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MSJYOP28Apilot
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More DL Cuts In MEM

Sat Dec 13, 2014 10:23 am

Delta is going to be cutting its nonstops from MEM to ORD/RDU/IND with MCO dropping to once per week. This will leave them with daily service to ATL, MSP, DTW, CVG, LGA, LAX. Seasonal nonstops to LAS/SLC/CUN remain.

With these cuts, Delta will need even fewer gates. Personally I think the MEM airport authority should have temporarily consolidated on A and C while building a smaller new concourse where B is today. Even with consolidation of all airlines in the B concourse it will still have a ton of unused gates in B that will never be used in the foreseeable future.
 
DLX737200
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sat Dec 13, 2014 12:55 pm

What gates are Delta using now in B?
 
commavia
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sat Dec 13, 2014 1:22 pm

Here's the article: http://www.commercialappeal.com/business/local/delta-plans-more-cuts-for-memphis_11518341

Well there we have it - if true, then the closure of the MEM hub is pretty much complete - the culmination of a merger and the radical network rationalization it spurred, and the end of an era that stretches back literally decades.

While sad for the local community, it was inevitable that, in the context of a vastly larger network with another, vastly larger, hub only a few hundred miles away, MEM was not going to retain a network airline hub long-term. With this move, Delta will be down to essentially just its hubs/major O&D centers with a few (apparently low-frequency, and/or seasonal) O&D routes remaining.

I don't expect any competitor to backfill IND or RDU - both seemed like small, tailored "narrow" markets - but I wouldn't be surprised if by next summer, both AA and United have upgraded more, if not all, all of their daily round-trips (currently five each) to 2-class RJs.
 
brilondon
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sat Dec 13, 2014 1:38 pm

Like at the merger they did not know this would happen? Are the regulators that daft? An airport that is less than 2 hours flying from DL's largest surviving this long is more news worthy than anything else.

Was MEM a major hub for NW? Did they do a lot of international flying form it? Where does MEM's O/D numbers fit in on DL's list? I equate this to CVG. CVG is just too close to DTW to be considered a major hub for DL although DL does consider CVG a Hub still.
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MIflyer12
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sat Dec 13, 2014 1:56 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 2):
I wouldn't be surprised if by next summer, both AA and United have upgraded more, if not all, all of their daily round-trips (currently five each) to 2-class RJs.

That may prove true but it will be hard to isolate the effect: DL's drawdown from MEM or the actions by DL/AA/UA all to increase gauge generally as they dump 50-seaters and smaller.
 
dispatchguy
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sat Dec 13, 2014 2:01 pm

I just looked and my booked for March nonstop MEM-DCA is still on, of course its actually a DCI carrier bothways...
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chrisinbrasil
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sat Dec 13, 2014 2:15 pm

I am a frequent traveler and former Memphian. I think it's been a great ride for Memphis to have been hub status now for several decades. I recall Southern Airways and Delta Air Lines being the dominant carriers back in the 70s and early 80s. When Southern merged with North Central becoming Republic, the new airline made Memphis their southern hub. Delta backed down. And then Northwest bought Republic and increased flights even more. Time has a way of bringing things full circle.

In the back of my mind, Memphis has been holding its breath all this time. Wasn't there rumor of Northwest moving their Memphis hub to Atlanta at one point? United had a mini-hub in the city in the 80s.

Sad to see but the city as a whole is reinventing itself including the airport. Memphis is sadly another victim of changing times and economic messes. What I don't like about any of this is the fact that Delta told Memphis this was about multiplication and not subtraction. I think everyone knew the writing was on the wall.

Just between AA and UA, there are 10 flights to Chicago already.

Memphis will bounce back and celebrate new carriers, lower airfares and move on.
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spinkid
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sat Dec 13, 2014 4:55 pm

Hard to believe they can't offer daily non stops to MCO and only seasonal to LAS. I'd imagine we'll see Allegiant, Frontier and possibly even Spirit filling some of these routes.
 
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knope2001
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sat Dec 13, 2014 6:15 pm

Well, this is essentially the last of the recurring Delta Cutting Memphis threads because there's nothing left.

Quoting brilondon (Reply 3):
Was MEM a major hub for NW? Did they do a lot of international flying form it? Where does MEM's O/D numbers fit in on DL's list? I equate this to CVG. CVG is just too close to DTW to be considered a major hub for DL although DL does consider CVG a Hub still.

Memphis did have an Amsterdam flight in the peak of the NW/KL relationship, plus a few Mexican sun markets. But Memphis was (at peak) a medium-domestic hub. During the late 80's it peaked for NW at about 300 daily flights to 90 cities, with more than 200 of those flights being mainline. In the RJ era Memphis definitely saw mainline departures drop, but even well into the 00's there were 100+ mainline flights.

A key problem for Memphis is that the local market just isn't very large, and connecting traffic is tough to make money on. There are always complicating factors in a hubs profitability, such as the fare strength of the local market, the quality of connections, the strategic importance or redundancy of a hub to the main airline, etc. But Memphis just doesn't have a very large local market compared to competing hubs.

I've been working with some Q3 2013 numbers recently and pulled some stats together from the DoT quarterly stats. This is the total average daily passengers in domestic markets with 10 or more passengers (both ways combined) for that quarter.

These are not a perfect measure of the local demand, so take them with a grain of salt. There's no international flying, there's no account of passengers in markets with fewer than 10/day passengers, there's no way to account for what bleeds to adjacent airports, etc. So do take these with a grain of salt. But Memphis local numbers are far, far below what every other hub has. And well below what many dehubbed cities enplane as well.

66451 ….. ord
62271 ….. den
59093 ….. dfw
57329 ….. atl
36902 ….. msp
31720 ….. dtw
29641 ….. mdw
29250 ….. iah
24332 ….. clt
22739 ….. slc
22230 ….. stl
20631 ….. mci
20499 ….. aus
18823 ….. bna
18218 ….. rdu
18121 ….. msy
17876 ….. hou
15881 ….. pit
15518 ….. sat
14725 ….. mke
14608 ….. ind
14363 ….. dal
12885 ….. cmh
12774 ….. cle
12397 ….. buf
11641 ….. bdl
10524 ….. abq
10507 ….. jax
8661 ….. oma
8273 ….. cvg
8148 ….. okc
7543 ….. orf
7037 ….. chs
6880 ….. sdf
6847 ….. ric
6671 ….. mem
6030 ….. bhm
5929 ….. elp
5892 ….. tul
5512 ….. day
4554 ….. dsm
4443 ….. syr
4335 ….. grr
4005 ….. cak
3207 ….. gso

Part of the trade off to having a hub is (often) high fares, so a few years from now with more LCC service MEM might show somewhat better numbers. But it is just not a very large market.
 
bjorn14
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sat Dec 13, 2014 6:37 pm

Quoting spinkid (Reply 7):
only seasonal to LAS.

There is something called Tunica less than 30 mins from some parts of Memphis.

It is sad with the draw down as a former student in Memphis. Not even FX could save the IND route.

 tombstone  MEM Hub

[Edited 2014-12-13 10:40:24]
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spinkid
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sat Dec 13, 2014 7:13 pm

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 9):
There is something called Tunica less than 30 mins from some parts of Memphis.

I forgot about Tunica, and I've even been there. It offers gambling, but Vegas is much more of a destination. I would think Memphis could support at least 3X weekly to LAS, especially when you see some of the other cities that Allegiant is able to connect to LAS.
 
topbanana
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sat Dec 13, 2014 8:11 pm

Quoting brilondon (Reply 3):
Was MEM a major hub for NW?

This chart gives you an idea of the hub's size over a good number of years:

http://www.departedflights.com/NWMEMhub.html
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KarlB737
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sat Dec 13, 2014 8:13 pm

Quoting MSJYOP28Apilot (Thread starter):
it will still have a ton of unused gates in B that will never be used in the foreseeable future

When one airline moves out then often someone else moves in. Frontier, Allegiant, Spirit could be suggested but I'll leave it up to the rest of the forum to suggest who would be most likely to slide in.
 
B757capt
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sat Dec 13, 2014 8:29 pm

It surprises me that ORD remained for so long out of MEM.

Hell i can remember 727s from ORD-MEM and Dc9s from MDW-MEM.
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LAX772LR
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sat Dec 13, 2014 8:35 pm

Quoting brilondon (Reply 3):
Like at the merger they did not know this would happen? Are the regulators that daft? An airport that is less than 2 hours flying from DL's largest surviving this long is more news worthy than anything else.

MEM is a metropolitan area with barely 1.3million people.
Heck, there suburbs bigger than that, in the LA Basin and Greater New York areas.  

Yes MEM is home to three Fortune500s (Autozone, Int'l Paper, and of course FedEx), but that's apparently not enough to make up for its piddling O&D.

It doesn't help that BNA is right next door....... with a 25% larger metro population, thrice as many Fortune500s, an immensely stronger tourism base, and a hub-in-everything-but-name by WN.

I doubt even a stand-alone NW would've been able to make MEM function in today's economy, at least in anywhere near its 2000s capacity, which was based on the 50seater. The merger just fast-forwarded what would've likely been its eventual demise.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
WaywardMemphian
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sat Dec 13, 2014 10:06 pm

Memphis O&D numbers were piddling because of the insane costs of flying out of there as a local. Memphis isn't a rich city, it's a working class city. Apparently those have been increasing since Southwest and Frontier moved in.It's shown in WN cutting in LR which many locals drove 2hrs to fly. I am not shocked at Delta cutting it's daily non stop to MCO. I saw that happening when WN announced it was adding second daily on seasonal basis to go along with the yearly daily. I'll give an example. I booked a trip to Orlando three months ago for Feb. Southwest out of MEM cost me 820 bucks R/T, the Delta flight on the same days would have ran 1,200 bucks. That was cheaper than before WN but still too high. I don't fly a whole lot so miles and such didn't play into the equation. I could have flown out of XNA, my home. But my mother takes care of the dogs while we go on more than a weekend trip. Allegiant up here flies Thurs and Sun. for (including baggage fees) around 650 dollars but it really limits your length of stay options and it would have cost more to stay longer than we wanted to plus dog boarding costs. So, now Memphis was a viable option when It never was in the past, even when Delta flew to Mem from XNA. Some of us with families abhor changing planes at mega hubs.

I scoff at the tourism thing, Memphis has as much to offer for a weekend as Nashville if not more. That's a marketing failure. Memphis could do some thing that could really make it appealing as a weekend getaway and hope they do it. Tunica will not be a tourism draw in the near future. It's closing casinos. The projects that were to elevate Tunica got wiped out by the Great Recession. In the meantime, smaller, resort style casinos have popped up everywhere, There's nearly a half dozen along the eastern OK border that was once just bingo halls. Casinos are regional in nature now. Arkansas allowed electronic gaming at it's two tracks and that's also killed Tunica numbers. Now Tunica is has nothing to draw in folks outside of the immediate area.

I hope oil never crosses 80 again and upstarts see Memphis as a home base the same way it's seen as ideal for the distribution of goods. Ask Disney, Nike, Williams Sonoma and now Target. I could see some airline seeing the benefit of a St. Louis to Memphis to New Orleans bunny hop route for weekend getaways.

Read where Memphis hired an AA route planner to work with the airport for finding new routes this weekend. It's funny about that oil thing, I've been told by a guy we do business with in Tulsa in the oil business that 70 a barrel and 1.99 gas was profitable for everyone and he's been saying it since the first run up under Bush. That was even profitable for Venezuela back then. He maintains that today. Oil helped trigger the first recession and as a result of rising costs of travel, goods and services, set off the housing bomb.

I wanted to share this, My first flight was a Delta flight from Memphis to Orlando in 81 as a little kid. I remember changing planes at Atlanta and remember that we didn't have the sky bridge to do it with like we had at Memphis and Orlando. I still have the little gold Delta Wings pin they gave me. I flew Delta lots back then. Delta is about dead to me after what they have done to Memphis. Not very rational but that's how I feel and more and more Memphians feel the same way in a city that once had enormous brand goodwill for them. My Brother flies weekly for business, lots of Midwest and West Coast, but often to Allanta on Delta. He now hates flying with them and mentions that he's going to try Southern Airways Express new Atlanta service. His words, no TSA man. He now flies his family WN to Tampa for his two weeks at Longboat each summer instead of once driving due to the fares out of Memphis before their arrival.
 
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knope2001
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sat Dec 13, 2014 10:19 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 14):
MEM is a metropolitan area with barely 1.3million people.
Heck, there suburbs bigger than that, in the LA Basin and Greater New York areas.

Yes MEM is home to three Fortune500s (Autozone, Int'l Paper, and of course FedEx), but that's apparently not enough to make up for its piddling O&D.

Population is always a rather lukewarm metric for predicting air travel demand, but Memphis doesn't get a lot of bang-for-the-buck in this measure either.

There are quite a few reasons why population is an iffy predictor, including these factors:

--Magnitude and travel propensity of business in the airport's hinterland
--Geographic isolation (which promotes flying) versus non-isolation (which promotes driving or train travel)
--Relative wealth/poverty of the population
--Standard population measures not accurately reflecting population of true airport service area (nearly impossible to do fairly/accurately)
--Competition (or lack of competition) from nearby airports not in the official metro area
--Inbound tourism travel by air

So it's important to not just use these numbers and judge "good" vs. "bad" or "vital" vs. "stagnating", etc. But when one does take a look at the lukewarm link between population and air passengers, Memphis is near the bottom once again.

These are those same Q2 2013 average daily domestic passengers per day (markets >10/day) listed above, bumped up against the official metro population estimates for 2013 (CMSA when they exist, else MSA). This is passengers per 1000 residents. Where multi-airport metros exist in this list I combined them (Chicago = ORD+MDW).

19.0 ….. Denver
12.3 ….. New Orleans
11.2 ….. Austin
10.2 ….. Buffalo
10.2 ….. Dallas/Fort Worth
10.0 ….. Nashville
9.8 ….. Charlotte
9.7 ….. Minneapolis/St. Paul
9.7 ….. Chicago
9.5 ….. Salt Lake City
9.3 ….. Atlanta
9.3 ….. Omaha
9.0 ….. Albuquerque
8.9 ….. Raleigh/Durham
8.6 ….. Kansas City
7.6 ….. St. Louis
7.6 ….. Charleston SC
7.2 ….. Milwaukee
7.2 ….. Houston
6.9 ….. San Antonio
6.9 ….. Jacksonville
6.3 ….. Detroit
6.3 ….. Indianapolis
6.0 ….. Des Moines
6.0 ….. Syracuse
5.9 ….. Pittsburgh
5.9 ….. Oklahoma City
5.7 ….. El Paso
5.6 ….. Richmond
5.6 ….. Columbus
5.3 ….. Hartford/Springfield
5.2 ….. Tulsa
5.1 ….. Dayton
4.9 ….. Memphis
4.8 ….. Norfolk/VA Beach
4.8 ….. Cleveland/Akron
4.6 ….. Louisville
4.6 ….. Birmingham
3.8 ….. Cincinnati
3.1 ….. Grand Rapids
2.0 ….. Greensboro/Winston-Salem

Again, this doesn't necessarily mean Memphis is bad, or stagnant, etc. But it doesn't benefit from a lot of flying tourism (like New Orleans does). It isn't especially geographically isolated (like Salt Lake is). It isn't surrounded by a lot of population outside its official metro area which uses Memphis (like Buffalo benefits from). Memphis also is a relatively poor metro area. I can't speak for the business demand and propensity for air travel, but overall Memphis seems to punch below its weight in air travel versus population.
 
michman
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sat Dec 13, 2014 10:30 pm

Quoting WaywardMemphian (Reply 16):
two weeks at Longboat each summer

I took my family to Longboat Key one summer. Most idiotic thing I ever did.  
 
WaywardMemphian
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sat Dec 13, 2014 10:54 pm

Quoting michman (Reply 18):
Quoting michman (Reply 18):

He married into a family with a Condo, they love it though they do side trips to Orlando for a night or two

Memphis is one of those towns that falls into the drive or fly cost equation. It's a half day or less to Dallas, NO, St. Louis, Atlanta, Nashville and not too far to the Redneck Riviera. Flying to those places from Memphis was ridiculous when compared to driving cost and the time saved couldn't be rationally explained especially without low cost carrier options really until last year. I look at those number as worthless because it's based on Memphis as a medium sized hub as opposed to an O&D airport. There's a new reality and the past isn't much help to scope that reality out. I didn't get the Frontier flights to Dallas at 6x a week. Dallas is a weekend get away location and the prices were attractive to make it tempting to ditch the drive and fly and rent a car for the weekend for the extra time gained. Fri, Sun and Wed made more sense in my book.

I'm sitting back waiting for Allegiant to move in, it seems like an absolute no brainer knowing what I know about Memphis. A little hidden gem in Memphis is the Amtrack route to New Orleans. We used it to travel back and forth from Memphis to the Sugar Bowl a few years back. It wasn't bad and cheaper than flying.
 
RJNUT
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sun Dec 14, 2014 12:43 am

..hey..no problem here in MCI. we now have one stop /no change of plane service to MEM on Seaport on a Cessna Caravan with only a brief touchdown in Harrison , AR. I am good with it!!!
 
usflyer msp
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sun Dec 14, 2014 1:01 am

Many of the frequent fliers in MEM have switched to AA & UA due DL general lack of westbound flight options from MEM
 
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compensateme
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sun Dec 14, 2014 2:24 am

Quoting WaywardMemphian (Reply 16):
Memphis O&D numbers were piddling because of the insane costs of flying out of there as a local. Memphis isn't a rich city, it's a working class city.

MEM was never a natural choice to be a large hub but enjoyed success due to its ability to link to the deep south. MEM became expendable in the early 2000s when regional jets were able to link the deep south to large, more distant hubs but continued to enjoy hub status due to NW's investment, NW's need to leverage itself outside the Midwest & cheap costs due to FedEx. Industry consolidation made MEM further expendable.

Don't be fooled into thinking MEM is something it never was, just because of the large hub it once possessed. MEM airport officials should've moved on and planned a new, smaller, 20-gate terminal. Such project could've been done for about $400M, and MEM's already committed to about half that amount in the incumbent terminal... factor in future maintenance & utility savings, it would've paid for itself in the future while providing a better experience to locals.
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ipodguy7
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sun Dec 14, 2014 2:30 am

Quoting WaywardMemphian (Reply 16):
I scoff at the tourism thing, Memphis has as much to offer for a weekend as Nashville if not more. That's a marketing failure. Memphis could do some thing that could really make it appealing as a weekend getaway and hope they do it.

If you're idea of a perfect weekend includes a high murder/drug crime rate (Memphis is the #4 Most Dangerous City in the Nation ), some ok bar-b-que, and kickass blues then Memphis is for you! It's no surpise Nashville is a better city for 1) living in, 2) visiting, 3) doing business in. Music capital of the US (no not just country music, great blues, great rock, and great other styles too (Jack White, Black Keys, Kings of Leon, etc). Plus, it's probably the nicest city in the South, with brand new 5* hotels (Omni and JW Marriott) going in downtown, along with the only 5* 5 diamond hotel in Tennessee- The Hermitage. Plus the incredible foody scene that is booming now in Nashville with world class chefs bringing haute cuisine to the Nashville market (see NYTimes, WSJ, Time Magazine, Bon Apetit, and Travel+Leisure articles for more info). Oh and to put a nail in the Memphis coffin, Nashville was just ranked the #1 BBQ city in America. Further, from a business point-of-view, Nashville is much more welcoming for outside capital (less-corrupt municipal goverments- see the Memphis Ford family). Every week a new article comes out of the Tennessean or Nashville Bus. Journal announcing a new $100m+ project funded by New York/Dallas/Atlanta/LA firms here in Nashville, have not seen anything new going on in Memphis for a while.

[Edited 2014-12-13 18:35:43]

[Edited 2014-12-13 18:41:00]
AA/DL/NW/CO/UA/US/B6/AS/AC/FI/NY/EI/BD/BA/AF/AZ/DY/SK/QF/JQ/JL
 
DeltaRules
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sun Dec 14, 2014 4:07 am

Sad for MEM. A bit run down, but I liked connecting there when I could.

Quoting DLX737200 (Reply 1):
What gates are Delta using now in B?

I'd be curious to this, too, as well as the entire gate breakdown for MEM at this point.

Quoting brilondon (Reply 3):
Like at the merger they did not know this would happen? Are the regulators that daft? An airport that is less than 2 hours flying from DL's largest surviving this long is more news worthy than anything else.

Answered your own question. Assuming anyone in the American government is competent is fool's play.
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usdcaguy
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sun Dec 14, 2014 4:13 am

Quoting USFlyer MSP (Reply 21):
Many of the frequent fliers in MEM have switched to AA & UA due DL general lack of westbound flight options from MEM

Practically speaking, that will never change; DL lost a lot when it gave up the DFW hub. Having SLC really helps, though, if you're flying to somewhere in the Rockies or to the Northwest. Still, I don't understand how people in MEM are supposed to travel to Oklahoma and Kansas without a circuitous routing, unless they go through Dallas.
 
WaywardMemphian
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sun Dec 14, 2014 4:19 am

Quoting ipodguy7 (Reply 23):
If you're idea of a perfect weekend includes a high murder/drug crime rate (Memphis is the #4 Most Dangerous City in the Nation ), some ok bar-b-que, and kickass blues then Memphis is for you! It's no surpise Nashville is a better city for 1) living in, 2) visiting, 3) doing business in. Music capital of the US (no not just country music, great blues, great rock, and great other styles too (Jack White, Black Keys, Kings of Leon, etc). Plus, it's probably the nicest city in the South, with brand new 5* hotels (Omni and JW Marriott) going in downtown, along with the only 5* 5 diamond hotel in Tennessee- The Hermitage. Plus the incredible foody scene that is booming now in Nashville with world class chefs bringing haute cuisine to the Nashville market (see NYTimes, WSJ, Time Magazine, Bon Apetit, and Travel+Leisure articles for more info). Oh and to put a nail in the Memphis coffin, Nashville was just ranked the #1 BBQ city in America. Further, from a business point-of-view, Nashville is much more welcoming for outside capital (less-corrupt municipal goverments- see the Memphis Ford family). Every week a new article comes out of the Tennessean or Nashville Bus. Journal announcing a new $100m+ project funded by New York/Dallas/Atlanta/LA firms here in Nashville, have not seen anything new going on in Memphis for a while.

Yeah, Yeah, Yeah, I've heard it all before. That's lots of chest thumpin' there. There's quite few shady spots in Nashville as well and there's been many studies on how Memphis is too honest with it's crime numbers and how other cities cover them up. The Kings of Leon, are you serious?
Congrats on Nashville getting showered with all that state help on the business help that's helping it flourish, shame they treat West Tenn like crap and this is coming from someone that hasn't lived in TN in over 20 years. Last I looked Memphis even has a few restaurants in those fancy mags too. And..,. that bar-b-que thing is laughable.

Quite honestly, I live in a better place than either of the two cities we all discussing, just saying, but everything about Nashville is manufactured like that music they put out, Memphis has true grit and Soul. I've been to Franklin's nice little farmers market and factory turned artsy fartsy art enclave, quite honestly Fayetteville's is better.
 
usflyer msp
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sun Dec 14, 2014 4:24 am

Quoting usdcaguy (Reply 25):
Having SLC really helps, though, if you're flying to somewhere in the Rockies or to the Northwest.

DL does not fly MEM-SLC most of the year...

The only westbound flights are LAX and MSP (just barely west and so far north that it is really not all that useful for MEM-based passengers).

Business passengers have discovered that transiting DFW, IAH, and DEN are much better options...
 
jetjeanes
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sun Dec 14, 2014 4:31 am

There are few here calling for the airport to put one ahead of Dl and evict them.. Kick them to the curb.. their doing nothing but screwing up fares and routes for lcc,s ..problem is so many still have tons of ff miles left over drom when they were here ..
i can see for 80 miles
 
ipodguy7
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sun Dec 14, 2014 4:44 am

Quoting WaywardMemphian (Reply 26):
Quite honestly, I live in a better place than either of the two cities we all discussing, just saying, but everything about Nashville is manufactured like that music they put out, Memphis has true grit and Soul. I've been to Franklin's nice little farmers market and factory turned artsy fartsy art enclave, quite honestly Fayetteville's is better.

Well if we're going to be comparing small, minor cities to eachother (Fayetteville and the Nashville suburb of Franklin), Franklin is constantly named the #1 small town in the South, beating out Savannah and many other "southern charms". Fayetteville's got.... Walmart for a neighbor (I guess the've got that going for 'em!)

Quoting WaywardMemphian (Reply 26):
just saying, but everything about Nashville is manufactured like that music they put out, Memphis has true grit and Soul.

While I agree the music quality the big studios are putting out is more formulaeic at this point, At least there still is music business in Nashville. Haven't all the record studios in Memphis shut down? The music tourism, quality of today's country music aside, is absolutely booming in Nashville, much like it is in Austin. I'd take a thriving music industry (Ryman, Opry House, Country Music Hall of Fame, The Bluebird Cafe, Music Row, Lower Broadway, Bridgestone Center (one of the top 5 busiest arenas in North America), and the Schumerhorn) over a "true grit" hood any day of the week.

Quoting WaywardMemphian (Reply 26):
Yeah, Yeah, Yeah, I've heard it all before.

Probably from all the national press coverage over Nashville in the past few years. I lived in Nashville for 20 years and can count on my hand the number of times I went to Memphis (other than driving from Nashville to Dallas for school. A grand total of 3 times (Once to visit King Tut exhibit in the late 90's as a schoolkid, once with my school football team to play a Memphis school- thankfully not actually in Memphis but in Germantown, and one time to see Graceland)

Back to the topic of Tennessee airports, though, I definetly see F9/AG/NK doing ok in MEM. It fits their target demos quite nicely (lower-income holidaymakers who would be current Grey Hound/Amtrak customers).

[Edited 2014-12-13 20:47:42]

[Edited 2014-12-13 20:49:28]

[Edited 2014-12-13 21:02:23]

[Edited 2014-12-13 21:04:57]
AA/DL/NW/CO/UA/US/B6/AS/AC/FI/NY/EI/BD/BA/AF/AZ/DY/SK/QF/JQ/JL
 
brilondon
Posts: 3164
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sun Dec 14, 2014 4:47 am

Quoting spinkid (Reply 7):

Hard to believe they can't offer daily non stops to MCO and only seasonal to LAS. I'd imagine we'll see Allegiant, Frontier and possibly even Spirit filling some of these routes

Yes, those are the airlines of choice for me...

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 14):

Yes MEM is home to three Fortune500s (Autozone, Int'l Paper, and of course FedEx), but that's apparently not enough to make up for its piddling O&D.

I am not sure about FX but I would think that people who work for FedEx would fly on FedEx, they have seats albeit sucky ones and no service.
Rush forever Closer To My Heart
 
CIDFlyer
Posts: 2157
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sun Dec 14, 2014 4:55 am

Quoting ipodguy7 (Reply 23):
If you're idea of a perfect weekend includes a high murder/drug crime rate (Memphis is the #4 Most Dangerous City in the Nation ), some ok bar-b-que, and kickass blues then Memphis is for you! It's no surpise Nashville is a better city for 1) living in, 2) visiting, 3) doing business in. Music capital of the US (no not just country music, great blues, great rock, and great other styles too (Jack White, Black Keys, Kings of Leon, etc). Plus, it's probably the nicest city in the South, with brand new 5* hotels (Omni and JW Marriott) going in downtown, along with the only 5* 5 diamond hotel in Tennessee- The Hermitage. Plus the incredible foody scene that is booming now in Nashville with world class chefs bringing haute cuisine to the Nashville market (see NYTimes, WSJ, Time Magazine, Bon Apetit, and Travel+Leisure articles for more info). Oh and to put a nail in the Memphis coffin, Nashville was just ranked the #1 BBQ city in America. Further, from a business point-of-view, Nashville is much more welcoming for outside capital (less-corrupt municipal goverments- see the Memphis Ford family). Every week a new article comes out of the Tennessean or Nashville Bus. Journal announcing a new $100m+ project funded by New York/Dallas/Atlanta/LA firms here in Nashville, have not seen anything new going on in Memphis for a while.

While I always enjoyed my connections on Northwest through Memphis from the late 90s to mid 00's, I always wondered why Northwest stayed there considering the shoddy O&D numbers. I get that it was their link to the South and FedEx kept the operating costs low, but I always wondered why Northwest didn't move to BNA after AA closed up due to it's better O&D, business and leisure travel market and more affluent and larger population. Not that it would would have mattered now anyways with with be Delta but I still always wondered.
 
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compensateme
Posts: 3279
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sun Dec 14, 2014 5:19 am

Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 31):
While I always enjoyed my connections on Northwest through Memphis from the late 90s to mid 00's, I always wondered why Northwest stayed there considering the shoddy O&D numbers. I get that it was their link to the South and FedEx kept the operating costs low, but I always wondered why Northwest didn't move to BNA after AA closed up due to it's better O&D, business and leisure travel market and more affluent and larger population. Not that it would would have mattered now anyways with with be Delta but I still always wondered.

- Most of the groundwork for MEM's expansion was planned in the early 1990s. The explosive growth in BNA & radically changing demographics was unforeseen then.

- It cost a lot of money & other resources to move a hub. NW desired to move its MEM hub to ATL after EA went bust, but ultimately lacked the resources to do so.

- Until the late 1990s, MEM was concentrated on Deep South markets, offering limited service to major markets and double-connecting many passengers onto DC-10 through DTW & MSP. Given this strategy, and the lower costs associated with MEM, I doubt BNA would've been more beneficial. Should NW continued as a standalone carrier, such a move would've likely been considered, though.

[Edited 2014-12-13 21:21:10]
We don’t care what your next flight is.
 
HPRamper
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sun Dec 14, 2014 6:50 am

Quoting brilondon (Reply 30):
I am not sure about FX but I would think that people who work for FedEx would fly on FedEx, they have seats albeit sucky ones and no service.

Well, yes, but for many markets there is only two or even one flight per day, and each plane only has 2-4 seats to sit in. So if there is some kind of meeting or event, that won't cut it. Seats are usually needed for jumpseating flight crew anyway. On the plus side, all the leg room you could want!
 
WaywardMemphian
Posts: 1502
Joined: Sat Dec 13, 2014 9:05 pm

RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sun Dec 14, 2014 2:04 pm

Quoting ipodguy7 (Reply 29):
Haven't all the record studios in Memphis shut down?

That's funny, considering Nashville's own Jack Black uses Memphis based Ardent often to record, but go ahead and keep talking like an expert on the ills of Memphis and it's music industry.

[Edited 2014-12-14 06:46:24]
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8303
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sun Dec 14, 2014 2:27 pm

Quoting DeltaRules (Reply 24):
Quoting brilondon (Reply 3):
Like at the merger they did not know this would happen? Are the regulators that daft? An airport that is less than 2 hours flying from DL's largest surviving this long is more news worthy than anything else.

Answered your own question. Assuming anyone in the American government is competent is fool's play.

The relevant rules for assessing competitive effects of the DL+NW merger - DOJ's (not DOT) horizontal market assessment rules - have been in place for some time, going back to the abandoned UA + US merger in 2000. Really, really simplifying things, they look at the number of city pairs that will lose competition by non-stop and 1-stop service.

Example: MEM-ATL lost competition because only NW and DL flew MEM-ATL non-stop. (And then Southwest added it post AirTran)

NW from MEM served (if I recall my count correctly) 102 cities non-stop in 2008 on the date the merger was announced. Just two of those were not then served non-stop by DL from ATL.

A drawdown of the MEM hub was a logical conclusion and has minimal effect on competition in the scale of the nationwide route network.
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sun Dec 14, 2014 8:16 pm

Quoting brilondon (Reply 30):
I am not sure about FX but I would think that people who work for FedEx would fly on FedEx, they have seats albeit sucky ones and no service.

FX has agreements with pax airlines for its employees.

No way they can rely on the few freighter seats, that move around sporadically at odd times of the day, to handle their travel needs.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
wkid87
Posts: 6
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sun Dec 14, 2014 8:28 pm

Can anyone pull up the loads from Memphis within the past couples of months? I am curious to see how Southwest and American are doing since the pull backs has started.
 
Cubsrule
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sun Dec 14, 2014 9:38 pm

Quoting ipodguy7 (Reply 29):
Back to the topic of Tennessee airports, though, I definetly see F9/AG/NK doing ok in MEM. It fits their target demos quite nicely (lower-income holidaymakers who would be current Grey Hound/Amtrak customers).

I've always been surprised how many foreign tourists (especially Brits) Memphis attracts; if you go into the Peabody on a summer weekend, Americans often seem to be in the minority.

Nashville's tourist numbers are a lot higher, but once you strip out conventions and other "forced" visits, I don't know that the numbers are as different as you think.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sun Dec 14, 2014 9:57 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 38):

Nashville's tourist numbers are a lot higher, but once you strip out conventions and other "forced" visits, I don't know that the numbers are as different as you think.

That statement doesn't appear to make any sense.

You start off talking about tourists (who are O&D, and also drive-in) but then segue into talking about cnnx pax in the same sentence. The two don't really have anything to do with each other.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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compensateme
Posts: 3279
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sun Dec 14, 2014 10:08 pm

Quoting wkid87 (Reply 37):
Can anyone pull up the loads from Memphis within the past couples of months? I am curious to see how Southwest and American are doing since the pull backs has started.

AA & WN have injected a large amount of capacity into MEM and have seen subsequent large traffic increases. Time will tell if this capacity sticks... AA gradually extends the capacity surge, but has not committed to it in advance, which is interesting.

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 39):
That statement doesn't appear to make any sense.

You start off talking about tourists (who are O&D, and also drive-in) but then segue into talking about cnnx pax in the same sentence. The two don't really have anything to do with each other.

By "forced" visits, he's referring to "involuntarily" tourism and suggesting that voluntary tourism to Memphis & Nashville may be similar. He's not referencing air traffic numbers, but responding to other assertions.
We don’t care what your next flight is.
 
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AirportRival
Posts: 405
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sun Dec 14, 2014 10:15 pm

Quoting ipodguy7 (Reply 29):
Back to the topic of Tennessee airports, though, I definetly see F9/AG/NK doing ok in MEM. It fits their target demos quite nicely (lower-income holidaymakers who would be current Grey Hound/Amtrak customers).

It didn't seem to help Frontier keep the DFW route at MEM. Yes I know that Delta has since closed it's DFW route since then as well but I don't think that the people that were choosing Delta before would all of a sudden start choosing Frontier since American still flies the route.
 
SurfandSnow
Posts: 1567
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2009 7:09 am

RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sun Dec 14, 2014 11:00 pm

Quoting MSJYOP28Apilot (Thread starter):
Delta is going to be cutting its nonstops from MEM to ORD/RDU/IND

This was bound to happen sooner or later. I can't believe MEM-ORD lasted as long as it did, since DL was essentially just a p2p operator on the route competing against AA, UA, and WN (all of whom benefit from huge FFer bases and tons of connectivity in Chicago).

Quoting MSJYOP28Apilot (Thread starter):
MCO dropping to once per week

So MEM-MCO falls in line with DL's typical service pattern between mid-sized heartland markets and MCO. No surprise here either.

Quoting MSJYOP28Apilot (Thread starter):
This will leave them with daily service to ATL, MSP, DTW, CVG, LGA, LAX.

I can't believe MEM-CVG remains. MEM is now one of the smallest and weakest markets linked to CVG; any connection opportunities available through CVG exist via ATL/DTW/MSP or even LGA instead.

I'm also surprised to see MEM-LAX continue at a daily year round frequency. A market like PIT is roughly twice the size of MEM and still struggles to support a single daily year round service to LAX. Several southern markets larger than MEM - GSO, Hampton Roads (ORF/PHF), JAX and SDF - have no nonstop service to LA at all.

In summation, I'm not even sure the operation that remains is viable. I wouldn't be surprised to see all MEM-CVG service cut and MEM-LAX be reduced in frequency, go seasonal, or get completely eliminated in the future.

Quoting MSJYOP28Apilot (Thread starter):
Seasonal nonstops to LAS/SLC/CUN remain.

MEM-CUN was cut before and could certainly get the axe again. MEM-LAS is probably gone the second WN or F9 or G4 starts it.

In the end I could see DL down to just ATL/DTW/LGA/MSP and limited nonstop services to MCO/SLC and maybe CUN/LAX. I don't think DL is finished cutting MEM just yet, and it doesn't seem like there are many opportunities for LCC or ULCC expansion. It has long been known that MEM was drastically overserved relative to O&D, and the service today finally reflects the actual demand of the market.
Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
 
rtalk25
Posts: 631
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2014 4:14 am

RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Sun Dec 14, 2014 11:56 pm

Quoting Surfandsnow (Reply 42):
I'm also surprised to see MEM-LAX continue at a daily year round frequency. A market like PIT is roughly twice the size of MEM and still struggles to support a single daily year round service to LAX.

MEM is 500 miles closer to LAX than PIT is to LAX; however, I'm not sure if that offsets the market size of MEM being smaller than PIT or if it helps justify MEM-LAX in general.

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 14):
It doesn't help that BNA is right next door....... with a 25% larger metro population, thrice as many Fortune500s, an immensely stronger tourism base, and a hub-in-everything-but-name by WN.

It's still 221 miles of road between MEM and BNA (big WN hub). In comparison, MDT is just 97 miles from BWI (big WN hub, actually even bigger with more Florida and LAS flights) and Frontier is pulling out of MDT-MCO.

Population wise, I compared the metros that define Central PA vs. Memphis and it's close.

Regarding Frontier and MEM, I'm not sure if Frontier will see MEM with opportunity for it or not, especially given the direction towards being in larger markets. It did recently nix the MEM-DFW route, but still has MEM-DEN, while oddly Southwest lacks a MEM-DEN.
 
michman
Posts: 901
Joined: Sat Dec 23, 2006 9:51 am

RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Mon Dec 15, 2014 3:16 am

Quoting Surfandsnow (Reply 42):
I can't believe MEM-CVG remains. MEM is now one of the smallest and weakest markets linked to CVG; any connection opportunities available through CVG exist via ATL/DTW/MSP or even LGA instead.

There's still a few other fairly small markets connected to CVG. XNA, RIC, GRR, and MSN for example.
 
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LAX772LR
Posts: 13278
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Mon Dec 15, 2014 5:57 am

Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 43):
It's still 221 miles of road between MEM and BNA

That doesn't mean much in the South though.

MSY is another fairly large WN station, and that airport sees people drive in from as far as MOB, LCH, AEX, etc to take advantage of its better fares or increased nonstops, all day every day.

Same for BNA, MCO, TPA, etc.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 3865
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Mon Dec 15, 2014 6:17 am

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 45):

That doesn't mean much in the South though.

MSY is another fairly large WN station, and that airport sees people drive in from as far as MOB, LCH, AEX, etc to take advantage of its better fares or increased nonstops, all day every day.

Same for BNA, MCO, TPA, etc.

Ummm, No. There is not significant bleed from MEM to BNA. My father's side of the family is from Memphis and literally no one has ever driven to BNA to catch a flight. They occasionally flew out of LIT before WN came to MEM but that is it. BNA and MEM fares are now relatively comparable...no one is going to drive 3.5 hours to save $50.
 
bjorn14
Posts: 3595
Joined: Sat Feb 27, 2010 2:11 pm

RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Mon Dec 15, 2014 11:20 am

Quoting USFlyer MSP (Reply 45):
literally no one has ever driven to BNA to catch a flight.

I did back in 1986 to catch the old People Express to EWR and then on to LGW. but you are right I never heard anyone driving to BNA but lots of people on the Betty Bus to LIT.
"I want to know the voice of God the rest is just details" --A. Einstein
 
wkid87
Posts: 6
Joined: Sun Nov 23, 2014 9:37 pm

RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Mon Dec 15, 2014 2:16 pm

Quoting AirportRival (Reply 40):
ed.

AA & WN have injected a large amount of capacity into MEM and have seen subsequent large traffic increases. Time will tell if this capacity sticks... AA gradually extends the capacity surge, but has not committed to it in advance, which is interesting.

It will be interesting to see if AA bring in bigger jets to offset the extra traffic. I believed another airline can add an additional MEM-LAX flight and possible MEM-RDU.

Overall, MEM needs reasonable fares. I think that will be a keypart to MEM success in the future.
 
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ERJ170
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RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Mon Dec 15, 2014 7:04 pm

I just noticed that RDU will only have 2 destinations on Delta west of the Mississippi after everything is said and done.. LAX and MSP.. that's sad.. LAS is seasonal, no? or was it completely pulled. SLC seems to come back every few years.. I'm still holding out on SEA.. I just know that's got to be in the cards somewhere.. other than that, the only other option I could see is AUS..

Just an observation and a thought.. Carry on me little ones...
Aiming High and going far..
 
SunsetLimited
Posts: 901
Joined: Thu Oct 02, 2014 6:20 pm

RE: More DL Cuts In MEM

Mon Dec 15, 2014 7:09 pm

Quoting wkid87 (Reply 47):
It will be interesting to see if AA bring in bigger jets to offset the extra traffic. I believed another airline can add an additional MEM-LAX flight and possible MEM-RDU.

AA is downgauging some of the DFW flights to CR9.

Another airline on MEM-LAX? Not a chance. One nonstop plus connecting feed over DFW, IAH, DEN, etc is sufficient for that market.

MEM-RDU? That survived on connecting traffic. You won't see it coming back.
Spread hope like fire.

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