Quoting mcoatc (Reply 3): Unfortunately, trucks do not help with time-sensitive air shipments, especially now that so many items from Amazon come with free 2 day shipping.

FIrst, the two have plenty of lift, except for the last few days when charter fills it out fine.

The issue last year was sorting and weather delays at the start of the rush period, which UPS never dug out of, combined with inadequate space to park during Irops, combined with a decision not to deliver on Christmas day. There were minimal issues at FedEx; although there is anecdotal stuff in some markets, really the issue was almost-entirely UPS.

This year, Amazon has cut its volumes to FedEx and UPS by something like 75%. In major markets, they now have their own line-haul between centers, and their own service that hauls from the centers to the Post Office, which does the last mile. I got a Next Day package that way last week. The Postal Service has stepped up, and is doing great for them, anecdotes from unreasonable folks to the contrary. More than 80 percent of my Amazon is coming by USPS. Rarely, a drop-shipped item will come from the manufacturer by UPS or FedEx or FedEx Ground. Similarly, WalMart is moving almost everything through FedEx Ground when possible, and FedEx Express in the rare instance when it's necessary. About half of their ground shipments are coming by FedEx Smartpost, which has really stepped up its operation, which gives the last mile to the mailman. Finally, a lot of E-Commerce folks are using services like NewGistics for as much as possible, which again does the line-haul to its own sorting centers and between those centers, then dispatches shipments from there to post offices. NewGistics uses trucks leased from Ryder and staffed by Ryder-employee drivers, running a proprietary line-haul network managed by Ryder -- i.e. outsourced to an expert company, and very, very scalable. I think these three trends this year should take a lot of load off of the FedEx/UPS networks, giving them room to take the extra business coming from the overall growth in E-Commerce.

In short, there is a lot of e-commerce delivery that's moving in unlabelled trucks for Amazon, Walmart and customers of NewGistics. That should help a lot this year.

[Edited 2014-11-27 00:43:04]

[Edited 2014-11-27 00:44:03]

Quoting blueflyer (Reply 13): For one thing, it doesn't make sense financially for FedEx and UPS to have enough aircraft in-house to cover the peak Christmas demand if a significant number of these aircraft will sit idle the remaining 11 months of the year. They have the fleet they need for these 11 months. For the 12th month, they increase the number of turns per aircraft, they fill each aircraft to maximum volume, and they charter additional lift.

FedEx also has certain older, less-efficient aircraft that mostly sit around, but get ramped up for the rush season.

[Edited 2014-11-27 00:45:30]

Quoting md11sdf (Reply 15): So, this busy Christmas Season, WHO will we be seeing in Louisville to carry the extra volume? I can't wait to find out!!

Well, as DHL continues to screw its most-efficient air services provider, ATSG, that company's carriers have worked diligently to find wet and dry lessees and ad-hoc business for their 48 767s and 8 757s. (Four of those 757s are ATI combis, which are well-utilized and increasingly-utilized by the US military.) The CEO of ATSG has said that all its available aircraft are fully-committed during the holiday season, so I expect that you will see ATI and ABX 767s, and perhaps some 757s, operating for UPS and perhaps for FedEx. DHL uses about a third of the ATSG aircraft, and others are on wet and dry leases elsewhere, so it will be interesting to see how many aircraft will be on UPS/FedEx assignments, but it's at least 5 and probably closer to 10. ATI used to fly DC8s in the UPS holiday mix, but those are all parked now.

Atlas is operating 767s these days, so perhaps you will see some Atlas 767s employed, as well as what will certainly be some of their 747s for UPS.

Kalitta Air is obviously going to be in the mix with 747s, and in years past we have seen some Kalitta Charter (Doug Kalitta's airline) 727s used.

You left Murray Air off the list. They operated DC8s for UPS during the holiday season. They are now National Airlines, and have a couple of 757s and 3 remaining 747s. Perhaps we will see some of them...

You did mention Southern, which operates some 737 (4) and 777 (4) freighters for DHL. I assume those are fully-committed for the holiday, even though their web site seems to suggest that they are available for ad-hoc charter. (The snazzy Southern web site calls he 737-400 the "bestselling air freighter in the history of aviation". Um...uh...No. Laughable, actually, but I'm sure that AEI is happy that it finally found a few customers for its conversion...) They still have three 747-400 freighters, having parked all their 747-200s. Cargo 360 merged with these guys a few years ago. Perhaps we will see one or more Southern 747s in the UPS holiday network.

Quoting wrenchon727 (Reply 37): Probably fling more usps (amazon) day freight.

There will be a ton of Everyman-sending-Priority-Mail-stuff-to-Grandma on FX's day runs, but very little Amazon. Amazon, in major markets, is going its own line-haul between distribution centers and then from distribution center to the USPS DDU. If it's coming via USPS, all the USPS is going to do is the last mile, as opposed to the early days of Amazon where they just sent everything Priority Mail.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 40): The idea behind the distribution centers is to minimize using shippers like FX for anywhere they can get overnight on truck. SEA FX doesn't send really anything Amazon closer than California or Montana.

You're right. I am a terrible example because I am in NYC, and most of the stuff I want, other than stuff being drop-shipped from the manufacturer, is available in one of several warehouses (Delaware, Indiana, New Jersey, etc.) within less-than-12-hours' driving distance for Amazon's line-haul. Heck, they did a Next Day delivery to me using the line-haul-and-USPS system the other day, and it was in my hands by 11am. (That's a big benefit for me of the USPS last-mile delivery. FedEx and UPS typically deliver residential Amazon in the afternoon in NYC and Long Island (or 6pm for UPS). USPS gets it to us in the morning, usually.) For those with fewer distribution centers clustered nearby, or less-encompassing centers, some airlift is going to be necessary.

The Amazon that has disappeared is the UPS Ground and FedEx Ground stuff...

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 40): At SEA, Amazon is the biggest shipper for FX overnight and 2-day, dwarfing anyone else and it's not close.

And for what it's worth, WalMart, which continues to grow rapidly in the online space, seems over the last year to have shifted almost everything to FedEx Express and FedEx Home Delivery/FedEx Smartpost. It is extremely convenient, and saves a lot of money, for a Manhattanite like me to order basics (everything from cold medicine to cereal to paper towel to drain opener to peanut butter to coffee) from Walmart online. It comes quickly, it costs a heck of a lot less than in any store in the City, there is much, much more selection than stores in the City, and there's no transportation cost involved, which there would be if I had to go get it. A lot of that used to come by UPS. Now, it's almost all coming by the two FedEx companies, with Home Delivery giving way to Smartpost in a lot of circumstances. And Smartpost has really upped their game, although they are not as consistent at moving their stuff through their center and to the Post Office as Amazon Fulfillment Services's in-house network has become. Smartpost stuff still occasionally disappears into the ether for a day or two while being "in transit" from Edison, NJ to Manhattan or Long Island, then magically reappears. I assume that it's sitting in a trailer that has been pulled away from the loading dock (and thus "departed"), but hasn't been hauled away from the facility.

I'm looking forward to seeing a lot of WalMart moving on FedEx Express during the last couple of weeks of the season, because you guys really didn't have any significant issues last year, and certainly got it done for our family.

Quoting bw50505 (Reply 47): FedEx has a Kalitta 742 on MEM-HNL today. It was one of two CKS 742 that arrived in MEM for the cargo ramp up, what route is the other to be used on?

Today it's SJU.