PA515
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Sat Nov 29, 2014 10:20 am

Quoting SXI899 (Reply 73):
Would be interesting to work out how much spare capacity NZ would have in their B772 fleet to be able to operate a potential new route, and at what sort of frequency.

Did a spreadsheet for the Air NZ schedule 15 Jan 2015 (peak season with AKL-SIN operating). Eight 77E's but quite a bit of slack. Eight aircraft are only in use Mon 2350 to Tue 0530 and Fri 2350 to Sun 0530, and only seven aircraft from some time in February when OKG is taken out for the upgrade treatment.

Three 789's arrive in the second half of 2015 (NZC Jul 15, NZD Aug 15 and NZH Oct 15) and three 763's leave in the second half of 2015.

What has been announced is that AKL-PVG goes to a daily 789 from 25 Oct 15 and AKL-NRT a daily 789 from 23 Oct 15. That uses three 789's daily, and AKL-PER makes four daily but with no down time.

AKL-PER could revert to daily 77E's. The Mon and Fri AKL-PVG 77E replaced is Mon 2355 to Wed 0650 and Fri 2355 to Sun 0650. In the second half of 2015 AKL-RAR-LAX changes from 763 to 77E. Presently AKL-RAR-LAX-RAR-AKL is Sun 1730 to Tue 1150.

It's complicated, but enough 789 or 77E should be available for daily to a new US destination that displaces some of the present extra LAX or SFO 77E peak season services. But Air NZ would probably not start with daily flights.

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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Sat Nov 29, 2014 11:17 am

Quoting Zkpilot (Thread starter):
IAH is a shorter flight and provides coverage of the entire Eastern half of the USA so that is my prediction.
Quoting drerx7 (Reply 1):

This would be interesting. ..I guess out of the three destinations I'd say IAH is the most likely
Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 2):
IAH is not only a shorter flight than ORD but also offers a bigger range of onward connections.
Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 4):

If anything, it would likely have to be IAH

IAH is the only destination in the USA that makes sense for NZ. NZ serves star hub SFO, QF can't even make SFO work a few days a week, yet NZ had started with less than daily service & now is almost 2x daily. Except SFO can't offer all the one stop connections to the Mid-West, SE USA, Caribbean, Mexico, Central America (with PTY star hub)
and the Northern part of S. America that IAH can offer. Since UA isn't going to re-start AKL services, NZ should do it.

Quoting mariner (Reply 79):
I understand it's a Star Alliance hub, but I don't think it's a good idea to base a route on lower yielding connections

That is what NZ does via SFO & that has been an ever increasing market since they started the service years ago.

Quoting mariner (Reply 79):
I'm scratching my head as to why many Kiwis would want to go to Houston. It's not a great tourist town, weather in summer is brutal, and New Zealand has very little connection to the oil industry

I don't think they would, New Zealand is way pettier & just a nicer place, but I can see Kiwis wanting to visit the Eastern half of the country for various reasons.

Quoting gasman (Reply 82):
Australia's population is five times what ours is; TB terminal at LAX is close to capacity and Mariner's point about the resource industries is also valid. If there was a horticultural and sheep farming cauldron of activity in the US it would make sense for NZ to fly there direct, but in the absence of that..... having more than one entry portal into the US would only seem to divide a finite market and therefore reduce economies of scale

You don't think they raise sheep in Texas? With NZ 3x daily to LAX, SFO sometimes 2x daily, IAH seems a logical choice.

Quoting concordianSYD (Reply 97):
How about AKL-IAH with an ORD 'tag' similar to QF's JFK ex LAX and EK's AKL ex SYD/MEL/BNE

Why fly their 789 with a myriad of crew considerations, on a route they can't carry anything but stop over traffic on, when they can hand that passenger off to UA for the leg to ORD on one of their dozen plus daily departures?
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Sat Nov 29, 2014 3:01 pm

Quoting 777ER (Reply 99):
I can't really see how a AKL-IAH-ORD service would work since NZ can't pick up any IAH-ORD-IAH pax due to the USA law of protecting their lower standards airlines from far better competition.

You mean like how New Zealand allows Eighth Freedom flying for anyone who wants it? Oh, wait . . .

Quoting 777ER (Reply 99):
I could see a AKL-LAX/SFO-ORD service or maybe a AKL-IAH-YYZ service. Lets face it, who would want to fly UA/AA/DL etc if you could fly NZ from IAH-ORD or QF from LAX-JFK?

Continuing to YYZ might actually make some sense, as they could carry local traffic. Is NZ close enough with AC that they might work something out that would permit use of the Terminal 1 preclearance facility?
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Sat Nov 29, 2014 5:46 pm

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 101):
That is what NZ does via SFO & that has been an ever increasing market since they started the service years ago.


As above, I can think of many reasons why Kiwis on vacation would go to San Francisco and there has been strong contact throughout this country's history since the Gold Rush days I can't say the same of Houston.

All of the recent Air NZ strategy has been directed at Pacific Rim:

http://asianz.org.nz/our-work/busine...air-nz-focuses-asia-pacific-region

"Air New Zealand tightens focus on Asia Pacific region

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...ling-in-pacific-rim-expansion.html

"Air N.Z. CEO Sees Sales Growth Doubling in Pacific Rim Expansion"

I've never thought of Houston as "Pacific Rim", but - maybe.

mariner

[Edited 2014-11-29 09:54:05]
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Sat Nov 29, 2014 6:14 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 103):
can't say the same of Houston.

Nobody wants to visit us Houston folk, oh well, it's their loss....
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Sat Nov 29, 2014 7:12 pm

Quoting thomasphoto60 (Reply 104):

duh .... It's a flight from middle earth to middle of nowhere  

/s
 
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mariner
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Sat Nov 29, 2014 8:00 pm

Quoting thomasphoto60 (Reply 104):
Nobody wants to visit us Houston folk, oh well, it's their loss....

Don't take it personally.  

It's just that there are very few links between NZ and Houston, historical or otherwise. As above, Kiwi links to San Francisco go back to the Gold Rush days, when many of the miners came to NZ from SF where the California Gold Rush was starting to peter out, at least for the independent miners. It's why the Chinese first came here as well.

In those days, San Francisco was the nearest (English speaking) port of contact across the Pacific to America. The port of Long Beach didn't really exist until the 1920's.

But Kiwis are a pragmatic lot. We're a tiny population at the arse end of the world and we have to make do with - and celebrate - what we've got.

If the management of Air NZ decided that the value of connections at IAH outweighed the O&D and started the route, then Kiwis would probably use it.

They might not spend long in Houston, at least in summer - they'd probably get the first flight out to Colorado - but I think they would use it.

mariner

[Edited 2014-11-29 12:18:26]
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Sat Nov 29, 2014 8:41 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 106):
Don't take it personally.

Don't take personally at all, merely a tounge-n-cheek comment.
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Sat Nov 29, 2014 9:55 pm

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 101):
aribbean, Mexico, Central America (with PTY star hub)

AKL-PTY (yes I know it is probably not realistically doable under current ETOPS rules) would absolutely kill it. The power of the CM hub never ceases to amaze me. you can get everywhere from BOS to HAV to SJO to POS to CCS to EZE.
All the Euro carriers seems to be doing well there despite the relatively small O&D.

Not to mention the GoP would definitely put up a rev guarantee.
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Sat Nov 29, 2014 10:01 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 98):
Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 93):
All major airlines have dozens of routes they only operate once a day or even 2 or 3 times a week, where most of the traffic on the aircraft is connecting. KLM is a good example.

You don't need to involve KLM - why not stick with the airline we're discussing?

Connections - form/to Australia, eg - are important to Air New Zealand, I've never denied that. But O&D traffic - from AKL to somewhere - is usually more valuable to the airline than connecting traffic.

I expect NZ's percentage of O&D traffic to/from New Zealand is much higher than KL's to/from the Netherlands. About 70%of KL's traffic is 6th freedom.
 
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Sat Nov 29, 2014 10:29 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 102):
You mean like how New Zealand allows Eighth Freedom flying for anyone who wants it? Oh, wait .

What do you mean "Oh, wait"? NZ do allow eighth freedom, just ask JQ, VA(in past). Most people don't realise that little NZ has pretty well the most open economy in the world. Rodger Douglas did the sums decades ago and the country decided to open up big time.

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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Sat Nov 29, 2014 10:46 pm

Quoting gemuser (Reply 110):
Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 102):
You mean like how New Zealand allows Eighth Freedom flying for anyone who wants it? Oh, wait .

What do you mean "Oh, wait"? NZ do allow eighth freedom, just ask JQ, VA(in past).

Isn't that restricted to carriers based in Australia only which can operate domestic services in New Zealand (and vice versa)? The Australia-New Zealand single market bilateral is similar to the EU single market agreement where any carrier based in the EU can operate anywhere within the area, including domestic flights in other EU countries.

Can't recall New Zealand granting 7th, 8th or 9th freedom rights to non-Australian carriers.
 
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Sat Nov 29, 2014 10:54 pm

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 109):
I expect NZ's percentage of O&D traffic to/from New Zealand is much higher than KL's to/from the Netherlands. About 70%of KL's traffic is 6th freedom.

It may be. Dubai, for example, is 70% connecting traffic, just as Singapore is connection heavy.

AKL is a genuine hub for connecting traffic to/from the Americas, the Islands and Australia, and that traffic is very important to Air NZ.

None of that changes the fact that O&D traffic is usually more valuable to an airline, for some of the reasons outlined above and especially when the traffic is connecting to another airline - unless there is a JV.

mariner

[Edited 2014-11-29 15:00:48]
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Sat Nov 29, 2014 11:03 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 112):
Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 109):
I expect NZ's percentage of O&D traffic to/from New Zealand is much higher than KL's to/from the Netherlands. About 70%of KL's traffic is 6th freedom.

It may be. Dubai, for example, is 70% connecting traffic, just as Singapore is connection heavy.

AMS traffic in total (all carriers) is less than 70% O&D since traffic on most of the dozens of carriers serving AMS other than KL is largely O&D (except probably DL due to their joint venture with KL). KL in isolation is about 70% connecting.
 
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Sat Nov 29, 2014 11:05 pm

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 108):
(yes I know it is probably not realistically doable under current ETOPS rules)

This is not a problem. The New Zealand regulator has clearly defined rules that permit NZ to operate up to EDTO 330.-min.
 
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Sat Nov 29, 2014 11:20 pm

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 113):
AMS traffic in total (all carriers) is less than 70% O&D since traffic on most of the dozens of carriers serving AMS other than KL is largely O&D (except probably DL due to their joint venture with KL). KL in isolation is about 70% connecting.

As I said - it may be.Connecting traffic is very important to some airlines and at some airports - O&D remains more valuable, if they can get it.

Some places are natural hubs - some aren't. American tried to set up artificial hubs - RDU and BNA - but they were dismantled.

Finnair has little choice but to have a connecting hub at HEL, with only limited success:

http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...-as-revenue-outlook-weakens-171344

"Finnair struggles to convert Europe-Asia niche into sustainable profit as revenue outlook weakens"

But all of this is a long, long way from New Zealand.

mariner

[Edited 2014-11-29 15:23:03]
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Sun Nov 30, 2014 4:33 am

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 111):
Isn't that restricted to carriers based in Australia only which can operate domestic services in New Zealand (and vice versa)?

AFAIK, no, on the other hand I could be wrong. NZ is a really open economy.
Of course nobody in their right mind would want to operate 8th freedom in NZ at the moment, a country of 4-5 million people with an incredibly strong local airline and a getting stronger Trans Tasman JQ.

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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Sun Nov 30, 2014 7:10 am

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 102):
Quoting 777ER (Reply 99):I can't really see how a AKL-IAH-ORD service would work since NZ can't pick up any IAH-ORD-IAH pax due to the USA law of protecting their lower standards airlines from far better competition. You mean like how New Zealand allows Eighth Freedom flying for anyone who wants it? Oh, wait . . .

Have you heard of JQ New Zealand domestic ops? Previously DJ and QF operated here also.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 111):
Can't recall New Zealand granting 7th, 8th or 9th freedom rights to non-Australian carriers.

I haven't heard of any airline (apart from Aussie airlines) wanting to fly domestic routes or carry domestic pax between say CHC-AKL as a tag on service. I'm sure they would be considered, considering JQ currently operating here.
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Mon Dec 01, 2014 1:06 am

Korean did AKLCHC with MD11 and SQ had triangular sinchc akl for a short while with 343s iirc.
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Mon Dec 01, 2014 1:54 am

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 102):
You mean like how New Zealand allows Eighth Freedom flying for anyone who wants it? Oh, wait . . .
Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 111):
Isn't that restricted to carriers based in Australia only which can operate domestic services in New Zealand (and vice versa)? The Australia-New Zealand single market bilateral is similar to the EU single market agreement where any carrier based in the EU can operate anywhere within the area, including domestic flights in other EU countries.

Can't recall New Zealand granting 7th, 8th or 9th freedom rights to non-Australian carriers.

No carriers have requested it, but we have reciprocal cabotage agreements under MALIAT with Singapore and Brunei (and I think Chile as well, although I might be wrong) granting the following:

Quote:
Article 2 - Grant of Rights

In addition to the rights granted in paragraphs 1 and 2 of Article 2 of the Agreement, and notwithstanding paragraphs 3, 4 and 5 of Article 2 of the Agreement, each Party grants to the other Parties the rights for the airlines designated by the other Parties in accordance with Article 3 of the Agreement to perform, in accordance with the terms of their designations:
1.scheduled and charter international air transportation in passenger and combination services between the territory of the party granting the rights and any point or points; and
2.scheduled and charter international air transportation between points in the territory of the Party granting the rights.

We have a similar agreement in place with the United Kingdom. And there's ANZA, which others have already talked about.

New Zealand, for the most part, is willing to trade reciprocal 8th and 9th freedom rights with any country. Unfortunately, the US is unwilling.

Texan

Edit: Chile did sign the MALIAT Protocol, as did the Cook Islands. The United States signed the MALIAT agreement granting Open Skies, but refused to sign the Protocol. The Protocol is open to any party that has signed the agreement. This includes Samoa, Tonga, the United States, and, for cargo only, Mongolia.

[Edited 2014-11-30 18:03:34]
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PA515
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Mon Dec 01, 2014 1:58 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 106):
It's just that there are very few links between NZ and Houston, historical or otherwise.

Peter Snell has lived there for years. An inaugural guest photo op.

Oops, he lives in Dallas. But they could give him a free trip anyway.

Quoting aerorobnz (Reply 118):
Korean did AKLCHC with MD11 and SQ had triangular sinchc akl for a short while with 343s iirc.

Remember a KE MD11 from CHC bounce and glide a long way when landing at AKL. Very light load I guess.

PA515

[Edited 2014-11-30 18:27:50]
 
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Mon Dec 01, 2014 2:33 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 79):
I understand it's a Star Alliance hub, but I don't think it's a good idea to base a route on lower yielding connections.

O&D may be higher yield, but the original Bob Crandall concept of connecting multiple cities to each other through a central hub is still one of the most efficient arrangements for moving the most people around using the least equipment and resources - thus making it lower cost than a collection of point-to-point O&D operations. Southwest can pull of the point to point because it operates on high volume routes, but that leaves a lot of cities out in the cold. AA made incredible money off its connections and so did CO when it had the maximum number of spokes into the Houston and Newark hubs. QF picked DFW for its connecting traffic, and it has worked out quite well.
 
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Mon Dec 01, 2014 2:36 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 106):
They might not spend long in Houston, at least in summer - they'd probably get the first flight out to Colorado - but I think they would use it.

New Zealand's supposed to be good cattle country. A little variety, which is just what Texans love.
 
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mariner
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Mon Dec 01, 2014 2:47 am

Quoting toxtethogrady (Reply 121):
O&D may be higher yield, but the original Bob Crandall concept of connecting multiple cities to each other through a central hub is still one of the most efficient arrangements for moving the most people around using the least equipment and resources - thus making it lower cost than a collection of point-to-point O&D operations.

It is indeed, extremely efficient, although American's efforts to create connecting hubs at RDU and BNA didn't work.

O&D remains higher yield.

Quoting toxtethogrady (Reply 122):
New Zealand's supposed to be good cattle country. A little variety, which is just what Texans love.

More famously, sheep country. If that's the yardstick, then Air NZ should consider flying to AUS - or DEN. The California sheep stations are probably covered by LAX/SFO.

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toxtethogrady
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Mon Dec 01, 2014 2:50 am

Austin may be growing, but it's still only 2 million people. Houston is 6.5 million. And they have money, for the moment.
 
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Mon Dec 01, 2014 2:53 am

Quoting toxtethogrady (Reply 124):
Austin may be growing, but it's still only 2 million people. Houston is 6.5 million. And they have money, for the moment.

I understand that, I lived in the States for twenty years. But you used livestock as the yardstick and now you've changed horses, so to speak.

mariner

[Edited 2014-11-30 18:58:16]
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Freshside3
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Mon Dec 01, 2014 3:47 am

Quoting toxtethogrady (Reply 122):
New Zealand's supposed to be good cattle country. A little variety, which is just what Texans love.

But NZ has more sheep than Texas.

Quoting toxtethogrady (Reply 124):
Austin may be growing, but it's still only 2 million people. Houston is 6.5 million. And they have money, for the moment.

AUS can support a LHR trip(on BA) ,so they are doing well.
 
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Mon Dec 01, 2014 3:56 am

Quoting aerorobnz (Reply 118):
SQ had triangular sinchc akl for a short while with 343s iirc

Actually with 742s - I travelled SIN-CHC in the mid '80s on a flight that was headed for AKL.
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777ER
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Mon Dec 01, 2014 5:01 am

Quoting aerorobnz (Reply 118):
Korean did AKLCHC with MD11 and SQ had triangular sinchc akl for a short while with 343s iirc.

Interesting! Did those flights carry domestic pax as NZs NRT-CHC-AKL flights do

Quoting Texan (Reply 119):
New Zealand, for the most part, is willing to trade reciprocal 8th and 9th freedom rights with any country. Unfortunately, the US is unwilling.

Well we all know which airlines the American customers would select if international airlines could fly USA domestic tag on services and the USA based carriers wouldn't be the first choice for many customers once they taste the greater offering
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Mon Dec 01, 2014 5:01 am

Quoting Texan (Reply 119):
Unfortunately, the US is unwilling.

What's in it for the US?
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Mon Dec 01, 2014 5:04 am

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 129):

Greater competition and obviously the chance for their airlines to fly domestic/tag on routes with domestic passengers in the other countries
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Mon Dec 01, 2014 7:31 am

Quoting toxtethogrady (Reply 122):
New Zealand's supposed to be good cattle country

Dairy is the money maker in NZ, its a significant driver in our economy.
 
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Mon Dec 01, 2014 2:40 pm

Quoting 777ER (Reply 130):
obviously the chance for their airlines to fly domestic/tag on routes with domestic passengers in the other countries

Which US carriers would benefit from being able to fly domestic New Zealand flights? This isn't Canada or Mexico we're talking about.
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Mon Dec 01, 2014 3:12 pm

Quoting freshside3 (Reply 126):
AUS can support a LHR trip(on BA) ,so they are doing well.

Plenty of US airports have LHR service -- including airports with few other intercontinental routes, like DEN, SAN, and PHX. I would think very few airports could support service to AKL at this point. But I do think that IAH is one of them.
 
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Mon Dec 01, 2014 4:32 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 125):
I understand that, I lived in the States for twenty years.
Quoting mariner (Reply 125):
I understand that, I lived in the States for twenty years.

Let me guess, in LA spending a lot of time in Colorado, right? That's what all this is about, isn't it? After all, what O&D markets could fill a plane between the US and NZ except for LAX and SFO? If, as you say, NZ should be concerned with generating profits from O&D traffic, what good would it do to add more capacity to a destination already served, depressing fare levels? How about adding a more convenient connecting option for NZ O&D travelers?

Quoting freshside3 (Reply 126):
But NZ has more sheep than Texas.

Good God, justifying an airline route based on sheep. There's a new one.
 
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Mon Dec 01, 2014 5:35 pm

Quoting jetero (Reply 134):
Let me guess, in LA spending a lot of time in Colorado, right?

I'm not sure why this has to do with anything but I had a house in Newburyport, MA, and I travelled a lot - Tennessee, where my writing partner lived - and the Russian River area in CA. LA was a great place to visit, but so was NY.

Yes, I think DEN should be one of the prospective cities for the airline - and I notice that the line about DEN was removed from later editions of the article - but mostly I can't think why many Kiwis would want go to to IAH - except to connect.

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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Mon Dec 01, 2014 6:01 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 135):
Yes, I think DEN should be one of the prospective cities for the airline - and I notice that the line about DEN was removed from later editions of the article - but mostly I can't think why many Kiwis would want go to to IAH - except to connect.

I agree with you. DEN can not only provide great connections to points all over the US, but Colorado also offers a great deal to visitors from NZ both in the summer and in winter. I also note that Colorado was the 5th highest source of visitors to NZ from 2009 to 2013, which is rather impressive given CO's population in comparison to the other states on that list.

I don't believe that DEN is entirely outside the realm of possibility. I recall that before AN went under, they were seriously considering a SYD-DEN service. I realize that Australia is a larger market, etc., but I think this goes to show that DEN to Aus/NZ isn't far-fetched.
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Mon Dec 01, 2014 6:18 pm

Quoting OA412 (Reply 136):

agreed, unless you are looking at mexico connections, there is nothing that IAH can do that DEN cannot. Since we are not looking at much more than a few O/D, either could work.
 
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Mon Dec 01, 2014 6:24 pm

Quoting Burchfiel (Reply 133):
. But I do think that IAH is one of them.

Allowing two hours to clear Border security after a likely 3.00PM arrival, there are more than 30 UA departures from IAH between 5pm and 6pm and a similar number of arrivals up to 2hrs before a 9 PM departure.
 
YoungDon
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Mon Dec 01, 2014 7:12 pm

Here's what I see as the primary advantages for each airport.

DEN advantages:

1. better connectivity to small Mountain State and Midwest markets not served via IAH, LAX, or SFO
2. higher O/D traffic (magnitude of which I have no idea)

IAH advantages:

1. better connectivity to southeastern US, Caribbean, Mexico, and Central American markets.
2. shorter connections to the east coast than DEN, LAX, or SFO (keeping in mind DEN-AKL and IAH-AKL are about the same distance)

The question is then, what would NZ hope to accomplish with a new US flight? Do they want to target more pax from east of the Mississippi and south of the border or do they want to target more pax in the Upper Midwest and Mountain states along with picking up an extra bit of O/D traffic?

While I completely understand Colorado's allure for tourists compared to Texas, I'm skeptical that equals a better flight. I think it's a reasonable to believe that the amount of traffic to/from New Zealand that originates or ends at an airport that is uniquely served by DEN (+ local DEN traffic) is smaller than the amount of traffic that originates or ends at an airport that is uniquely served by IAH (+ local IAH traffic).

Additionally, tourist traffic is almost nearly always low-yielding. I don't see why a flight would be started to serve that traffic especially if essentially all of the Colorado, Arizona, Nevada, and Calfornia resorts and ski towns can be served one-stop by the combination of LAX/SFO and IAH just as well as they could by the combination of LAX/SFO and DEN.

Of course, if there currently a large gap between them in O&D traffic (if anyone has hard numbers that would be helpful) then that would change the equation. However, if the differences were enough to change the calculus of the flight, then I feel DEN would have been considered more strongly in the original article.

[Edited 2014-12-01 11:26:20]
 
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Mon Dec 01, 2014 7:33 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 129):
Quoting Texan (Reply 119):Unfortunately, the US is unwilling.
What's in it for the US?

Get to show they are serious about open markets and competition in a low-risk environment. True, it is unlikely that any US airline would open routes within New Zealand. It is also unlikely that any New Zealand airline would open routes within the US. Other than some part 135 commercial logging operators, perhaps. The same question could be asked for us: what's in it for New Zealand?

Quoting 777ER (Reply 130):
Greater competition and obviously the chance for their airlines to fly domestic/tag on routes with domestic passengers in the other countries

  

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 132):
Which US carriers would benefit from being able to fly domestic New Zealand flights? This isn't Canada or Mexico we're talking about.

What New Zealand carriers would benefit from being able to fly domestic New Zealand flights? NZ already has an alliance with UA. Any place NZ would want to serve is already covered by the alliance. And would NZ--or any airline outside the USA that is already part of an alliance--want to go through the trouble of building up a domestic US route structure? There is a very threat to domestic US airlines if the US were to join the MALIAT Protocol and enter into more of these agreements with other countries.

And if I remember correctly, this all started by you saying:

Quoting Texan (Reply 119):
Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 102):You mean like how New Zealand allows Eighth Freedom flying for anyone who wants it? Oh, wait . . .

As shown, New Zealand allows Eighth Freedom, and even Ninth Freedom, flying for anyone who wants it and signs the MALIAT Protocol. So your attempted defence of protectionist US policy--by trying to compare it to New Zealand's open aviation policy--failed and you're trying to change the topic. Interesting  

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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Mon Dec 01, 2014 7:49 pm

Quoting Texan (Reply 140):
As shown, New Zealand allows Eighth Freedom, and even Ninth Freedom, flying for anyone who wants it and signs the MALIAT Protocol.

Had I intended to inquire about whether New Zealand permitted Eighth and Ninth Freedom flying to anyone who wanted it and had signed the MALIAT Protocol, I'd have written that. The fact remains that New Zealand doesn't permit cabotage to anyone who wants it. That ought to be the end of the story unless NZ or the government of New Zealand has asked the US for cabotage and been rejected.
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Mon Dec 01, 2014 8:08 pm

Quoting YoungDon (Reply 139):
Additionally, tourist traffic is almost nearly always low-yielding.

Much of Air NZ's traffic is tourist driven. It's one of the functions of the airline - to take Kiwis where they want to go and to bring tourists to NZ.

AKL-DPS is virtually all (outbound) tourist traffic and was started for that reason - fly Kiwis where they want to go.

Quoting YoungDon (Reply 139):
However, if the differences were enough to change the calculus of the flight, then I feel DEN would have been considered more strongly in the original article.

About a year (?) ago, there was a deputation from DIA to try and persuade the airline to fly to DEN, the implication being that there was money on the table for the route. At that time, Air NZ said it had no present plans for DEN

The writer of the original article latched onto that and referred to the comment, but that line about DEN was removed from the article the next day.

I think the writer was day-dreaming, any business case for LAS would be radically different from the case for ORD or IAH. This may be why the article was so heavily edited in letter editions, with even the original headline changed:

"Air NZ set to announce new US destination"

How can the airline be "set to announce" somewhere, if it hasn't decided where the somewhere is? It was changed to the much more ambivalent:

"Air NZ looks at adding to its routes to the US"

Sure, the airline is "looking at" more North America, the CEO said so, long before this article was published.

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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Mon Dec 01, 2014 8:34 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 142):

Much of Air NZ's traffic is tourist driven. It's one of the functions of the airline - to take Kiwis where they want to go and to bring tourists to NZ.

AKL-DPS is virtually all (outbound) tourist traffic and was started for that reason - fly Kiwis where they want to go.

Very fair point.

With that being said, I think that further reinforces my main point - other than very small markets in the Midwest and Rocky Mountain states what additional destinations does DEN open up that IAH would not?
 
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sunrisevalley
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Mon Dec 01, 2014 8:36 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 142):
At that time, Air NZ said it had no present plans for DEN

DEN-AKL presents problems with the 789 , even a version of ~ 255 seats. Boeing have finally published the takeoff runway length requirements for the 789 and these suggest that on a standard 15C day which would cover most evening takeoffs, the MTOW would be ~235t which is significantly less than max passenger load. The charts for the 788 show an additional 10t for "high thrust engines" over "typical thrust" engines . Is it worth going from ~74K to about 78K engines just for DEN, I would doubt it, for this reason alone I cannot see DEN being in the running .
 
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Mon Dec 01, 2014 8:46 pm

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 144):
Is it worth going from ~74K to about 78K engines just for DEN, I would doubt it, for this reason alone I cannot see DEN being in the running .

On those numbers, I'd agree, if it were just for DEN.

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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Mon Dec 01, 2014 9:23 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 145):
On those numbers, I'd agree, if it were just for DEN.

JNB would not be too much different .
 
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Mon Dec 01, 2014 9:25 pm

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 146):
JNB would not be too much different .

I haven't considered JNB - are they talking about that?   

It isn't Pacific Rim and it isn't north America.

mariner

[Edited 2014-12-01 13:28:56]
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Mon Dec 01, 2014 10:21 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 147):
It isn't Pacific Rim and it isn't north America.

Unless , and this is a real long shot , they go in with Borgetti on his two new international routes. The 789 could haul 36.5t JNB-MEL well within the 235t MTOW out of JNB. NZ will be eligible for EDTO 330 on the 789 and the 77E within 2-years.
 
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RE: NZ Set To Announce New USA Destination(LAS/IAH/ORD

Mon Dec 01, 2014 10:38 pm

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 148):
Unless , and this is a real long shot , they go in with Borgetti on his two new international routes. The 789 could haul 36.5t JNB-MEL well within the 235t MTOW out of JNB. NZ will be eligible for EDTO 330 on the 789 and the 77E within 2-years.

As a partner with Virgin Australia, perhaps, but everything that Luxon has said about Air NZ (metal) indicates Pacific Rim with some of North America obviously in that.

The only blank space he has talked about - to my knowledge - is South America. So I had never considered JNB.

mariner
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