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usflyer msp
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RE: Delta Seeking To Start MSP-KEF Flights

Thu Dec 04, 2014 11:38 pm

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 49):
Again, you "run FI out" by flooding the market with capacity and cheap fares to the places people are going to... which isn't KEF.

No, you run FI out by targeting something that is very important to FI that you have limited exposure to like KEF O & D. Create an overcapacity situation on KEF - North America routes and FI is the one that suffers the most since it is their home market...

If they just launched some new routes to Europe or added a bunch of cheap fares to Europe, DL would just be hurting themselves...
 
usflyer msp
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RE: Delta Seeking To Start MSP-KEF Flights

Thu Dec 04, 2014 11:50 pm

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 37):
The "VFR" connection between the two sounds cutsy in theory, but doesn't exist. While there is always some interest to go visit one's heritage is not enough to fill daily flights between the two.

I would speculate that nowadays MSP - East Africa VFR traffic is probably greater than MSP - Scandinavia VFR traffic for most of the year (maybe not during the summer)...
 
mjoelnir
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RE: Delta Seeking To Start MSP-KEF Flights

Thu Dec 04, 2014 11:56 pm

I see it as a normal move by Delta. They have tried flying to KEF from JFK and it went well. Those are seasonal flights and Delta will increasing both the length of time and frequency. At the same time FI has added EWR four times a week and kept the winter flights daily and the summer flights twice a day.

MSP is a summer destination for FI, so the main reason for that flight should be tourism in both direction.
The traffic has been increasing. Not many years ago it was a twice a week operation during summer. This year FI started out with 4 times a week on the 13th of MAY, going daily through the main season, than going to four times a week ending on the 14th of October. FI had on average a load factor over 80%.

Delta has seen the increasing traffic MSP to KEF and wants a part of it. That is normal competition.

Icelandair has been growing about 15% each year the last years and has at the same time been facing a stiffening competition mainly on the Europian side.
As a year round competition there is Norwegian with BGO and OSL and Easyjet with BRS, EDI, GVA and LTN. There is WOWair the year round to Europe, doing USA flights the next summer and during summer season there were this year all together 24 airlines doing scheduled flights from and to KEF.

I do not expect FI to be shaking at the idea of Delta flying MSP-KEF-MSP. So IMO we see a pretty normal move on an airline like Delta seeing a possible growing market.
 
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lesfalls
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RE: Delta Seeking To Start MSP-KEF Flights

Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:21 am

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 27):
Norway used to have a consulate in MSP.

Denmark still does have one in MSP.
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MAH4546
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RE: Delta Seeking To Start MSP-KEF Flights

Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:30 am

Quoting MSP" class="quote" target="_blank">USFlyer MSP (Reply 51):
I would speculate that nowadays MSP - East Africa VFR traffic is probably greater than MSP - Scandinavia VFR traffic for most of the year (maybe not during the summer)...

The VFR component? Absolutely, I don't doubt it. MSPADD by itself is bigger than any MSP-Scandinavia city pair, but MSP-Scandinavia is a larger market.

VFR traffic to Eastern Africa is greatly overestimated, IMO. Outside of Ethiopians, once East Africans migrate to the United States, they largely don't visit home often, if ever.
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N908AW
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RE: Delta Seeking To Start MSP-KEF Flights

Fri Dec 05, 2014 3:24 am

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 52):
I do not expect FI to be shaking at the idea of Delta flying MSP-KEF-MSP. So IMO we see a pretty normal move on an airline like Delta seeing a possible growing market.

Thank you for a sensible reaction. FI will still probably capture enough traffic to sustain the route since they can dilute their exposure through offering connections -- which they've done for years. And DL probably feeds enough traffic to MSP to justify a 757 on the evening bank. Much of the western U.S. doesn't have a JFK flight anyway, so it becomes an option for more of the DL network.
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af773atmsp
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RE: Delta Seeking To Start MSP-KEF Flights

Fri Dec 05, 2014 4:17 am

So has their been an official announcement, or is it still a rumor?
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compensateme
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RE: Delta Seeking To Start MSP-KEF Flights

Sat Dec 06, 2014 7:44 am

Quoting USFlyer MSP (Reply 50):
No, you run FI out by targeting something that is very important to FI that you have limited exposure to like KEF O & D. Create an overcapacity situation on KEF - North America routes and FI is the one that suffers the most since it is their home market...

If they just launched some new routes to Europe or added a bunch of cheap fares to Europe, DL would just be hurting themselves...

Your logic is flawed. Few FI customers actually want to travel to KEF (although many are enticed by the free stopover to do so); if DL dumped capacity into KEF, it'd have minimal impact on FI since the latter would be getting the same fare composition to LON, CDG, etc. -- the places people flying on FI are going to. Thus, DL doing so would only be hurting itself.

But this is silly, anyway. The title of this thread is misleading -- a single source is reporting this and it's merely a rumor/speculation at this point. IMO, the odds of DL initiating a second flight into KEF are fairly low.
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LAX772LR
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RE: Delta Seeking To Start MSP-KEF Flights

Sat Dec 06, 2014 9:39 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 26):
No. By "tick off" he means trying to run a carrier out of a market that is likely depressing yields in the Minneapolis-Europe market. Please let's not pretend Delta welcomes Icelandair being in Minneapolis. That's ridiculous. Delta absolutely cares that Icelandair performs weakly in the MSP market.

You completely misread my post. I'm saying DL doesn't care at all about FI's wellbeing in the market, so of course they'll compete, regardless as to whether FI is "ticked off" or not.
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frostyj
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RE: Delta Seeking To Start MSP-KEF Flights

Sat Dec 06, 2014 9:47 am

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 52):

Easyjet will also launch from Belfast on December 14th.
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PGNCS
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RE: Delta Seeking To Start MSP-KEF Flights

Sat Dec 06, 2014 7:22 pm

Quoting af773atmsp (Reply 20):
But also, I don't see DL having much success on this route.

Explain your reasoning; if you can cite sources buttressing your position that would be appreciated.

Quoting PWMRamper (Reply 21):
The JFK-KEF flights are full and overbooked pretty much every day throughout the summer. Highly seasonal, but those planes are quite full, and from what I've seen, fares are high.

KEF in the summer is very full on DL and FI and many of those passengers are staying in Iceland (I have done it on FI myself.) The reason the high season is very expensive is that it's also very short in Iceland. Fares to Iceland in the summer are markedly high (of course most of Europe is higher too, though not necessarily to the same degree.)

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 52):
I see it as a normal move by Delta. They have tried flying to KEF from JFK and it went well. Those are seasonal flights and Delta will increasing both the length of time and frequency. At the same time FI has added EWR four times a week and kept the winter flights daily and the summer flights twice a day.

MSP is a summer destination for FI, so the main reason for that flight should be tourism in both direction.
The traffic has been increasing. Not many years ago it was a twice a week operation during summer. This year FI started out with 4 times a week on the 13th of MAY, going daily through the main season, than going to four times a week ending on the 14th of October. FI had on average a load factor over 80%.

Delta has seen the increasing traffic MSP to KEF and wants a part of it. That is normal competition.

Thank you. By far the most reasoned and invective-free response in the thread. It's a moneymaker in the summer for FI, so why would DL want to lose significant revenue on a route out of one of its hubs that it has a reasonable chance of capturing (especially from the people in the US connecting to go to Iceland.) Apparently JFK-KEF has done well for DL, so why would they want to cede revenue to a competitor? (NB: Has this even been confirmed by anyone yet?)

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 58):
You completely misread my post. I'm saying DL doesn't care at all about FI's wellbeing in the market, so of course they'll compete

That is a perfectly reasonable statement.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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RE: Delta Seeking To Start MSP-KEF Flights

Sat Dec 06, 2014 8:26 pm

This move is clearly to run Iceland off I'm sure. They must see Icelandair as lowering the prices in too many markets.

I think its a smart move for Delta it can't be hard to run Iceland out of town. dirty yes but it will probably work.

I doubt there is much traffic to Scandinavia that's all old immigration. I bet Iceland is getting passengers to the big markets London, Germany etc and they Just wanna run a low price competitor out who is lowering prices.
 
mjoelnir
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RE: Delta Seeking To Start MSP-KEF Flights

Sat Dec 06, 2014 8:30 pm

In Icelandic: http://www.alltumflug.is/flugfrettir...flav%C3%ADkur_fr%C3%A1_Minneapolis

Starting 1st of June ending 2nd of September. Daily, from MSP DL180 landing in KEF at 20:00. Return flight DL 181 at 21:45 from KEF.

I still think that move is only to earn money by taking part in the high season. To run FI out of MSP they would need to fly MSP-KEF-MSP a bigger part of the year.
The arrival and departure time for the Delta flight does not correspond well to flights from and to Europe, Connecting passengers would be in for a longish wait.

[Edited 2014-12-06 12:38:08]
 
Thule
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RE: Delta Seeking To Start MSP-KEF Flights

Sat Dec 06, 2014 11:08 pm

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 62):
Starting 1st of June ending 2nd of September. Daily, from MSP DL180 landing in KEF at 20:00. Return flight DL 181 at 21:45 from KEF.

Very interesting. I wonder if we'll see any changes to this schedule once we see a more official source. Like you said, not a good schedule for connections on either end, except for maybe those departing through MSP, though they'll have to spend the night somewhere on a return flight.

Well, now that we have some actual information, let's return to the important topics: denying that Iceland has any tourism market, nitpicking the finest details of Minnesota's Scandinavian demographics, and getting extremely upset at each other when speculating about DL's financial motivations!

  
 
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KaiGywer
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RE: Delta Seeking To Start MSP-KEF Flights

Sat Dec 06, 2014 11:25 pm

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 27):
Then why do they share an embassy with NO, SE, & DK in Berlin?

Shared office space is cheaper than their own. If you indeed are Norwegian as your flag shows, you know the difference between "Skandinavia" (NO,DK,SE) and "Norden" (adds FI,IS)

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 27):
Not per se- But a lot of of Scandinavians live there and are really proud of their heritage. Norway used to have a consulate in MSP.
Quoting Someone83 (Reply 31):
"Used to" is the key here

It's still there in a limited fashion.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 37):
The "VFR" connection between the two sounds cutsy in theory, but doesn't exist. While there is always some interest to go visit one's heritage is not enough to fill daily flights between the two.

And with KL having a ton flights to Scandinavia through AMS, there is plenty of space to get to most of Scandinavia south of TRD one stop.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 54):
Outside of Ethiopians, once East Africans migrate to the United States, they largely don't visit home often, if ever.

Exactly. There is a reason they come here on refugee status. They're in no hurry to return.
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enilria
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RE: Delta Seeking To Start MSP-KEF Flights

Sat Dec 06, 2014 11:41 pm

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 62):
I still think that move is only to earn money by taking part in the high season. To run FI out of MSP they would need to fly MSP-KEF-MSP a bigger part of the year.

Except FI probably only makes money during the time DL is poisoning the water supply.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 61):
This move is clearly to run Iceland off I'm sure. They must see Icelandair as lowering the prices in too many markets.

Yup
 
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compensateme
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RE: Delta Seeking To Start MSP-KEF Flights

Sun Dec 07, 2014 12:27 am

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 62):
Starting 1st of June ending 2nd of September. Daily, from MSP DL180 landing in KEF at 20:00. Return flight DL 181 at 21:45 from KEF.

I still think that move is only to earn money by taking part in the high season. To run FI out of MSP they would need to fly MSP-KEF-MSP a bigger part of the year.
The arrival and departure time for the Delta flight does not correspond well to flights from and to Europe, Connecting passengers would be in for a longish wait.

There's no way these departure/arrival times would ever happen -- the inbound flight from KEF would arrive in MSP past 10PM local time, well past its final departure bank (and that's not considering transit through customs/immigration).

Until I see it confirmed by a reputable source, I'll continue to be skeptical.
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af773atmsp
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RE: Delta Seeking To Start MSP-KEF Flights

Sun Dec 07, 2014 5:23 am

Quoting PGNCS (Reply 60):
Explain your reasoning; if you can cite sources buttressing your position that would be appreciated.

As many others have stated FI is successful at MSP because of connections to many European destinations via their KEF hub. Its a cheaper alternative to Europe over the legacy carriers (which my family took advantage of in 2011 to travel to Munich and London).

DL would be relying on people who want to travel directly to/from Iceland. I don't have statistics for the O&D between MSP and KEF, but I feel it is low (someone correct me if I'm wrong).
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Viscount724
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RE: Delta Seeking To Start MSP-KEF Flights

Sun Dec 07, 2014 5:36 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 54):
Outside of Ethiopians, once East Africans migrate to the United States, they largely don't visit home often, if ever.

How do you know that?
 
alfa164
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RE: Delta Seeking To Start MSP-KEF Flights

Sun Dec 07, 2014 12:45 pm

Quoting Frostyj (Reply 59):
Easyjet will also launch from Belfast on December 14th.

Now all the Anet conspiracy theorists will claim Easyjet is trying to run FI out of that market...   
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airbazar
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RE: Delta Seeking To Start MSP-KEF Flights

Sun Dec 07, 2014 1:11 pm

Quoting MSP" class="quote" target="_blank">USFlyer MSP (Reply 32):

They are trying to make sure that MSP-KEF is so unprofitable that FI drops it, then DL won't have to worry about the MSP-KEF-Europe traffic...
FI doesn't care about KEF-MSP. DL can take 100% of that traffic and FI will still do well on the route.

Quoting RKSofACinUSA (Reply 41):
I may a bit naive but I refuse to be that cynical. FI has been flying this route since the 1990's and suddenly DL decides one day to destroy the route for them for no good reason?

Destroy how? DL is entering US-KEF via MSP. FI's market is MSP-Europe via KEF. Two separate and independent markets. The O&D market is not reason why FI flies the route.

Quoting MSP" class="quote" target="_blank">USFlyer MSP (Reply 50):
No, you run FI out by targeting something that is very important to FI that you have limited exposure to like KEF O & D

O&D is NOT THAT important to FI. Connecting traffic to Europe is. They make money by selling cheaper TATL fares and compensating it by selling higher yield stop-overs. That's been FI's business model for 30 years. More info here:
http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...provides-profits-and-growth-127538

[Edited 2014-12-07 05:23:52]
 
ETOPS333
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RE: Delta Seeking To Start MSP-KEF Flights

Sun Dec 07, 2014 2:01 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 70):
O&D is NOT THAT important to FI. Connecting traffic to Europe is. They make money by selling cheaper TATL fares and compensating it by selling higher yield stop-overs. That's been FI's business model for 30 years. More info here:
http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...27538

One of the charts in that link (under the section "Passenger growth is driven by connecting passengers") shows traffic to/from KEF makes up over 50% of Icelandair's traffic.Wouldn't that suggest KEF O&D is very important to Icelandair?

  
 
SCQ83
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RE: Delta Seeking To Start MSP-KEF Flights

Sun Dec 07, 2014 2:03 pm

I don't think you can remotely compare JFK to MSP.

New York is a major tourism destination for Icelanders and Europeans flying on Icelandair.

DL at JFK has also a very large and international home base (NYC) to travel everywhere (Iceland in this case), and it is a perfect connection point for passengers from Iceland to their Delta network.

The two carriers can coexist at NYC because it is simply such a large local market and tourist/VFR destination for Europeans. Which is not the case at MSP.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 70):
Destroy how? DL is entering US-KEF via MSP

DL already flies US-KEF via JFK.
 
mjoelnir
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RE: Delta Seeking To Start MSP-KEF Flights

Sun Dec 07, 2014 2:54 pm

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 72):

It is always difficult to read statistics and more difficult to make them.

Yes the statistic for Icelandair shows 50% O&D traffic. But here we get to the problem with statistic regarding stop over.

We have people flying from an airport in North America to KEF and a few days or perhaps weeks on to Europe or vice versa. How do we count O%D, when stopover and when transit. Is transit only when the passenger does not leave the airport? We do not have a category in statistics for stopover and how do we define it, how many days max?
We do not distinguish between O&D coming in one way and going out another way from coming from one place and going back to the same place.

So let us look at some facts regarding Icelandair and KEF.

The yearly passenger numbers of KEF are growing faster, 18 to 20% than Icelandair, 12 to 15%.
Most of the competition to Icelandair is seasonal, flying only from June to the beginning of September and serving the tourist trade.
Easyjet, Norwegian and WOWair are flying the year round but are mainly after O&D.
WOWair will try the transit market next year with flights from the UK to North America via KEF.

Icelandair has been in the last years concentrated on growing the transit or connection business. Trying to get less seasonal and perhaps not fighting for every passenger in the season, but growing the business in the off season.
50% O&D can hide a lot of "stopover" passenger having a look at Iceland on a Europe or the other way USA trip.

So the counter move from Icelandair to Delta flying MSP-KEF-MSP during the season, could be extending the time, for example starting in April or March and ending end of October, or going to around the year, and not increasing the frequency during the summer season to daily.
 
ETOPS333
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RE: Delta Seeking To Start MSP-KEF Flights

Mon Dec 08, 2014 4:51 am

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 73):
Yes the statistic for Icelandair shows 50% O&D traffic. But here we get to the problem with statistic regarding stop over.


The point is that O&D traffic is an important part of Icelandair's network. I can't imagine that stop over traffic makes up such a substantial portion of Icelandair's traffic that it bloats the O&D numbers from something miniscule to over 50% of their total traffic.

Even if that's the case, the stop-over traffic is not immune from competition. There's nothing stopping a passenger from booking Delta to KEF for the first stop on their vacation, then choosing from a number of options into Europe on other carriers and ultimately flying back to the US via Delta.
 
airbazar
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RE: Delta Seeking To Start MSP-KEF Flights

Mon Dec 08, 2014 3:22 pm

Quoting ETOPS333 (Reply 71):

One of the charts in that link (under the section "Passenger growth is driven by connecting passengers") shows traffic to/from KEF makes up over 50% of Icelandair's traffic.Wouldn't that suggest KEF O&D is very important to Icelandair?

Not from MSP. The vast majority of this O&D is to/from Scandinavia as the report states, some to the rest of Europe and a little to BOS/JFK.

Quoting ETOPS333 (Reply 74):
The point is that O&D traffic is an important part of Icelandair's network.

It is, just not from MSP or most US cities for that matter.

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