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WesternDC6B
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 6:39 am

Quoting na (Reply 13):
And its a "cold" product, a long distance bus with nothing of the aura of the 747.

When I am made subject to 31" seat pitch, narrow seats, plastic food, and stuffy cabins, the "aura" of what contains it all is the furthest thing from my mind. I'll take comfort on a non-aura aircraft like a 767 or an A330 ANY time over the gee-whiz factor of flying in the 1960s-era "queen of the skies".

That comfort is airline-dependent, not dependent on the aircraft involved.
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Max Q
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 6:53 am

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 3):
It's the obsolete relic of a bygone era, that doesn't do anything particularly well anymore. At the risk of sounding too Disney: Let it go!

Interesting but unenlightened opinion. This 'relic' does many missions extremely well, it is still a superb passenger aircraft loved by most and can still make money in that role, especially the intercontinental version that LH is now using.


But as a Freighter it is unsurpassed and the orders show it, its capabilities and economy of operation are outstanding and unique, nothing else comes close.


This may be the beginning of the end for the production line but the Queen of the skies will always rule.
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


GGg
 
PHX787
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 7:11 am

Did KZ ntu one of those current white tails, or did KZ get all of their orders properly?
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BiggerJetsPlz
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 7:17 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 53):
Did KZ ntu one of those current white tails, or did KZ get all of their orders properly?

KZ has taken seven and is about to take their eighth built frame this month. They have another six still on the order books, but they haven't been allocated in the build order yet.
 
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817Dreamliiner
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 7:18 am

Quoting 747400sp (Reply 29):
Yes it may be the best plane built today, but it still a boring sole less aircraft. Look, us quad fans are really having a hard time avaition wise, so I do not think there is anything wrong with bashing the 77W. The 747 was the last Pan Am Clipper Boeing designed for Juan Tripp, so to see it get repaced by a strech version of a L-1011/DC10/MD11 size 767, is hard for some to deal with.
As a Pan Am fan, I want to see more new 747s in the air. I saw a brand new CI 77W at the TBIT, and it nearly made me sick. I am so thankful that QF never jumped on the T-7 band wagon. I can deal with 747s being replaced by A380s, because that is an upgrade, but a 77W is somewhat a down grade.

Well then I suggest you and na should get a new hobby then. But seriously, I don't really see why you are making such a big deal about this. Its still the same tube with wings with pretty much the same seats just with two less engines....
I'll wake from the dream, To keep and relive, Now life it is a dream, And dream's on a... BREAK!
 
uta999
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 11:14 am

BA should order 26 x 748/RR in retro BOAC colours, with the registrations G-AWNA-G-AWNZ

Boeing would only ask for around $150m each.

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aviationaware
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 11:45 am

Quoting Hooverman (Reply 2):
The freighter will get more orders in the future.

The dedicated freighter market is as good as dead, I doubt the 748F will see notable new orders.
 
Bongodog1964
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 11:49 am

Quoting AndyEastMids (Reply 31):
So with only 39 to deliver (and a few of those already built), there's less than two and a half years production left at 1.5 a month. What's the longest lead component / sub-assembly in 747 supply chain? i.e. When will there inevitably be a production delay if Boeing don't get more orders or speculatively commit keeping the supply chain open?

No one has answered this question yet, I would suspect this point will be reached sometime next year
 
ben123planes
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 12:07 pm

This news is a real shame.

Counting the pennies in my piggy bank, I'm not far off buying my own BBJ version.

Problem is, with this pathetic output, I'll be on my deathbed by the time it's rolled out.
 
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scbriml
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 12:16 pm

Quoting kanban (Reply 23):
Boeing can go under 1 a month and still turn a profit..

What is this claim based on - other than you just saying they can?

As Stitch pointed out, per the linked article, Boeing is still carrying $2.5billion in deferred program and tooling costs. I really cannot see how it is possible for Boeing to "turn a profit" at less than one per month.   

Quoting bongodog1964 (Reply 58):
No one has answered this question yet, I would suspect this point will be reached sometime next year

Most likely when one of their major suppliers drops to a production rate at which they cannot make a profit. As you suggest, that time must be getting close.

[Edited 2014-12-10 04:32:40]
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dtw2hyd
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 12:19 pm

Cancel 777X and continue 748. Good for everyone.
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boefan
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 12:23 pm

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 61):
Cancel 777X and continue 748. Good for everyone

After that Boeing files for bankruptcy  
 
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hilram
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 12:40 pm

Possible B748 orders have been discussed a lot before, but I would like to bring up one topic in this thread:
The LIKELY B748orders:

I foresee:
2 x B748i for USAF (to replace the two VC25's)
2 x B748i for US Strategic Command (to replace the two E-6 Mercury)
1 x B748i/BBJ hybrid for Air Maroc (for combined Royal VIP and Hajj pilgrimage service)

5 x B748i for Turkish Airlines. They have announced the need for a VLA because of slot constrains on IST (Istanbul Ataturk Airport). And the B748 can go to airports that the A388 can not.

I make it to 10 new orders. Apart from an extra freighter or two, I really can not see any more orders coming in. I do not think they will make it to the 35 more they need to break even on the program.
Flown on: A319, 320, 321, 332, 333, 343 | B732, 734, 735, 736, 73G, 738, 743, 744, 772, 77W | CRJ9 | BAe-146 | DHC-6, 7, 8 | F50 | E195 | MD DC-9 41, MD-82, MD-87
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 12:41 pm

Quoting texl1649 (Reply 1):
The end is nigh for the old girl, I fear.

Sadly, I must agree.

Quoting Hooverman (Reply 2):
I don't think it's the end of the 747. The freighter will get more orders in the future.

Have you looked at freight economics lately? With the 778 based freighter, as others have already noted, there will be too much competition. If freight was doing so well we wouldn't be where:

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 7):
All three white tails are freighters.

That is amazing and sad.  
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 10):
Only last week at investors event, Boeing Business Jets unit head said they are in talks with Middle East customers for "as many as 6" 748i and expects to finalize the deals in 2015.

Huh? I haven't heard a whisper of a rumor of a mid-east carrier. Who? EK doesn't buy in batches that small. Both QR and EY seem poised for growth with the 787 and A350.

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 17):
I specifically allude to an uptick of cargo, that's being carried in pax aircraft bellies; you'd realize that.

The issue is all the belly cargo coming on line will shift the economics to get it in the belly of the 779/A5J/78J. LF for available belly cargo is poor and will drop. That means an economic incentive to get it off the main deck.

Quoting kanban (Reply 23):
don't understand this "salles are slow" cancel the program" garbage.. Boeing can go under 1 a month and still turn a profit..

WIth today's airliner economics, I serious question if under 1 per month would be profitable. Part costs have dropped due to computerized machinery and anything less than 2 per month starts having the setup fees become a very significant part of the manufacturing costs. IMHO, Boeing would make more profit shutting the 747 line and diverting the resources to make more 787s. Sad, but that is airliner economics.

Lightsaber
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scbriml
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 12:47 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 64):
Huh? I haven't heard a whisper of a rumor of a mid-east carrier. Who?

I believe they're BBJs, not for airlines. And, unfortunately, as we've seen all too often in the past, "in talks with" doesn't often lead to sales where the 748 is concerned.

Quoting hilram (Reply 63):
5 x B748i for Turkish Airlines.

Ah, the TK "will they, won't they" two-step. If TK really does need a VLA, then I'm struggling to see why they would start buying a model that might very well be out of production in a couple of years. What happens if they need more five years later?   
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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DTWPurserBoy
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 2:10 pm

If the USAF want the 748i as a presidential transport they had better get the order in yesterday. When the two existing 747-200's were built, it took Boeing a couple of years to add all of the things the USAF and Secret Service wanted. They won't buy an "off-the-shelf" model.

And since those aircraft were built, I am sure that those responsible for ordering specific items to be included have made their list even longer. If they were ordered today they would probably not be delivered until 2018.

I would expect a few additional orders from LH and KE and a few from middle eastern customers.

Frankly, I am surprised that SQ hasn't ordered any as they always seem to order two of everything built...but not necessarily keeping them around long, i.e. the DC-10, 757, 727, A340-500.
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S75752
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 2:32 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 36):
It's said that the FAA would be reluctant (or outright hostile) to the idea of a new same-deck combi without a fixed bulkhead.
Quoting gennadius (Reply 34):
I believe there are a couple of reasons. The first would be that since the new regulations have taken effect, due to the SA295 accident, make it far less economical or flexible than the combis used to be.
Quoting kanban (Reply 38):
There will be no combis.. current regulations make them unworkable.. do a subject search .. this is a frequent suggestion

Did a bit of a search, I'll admit that most of what I found (including on the forums) went a bit over my head but I think I understood the general concerns and justifications the FAA gave. Unfortunate, as my impression is that the ruling is a bit paranoid. Surely, regulation could be introduced instead that would make it not so much of a pain to do, while still ensuring that a repeat of the SA accident would not be possible.

I imagine that if Boeing and interested carriers wanted to, they could pressure the FAA to reconsider and then engineer in new ways to provide more than adequate fire protection. After the un-success of the 744 Combi I can see why they haven't bothered.

Now, what I need help understanding is, why are the concerns that they had stated specific to fires and other hazardous materials on the same deck as passengers, if a fire or something going wrong in the cargo hold beneath could just happen likewise? Are there factors that make a passenger-level cargo fire more dangerous to the craft than a under-hold fire?
 
PEK777
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 2:32 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 28):
And what of this 757 replacement airframe we hear about? There is really no room in Renton for it, so either she goes to Charleston or Everett...

Good to hear Boeing is developing a true 757 replacement.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 44):
Well how about an average of one "bring back the 757" a quarter for the last several years..

It's too bad Boeing is wasting all these resources on this failed project when they could use the space and resources to re-open the 757 line to provide a product that the market obviously wants and needs.
 
BlueShamu330s
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 2:32 pm

Quoting 747400sp (Reply 29):
I saw a brand new CI 77W at the TBIT, and it nearly made me sick.

What an irrational reaction to an aluminium tube.  
Flying around India
 
Ferroviarius
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 2:50 pm

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 9):
The 777-300ER is hardly a cookie cutter. IMHO, it's the best airplane ever designed and built to date (at least until the 787 further proves itself.)

Oh, come oooon....

The 340s were so much more comfortable for the travellers, specifically in Y.

2-4-2 much better than 2-5-2 or 3-3-3, let alone 3-4-3.

Noise level much lower.

Best,

Ferroviarius
 
dtw2hyd
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 3:11 pm

Quoting boefan (Reply 61):
After that Boeing files for bankruptcy

Actually 777X program can push Boeing to the brink. Making more copies of B748 even with small margin is not going to do any harm.

Consider a "hypothetical" scenario where EK cancels B777X order. $10 Billion is down the drain. 250-300 copies may bring the program cost down to $2-$3 Billion (considering all incentives and write offs)

Boeing sales team should have convinced TC to order 150xB748i even with deeper discounts. Now burden is on 777X program to design a bird with EK's hot/humid/heavy specs.

Finally, One NB (737) cannot feed a family of so many slackers forever.
All posts are just opinions.
 
Bongodog1964
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 3:58 pm

looking at the spreadsheet attached to the delivery thread, it appears that 92 frames are complete with another 4 in final assembly. totalling 96 sets of parts completely delivered to Boeing or thereabouts. With total orders at 119 that leaves another 23 sets. At 1.3/month that's 18 months in total.

Some parts will be delivered close to final assembly, but others will need to be on site many months earlier for wing build as an example. Some suppliers must be at the stage where they need to order materials right now assuming they would need to deliver to Boeing in summer 2015 to allow the line to keep going for future orders.
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:02 pm

Quoting bongodog1964 (Reply 71):
it appears that 92 frames are complete with another 4 in final assembly

In addition, two more white tails will soon enter final assembly. Like 1501 and 1502, line numbers 1520 and 1521 were supposed to go to Asiana Cargo and will end up in the desert instead (unless Boeing finds a customer).
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
B777LRF
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:14 pm

That'll make 4 -F white tails; so much for 'the freighter is still selling well'. Obviously, it's not. Boeing may have to keep those birds in the dessert until they're willing to accept the cash Connie Kalitta is willing to pay them, which may not even be 100M each*.

* Connie paid around 70M USD for a -400ERF white-tail in 2009. It'd been in the dessert for a while, and the fuel tanks needed a lot of work. Apart from that, he got a brand spanking new aeroplane for around 1/4 the list price.
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KarelXWB
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:16 pm

Quoting B777LRF (Reply 73):
That'll make 4 -F white tails

There's a 5th, line number 1437 rejected by Atlas Air.

> LN 1437 NTU (Atlas Air)
> LN 1501 NTU (Asiana Cargo)
> LN 1502 NTU (Asiana Cargo)
> LN 1520 NTU (Asiana Cargo)
> LN 1521 NTU (Asiana Cargo)
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
Bongodog1964
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:22 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 72):
In addition, two more white tails will soon enter final assembly. Like 1501 and 1502, line numbers 1520 and 1521 were supposed to go to Asiana Cargo and will end up in the desert instead (unless Boeing finds a customer).

Does Boeing look for a new customer for these, or convert them to fill already confirmed orders ? if the latter that's nearly 20% of the order book fulfilled in one go.
 
DTWPurserBoy
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 5:56 pm

Quoting PEK777 (Reply 67):
It's too bad Boeing is wasting all these resources on this failed project when they could use the space and resources to re-open the 757 line to provide a product that the market obviously wants and needs.

Maybe the USAF would want them for oversized freight or as command/control aircraft. Or perhaps even a foreign air force like Royal Australian.
Qualified on Concorde/B707/B720/B727/B737/B747/B757/B767/B777/DC-8/DC-9/DC-10/A319/A320/A330/MD-88-90
 
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kanban
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 6:10 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 59):
What is this claim based on - other than you just saying they can?

As Stitch pointed out, per the linked article, Boeing is still carrying $2.5billion in deferred program and tooling costs. I really cannot see how it is possible for Boeing to "turn a profit" at less than one per month.
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 63):
WIth today's airliner economics, I serious question if under 1 per month would be profitable.

If ones looks at this as Boeing only makes one product (747-8) and has no other revenue source, you would be correct. Fortunately, while programs appear independent for accounting purposes, the company looks at the total picture and says yes or no as to whether they can temporally continue to support a program..
As to why I say then can go under 1 a month, I was involved in planning studies years ago that showed the costs and trade offs. Consider that stopping and restarting is enormously expensive, while a low rate preserves certifications and skills. With Just in Time processes they are now using, there are no inventories/inventory costs to hold for a higher rate and the flexibility to increase remains.
Yes they may need the facilities eventually for other programs, but they obviously see potential out there and a long term profit.
 
B777LRF
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 6:17 pm

Quoting kanban (Reply 77):
they obviously see potential out there and a long term profit.

Only through Randy's rose tinted glasses.
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BubbleFrog
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 6:20 pm

I might not have much experience with the 748 (two flights with LH, so nothing to compare), but honestly, give me the 744 over it any time. Although the raked wing tips look ravishing.

The economics of the 748 have been discussed here umpteen times. I think it'll be dead before long, and I shall mourn the whole series' demise.
The only good thing is that we will see them flying in their different guises for hopefully a quite considerable time to come.
Absolute Relativist
 
n471wn
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 6:36 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 7):
All three white tails are freighters.

I thought that LH did not take delivery of one of the passenger models. What happened to this aircraft? Was it sold as a passenger model or was it changed to a freighter
 
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scbriml
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 6:41 pm

Quoting n471wn (Reply 80):
I thought that LH did not take delivery of one of the passenger models.

They cancelled one of their 20 orders. They didn't refuse to take delivery of one*.



* Unless a certain Mr. Al Baker has become LH's CEO!   
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
n471wn
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 6:44 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 81):
They cancelled one of their 20 orders. They didn't refuse to take delivery of one*.

Ok but I understand they cancelled it after it was built---what happened to the a/c?
 
boefan
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 6:50 pm

Quoting n471wn (Reply 82):
Ok but I understand they cancelled it after it was built---what happened to the a/c?

undergoing modifications until next year

http://airwaysnews.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Paine-Field-aerials-November-14-33.jpg
 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 6:52 pm

And Boeing has evidently added that frame back into LH's firing order, so they may yet end up taking delivery.
 
n471wn
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 6:53 pm

Quoting boefan (Reply 83):
undergoing modifications until next year

Thanks but is it now one of the noted white tails? Is it being modified to go to another carrier as a passenger a/c or modified to be a freighter?
 
kiwiandrew

RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 6:56 pm

I love the dear old 747 and shall mourn its inevitable passing, but let's be honest, if the internet had been around 60 - 70 years ago anetters would have been condemning the DC-4 & DC-6 simply for not being the DC-3. Everything has its time and being distinctive is not sufficient reason for airlines to order airliners which they feel don't best meet their needs.

Gazing into my crystal ball I predict weekly threads in 2026 condemning Boeing for their "mistake" in "prematurely" announcing in 2016 their decision to cease 747 production when they would have "clearly" sold hundreds if only they had listened to A.net.
 
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cougar15
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 6:59 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 41):
Ah yes. Their 747-400s are relatively new, but they did lose that frame in DXB...

they got a (used) new(er) one at top Terms (ERF) from TNT Express after the proposed Merger fell thru .......

[Edited 2014-12-10 11:39:52]
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ssteve
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 7:25 pm

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 86):
Gazing into my crystal ball I predict weekly threads in 2026 condemning Boeing for their "mistake" in "prematurely" announcing in 2016 their decision to cease 747 production when they would have "clearly" sold hundreds if only they had listened to A.net.

Well, it will be harder to argue they didn't NEOMAXPLUSWARPSPEED the 747 enough to give it a fighting chance, as they did an entirely new wing and engine. The 757, on the other hand ...   Nah, I still agree it was done. Oh well.
 
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gennadius
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 7:26 pm

Quoting hilram (Reply 62):
Possible B748 orders have been discussed a lot before, but I would like to bring up one topic in this thread:
The LIKELY B748orders:

I foresee:
2 x B748i for USAF (to replace the two VC25's)
2 x B748i for US Strategic Command (to replace the two E-6 Mercury)
1 x B748i/BBJ hybrid for Air Maroc (for combined Royal VIP and Hajj pilgrimage service)

5 x B748i for Turkish Airlines. They have announced the need for a VLA because of slot constrains on IST (Istanbul Ataturk Airport). And the B748 can go to airports that the A388 can not.

I make it to 10 new orders. Apart from an extra freighter or two, I really can not see any more orders coming in. I do not think they will make it to the 35 more they need to break even on the program.

There are a few more that are likely. Air Bridge Cargo has talked openly about replacing all their current non -8Fs with new builds. They took one this year on very short notice, and stated that they have a plan in place to execute on that going forward. That could be potentially 7 frames.

Cargolux has also expressed that they may take more frames both for replacement, up to 11 older 747 frames, as well as potentially for their second hub at Zhengzhou, to start trans-Pacific services.

Air China has been reported to be in discussions for another order that will potentially include a few more -8is.

It has been reported before that the 20th LH frame, which they cancelled to allow Boeing to continue using the frame for testing during the PIP certification process, is listed for them again. Perhaps there will be a top-up of some number from them.

Regarding the -8F and the air cargo market in general, the issue is much more the modal shift that has occurred during the prolonged economic down-period. Enhancements and improvements have been made to make sea more attractive and cost-efficient, and the move away from time-sensitive shipping in some cases has driven tonnage over to that mode of travel as well. Over the last 6+ quarters, consistent growth has returned and that has been good for the air freight carriers. The reason why it has not resulted in more orders yet is not so much all the belly capacity, that has had some impact for sure, but not necessarily to the extent that it is made out to be. The larger issue is that there was a tremendous surplus of capacity, even just within the existing freighter fleets, due to how much the tonnage levels had fallen during the post 2010 pull-back.

If the air cargo market continues to improve, as Boeing, WorldACD, and IATA predict, then new frames will likely be required both for growth, as well as for replacement of aging fleets.
Per ardua, ad astra
 
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kanban
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 7:33 pm

Quoting B777LRF (Reply 78):
Only through Randy's rose tinted glasses.

Randy isn't a decision maker, he''s a PR guy with an engineering title.. nothing more and he generally spews the lines given him.. (except when he's talking food - pun not intended)
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 8:09 pm

Quoting Max Q (Reply 51):
Interesting but unenlightened opinion.

Says who: you?
Well THAT'S hardly an authoritative source, now is it?  

Quoting Max Q (Reply 51):
This 'relic' does many missions extremely well,
Quoting Max Q (Reply 51):
and can still make money in that role

Can it? Sure. Can it do so relative to available alternatives to an appreciable longterm goal? Not as well... hence why essentially no one wants it.

Granted, this is much more applicable to the pax version than the freighter, but let's not pretend that the freighter is selling like gangbusters, either.

Quoting hilram (Reply 62):
And the B748 can go to airports that the A388 can not.

No airline seems to care about that.
We haven't really seen that reflected in orders, or expressly mentioned by the carriers, at all.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 63):
LF for available belly cargo is poor and will drop. That means an economic incentive to get it off the main deck.

  
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
UA444
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 9:08 pm

I wonder if there are customers waiting for Boeing to get "desperate" so to speak to they could score a monster deal on some.
 
Bongodog1964
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 9:25 pm

It seems to me that to keep the supply chain running Boeing need around 10 orders in the next 6 months, much less than that and they will have little choice but to close the line down.
 
lutfi
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:04 pm

There are many types of cargo that you can't carry in belly space (eg lithium batteries) as risk of fire is too high. You can't carry them on on a combi either.

Killing a couple of pilots is seen as acceptable risk (UPS crash) killing a couple hundred passengers not so much
 
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Boeing778X
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:47 pm

Quoting chrisp390 (Reply 27):
Any chance of 5X ordering some 747-8F? That could bring some life back to the program

Not impossible. However, me thinks they'd want to get rid of their 747-400Fs first.

Quoting UA444 (Reply 92):
I wonder if there are customers waiting for Boeing to get "desperate" so to speak to they could score a monster deal on some.

Wonder who'd bite for some.
United Airlines: $#!ttin' On Everyone Since 1931
 
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777Jet
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:55 pm

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 9):
Quoting a380787 (Reply 8):
Sitting in another cookie cutter ... I mean ... 77W, just doesn't feel the same.

The 777-300ER is hardly a cookie cutter. IMHO, it's the best airplane ever designed and built to date

                    

Agreed 100%.

I partly, well, mostly, blame the 77W for the 747's downturn - it can carry almost as many pax, more cargo, just as far, and with half the number of engines... Better efficiency. Better economics. Better reliability. The77W is one slick machine... The best ever IMHO...  
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
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yyz717
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:56 pm

Quoting Hooverman (Reply 2):
Quoting texl1649 (Reply 1):

I don't think it's the end of the 747. The freighter will get more orders in the future.

I agree. There remain a large number of 744F's in service. The most obvious replacement is new-build 748F's.
I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 11:37 pm

Quoting gennadius (Reply 16):
Apparently you have missed the reports regarding the last 6+ quarters of positive growth in the cargo market, with levels now at the 2010 post-recession bounce-back levels... The cargo market has grown at over 4% this year and is projected to do so going forward. Are there still concerns, yes, however the view going forward is much brighter than it was two years ago, and it is far from a "cratered, with little prospect for resumption" market...
Quoting gennadius (Reply 89):
That could be potentially 7 frames.

The cargo market is indeed recovering and there will be more orders in the future. The real question is how many jets Boeing would have to sell to keep the line running. Assuming production can go as low as 12 frames per year (1 per month), I can't see the cargo market absorbing 12 747 freighters annually. We must also keep in mind that available belly space is increasing significantly due to many 787s, 777s and soon A350s entering the market.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
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Boeing778X
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RE: Boeing Announces New 747-8 Production Cut

Wed Dec 10, 2014 11:46 pm

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 96):
The77W is one slick machine... The best ever IMHO...

Best seller too! Hate to see Boeing let her go in a few years.
United Airlines: $#!ttin' On Everyone Since 1931

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