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Mortyman
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Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Sun Dec 07, 2014 1:39 am

Why so little US presence at OSL ?


Only United With a Boeing 757 ...

Even though both SAS and Norwegian has routes to the US from OSL now, I think that the Norwegian Public would welcome more US presence and the airport and aviation market could handle it too.


Has US based airlines become very conservative in their route planning ?

Thoughts ?

[Edited 2014-12-06 17:50:08]
 
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fxramper
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Sun Dec 07, 2014 2:13 am

The UA flight from EWR has good numbers. Didn't DL try and do a seasonal JFK-OSL?
 
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Sun Dec 07, 2014 3:12 am

Quoting fxramper (Reply 1):
The UA flight from EWR has good numbers. Didn't DL try and do a seasonal JFK-OSL?

I don't think Delta has flown to Oslo since the 90's. US Airways flew for a year or so to OSL, but that has ended a long time ago.

Was a bigger presence of US Airlines in Oslo in the 60's, 70's, 80's and 90's
 
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LAXintl
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Sun Dec 07, 2014 3:24 am

Look at the size of the market. Besides being very small its very seasonal, and heavily Norway point of sale. Not the best metrics for US carrier.

One reason UA can hang on is because the route is part of the A++ JV with SK.
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Sun Dec 07, 2014 3:26 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 3):
Look at the size of the market.

The Norwegian aviation market is big and the Norwegian public travels alot and are the ones in Scandinavia who travel most on business class too from what I have read.

Why do you say seasonal ?

[Edited 2014-12-06 19:28:00]
 
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Sun Dec 07, 2014 3:39 am

How big is Norway - USA market really?

Quoting Mortyman (Reply 4):
The Norwegian aviation market is big and the Norwegian public travels alot and are the ones in Scandinavia who travel most on business class too from what I have read.

You describe part of the problem. Norwegians travel. Not Americans.

A US airline strength is its US point of sale so they seek to serve markets where they can sell well form their home market.
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Sun Dec 07, 2014 3:53 am

Quoting Mortyman (Reply 4):
Why do you say seasonal ?

Because a short 3-month summer period sees nearly half of annual foreign visitors

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 5):
How big is Norway - USA market really?

Scandinavia-USA market size comparison in 2013:

Sweden: 476,571
Denmark: 369,496
Norway: 284,311
Finland: 127,978
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Sun Dec 07, 2014 3:56 am

I'm sure the presence of Norwegian and its price competition cant help the case for US airlines serving Oslo either.
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Sun Dec 07, 2014 4:03 am

Quoting fxramper (Reply 1):

The UA flight from EWR has good numbers. Didn't DL try and do a seasonal JFK-OSL?


No. The last time DL served Oslo was early 1990's, with flights from JFK to now closed FBU on A310s inherited from Pan Am. The route was also inherited from PA.

Thè only other US carriers other than CO/UA to try flights to Oslo was NW. They flew MSP-OSL for about six months in 1999. As well as US for a short period several years back.

[Edited 2014-12-06 20:05:05]
 
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Sun Dec 07, 2014 4:10 am

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 7):
I'm sure the presence of Norwegian and its price competition cant help the case for US airlines serving Oslo either.

Wasn't really any more US Airlines at OSL before Norwegian started longhaul ... Besides, the fact that Norwegian now has several routes from OSL to the US, I would say shows how underserved OSL / Norway has been / is.

Quoting pwm2txlhopper (Reply 8):
No. The last time DL served Oslo was early 1990's, with flights from JFK to now closed FBU on A310s inherited from Pan Am. The route was also inherited from PA.

Thè only other US carriers other than CO/UA to try flights to Oslo was NW. They flew MSP-OSL for about six months in 1999. As well as US for a short period several years back.

TWA flew to FBU too

[Edited 2014-12-06 20:19:12]
 
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Sun Dec 07, 2014 4:31 am

Quoting Mortyman (Reply 9):
I would say shows how underserved OSL / Norway has been / is.

Its not only OSL but also BGO and other towns in Norway(In the summer its underserved). Norwegian planes to start new services from other cities in Norway to the US which shows how underserved the whole of Norway is.
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Sun Dec 07, 2014 5:43 am

Quoting Mortyman (Reply 4):
Why do you say seasonal ?

Probably for similar reasons why travel to Canada is highly seasonal. Not many tourists, apart from some skiers, want to visit most of Canada in January.

And, in general, longhaul travel to virtually all of Europe is much lower in winter than summer.
 
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Sun Dec 07, 2014 8:37 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 3):

One reason UA can hang on is because the route is part of the A++ JV with SK

SAS is not part of the A++ JV. The UA flight is Øivind by utdelt and has apperabtly dine good all the time sine CO started it in 2004, with good yields

Quoting Mortyman (Reply 2):

Quoting fxramper (Reply 1):
US Airways flew for a year or so to OSL, but that has ended a long time ago.

US flew summer seasonal OSL-PHL in 2009 and 2010, but withdrew when SAS restarted OSL-EWR in 2011
 
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Sun Dec 07, 2014 9:45 am

Quoting Mortyman (Reply 9):
TWA flew to FBU too

TWA flew Tristars and B767s into FBU from 1987 to 1991. The routing cjanged every season but they often paired it with ARN. The route was JFK-FBU-ARN-JFK.
Then one day TWA got a block booking of over 200 pax from FBU-JFK, and the planners decided to run the route the other way round. But somehow they overlooked the fact that a MTOW Tristar was never going to get out of FBU. After a couple of hours delay, it flew to Gardemoan for refuelling.
 
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Sun Dec 07, 2014 10:32 am

Quoting pwm2txlhopper (Reply 8):
They flew MSP-OSL for about six months in 1999.

NW was seasonally flying the route as early as 1986 from what was then GDM (now OSL).

The Oslo metro area is only about 800,000 vs. CPH and ARN which are around 2 million.
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Sun Dec 07, 2014 10:34 am

Quoting pwm2txlhopper (Reply 8):

Which makes sense based on demographics (if that means anything.) Lot's of Norwegian blood in MSP
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Sun Dec 07, 2014 1:44 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 6):
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 6):

Quoting Mortyman (Reply 4):
Why do you say seasonal ?

Because a short 3-month summer period sees nearly half of annual foreign visitors

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 5):
How big is Norway - USA market really?

Scandinavia-USA market size comparison in 2013:

Sweden: 476,571
Denmark: 369,496
Norway: 284,311
Finland: 127,978

Wrong numbers:

Inbound Scandinavians to the US 2013
Sweden 442.013
Denmark 271.363
Norway 262.822

http://travel.trade.gov/view/m-2013-...ts/top_40_countries_annual2013.xls

For 2014, Norwegians is for the first time bigger than Danes on inbound US Traffic.

The Norway - USA market is about one million pax annually. OSL holds bit over 70% of this share.

OSL - USA direct links

UA-EWR
SK-EWR
DU-JFK
DU-FLL
DU-MCO
DU-LAX
DU-OAK

Roumors for next year is two new US services by SK from OSL.
The biggest problem for US carriers by now is that SAS refuses to cooperate outside CPH.
OSL and ARN must make services work based on local demand and limited transfer.
 
arn777
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Sun Dec 07, 2014 3:57 pm

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 15):


The Oslo metro area is only about 800,000 vs. CPH and ARN which are around 2 million.

That is not correct. Oslo metro area has about 1.5 millions.
 
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Sun Dec 07, 2014 7:35 pm

Quoting g2scandinavia (Reply 16):
Roumors for next year is two new US services by SK from OSL.

Next us destenation will probably be ORD. OSL is looking for a carrier to operate it .
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Sun Dec 07, 2014 8:01 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 6):
Scandinavia-USA market size comparison in 2013:

Sweden: 476,571
Denmark: 369,496
Norway: 284,311
Finland: 127,978

Those numbers are pointless. Norwegians travel more per person than all other Scandinavians. Also, you're not including Norwegians that currently travel via London, Amsterdam, Copenhagen, Frankfurt and so on.

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 14):
The Oslo metro area is only about 800,000 vs. CPH and ARN which are around 2 million.

No, it's 1,5 million.

Quoting Mortyman (Reply 9):
... Besides, the fact that Norwegian now has several routes from OSL to the US, I would say shows how underserved OSL / Norway has been / is.

Exactly.

Back in the 70s, 80s, 90s there was a lot more US airline presence at Norwegian airports. Even PanAm flew to Bergen. The market today is a lot better, but Norwegians fly via all the bigger hubs because there's a limited direct service. That's mostly SAS's fault for focusing on CPH, letting airlines like KLM fly hundreds of pax from all over Norway to AMS daily. And many of them are transfer pax. Same with BA to London. Norwegian is now expanding direct service, and SAS will have to do the same thing.. and I know it's part of their future plans when the new widebodies start arriving.
 
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Sun Dec 07, 2014 8:06 pm

Quoting JetBuddy (Reply 19):
and I know it's part of their future plans when the new widebodies start arriving.

Are these widebodies your talking about for SAS or DY because DY plans to use the 737-MAX to start longhaul operations from smaller cities in Norway.
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Sun Dec 07, 2014 10:48 pm

Quoting lesfalls (Reply 20):
Are these widebodies your talking about for SAS or DY because DY plans to use the 737-MAX to start longhaul operations from smaller cities in Norway.

SK, when they start receiving their A330-300 Enhanced and A350-900. They'll use this for increasing direct routes out of Oslo and Stockholm, possibly other airports as well.

But regarding DY, it's interesting that they've talked about using the 737-8 MAX for long haul.. I also read an article where Kjos mentioned it. But will the MAX really get that range? We know the A321neoLR will.. but the MAX?
 
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Mon Dec 08, 2014 1:20 am

Quoting JetBuddy (Reply 19):
Those numbers are pointless. Norwegians travel more per person than all other Scandinavians. Also, you're not including Norwegians that currently travel via London, Amsterdam, Copenhagen, Frankfurt and so on.

Not really.

Norway is a country of 5 million people, or in other words, the size of an one average sized US state. Is it really that surprising there isn't more service to and from Norway?

If the market was there, it would be served. Obviously, it's not there.
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Mon Dec 08, 2014 5:59 am

Quoting 777stl (Reply 22):
If the market was there, it would be served. Obviously, it's not there.

Then how do you explain the multiple flights of Norwegian and also SAS ? Some years back, these were non existent
 
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Mon Dec 08, 2014 6:20 am

Quoting JetBuddy (Reply 19):
Those numbers are pointless. Norwegians travel more per person than all other Scandinavians. Also, you're not including Norwegians that currently travel via London, Amsterdam, Copenhagen, Frankfurt and so on.

How on earth are those numbers pointless? And those numbers absolutely include Norwegians that travel via London, Amsterdam, etc.
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Mon Dec 08, 2014 7:09 am

Quoting pwm2txlhopper (Reply 8):
NW. They flew MSP-OSL for about six months in 1999

Thought it'd been around for years.

Quoting Mortyman (Reply 23):
Then how do you explain the multiple flights of Norwegian and also SAS ?

I think someone had already said that the market is heavily Norway-originating. This will lend itself to Norwegian carriers much more than US carriers.

I'm kinda surprised at all the back-and-forth on this. If we know that Norwegians are MUCH more likely to travel internationally than Americans, why would it surprise anyone that American carriers would shun OSL? If anything someone should be asking "Why don't the Norwegian carriers fly more between OSL and the US?"

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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Mon Dec 08, 2014 5:47 pm

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 25):
I think someone had already said that the market is heavily Norway-originating. This will lend itself to Norwegian carriers much more than US carriers.

I'm kinda surprised at all the back-and-forth on this. If we know that Norwegians are MUCH more likely to travel internationally than Americans, why would it surprise anyone that American carriers would shun OSL? If anything someone should be asking "Why don't the Norwegian carriers fly more between OSL and the US?"

No, 50 % are Americans and OSL is also used by many US passengers as a transfer point to Asia. On some Norwegian 787 flights almost 200 of the passengers have been transfer passengers to Asia from the US. This according to Norwegian.

DU's American Pax Use OSL As Transit To Asia/US (by Mortyman Nov 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)
 
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Mon Dec 08, 2014 6:05 pm

Quoting Mortyman (Thread starter):
Thoughts ?

One of the big drivers here is the alliances, particularly ones featuring antitrust-immunized joint ventures. When such a venture is present, it gives the airline substantial incentive to avoid direct flights and instead shuttle passengers over alliance partners' European hubs because they get substantial revenue sharing on the itinerary without having to take the risk of flying a long and thin route themselves.

OSL in particular isn't a bad connection from most of the northern European gateways, which would include DL/AF/KL going through AMS and AA/BA through LHR. One of the reasons UA has that direct flight is that their JV partners don't have quite as good a location for that connection. FRA is a slight disadvantage to AMS, particularly given how heavily KLM covers Norway and SAS isn't in the JV.

A second point is that OSL is not much better of a connecting point for the rest of Norway than several other hubs, particularly once you factor in the sizes of those hubs. That is, if you're flying

One must also not forget FI, which has a lot of fairly convenient and decently cheap flights for US-originating passengers. They also cover BGO, TRD, and SVG, which I'd imagine diverts a lot of the US-originating tourist traffic bound for places other than OSL, and of course they fly to OSL as well.

[Edited 2014-12-08 10:06:08]
 
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Mon Dec 08, 2014 7:59 pm

Quoting 777stl (Reply 22):
Not really.

Norway is a country of 5 million people, or in other words, the size of an one average sized US state. Is it really that surprising there isn't more service to and from Norway?

If the market was there, it would be served. Obviously, it's not there.

Like I've said earlier, the market is there.. but the pax is being flown to other hubs instead of direct routes. Is there really any point in repeating my previous post? 5 million people or 15 million people doesn't matter.

The people in your average US state (as in your example) don't fly as much as the average Norwegian does. Not even half as much. Norwegians travel way more than Americans do, and the Norwegian income is also higher.

Also, Norwegians fly more than other Scandinavians per capita, and they fly a lot more premium as well.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 25):
'm kinda surprised at all the back-and-forth on this. If we know that Norwegians are MUCH more likely to travel internationally than Americans, why would it surprise anyone that American carriers would shun OSL? If anything someone should be asking "Why don't the Norwegian carriers fly more between OSL and the US?"

Yes you're right. And that's because SAS have been funnelling their pax via CPH. KLM is flying pax to AMS, BA to London and so on.
 
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Mon Dec 08, 2014 8:02 pm

Quoting JetBuddy (Reply 28):
Like I've said earlier, the market is there.. but the pax is being flown to other hubs instead of direct routes. Is there really any point in repeating my previous post? 5 million people or 15 million people doesn't matter.

Yes, because you are wrong. The market is approximately ~285,000 annual passengers including people transiting through other hubs.

Oslo-U.S. is very, very well served with Norwegian, United and SAS.
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Mon Dec 08, 2014 8:14 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 29):
slo-U.S. is very, very well served with Norwegian, United and SAS.

No sir, you are wrong. There's plenty of demand for direct routes, the point is that most people fly via CPH, AMS, FRA, LHR. If a US airline or a Norwegian/Scandinavian one opened more direct routes, they would take pax from the transfer pool.

Why on earth do you think both SAS and Norwegian are opening new direct routes?
 
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Mon Dec 08, 2014 8:36 pm

Quoting JetBuddy (Reply 28):
Like I've said earlier, the market is there.. but the pax is being flown to other hubs instead of direct routes.

O&D numbers are inclusive of connections.
Does not matter if one is routed nonstop, or via multiple connections on a single ticket. Either manner they are counted.

The market numbers are what they are. What they might become in the future is anyone's guess, but there is no debate as to what they are to date.
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Tue Dec 09, 2014 4:43 am

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 15):


Which makes sense based on demographics (if that means anything.) Lot's of Norwegian blood in MSP

And I'm part Irish, Scottish and Dutch. I've been to Amsterdam once in 1983, same with Scotland, and never to Ireland. My "blood" doesn't prompt me to head back to the "motherland", my preferences send me to New Orleans, Palm Springs, Key West, Reno and Portland Me. SO?
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g2scandinavia
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Tue Dec 09, 2014 5:37 am

Quoting JetBuddy (Reply 30):

Like I've said earlier, the market is there.. but the pax is being flown to other hubs instead of direct routes. Is there really any point in repeating my previous post? 5 million people or 15 million people doesn't matter.

Yes, because you are wrong. The market is approximately ~285,000 annual passengers including people transiting through other hubs.

As usual, you are refering to invorrect numbers.
It's beginning to be pathetic!

US goverment shows over 500.000 pax to/from USA holding a Norwegian passport.
Transfer other countries + Americans are not included in theese numbers.
Avinor reports 1 million pax between Norway and USA pr year.

Direct capacity to/from OSL-US will in 2015 be 540.00 seats.

[Edited 2014-12-08 21:44:30]
 
Someone83
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Tue Dec 09, 2014 6:06 am

Quoting Mortyman (Reply 26):
No, 50 % are Americans

Are you sure about these number? I've never seen figures that shows 50% of the passengers between US and Norway is American
 
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Tue Dec 09, 2014 6:29 am

Would a summer seasonal JFK-OSL on DL be viable under the DL/KL/AF trans-Atlantic joint venture? It seems KLM has a large market presence in Norway so they could still benefit from such a flight.
 
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Tue Dec 09, 2014 7:51 am

Quoting TR1 (Reply 35):
It seems KLM has a large market presence in Norway so they could still benefit from such a flight.

If by "benefit" you mean "steal from their AMS connecting banks" then absolutely.  

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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Tue Dec 09, 2014 8:45 am

Quoting g2scandinavia (Reply 33):
As usual, you are refering to invorrect numbers.
It's beginning to be pathetic!

No, the numbers are absolutely correct and are MIDT figures. They accurately reflect the size of the Norway-U.S. local market and include passengers that connect via a third point such as CPH between Norway and the States, while they do not include passengers that fly between Norway and the States and connect to a third country, which Norwegian carries a significant amount of.
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Tue Dec 09, 2014 8:51 am

Quoting Mortyman (Reply 4):
The Norwegian aviation market is big and the Norwegian public travels alot

Despite your protestations, it is not that big. Populationwise, the whole of Norway is roughly the size of the conurbation of Berlin - and probably faces the same problems that are the reason for a lack of US flights: Relatively little business-related travel. A good indicator probably is also the size of OSL - at 22m pax, it is not that big either (roughly the size of DUS, for example) and almost 50 per cent of its passengers are domestic.
 
g2scandinavia
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Tue Dec 09, 2014 9:25 am

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 37):
No, the numbers are absolutely correct and are MIDT figures. They accurately reflect the size of the Norway-U.S. local market and include passengers that connect via a third point such as CPH between Norway and the States, while they do not include passengers that fly between Norway and the States and connect to a third country, which Norwegian carries a significant amount of.

For 5 years I have been witness to your MIDT figures in so many threads where they have been proved wrong by secure References and statistics.
For the future, please dig into the traffic numbers between USL – MXV and se what you get…..
 
g2scandinavia
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RE: Why So Little US Presence At OSL?

Tue Dec 09, 2014 9:41 am

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 38):
Despite your protestations, it is not that big. Populationwise, the whole of Norway is roughly the size of the conurbation of Berlin - and probably faces the same problems that are the reason for a lack of US flights: Relatively little business-related travel. A good indicator probably is also the size of OSL - at 22m pax, it is not that big either (roughly the size of DUS, for example) and almost 50 per cent of its passengers are domestic.

I have to agree with you here. Norway is not a big market.
Although with the 2014 numbers, it’s expected to be among the top 20 of inbound markets to the US, it’s limited how much more it can grow on local demand.
Ruffly 7% of the Norwegian population will travel to the US this year, witch is high in terms of frequency pr Norwegian citizen.

When it comes to business traffic, both Avinor and the airlines reports and refer to Norway as very strong high yield market.
Both for leisure and business purposes.
Most airlines have also benchmarked the Nordic countries with significant leap up to Norway when it comes to percentage of business and first class seats sold.
Not surprisingly, both Houston and Washington have 70% business from Norway. Both Chicago and New York also holds a large percentage of business travelers. From sources within Norwegian, I have also heard that their “business light” product sells in load percentage faster than economy on especially LAX, OAK and FLL.

So no, the Norwegian market is not big, nor is it significant, but within its size and when compared to similar sized countries, it’s quite extraordinary in terms of frequency and yield.

However I doubt that we will se any US carriers soon. The next expansion will be trough Norwegian and SAS.

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