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vfw614
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Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Mon Dec 15, 2014 12:23 pm

Ryanair has been expanding into secondary German airports recently. In addition to its Bremen base, Ryanair has moved into airports such as Cologne/Bonn, Dortmund, Hamburg and Nuremberg were they are slowly building up a route network. Ryanair has now also expressed interest in serving Germany's #2 airport, Munich, and they also have already a presence at Germany #3 market, BER, through a base at SXF. This leads me to the question if Ryanair is getting closer to starting German domestic services. Depending on what German airport becomes a base in the mid-term future, stuff like HAM-NUE/FKB/MUC, SXF-MUC/CGN/FKB or CGN-MUC/SXF/HAM or MUC-SXF/HAM/BRE/CGN/DTM could be on the cards. I am of course aware of issues like the double ADP and VAT on domestic travel etc. that are barriers to market entrance. However, with the consolidation of the German domestic market that has seen dba, Gexx, HLX and Lufthansa mainline disappearing (with the exception of MUC/FRA routes) and the offer now down to Germanwings and airberlin plus Ryanair's move to become more business friendly, I am wondering if there is a good opportunity for a new market entrant with deep pockets such as Ryanair.

The same might be true, albeit at a smaller scale, for easyjet that already has a sizeable presence at SXF and BSL (that serves southwest Germany to some extent) and is buildung up a presence at HAM and STR.
 
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seahawk
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Mon Dec 15, 2014 12:40 pm

Due to the "eco Tax" they are not interested at the moment.
 
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LOWS
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Mon Dec 15, 2014 12:51 pm

How they could possibly get slots for MUC is a mystery to me...
 
vfw614
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Mon Dec 15, 2014 1:08 pm

Why? MUC has sufficient slot capacity. Actually, the number of movements in 2013 at 382.000 was 50.000 or approx. 12 per cent below the all-time high of 2007/08 (432.000). The passenger growth of the past years has not been achieved through more movements, but through less movements by bigger aircraft. Currently, the number of annual movements is at the 2004 level.

Quoting seahawk (Reply 1):
Due to the "eco Tax" they are not interested at the moment.

Until very recently, Ryanair also said they were not interested to operate to/from MUC, unconcerned about public perception or owuld never entertain seat reservations. Things change quickly nowadays.
 
smbukas
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Mon Dec 15, 2014 1:33 pm

Quoting LOWS (Reply 2):
How they could possibly get slots for MUC is a mystery to me...

MUC is really not difficult. There 2-3 peaks during the day when it is impossible to get slots for 60-90 min intervals range, but other day there are plenty of capacity. You can't compare it with LHR, CDG and even AMS.
 
SCQ83
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Mon Dec 15, 2014 1:53 pm

I think they operated HHN-SXF for a while.
 
r2rho
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Mon Dec 15, 2014 2:02 pm

A very high-cost operation such as the German domestic does not really fit their business model, even taking into account the "new" Ryanair. Due to the extremely high share that taxes have on the ticket price (as you say, double APD, 19% VAT, plus standard set of taxes & fees), I'd dare say that any domestic roundtrip sold under 130-150EUR loses money. There would be nothing low-cost about it, and FR or U2 would be forced to charge similar prices as LH. Given that they have no long-haul to feed, there is little incentive to fly such high-cost routes for a rather meager return, if not just breakeven.

And even with the new business strategy, I don't see MUC for FR as a base due to lack of free slots at peak times. At most I could imagine a handful of flights during the off-peak hours, flown from another base.
 
vfw614
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Mon Dec 15, 2014 2:16 pm

I don't buy that argument. The fixed costs are the same for all airlines operating domestically. So Ryanair with its lower cost base can always offer lower prices than Lufthansa or airberlin - although the overall level of prices will be higher than on other Ryanair routes. But this is already true for the newer routes from secondary airports compared to the older routes from tertiary airports. The argument would only make sense if there was a rule that Ryanair does not operate in markets where the base fare is above a certain maximum threshold as a reuslt of third party taxes and duties.
 
SCQ83
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Mon Dec 15, 2014 2:27 pm

Maybe they could try MST and BSL to Germany. I flew once Germanwings MST-SXF but I see they have dropped it.
 
tommy1808
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Mon Dec 15, 2014 2:49 pm

Quoting vfw614 (Thread starter):
Ryanair has now also expressed interest in serving Germany's #2 airport, Munich, and they also have already a presence at Germany #3 market, BER, through a base at SXF. This leads me to the question if Ryanair is getting closer to starting German domestic services.

At some point they will. But it will be difficult for some reasons.

1. Single Aircraft type: While perfectly good for what they do so far, to enter a domestic one like Germanys they may proof to big. For domestic flying people expect at least two daily frequencies to get places and back within one day, and they expect that at prime times as otherwise they can just drive or take the train. The number of city pairs that can support at least 400 people/day/direction is fairly small and i think those have all either Munich, Frankfurt, Düsseldorf or Berlin at one end or both.
2. Competition: Those cities are hubs for LH and Airberlin, so they will offer flights with significant frequencies to feed their hub waves no matter what. Dumping extra seats to fill them is hence more attractive to them then flying them out empty. And they already do so looking at their promotional fares.
3. Trains: There aren´t many large city pairs where the Deutsche Bahn doesn´t offer viable same-day return options, and even the ICE´s 2nd class with its 36 inch pitch is a dream compared to any short range airliner. Thanks to the hotspots, you can even get maningful work done on the train, in first class (40 inch) you even have service at your seat. Unless the timing really doesn´t work without a flight, travelling by train is more cost effective due to that.
4. Prices, low end: Almost 10 EUR of every domestic flight are Flighttax and the VAT on said tax. Not much room for a contribution margin in a promotional ticket. Even in a 49,- EUR ticket, you only have like 34 EUR to cover your expenses. Not good for business at busy main airports. Germanwingst starts at 33 EUR one way, Airberlin offers 90 EUR return all in, baggage, service (...well, sort of) and miles, Lufthansa starts at a few Euro more.
Not much room to lure people on board with good prices, unless Ryanair really want to burn money.
5. Prices, high end: The most expensive train ticket is 237,- EUR one way in first class or 142,- EUR in 2nd class, a value that can be halfed by purchasing a Bahncard 50. That puts a very firm lid on how high airlines can charge for a domestic flight, as those prices above then become the return prices. And there is also the Bahncard 100 for the real frequent treveler ..... not much room to recover losses of promotion tickets.

Between a full service airline offering you 5 choices to get from Munich to Hamburg every day and Ryanair offering you two for what will often be a near or near equal price, which will you chose? Especially if you have a good Status at Miles&More?

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
r2rho
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Mon Dec 15, 2014 3:02 pm

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 9):
There aren´t many large city pairs where the Deutsche Bahn doesn´t offer viable same-day return options

Any city-pair combination including the four "peripheric" cities HAM, MUC, STR, BER is not competitive by train. Those would be the only viable candidates IMO.

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 9):
Between a full service airline offering you 5 choices to get from Munich to Hamburg every day and Ryanair offering you two for what will often be a near or near equal price, which will you chose? Especially if you have a good Status at Miles&More?

That was indeed my point, though you summed it up better: with the taxes fixing the minimum price, and the train fixing the maximum, there is very little room to play with fares. FR could not offer anything significantly cheaper than LH, and as much better established (but higher cost) AB has learned, you can get burned very quickly when trying to compete against LH on domestic. Either you burn money or you at best break even, there is very little profit to be had, and no long-haul to be fed.
 
tommy1808
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Mon Dec 15, 2014 3:17 pm

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 7):
I don't buy that argument. The fixed costs are the same for all airlines operating domestically. So Ryanair with its lower cost base can always offer lower prices than Lufthansa or airberlin

Nope. On LH and AB flights lots of the pax are transfer pax, So about half of the seats are not competing with Ryanair, the math for the rest aims for maximum extra revenue and contributing margin, those O&D Pax do not have to pay for the flight. To fill their long haul flights, they are flying anyways, they have to. And to compete with someone that has to fly, even if that means mounting losses, doesn´t strike me as very smart businss plan. In London or Paris, centers of highly centralized countries, you may find more than enough traffic for lots of O&D on top of a feeder network.... but Germany does neither have a London or a Paris.

Also, while Ryanair may produce cheaper than the average CASM of a network carrier, a LH 190 Seat A321 won´t do all that bad compared to a 189 seat 738 on a CASM base, the smaller aircraft drive the costs up. But where those fly, a 189 to 197 seat plane may be a little bit optimistic to fill w/o transfer pax.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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GCT64
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Mon Dec 15, 2014 3:31 pm

Quoting r2rho (Reply 10):
with the taxes fixing the minimum price, and the train fixing the maximum, there is very little room to play with fares

But the tax situation is, I believe, even worse in the UK than Germany and EZY has been operating LTN-EDI and LTN-GLA since they first started (and through all the various tax and fuel cost increases over those decades). FR very recently re-started UK domestic flights, now operating STN-EDI 3 times daily, with pricing starting at 45 EUR return incl. all taxes etc.

If EZY or FR want to attack the German domestic market (e.g. HAM-MUC (both EZY destinations already) or SXF-MUC (again both EZY destinations)) I believe they will be successful.

But...... EZY hasn't to date, despite its higher focus on business pax and existing presence at the relevant airports, so I am somewhat wondering why they haven't.
Flown in: A20N,A21N,A30B,A306,A310,A319,A320,A321,A332,A333,A343,A346,A359,A388,BA11,BU31,(..56 more types..),VC10,WESX
 
mozart
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Mon Dec 15, 2014 3:35 pm

The bulk of travelers on German domestic routes are either continuing on an international/intercontinental service on LH, AB or one of their partners, or they are traveling for some form of business (where "business" is not only men in suits flying Business Class, but basically those people that pick their flights not a long time ahead, pick their flights depending on when they need to be somewhere instead of fixing their meeting times dependand upon Ryanair's cheapest offers, and often do return trips within the day). Which means that whichever airline wants to fill its seats has to have international feed, and/or many frequencies, and/or corporate contracts. The rest is small fry.

There are few domestic routes between business centres and most of the traffic being "business-type traffic" where Ryanair has established itself as a major player. Maybe London STN-Edinburgh and STN-Glasgow, but STN is a secondary airport and fares for short-term purchase are not that much lower than British Airways.
 
tommy1808
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Mon Dec 15, 2014 3:41 pm

Quoting r2rho (Reply 10):
Any city-pair combination including the four "peripheric" cities HAM, MUC, STR, BER is not competitive by train. Those would be the only viable candidates IMO.

Right now you are correct, but the Trains are evolving too. Münich-Berlin will be 3:45 Minutes, Stuttgart-Berlin about 4:20, Düsseldorf-Munich will go below 4 hours. That is still on the edge, but from my experiance, i am on the 4:11 hour Hanover-Munich train a lot, that is where many people start prefering rail over wings. Me included, and i am a member of this and not a train forum.....
Hamburg on the other hand is really way out there unless you want to go to Berlin.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
tommy1808
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Mon Dec 15, 2014 3:50 pm

Quoting GCT64 (Reply 12):
I believe, even worse in the UK than Germany and EZY has been operating LTN-EDI and LTN-GLA since they first started (and through all the various tax and fuel cost increases over those decades). FR very recently re-started UK domestic flights, now operating STN-EDI 3 times daily, with pricing starting at 45 EUR return incl. all taxes etc.

Considering that LTN is almost as far away from LHR than DUS from CGN and STN-LHR being even further, one could argue FR, EZ and BA supply different markets to some degree. Since there are no cities with more than one mayor airport in Germany (if BER ever opens that is) they would need to go right into the dragons lair, and i don´t see many orange and blue, white and yellow aircraft taxiing around LHR.....

Quoting GCT64 (Reply 12):
with pricing starting at 45 EUR return incl. all taxes etc.

which is about 24 Euro more than 4Us starting prices for a return, about the same Air Berlin charges and single digit cheaper than Lufthansa. In the latter two cases that already includes drink, baggage and miles...

best regards
Thomas

[Edited 2014-12-15 07:51:59]
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
vfw614
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Mon Dec 15, 2014 4:05 pm

It is incorrect to say that German domestic flying almost exclusively is hub feed. Absolutely not true. Quite to the contrary: A lot of hub feed is nowadays done by train via FRA. Almost all domestic routes - and there are dozens, often with two digit daily frequencies - not touching MUC or FRA are overwhelmingly P2P.

Btw, most of the routes I mentioned in my opening post do not involve "hubs" - domestic flights by Ryanair from potential bases like HAM, SXF or CGN would not, with the exception of a MUC route, involve flying into another airline's hub. As far as MUC is concerned, I doubt that airlines cannot compete with Lufthansa on price to MUC only because Lufthansa feeds passengers into their hub network there. There has always been direct competition on Lufthansa's MUC services in the past two decades by at least one other carrier that does not have a hub at MUC and relies on P2P passengers - be it Deutsche BA, Germania or airberlin.

As far as trains are concerned, I am aware of those, of course. My point was that there has always been competition between trains and planes on the domestic market. But the competition on the airlines' side has changed significantly.

Finally, what makes you think that market opportunities on domestic and international routes are so different for Ryanair when it comes to setting up shop at an airport like, say, HAM or MUC? The logical approach is either serving new markets from those airports or serving existing trunk routes with a high traffic volume. The bigger a new base is, the less destinations are unserved, so the strategy will lean towards getting a chunk of the trunk route passengers. So why would Ryanair go for high volume markets like, say, MUC-MIL/BRU/LON/MAD/BCN/FCO, but not for high volume markets such as MUC-HAM/BER?
 
Delta777Jet
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Mon Dec 15, 2014 4:15 pm

Now when Ryanair start to serve major airports in Germany it would be a big opportunity to try again to fly German domestic routes. Even with the high cost at the airports they will be able to offer good prices and if frequency is high enough they will be able to fight Air Berlin, Germanwings and Lufthansa on these markets.

I m quite sure that Ryanair on time performance is much better than Germanwings and the service is the same, so I expect that would work.
I still miss Trans World Airlines and the L-1011
 
vfw614
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Mon Dec 15, 2014 4:32 pm

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 15):
Quoting GCT64 (Reply 12):
with pricing starting at 45 EUR return incl. all taxes etc.

which is about 24 Euro more than 4Us starting prices for a return, about the same Air Berlin charges and single digit cheaper than Lufthansa. In the latter two cases that already includes drink, baggage and miles...

The last time I booked a Germanwings return with baggage and drinks it was more like 90 EUR, not 45 EUR? Not sure where you get the idea from that Germanwings offers SMART return fares for 45 EUR - 24 EUR = 21 EUR?

In fact, 45 EUR return would be half the price of the starting basic fare of airberlin and Germanwings.
 
Delta777Jet
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Mon Dec 15, 2014 5:27 pm

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 18):
In fact, 45 EUR

Exactly.

I just looked up a domestic UK flight from Stansted to Glasgow for tomorrow, which would be similar to Hamburg to Munich. There are 3 daily flights each would cost tomorrow 47 GBP the business fare would be 88 GBP.

Compared Hamburg to Munich tomorrow cheapest flight with Air Berlin around 130 Euro, Lufthansa 200 Euro and flexible ticket around 400 Euro, that's 4 times more than similar stage length in the UK with Ryanair.

Even in Poland, Ryanair is flying domestic between Warsaw to Wroclaw and Warsaw to Gdansk and some other seasonal routes. So I think in Germany there is a huge potential for Ryanair on real domestic city to city connections.

Even the railway is so expensive compared to flights.
I still miss Trans World Airlines and the L-1011
 
tommy1808
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Mon Dec 15, 2014 5:47 pm

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 16):
Almost all domestic routes - and there are dozens, often with two digit daily frequencies - not touching MUC or FRA are overwhelmingly P2P.

Ok, i want to see your list of domestic city pairs with *at least* dubble digit daily frequencies that do not touch Munich, Berlin, Frankfurt or Düsseldorf. Hamburg-Stuttgart has 10 ....

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 16):
Btw, most of the routes I mentioned in my opening post do not involve "hubs" - domestic flights by Ryanair from potential bases like HAM, SXF or CGN would not, with the exception of a MUC route

You also need a domestic airport to land at that makes sense. Outside of Hamburg those may prove difficult to find.

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 16):
As far as MUC is concerned, I doubt that airlines cannot compete with Lufthansa on price to MUC only because Lufthansa feeds passengers into their hub network there.

Ask DBA how well it worked out for them to compete with LH in MUC. They went belly up pretty quickly despite its Ryanair like approach (bigger, cheap to operate planes, cheap and effective operation).

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 16):
There has always been direct competition on Lufthansa's MUC services in the past two decades by at least one other carrier that does not have a hub at MUC and relies on P2P passengers - be it Deutsche BA, Germania or airberlin.

All known for their stellar profits... DBA is history, Germania only serves some laisure destinations LH doesn´t fly to from MUC iirc these days and Airberlin is pretty much sixt sense airline.... aka they just don´t know they are dead yet.

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 16):
As far as trains are concerned, I am aware of those, of course. My point was that there has always been competition between trains and planes on the domestic market.

They have always been around, but different than flying, that takes about the same time as it did 40 years ago, trains are faster today.

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 16):
But the competition on the airlines' side has changed significantly.

True. Flying has become much more of a hassle compared to to 15 years ago and compared to hopping on a train. The magic "train kills flight" travel time used to be around the 3 hour mark got pushed towards 4 hours. Most of the interessting city pairs in German will be at or below the 4 hour line by 2020. There is a reason LH feeds so many passengers into FRA by train, many passengers prefer it on those short trips to Frankfurt. Flying into Munich however is a different ballgame since getting there by train is somewhat inconvinient. That is Hub-feeding country. I am not so sure Airberlin would stay w/o AB7492, AB7461, EY3, EY4, EY5 and EY6 either..

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 16):
The bigger a new base is, the less destinations are unserved, so the strategy will lean towards getting a chunk of the trunk route passengers. So why would Ryanair go for high volume markets like, say, MUC-MIL/BRU/LON/MAD/BCN/FCO, but not for high volume markets such as MUC-HAM/BER?

because on those routes, they are usually not up against 10 or more frequencies at an overall compareable price level and a rail competition that offers a hell lot more comfort and prices for the budget traveler they can´t undercut and offer largely competitive door to door travel times? And options for the business user (Bahncard 100) that plainly don´t exist in air travel?

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 18):

In fact, 45 EUR return would be half the price of the starting basic fare of airberlin and Germanwings.

My mistake, missed the "return". Doesn´t really change a thing...

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
tommy1808
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Mon Dec 15, 2014 5:52 pm

Quoting delta777jet (Reply 19):

I just looked up a domestic UK flight from Stansted to Glasgow for tomorrow, which would be similar to Hamburg to Munich. There are 3 daily flights each would cost tomorrow 47 GBP the business fare would be 88 GBP.

Compared Hamburg to Munich tomorrow cheapest flight with Air Berlin around 130 Euro, Lufthansa 200 Euro and flexible ticket around 400 Euro, that's 4 times more than similar stage length in the UK with Ryanair.

I can also take the train tomorrow and pay 37 EUR.....

If Ryanair keeps charging 47 pounds for next day flying, the flight won´t be around for long.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
vfw614
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Mon Dec 15, 2014 6:10 pm

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 20):
Ok, i want to see your list of domestic city pairs with *at least* dubble digit daily frequencies that do not touch Munich, Berlin, Frankfurt or Düsseldorf.

You conveniently added Berlin and Düsseldorf to my list of FRA and MUC. BER and DUS no longer have mainline Lufthansa service and they are no Lufthansa hubs. Stuff like DUS-HAM, BER-STR, CGN-BER, STR-HAM etc. is P2P.

As others have stated, if Ryanair flies domestically in Poland, the UK, Italy or Spain, there is no reason why they should not be able to do that in Germany as price competition is always relative.

Btw, I don't really get your obsession with railways. Nobody disputes that there is competition between air travel and the railways. But if your argument would hold any water, not even Lufthansa and airberlin would fly domestically in Germany except for feeding the FRA/MUC hubs. And it is not as if the whole of Germany would consist of HSR tracks.
 
jetblue1965
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Mon Dec 15, 2014 6:25 pm

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 22):

As others have stated, if Ryanair flies domestically in Poland, the UK, Italy or Spain, there is no reason why they should not be able to do that in Germany as price competition is always relative.

All 4 you have listed have significantly less HSR penetration than DE (or FR). Heck, UK rail is poor that people fly LON-MAN.

FRA-MUC is only 187mi great circle distance, a route which DB has good market share to cannibalize the air option. I'd venture to say that the 2 largest routes that is significantly more advantageous to fly would be FRA-BER and MUC-HAM.

I'm *not* saying Ryanair can't succeed in German domestic, but merely it has a higher barrier of entry.
 
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Mon Dec 15, 2014 6:50 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 23):
Heck, UK rail is poor that people fly LON-MAN.

Few local passengers given normally three trains an hour from city centre to city centre which take around 2h 10 mins.
"Everyone writing for the Telegraph knows that the way to grab eyeballs is with Ryanair and/or sex."
 
SCQ83
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Mon Dec 15, 2014 7:03 pm

Also both train and intercity coach services (which didn't exist previously in order not to compete with DBahn) have been liberalized in Germany, and there are some (very) good fares. And that puts further pressure on DBahn ticket prices.
 
vfw614
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Mon Dec 15, 2014 7:13 pm

I think German rail tends to get glorified here on a.net.

There are, for example, frequent trains between Edinburgh and London that take between 4 and 5 hours. Same for Glasgow with 4h30m and 5h30m. And I am talking about more than one train an hour. That is roughly the same time as Düsseldorf to Munich, Bonn to Hamburg, Cologne to Berlin or Stuttgart to Berlin with German rail. Folks over here at a.net tend to believe that German rail is only like the HSR between Cologne - Frankfurt and Hanover - Munich - it is not.

Conventional wisdom here would suggest that if LCC services between those German city pairs do not work, they should not work between those UK cities as well. Reality is different, though - despite the much greater hassle to get to any of the LON airports except for LCY compared to, say, HAM, DUS or CGN.

[Edited 2014-12-15 11:16:06]
 
SCQ83
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Mon Dec 15, 2014 8:11 pm

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 22):
As others have stated, if Ryanair flies domestically in Poland, the UK, Italy or Spain, there is no reason why they should not be able to do that in Germany as price competition is always relative.

Spain is a bit particular if you look at where people lives in the country (Coasts, Madrid and Islands)

Ryanair has basically MAD-Islands and Coast-to-Coast services (all around 1000 km. long), where car/coach and HSL train competition is limited (no train to the Islands and too long services for a train). Also since IB is based in MAD and VY in BCN, Ryanair has little to none competition in many of those Coast-to-Coast services... it is all for them or for expensive Air Nostrum flights.

Probably in Italy is a bit similar in all those North-South services overflying FCO where AZ is based.

[Edited 2014-12-15 12:12:49]
 
Delta777Jet
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Mon Dec 15, 2014 9:50 pm

There is a lot of P2P travel between Hamburg/Berlin and Munich, Cologne, Duesseldorf, Stuttgart.
Smaller regional airlines are living with P2P even between smaller cities, connecting Friedrichshafen with Hamburg, Berlin etc. several times per day. Why there should be more P2P demand from Germany to London than within the country ?

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 21):
can also take the train tomorrow and pay 37 EUR.....

May be for a short ride, but tomorrow the cheapest train is 125 Euro one way and it takes you almost an entire day to get from Hamburg to Munich. May be you mean by bus ?
I still miss Trans World Airlines and the L-1011
 
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flyingturtle
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Mon Dec 15, 2014 10:31 pm

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 8):
Maybe they could try MST and BSL to Germany.

There are a few routes to Germany from BSL, all served by U2:

- BSL-SXF
- BSL-HAM
- BSL-DRS

In the end of 2012, I flew BSL-DUS once with U2.

The point is that BSL is easily reached from Freiburg (about one hour by bus). BSL is sort of a German airport in this regard. The plus side is that between BSL and Germany, there are no taxes. Any line from QFB to another German city would be dead in the water.


David
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
vfw614
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Tue Dec 16, 2014 8:04 am

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 29):
BSL is sort of a German airport in this regard.

Actually, the trading name is "EuroAirport Basel Mulhouse Freiburg", so it holds itself out as a tri-national airport (interestingly, the French name is just "Aéroport de Bâle-Mulhouse").
 
mozart
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Tue Dec 16, 2014 8:18 am

And here we go, Ryanair announces that they want to set up base at MUC, it just hasn't found the right slots yet.

No word of domestic services though, but still an interesting move.

http://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/ne...nd-german-network-with-munich-base
 
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flyingturtle
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Tue Dec 16, 2014 11:10 am

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 30):
Actually, the trading name is "EuroAirport Basel Mulhouse Freiburg", so it holds itself out as a tri-national airport (interestingly, the French name is just "Aéroport de Bâle-Mulhouse").

The owners/operators are Swiss and French, while the Germans only send a "Beirat" (advisor) to the governing board. But the French commercial aviation there is negligible... two, three or four daily hops by "HOP!" aircraft to CDG - about the same number of LH flights to MUC. U2 is the workhorse at BSL.


David
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
tommy1808
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Tue Dec 16, 2014 11:15 am

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 22):
You conveniently added Berlin and Düsseldorf to my list of FRA and MUC.

Only fair, since you conviniently forgot those are hubs... but i am also willing to take a list of city pairs that have at least 10 daily flights and not touch MUC or FRA.

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 22):
BER and DUS no longer have mainline Lufthansa service and they are no Lufthansa hubs.

But Airberlin Hubs, and as almost dead as they are, they will defend their hubs. And they have a major shareholder whos only concern seems to be how to legally infuse more money to keep them flying. Ryanairs shareholders will have a different priority i am afraid.

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 22):
As others have stated, if Ryanair flies domestically in Poland, the UK, Italy or Spain, there is no reason why they should not be able to do that in Germany as price competition is always relative.

There is no reason why they couldn´t, but plenty of reason why it wound´t work very well. Not even Easy, with the right bases in place, the proper business plan for years and lots of better suited 156 seat planes doesn´t try. If they manage to get some prime slots, they may find a market, but w/o an Airline folding it may be difficult to optain those. Looking at the prices for domestic UK flying, i highly daubt they will keep those for a long time either. Poland has also lots of 9 EUR return flights if you look just 4 weeks in the future..... Ryanair is a business, if prices are so low, there obviously isn´t much of a market.

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 22):
But if your argument would hold any water, not even Lufthansa and airberlin would fly domestically in Germany except for feeding the FRA/MUC hubs.

Guess what, Lufthansa doesn´t fly except for feeding its FRA and MUC hubs ..... on HAM-DUS, used to be expensive to fly when LH still had a little Europe Hub there, no problem to find 66 EUR returns with 4U, so i guess even this prime racetrack will be single digit frequency soon. Not a big surprise, train just needs about 3 and a half hours.....

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 22):
And it is not as if the whole of Germany would consist of HSR tracks.

Actually its embarrassing how little return Deutsche Bahn gets from his high speed trackage, curtesy of tons of "Langsamfahrstellen", where even an ICE tools around at 60km/h. But it is still good enough to bring almost every big city pair to the magic 4 hour line and that people start prefering rail over wings at that point is just an objective reality. By 2020 i am afraid HAM-STR and STR-BER will be the only major routes where HSR won´t be at or below that line. And weather you like it or not, that is when regional flying disappears.

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 23):
FRA-MUC is only 187mi great circle distance, a route which DB has good market share to cannibalize the air option. I'd venture to say that the 2 largest routes that is significantly more advantageous to fly would be FRA-BER and MUC-HAM.

FRA-MUC will be down to 2:46 soon, down from 3:42 today. FRA-BER will be below 4 hours, if DB sets up a Sprinter train that will maybe be around 3:30. MUC-HAM of course will be more than 5 hours still though, but when i hop on that train in Hanover, its already goodly supplied with people from Hamburg and Bremen that go all the way to Munich... so i guess it is already taking pasengers away. But of course, the prices show that the demand is there. If MUC wasn´t LH Hub and if they hadn´t flown any P2P competition into the ground in the past, that would be where i´d go. When DBA was trying to go big LH updated even FMO-MUC from ATR to 737 and lowered its prices to the point that both where probably losing lots of money, DBA on all seats, LH only on the seats sold P2P....

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 25):
And that puts further pressure on DBahn ticket prices.

     

If you have some flexibility and planning horizon that makes it very easy to take the train for a really cheap price.

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 26):
That is roughly the same time as Düsseldorf to Munich, Bonn to Hamburg, Cologne to Berlin or Stuttgart to Berlin with German rail.

Very roughly. Düsseldorf-Münich will drop to 3:48... well, they took about 30 years to make those improvements, but there are reasons that DB expects to double (!) its marketshare on BER-MUC,-FRA basically overnight when VDE 8 is done in 3 years. And continue to rise after that...

Quoting delta777jet (Reply 28):
Smaller regional airlines are living with P2P even between smaller cities, connecting Friedrichshafen with Hamburg, Berlin etc. several times per day.

Regional airlines did mostly go bankcrupt in the last 10-15 years. EAE, DAU, City-Air, OLT, Cirrius, Augsburg Airways ...... Intersky serves BER, HAM, DUS from FDH with 11/7, "several times per day" to me seems to be at least 14/7. But at least they plan to start 14/7 in the summer flight plan period. They also have a woohping fleet of 6 aircraft, of which 2 are stored, and seem to be nailed to 200k/pax year. And their "Hub" is in an area with terrible train connections, pretty much no airline competition, one of the economic strongholds in Germany, lots of people with lots of available income...... and even they are struggeling. Who else is there?

Quoting delta777jet (Reply 28):
May be for a short ride, but tomorrow the cheapest train is 125 Euro one way and it takes you almost an entire day to get from Hamburg to Munich

Nope, direct ICE 2nd class connection. Its still 5:40 hours and hence not that interessting, but i don´t think the budget traveller cares very much. Good that i made it a habbit to take screenshots of such short lived information.


And of course, for those who travel frequently, there are still the Bahncards, which are used for ~50% of all ticket purcases, so the number of people that pay the full, not discounted price should be kinda small.

Quoting delta777jet (Reply 28):
May be you mean by bus ?

Nope. Bus would be just 25 Euro. But i guess with those travel times only the night lines are mildly attractive. But still not to shabby with 3ct/km... that is what, about half of FR´s CASK? For the next day....

Quoting mozart (Reply 31):
And here we go, Ryanair announces that they want to set up base at MUC, it just hasn't found the right slots yet.

Well, w/o filing to get slots, they won´t find any..... and fhkd.org doesn´t show Ryanair waitlisted... but i am sure there are lots of destinations Ryanair would like to fly to from MUC.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
PanHAM
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Tue Dec 16, 2014 11:37 am

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 9):
At some point they will. But it will be difficult for some reasons.

Post #9 is the best summary in this thread, basically says it all.

From my base and Point of view, if I have Business at MUC the choice of Transport mode depends where that Business is, if around the Airport, I fly, if in or near the City I take the ICE Train.

Being based in the Center of Germany, only BER HAM BRE and possibly MUC make sense for flying, anything else the ICE is more advantegous. With Bahncard 50 1st class the choice is mostly ICE Train anyway when booking on short notice.

FR will have a hard time to fill 189 seats on any given and possible City pair within Germany, their real competition will not be Lh but the new Bus Services.
Was Erlauben Erdogan!!!
 
vfw614
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Tue Dec 16, 2014 12:29 pm

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 33):
Quoting vfw614 (Reply 22):
You conveniently added Berlin and Düsseldorf to my list of FRA and MUC.

Only fair, since you conviniently forgot those are hubs... but i am also willing to take a list of city pairs that have at least 10 daily flights and not touch MUC or FRA.

Hubs is a great word in this context. What percentage of domestic passengers make a connection at TXL or DUS? You seem to have the figures, so please share. The latest figures I have is that 8 per cent of all passengers at TXL are connecting passengers and 14 per cent at DUS - and this includes INTL/INTL connections which generate, at least from my experience at DUS, the bulk of connecting passengers. In short, most domestic flights to DUS and TXL are used by an overwhelming majority of domestic travellers on P2P flights.

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 33):
Quoting vfw614 (Reply 22):
BER and DUS no longer have mainline Lufthansa service and they are no Lufthansa hubs.

But Airberlin Hubs, and as almost dead as they are, they will defend their hubs. And they have a major shareholder whos only concern seems to be how to legally infuse more money to keep them flying. Ryanairs shareholders will have a different priority i am afraid.

See above. In the context we are discussing, TXL is a joke of a hub.

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 33):
Quoting vfw614 (Reply 22):
As others have stated, if Ryanair flies domestically in Poland, the UK, Italy or Spain, there is no reason why they should not be able to do that in Germany as price competition is always relative.

There is no reason why they couldn´t, but plenty of reason why it wound´t work very well. Not even Easy, with the right bases in place, the proper business plan for years and lots of better suited 156 seat planes doesn´t try. If they manage to get some prime slots, they may find a market, but w/o an Airline folding it may be difficult to optain those. Looking at the prices for domestic UK flying,

LCC have been flying domestically in the UK for 20 years now, unperturbed by the low fares you seem to notice, by the fact that there are trains every 20 minutes or so between London and Edinburgh and Glasgow and despite a more developed market for coach travel. LCCs also fly domestically, to add a few more countries, in France or Greece. Of course they do not fly between cities were they would be uncompetitive, e.g. LON-MAN or PAR-LYS. But we are not looking at Ryanair flying FRA-MUC or DUS-STR, but city pairs where the train takes 4 hours or more. And there are still plenty of those city paris in a decentralized country like Germany. Plus if you travel at short notice and do not have the chance to book saver tickets, DB charges an arm and a leg. I know what I am talking about. I travel frequently between CGN/DUS and BER and actually prefer to take the train as I can work on the train. Fares I have sometimes paid would be unheard of at Ryanair. My day return on Ryanair for STN-GLA tomorrow would be 79.98 GBP and on easyjet for LGW-EDI 116 GBP. My day return on Deutsche Bahn tomorrow for Cologne - Berlin would set me back 234 EUR in 2nd and 358 EUR in 1st class. And no HSR at all. 'Nuff said.
 
mozart
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Tue Dec 16, 2014 12:44 pm

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 33):

FRA-MUC will be down to 2:46 soon, down from 3:42 today. FRA-BER will be below 4 hours, if DB sets up a Sprinter train that will maybe be around 3:30.

Interesting. I am not familiar with the future HSR projects in Germany. Could you point us to a source that provides an overview (I can read German if the source is in German) or elaborate a bit?
 
tommy1808
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Tue Dec 16, 2014 12:53 pm

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 35):
Hubs is a great word in this context. What percentage of domestic passengers make a connection at TXL or DUS? You seem to have the figures, so please share.

I guess before i do more research for you, i´d like to see your list of plenty of double digit frequency domestic German connections not touching MUC or FRA in Germany.

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 35):
And there are still plenty of those city paris in a decentralized country like Germany.

Name them. And it should be pairs that have a realistic outlook of filling 400 seats/day.

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 35):
My day return on Ryanair for STN-GLA tomorrow would be 79.98 GBP and on easyjet for LGW-EDI 116 GBP. My day return on Deutsche Bahn tomorrow for Cologne - Berlin would set me back 234 EUR in 2nd and 358 EUR in 1st class. And no HSR at all.

Funny, if i want to travel cheap, i still find ICE tickets to Berlin and back for 27 EUR each with a direct ICE connection for tomorrow. Without Bahncard.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
tommy1808
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Tue Dec 16, 2014 1:00 pm

Quoting mozart (Reply 36):
Interesting. I am not familiar with the future HSR projects in Germany. Could you point us to a source that provides an overview (I can read German if the source is in German) or elaborate a bit?

Don´t know any good English source, but it mostly comes under "Verkehrsprojekte Deutsche Einheit" (German Unity Transport Project) and that is a project to improve mostly east/west connections in Germany since the early 90´s. It just so happens to improve several vital north/south rail connections as a side benefit.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
vfw614
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Tue Dec 16, 2014 2:40 pm

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 37):
Funny, if i want to travel cheap, i still find ICE tickets to Berlin and back for 27 EUR each with a direct ICE connection for tomorrow. Without Bahncard.

Really? A day return that allows some meaningful work in Berlin? Say, an 11 am arrival and 5 pm departure that would (sort of) match the most likely schedule of a new entrant into the domestic market.

It is an urban legend that Ryanair and easyjet flights are only used by students and other smelly people who will travel at whatever time of the day just because it is cheaper. easyjet and Ryanair moved away from their earlier products because they were successful in attracting more and more people travelling on business or day trippers.

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 37):
I guess before i do more research for you, i´d like to see your list of plenty of double digit frequency domestic German connections not touching MUC or FRA in Germany.

So you will come up with hard data if I provide a list?

By the way, you have conveniently avoided adressing the UK example. What's your take on why LC flights have been the nucleus particularly of easjyet's success and are still around after 20 years, despite ADP, improved train services and so on?

[Edited 2014-12-16 06:43:15]
 
Delta777Jet
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Tue Dec 16, 2014 2:54 pm

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 37):
I guess before i do more research for you, i´d like to see your list of plenty of double digit frequency domestic German connections not touching MUC or FRA in Germany.

Just to give you a few ideas:

HAM-MUC-HAM
HAM-STR-HAM
HAM-DUS-HAM
HAM-CGN-HAM
HAM-FDH or SCN-HAM (may be)
HAM-NUE-HAM (may be)
HAM-DRS-HAM (may be)

BER-DUS-BER
BER-CGN-BER
BER-MUC-BER
BER-SCN/FDH-BER
BER-STR-BER

DUS-MUC-DUS
CGN-MUC-CGN

All these routes should satisfy day returns in both directions. Everything what touches Munich should probably even satisfy 3-4 rotations per day. You guys are all right with the railways giving a good alternative, but sorry, the prices are just too expensive. I dont mean the promotional prices they sometimes offer, but the regular price what the business traveller is booking. If Ryanair will offer the same at business flexible price, they for sure get the business. If the question is plane or train for the same price, I go for the plane even on the shortest route like Berlin to Hamburg, if there would be a flight like in old PanAm times.
I still miss Trans World Airlines and the L-1011
 
SCQ83
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Tue Dec 16, 2014 3:42 pm

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 29):
There are a few routes to Germany from BSL, all served by U2:

- BSL-SXF
- BSL-HAM
- BSL-DRS

In the end of 2012, I flew BSL-DUS once with U2.

The point is that BSL is easily reached from Freiburg (about one hour by bus). BSL is sort of a German airport in this regard. The plus side is that between BSL and Germany, there are no taxes. Any line from QFB to another German city would be dead in the water.

I know all that... that is why I mentioned BSL.

And now that Ryanair started flights to BSL, I think that flights to HAM (they also fly there now), SXF, BRE, CGN (new base), LEJ or NRN could work, at least to bother easyJet a bit.

And bear in mind Eurowings is starting its very own base soon, so they will likely fly to some German destinations.

A bloodbath with easyJet and Eurowings? Ryanair will love that  
 
r2rho
Posts: 3096
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RE: Ryanair/easyjet And The German Domestic Market

Sat Dec 20, 2014 3:22 pm

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 33):
But it is still good enough to bring almost every big city pair to the magic 4 hour line and that people start prefering rail over wings at that point is just an objective reality. By 2020 i am afraid HAM-STR and STR-BER will be the only major routes where HSR won´t be at or below that line. And weather you like it or not, that is when regional flying disappears.

HAM-MUC (or HAM to anywhere south of FRA) will still be above that magic line, and even MUC-BER will be slightly above it (IMO they should have built Nuernberg-Bamberg and Leipzig-Berlin for 250km/h rather than 200 to bring it consistently under the 4hr line). So as I posted above, HAM, MUC, STR and BER will still remain the four cities where domestic flying is viable due to rail being uncompetitive in terms of time to any destination on the other half of the country. Except for Stuttgart21, I am not aware of any HSR projects that will change that in the mid term.

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 33):
Actually its embarrassing how little return Deutsche Bahn gets from his high speed trackage,curtesy of tons of "Langsamfahrstellen", where even an ICE tools around at 60km/h.

Indeed, there are too ICE trains running behind regional trains on overcongested upgraded lines, more dedicated HSR lines are needed.

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