Planesmart
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Sat Jan 02, 2016 3:52 am

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 95):
You and Speedbored are interpreting "standard" to mean default or necessary terms. I'm using "standard" to mean "average." There is certainly an industry average discount from list, for which figure Leeham uses an estimate of 55%

Data source for your standard average is small to mid-sized airlines, who disclose purchase prices (and/or their financiers), negotiate simple contracts (compared to others), in a straightforward way.

Mega customers don't negotiate discounts off the list price. They negotiate anything and everything, including 'below the horizon' discounts, which may not even be obvious discounts (fit out credits, deferred payments for parts, parts held for the OEM by the customer unpaid until used, retrospective discounts, conditional event discounts, rate shading, sale or return for parts, air frame and engine buybacks, performance guarantees, mtbf parts guarantees, service lifetime parts prices, tax effective balloon payments......................), which when they hang values off those, factor in funding and tax effectiveness, results in a number.

Even Boeing and Airbus don't know what their largest customers pay for engines, or the related lifetime ownership costs negotiated. They have an idea, because for small to medium operators, they purchase engines on behalf.

Published list prices are for ANet posters and..............
 
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speedbored
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Sat Jan 02, 2016 9:13 am

Quoting Planesmart (Reply 94):
Which is a generalisation, covering small to large operators, based on no specific data, unless GECAS, EK and others breach contract terms and are sharing.
Quoting Planesmart (Reply 96):
Mega customers don't negotiate discounts off the list price. ....results in a number.

  
The supposed 55% average doesn't agree with the real-world figures that I have seen, and not just from "mega customers".

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 95):
You've again hijacked a thread to engage in a useless dispute with me.

I see. So rebutting erroneous statements presented as fact is now "hijacking a thread"? Your attempts to silence anyone who dares to point out the errors in your post (which was the genuine off-topic thread hijack, btw), via personal attacks, insults and hypocrisy, is what really derails these threads.
 
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Sat Jan 02, 2016 10:45 am

Quoting speedbored (Reply 97):
The supposed 55% average doesn't agree with the real-world figures that I have seen, and not just from "mega customers".

I guess forumers then have a choice: Trust Bjorn/Ferpe at Leeham or trust you.

Are you still insisting that Airbus does NOT sell the A380 rather cheaply due to lack of demand, or have you given up on that long-held view? Your earlier comment implies that you still think this is true.

[Edited 2016-01-02 02:50:22]
 
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Sat Jan 02, 2016 1:46 pm

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 98):
I guess forumers then have a choice: Trust Bjorn/Ferpe at Leeham or trust you.

Yet we don't even have such a choice because he offers no data, only 'I know but I can't tell you'.
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Sat Jan 02, 2016 2:03 pm

Hey guys, maybe it is time to get back on the production topic?

So, when will the first ANA logo arrive at XFW?   
 
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Sat Jan 02, 2016 9:44 pm

I wonder if EK is buying aircraft for a price then selling the same to a leasing company for more money thus booking an immediate profit on each new aircraft?
 
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Sat Jan 02, 2016 10:21 pm

Quoting goosebayguy (Reply 95):
I wonder if EK is buying aircraft for a price then selling the same to a leasing company for more money thus booking an immediate profit on each new aircraft?

It's a possibility based on the published prices Doric is paying, as the discount rate is about 35% off list and I expect EK is getting better than that from Airbus.
 
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Sat Jan 02, 2016 10:47 pm

Quoting goosebayguy (Reply 95):
I wonder if EK is buying aircraft for a price then selling the same to a leasing company for more money thus booking an immediate profit on each new aircraft?

As discussed earlier in the thread, exactly what is THE purchase value? Everything negotiated/bundled with a purchase provide latitude, in both directions. Could ask the same question for funding syndicates - do they fund only the value the seller received?

More complicated if the seller has operated the aircraft for a period before sale/leaseback. Then condition, depreciation (book value) and valuation (market value) factors in assessing THE value.

Leasing companies enter such deals with eyes wide open. Not like the early days, when canny leasees returned aircraft at end of lease with hours to run on major components, swapping out all the oldest parts from their fleet into the aircraft being returned. Now 'condition' clauses (side agreements) are highly detailed, involve 3rd party inspections, enforced, and multi-million dollar settlements, though leasees will negotiate partial / complete forgiveness / discounts for lease extensions.
 
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Sun Jan 03, 2016 9:41 am

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 92):
I guess forumers then have a choice: Trust Bjorn/Ferpe at Leeham or trust you.

True. But at least I am clear about that my information is only opinion, or based on what I have seen or heard, rather than presenting it as hard fact as some outsiders do. What I find particularly odd is that you seem to accept anything presented by Leeham as hard fact. If you bother to look at how they arrive at their numbers, you will find that there is a lot of conjecture in many of their figures, as this is very closely guarded information. Educated and informed conjecture, yes, but conjecture nonetheless, as I am sure they would be happy to admit.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 93):
Yet we don't even have such a choice because he offers no data, only 'I know but I can't tell you'.

Good luck with finding anyone who would be prepared to disclose such very sensitive commercial information.

But who cares anyway? Too many people get far too obsessed with meaningless numbers like this. "Discount from list" is another of those numbers that is really only of use for an argument on a.net.

Take an example - airlines X and Y both order an aircraft with a list of $100m, with a parts/maintenance/support package valued at $20m. Airline X negotiates a price of $50m for the aircraft and agrees to pay full price for support. Airline Y negotiates a price of $60m with support included. Airline X got their aircraft at a discount of 50% off list while airline Y only got 40% off. But who got the better deal?

As Planesmart has already pointed out a number of times, almost every sales contract is different, and what is "included in the price" varies enormously. Does anyone here even know what is included in a "list price" aircraft?

Contract price negotiations these days tend to concentrate on the whole picture and will include many of the ancilliaries such as spares, maintenance, support, training, performance guarantees, etc. etc. Rarely, if ever, do negotiations focus on a "discount from list price".

Bear in mind that different airlines will prefer to negotiate different splits between capital expenditure and operating expenditure on each contract to maximise their tax and cashflow benefits. That preferred split will also vary from contract to contract within a single airline depending upon how they intend to finance each purchase.

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 92):
Are you still insisting that Airbus does NOT sell the A380 rather cheaply due to lack of demand, or have you given up on that long-held view? Your earlier comment implies that you still think this is true.

How can I "still be insisting" something that I have never claimed. My earlier comment implies nothing of the sort. Yet again, you seek to discredit anyone who dares to point out the errors in your posts, this time by trying to put words into my mouth. Give it a rest.

If you do believe that Airbus is "selling A380s rather cheaply" (which I find hard to understand given the fact, as you regularly enjoy pointing out, that they are not selling any at all at the moment), then please do present your evidence of this.

[Edited 2016-01-03 01:59:39]
 
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speedbored
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Sun Jan 03, 2016 9:50 am

Quoting goosebayguy (Reply 95):
I wonder if EK is buying aircraft for a price then selling the same to a leasing company for more money thus booking an immediate profit on each new aircraft?
Quoting Stitch (Reply 96):
It's a possibility based on the published prices Doric is paying, as the discount rate is about 35% off list and I expect EK is getting better than that from Airbus.

These days, leasing companies will rarely, if ever, agree to pay more for a frame on a sale/leaseback than the airline has themselves paid for it. I've certainly not seen it happen for many years. Discrepancies between what the airline appears to have paid the manufacturer and what it is sold on to the leasing company for, are usually due to everything that is added to the aircraft that is not included in the price paid direct to the manufacturer.

Quoting Planesmart (Reply 97):
Everything negotiated/bundled with a purchase provide latitude, in both directions.

  

Quoting Planesmart (Reply 97):
Leasing companies enter such deals with eyes wide open.

Though that has not always been true in the past  
 
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Sun Jan 03, 2016 11:10 am

Leasing companies are a very successful part of the airline industry, so presumably what ever they pay for an aircraft, their rates are calculated to make them a good return on capital and a profit at the end of the lease period.
 
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Sun Jan 03, 2016 12:57 pm

Quoting speedbored (Reply 98):
If you do believe that Airbus is "selling A380s rather cheaply" (which I find hard to understand given the fact, as you regularly enjoy pointing out, that they are not selling any at all at the moment), then please do present your evidence of this

Evidence:

Quote:
“Yes, I can agree the aircraft as sold today is a bargain,” Leahy said. “It is natural when sales are slow”.
http://leehamnews.com/2015/01/14/int...a380-sales-strategy-going-forward/

Just to be clear - that's John Leahy. He works for Airbus.

[Edited 2016-01-03 05:40:45]
 
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Sun Jan 03, 2016 2:05 pm

Quoting speedbored (Reply 98):
Contract price negotiations these days tend to concentrate on the whole picture and will include many of the ancilliaries such as spares, maintenance, support, training, performance guarantees, etc. etc. Rarely, if ever, do negotiations focus on a "discount from list price"

This is a very long-winded way to avoid making a point.

Whether discount from list price is the focus of negotiations has no bearing on whether such a number exists.

Given that planes sell for some number of dollars,
Given that one can add the number of dollars across total sales,
Given that calculators can divide total dollars by total sales,
Given that the resulting number can be divided by list price,

...we have an average discount from list price.

Now of course there will be variation around that mean regarding myriad ancillary provisisons and one can spill gallons of virtual ink listing them. It's still irrelevant to the high-level, simple points we've for some unfathomable reason been disputing: that airlines use sale/leaseback and/or debt financing to defray the (opportunity) cost of investment.

Demonstration of this knowledge's irrelevance to high-level understanding occurs, for example, when one can possess it and still have difficulty understanding why a product in low demand sells for a lower price.
 
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Sun Jan 03, 2016 2:42 pm

Quoting BHXLOVER (Reply 100):
their rates are calculated to make them a good return on capital and a profit at the end of the lease period.

Another area where productivity from the real world translates into profits for the "financial fantastics".
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KarelXWB
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Sun Jan 03, 2016 3:22 pm

Final delivery of 2015 was MSN 204 EK #72 (A6-EOT).


A380 Emirates A6-EOT delivery by XFW-Spotter, on Flickr
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Planesmart
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Sun Jan 03, 2016 9:57 pm

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 102):
This is a very long-winded way to avoid making a point.

Whether discount from list price is the focus of negotiations has no bearing on whether such a number exists.

Given that planes sell for some number of dollars,
Given that one can add the number of dollars across total sales,
Given that calculators can divide total dollars by total sales,
Given that the resulting number can be divided by list price,

...we have an average discount from list price.

Now of course there will be variation around that mean regarding myriad ancillary provisisons and one can spill gallons of virtual ink listing them. It's still irrelevant to the high-level, simple points we've for some unfathomable reason been disputing: that airlines use sale/leaseback and/or debt financing to defray the (opportunity) cost of investment.

Demonstration of this knowledge's irrelevance to high-level understanding occurs, for example, when one can possess it and still have difficulty understanding why a product in low demand sells for a lower price.

Have tended to believe your aerodynamic epistles, but now we are in my speciality........ Repetition doesn't make it right, and sometimes, less is more (can apply to aircraft sales, poster shooting and sarcasm).
 
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PW100
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Mon Jan 04, 2016 10:42 pm

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 101):
Evidence:

Quote:“Yes, I can agree the aircraft as sold today is a bargain,” Leahy said. “It is natural when sales are slow”.http://leehamnews.com/2015/01/14/int...a380-sales-strategy-going-forward/

Just to be clear - that's John Leahy. He works for Airbus.

Most important piece of information missing: discount percentage.
40% can be a bargain. 50% can be a bargain. 60% can be a bargain.

Furthermore, it is not clear if JL's bargain pertains the complete furnished aircraft including engines, or just the bare airframe, where engines (including possible service contracts - PBTH) furnishing, avionics suite are negotiated independently with their respective OEMs.

I'm sure he'll tell the world it's a bargain. He's not opening up they market by shouting from the roof just how expensive his A380 is . . .
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Wed Jan 06, 2016 11:03 am

MSN 205 EK #73 cabin check flight today:


A380 Emirates A6-EOU by XFW-Spotter, on Flickr


A380 Emirates A6-EOU by XFW-Spotter, on Flickr

[Edited 2016-01-06 05:19:31]
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Wed Jan 06, 2016 3:52 pm

MSN 211 EK #79 rolled out in TLS.


Roll Out msn211 F-WWSY 6/1/2016 by A380_TLS_A350, on Flickr
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Fri Jan 08, 2016 9:54 am

MSN 162 ex-BC #1 was on the move yesterday:


Msn162 7/1/2016 by A380_TLS_A350, on Flickr
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Tue Jan 12, 2016 1:13 pm

Production break even point will be further reduced to 20 units per year.

http://leehamnews.com/2016/01/12/airbus-annual-press-conference-2016/

Quote:
Airbus is still pursuing larger order for A380 but these takes time to mature. In the meantime efforts are underway to lover the production costs so that “cost break even will be just above 20 units per year” according to Bregier.
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Tue Jan 12, 2016 2:49 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 110):
Production break even point will be further reduced to 20 units per year.

This is significant. 27 had been mentioned previously, but the 20 figure is a massive improvement. I was expecting a further reduction to 24, but not as low as 20.
This means Airbus will in the future be able to break even at less than 2 Frames per month. That is essential to Bridge the gap to a potential post-2022 NEO.
 
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Tue Jan 12, 2016 2:55 pm

This might also explain why Airbus is in no rush to introduce the A380NEO anymore.

If we assume they would get 20 Frames in 2018, how much longer would the backlog last?
 
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Tue Jan 12, 2016 3:07 pm

20 frame / per year is closer to be sustainable with EK + current operator fleet renewal... if this want new A380 :d
 
art
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Tue Jan 12, 2016 4:08 pm

Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 112):
If we assume they would get 20 Frames in 2018, how much longer would the backlog last?

A few months less than it was going to be (on paper) if VS order A350-1000, as rumoured, at the expense of their A380 order..
 
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Tue Jan 12, 2016 4:13 pm

Quoting art (Reply 114):
A few months less than it was going to be (on paper) if VS order A350-1000, as rumoured, at the expense of their A380 order..

To underline the rumor:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...d-for-4-3-billion-airbus-a350-deal
 
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Tue Jan 12, 2016 5:06 pm

I wonder what the last year was when Airbus factored in Virgin A 380's into their production manifest? 3 years ago?
I guess there must be circa 120 A380's left to build? So at 20PCY then its 6 years.So Jan 2022 is the time any NEO must start -Assuming no new CEO orders over the next 6 years.I would have thought they might get a hand full or so over 6 years.
 
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Wed Jan 13, 2016 12:35 am

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 110):
Production break even point will be further reduced to 20 units per year.

http://leehamnews.com/2016/01/12/airbus-annual-press-conference-2016/

Quote:
Airbus is still pursuing larger order for A380 but these takes time to mature. In the meantime efforts are underway to lover the production costs so that “cost break even will be just above 20 units per year” according to Bregier.

Since I get called out for presumptive behavior, it's interesting how you've taken "efforts are underway" to mean "will" and "just above 20 units per year" to mean "20" instead of "21 or perhaps more"...

A fine New York financial newspaper reports it as:

Quote:
Mr. Brégier said Airbus is trying to lower build costs so the break-even point can be achieved even if the company builds only around 20 of the planes a year.

So I think a more cautious rendering is justified.

In any case, it sounds like it's the right goal, but unfortunately none of the reports offered a timeline. The math's been done here on a.net a few times and it often came up with a similar number.

Ref: http://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-...o-introduce-larger-a350-model.html
Ref: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/airbus...e-larger-a350-model-20160112-00357
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Wed Jan 13, 2016 9:26 am

Quoting Revelation (Reply 117):
Since I get called out for presumptive behavior, it's interesting how you've taken "efforts are underway" to mean "will" and "just above 20 units per year" to mean "20" instead of "21 or perhaps more"...

To me "efforts are underway" indicates that progress is already taking place (i.e. plans are being executed right now)?
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Wed Jan 13, 2016 9:56 am

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 109):
MSN 162 ex-BC #1 was on the move yesterday:

I know, right now the coverage of the movements in TLS by the local spotters is not that high, but do we know where it was moved to? Or was it just kind of a "walking-the-dog"?
 
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Wed Jan 13, 2016 11:57 am

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 118):
To me "efforts are underway" indicates that progress is already taking place (i.e. plans are being executed right now)?

"Progress" doesn't mean "attainment" or even "certain attainment." I would say Airbus thinks it has a decent chance of attaining break even at low-20's annual production. This is in line with the CFO's most recent guidance: that they'd maintain break even for 2016, and be as close as possible in 2017 at a lower rate.
 
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Wed Jan 13, 2016 12:10 pm

Deliveries should stay flat in 2016 and 2017.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSP6N12M0BS20160112

A lower rate can be expected from 2018.
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Wed Jan 13, 2016 12:26 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 121):
Deliveries should stay flat in 2016 and 2017.

They better find some customers for an additional 5-7 frames fast then. Need to start cutting metal within a couple months for parts of any 2017 deliveries.

Unless EK is going to bump up its deliveries again.
 
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Wed Jan 13, 2016 12:38 pm

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 122):
They better find some customers for an additional 5-7 frames fast then.

Just like this year EK will most likely take 21 frames. Then we have 2x EY, 2x OZ and 2x SQ, making a total of 27 frames for 2017.
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Wed Jan 13, 2016 1:07 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 117):
Since I get called out for presumptive behavior, it's interesting how you've taken "efforts are underway" to mean "will" and "just above 20 units per year" to mean "20" instead of "21 or perhaps more"...

While it is correct that we should not take this as an established, Bregier would not be publicly citing an pretty exact number if he didn't have somewhat confidence in it happening, he would just make a generic statement of the type "further reduce". 20-21 could be doable by 2018-19. The 4th A320 FAL at XFW is being built in facilities used for A380 up to now, so Airbus is clearly sizing down the production.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 121):
Deliveries should stay flat in 2016 and 2017.

A lower rate can be expected from 2018.

So, that would be 27 each. Let's guess 24 in 2018, 21-22 in 2019, and 20 in 2020 and onwards. The reliable A380 backlog is about 130. So if A380NEO were to EIS is in 2024-25, Airbus needs another 50-60 orders to fill the gap.
 
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Wed Jan 13, 2016 2:47 pm

MSN 220 EK #86 is now confirmed on convoy 2016 #1. Four more to go until the first RR powered EK A380 arrives.
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Wed Jan 13, 2016 2:48 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 118):
To me "efforts are underway" indicates that progress is already taking place (i.e. plans are being executed right now)?

Boeing also had efforts underway for the 787 to fly a few weeks after its 7/8/07 debut. Chances are good that Airbus will reach their goal, but right now it's a goal.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 121):
Deliveries should stay flat in 2016 and 2017.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSP6N12M0BS20160112

A lower rate can be expected from 2018.

Acutally, "similar" was used instead of "flat", but thanks for the updated information, especially the timeline. Not sure when they'll get to "just above 20 units per year" though.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 123):
Just like this year EK will most likely take 21 frames. Then we have 2x EY, 2x OZ and 2x SQ, making a total of 27 frames for 2017.

EK's rate of intake of widebodies still boggles the mind. They've just accepted their 72nd A380 and yet that's only half of their total order book of 140. If they keep taking 21/year (and there is some concern they can't due to DXB issues) they still have another three and a quarter years of deliveries coming.

Quoting r2rho (Reply 124):
pretty exact

Interesting choice of words. Usually "exact" doesn't take a modifier. "Exact" usually means "exact", not somewhat exact, kind of exact, almost exact. If he knows things so exactly it'd be nice if he gave a breakdown of the production targets per year.


Quoting r2rho (Reply 124):
So, that would be 27 each. Let's guess 24 in 2018, 21-22 in 2019, and 20 in 2020 and onwards. The reliable A380 backlog is about 130. So if A380NEO were to EIS is in 2024-25, Airbus needs another 50-60 orders to fill the gap.

Seems they need another EK to come along that will accept so many frames in such a relative short time period. That's hard to visualize especially since EK's current A380s will be coming off lease. I'm thinking that things get really shaky around 2019-20 and we'll see a "last call" for A380ceo and probable mothballs for the A380 production line thereafter.
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HALtheAI
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Wed Jan 13, 2016 3:38 pm

Quoting r2rho (Reply 124):
The reliable A380 backlog is about 130.

Umm, more like 90.

None of the following will get delivered:
Amedeo 20
Air France 2
Air Austral 2
Virgin Atlantic 6
Undisclosed (Hong Kong Airlines) 10
Transaero 3 (was 4, but Airbus has only cancelled 1 so far)

And the 8 for Qantas are highly dubious.
 
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Wed Jan 13, 2016 3:44 pm

Quoting HALtheAI (Reply 127):
None of the following will get delivered:

Watch out, you might "get called out for presumptive behavior"  

What about "might not" ....
 
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Wed Jan 13, 2016 3:52 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 126):
Acutally, "similar" was used instead of "flat", but thanks for the updated information, especially the timeline. Not sure when they'll get to "just above 20 units per year" though.

Look, we can nitpick as much as we want, keep in mind English is not my mother tongue. So I will always find it difficult to explain what I mean. The way I understand it, 1 delivery more or less can also be defined as "flat". Airbus delivered 6 more planes in 2015 than the year before, and called it "flat". That's how I interpret the definition of "flat".

Now looking at the production lists, deliveries would look as follow:

2016
> EK: 21x
> EY: 3x
> BA: 2x
> QR: 1x

Total: 27

2017
> EK: 21x
> OZ: 2x
> EY: 2x
> SQ: 2x

Total: 27

[Edited 2016-01-13 07:55:36]
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speedbored
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Wed Jan 13, 2016 4:17 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 129):
Look, we can nitpick as much as we want, but English is not my mother tongue. So I will always find it difficult to explain what I mean.

Please don't ever feel the need to apologise for the standard of your English. Your posts are far easier to understand than those from many native English speakers around here, and always informative. I, for one, totally appreciate how difficult it is to write anything in a foreign language, even ones I consider myself to be fluent in, and I have the utmost respect for people who take the time and effort to do it.

It's interesting to see how the argument has now changed from "Airbus will find it impossible to break even at any rate lower than 30", to nitpicking about how close to 20 they will be able to get.

Personally, I still think the A380 production rate will settle at around 2 per month, so 22-24 per year allowing for holidays. I don't see why people are interpreting the "get production break-even to just above 20" comment as "we will reduce the production rate to 20". If Airbus can get break-even down to ~20, while maintaining an actual rate above that, then they might just start making a unit profit.
 
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Revelation
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Wed Jan 13, 2016 9:33 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 129):
So I will always find it difficult to explain what I mean.

So a practical suggestion might be to use the word in the quoted article instead of choosing your own.

Quoting speedbored (Reply 130):
Please don't ever feel the need to apologise for the standard of your English. Your posts are far easier to understand than those from many native English speakers around here, and always informative. I, for one, totally appreciate how difficult it is to write anything in a foreign language, even ones I consider myself to be fluent in, and I have the utmost respect for people who take the time and effort to do it.

Me too. I'm a first generation immigrant and both my parents are not native English speakers. In turn they and my other older relatives appreciate my inputs on language instead of seeing them as criticisms.

Quoting speedbored (Reply 130):
It's interesting to see how the argument has now changed from "Airbus will find it impossible to break even at any rate lower than 30", to nitpicking about how close to 20 they will be able to get.

The argument changes all the time. Over time it's changed from "When will they launch the A389" to "Why are they cancelling the A380F" to "Will they ever hit program break even" to "When will they launch A380NEO" to "When will they hit production break even" to "Can they reach production break at 30/year" to "Can they reach production break even at something close to 20/year"...

I guess the only real constant question has been "When will the A380 production line shut down?" 
Quoting speedbored (Reply 130):
If Airbus can get break-even down to ~20, while maintaining an actual rate above that, then they might just start making a unit profit.

And that will be fine till the backlog is gone.
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SR4ever
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Wed Jan 13, 2016 10:03 pm

Any chance that EK takes over the 20 frames ordered by Amedoe, and other outstanding ones?
 
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HALtheAI
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Wed Jan 13, 2016 11:19 pm

The problem for EK is that DXB is filling up fast. The last 25 of their currently ordered 140 are already intended to be mostly replacements for early A380s coming off lease rather than for growth. Sir Timmy has said he doesn't expect EK to move into DWC until 2025, which coincidentally happens to match what the latest rumors are of an A380neo's EIS.
 
mjoelnir
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Thu Jan 14, 2016 12:59 am

Quoting HALtheAI (Reply 133):
The problem for EK is that DXB is filling up fast. The last 25 of their currently ordered 140 are already intended to be mostly replacements for early A380s coming off lease rather than for growth.

Were intended. Since than deliveries have been accelerated. 2020 the first four EK A380 will come of lease, by than all 140 now ordered will be delivered. 21 to be delivered in both 2016 and 2017.
There are 72 in operation now, 93 by the end of 2016, 114 end of 2017. That leaves 26 to be delivered in 2018 and 2019.
 
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speedbored
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Thu Jan 14, 2016 7:41 am

Quoting HALtheAI (Reply 133):
The problem for EK is that DXB is filling up fast. The last 25 of their currently ordered 140 are already intended to be mostly replacements for early A380s coming off lease rather than for growth.

It could be argued that this might be a good reason for ordering additional A380s sooner. Once DXB reaches slot saturation, EKs only option for continuing growth, until the move to DWC, will be to up-gauge routes to larger aircraft.
 
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Thu Jan 14, 2016 8:36 am

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 134):
There are 72 in operation now, 93 by the end of 2016, 114 end of 2017.

These are the two years announced as having similar production rate as to 2015 which was 27/year, and EK taking 21/year or so.

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 134):
That leaves 26 to be delivered in 2018 and 2019.

At the same time Airbus wants to descend from 27/year to around 20/year, it suggests EK would be at 13/year.

Quoting speedbored (Reply 135):
It could be argued that this might be a good reason for ordering additional A380s sooner. Once DXB reaches slot saturation, EKs only option for continuing growth, until the move to DWC, will be to up-gauge routes to larger aircraft.

I thought I read STC's concern with DXB wasn't necessarily slots, it was places to put all those A380s and 777s on the ground both on-gate and off-gate.

That being said, what is DXB's current and future slot allocation looking like, over-subscribed or under-subscribed? My guess would be over-subscribed.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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KarelXWB
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Thu Jan 14, 2016 9:17 am

Quoting Revelation (Reply 131):
So a practical suggestion might be to use the word in the quoted article instead of choosing your own.

Forum rules forbid to simply copy/paste stories in here, you need to add a little of your own.

Anyway, back on topic please.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Thu Jan 14, 2016 9:18 am

Yesterday MSN 210 EK #78 was ferried to XFW for cabin fit and painting.


Ferry flight msn210 F-WWST 13/1/2016 by A380_TLS_A350, on Flickr
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HALtheAI
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RE: A380 Production Thread Part 22

Thu Jan 14, 2016 9:30 am

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 134):
Were intended. Since than deliveries have been accelerated. 2020 the first four EK A380 will come of lease, by than all 140 now ordered will be delivered. 21 to be delivered in both 2016 and 2017.
There are 72 in operation now, 93 by the end of 2016, 114 end of 2017. That leaves 26 to be delivered in 2018 and 2019.

The only thing I've read about EK pushing up deliveries of the last tranche of 25 is this from last April:
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...zy-as-emirates-takes-trent-411342/
Quote:
Delivery of the second batch of 25 is “further out”, he says, but Emirates is “trying to advance some of them” to around 2019-20.
Clark did not clarify the number which might be brought forward but a delivery date before 2020 would appear to rule out any possibility of these A380s being fitted with a completely new engine.

Do you have anything newer?


Quoting speedbored (Reply 135):
Once DXB reaches slot saturation, EKs only option for continuing growth, until the move to DWC, will be to up-gauge routes to larger aircraft.

Which is why I've suggested in the past that EK should forego their 'regional' 787/A350 order in place of more A380s. With limited room at DXB, EK has to learn to prioritize. Plus the 787 and A350 programs are in no danger of being cancelled.

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