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TWA772LR
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Future AUS Expansion?

Wed Dec 10, 2014 3:18 am

Austin is a booming city in Texas right now, especially in the tech sector.

With BA showing stunning results in AUS and even upgauging aircraft, and AC announcing YYZ-AUS, could we see any more expansion in AUS?

Germans love to go to the hill country for vacation, so I can see once or twice weekly Condor, Eurowings, LH Jump, or full LH seasonally. On the other side of the planet, I can see 787 service with either JL or NH. From the south, I dont think CM is inconceivable, especially since they seem to be wanting to distance themselves from UA. And finally, I think EK QR or EY could find a nice niche; with EK having the better chance of happening.

Physically, AUS needs to expand. A stinger concourse on either end of the current terminal would be great to place RJs and make room for more mainline aircraft. Or even a midfield complex on the remains of the Bergstrom AFB.
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MAH4546
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Wed Dec 10, 2014 3:21 am

Quoting TWA772LR (Thread starter):
With BA showing stunning results in AUS and even upgauging aircraft, and AC announcing YYZ-AUS, could we see any more expansion in AUS?

BA will not be upgauging. It will remain a 787.
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thekorean
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Wed Dec 10, 2014 3:23 am

AUS will NEVER get an Asian service.

EVER.

Same goes for PDX. Not enough Asian pop over there and easily served by other Texas airport.
 
SLCSFOPDX
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Wed Dec 10, 2014 3:31 am

I could see Condor adding seasonal FRA-AUS, maybe twice a week. I think NK and AUS would be a great fit as well. I am not sure about an Asian destination from AUS. Is there enough traffic for a flight to ICN on KE or OZ or a flight to NRT on either JL or NH? I definitely don't see a major U.S. airline adding AUS to Europe or Asia (e.g. AUS-CDG on DL).
 
SLCSFOPDX
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Wed Dec 10, 2014 3:32 am

Quoting thekorean (Reply 2):

DL already flies PDX-NRT....
 
LawnDart
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Wed Dec 10, 2014 3:32 am

Quoting thekorean (Reply 2):
AUS will NEVER get an Asian service.

EVER.

Same goes for PDX


Huh? Doesn't PDX already have Asian service to NRT?
 
MesaFlyGuy
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Wed Dec 10, 2014 3:33 am

Quoting thekorean (Reply 2):
Same goes for PDX. Not enough Asian pop over there and easily served by other Texas airport.

You do realize that PDX currently has Asian service, right?
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KD5MDK
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Wed Dec 10, 2014 3:37 am

Never say never, but I imagine BA would go to a 77W or 744 if the market exploded rather than a ME3 carrier showing up.
 
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bigfoot0503
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Wed Dec 10, 2014 3:44 am

Quoting thekorean (Reply 2):
AUS will NEVER get an Asian service.

EVER.

Same goes for PDX. Not enough Asian pop over there and easily served by other Texas airport.

What are you smoking man? Your suggestion that ethnic demographics determine whether a particular route may or may not be successful is laughable.

[Edited 2014-12-09 19:46:42]
 
HeeseokKoo
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Wed Dec 10, 2014 3:50 am

AUS airport is currently expanding, although it doesn't mean they're adding any gates. Security check point will be added on east side of the terminal, and rental car facility will move to a new garage. Short-term parking spot will also be increased.

AUS didn't add any gates or expanded airside in the current project because it's not that urgent. JetBlue and Frontier is reducing flights, and no airline wants additional gate at this point. There are 3 (or 4?) common use gates which is enough to absorb any expected near-future additions.

To me, what AUS needs is more restaurants, more landside restaurants/cafe, and moving walkways to faraway UA gates.
 
Mikey711MN
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:01 am

Quoting HeeseokKoo (Reply 9):
AUS didn't add any gates or expanded airside in the current project because it's not that urgent.

In general, that's correct...getting some other facilities online, e.g. consolidated car rental facility, expanded int'l accommodations, etc. were more urgent.

However, terminal expansion is planned for development in a few years. From http://www.austintexas.gov/page/construction-projects#gate:

Quote:
This $240 million expansion will “balance” the terminal and provide much needed space for the ever-expanding passenger and aircraft operational numbers. The east terminal gate expansion will provide approximately 70,000 square feet (a 23% increase) of new hold room space, concessions, restroom facilities, and concourse circulation space to name a few. It also provides the added concourse footprint that will accommodate seven to eight additional aircraft parking spaces on the apron for both domestic and international airline operations. This near-term expansion will provide an approximate 30% increase in aircraft operational capacity.

The "balance" referred to above essentially makes the terminal a symmetric design. Currently, the majority of gates extend to the west, so the added facilities extend to the east...



...with notable mention that the gates in the foreground likely connected to the newly developed customs facilities (oval-shaped portion to the right of the expanded area highlighted in red).

It's a thoughtful, modular approach that allows for the airport facilities to grow to match demand.
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thekorean
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:14 am

Quoting bigfoot0503 (Reply 8):

True.

But it cant help that Asians dont know what Austin is.Aside from Samsung.

I am saying PDX will never get Asian carries flying there.

[Edited 2014-12-09 20:15:20]
 
SLCSFOPDX
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:25 am

Quoting thekorean (Reply 11):

A bunch of us have already mentioned PDX has a flight to NRT on DL!!! Who cares if PDX doesn't have an Asian carrier.

I am sure if DL drops PDX-NRT, you would see NH or JL jump right on that!

[Edited 2014-12-09 20:26:27]

[Edited 2014-12-09 20:27:26]
 
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thekorean
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:26 am

Quoting SLCSFOPDX (Reply 12):

That was my mistake, meant to say no Asian carriers will fly to PDX. Asians have no clue what Portland is.
 
BoeingGuy
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:27 am

Quoting thekorean (Reply 11):
I am saying PDX will never get Asian carries flying there.

I disagree with this too. If DL discontinues PDX-NRT it's a widely held believe that NH will step in. They seem pretty Asian to me. As a dark horse, I could see KE trying PDX-ICN, but I'd put my money on NH.
 
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TWA772LR
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:29 am

OK, we have established that DL flies PDX-NRT. Lets get back on topic.
When wasn't America great?


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thekorean
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:29 am

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 14):

By who?

Japanese don't know where Portland is on the map, and PDX isn't oneworld or Star hub.
 
BoeingGuy
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:30 am

Quoting thekorean (Reply 13):

That was my mistake, meant to say no Asian carriers will fly to PDX. Asians have no clue what Portland is.

I disagree with this too. Asians (and the rest of the world) are far more geographically savvy than most Americans who know little of the world beyond their local WalMart or their favorite Reality TV show.

But that's not the topic here. We've established that PDX can support an Asia non-stop.

The question is whether AUS could support an Asia non-stop? Would JL or NH try it?
 
SLCSFOPDX
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:31 am

Quoting thekorean (Reply 16):

Time to shut down this topic, it's going nowhere, and we have trolling....ahh!
 
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thekorean
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:33 am

Quoting SLCSFOPDX (Reply 18):

What trolling? I am not bashing those cities but they are not massive corporate base that is NY, Seattle or SF. Austin is a great little city, but aside from Samsung what Asian connection they got?

Maybe 30 years down the road when they grow they can support Asian flight but at the moment? I dont think so.
 
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:37 am

Quoting TWA772LR (Thread starter):
Germans love to go to the hill country for vacation, so I can see once or twice weekly Condor, Eurowings, LH Jump, or full LH seasonally. On the other side of the planet, I can see 787 service with either JL or NH. From the south, I dont think CM is inconceivable, especially since they seem to be wanting to distance themselves from UA. And finally, I think EK QR or EY could find a nice niche; with EK having the better chance of happening.

Physically, AUS needs to expand. A stinger concourse on either end of the current terminal would be great to place RJs and make room for more mainline aircraft. Or even a midfield complex on the remains of the Bergstrom AFB.

I think AUS is a neat city and it's great to see the economy doing well, but lets be real here. Why would EK QR or EY be interested in serving AUS? EK is having a hard enough time as it is establishing itself in DFW, what makes you think they could make AUS work?

What is your rationale for CM starting service? I assume this would be originating from PTY, but how many pax actually travel between these two points frequently? I just have a hard time seeing a lot of international service expansion out of AUS when its within a few hour drive of two massive hubs in DFW and IAH that both have ample connecting opportunities to numerous Latin American markets.
 
76794p
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:42 am

Quoting TusDawg23 (Reply 20):

I agree. I go to school in AUS and HOU is home. It takes me three hours to get from northwest AUS to downtown HOU. If i am going to go somewhere that is not served non-stop from AUS, I will drive to IAH.
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LoneStarMike
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:46 am

For what it's worth, Austin Bergstrom International Airport's incentive program only targeted two international destinations outside North America. One was London. BA got those incentives. The other is Tokyo.

http://www.austintexas.gov/sites/def.../business/Notice_Rule_Adoption.pdf

Scroll down to page 5 and it's in Section D.

If an international carrier provided service to Tokyo, it would only have to offer the service 8 times per month and stick around at least a year to qualify for the incentives.

LoneStarMike
 
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jsnww81
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Wed Dec 10, 2014 5:12 am

Quoting thekorean (Reply 19):
Maybe 30 years down the road when they grow they can support Asian flight but at the moment? I dont think so.

This is the right line of thinking. In the 1970s, if you suggested that cities like Denver, Dallas, Houston and Atlanta would have the international links they have today, most industry-savvy folks would have laughed in your face. There were always large domestic operations at each, but international flights only used coastal airports, or maybe Chicago.

Times change. BOS always had overseas service, but look at the boom in flights we've seen over the past year alone. EWR was a backwater that struggled to maintain transcontinental service. Now you have three daily nonstops to India. AUS was served by three airlines in 1978 and its longest nonstop was a single daily to Washington on Braniff. Today you have LHR service.

Hell, I grew up in Dallas and it was a VERY big deal when we got our Tokyo flight. If you had told the 12-year-old version of me that one day DFW would have service to Seoul, Shanghai and Hong Kong, I would have been highly skeptical.

Don't rule places like AUS (or PDX) out. In 15 years we may think it completely normal that Japan Airlines flies AUS-Tokyo.
 
YoungDon
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Wed Dec 10, 2014 5:44 am

I personally wouldn't be all that surprised if we saw an AUS-NRT route in the next 5-10 years. Austin is a growing, prosperous area with one major advantage over IAH and DFW that BA already seems to have figured out - less competition.

The BA flight works because it's the only nonstop to Europe. While a nonstop to Asia today may be a bit of a stretch, I think AUS is right on the cusp of being able to support it.

The other thing I think we'd see one day would be Lufthansa (though certainly further in the future). They don't really have a great aircraft to serve AUS though, so I could certainly see this taking a decade or more to materialize.
 
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thekorean
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Wed Dec 10, 2014 5:53 am

Quoting jsnww81 (Reply 23):

True, never is a loooong time.

Heck I couldnt imagine KE flying to IAH but it happened.
 
Longhornmaniac
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Wed Dec 10, 2014 5:54 am

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 1):
BA will not be upgauging. It will remain a 787.

Based on what I've heard from my BA sources in AUS, the flight will go to a 772 in the W14 season. Once upon a time, I had actually seen this loaded on BA's website, but it appears (at least for now) to have reverted back to a 787. Perhaps this is indicative of a change of heart, or perhaps they're still finalizing the schedules.

Quoting TWA772LR (Thread starter):
and AC announcing YYZ-AUS

I wouldn't hold my breath on this one. They've tried before and failed. I still think a CR7 is the wrong aircraft.

Quoting TWA772LR (Thread starter):
Germans love to go to the hill country for vacation, so I can see once or twice weekly Condor, Eurowings, LH Jump, or full LH seasonally. On the other side of the planet, I can see 787 service with either JL or NH. From the south, I dont think CM is inconceivable, especially since they seem to be wanting to distance themselves from UA. And finally, I think EK QR or EY could find a nice niche; with EK having the better chance of happening.

My thoughts on your thoughts:

-While there is a large tourist component from Germany to Central Texas, I remain unconvinced that AUS would support a market of that distance that is mostly leisure-based. The one caveat to that is the continued exposure AUS is getting on the international stage with Formula 1 and our music festivals. It may be possible at some point to derive a seasonal leisure route given our continued emergence on the world stage, but I don't believe that day to be today, nor in the near future.

-I could potentially see a Japanese carrier offering 787 service. There is plenty of demand from Austin to the Far East thanks to the tech industry, but it remains to be seen if there's any actual premium in providing the service nonstop. Unfortunately (at least for the hopes of obtaining trans-Pacific service), AUS is a bit fragmented in terms of the destinations, too, with Samsung in Korea, and any number of other tech companies spread out across Japan, China, and Taiwan. I actually think ICN would capture more of the nonstop demand than NRT would, but with a very strong oneworld frequent flyer base, JL would be favored for any destinations beyond Japan. With that said, if I was a Samsung employee traveling regularly between AUS and Korea, I'd probably rather fly to DFW and then get a nonstop flight to ICN than fly all the way to NRT only to have to connect on the back end. But corporate contracts are the name of the game, and anything could happen there.

-CM I don't ever see happening. We can't even sustain an RJ (whether AM or Aeromar) to MEX. PTY bypasses all of Mexico and Central America. I'm happy to be proven wrong, but I'll believe it when I see it.

-The ME3 would hypothetically be catering almost exclusively to the large Indian population in AUS largely derived from the tech industry. The only way I think the ME3 could be successful here is with cargo. It's a side of things people often forget about, but I've seen with my own two eyes the amount of cargo being loaded into that BA 787 destined for the Subcontinent. Don't count out cargo as a driving force behind any future decisions. Thanks to Austin's role in the high tech industry, there is a lot of high-value cargo moving to and from.

Quoting thekorean (Reply 2):

AUS will NEVER get an Asian service.

EVER.

Thanks for your enlightening comment supported with sound logic.

Quoting HeeseokKoo (Reply 9):
To me, what AUS needs is more restaurants

Funny, that would be the one thing I don't think AUS needs. But it does get fairly sparse down at the west end of the concourse, I'll grant you that.

Quoting HeeseokKoo (Reply 9):
more landside restaurants/cafe,

Would be nice, but I'm not sure where they'd put it. AUS is pretty streamlined to get people from curbside to their gate, so there's not a whole lot of free space.

Quoting HeeseokKoo (Reply 9):
moving walkways to faraway UA gates

   This I could definitely see happening. It's quite a trek.

Quoting Mikey711MN (Reply 10):
However, terminal expansion is planned for development in a few years.

  

Quoting thekorean (Reply 11):
But it cant help that Asians dont know what Austin is.Aside from Samsung.

Sorry dude, but that's one of the most grotesque over-generalizations I've seen in a post that wasn't in Non-Aviation. Thankfully the people making decisions don't think like that.

Quoting thekorean (Reply 19):
I am not bashing those cities but they are not massive corporate base that is NY, Seattle or SF. Austin is a great little city, but aside from Samsung what Asian connection they got?

Samsung arose as part of a larger technological renaissance here in the 90s. The idea that Samsung is the only tech player doing considerable business in Asia is nuts.

Quoting TusDawg23 (Reply 20):
Why would EK QR or EY be interested in serving AUS? EK is having a hard enough time as it is establishing itself in DFW, what makes you think they could make AUS work?

EK's problem with DFW is they're trying to compete with the other 2/3 of the ME3 now, while upgauging to an A380. They were doing quite well when they were the only player. But let's actually let it play out before we write them off in DFW. It's only 1 month during a low travel period, and no one here has access to information (and/or the authority to release it) regarding profitability. As I mentioned before, and will mention again, cargo is the unseen driver of profit/loss.

An ME3 carrier (not that I believe it at all likely...I don't) would consider AUS because of the lucrative belly freight going to/from India.

Quoting TusDawg23 (Reply 20):
What is your rationale for CM starting service? I assume this would be originating from PTY, but how many pax actually travel between these two points frequently?

   Agreed....

Quoting TusDawg23 (Reply 20):
I just have a hard time seeing a lot of international service expansion out of AUS when its within a few hour drive of two massive hubs in DFW and IAH that both have ample connecting opportunities to numerous Latin American markets.

...but not for this reason. Very few people are going to drive to DFW/IAH. Why drive 3 hours each way when it's a 30 minute flight? Fares from fortress hubs are seldom cheaper.

To sum up my thoughts as one of the ranking Austinites on the board, I think Asia is far more likely than ME3, especially with the incentives in place. I don't think either are especially likely, but I think a 787 to NRT is more likely than 777 to DXB/AUH/DOH. From what I hear, BA continue to do well on the flight to LHR, and there have been lengthy discussions about upgauging. Whether it comes to pass or not remains to be seen. What is interesting to me is how important BA's role in being the first one here is and if they've successfully captured what demand there is. Put another way, if a hypothetical second European carrier came in, is the market supply- or demand-limited?

Cheers,
Cameron
Cheers,
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bjorn14
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Wed Dec 10, 2014 7:42 am

Quoting TWA772LR (Thread starter):
Physically, AUS needs to expand.
AUS Master Plan calls for up to 122 gates. Of course all this depends on demand.

Does anybody see any big holes in the AUS network?

[Edited 2014-12-09 23:45:14]
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AWACSooner
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:08 am

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 1):
BA will not be upgauging. It will remain a 787.

Not correct...there is going to be a seasonal upgauge to the 772...it was announced a few months ago.
 
aviationaware
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Wed Dec 10, 2014 11:51 am

Quoting thekorean (Reply 16):
Japanese don't know where Portland is on the map, and PDX isn't oneworld or Star hub.

Many Americans don't know where Iraq is on the map and they are still swarming the place (that was a joke guys, don't anyone dare to be upset!).

Do you really think Europeans know where Austin is? I guarantee you, >90% don't. And still you see BA service to Austin. Strange, huh? Did it ever cross your mind that maybe Portlanders know where Tokyo or Hong Kong are? Airline routes are not one way streets, and besides, such a route would always rely heavily on corporate traffic - which couldn't care less if you know where Portland is. All they care for is that their counterpart is there. Case closed.
 
commavia
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Wed Dec 10, 2014 12:00 pm

AUS definitely needs a larger terminal, or at least soon will, and the airport clearly knows it. That's a good thing - they recognize the growth in the market and the need to invest to keep up.

I do agree, however, that a nonstop to Asia is unrealistic wishful thinking. I will admit that I was shocked - pleasantly surprised - by the introduction of the BA 787 to LHR, but I just don't see a nonstop to NRT, or anywhere else in Asia, anytime soon, even with the volume of tech-driven air traffic between AUS and Japan, Korea, and/or Asia in general.

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 27):
Does anybody see any big holes in the AUS network?

Personally, not really - at least not from a network perspective, meaning that I don't really think there are all that many new cities that could realistically be added to/from AUS. I think more likely what we're going to see is increased frequency, and/or increased capacity, on existing nonstop routes. As a few examples, I could realistically see: United shifted to all-mainline (perhaps at slightly lower frequency) on both AUS-EWR and AUS-SFO, AA adding a second AUS-JFK, additional Southwest on multiple routes, etc.
 
Longhornmaniac
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Mon Dec 22, 2014 5:23 pm

So I'm hearing rumblings from within of a new international carrier starting in April. They are not talking about AC.

Any ideas?

Cheers,
Cameron
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ERJ170
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Mon Dec 22, 2014 5:39 pm

RDU is a big gap at AUS... Probably a few more east coast cities... Internationally, I would think other pharmacist/bio like FRA or NRT but I'm not sure how the numbers look... But those are my guesses...
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adamh8297
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Mon Dec 22, 2014 5:47 pm

Quoting Longhornmaniac (Reply 31):

So I'm hearing rumblings from within of a new international carrier starting in April. They are not talking about AC.

Any ideas?

What about one of the Mexican LCC's though VivaAerobus did serve in the past?
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iowaman
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Mon Dec 22, 2014 6:20 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 30):
additional Southwest on multiple routes

For those of you who haven't already heard the announcement last week, Southwest will be adding the following routes from AUS this summer:

AUS-SNA 0735-0835 (daily)
SNA-AUS 1540-2040 (daily)

AUS-STL 1325-1525 (daily)
STL-AUS 1615-1810 (daily)

Also, sources are confirming PDX-AUS and SJD will be daily year around:

PDX-AUS 0700-1250 (daily)
AUS-PDX 1845-2050 (daily)

AUS-SJD 1125-1245 (daily)
SJD-AUS 1340-1655 (daily)

Source: http://kxan.com/2014/12/17/southwest...lines-adds-new-routes-from-austin/
 
Cubsrule
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Mon Dec 22, 2014 7:02 pm

Quoting YoungDon (Reply 24):
I personally wouldn't be all that surprised if we saw an AUS-NRT route in the next 5-10 years. Austin is a growing, prosperous area with one major advantage over IAH and DFW that BA already seems to have figured out - less competition.

Okay, but the AUS-TYO market is still tiny (less than 15 PDEW in 2011). For comparison, RDU is about the same size to TYO but much larger to China and Korea, and BNA is 25 percent larger to TYO. Do you think that RDU, BNA and AUS will all have TYO service in 5-10 years?
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fxramper
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Mon Dec 22, 2014 7:02 pm

NH could do a 787 from AUS.

Quoting LoneStarMike (Reply 22):
For what it's worth, Austin Bergstrom International Airport's incentive program only targeted two international destinations outside North America. One was London. BA got those incentives. The other is Tokyo.

It wasn't n/s, but back in the day, AA 61 originated in AUS and was marketed as an international flight.

Quoting iowaman (Reply 34):
AUS-SNA 0735-0835 (daily)
SNA-AUS 1540-2040 (daily)

AA failed at this.

Quoting iowaman (Reply 34):
PDX-AUS 0700-1250 (daily)
AUS-PDX 1845-2050 (daily)

AA failed at AUS-SEA.

Someone needs to call John Almond and have him build a larger airport than he did before.   
 
UA735WL
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Mon Dec 22, 2014 8:28 pm

Quoting iowaman (Reply 34):

Am I the only one here that is surprised that WN ha
s a monopoly on AUS-PDX ? I'll bet AS could absolutely destroy WN on this route if they would just start it...


Didn't AA fail at AUS-SNA too?

[Edited 2014-12-22 12:31:43]
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LoneStarMike
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Tue Dec 23, 2014 4:24 am

Quoting commavia (Reply 30):
AUS definitely needs a larger terminal, or at least soon will, and the airport clearly knows it.

They're working on it. There was an article in the Austin Business Journal saying that they had picked the design team (Gensler) for the East Terminal Concourse expansion.

Designer named for ABIA expansion

Quoting iowaman (Reply 34):
Also, sources are confirming PDX-AUS and SJD will be daily year around:

PDX-AUS 0700-1250 (daily)
AUS-PDX 1845-2050 (daily)

AUS-SJD 1125-1245 (daily)
SJD-AUS 1340-1655 (daily)

I don't believe that is correct. I think in previous seasons AUS-PDX operated 6 times per week, and AUS-SJD less than that. Both flights will be operating daily this season, but they will not be year round.

Article about possible Tokyo service:

New Austin-London Nonstop Paves the Way for More International Flights
November 25, 2014


Quote:
Now city leaders have their sights on landing more international flights, with an Austin-Tokyo route high on the priority list. It would open Austin to 175 destinations worldwide. Narita International Airport and Tokyo Haneda Airport fly to 103 and 72 destinations, respectively.

[SNIP]

Airport officials would not comment on their plans. But in 2013, the airport created an incentives plan for new international routes – specifying that only London and Tokyo routes would qualify. The plan includes waiving landing fees for two years and providing up to $400,000 in marketing and advertising support over two years, contingent on City Council approval, according to a document on the airport website.

Tokyo is the third-largest airport system in the world, with two international airports, and a gateway to the rest of Asia, where many Austin tech companies have operations or suppliers. The list includes Dell Inc., Freescale Semiconductor and Cirrus Logic. Japanese companies including Tokyo Electron have plants or offices in Austin. South Korea-based Samsung has a $13 billion chip manufacturing complex in Austin.

It took several years to land the British Airways flight, and business leaders know it will be hard to get another international flight.


In other HUGE news, it was discovered that a site plan had been submitted to the City of Austin for approval. (It's for a pet hotel. LOL)   

On a parting note, everyone likes to always point out that Austin is one of the fastest growing cities in the U.S. (and it is) but if one picture is worth a thousand words, here's a photo of a very small section of the southwest corner of Downtown Austin.

http://i241.photobucket.com/albums/ff158/LoneStarMike/Austin%202014/DSC_0007-2.jpg

There are so many cranes throughout downtown right now, we're starting to look like a miniature version of Dubai.

LoneStarMike
 
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Tue Dec 23, 2014 6:11 am

If there is an Asian flight, I hope it's a 2-4-2 788 rather than a 3-3-3 on like BA has. That was cramped.
 
incitatus
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Tue Dec 23, 2014 3:09 pm

Quoting thekorean (Reply 13):
That was my mistake, meant to say no Asian carriers will fly to PDX. Asians have no clue what Portland is.

Actually a flight from Portland to Asia is more attractive to an Asian carrier than to an American carrier. Long-haul flights from secondary cities tend to be more successful in the hands of foreign carriers. Here is why: KE or NH or JL in Portland can create same-airline connectivity in their Asian hubs. Take KE on PDX-ICN for example. It can create convenient 1-connection services to all of Asia.

As to whether Asians know Portland exist, that has no major impact. The addition of service in a market like Portland hinges on how much business travel exists between Portland and Asia.
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thekorean
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Tue Dec 23, 2014 8:26 pm

Quoting incitatus (Reply 40):

You look at all the cities Asian carriers fly to at the moment, all of them has significant Asian populations. Even ATL which KE flies to.
 
SLCSFOPDX
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Tue Dec 23, 2014 9:46 pm

I think JL would have great success in AUS. I tend to think that AUS is more of a Oneworld airport than Star Allliance, and with that, I think JL on AUS-NRT would have great results.

Also what about Hainan Airlines coming to AUS? HU only serves SEA, ORD, and BOS, and I think maybe HU could find a niche market to China from AUS.
 
tbboko802
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Tue Dec 23, 2014 10:22 pm

Per AWACSooner,

"Not correct...there is going to be a seasonal upgauge to the 772...it was announced a few months ago."


Actually he is correct, the upgrade was canceled.Here is the source:

http://airlineroute.net/2014/12/04/ba-aus-w15update2/
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Wed Dec 24, 2014 3:10 pm

Quoting SLCSFOPDX (Reply 42):
Also what about Hainan Airlines coming to AUS? HU only serves SEA, ORD, and BOS, and I think maybe HU could find a niche market to China from AUS.

The market is tiny. Brookings has a useful (if somewhat misleadingly named) statistic which is demand to "Developing Asia" (basically Asia minus Japan, Korea, HKG and SIN--includes China, India, Indonesia, the Philipines, etc.). In 2011, AUS's demand to that region was about 78 PDEW. For comparison, the comparable 2011 number for RDU was 117 PDEW. That's an extremely significant difference. (And the magnitude of the difference to PEK is even larger; 8 PDEW versus 20.)
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Wed Dec 24, 2014 3:33 pm

Quoting LoneStarMike (Reply 38):
On a parting note, everyone likes to always point out that Austin is one of the fastest growing cities in the U.S. (and it is) but if one picture is worth a thousand words, here's a photo of a very small section of the southwest corner of Downtown Austin.

That is pretty impressive. Haven't had a chance to visit AUS yet, but it's high on my list.

WN used to fly RDU-AUS (and RDU-SAT) a decade or so ago. I wish they'd pick AUS back up.
Sometimes we don't realize the good times when we're in them
 
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adamh8297
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Wed Dec 24, 2014 3:57 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 44):
The market is tiny. Brookings has a useful (if somewhat misleadingly named) statistic which is demand to "Developing Asia" (basically Asia minus Japan, Korea, HKG and SIN--includes China, India, Indonesia, the Philipines, etc.). In 2011, AUS's demand to that region was about 78 PDEW. For comparison, the comparable 2011 number for RDU was 117 PDEW. That's an extremely significant difference. (And the magnitude of the difference to PEK is even larger; 8 PDEW versus 20.)

Are there any estimates of leakage to IAH. If people in BOS catchment use JFK/EWR then AUS seems a good candidate for leakage especially for longhaul. The drive has to be a bit easier as mentioned in posts above.
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN

2019: CX BOS-HKG, WE HKG-HKT, CA HKT-PEK-EWR, B6 EWR-BOS
 
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Wed Dec 24, 2014 9:19 pm

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 46):
Are there any estimates of leakage to IAH. If people in BOS catchment use JFK/EWR then AUS seems a good candidate for leakage especially for longhaul.

In the time period we're talking about (these are 2011 numbers), IAH didn't have much service to "interior" Asia (CA started in 2013). If you have to connect regardless, there's not much reason to drive to IAH. Also, lots of people are flying to IAH and connecting (nearly international 1 passenger in 5 in 2011).

Here is an interesting comparison. I took AUS and RDU and compared to BOS and SAN, two cities that gained NRT service after 2011. These are imperfect comparisons, of course, but SAN is a city that likely bled a lot; BOS not so much. I bet AUS bleeds somewhere between them. I indexed to total Asia demand from AUS, which equals 100. As the numbers make clear, BOS and SAN are in a whole different league.

City...................................NRT.....................................Total Asia

AUS.................................7.3........................................100

RDU................................7.2.........................................111.2

BOS................................41.7........................................508.5

SAN................................28.3........................................177.5

Quoting RDUDDJI (Reply 45):
WN used to fly RDU-AUS (and RDU-SAT) a decade or so ago. I wish they'd pick AUS back up.

Agreed, and they'd get some connecting traffic on the Texas end. (I've done BNA-SAT-PHX and BNA-AUS-LAX despite nonstops in both markets). I've long argued that most mid-sized airports would be better served focusing their incentive efforts on domestic flights (for AUS, stuff like MKE and RDU) than on transoceanic service.
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adamh8297
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Wed Dec 24, 2014 10:33 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 47):
In the time period we're talking about (these are 2011 numbers), IAH didn't have much service to "interior" Asia (CA started in 2013). If you have to connect regardless, there's not much reason to drive to IAH. Also, lots of people are flying to IAH and connecting (nearly international 1 passenger in 5 in 2011).

I'd love to know what the majority of the IAH connections were from AUS. Its not clear in the report.

2011 was a bad year for Japan traffic and in some ways traffic overall: soft economy and of course for Japan the tsunami. BOS is now close to 140 PDEW for Tokyo alone. Got the number from a routesonline article on EK.

http://www.routesonline.com/news/29/...rom-777-200lr-to-larger-777-300er/

We're almost in 2015 now and there's a lot of capacity at IAH and a couple of notorious airlines who like to undercut prices (TK being the most obvious one). There's a lot of reasons to make that drive from AUS now. More airlines at IAH may entice those who simply do not want to have a double connection as well especially with what QR, EK, TK and CA offer. Its only going to increase with BR and NH showing up.

Being BOS based, 'm not one to drive from Greater Boston to an NYC to save money etc. I probably would use a cheap B6 ticket from BOS to either EWR or JFK and give myself a lot of wiggle room schedule wise. Depending on the destination and throwing out the bizarre TK fares with 18 hour travel times to Western Europe, Transatlantic and Asia tend to be cheaper from JFK than BOS so a family of 4 could save a fair amount of money making the trip to Queens.
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN

2019: CX BOS-HKG, WE HKG-HKT, CA HKT-PEK-EWR, B6 EWR-BOS
 
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RE: Future AUS Expansion?

Thu Dec 25, 2014 2:22 pm

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 48):
2011 was a bad year for Japan traffic and in some ways traffic overall: soft economy and of course for Japan the tsunami. BOS is now close to 140 PDEW for Tokyo alone.

Certainly, no one is arguing that market stimulation doesn't happen, but BOS started from a much larger base. If you are suggesting that AUS can expect BOS-type stimulation, then NRT still isn't even a 30 PDEW route.

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 48):
We're almost in 2015 now and there's a lot of capacity at IAH and a couple of notorious airlines who like to undercut prices (TK being the most obvious one). There's a lot of reasons to make that drive from AUS now.

I'm not sure that NH, JL, HU or, for that matter, BA really wants to chase the passenger who is driving to IAH for TK fares.
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