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allrite
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Australian Aviation Thread 111

Sun Nov 30, 2014 12:58 pm

Welcome to the Australian Aviation Thread 111. As we reach a Nelson it's best to put cricketing imagery behind us in the wake of the latest tragedy.

Last thread we discussed:

* The new Qantas "Feels like home" ad campaign
* The Qantas retro jet arrives
* First QantasLink flight SYD-Wellcamp
* Jetgo pulls out of TWB
* TWB services in general
* QF A330 refurbish
* Scoot says they are thinking of SIN-MEL services
* Boarding music
* QantasLink aircraft base changes
* Qantas and China Eastern apply for joint venture
* Qantas to start HND services, but from where?

Hope that covers most of it (I'm on a mobile and it's not so easy to check). May it be smooth skies for all (especially Monday and Tuesday this week!   ).
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Ditzyboy
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Sun Nov 30, 2014 8:34 pm

Quoting allrite (Thread starter):
* Jetgo pulls out of TWB

Skytrans? JetGo pulled RMA.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Mon Dec 01, 2014 1:08 am

Something to note: you can't yet use electronic devices gate to gate on the VA ATRs yet. They are still seeking approval.
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DeltaB717
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Mon Dec 01, 2014 1:29 am

QLink commenced services BNE-HTI on Friday 28/11, VH-LQM operating the first service.

Jetgo has commenced SYD-GLT services today, VH-JGB operating.

[Edited 2014-11-30 17:30:49]
 
QF175
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Mon Dec 01, 2014 2:26 am

TravelDaily is reporting that Sichuan Airines (3U) will commence flights from Chengdu and Wuhan to the Gold Coast early 2015 (coinciding with Chinese New Year). It is also reported that flights will operate year-round from the middle of 2015.

Unfortunately I am unable to provide a link to the document at this stage but no doubt more agencies will pick up on this news over time...
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Mon Dec 01, 2014 2:32 am

Quoting allrite (Thread starter):
* Qantas to start HND services, but from where?

Further to the previous thread, some analysis from CAPA about Australia - Japan services.

http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...traffic-from-cathay-and-sia-198799

There are some obvious mistakes to overlook such as:

"Qantas prefers a morning arrival into Asia and an evening departure from Asia, effectively overnight services in either direction." Since every other Asia bound flight departs in the morning except for NRT I assume this will be corrected at some point. I also assume QF aren't going to be using the midnight slots and have received better timed ones.

But it's an interesting article nonetheless.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Mon Dec 01, 2014 4:48 am

Hello Everyone,

Been absent from A.net for a long time now and bringing myself up to speed.

I have just read an article concerning first week of operations for the first reconfigured QF A330-200 reg VH-EBV.

Source: http://www.airlinehubbuzz.com/seat-maps-reconfigured-qantas-a330s/

Other news I have also read AZ could potentilally return to Australian skies

ALITALIA likely to resume Australian services

Proposed schedule

A Rome based AZ executive has exclusively revealed to Airline Hub Buzz “We are currently looking at returning to either Melbourne or Sydney from either Rome or Milan. Flights will be co-ordinated conjunction with Etihad and will be designed to offer maximum connectivity with Rome, EY’s European stations and as well our new Milan and Venice services via Abu Dhabi. Plans are in the early stages and more information will be made available once we have finalised a schedule for Australia. Co-operation of some kind with Virgin Australia is also being looked at.”

The source further informed the aircraft type would most likely be a 777-200ER sourced from AZ’s fleet or possibly a lease arrangement with an EY 777-300ER with the aircraft in AZ colours.

Read more: http://www.airlinehubbuzz.com/alital...an-services/#.VHu-nW4FyTo.facebook

EK413
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IndianicWorld
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Mon Dec 01, 2014 5:11 am

^^ Interesting.

Could well be the 2nd daily MEL frequency or taking over EY/VA's 2nd daily flight to AUH and beyond.

As for 3U to OOL, they have struggled for quite a while into bigger markets (MEL and SYD), which will make things interesting to watch into that market. The secondary markets at both ends will likely be a challenge.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Mon Dec 01, 2014 5:19 am

Previous thread:

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 198):
The only thing I would suggest is that HND won't be getting the 744 if SYD-HND is added. It makes sense to keep the 744 at NRT and to fly an A330 to HND which they can then charge a premium on in all classes over NRT. That means the cheaper fares and connections, especially those to GK, go to NRT while those willing to pay to fly to the closer in airport pay more.

Probably at first (because QF is so risk adverse), but if both flights are from SYD then I expect HND to end up as QF's main TYO airport with NRT being the secondary port.

IMO it makes sense for them to send their more premium aircraft to the more premium airport, which is tailored to the higher yielding local Tokyo market and to send the aircraft with a lower CASM and fewer premium seats (but almost exactly the same number of Y seats) to the airport that is geared towards connections and the lower yielding end of the market.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 201):
The article that you're quoting in its full form is actually quite confused, and doesn't appear to be particularly well researched. For example the comment that it will be over-night northbound is not attributed to anyone, not even "a source familiar with the situation", and seemingly pulled out of thin-air. It's sad to see such a dreadfully written article from AusBT, but I won't believe anything it alleges until confirmed by Qantas.

  

It's important to remember that QF hasn't actually made any announcements yet! All they've done is inform agents that they will be making an announcement in the near future, at which time I'm sure everything will become clear!

This thread:

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 5):
But it's an interesting article nonetheless.

It's a shame that they didn't include CX/SQ figures for BNE as well as MEL/PER, since that seems to be the favourite for a non-SYD service around here.

Also, the CX/SQ figures aren't really as impressive at they make them sound -- in CX's case, 30% of a 60% full A330 would only be ~60 passengers ex-MEL, and those are split across TYO, KIX and NGO rather than being TYO exclusive. The SQ number would be roughly similar, but that will include passengers who are tied by loyalty to SQ/VA and would be very hard for QF to prise away.

So between those two, QF would be lucky to pick up maybe 80-100 passengers, plus any currently connecting over SYD and through other Asian hubs. The only way I can see a MEL-TYO service working is if it replaces the existing JQ service (which sounds like it has been a reasonable success). That could make sense to me, with any spare capacity shifting north to Queensland (OOL/CNS-China?).

Again, it would be interesting to see the BNE figures as well.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Mon Dec 01, 2014 5:30 am

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 5):
Further to the previous thread, some analysis from CAPA about Australia - Japan services.

http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...98799

This quote from the article partly answers one of my questions from the last thread about comparing BNE/MEL traffic to Japan:

Quote:
Melbourne is Qantas' largest connection point from Tokyo with about 40% more traffic than the connections from Brisbane, according to OAG Traffic Analyser for the year to Sep-2014. A service from Haneda to either of those cities would avoid the Sydney stopover and mean those passengers would arrive at their destination around the same time as if they connected through Sydney. A Melbourne service however would overlap with the four weekly Melbourne-Tokyo Narita service which Jetstar launched in Apr-2014. The Tokyo service has boosted Melbourne's inbound Japanese arrivals, including 39% in the three months to 30-Sep-2014, making Japan the largest growth market for Melbourne.

I presume that the JQ MEL-NRT flight could be moved to make way for a direct QF flight if necessary. As the CAPA article notes, the characteristics of Japan travel has changed from inbound Japanese tourists to outbound Australians.

Wish I was there now!

Quoting Ditzyboy (Reply 1):
Skytrans? JetGo pulled RMA.

Whoops! Sorry.
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QF175
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Mon Dec 01, 2014 7:10 am

Here's Qantas' application to the IASC for capacity on the Australia to Tokyo-Haneda route, the document was made public today however as expected there's nothing too exciting contained within:

http://www.iasc.gov.au/applications/files/4939.pdf
 
6thfreedom
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Mon Dec 01, 2014 10:26 am

Quoting allrite (Reply 9):
I presume that the JQ MEL-NRT flight could be moved to make way for a direct QF flight if necessary. As the CAPA article notes, the characteristics of Japan travel has changed from inbound Japanese tourists to outbound Australians.

Perhaps something the lines off:

QF SYD-HND
QF MEL-NRT replaces JQ, but operates as per current JQ schedule
JQ BNE-NRT operated with JQ MEL aircraft

SYD HND
12:15-20:30

HND-SYD
22:50 - 10:30+1

[Edited 2014-12-01 02:30:27]
 
Enobar
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Tue Dec 02, 2014 3:21 am

Airline Hub Buzz have a picture on their Facebook feed which leads me to believe that there's someone at JQ who's going to get in a whole lot of trouble....

Ouch



I think his punishment should be writing "I WILL NEVER TOUCH PARK AN A320" 5000 times.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Tue Dec 02, 2014 5:03 am

What about a split use of the HND slots? Say 4pw to SYD and 3pw to MEL?? Then split NRT the other way? What is the general experience with this sort of flying?? NRT could use the 744s, HND with 330s?
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Tue Dec 02, 2014 5:28 am

Quoting enobar (Reply 12):
Airline Hub Buzz have a picture on their Facebook feed which leads me to believe that there's someone at JQ who's going to get in a whole lot of trouble....

There was a similar incident involving a ZK- registered VA aircraft at SYD International sustaining substantial damage to the wing.

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JQflightie
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Tue Dec 02, 2014 8:25 am

just adding my 2 cents..... but why can't it not be a PER-HND ??        
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Tue Dec 02, 2014 8:35 am

Quoting JQflightie (Reply 15):

Id say SIN would be a better route to start from PER no??  
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Tue Dec 02, 2014 9:16 am

Quoting QF2220 (Reply 13):
What about a split use of the HND slots? Say 4pw to SYD and 3pw to MEL?? Then split NRT the other way? What is the general experience with this sort of flying?? NRT could use the 744s, HND with 330s?

Nup, highly unlikely to happen. People want certainty (particularly premium passengers) and don't want to be guessing if it's NRT or HND for their particular flight.
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Tue Dec 02, 2014 10:02 am

Quoting SYDSpotter (Reply 17):

I don't know. A lot of people that I saw flying SCL-SYD knew that the M/W/Sa flights were QF and the other days were codeshare with LA. So I think people have the capacity to learn it quick.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Tue Dec 02, 2014 10:33 am

Quoting 6thfreedom (Reply 11):
Perhaps something the lines off:

QF SYD-HND
QF MEL-NRT replaces JQ, but operates as per current JQ schedule
JQ BNE-NRT operated with JQ MEL aircraft

JQ operating both OOL-NRT and BNE-NRT? I doubt it. Atleast with QF operating BNE-NRT, it serves two more distinct markets. Though, that being said, if QF did start BNE-NRT, I would expect OOL-NRT to drop from 6pw to closer to 3 or 4pw.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Tue Dec 02, 2014 10:42 am

Quoting QF2220 (Reply 16):
Id say SIN would be a better route to start from PER no??  

   Followed by HKG, DXB and PVG (and KUL)!

Quoting QF2220 (Reply 18):
I don't know. A lot of people that I saw flying SCL-SYD knew that the M/W/Sa flights were QF and the other days were codeshare with LA. So I think people have the capacity to learn it quick.

That's not really a fair comparison -- all that people are remembering is that QF flies to SCL 3-4 days a week and that anything that goes via AKL or is clearly marked as an LA flight is not a QF flight.

What you're proposing is a whole lot more complicated. You'd have passengers turning up at the wrong airport because they flew into a different airport to the airport they are supposed to be flying out of, you'd have four different flight numbers with different schedules on different days, inconsistent facilities/lounges at different airports, connections available some days that wouldn't be available on others etc. It would create an extremely inconsistent experience for passengers and a far more operationally challenging system than is really necessary.

It would also undermine the whole purpose of the HND service. Imagine how a frequent, high value SYD-TYO traveller will feel if, after experiencing the convenience of HND on a regular basis, they then have to travel all the way down to NRT because they need to travel on a Thursday rather than a Friday this trip? Far better to just be consistent and predictable (like Sydscott said) than to try and do too much and do it all badly.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Tue Dec 02, 2014 12:02 pm

I would say if the new HND service can not be from SYD which you would think it would be, then I would bet QF will fly it from BNE. MEL for some reason until JQ started, has never had a service to NRT not since the very early 2000s and then that was canned, even for years Japan Airlines has had rights to fly to MEL but never ever took them up. So I would say QF will do BNE HND or maybe Japan Airlines will find its way back to Brisbane. Is there just not enough either business or tourist between Melbourne and Tokyo?
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Tue Dec 02, 2014 10:12 pm

Quoting QF2220 (Reply 18):

Bit different... a codeshared LA service to SCL (a) is the same airport and (b) has a different symbol next to the flight number on QF's website. So it's quite obvious. People would actually have to go looking for HND / NRT, a lot would just see Tokyo and get caught out. I tend to agree, HND is a more 'premium' market and that kind of market wants certainty and daily frequency.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Wed Dec 03, 2014 12:01 am

Warren Truss has had a busy morning...

First, the remaining CASA board members have been confirmed - Anita Taylor, Ian Smith, and Murray Warfield. http://www.minister.infrastructure.g...ases/2014/December/wt250_2014.aspx .

Secondly, the government response to the ASRR review has finally been released - http://www.infrastructure.gov.au/avi...files/ASRR-Government-Response.pdf

I haven't had a detailed read through this response but to me there doesn't seem to be anything ground-breaking. Martin Dolan (ATSB head) will be out of a job next year. There are lots of fluff words about improving communication and trust but I can't seem to find any concrete commitments to that end.

Overall this review has been a big disappointment. It was pitched as a chance to benchmark Australian safety standards against the world. But the outcome is anything but. It was a review trying to make the industry happier, as opposed to having the travelling public as it's focus. I can't help but think that it is just trying to pander to the noisy minority of morons (who IMO seem to congregate on a rival "rumour" forum...)

A much better use of time and money would be for a team of experts to actually comb through the regulations and government policies and pick out which ones can be scrapped/implemented with little safety impact but great cost benefits. In fact that should be a yearly review, I have no doubt there is enough work for it...

Plus I was bemused at Recommendation 30 - "The Civil Aviation Safety Authority changes the current two-tier regulatory framework (act and regulations) to a three-tier structure (act, regulations and standards)"

....... Clearly Forsyth has never seen a Civil Aviation Order, or the Manual of Standards......... the response says the government agrees in principle with these recommendations, then proceeds to explain that that is what Australia already has......
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Wed Dec 03, 2014 2:52 am

Positive news for the flying kangaroo... That was a quick turnaround...?

Qantas sets course for return to profit

Qantas is flying steady towards a return to profit in a dramatic turnaround which could prove an early vindication of Alan Joyce's tough 'transformation' of the airline.
Earlier this year, Joyce made a brave but measured forecast that Qantas would chalk up an underlying pre-tax profit by the end of this year.
Analysts are now tipping this at around $136 million based in part on falling oil prices, along with an end to the 'capacity wars' between Qantas and Virgin Australia, a lower Australian dollar, early benefits from the cost-cutting scheme and increased passenger umbers and per-seat revenue for Qantas' domestic and international arms.
It's an extraordinary turn-around from Qantas' previous full-year loss of $2.8 billion dollars, although after write-downs and one-off costs the real loss was a more manageable $646 million.

Read more: http://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-sets-...=flipper&utm_campaign=home-flipper

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tullamarine
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Wed Dec 03, 2014 3:37 am

Quoting EK413 (Reply 24):
Analysts are now tipping this at around $136 million based in part on falling oil prices, along with an end to the 'capacity wars' between Qantas and Virgin Australia, a lower Australian dollar, early benefits from the cost-cutting scheme and increased passenger umbers and per-seat revenue for Qantas' domestic and international arms.

I'd be hoping for a bit more than $136M. Just the change of depreciation policy in FY14 means that there should be an annual improvement of about $200M from reduced depreciation expense. In addition they are likely to gain $50M+ from the falling oil price. The continuation of the so called surcharges by QF and VA is pretty disgraceful. Should QF be unable to do better than $250M, you'd have to think there is still a way to go in getting the business to even a reasonable level.
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Wed Dec 03, 2014 3:54 am

Quoting tullamarine (Reply 25):
In addition they are likely to gain $50M+ from the falling oil price.

Surely that depends on how much they are hedged, and at what price.

It could hurt rather then help.

mariner
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tullamarine
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Wed Dec 03, 2014 3:59 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 26):
Surely that depends on how much they are hedged, and at what price.

It could hurt rather then help.

Ineffective hedges will be gone by March and even then, they should be at reduced average prices compared with last year. In addition, they will be active in the market already establishing hedges using the new base price. Even the most pessimistic analyst sees about $40M YoY fuel savings from the barrel price reduction. You'd hope the more efficient fleet (less 767s and 747s) would yield another $5M or so.
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Wed Dec 03, 2014 4:05 am

Quoting tullamarine (Reply 27):
Ineffective hedges will be gone by March and even then, they should be at reduced average prices compared with last year. In addition, they will be active in the market already establishing hedges using the new base price. Even the most pessimistic analyst sees about $40M YoY fuel savings from the barrel price reduction. You'd hope the more efficient fleet (less 767s and 747s) would yield another $5M or so.

The analysis I was reading this morning said that the decline in fuel prices would add about $20m to the half year result and that from 1 January the hedges they have in place would allow them to share in 70% of the decline in the fuel price from whatever their base level was. Essentially they were saying the fuel savings would be bigger in 2nd half by a very large margin assuming the same avg fuel price as the first half. So we'll have to see.

The same analysis also concluded it was too early for QF to remove their fuel surcharges and that they would probably only move when competitors did so. (Not forgetting that there are no domestic fuel surcharges as it's all included in the ticket cost.)
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Wed Dec 03, 2014 4:09 am

Quoting tullamarine (Reply 27):
Ineffective hedges will be gone by March and even then, they should be at reduced average prices compared with last year.

We still have to get to March and I thought the article was about 2014 numbers?

Hedges really can be a double edged sword.

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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Wed Dec 03, 2014 4:16 am

Quoting tullamarine (Reply 25):
I'd be hoping for a bit more than $136M. Just the change of depreciation policy in FY14 means that there should be an annual improvement of about $200M from reduced depreciation expense. In addition they are likely to gain $50M+ from the falling oil price. The continuation of the so called surcharges by QF and VA is pretty disgraceful. Should QF be unable to do better than $250M, you'd have to think there is still a way to go in getting the business to even a reasonable level.

well said.
QF should in theory be producing solid profits now after that massive write off. The falling fuel prices are a very thick icing on too of the cake. A lot of airlines around the world are looking to double profits with the falling fuel prices.
If the little leprechaun can't get QF to $300m+ Profit then he has failed once again simple as that.
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mariner
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Wed Dec 03, 2014 4:36 am

Quoting Zkpilot (Reply 30):
The falling fuel prices are a very thick icing on too of the cake. A lot of airlines around the world are looking to double profits with the falling fuel prices.

Some are - not all. Again, it depends on the extent to which they are hedged and at what price - among other variables:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/antoineg...ong-biggest-winners-in-oil-plunge/

"American Airlines, JetBlue Among Biggest Winners In Oil Plunge"

Others? Not so much:

"Delta and Alaska Air may benefit the least from falling oil, BAML analyst Engel said, citing Delta’s commodity hedges and a profit sharing agreement the company has with employees."

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowat...air-lines-disappoints/?mod=BOLBlog

"Falling Oil No Help as Delta Air Lines Disappoints

Keay also notes that falling oil might not be as much of a help for Delta as some of its peers"


But assuming there is a Qantas profit, I don't see how he (presumably AJ) has "failed".

Quoting Zkpilot (Reply 30):
If the little leprechaun can't get QF to $300m+ Profit then he has failed once again simple as that.

He said "profit" - he hasn't said how much, to my knowledge, and I don't see the point in pulling numbers of of thin air as a yardstick.

I think it's better to under-promise and (hopefully) over-deliver.

mariner

[Edited 2014-12-02 20:44:15]
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Wed Dec 03, 2014 5:24 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 31):
He said "profit" - he hasn't said how much, to my knowledge, and I don't see the point in pulling numbers of of thin air as a yardstick.

I think it's better to under-promise and (hopefully) over-deliver.

The following was the article I saw in the smh:

http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviat...-analyst-says-20141203-11yy8l.html

I read yesterday, in something that I can't post here, that the QF first half profit projection was $136 million. That was from some analysts research.

They expect the second half to be even better due to more of the fuel decline flowing through to the bottom line due to timing of fuel purchases. Fuel is down 27% in currency adjusted terms and QF gets 70% of that so an 18.9% reduction in fuel. Based on last years fuel bill of $4.5 billion for the full year, or for arguments sake $2.25 billion per half year, the second half of the year should see a fuel bill decline of $430 million based on todays oil prices. That compares to analyst estimate of a $20 million benefit in this half.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Wed Dec 03, 2014 5:29 am

With the airline returning to the black how is this news seen as negative. If AJ returned another loss then I'd say he failed, but his reported the airline is on track to return to profit.

The question we need to be asking is the performance of QFI, with the announcement of daily HND services, addition LAX services from MEL is an indication QFI is perhaps back on track.

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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Wed Dec 03, 2014 5:37 am

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 32):
I read yesterday, in something that I can't post here, that the QF first half profit projection was $136 million. That was from some analysts research.

Obviously, I would think that's good, assuming it's accurate - and if the second half numbers are better, that's great

It remains a projection.

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tullamarine
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Wed Dec 03, 2014 5:41 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 29):
We still have to get to March and I thought the article was about 2014 numbers?

Article was referring to estimated profit for FY15.

Quoting mariner (Reply 29):
Hedges really can be a double edged sword.

They can be ineffective, ie hedged price is higher than the spot price otherwise achievable but hedges are designed to add certainty to expenditure. Airlines who didn't hedge (or hedged to a lesser degree) will be making windfall gains this financial year but that is gambling and it tends to always end in tears and it is not the business that investors think they are buying shares in. The growth of WN from 1995 to 2010 was largely helped by its hedging policy which was far more successful than any of the legacy carriers. The legacy carriers assumed a greater risk and tended to always lose.

Despite all of thi,s there is no way QF cannot be making significant (if unplanned) profits from the falling price. They never 100% hedge so will be making spot price savings. In addition the average hedged price from FY14 to FY15 will be lower.

QF are able to hedge fuel prices up to 2 years but typically do no more than 6 months. (Given the very low prices at the moment, they may revisit their typical practice).
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mariner
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Wed Dec 03, 2014 6:01 am

Quoting tullamarine (Reply 35):
They can be ineffective, ie hedged price is higher than the spot price otherwise achievable but hedges are designed to add certainty to expenditure.

Yes, I do understand that. It's why Southwest Airlines - for a time there, the envy of every airline in the world with it;s hedges - started hedging and reaped fortunes from about 2003 as fuel rocketed up.

That dried up, quite dramatically, in about 2008 as the oil price started to waver and for a couple of quarters at least the hedges cost the airline money.

US Airways gave up hedging in about 2008:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-airwa...nt-bother-hedging-jet-fuel-prices/

"US Airways: Why We Don't Bother Hedging Jet-Fuel Prices"

And tiny, consistently profitable Allegiant, has simply never hedged - but remained profitable.

Quoting tullamarine (Reply 35):
Despite all of thi,s there is no way QF cannot be making significant (if unplanned) profits from the falling price.

Qantas may be. But I don't know that until Qantas tells me, and I prefer not to speculate.

mariner

[Edited 2014-12-02 22:16:30]
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Wed Dec 03, 2014 6:06 am

Quoting tullamarine (Reply 35):
Quoting mariner (Reply 29):
We still have to get to March and I thought the article was about 2014 numbers?

Article was referring to estimated profit for FY15.

The AusBT article claims the $136 million figure is "by the end of this year." I take that to mean the calendar year 2014 not the financial year 2015.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Wed Dec 03, 2014 6:09 am

Quoting tullamarine (Reply 25):
In addition they are likely to gain $50M+ from the falling oil price.

You are looking at oil prices in a vacuum, that completely ignores the actual "cost" of fuel expressed in AUD.

Consider what the USD has done against the AUD over the past 6 months, and you will see that any reduction in "cost" for a corporation that reports in AUD is largely illusory. The USD is on the comeback, and with 3.9% growth in the US economy things are only going to get worse for corporations that report in AUD. Whether we like it or not, we will soon be back to 2005 levels.

I am currently in North Carolina. When I was last here gas was about $4.60/gallon. Right now it is about $2.70/gallon. If we work with the rough figure of 1 gallon = 4 litres, then we should have seen an ~50c/litre reduction in the cost of fuel in Australia. We haven't. The primary reason is that the AUD has depreciated markedly against the USD.

Quoting Zkpilot (Reply 30):
A lot of airlines around the world are looking to double profits with the falling fuel prices

Even in EUR they are feeling the pinch from the rising USD. The only airlines that are truly "benefitting" from the drop in the price of crude are the American airlines, i.e. those that report in USD.

Quoting EK413 (Reply 33):
With the airline returning to the black how is this news seen as negative.

Good question.
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:17 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 38):
Quoting EK413 (Reply 33):
With the airline returning to the black how is this news seen as negative.

Good question.

Only on a.net, where positive news becomes negative  
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:36 am

Quoting qf002 (Reply 20):
Quoting DeltaB717 (Reply 22):

Points taken. Though id be hoping to see some innovative ideas to use these slots effectively.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:44 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 38):
I am currently in North Carolina. When I was last here gas was about $4.60/gallon. Right now it is about $2.70/gallon. If we work with the rough figure of 1 gallon = 4 litres, then we should have seen an ~50c/litre reduction in the cost of fuel in Australia. We haven't. The primary reason is that the AUD has depreciated markedly against the USD.

Even with the depreciation, the oil price has fallen further. Adjusted for the fall in the dollar it is still down 27% in AUD terms. Now not all of that is flowing through to airlines at the moment because they have to forward purchase their fuel but it is still significant. And for QF, since it's biggest International market is North America, not to mention it generally prices South America in USD, it would be earning a significant amount of US dollar income. So you also have to take some of that into consideration as a natural hedge on currency movements.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:11 pm

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 41):
Even with the depreciation, the oil price has fallen further. Adjusted for the fall in the dollar it is still down 27% in AUD terms. Now not all of that is flowing through to airlines at the moment because they have to forward purchase their fuel but it is still significant. And for QF, since it's biggest International market is North America, not to mention it generally prices South America in USD, it would be earning a significant amount of US dollar income. So you also have to take some of that into consideration as a natural hedge on currency movements.

  
QF are a bit schizophrenic on exchange rates. They wax and wane on whether a fall in the AUD is good for them depending on the argument they are trying to prosecute. When they were trying to talk up their performance, they claimed the fall in the AUD was a benefit. When trying to defend ( the arguably indefensible) fuel surcharge they cite the falling dollar even though as Scott correctly points out, they are in a sweet spot here too.

Both QF and VA are behaving shamefully here and the ACCC are being weak. If, as we have always suspected, these surcharges are just another way to express the normal fare, they should be removed and the headline fare be what it is. Of course, this doesn't suit the airlines as they sting their frequent flyers these surcharges on top of their reward tickets arguing they have to recover extraordinary costs due to a special circumstance. As I said, the airlines are behaving badly and the ACCC is useless in policing them.
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:13 pm

Can anyone tell me which aircraft is scheduled to fly QF107 on 09Dec?

 

Cheers
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:18 pm

Quoting tullamarine (Reply 42):
Both QF and VA are behaving shamefully here and the ACCC are being weak. If, as we have always suspected, these surcharges are just another way to express the normal fare, they should be removed and the headline fare be what it is. Of course, this doesn't suit the airlines as they sting their frequent flyers these surcharges on top of their reward tickets arguing they have to recover extraordinary costs due to a special circumstance. As I said, the airlines are behaving badly and the ACCC is useless in policing them.

But that's not even the real issue on fuel surcharges because if you don't like them you can fly another airline without one......................wait don't they all have one? So rather than single out QF/VA if the ACCC got involved it would have to investigate everyone who charges a fuel surcharge into and out of Australia and take them all on. I'm not sure the ACCC is up for that sort of fight.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:23 pm

Quoting gasman (Reply 43):
Can anyone tell me which aircraft is scheduled to fly QF107 on 09Dec?



Cheers

Good luck with that!

Even if one particular frame is scheduled now, just one long-haul aircraft going tech or major delay between now and then could throw that plan out of the window. You will only get 100% confirmation when you see it at the gate, sorry, when you rotate and leave the ground in it!

You can try to work it out the evening before by looking for patterns on flightradar24 / flightaware that the aircraft that usually operates that flight does in the day or two or three prior to operating QF107, and then search all of the different frames and see which ones are flying a similar rotation pattern and will be in SYD on the morning of the 9th - but it will be just a guess. I'm sure you could narrow your guess down to a few frames  
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:37 pm

Quoting QF2220 (Reply 40):
some innovative ideas to use these slots effectively

Given restrictions on the slots available to Australian carriers (midnight to 0605hrs for both arrivals and departures, unless something has changed since the bilateral was agreed in 2011) I think the innovation is going to have to come from the use of the NRT slots post-HND.

http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...traction-in-shrinking-market-60083

I don't see QF moving onto MEL because why would they when JQ can have it to itself. I either see them either:
* keeping the SYD-NRT as is, in addition to HND;
* moving the NRT service to BNE;
* splitting the NRT service between BNE and either a PER-DRW-NRT or ADL-DRW-NRT; or
* seeking additional NRT capacity to allow them to have SYD-NRT, BNE-NRT and PER/ADL-DRW-NRT.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:51 pm

In a bit of a left field announcement, Jetstar Japan has just announced their first international route will be KIX-HKG.

http://australianaviation.com.au/201...kong-as-first-international-route/

I would have thought NRT would be the more obvious choice but any step in the International direction is the right one!

EDIT - Zipangu flyer has a few more details on this here:

http://zipanguflyer.blogspot.com.au/...pan-loads-first-international.html

It's only going to be 3 per week initially.

[Edited 2014-12-03 14:55:34]
 
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777Jet
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Wed Dec 03, 2014 11:00 pm

Quoting DeltaB717 (Reply 46):
I don't see QF moving onto MEL because why would they when JQ can have it to itself. I either see them either:
* keeping the SYD-NRT as is, in addition to HND;

This is what I see happening IMHO.

I also like the idea previously discussed about dropping the 744 from NRT and having 333s operate to both NRT / HND from SYD.
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allrite
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread 111

Wed Dec 03, 2014 11:21 pm

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 47):
In a bit of a left field announcement, Jetstar Japan has just announced their first international route will be KIX-HKG.

I quite like this as I've always felt that it's a missing piece in the Singapore > Japan puzzle for Jetstar. You will be able to fly SIN > HKG > KIX, SIN > TPE > KIX and SIN > MNL > KIX. I wonder if there will be a mainland China destination in future, maybe SIN > HGH > KIX? Be nice to see Korea in the greater Jetstar network as well.

I realise that there are other LCC alternatives for each, but from a familiarity (and points) perspective it can be nice to have a single airline family.
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