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SocalApproach
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Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Wed Dec 10, 2014 5:56 am

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS SF) — Sustained winds at or near hurricane strength in the highest elevations with gusts exceeding 100 miles per hour across the Sierra summit are forecast for Thursday, with Bay Area winds easily gusting past 50 miles per hour in urban areas and 70-80 miles per hour in the local mountains and hills in what could be the storm of the decade.

http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/201...what-could-be-storm-of-the-decade/

Looks like the drought in the Bay Area is now an afterthought as weather continues to take a turn for the worst.
 
HNL
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Wed Dec 10, 2014 5:59 am

Quoting SocalApproach (Thread starter):
Looks like the drought in the Bay Area is now an afterthought as weather continues to take a turn for the worst.

It will take years of above average winter rains and snow pack to recover from the drought.
HNL - There's no place like it!
 
BD338
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Wed Dec 10, 2014 6:13 am

Quoting SocalApproach (Thread starter):
Looks like the drought in the Bay Area is now an afterthought as weather continues to take a turn for the worst.

The Bay Area needs long relatively slow snowfall in the Sierras to mitigate drought, not a short term massive dump of rainfall that will runoff into the ocean. Still, should prove for an interesting day at SFO, OAK and SJC
 
PHX787
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Wed Dec 10, 2014 7:12 am

It's a good thing all this crap is happening when I'm not flying...I suspect a huge backlog of flights.

As of right now, NH's website doesn't say anything regarding this.
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rentonview
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Wed Dec 10, 2014 7:49 am

This is not just a Bay Area storm; it will affect all of Northern CA, OR, WA, and southern BC. Northern CA will definitely get whalloped by rain and wind, but there's a higher chance of damaging winds further north up the coast. The low pressure center could very well track just to the west of Seattle, a classic scenario for damaging winds in the Pacific NW (65+ mph at SEA and PDX and 75 to 100+ mph on the coast and elsewhere). Thursday's wind would come on the heels of significant soil-saturating rains over the past few days, meaning large trees like Douglas Firs will be more easily toppled. Considering the misery that our last big windstorm caused in 2006 (even SEA lost power for a time), I'm hoping the storm will weaken before it hits Seattle. Being without power for over a week isn't fun.

Here's an infrared satellite view of the storm system as it approaches the West Coast tonight. You can see the huge mass of subtropical heading right for N. CA. After that front passes, a tightly wound low pressure center will rapidly develop off the CA coast and move towards OR and WA, bringing potentially damaging winds.

 
UA444
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Wed Dec 10, 2014 7:51 am

SMF, RDD, and CIC are going to be hit harder by the storm. And yeah, this drought is FAR from over.
 
as739x
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:12 am

Quoting SocalApproach (Thread starter):
Looks like the drought in the Bay Area is now an afterthought as weather continues to take a turn for the worst.

Not even close I am sorry to say. The Oakland water dept. had an interesting blurb a few weeks back that over the Thanksgiving week, all the rain was the equal to what Alameda Co. uses in 1-2 days. Granted it was a small amount of rain, but showed how much is actually used. Its all about the snow back and filling the reservoirs.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 3):
As of right now, NH's website doesn't say anything regarding this.

They won't be effected.

The strongest part of this storm will be hitting over Wed night and into Thursday morning. Traffic however will be greatly effected and UA has already started to go through the schedule. I suspect a lot of UAX cancellations.

Quoting UA444 (Reply 5):

No more flights to CIC. Don't know if anyone other then Ameriflight will get affected.
"Some pilots avoid storm cells and some play connect the dots!"
 
29erUSA187
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:49 pm

Uh oh. Between this and the new NOR EASTER in the northern east coast, this could get very bad for flights. I'm flying in a week, so I'm hoping this l clears up....
 
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DesertFlyer
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Wed Dec 10, 2014 5:36 pm

The winds should die down in the afternoon, so hopefully it helps that it won't last all day. At least I hope so since I'll be flying into OAK in the evening.
 
georgiaame
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Wed Dec 10, 2014 5:59 pm

I'm flying into SFO tonight. DL still showing an ontime departure out of ATL. Weather report is for rain showers, wind at 10PM when we land, the real stuff should begin after midnight. I'm indoors all day Th and Fri for the storm, but it should be interesting. Anyone else on the board who lives in the area of Union Square and has a row boat, please feel free to contact me. I might need you!
"Trust, but verify!" An old Russian proverb, quoted often by a modern American hero
 
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seabosdca
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Wed Dec 10, 2014 6:02 pm

We are expecting big-time wind tomorrow in the Seattle area. Not hurricane force as they are projecting in the Sierra foothills, but easily enough to create air traffic disruptions (and likely also close the WA-520 bridge which I cross to get to and from work) if the forecasts are accurate.

This is not atypical weather for November and December in the Northwest, but mudslides and tree damage should also be expected.

[Edited 2014-12-10 10:03:15]
 
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jetblastdubai
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Wed Dec 10, 2014 6:20 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 10):
but easily enough to create air traffic disruption

Since SEA has no intersecting runways, unless you get strong direct cross-winds, making none of the runway usable, it should not effect SEA traffic much at all.

SFO, on the other hand will probably lose the use of one set of parallels if the wind velocity gets above 15 kts and they will no doubt take a hit.
 
AeroWesty
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Wed Dec 10, 2014 6:24 pm

I was living in the Oakland/Piedmont hills in 1982/1983, and experienced both storms which closed the Golden Gate Bridge due to winds.

Quote:
December 23, 1982: High winds of up to 70 miles per hour closed the Bridge for almost two hours.
December 3, 1983: Once again high winds closed the Bridge for the longest period in its history—3 hours and 27 minutes. Wind gusts reached 75 miles per hour, but again the Bridge suffered no structural damage.
http://goldengatebridge.org/research/facts.php#BridgeClosed

That was kind of scary—the windows looking out toward the Bay were pulsating in the wind gusts. If it's announced that the bridges are closing, expect a doozy.
International Homo of Mystery
 
jetwet1
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Wed Dec 10, 2014 7:29 pm

I just got a winter storm warning for my place on Mt Charleston for Friday morning and for my house 1 miles from LAS for Friday afternoon...
 
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macsog6
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Wed Dec 10, 2014 8:03 pm

As someone who resides within walking distance of some of the summits of the Sierra Nevada mountains, winds up here blow quite forcefully very often. The Washoe Zephyr, as it is called, can easily reach 100mph gusts and does so several times a year.

We have a High Wind advisory in effect a good bit of the time, including right now with a High Wind warning starting at 2200 local, and a Winter Storm warning starting tomorrow (12 Dec) at 1300. Flying into RNO is going to be fun and if you need to go to the Bay area, try OAK as it usually stays open more often than SFO does.
Sixty Plus Years of Flying! "I fly because it releases my mind from the tyranny of petty things." - Saint Ex
 
zrs70
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Wed Dec 10, 2014 8:13 pm

I am flying NRT-SFO-LAX on 12/11. Yikes. I would bypass SFO and take the nonstop. But I have a convoluted ticket.
21 year airliners.net vet! 2000-2021
 
scutfarcus
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Wed Dec 10, 2014 8:17 pm

Yes, it's a big storm but the hyperbole in that news report is terrible... and what's with the photo of the flooded car? Are they taking pictures of the future now?

Anyway, I would certainly expect significant delays at SFO tomorrow!
 
TC957
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Wed Dec 10, 2014 8:25 pm

Just an average winter's day then for Scotland.
  
 
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macsog6
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Wed Dec 10, 2014 9:19 pm

Quoting TC957 (Reply 17):
Just an average winter's day then for Scotland.


Average? Based on the Scots that I know, I suspect they all be heading to the beach for an afternoon's sunbathing and swim.
Sixty Plus Years of Flying! "I fly because it releases my mind from the tyranny of petty things." - Saint Ex
 
ASA
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Wed Dec 10, 2014 9:22 pm

Quoting georgiaame (Reply 9):
I'm flying into SFO tonight. DL still showing an ontime departure out of ATL. Weather report is for rain showers, wind at 10PM when we land, the real stuff should begin after midnight. I'm indoors all day Th and Fri for the storm, but it should be interesting. Anyone else on the board who lives in the area of Union Square and has a row boat, please feel free to contact me. I might need you!

I'm flying into SFO on friday noon ... starting from BOS at 8 am. hopefully things will calm down a bit by then - otherwise the whole rebooking hassle etc - and I might lose the nonstop option as well.

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 10):
We are expecting big-time wind tomorrow in the Seattle area. Not hurricane force as they are projecting in the Sierra foothills, but easily enough to create air traffic disruptions (and likely also close the WA-520 bridge which I cross to get to and from work) if the forecasts are accurate.

oh yeah - the waves crashing on 520 bridge are a sight to watch ... stay dry!
 
ikramerica
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Wed Dec 10, 2014 9:36 pm

Quoting HNL (Reply 1):
It will take years of above average winter rains and snow pack to recover from the drought.

Define "recover"

It will take 1 year of well above average rainfall to replenish the snowpack and reservoirs. Just 1. The drought has not lasted that long. Only a few years ago there was record snow-pack in the Nevada mountains with record snow falls in Mammoth and Tahoe. California isn't a glacial area. The snow melts every year. Sometimes it's not until August, sometimes it's melted by May. But it melts. So the snow pack always resets.

Now, if you are talking about replenishing the water table, that is more a matter of a fundamental change in priorities. The west has been relying on the groundwater pumping to offset all the environmental regulations created to protect random fish in rivers. Not that those are necessarily wrong goals, but the result has been to pump more water and allow much of the yearly water to flow to the sea. Couple that with allowing populations to explode in the Southwest through unchecked immigration, and now we are seeing the unintended consequences.

Droughts and water shortages are related, but do not go hand in hand. Water shortages usually come from undercapacity in the system, lack of adequate long term storage and storage growth plans, and regulations that divert water to other uses or no use at all. We passed a water proposition in the state this year, but it's a not enough, not soon enough plan. Things will get worse.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
tylersmithsjc
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Wed Dec 10, 2014 9:41 pm

Quoting scutfarcus (Reply 16):
Anyway, I would certainly expect significant delays at SFO tomorrow!

Definitely. I would also expect a ton of diversions from SFO to OAK and SJC. Tomorrow is an exception when I say I would love to fly any day.
SJC/CLD
 
ikramerica
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Wed Dec 10, 2014 9:58 pm

Quoting tylersmithsjc (Reply 21):
Definitely. I would also expect a ton of diversions from SFO to OAK and SJC. Tomorrow is an exception when I say I would love to fly any day.

Try cancelations...
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
Georgetown
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:00 pm

Was supposed to fly OAK - SAN tonight, return on Thurs am. One of those rare times when I actually cancelled a business trip due to the weather as it feels like getting back home by Thursday evening might be a tough putt. Couple other people I know doing the same thing. Might be an over-reaction, but if the hassle can be avoided...

Rain in general drives me nuts here: as a UA out of SFO guy, as soon as any weather shows up I have to become a SW out of OAK guy. Would do anything for UA to bring back some OAK ops, but won't hold my breath.

Anyway, from the window of my office, the bay and winds are still calm and the clouds are rolling on in.
Let's go Hoyas!
 
29erUSA187
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:06 pm

Quoting Georgetown (Reply 23):
getting back home by Thursday evening might be a tough putt.

Dude, itll be windy and rainy at home, and sunny and nice in SoCal. Why not stay a few nights + enjoy the beach?
         
 
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psa1011
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:07 pm

Quoting Georgetown (Reply 23):
Rain in general drives me nuts here: as a UA out of SFO guy, as soon as any weather shows up I have to become a SW out of OAK guy. Would do anything for UA to bring back some OAK ops, but won't hold my breath.

Agreed. It's strange how OAK and SJC haven't seemed to benefit all that much from the crazy economic boom in the Bay.
 
Georgetown
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:15 pm

Quoting 29erUSA187 (Reply 24):
Why not stay a few nights + enjoy the beach?

Oh I would kill to. Mrs. Georgetown has a different perspective on that however.   

On the flip side, it is phenomenal belly-up-to-the-bar weather...
Let's go Hoyas!
 
mikesairways
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:26 pm

Quoting tylersmithsjc (Reply 21):
Definitely. I would also expect a ton of diversions from SFO to OAK and SJC. Tomorrow is an exception when I say I would love to fly any day.

I'm sure we will see a few diversions - but I'm sure many of the SFO inbounds will be reduced and/or cancelled. SJC and OAK will also have it's own weather issues if the winds are as predicted here.
The red zone is for the immediate loading and unloading of passengers only, there is no stopping in the white zone...(Ai
 
wn676
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:33 pm

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 12):
I was living in the Oakland/Piedmont hills in 1982/1983, and experienced both storms which closed the Golden Gate Bridge due to winds.

Quote:
December 23, 1982: High winds of up to 70 miles per hour closed the Bridge for almost two hours.
December 3, 1983: Once again high winds closed the Bridge for the longest period in its history—3 hours and 27 minutes. Wind gusts reached 75 miles per hour, but again the Bridge suffered no structural damage.
http://goldengatebridge.org/research/facts.php#BridgeClosed

That was kind of scary—the windows looking out toward the Bay were pulsating in the wind gusts. If it's announced that the bridges are closing, expect a doozy.

Although it doesn't look like this storm will come close, I do know that there is a wind speed not all that much higher from those experienced in the early '80s that will cause flutter up to the point of failure. Kind of one of those things you wish you hadn't heard.
Tiny, unreadable text leaves ample room for interpretation.
 
mikesairways
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:46 pm

The red zone is for the immediate loading and unloading of passengers only, there is no stopping in the white zone...(Ai
 
aklrno
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Wed Dec 10, 2014 11:55 pm

Quoting macsog6 (Reply 14):
As someone who resides within walking distance of some of the summits of the Sierra Nevada mountains, winds up here blow quite forcefully very often. The Washoe Zephyr, as it is called, can easily reach 100mph gusts and does so several times a year.

You don't have to walk all the way up to the summits for 100 mph winds. You could visit my house.

They don't call it Windy Hill for nothing!
 
stealth777
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Thu Dec 11, 2014 12:04 am

based on the current TAF it looks like SFO will be arriving and departing on the 19's.

KSFO 102100Z 1021/1124 18008G20KT P6SM BKN025 OVC160 FM110400 15018G28KT 6SM BR VCSH OVC020 FM110800 16028G38KT 5SM -RA BR OVC015 FM111500 15030G40KT 3SM RA BR OVC010 FM111800 15025G40KT 2SM +RA BR OVC015

not sure about the heavies or supers if they will depart the 10's or lighten up their loads to allow departures from the 19's.

-Stealth
 
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ua900
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Thu Dec 11, 2014 12:17 am

Quoting 29erUSA187 (Reply 7):
Uh oh. Between this and the new NOR EASTER in the northern east coast, this could get very bad for flights. I'm flying in a week, so I'm hoping this l clears up....

Going through both SFO and EWR within the next 48 hours. Should be fun.

Quoting Georgetown (Reply 23):
Rain in general drives me nuts here: as a UA out of SFO guy, as soon as any weather shows up I have to become a SW out of OAK guy. Would do anything for UA to bring back some OAK ops, but won't hold my breath.

   I remember doing ORD-OAK non-stop on a UA 752 around 2007. Those were the days.
2020: AMS | ATL | BRU | DAL | DEN | DFW | EWR | FRA | GUA | IAH | LAX | LIM | MCO | MUC | ORD | PTY | SAL | SCL | SFO | TPA | TXL
 
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ordell
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Thu Dec 11, 2014 2:52 am

I would love to see before and after pictures of the San Luis Reservoir by highway 152. That would be a good measure of the rainfall.
 
modesto2
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Thu Dec 11, 2014 6:09 am

Just dodged the bullet and arrived this evening at SFO on BA287 from LHR. SFO is still has a Ground Delay Program, and winds associated with the storm are forcing a reverse flow with arrivals on 19.
 
aklrno
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Thu Dec 11, 2014 7:09 am

Quoting ordell (Reply 33):
I would love to see before and after pictures of the San Luis Reservoir by highway 152. That would be a good measure of the rainfall.

That is a pumped storage reservoir. Very little of its water comes from above the dam. It is a clever way to store some California Aqueduct water while arbitraging power prices. Water is pumped uphill during the night when power prices are low and then run downhill to generate power during the day when prices are higher. IIRC the natural runoff barely covers evaporation losses.
 
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ordell
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Thu Dec 11, 2014 7:49 am

Quoting aklrno (Reply 35):
That is a pumped storage reservoir. Very little of its water comes from above the dam. It is a clever way to store some California Aqueduct water while arbitraging power prices. Water is pumped uphill during the night when power prices are low and then run downhill to generate power during the day when prices are higher. IIRC the natural runoff barely covers evaporation losses.

However it's used, it's darn low. Last time i drove past it was 4 years ago and you could see how high up the old waterline was, meaning the water levels were very far below normal levels. i can't imagine what it looks like now.
 
SocalApproach
Topic Author
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Thu Dec 11, 2014 8:15 am

VX had a few cancellations today but I presume it was to help with getting a few extra slots due to the Ground Delay Program. Doesn't happen much with VX but load factors were low today so they can get away with it. However for tomorrow the following flights have been cancelled out of SFO for preparation for the storm:

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/VRD922
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/VRD740
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/VRD950
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/VRD902

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/VRD935
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/VRD953
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/VRD753
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/VRD905
 
VXCabinCrew
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Thu Dec 11, 2014 6:41 pm

Just left out of SFO for JFK on AA flight 164. It looks as if AA, UA and VX were cancelling short sector flights in favor of maintaining transcons. We boarded ontime, but held at the gate for about 45 minutes while the take off runways were reconfigured. They switched departures to the south (taking off over 101 and Millbrae). The pilot said that this aircraft type (A321T) had not used that runway for takeoff before, so they had to run some calculations through Dallas. It was one of the most powerful and shortest take offs that I've experienced.
 
tp1040
Posts: 373
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Thu Dec 11, 2014 6:58 pm

Using the 28s. Looks like a pretty good turn and climb on departure.
 
stealth777
Posts: 354
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Thu Dec 11, 2014 10:09 pm

Quoting tp1040 (Reply 39):

SFO is not using the 28's. They are currently departing the 10's and arriving on the 19's. Typical Southeast Plan flow.
 
stealth777
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:08 am

SFO has now switched to departing and arriving 28L/R, however SJC and OAK are still on the Southeast Plan flow.
 
modesto2
Posts: 2731
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Fri Dec 12, 2014 2:37 am

Quoting stealth777 (Reply 41):

Interesting, I didn't know they could split the Bay Area operations like that with SFO in a west flow and OAK & SJC in the southeast flow.
 
Gemuser
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Fri Dec 12, 2014 2:46 am

Have just been advised by my son that the 11 Dec UA863 SFO-SYD has been cancelled and he is being reroute to UA839 via LAX-SYD. Reason given by UA at SFO is due "ATC equipment damage".

Gemuser
DC23468910;B72172273373G73873H74374475275376377L77W;A319 320321332333343;BAe146;C402;DHC6;F27;L188;MD80MD85
 
stratacruiser
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RE: Potential Storm Of The Decade In SFO - DEC11

Fri Dec 12, 2014 2:53 am

I was on UA 1759 SFO-BOS this morning. Door was closed ahead of the scheduled 0836 departure time, but we sat for a more than an hour while UA ops looked at whether the 739's weight would permit it take off on the in service runways. Eventually we left on 10L.

Dave

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