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Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 3:51 am

To continue, please post here.

Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production? (by spiplane Dec 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

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Ben Soriano
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 4:19 am

Quote from the previous thread!

Quote:
If that's the sort of thing that floats your boat, you'd be better employed following NAV 30

I think this thread has gone to the dogs!

I think you were referring to NAV20. NAV30 is a different person!
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 4:41 am

As we know, Tim Clark / EK had a lot of forceful things to say when the Airbus CFO appeared to intimate that the A380 product might be shelved a few years from now unless orders picked up. But, was there any public reaction from other airlines who fly (or who have ordered) the A380? Regards. -ir
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 5:52 am

Just to clear some matters I never stated about the chances of a engine failure on a twin vs a quad, JUST the PUBLIC perception.

Twins are here to stay, but anyhow the thing here is, let say Tim Clark demands 150 A389 Neo from airbus and RR steps in and handles the $$$$ expense, great ! but who is going to buy 130 to 140 Used A388? and at what price? In México we have a saying that says " He got the tiger in the lottery " meaning you got something nobody wants.... could that be the case for used 12 to 13 year old A388´s ??

Maybe those frames could be refurbished for Ultra high density and use 700 seats for intra China flights, or something that warrants such large aircraft, but only time and economic situation 10 years from now will say...

I am still on the A380 bandwagon, demand will grow and airspace wont.

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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 5:59 am

Quoting TheRedBaron (Reply 3):
I am still on the A380 bandwagon, demand will grow and airspace wont.

It will still need more airports capable of handling it or multiple A380s though...
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 6:11 am

From what I've read on this board the A380 isn't well suited for high frequency operations.
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 6:29 am

Quoting Prost (Reply 5):
From what I've read on this board the A380 isn't well suited for high frequency operations.

Well, obviously the turn-around times are a problem, as you have to handle many passengers and luggage, apart from that the A380 would do just fine. (at an airport ready for it)

But in general I still do not see the NEO. What engine (RR Advanced?) and who would need a stretch and what would you do with the used CEOs? (to Victorville when they turn 12 years old?)

I still think stretching the A350 to A350-1100 is more important. Airbus can leave the 777-8 alone but it needs something that has the capacity of the 777-9, even if this plane won´t have the same range, but that might be acceptable if it wins on CASM.
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 8:45 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 4):
It will still need more airports capable of handling it or multiple A380s though...

This was one of the main reasons that were mentioned during the early days of the "A380-a.net-wars" (someone used this term in part 1 and I really like it). But in the meantime we had so many threads about airports investing in A 380-infrastructure that I think this is no longer a crucial issue for the future (or the ending to stick to the thread title) of this programme.

Quoting seahawk (Reply 6):
Quoting Prost (Reply 5):From what I've read on this board the A380 isn't well suited for high frequency operations.
Well, obviously the turn-around times are a problem, as you have to handle many passengers and luggage, apart from that the A380 would do just fine. (at an airport ready for it)

In October I talked to someone who is using CZ's domestic A 380-flights frequently. He said the plane is always packed (in business class).
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 8:51 am

packed flights does not mean they are making any money on it...

also it is CZ government owned- no real clarity on costs/profits and can afford making losses as it is backed up by now by many measures the government running the largest economy...
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 9:04 am

Quoting seahawk (Reply 6):
I still think stretching the A350 to A350-1100 is more important.

I agree with this. Also, I would have prefered to see Airbus focus on the A358 instead of the A330NEO. I have no doubt the A330NEO will do well and just look how successful the A330 is, but the A358 would have been a far more advanced plane IMO that could do everything the A330NEO could do plus more...

Quoting N14AZ (Reply 7):
But in the meantime we had so many threads about airports investing in A 380-infrastructure that I think this is no longer a crucial issue for the future (or the ending to stick to the thread title) of this programme.

It is always good to see airports expanding to allow the accommodation of aircraft like the A380. But, we also know that space is already pretty maxed out at major airports like LHR, JFK, LAX, etc. If every airports was like DXB this would not be an issue  
Quoting seahawk (Reply 6):
Quoting Prost (Reply 5):
From what I've read on this board the A380 isn't well suited for high frequency operations.

Well, obviously the turn-around times are a problem, as you have to handle many passengers and luggage, apart from that the A380 would do just fine. (at an airport ready for it)

I guess on long-haul flights this is not as much of an issue, but on the shorter A380 sectors that are flown between long-haul flights this could become an issue when there are delays.
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 9:19 am

Quoting Kashmon (Reply 8):
packed flights does not mean they are making any money on it...

* sigh *  

Let us sum the A380 critisism up now, shall we:
1) The A380 is not feasible because so few airports can accomodate it
2) The A380 is not feasible because it is impossible to fill it
3) Even when airports CAN accomodate the A380, doesn't mean that they will
4) Even when the airlines fill the plane it is unprofitable still
5) The only reason some airlines still buy this behemoth is because they are government backed (possibly involved in a plot)

I want to congratulate this thread in reaching a new low on A380 criticism!
  
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 9:30 am

Quoting hilram (Reply 10):

jeepers I hope the A380 continues and am hoping for the stretched version

just do not use CZ or any Chinese government airline as evidence for operational success for any aircraft period...

BA/AH/LH even EK and of course SQ- a brilliantly managed airline
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 9:40 am

Quoting TheRedBaron (Reply 3):
let say Tim Clark demands 150 A389 Neo from airbus and RR steps in and handles the $$$$ expense, great ! but who is going to buy 130 to 140 Used A388? and at what price? In México we have a saying that says " He got the tiger in the lottery " meaning you got something nobody wants.... could that be the case for used 12 to 13 year old A388´s ??

TC has already stated that they can be parked in the desert when he is finished with them.

Quoting seahawk (Reply 6):
(to Victorville when they turn 12 years old?)

Yup.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 9):
I would have prefered to see Airbus focus on the A358 instead of the A330NEO. I have no doubt the A330NEO will do well and just look how successful the A330 is, but the A358 would have been a far more advanced plane IMO that could do everything the A330NEO could do plus more...

I think the A358 died because the 789 outclassed it. The 789 being a stretch of a smaller plane was more efficient since the A358 was a shrink of a larger one. The A338/A339 can compete because of better price and availability (the latter was a big factor in the DL order, from what I understand.)
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 10:18 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 9):

I agree with this. Also, I would have prefered to see Airbus focus on the A358 instead of the A330NEO. I have no doubt the A330NEO will do well and just look how successful the A330 is, but the A358 would have been a far more advanced plane IMO that could do everything the A330NEO could do plus more...

I think dropping the A358 was needed to even think about the A350-1100. The supply chain is limiting the production capability for the A350, so imho A338/339 are perfect additions, although maybe a little less capable but good enough for most users.
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 10:42 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 12):

I think the A358 died because the 789 outclassed it. The 789 being a stretch of a smaller plane was more efficient since the A358 was a shrink of a larger one. The A338/A339 can compete because of better price and availability (the latter was a big factor in the DL order, from what I understand.)

Agree. I think it was mentioned that the A358 simply had "too much wing" for that fuselage. So Airbus admitted (John Leahy) that for that size, an A338 would actually be more efficient!
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 11:07 am

Quoting seahawk (Reply 6):
Well, obviously the turn-around times are a problem, as you have to handle many passengers and luggage

Some A380s have a turnaround time of 2 hours.
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:10 pm

Quoting seahawk (Reply 6):
Well, obviously the turn-around times are a problem

If you look at the turn around time per pax, the A380 should be the most efficient aircraft around.
Two 77Ws are neither handled cheaper nor quicker. Regarding usage of airport resources the A380 should be quite good.
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:21 pm

@ Moderators: Should this thread not better be closed? Since the rumours about ending the production are at present far from reality. Also, with so many A380 threads open which all more or less address the same topics, it becomes very confusing. At least it is to me.  
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 1:03 pm

Quoting mffoda (Reply 234 (from part #1)):
Well they're getting closer to Boeing's accounting method now (from 247wallst.com).


Analyst reactions were mixed, especially to a change in the way Airbus will account for the first few planes in its A350 program. They will now use contract accounting, which averages the costs for the planes over the contract for each delivery. This is similar to Boeing’s program accounting system, where the company spreads development costs out over each plane in a program by charging costs as each plane is delivered to a customer. A UBS analyst noted this would improve Airbus profits by 50 basis points in each of the next two years and reduce profits by the same amount in the following two years.

http://247wallst.com/aerospace-defen...hurt-by-airbus-meeting-commentary/


Well, you are correct, that is basically Program Accounting in a limited fashion. Apparently they defer production costs of individual contracts to later frames (i.e there will be deferred production costs from Qatar's very first frames to their later frames).
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 1:49 pm

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 17):
@ Moderators: Should this thread not better be closed? Since the rumours about ending the production are at present far from reality. Also, with so many A380 threads open which all more or less address the same topics, it becomes very confusing. At least it is to me.

If I close it then somebody else will start a new A380 thread. And that'll be even more confusing. There'll be links posted to this thread that I archived recently.

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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 1:52 pm

Quoting r2rho,reply=311(from Part 1):

This I wonder too. In general, actual average seating density is lower than what Airbus predicted initially. Except EK, all other airlines are using it for premium markets. But I do see a market for a 600-800 seat aircraft to leisure destinations. i.e AF sends high-density 744's and 77W's to the French overseas territories, why don't they try with a 600 seat A380? Let's see what Transaero has in mind when they get theirs, that will likely be the first - and successful - application of a less premium seating, which might inspire other airlines to follow suit.

I think most airlines are worried about seasonality. No doubt there are plenty of airlines that can fill 600-800 seat aircraft to leisure destinations in the high season (and likewise, many airlines can fill premium heavy A380s in the high season), the question is if they have the route network to profitably fill 600-800 seat aircraft in the low season.

No point in making higher profits in the high season if it is all wiped out by larger losses all the other times of the year.
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 5:13 pm

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 17):

@ Moderators: Should this thread not better be closed? Since the rumours about ending the production are at present far from reality. Also, with so many A380 threads open which all more or less address the same topics, it becomes very confusing. At least it is to me.  

Given that Airbus's stock is down 15+% because of a Airbus executive speaking candidly about The A380's woes, it's pretty major aviation news. Frankly, I am shocked it's not getting more play here, but it might just be because most of us have known that this program was in deep trouble for quite a while.

What if the CFO of Boeing spoke for a half second about shuttering the 787 line. Can you imagine the threads here, whiplash etc?
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 5:34 pm

As the Rubble hits historic low, what about the TransAero A380 order?
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 6:01 pm

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 17):
@ Moderators: Should this thread not better be closed? Since the rumours about ending the production are at present far from reality. Also, with so many A380 threads open which all more or less address the same topics, it becomes very confusing. At least it is to me.

Since when has that stopped a.net from random speculation? I seem to remember endless A350, 787, and A330NEO threads all going at once, especially over the 787's production woes.
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 6:36 pm

Quoting NeutronStar73 (Reply 23):
Since when has that stopped a.net from random speculation? I seem to remember endless A350, 787, and A330NEO threads all going at once, especially over the 787's production woes.

What bothers me here is the headline. When reading it you get the false information that Airbus is actually considering closing the A380 production. Since this is wrong this thread I Think might as well be deleted completely.
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 6:45 pm

An aircraft which nobody wants except for the worlds most successful airline? I always avoid the Boeing v Airbus crwod because I happen to know it was Boeing who played dirty with Concorde landing rights in America. Its same old same old.
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 7:27 pm

The A380 will have a "second act", but the airlines need to re-think how they use them.

The original concept of the A380 being the "cruise ship of the air" has been romantic and fun for a privileged few, but it is obsolete thinking. This plane has a unique capability to fly more people, more economically than any aircraft ever built and the airlines need to take advantage of this ability. A380s hauling only 485 or even 525 passengers are leaving money on the table, when the current configuration can easily accommodate 550 passengers, or more.

Airbus has time to play with before a A380NEO is required. Their current backlog should hold them until 2019-2020. If the world economies continue to grow, the market should be ready for a A380NEO by 2020, so maybe a launch decision by next year?

The A380NEO does not need to be a "clean sheet" redesign. Engine technologies being used in the A350 could be adapted by Rolls for a significant A380 engine upgrade. The current wing and fuselage are already designed to accommodate a future fuselage stretch. With plenty of airline experience to pull from, the weight budget could get some needed tweaks.

Finally, we are reading too much into the Airbus CFO's comments. Financial analysts at quarterly earnings reports meetings are more concerned about "what have you done for me lately". I think the CFO tossed out the hypothetical A380 comments trying to throw those analysts a "bone".
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 7:31 pm

The current A380 can carry more pax but no airline - and Airbus has not encouraged it - has added seats by lowering pitch etc. it for all intents and purposes is a premium a/c.
Now Airbus is considering lowering the floor to allow additional seats in the current version and we all agree that the NEO and the stretch now being talked about will carry more pax, so my question, will Airbus allow any airline to hedge their bets and install the additional seats on the current version rather than buying the NEO and the stretch version? Hopefully as was mentioned in one of the now deleted threads, the new engines for the NEO will be backward compatible for installation on the original.

Quoting goosebayguy (Reply 25):
I always avoid the Boeing v Airbus crwod because I happen to know it was Boeing who played dirty with Concorde landing rights in America.

So that's why a number of governments around the world banned overflights of the a/c, I always thought it was the NIMBY's. Thankfully, we did not knuckle under the Boeing / US Government duopoly and I was able to board the a/c at NAS and get a good look at her, impressive outside, inside..............
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 8:31 pm

Quoting FLALEFTY (Reply 26):
A380s hauling only 485 or even 525 passengers are leaving money on the table, when the current configuration can easily accommodate 550 passengers, or more.

And where will these extra 100+ passengers year round for each flight come from? Lower fares that further trash yields and make profitability even more challenging?

This program is in trouble regardless of the technical merits of the aircraft itself. It is a fine aircraft but the niche it was designed for simply hasn't materialized. As traffic grows it continues to splinter into greater frequency and hub bypassing direct flights. Neither of those factors helps the A380's case. Both of them harm it further.

Of course Tim Clark is having a fit. The one operator for whom the aircraft is extremely well suited stands to lose its competitive edge if the project dies. The other operators not so much.

If Airbus continues to throw money down this pit they jeopardize further their ability to fund further development of the A350, development of a real challenger to 777-9X and further down the line a replacement for the A320 line. The ROI on continuing to press an unsuccessful (though technically excellent) project simply isn't in the best interests of Airbus itself. Those resources are simply much better spent elsewhere.
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 8:33 pm

Quoting FLALEFTY (Reply 26):
A380s hauling only 485 or even 525 passengers are leaving money on the table, when the current configuration can easily accommodate 550 passengers, or more.

Now will you explain how an airline is expected to fill 550 seats on a Tuesday morning in Feb?
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 8:35 pm

Quoting FLALEFTY (Reply 26):
A380s hauling only 485 or even 525 passengers are leaving money on the table, when the current configuration can easily accommodate 550 passengers, or more.

Airbus has time to play with before a A380NEO is required

Spot on post IMO. Agree with pretty much all of it.   

Quoting Flaps (Reply 28):
And where will these extra 100+ passengers year round for each flight come from?

From 525 (the average configuration) to 550 is a total of 25 extra seats.

By c. 2020, in 6 years time, they shouldn't be too hard to find

Rgds
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 8:43 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 30):
From 525 (the average configuration) to 550 is a total of 25 extra seats.

By c. 2020, in 6 years time, they shouldn't be too hard to find

Yeah, but do you need an NEO for that, why not a re-engine of the current bird and removal of this "stigma" that the a/c is not a people hauler but a luxury ship in the sky, so that airlines will not be "afraid" to put in more seats.
I find it hard to believe that the airlines by themselves just decided to use the lowest possible pax count but on every other a/c they want to cram in as much as they can.
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 9:04 pm

Quoting par13del (Reply 31):
Yeah, but do you need an NEO for that,

Not really, but if you can carry that load with lower costs in the area of 10-12% it might become a very attractive proposition to go on the neb-path with the A380. It's design is from the period 2000-2007. By 2020 it needs the upgrade we are speculating about at present. Which is normal compared to other airliners as well. Nothing special here. If the other airliners were not updated also they too would have become obsolete and outdated. The competition is always tough in the market place.  
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 9:13 pm

Quoting par13del (Reply 31):
Yeah, but do you need an NEO for that, why not a re-engine of the current bird and removal of this "stigma" that the a/c is not a people hauler but a luxury ship in the sky, so that airlines will not be "afraid" to put in more seats.
I find it hard to believe that the airlines by themselves just decided to use the lowest possible pax count but on every other a/c they want to cram in as much as they can.

Wasn't one of the reasons Airbus gave for cancelling the Skymark A380 order that they weren't showing good faith or whatever by intending to use them in a 800-seat high density configuration? Can Airbus really turn around from that to encouraging airlines to put more seats into their A380's?


Edit: No, nevermind. Apparently Skymark planeed to use them in a 394-seat premium configuration. No idea where I got the stuff I was thinking of from.



[Edited 2014-12-12 13:14:06]

[Edited 2014-12-12 13:18:12]
 
astuteman
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 9:17 pm

Quoting par13del (Reply 31):
Yeah, but do you need an NEO for that, why not a re-engine of the current bird

You lost me there. In my book those are the same thing .....

In which case I think we're agreeing  

Rgds
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 9:22 pm

Quoting ThReaTeN (Reply 33):

Wasn't one of the reasons Airbus gave for cancelling the Skymark A380 order that they weren't showing good faith or whatever by intending to use them in a 800-seat high density configuration?

No, the Skymark order was canceled because Skymark didn't secure the necessary financing.
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 9:33 pm

Quoting hilram (Reply 35):

That said Airbus did also push for Skymark to partner with JL or ANA. I don't think they had much faith in Skymark's plans for the A380 (for good reason, it was incredibly risky to say the least).
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 9:43 pm

Does anybody know what the configuration of Emirates A380s that won't have first class will be? This might be a barometer of just how the A380 might be able to haul more people more efficiently than any other plane. The only issue that I see with this is no other airline has enough A380s in their fleets to have as many configurations to meet market demands like Emirates will be able to do.

I believe someone said that the A380s that Emirates plans on using to India, Pakistan, Thailand and possibly Manila wouldn't have first class, would it also have a reduced business class cabin? Sorry if it's been answered, I've kind of lost track of the thread.
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 9:46 pm

Quoting Prost (Reply 37):
Does anybody know what the configuration of Emirates A380s that won't have first class will be?

When discussing two-class birds back in the 2000's, they used figures of 617 and 653 seats...
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 10:14 pm

Quoting hilram (Reply 35):
What bothers me here is the headline. When reading it you get the false information that Airbus is actually considering closing the A380 production. Since this is wrong this thread I Think might as well be deleted completely

Unfortunately, Airbus faces the situation that either A380 production will end after the current backlog has been delivered or Airbus will re-engine A380. So the headline is basically correct. It is unusual though that a company admits weaknesses in their product line-up. Boeing is in even worse situation with 748: the production will end after the current backlog and the presidential replacement planes have been delivered in 2018, and Boeing doesn't even have any feasible re-engining option. But officially Boeing still states that the cargo market will recover and they will continue 748 production (of course, if Boeing admitted that the production will end, Boeing would have to immediately book a write-down of few billion USD due to Program Accounting they are using in which there is a larger block size than the current backlog size).
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 11:13 pm

Quoting FLALEFTY (Reply 26):
Airbus has time to play with before a A380NEO is required. Their current backlog should hold them until 2019-2020.

The Airbus CFO has a somewhat different way of phrasing things:

Quote:

While Airbus will break even on the plane in 2015, 2016 and 2017, that outlook doesn’t hold for 2018, forcing the company to either offer new engines to make the A380 more attractive or discontinue the program, Chief Financial Officer Harald Wilhelm told investors at a meeting in London today.

Ref: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...faces-spend-or-fade-conundrum.html

Seems he's worried about 2018 and the big slide in Airbus shares mean the market is taking this seriously.

Quoting FLALEFTY (Reply 26):
The A380NEO does not need to be a "clean sheet" redesign. Engine technologies being used in the A350 could be adapted by Rolls for a significant A380 engine upgrade.

The state of the art in that time frame will be GE-9X and it is debatable but it seems A380neo needs to be using similar engine tech.

http://leehamnews.com/2014/02/03/upd...-a-neo-version-and-whats-involved/ gave us:



Their analysis concluded that A380neo would end up with a TXWB derivative mostly based on the fact that there is no good business case for launching a more advanced (sic) engine on A380.

We can see that TXWB engines are in the -7% range relative to current A380 engines which is excellent, but engines for 2021 will be in the -12% range.

Quoting FLALEFTY (Reply 26):
Finally, we are reading too much into the Airbus CFO's comments. Financial analysts at quarterly earnings reports meetings are more concerned about "what have you done for me lately". I think the CFO tossed out the hypothetical A380 comments trying to throw those analysts a "bone".

Yet the market is taking him very seriously.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=A...d%22%2C%22scale%22%3A%22linear%22} shows a 17% loss for EADS for the week.
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 11:19 pm

The presentation stated that at current production rates the A380 is only breaking even and will do so for the next 3 years. After that, unless the production gaps are filled it will make a loss. This may be an inconvenient truth for some but presumably Airbus are in business to make money. What this presentation has done is to make the 'elephant in the room' visible.

Anyone know how many B748's need to be built per year to break even?
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 11:38 pm

Quoting fcogafa (Reply 41):
The presentation stated that at current production rates the A380 is only breaking even and will do so for the next 3 years. After that, unless the production gaps are filled it will make a loss.

Indeed which raises so many questions. Given A330neo EIS is late 2017, how soon thereafter could one expect an A380neo based on similar TXWB technology? Will TXWB technology be good enough to make it worth investing the EUR 2B or so that the press is saying it will take? If it needs better tech than TXWB, how long will that take, and how will that business case look, and how will the production line be maintained till that better tech is ready? If they go with TXWB technology, won't they be needing to do another expensive NEO fairly quickly to remain competitive with the GE-9X/Advance generation of technology?
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DarkSnowyNight
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Fri Dec 12, 2014 11:51 pm

Quoting 32andBelow (Reply 29):
Now will you explain how an airline is expected to fill 550 seats on a Tuesday morning in Feb?

By putting on a high density trunk route. An airline actually can fill 380s year round if deployed correctly. The issue is just that there are not that many routes that will do that and/or you'll need to trash the last 15% of your yield to do it.

But routes like LAX-LHR will not only fill them year round, it's probably reasonable to add one or two more 380s.

Quoting par13del (Reply 31):
I find it hard to believe that the airlines by themselves just decided to use the lowest possible pax count but on every other a/c they want to cram in as much as they can.

On the surface that is a little interesting. But in practice, the 380 really is best suited as a Premium product aircraft. We see configs down into the 300s because the return on J & F has been very well on those heavily trafficked trunk routes. While there is a lot of hoopla about CASM, lower density higher yield seems to be a much lower risk for the 380.

For that reason, I really don't see the need for a NEO just yet. I do think a stagnating order book will eventually compel otherwise (given a decent forecast of ROI) sooner or later.

Quoting Prost (Reply 37):
Does anybody know what the configuration of Emirates A380s that won't have first class will be?

644 was what I heard most recently, but that was from an article I read at least two years ago. I'm sure the exact figure will be revisited.
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 12:52 am

Quoting DarkSnowyNight (Reply 43):
An airline actually can fill 380s year round if deployed correctly

I begin to wonder if 'filling' them does much good? With engine power increasing, the airlines may soon face a choice between 400-odd passengers in a big twin, or say 500-odd in an A380. It seems entirely possible, even likely, that the 400/twin approach (given reduced capital cost, lower fuel consumption, reduced maintenance cost, wider choice of airports etc.) might well be more profitable than the say 500/four one?

Airlines aren't charities..........   If 400-plus-seat twins turn out to be more profitable, on a day-to-day basis, than 500-plus A380s and/or 450-plus B747s, is there not a distinct possibility that the 'big fours' will eventually be phased out because they are just plain less profitable?

[Edited 2014-12-12 17:03:04]
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 1:23 am

Quoting seahawk (Reply 6):
But in general I still do not see the NEO. What engine (RR Advanced?) and who would need a stretch and what would you do with the used CEOs? (to Victorville when they turn 12 years old?)

The irony is that EK would likely destroy any market there is for new build A380s when they start casting off their gently used CEO models into the desert.

Why buy a new one when you can get a screaming deal on a quality used one?

Quoting Flaps (Reply 28):
This program is in trouble regardless of the technical merits of the aircraft itself. It is a fine aircraft but the niche it was designed for simply hasn't materialized. As traffic grows it continues to splinter into greater frequency and hub bypassing direct flights. Neither of those factors helps the A380's case. Both of them harm it further.

That's exactly it. It's a fine aircraft, it just has a very narrow market that it can effectively be used in.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 40):
Seems he's worried about 2018 and the big slide in Airbus shares mean the market is taking this seriously.

Airbus shares also lost 10% after that news, so it seems there is some genuine concern here.
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 1:40 am

Quoting Revelation (Reply 42):
Indeed which raises so many questions. Given A330neo EIS is late 2017, how soon thereafter could one expect an A380neo based on similar TXWB technology?

First of all, the A330neo will use T7000 engines which for most practical things is a bleed version of the T1000 TEN (yes, the TEN includes some TXWB technology).

Quoting Revelation (Reply 42):
Will TXWB technology be good enough to make it worth investing the EUR 2B or so that the press is saying it will take?

We have become so used to the fact that "neo" means a substantial overhaul of 20-25 years old planes, including new state of the art engines.

But the A380 is a 21st century design. I wouldn't be the slightest surprised to learn that Airbus is already working on a common engine (T7000) installation on A330neo and A380neo. Including mostly identical nacelles. That would make economic sence.

And I don't believe in any €2B Investment to hang a slightly newer Trent engine version on the A380. They may take the opportunity to make a few other updates, but nothing like what they are doing on the A320neo and A330neo.

If it costs €2B to hang on a slightly different engine, then it is unbelievable how they in older days had the choise of two of three very different engines on widebody aircrafts.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 42):
If it needs better tech than TXWB, how long will that take, and how will that business case look, and how will the production line be maintained till that better tech is ready? If they go with TXWB technology, won't they be needing to do another expensive NEO fairly quickly to remain competitive with the GE-9X/Advance generation of technology?

The GE-9X and RR advance are for most practical things entirely new engines, scheduled to be ready in 2020 or slightly later, and should promise a 5% efficiency advantage over the TXWB / T1000 TEN and GEnx.

If we look at history, both GEnx and T1000 initiated development in the early days of this century. They took advantage of 3½ years delay of the B787, but still didn't deliver as promissed until recently.

Unfortunately it is resonable to expect that it won't be easier to make the GE-9X and RR Advance. If the development turns out much the same way, then we can expect them to deliver 5% over the TXWB in the later part of the 2020'es, something like 2026-2028. That's of course pure guesswork, and we can all make our individual guesses.

None are better to guess than the GE and RR managements. And last time they tried they were both about five years wrong.
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 1:41 am

I think the idea of hauling around 600-800 people is risky. Airlines have thrown around the idea but none have followed through with it. The only one that comes to mind is Air Austral and they're not in a position to take delivery of their order. Are people really interested in flying like sardines on a plane that prides itself as spacious, comfortable and inviting? 50 passengers per 1 FA right?? flying 700 pax requires 14 FA's and 2 flight crew at the very minimum. When you are flying that many people where are the showers, bars and the other amenities that people love and flock to the A380 for?? No room for it if you're flying 700+ people. Sorry, I just don't see it. People love the A380 for the reasons that I mentioned above. EK who has the largest fleet of A380's is not interested in flying around 800 people from A to B. Neither is SQ, QF, MH, TG, CZ, QR, LH, AF or EY.

The best way for Airbus to get out of this is to say no to EK and the NEO, sit down and contemplate on if a 777-9 competitor is worth the time and money.



Side note With the news of Boeing cutting production and Airbus thinking of stopping the A380 line is sales don't pick up, it looks like the TK RFP for A380's or 748's has evaporated.
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 1:48 am

Quoting prebennorholm (Reply 46):
If we look at history, both GEnx and T1000 initiated development in the early days of this century. They took advantage of 3½ years delay of the B787, but still didn't deliver as promissed until recently.

Unfortunately it is resonable to expect that it won't be easier to make the GE-9X and RR Advance. If the development turns out much the same way, then we can expect them to deliver 5% over the TXWB in the later part of the 2020'es, something like 2026-2028. That's of course pure guesswork, and we can all make our individual guesses.

On the flip side, the Trent XWB arrived on time and on-spec as it was based heavily on Trent 1000 technology. So the "lessons learned" on the Trent 1000 helped the Trent XWB.

The GE-9X looks to draw heavily from the GEnx, so it may very well be on-spec when it enters service.

[Edited 2014-12-12 17:48:31]
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 2:01 am

Quoting Revelation (Reply 40):
The state of the art in that time frame will be GE-9X and it is debatable but it seems A380neo needs to be using similar engine tech.

http://leehamnews.com/2014/02/03/upd...-a-neo-version-and-whats-involved/ gave us:



Their analysis concluded that A380neo would end up with a TXWB derivative mostly based on the fact that there is no good business case for launching a more advanced (sic) engine on A380.

We can see that TXWB engines are in the -7% range relative to current A380 engines which is excellent, but engines for 2021 will be in the -12% range.

Thank you for this post! This analysis by Leeham does a nice job of explaining the A380NEO options, puts & takes.

I imagine that Airbus is in the same position with the A380NEO program that Boeing was in when they debated launching the B744 variant back in the1980s. However, as we know now, the B744 turned out to be the most successful model of the 747 family.

Now the B748????? Not so much. But that's a discussion for another thread.

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