new Northwest Passage cruises Crystal Cruises

Hard to picture Crystal aligning with an ULCC for passenger conveyance, but anything's possible.

-Dave

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Tue Jan 06, 2015 2:45 pm
by GentFromAlaska
Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 90):
Hard to picture Crystal aligning with an ULCC for passenger conveyance, but anything's possible.

I tend to agree; if you can afford 15K to 20K for a cruise you can probably afford first class although those amenities continue to degraded. My thought at the time was prices will eventually come down as more and more cruise lines add this type of cruise. This maiden voyage (lets hope it's not another Titanic) was said to have sold out in three days.

It was more a suggestion for non-stop pax service between NYC-ANC-NYC of which I can find none. Eventually somebody is going to do it. Citing the critter theme why not F9. AS as last check flies SEA to EWR; it may even be ANC-SEA-EWR. I believe several Asian 747 freighters fly ANC-JFK from the far east using ANC as a refueling stop but that a separate topic.

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Tue Jan 06, 2015 2:49 pm
by GentFromAlaska
Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 90):
Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 91):

I wanted to add it may be something for Apple Vacations to tackle; they seem to have a good rapport with F9

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Tue Jan 06, 2015 4:17 pm
by enilria
Quoting mariner (Reply 86):

Quoting enilria (Reply 84):
Clearly the opening of PHL is linked to the shrinking of TTN.

Now I'm really scratching my head. None of the dropped TTN routes are announced for PHL, so how could PHL be affecting them?

When PHL was opened many people, including moi, said that it was inconsistent with their plans for TTN. TTN was growing like a weed and adding new destinations. If that was all going well it made no sense to open up PHL and potentially damage it. Now we probably know that TTN was not doing well to a lot of the destinations they had added which now makes it much more understandable why they would hedge their bets with PHL.

Conversely, though, opening PHL could have incited US/AA to treat F9 differently at TTN pricing-wise and thus sabotage TTN.

So, we don't know whether it is chicken or egg. Either TTN was stumbling and F9 launched PHL or launching PHL hurt TTN through the change in how US/AA treated them. Chicken or egg, but definitely linked.

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Tue Jan 06, 2015 4:37 pm
by PlanesNTrains
Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 91):
It was more a suggestion for non-stop pax service between NYC-ANC-NYC of which I can find none. Eventually somebody is going to do it. Citing the critter theme why not F9. AS as last check flies SEA to EWR; it may even be ANC-SEA-EWR. I believe several Asian 747 freighters fly ANC-JFK from the far east using ANC as a refueling stop but that a separate topic.

Hey, anything's possible.   Might as well be F9.

-Dave

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Tue Jan 06, 2015 5:07 pm
by GentFromAlaska
Quoting enilria (Reply 93):
TTN was not doing well to a lot of the destinations they had added which now makes it much more understandable why they would hedge their bets with PHL.

You can't help but think about the noise lawsuit BRAAM filed against TTN and the FAA may have something to do with PHL. Most of these types of disagreements are not about who wins or looses but how to survive without the hate and discontent and not rip each other head off in the process.

Quoting enilria (Reply 84):
Confirmation that TTN-BNA/STL/IND/MKE/CLE/NAS are deleted. TTN-CVG has no resumption date planned.

The fact that we really haven't seen any new market announcements from TTN to replace those taken down above is part of the equation. IMO TTN was beyond maxed out base on infrastructure. While I do think TTN is here to stay Indigo likes larger airports.

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Tue Jan 06, 2015 6:34 pm
by mariner
Quoting enilria (Reply 93):
When PHL was opened many people, including moi, said that it was inconsistent with their plans for TTN. TTN was growing like a weed and adding new destinations. If that was all going well it made no sense to open up PHL and potentially damage it.

I know I'm wasting my time again - nothing I say will change your opinion - but for the benefit of others here, there are several things at work.

TTN has always had physical limitations - its runway length and its terminal size. Ultimately, Frontier could not expand there much more (any?) more, the terminal was almost literally bustin' at the seams last summer.

There were discussions about this in the TTN thread, and the consensus was that TTN had pretty much reached it's practical, physical limit. If they wanted to add more - new routes, or frequency to the best destinations, TTN-CLT or TTN-MSP going to daily, for example - then it would be tight, and maybe even too tight and something would have to give.

So something has given. As at many places, some TTN routes do better than others. Dropping CMH and MSY had nothing to do with PHL, which had not started then, there were not even hints of PHL at that time.

Then again, Indigo didn't buy Frontier for what it is - but for what it could become. Some were surprised that Indigo kept TTN at all, maybe you were one of them. Indigo has kept it, but on Indigo's terms.

Across the network, Indigo isn't as keen as old Frontier was on less than daily frequency. They still happen (Florida particularly in the off-season) but most new routes start as daily, or go to it pretty quickly, as at STL with MCO and LAS. It's not a hard and fast rule, especially to Florida, but it is there.

But why keep TTN-CLT and TTN-MSP at 4 x when they can support daily, for the sake of keeping TTN-STL, which didn't do all that well?

We are watching the network being radially and even ruthlessly restructured. I have no idea where this restructure will eventually lead, but PHL and TTN is not an issue for me, just as serving two NY airports, and sometimes three, isn't a problem for other airlines.

PHL is a huge metropolitan area which cannot be adequately served just from TTN, if only because of runway length and terminal size. If they wanted to start TTN-DEN, for example, or TTN-LAS or TTN-CUN, they couldn't happen - the ol' laws of physics again.

So I'd just point out - again - that they are adding frequencies to TTN-MCO for Spring Break, but not at PHL-MCO. But if TTN had not been not pruned, if the terminal were still jam-packed, perhaps they couldn't do this.

Then again, I'm pretty sure I recall you saying that PHL would be a flop, too.

mariner

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Tue Jan 06, 2015 6:50 pm
by GentFromAlaska
Have we heard anymore about F9 employees at DEN being replaced with contracted staff which would mirror the outstations. I'm wondering if the significant decrease in fuel Av-gas prices may have slowed the plans to replace employees on the back burner

Are there any other thoughts about the lower fuel cost and the positive effect on the bottom line. The ULCC model is not one that they can lower prices any more than they already are.

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Tue Jan 06, 2015 7:14 pm
by rtalk25
Quoting enilria (Reply 93):
When PHL was opened many people, including moi, said that it was inconsistent with their plans for TTN.

When PHL was announced, I figured that the most of the announced routes were replacements for ILG not TTN. There was the announcement of PHL-ATL/CLT/ORD even though those didn't launch. Maybe F9 changed it's decision since that announcement. There is never a follow up press release when it changes it decision. Spirit started PHL-ORD. Frontier also extended the schedule with TTN having ATL/CLT/ORD daily. It might have figured those also out of PHL would dilute TTN.

While ATL is a large market and good distance by drive, CLT might not be enough of either and PHL/TTN-CLT as both dailies might be overcapacity for two low fare flights. Many drive to North Carolina, or can get on the high frequency low fare flights out of BWI from US or WN, as US matches WN down there.

But who knows - maybe F9 will actually proceed forward with those 3 cities out of PHL, or it does something different (maybe something cool like PHX, LAS or SFO, LAX area transcons) that it can't offer from TTN anyways.

On another note - I wonder why F9 hasn't tried to attain a couple of EWR slot pairs the same way PEX did. I don't think PHF would be the market, but maybe F9 could consider a route like EWR-YNG which can be attractive to Cleveland/Pittsburgh and the Trenton/Philly markets where F9 already has a base of flying pax, although not technically for Pittsburgh but it can bring the brand slowly over there.

It could be the replacement of CLE-LGA/TTN. I believe the Port Authority would grant F9 slots to unserved routes. I'd think it'd offer 1x daily to any destination and not 2x like PEX did nonetheless. Maybe the other slot pair can be used for UST, although that might cut into TTN-UST sales.

[Edited 2015-01-06 11:17:14]

RE: New Frontier Part 49

Posted: Tue Jan 06, 2015 7:29 pm
by mariner
Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 98):
When PHL was announced, I figured that the most of the announced routes were replacements for ILG not TTN. There was the announcement of PHL-ATL/CLT/ORD even though those didn't launch.

They've appeared on the pdf version of the route map. I assume a formal announcement, dates and times, is yet to come, as Frontier said.

mariner

[Edited 2015-01-06 11:50:00]