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7BOEING7
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 3:04 am

Quoting FLALEFTY (Reply 49):
I imagine that Airbus is in the same position with the A380NEO program that Boeing was in when they debated launching the B744 variant back in the1980s

I don't think so. By the the time the 744 received its first order there had already been 623 747's delivered and Boeing was making $$$ hand over fist on the airplane -- improving it took a lot less thought than putting more $$$ into the A380NEO will.
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 3:20 am

Quoting FLALEFTY (Reply 49):
I imagine that Airbus is in the same position with the A380NEO program that Boeing was in when they debated launching the B744 variant back in the1980s. However, as we know now, the B744 turned out to be the most successful model of the 747 family.

However, at the time of the launch of the 744, no airliner--not even the 747SP--could fly around 7,100 nautical miles still-air range. As such, airlines bought the 744 in large numbers because it was the first airliner that could fly really long routes like NRT-JFK and HKG-SFO in both directions almost year-round.

Today, airlines realize the A380-800 is just too big a plane, even on busy routes. Boeing ended up building a more appropriate 744 replacement with the 77W, which has become the most popular model of the 777. And it appears that the airlines will flock to buy the Airbus A35J, Boeing 778 and Boeing 779 airliners to replace their aging 744 fleets. (Indeed, I can foresee Boeing offering a lower MTOW 778--I'll call it the 777-5 (775) with a range of 7,300 to 7,500 nautical miles, which is perfect for many airlines on most intercontinental routes.)

As such, the A380-800 will end up being a more niche plane than Airbus envisioned. Airbus will have to settle for selling a lot more A338, A339, A359 and A35J models in the long run.
 
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SEPilot
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 3:22 am

Quoting FLALEFTY (Reply 49):
I imagine that Airbus is in the same position with the A380NEO program that Boeing was in when they debated launching the B744 variant back in the1980s. However, as we know now, the B744 turned out to be the most successful model of the 747 family.

I disagree as well. The 747 at that time was the longest range plane available, and many airlines bought it for that reason. It was also the most efficient long range plane. Without the 744 development it would have lost those crowns to the A340 and MD-11, which were being planned when Boeing decided to go with the 744. Passenger capacity, I believe, was less an issue in the 744's success than was range and efficiency. The situation that the A380 finds itself in is that it has more capacity than most carriers want, and it is matched or equaled in range and efficiency by smaller planes. Even with the NEO it will not be superior (and it seems that 8000nm range is at this point enough for just about everyone, and there are a number of airliners that can reach that.) Until there is real demand for larger airliners the A380 will struggle.
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 3:50 am

Quoting hilram (Reply 10):
1) The A380 is not feasible because so few airports can accomodate it
2) The A380 is not feasible because it is impossible to fill it
3) Even when airports CAN accomodate the A380, doesn't mean that they will
4) Even when the airlines fill the plane it is unprofitable still
5) The only reason some airlines still buy this behemoth is because they are government backed (possibly involved in a plot)

1 is partially true. There are few airports that can effectively accommodate the A380, but I think the fact they are all big airports cancels that out. 2 is not true, but it also depends on the conditions of the day. 3 is mostly false in my opinion. Every airport that can accommodate the A380 has, which is assuming the infrascuture of said airport can allow for it. 4 is untrue. A full plane is always pushing economics high. Not sure of 5. I guess that depends on the carrier.

Quoting FLALEFTY (Reply 26):
Airbus has time to play with before a A380NEO is required.

And when would an A380NEO be required? It seems like the biggest (and perhaps the only buyer) would be EK.

Quoting seahawk (Reply 6):
I still think stretching the A350 to A350-1100 is more important. Airbus can leave the 777-8 alone but it needs something that has the capacity of the 777-9, even if this plane won´t have the same range, but that might be acceptable if it wins on CASM.
Quoting rotating14 (Reply 47):
The best way for Airbus to get out of this is to say no to EK and the NEO, sit down and contemplate on if a 777-9 competitor is worth the time and money.

Seahawk and I were talking about this previously. I suppose an A350-1100 (a stretched/widened A35J) could work, albeit I'm still convinced a larger wing and perhaps more powerful engines could be warranted. However, as Seahawk pointed out, range would probably be sacrificed. It could still be an excellet TATL/North America-Asia/Asian Pacific Jet.

I also agree with Rotating. I think the prospect of Airbus doing a A388NEO and A389, without significant demand (EK doesn't count) doesn't seem economically viable, nor economically wise. In my opinion, Airbus needs to break even on the A380 if they haven't already. Why spend billions to NEO an aircraft that will only get >50-60 or so orders? I reckon an A389 would be lucky to garnish that many too.

Airbus needs to get up to date. Nobody wants quads anymore.
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UPNYGuy
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 4:48 am

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 53):
1 is partially true. There are few airports that can effectively accommodate the A380, but I think the fact they are all big airports cancels that out. 2 is not true, but it also depends on the conditions of the day. 3 is mostly false in my opinion. Every airport that can accommodate the A380 has, which is assuming the infrascuture of said airport can allow for it. 4 is untrue. A full plane is always pushing economics high. Not sure of 5. I guess that depends on the carrier.

BDL can accomodate the whalejet, but you don't see EK operating one there and deplaning on the tarmac  
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 5:56 am

Something smells about this topic generated from an Airbus press review and the almost simultaneous release of a NEO and stretch version comments.. Is this supposed to push fence sitters to take a position.. the old buy now or support a NEO, or we're shutting down.. .. We can debate the viability and competition all day long, but what is the real intent of these mixed messages?
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 6:39 am

Quoting AirFRNT (Reply 21):
Given that Airbus's stock is down 15+% because of a Airbus executive speaking candidly about The A380's woes, it's pretty major aviation news

But that's absolutely NOT why the shares slid.
They slid on the cut in profit forecast and cash position in the next 2 years or so as A330CEO production rates fall.
If nothing else, if half the idiots on these gleeful bashfests were really right about the market view of the A380, surely the shares would go UP on news of the A380's demise.
No?

Quoting Revelation (Reply 40):
Seems he's worried about 2018 and the big slide in Airbus shares mean the market is taking this seriously.

But again, the slide wasn't generated by worries about the A380 or the 2018 cash position.
It was generated by talk of a steeper drop in A330 production in 2016/2017 whilst the A320NEO, A330NEO and A350 were still drawing cash to facilitate inventory build, and a flattening of the profit forecast in that period.
So please can we desist with this kite flying.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 42):
how soon thereafter could one expect an A380neo based on similar TXWB technology? Will TXWB technology be good enough to make it worth investing the EUR 2B or so that the press is saying it will take? If it needs better tech than TXWB, how long will that take

I think we are already well "advanced" with the answers to these questions

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 53):
I think the prospect of Airbus doing a A388NEO and A389, without significant demand (EK doesn't count)

Since when has the single biggest customer not been part of the overall demand for an aircraft? For real?

Quoting kanban (Reply 55):
Something smells about this topic generated from an Airbus press review and the almost simultaneous release of a NEO and stretch version comments

Not really. I think something got lost in translation somewhere.

The CFO says "the profit position after 2018 means we'll either have to improve the product of close the line", and soon after the CEO says "we're going to improve the product".
nothing difficult or complicated about that

The only thing that smells is the gleefest that those 2 comments have been turned into, and the sleight of hand being practiced to pin the share drop on this "news"...

I'd like to say I'm surprised. But d'you know what?

Rgds
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 7:44 am

I know that we can probably discard the following article, but there was a quote in there that interested me:


"In its seven years of operation, just 318 of the A380s have been sold, compared to the 1200 Airbus predicted that airlines would require."

http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel...jumbo/story-fn6yjmoc-1227153634399


Did Airbus really predict that airlines would require 1,200 A380s? If so, how many orders do you think they were expecting? Because if 1,200 is the number, they got it very wrong at this stage and are only 1/4 of the way to that target...
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PlanesNTrains
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 8:05 am

Quoting 32andBelow (Reply 29):
Now will you explain how an airline is expected to fill 550 seats on a Tuesday morning in Feb?

It depends. If you have a route structure with seasonal variations, perhaps you just reposition it to a different route?

Quoting prebennorholm (Reply 46):
The GE-9X and RR advance are for most practical things entirely new engines, scheduled to be ready in 2020 or slightly later, and should promise a 5% efficiency advantage over the TXWB / T1000 TEN and GEnx.

Is that enough to make carriers wait for the NEO rather than order now?

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 57):
"In its seven years of operation, just 318 of the A380s have been sold, compared to the 1200 Airbus predicted that airlines would require."

http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel...jumbo/story-fn6yjmoc-1227153634399


Did Airbus really predict that airlines would require 1,200 A380s? If so, how many orders do you think they were expecting? Because if 1,200 is the number, they got it very wrong at this stage and are only 1/4 of the way to that target...

I've heard various things on this site. A common statement is that the number was for VLA's in general - including freighters - and not just the A380.

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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 8:07 am

Quoting kanban (Reply 55):
Something smells about this topic generated from an Airbus press review and the almost simultaneous release of a NEO and stretch version comments.. Is this supposed to push fence sitters to take a position.. the old buy now or support a NEO, or we're shutting down.. .. We can debate the viability and competition all day long, but what is the real intent of these mixed messages?

I read it that the CFO stated that the current situation would become untenable come 2018, and that something needed to change.. The main options were the NEO and shutting down the line, but he most likely had no idea the firestorm that even hinting about shutting the line down would cause. And while it is clear, and the CEO later stated publicly, that the preferred course was the NEO (and/or the stretch), the fact remains that unless more orders materialize they may be forced to shut the line down. The valid argument on these threads is whether or not those orders will appear, and who they will come from.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 57):


Did Airbus really predict that airlines would require 1,200 A380s? If so, how many orders do you think they were expecting? Because if 1,200 is the number, they got it very wrong at this stage and are only 1/4 of the way to that target...

Yes, they did. And they also expected to be building 50 per year by now. It is very clear that the market that they envisioned has not materialized. And it does not appear that it will for some time to come.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
travelhound
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 8:22 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 57):
Did Airbus really predict that airlines would require 1,200 A380s? If so, how many orders do you think they were expecting? Because if 1,200 is the number, they got it very wrong at this stage and are only 1/4 of the way to that target...

I wouldn't say they got it wrong. The A380 was conceived in the late 1990's and a lot has changed since than.

I think one area where Airbus got it wrong is with their relentless drive to compete with Boeing. As such, both OEMS's are pretty much obsoleting each others products as one tries to out manouver the other.

The A380 has been in service for six years and they are now saying we will need to improve it. The 777-300ER has been in service nine years and they have said we are going to improve it. Both of these aircraft represent the current benchmark in their class.

When we consider aircraft like the 767, 757, A330, 747 all had or will have an effective economic production life of about twenty years, one has to ask the question if this relentless drive to bring new product to market is sustainable.

As per the Airbus investor conference, the A330NEO, A350 and A320NEO are all set to be great aircraft. The only problem is, Airbus is projecting they are not going to be making money on these planes any time soon. When we consider they never made money on the A340-500/600 and now the A380 something will ultimately have to give!
 
RickNRoll
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 9:30 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 57):
"In its seven years of operation, just 318 of the A380s have been sold, compared to the 1200 Airbus predicted that airlines would require."

I believe that figure was over a longer period of time than seven years.
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 9:56 am

Quoting astuteman (Reply 56):
If nothing else, if half the idiots on these gleeful bashfests were really right about the market view of the A380, surely the shares would go UP on news of the A380's demise.

You are right. If the CFO was predicting the demise of a loss making model, soaking up money and expertise, the share price would be moving strongly in the opposite direction.
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 11:16 am

Quoting RickNRoll (Reply 61):
I believe that figure was over a longer period of time than seven years.

Indeed it was. It was over a 20 year period, and for all VLAs, not just the A380.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 56):
But that's absolutely NOT why the shares slid.
They slid on the cut in profit forecast and cash position in the next 2 years or so as A330CEO production rates fall.
If nothing else, if half the idiots on these gleeful bashfests were really right about the market view of the A380, surely the shares would go UP on news of the A380's demise.
No?

Yeah, that's what I was thinking too. But don't let facts and logic get in the way of a good bashfest.

Something I've been wondering ever since this topic came up: do we actually know what exactly the CFO said? Because we don't seem to have a direct quote anywhere. All we have to go on is this:

Quote:
While Airbus will break even on the plane in 2015, 2016 and 2017, that outlook doesn’t hold for 2018, forcing the company to either offer new engines to make the A380 more attractive or discontinue the program, Chief Financial Officer Harald Wilhelm told investors at a meeting in London today.

That's not a direct quote, and reeks of a reporter's interpretation of what was said, and not so much what was actually said. Every single article written on the issue also seems based on that one paragraph, from that one source.

The lack of a direct quote, and the fact that the CEO quickly felt compelled to state that there were no plans at all to dump the A380 seems to back up the idea that all this commotion is merely the result of a single reporter putting a personal spin on what he heard, or what someone told him he had heard.

[Edited 2014-12-13 03:17:42]
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 12:00 pm

Airbus and company won't wait until 2018 to launch a NEO/stretch version of the A380 as it would be too late if no other orders are garnered. So can we expect a launch within the next 6-8 months? The CFO's speaking kerfuffle may have played into the hands of EK getting momentum behind the upgrade they have been pushing for a while now.
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 12:10 pm

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 57):
"In its seven years of operation, just 318 of the A380s have been sold, compared to the 1200 Airbus predicted that airlines would require."

If I recall correctly that number was based on a 20 year time frame of operations with the A380. So there is still some 13 years to go.  
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 12:19 pm

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 64):
Something I've been wondering ever since this topic came up: do we actually know what exactly the CFO said? Because we don't seem to have a direct quote anywhere. All we have to go on is this:

From Flightglobal:

Brégier’s upbeat prognosis followed a more sombre outlook from chief financial officer Harald Wilhelm, who hinted at an outside chance of halting the programme instead of upgrading the aircraft. The A380, said Wilhelm, will break even at production level next year and, given the efforts of reducing fixed and recurring costs, will stay at break-even in 2016-2017, with “flat” earnings in 2018 keeping the programme “close to the break-even with the current product”.

He added: “If we would do something on the product, or even if we would discontinue the product, that’s what it means.”


http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...urrent-a380-remains-cloudy-407064/
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 12:21 pm

Wouldn't it make more sense to halt production say around 2021 when all current orders and follow ons are built (say 350 total production), shelve the tooling and return with the NEO with EIS around 2030; all the current 380s can then be replaced, there will be growth and markets where a 777 or A350 is good enough now might easily absorb 380NEO's by 2030, while the current A380s routes will then be replaced by NEO stretch. Plus engines and composites will have become better and more efficient in the mean time.
This way they won't have to struggle with slow sales in the next 10 years because the current A380s are not ready yet for replacement and worthless on the second hand market.
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 12:30 pm

Another thought would be that with the falling price of Oil, EK's possibly big advantage (Filling it's planes with really cheap subsidized Middle East Fuel) as a function of the cost of a ticket falls away and makes it's Future Growth Prospects (in relation to it's competitors) fall away.

Low Oil could hurt EK and maybe Airbus isn't as confident of them and there very large orders.

A NEO at low Oil prices even if does have a CASM advantage over 777X and A350 isn't as significant at higher oil prices.

Interest rates should remain quite low for some time so the Point to Point model in a low Oil price environment (assuming it does and I argue it's long term price is probably easily under $50 and probably somewhere between $20-$30) will continue to gain ground at a very fast pace.

The last time we had low Oil for a sustained period - the 1990's - when Oil was $20-30 and touched $9 in 1998 - not that long ago - during the Asian Financial Crisis, Point to Point exploded with the rise of the RJ.

This time around it could be an RJ XL explosion with Boeing's rumored 200-300 seat 4,000NM Range aircraft being a prime beneficiary, and whatever Airbus counters with along with 787/777 and A330/A350.
 
mjoelnir
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 12:54 pm

Quoting travelhound (Reply 60):

Lets look at the history of the B747 for comparison.

B747-100 176 produced before engine upgrade.
Than 29 B747-100B produced before upgrade to B747-200, again new engines.
45 747SP produced with shortened fuselage.
389 747-200 and 747-200B including the cargo and combi versions produced engine upgrade from -200 to -200B
B747-300, a stretch, new engines 81 produced.
Than it goes to the 747-400 the most successful model, stretch, new engine and winglets added. 694 produced in 6 different models including cargo and combi versions.

At least 6 times new engines, mostly engines from more that one engine producer offered, so we talk about near 20 different engines.
Two stretches and one shrink during the time, all together 16 different versions before moving to the B747-8.
The B747 staid only relevant by steady upgrades, especially engines, and many versions often only in small numbers produced.

What is strange with an engine upgrade for the A380 after 200 to 300 frames? Perhaps moving only to a single engine manufacturer for the next 150 frames. A run of 600 engines would match or surpass the number of a single engine by one manufacturer producing engines for the B747.
 
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par13del
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 12:56 pm

Quoting Scorpio (Reply 63):
Something I've been wondering ever since this topic came up: do we actually know what exactly the CFO said?

Hello, A.Net not a court of law.

Quoting Scorpio (Reply 63):
The lack of a direct quote, and the fact that the CEO quickly felt compelled to state that there were no plans at all to dump the A380 seems to back up the idea that all this commotion is merely the result of a single reporter putting a personal spin on what he heard, or what someone told him he had heard.

If one reporter has that much impact perhaps those folks who wear tin foil hats and spout conspiracy are not all wrong 

If the comments were made at an investors conference and a lead reporter got it wrong, I would like to think that reporters in the EU have integrity and they would have shot it down and not have other high profile Airbus officials step up to "clarify" what their exec said.

Quoting morrisond (Reply 68):
Another thought would be that with the falling price of Oil, EK's possibly big advantage (Filling it's planes with really cheap subsidized Middle East Fuel) as a function of the cost of a ticket falls away and makes it's Future Growth Prospects (in relation to it's competitors) fall away.

Even if we accept the filling their planes with subsidized fuel, the A380 size and the demands that creates does not go down. Regardless of price it still requires more pax, crew and fuel, however, we have had a few threads on the low price of oil getting A340's and 747's out of storage. If it is quicker to get them back in service over new build A380's the theory will be proven when we see their in-service numbers increasing.
 
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EPA001
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 1:18 pm

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 69):
Lets look at the history of the B747 for comparison.

B747-100 176 produced before engine upgrade.
Than 29 B747-100B produced before upgrade to B747-200, again new engines.
45 747SP produced with shortened fuselage.
389 747-200 and 747-200B including the cargo and combi versions produced engine upgrade from -200 to -200B
B747-300, a stretch, new engines 81 produced.
Than it goes to the 747-400 the most successful model, stretch, new engine and winglets added. 694 produced in 6 different models including cargo and combi versions.

At least 6 times new engines, mostly engines from more that one engine producer offered, so we talk about near 20 different engines.
Two stretches and one shrink during the time, all together 16 different versions before moving to the B747-8.
The B747 staid only relevant by steady upgrades, especially engines, and many versions often only in small numbers produced.

What is strange with an engine upgrade for the A380 after 200 to 300 frames? Perhaps moving only to a single engine manufacturer for the next 150 frames. A run of 600 engines would match or surpass the number of a single engine by one manufacturer producing engines for the B747.

Great posts which puts things in a better perspective imho. Although there is now more and tougher competition than in the
earlier days of the B747, there is a lot of truth in this. Time is something we so easily forget. The A380 is now flying at it's customers for 7 years. So to have an updated version in 2020 is nothing more than normal. As every airliner goes through major updates. The B777 is also no exception in this respect, far from it actually. Which is the basis of her success.
 
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par13del
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 1:32 pm

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 71):
Great posts which puts things in a better perspective imho. Although there is now more and tougher competition than in the
earlier days of the B747, there is a lot of truth in this. Time is something we so easily forget.

The time component is important, engines today take a lot longer to come to market, military versions / offshoots are no longer a given to speed development and reduce cost.
On the competition front, the market is much much different, the 747 is iconic not just because of the hump but its range further expanded air travel. The A380 entered a market where absolute range is no longer a primary requirement if it cannot be accomplished at a given speed, other a/c were available then and now with equal range, the a/c is not opening up any new routes like the 747, so its road is much tougher, its more of a how it does the route.
 
mjoelnir
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 1:59 pm

Quoting par13del (Reply 72):
The time component is important, engines today take a lot longer to come to market, military versions / offshoots are no longer a given to speed development and reduce cost.
On the competition front, the market is much much different, the 747 is iconic not just because of the hump but its range further expanded air travel. The A380 entered a market where absolute range is no longer a primary requirement if it cannot be accomplished at a given speed, other a/c were available then and now with equal range, the a/c is not opening up any new routes like the 747, so its road is much tougher, its more of a how it does the route.

So it was much easier at the time of the B747. But why was Boeing than every few years upgrading the engines, making versions special for a few or only one airline, stretching and shrinking the frame and so on?

The argument should be the other way round, hard competition leads to faster upgrades, so it is completely illogical to argument the B747 got so many upgrades because she had so little competition.

We can not compare the A380 to a smaller wide body in regards to numbers as we can not compare the smaller wide bodies to a narrow body in numbers.

The only frame it is possible to compare the A380 with is the B747 and she got new engines all the time.
 
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par13del
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 2:18 pm

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 73):
But why was Boeing than every few years upgrading the engines, making versions special for a few or only one airline, stretching and shrinking the frame and so on?

Suggest you go back and review the 747 entry into service, the initial engine was delayed so 747's sat at Boeing waiting engines, there are pictures in the A.Net database of Boeing field at the time. In addition the engine did not live up to expectations, for a more recent version see BA with the introduction of the 777 with the GE-90.
To my knowledge, the A380 engines were available at EIS and worked fine, yes there was the oil issue bit it did not ground a/c, delay a/c delivery to clients nor create a poor dispatch record.
If you think those issues did not play a major factor in the need to improve engines on the 747 fine.
However, I recall numerous threads which downplayed the issues with the RR engine on the A380 and guess what, they were correct.
So maybe, just maybe, the 747 got a lot of engine changes because Boeing did not have A.Net experts to clam the waters and save them investment dollars  
 
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speedbored
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 2:18 pm

Quoting morrisond (Reply 68):
EK's possibly big advantage (Filling it's planes with really cheap subsidized Middle East Fuel)

Do you actually have any evidence whatsoever to support this "EK get subsidized fuel" assertion? So many people have claimed this on here and yet not one person has ever been able to provide even the smallest shred of evidence.

Given that the public financial statements from EK clearly show that they are buying their fuel in the same international markets as almost every other airline, do you seriously believe that Tim Clark and his executive team are defrauding the banks and finance companies by making false statements?
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 2:29 pm

Quoting fcogafa (Reply 66):
Brégier’s upbeat prognosis followed a more sombre outlook from chief financial officer Harald Wilhelm, who hinted at an outside chance of halting the programme instead of upgrading the aircraft. The A380, said Wilhelm, will break even at production level next year and, given the efforts of reducing fixed and recurring costs, will stay at break-even in 2016-2017, with “flat” earnings in 2018 keeping the programme “close to the break-even with the current product”.

He added: “If we would do something on the product, or even if we would discontinue the product, that’s what it means.”

Thanks! If these are he exact words upon which everything is based, then that confirms what I thought: he didn't suggest Airbus was seriously considering discontinuing the A380 at all.

So these two threads, and all the commotion really were much ado about nothing.
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 2:36 pm

Quoting par13del (Reply 70):
If the comments were made at an investors conference and a lead reporter got it wrong, I would like to think that reporters in the EU have integrity and they would have shot it down and not have other high profile Airbus officials step up to "clarify" what their exec said.

Well, we appear to have the actual quote in the flightglobal article. Now tell me, does this:

Quote:
The A380, said Wilhelm, will break even at production level next year and, given the efforts of reducing fixed and recurring costs, will stay at break-even in 2016-2017, with “flat” earnings in 2018 keeping the programme “close to the break-even with the current product”.

He added: “If we would do something on the product, or even if we would discontinue the product, that’s what it means.”

...still read the same to you as this:

Quote:
While Airbus will break even on the plane in 2015, 2016 and 2017, that outlook doesn’t hold for 2018, forcing the company to either offer new engines to make the A380 more attractive or discontinue the program, Chief Financial Officer Harald Wilhelm told investors at a meeting in London today.

???

Because to me it clearly doesn't: his actual words were twisted to mean something quite different.
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 3:01 pm

Quoting par13del (Reply 74):
Suggest you go back and review the 747 entry into service, the initial engine was delayed so 747's sat at Boeing waiting engines, there are pictures in the A.Net database of Boeing field at the time.

What has that to do with the first engine change after 167 frames? Perhaps it rather explains the move to three engine manufacturers for the next batch of engines.
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 3:09 pm

Quoting prebennorholm (Reply 46):
I wouldn't be the slightest surprised to learn that Airbus is already working on a common engine (T7000) installation on A330neo and A380neo. Including mostly identical nacelles. That would make economic sence.

And I don't believe in any €2B Investment to hang a slightly newer Trent engine version on the A380. They may take the opportunity to make a few other updates, but nothing like what they are doing on the A320neo and A330neo.

My thought is the most likely outcome is what you are suggesting, a minimal cost upgrade similar to the path taken for A330neo. It minimizes risk and fills gaps in the production line sooner. It minimizes cost and maximizes the 'halo' value of the product. Others seem to be convinced a more advanced (sic) solution is required.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 56):
But again, the slide wasn't generated by worries about the A380 or the 2018 cash position.
It was generated by talk of a steeper drop in A330 production in 2016/2017 whilst the A320NEO, A330NEO and A350 were still drawing cash to facilitate inventory build, and a flattening of the profit forecast in that period.
So please can we desist with this kite flying.

The agency your tax dollars support must also be a fan of kite flying:

BBC: Airbus shares fall over A380 threat
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 3:37 pm

Sharklets + T7000s + 11 abreast should give some good improvement numbers
 
ikramerica
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 4:02 pm

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 69):
B747-100 176 produced before engine upgrade.
Than 29 B747-100B produced before upgrade to B747-200, again new engines.
45 747SP produced with shortened fuselage.
389 747-200 and 747-200B including the cargo and combi versions produced engine upgrade from -200 to -200B
B747-300, a stretch, new engines 81 produced.
Than it goes to the 747-400 the most successful model, stretch, new engine and winglets added. 694 produced in 6 different models including cargo and combi versions.

That is a wildly inaccurate history of the progression of the 747. Your numbers are wrong, your models are not sequential, the changes in the engines are not accurate and increased fuel capacity is completely ignored, the 747 was never stretched at all up to the 748 other than the SUD, which was available on the -200 and -100SR as retrofit as well, there is no 747-200 at all to "upgrade" engines on to a 200B, etc.

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 71):
Great posts which puts things in a better perspective imho. Although there is now more and tougher competition than in the

Why is it a great post if it's wrong?
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 4:23 pm

Quoting Scorpio (Reply 77):
Because to me it clearly doesn't: his actual words were twisted to mean something quite different.

If some of the "negative" reaction is by the investors who heard what he said first hand then perhaps it is more than the media and him actually phrasing his words in a way that led to the mis-understanding, in which case the speculation that some have stated that the message was lost in translation will be more appropriate.

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 78):
What has that to do with the first engine change after 167 frames? Perhaps it rather explains the move to three engine manufacturers for the next batch of engines.

It means that the initial engine offered on the 747 was a "failure" and had to be changed as soon as possible.
How about the old reliable A.Net for some info on the first engine offered on the 747, perhaps we can find some similarities to the current two engine choices on the A380 which are driving the need for an engine upgrade?
 
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par13del
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 4:25 pm

Apologies, I neglected to include the link
JT9D's Weaknesses (by Speedbird002 May 8 2001 in Tech Ops)
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 4:37 pm

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 81):
Why is it a great post if it's wrong?

Well, the image painted by the post is still correct, no matter if the fine details might not have been. The B747 went through many modifications and partial redesigns to keep it competitive in the marketplace. Same as we have seen on the B777 or the A330 or so many other airliners. And so the A380 will undergo the same further developments to stay competitive in the marketplace. That was perfectly good readable out of that post.
 
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 4:51 pm

Quoting par13del (Reply 82):
It means that the initial engine offered on the 747 was a "failure" and had to be changed as soon as possible. How about the old reliable A.Net for some info on the first engine offered on the 747, perhaps we can find some similarities to the current two engine choices on the A380 which are driving the need for an engine upgrade?

I do not believe there is anything inherently wrong with either the Trent 900 or the GP7200 - other than needing four of them.  

Seriously, lightsaber has noted that the GP7200 is a bit of a compromised design in that certain components would have been better if they'd been made by the "other guy" (GE instead of Pratt and vice-versa), but that each company wanted to keep ownership of said part.

He had noted that adding a contra-rotating fan would offer a not-insignificant SFC reduction.
 
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par13del
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 5:17 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 85):
Seriously, lightsaber has noted that the GP7200 is a bit of a compromised design in that certain components would have been better if they'd been made by the "other guy" (GE instead of Pratt and vice-versa), but that each company wanted to keep ownership of said part.

I've read them in earlier threads especially those where new A380 engines were being discussed, but to mjoenlir's point that the comparison must be made with the 747 I don't see any, neither of those engines are / were late or causing flights to be grounded, delayed, etc. etc. etc.
If an engine upgrade is needed for the A380 it won't be because the current engines are problematic like the JT9D was on the 747-100, indeed no new versions or serious updates were pushed in the 7 years since EIS, including on the RR engines, other than an initial immediate inspection after the QF incident.

If only A.Net existed back in the early 70's, the threads with the PW supporters of their engine could then be compared to those of the current A380 RR and Engine Alliance supporters, would be fun reading  
 
OldAeroGuy
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 5:24 pm

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 65):
Quoting 777Jet (Reply 57):"In its seven years of operation, just 318 of the A380s have been sold, compared to the 1200 Airbus predicted that airlines would require."If I recall correctly that number was based on a 20 year time frame of operations with the A380. So there is still some 13 years to go.

But the first A380 orders were placed in 2001, so that's only 7 years to go. If Airbus expected the A380 to capture half the VLA market over a 20 year time frame, its come up a bit short. Meanwhile other airframes have filled the void.

A340-600: 97
A350-1000: 169
777-300ER: 758
777X: 286
747-8I&F: 119
Total: 1429

Adding the A380
A380: 318
Revised Total: 1747

A380 Market Share: 18.2%

These numbers suggest that Airbus was a bit low on the market forecast but they badly missed the market locus and the A380 market share.

Perhaps they were right on the number of seats at 600,000 (1200 frames X 500 seats per frame).

Based on current orders, that would mean about 357 seats per frame (excluding the 747-8F), not far from the current locus

[Edited 2014-12-13 09:39:21]
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PW100
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 5:28 pm

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 44):
With engine power increasing, . . .

Apparently you have not been paying attention. The 77X will have less power than the 77W. 115000 lbs of thrust has been commercially available since 2003. None of the current twins, and none for the foreseeable future will have more power than the 77W.

Quoting 777stl (Reply 45):
The irony is that EK would likely destroy any market there is for new build A380s when they start casting off their gently used CEO models into the desert.
Why buy a new one when you can get a screaming deal on a quality used one?

Why would EK be buying so many new ones, if they can get a screaming deal on one of their own 100+ quality used ones ? The irony is that If EK would not buy new ones, the market would likely not be destroyed by "can get a screaming deal on a quality used one"? If it's financially more attractive for EK to buy new ones, that would also apply to others.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 57):
Did Airbus really predict that airlines would require 1,200 A380s

Airbus predicted that over a 20 year period there would be a market for 1200 VLA (=400+ seats, not sure if that included freighters with similar equivalent capacity), and they were targeting to get 50% of that market with the A380. So no, they were not saying that airlines would require 1,200 A380s.
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
astuteman
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 5:33 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 79):
The agency your tax dollars support must also be a fan of kite flying:

Usually.

Do you want to hang your counter-argument on that, or what the investment community actually said?

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/airbus-says-first-delivery-a350-133514469.html

Quote:
Airbus shares slid 10.4 percent on Wednesday, their worst drubbing in more than six years, after the planemaker predicted flat profits in 2016, surprising investors who had expected new and recently upgraded models to start boosting results that year


Can we move on now?

Rgds
 
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7BOEING7
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 6:23 pm

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 73):
So it was much easier at the time of the B747. But why was Boeing than every few years upgrading the engines, making versions special for a few or only one airline, stretching and shrinking the frame and so on?

The argument should be the other way round, hard competition leads to faster upgrades, so it is completely illogical to argument the B747 got so many upgrades because she had so little competition

The competition wasn't from other airframes it was between the engine manufacturers trying to one up each other on what was becoming a cash cow. In sales campaigns you had three engine manufactures trying to lure customers with more economic/reliable engines.

In the case of the A380 you do have two engine manufacturers but the majority of the airplanes ordered to date had their engines set in stone prior to the airplane entering service. An since entry into service there have only been 17 orders if you disregard EK (who probably won't switch engines) and Hong Kong ("Unidentified")/Amedeo (which probably won't happen) -- not much to compete over.
 
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Revelation
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 6:32 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 89):
Do you want to hang your counter-argument on that, or what the investment community actually said?

The article you chose to link says:

Quote:

Meanwhile Airbus remained in sombre mood on the poor-selling A380, the world's largest airliner.

For over a year, it has been studying three strategic options, first reported by Reuters: cut production, invest in an upgrade or stop trying to sell more A380s and merely produce what it has already sold.

Enders said Airbus would take a decision "purely on economic terms" in the near to mid-term. Finance Director Harald Wilhelm said the project would break even in 2015 and stay in balance through 2018, whether it decided to improve or discontinue it.

Which is being reflected by others such as the BBC as:

Quote:

Shares in French aviation firm Airbus fell as much as 4.5% on Thursday after it said it might halt production of its A380 superjumbo in 2018.

So if you want to argue you should take it up with the BBC.

And you should also tell Tim Clark to call Airbus to wish them season's greetings instead of complaining about the future of the A380, since there's nothing to be upset about.

Quote:

The announcement prompted a furious reaction from the head of Dubai's Emirates airline, who said it was prepared to invest heavily in buying more of the aircraft.

Tim Clark, president of Emirates, said he had protested to Airbus.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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astuteman
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 10:02 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 91):
The article you chose to link says

Nice to see that we're actually in agreement then  
Quoting Revelation (Reply 91):
And you should also tell Tim Clark to call Airbus to wish them season's greetings instead of complaining about the future of the A380, since there's nothing to be upset about.

Not sure what that's got to do with what caused Airbus shares to fall. No matter.

As I said before, if the market really did react with such negativity just because of a (mis-represented) comment by the CFO, then investors much place great store in the future profitability of the A380.

no one would be happier than me if you were actually right  

Rgds
 
mjoelnir
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 10:46 pm

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 81):
That is a wildly inaccurate history of the progression of the 747. Your numbers are wrong, your models are not sequential, the changes in the engines are not accurate and increased fuel capacity is completely ignored, the 747 was never stretched at all up to the 748 other than the SUD, which was available on the -200 and -100SR as retrofit as well, there is no 747-200 at all to "upgrade" engines on to a 200B, etc

OK I have written without consulting everything.

Lets start with the engines

B747-100 used the Pratt & Whitney JT9D-3A for 167 units
The B747-100B used the PW JT9D-7, RR RB211-524B2 for 9 units
The B747 SR used the GE CF6-45A2 for 29 units
The B747-200 used the PW JT9D-7R4G2, GE CF6-50E2 or the RR RB211-524D4 for 389 units
The B747-300 used the PW JT9D-7R4G2 (no change), GE CF6-80C2B1 (new engine), RR RB211-524D4 (no change)
The B747-400 uses the PW 4062, GE CF6-80C2B5F, RR RB211-524H
The B747SP used the PW JT9D-7R4W or RR RB211-524C2
The B747-8 uses the GEnx

OK that are only 14 different engines. My main point is that here are people moaning about how an engine change on the A380 would be a terrible sign of the A380 not making it, or terrible expensive or far to early.

Regarding stretch I call a stretch of the upper deck a stretch.

I did not mention increased payload or bigger tanks, for example B747-100 to B, but that shows only still more changes done to keep the B747 relevant.

The only single version of the B747 having sold more than the A380-800 is the B747-400 with 442 frames all other versions have sold less than 225 frames or less.
 
travelhound
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 11:24 pm

Quoting PW100 (Reply 88):
Why would EK be buying so many new ones, if they can get a screaming deal on one of their own 100+ quality used ones ? The irony is that If EK would not buy new ones, the market would likely not be destroyed by "can get a screaming deal on a quality used one"? If it's financially more attractive for EK to buy new ones, that would also apply to others.
EK are a first tier carrier and it would take a good sum of money and time to upgrade 12 year old A380's to the latest product specification.

Another scenario could be there is economic sense in retiring 12 year old A380's to the desert and using them as a parts bin to keep the other one hundred and forty or so aircraft flying.

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 73):
The argument should be the other way round, hard competition leads to faster upgrades, so it is completely illogical to argument the B747 got so many upgrades because she had so little competition.

I suppose we should look at the business case for hard competition and faster upgrades. If we consider the current version A380 is just about to enter into a break even financial situation and at this stage Airbus are projecting financial headwinds form 2018 onwards, I'd suggest there could be a whole lot of wishing (since it is Christmas) for a little less competition and a little less need to develop very expensive upgrades.

Boeing probably had similar thoughts with the early 747's, never mention the 787!!  Wow!

[Edited 2014-12-13 15:31:10]
 
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7BOEING7
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 11:43 pm

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 93):
OK that are only 14 different engines. My main point is that here are people moaning about how an engine change on the A380 would be a terrible sign of the A380 not making it, or terrible expensive or far to early.

Personally I don't see it as a "terrible sign of the A380 not making it" and I don't think that's most people's position that are "moaning". If there were enough customers asking for a new engine great -- maybe 140 frames from EK is enough to justify the expense. The main concern from several "moaners" is on average the program will continue to lose $$$ between 2015 and 2020 (when the engine would be available) and then would be saddled with the certification/development expenses related to the engine depending on how much the engine manufacturer picks up.

Boeing had customers knocking on the door requesting these modifications and Boeing priced them accordingly making lots of $$$ along the way -- Airbus has one who'll continue buying the airplane whether or not it gets new engines IMHO.

This is not longer a Field of Dreams -- "If you build it they will come" era.
 
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kanban
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sat Dec 13, 2014 11:52 pm

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 93):

There is a completely different aspect that affected early 747 sales and models.. The airlines back then bought a few at a time and only added to the fleets when there was sufficient reason.. none of these 25-100 or more sales betting there will be a market that we see today.. The early 747 customers weren't sure they could fill the plane and make it profitable so they were very conservative in purchasing..

I recall when the plant paging system would interrupt the work day to announce a sale of 2 planes.

Yes you are correct that there were many models and engines, there were many more customers, but applying today's sales trends to the 1960-80 time frame is stretching it. It's one thing to look at Wikipedia and draw conclusions based on today's environment, it's another to understand the history beneath the numbers.

As far as an A380 engine upgrade.. if it is interchangeable at attach points and utilizes minimal software revisions, the costs are manageable, if a new strut is required, now you have cost. Further, certification during the early 747-100 to --300 was less rigorous than today's certification.. and if I remember correctly in the engine battles for dominance, the engine manufacturers were picking up much of the cost.

But all this is neither her nor there.. we have somme expressed opinions from Airbus that look contradictory, but may just be positioning.
 
XT6Wagon
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sun Dec 14, 2014 3:18 am

Quoting kanban (Reply 96):
Yes you are correct that there were many models and engines, there were many more customers, but applying today's sales trends to the 1960-80 time frame is stretching it. It's one thing to look at Wikipedia and draw conclusions based on today's environment, it's another to understand the history beneath the numbers.

The 747 also launched the high bypass engine into the commercial market... perhaps years before it was really ready. The rapid updates, upgrades, and switch to the -200 on the 747 was largely due to the fact that the engines the 747-100 launched with were a barely workable mess.

Today, I dare you to say that about the A380 engines. While we are in a time of rapid advancement in technology, It is all working for better fuel burn, with only rare cases of unreliablity or high service costs being a thing in the WHOLE INDUSTRY. So it it better to throw a billion $$$ at a plane to hang even more expensive per unit engines for the difference in fuel burn over 12-20 years?

So far the market has said absolutely not unless you are feeding a viable plane into a huge market. The A330NEO alone wouldn't exist if Airbus didn't invest in some pretty impressive upgrades to the rest of the plane over the last few years. A 2005 A330 with the new engines would absolutely be a terrible buy compared to the current A330NEO or 787. A320NEO piggybacked off the A320NG program that already paid for most of the advancements over current A320.

I don't believe that even the 777x would work without Boeing having already looked for places to pull millions in fabrication costs out, and other small upgrades. If it was only a re-engine, the airlines would order few to none. More would likely be ordered if it was an "upgrade" to the existing engine and certified as such.
 
sv11
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sun Dec 14, 2014 3:38 am

Can't Airbus use the engines offered on the Boeing 787-9 and do a minimum re-engine. Both the A380 and 787-9 appears to be using around 70K pound thrust engines

Regards,
sv11
 
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Finn350
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RE: Airbus Considers Ending A380 Production - Part 2

Sun Dec 14, 2014 4:08 am

Re-engining A380 is costly, as the wing requires modifications due to heavier engines. From the Bloomberg article quoted in the very first post of the first thread:

Quote:
“Airbus will be obliged to make a decision one way or the other in 2015,” said Yan Derocles, an analyst at Oddo Securities in Paris, who estimates an engine upgrade may cost Airbus 2 billion euros ($2.47 billion) because of work required on the wing.

Based on an earlier Aviation Week article, A330neo and A380neo can't use the same engine, or at least that is not optimal:

Quote:
Williams does not see a common new engine for the A330 and A380 as the optimal solution. Concerns include the sizing of the core and overall architecture, as well as weight. “It really does not make much sense,” he believes.

Source: http://aviationweek.com/commercial-a...s-pw-a330neo-a380-reengining-plans

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