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enilria
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Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Mon Dec 15, 2014 11:39 pm

FAQ

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares what is for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. I remove the schedule adds if I see them and show a year over year (YOY) comparison if I notice them.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard. This causes flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

3M FLL-ELH MAR 1.5>1.7 APR 1.6>1.7 MAY 1.6>1.7 JUN 1.5>1.7 AUG 1.6>1.8
3M FLL-FPO FEB 2.0>3 MAR 2>3 APR 2>3 MAY 2>3 JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
3M JAX-MHH MAR 0.1>0.3 APR 0.1>0.3 MAY 0.2>0.3 JUN 0.1>0.3 JUL 0.1>0.3 AUG 0.2>0.3
*3M MCO-ELH FEB 0>0.1 MAR 0>0.1 APR 0>0.1 MAY 0>0.2 JUN 0>0.1 JUL 0>0.1 AUG 0>0.2
*3M MCO-FPO FEB 0>0.1 MAR 0>0.1 APR 0>0.1 MAY 0>0.2 JUN 0>0.1 JUL 0>0.1 AUG 0>0.2
*3M TPA-MHH FEB 0>0.2 MAR 0>0.3 APR 0>0.3 MAY 0>0.3 JUN 0>0.3 JUL 0>0.3 AUG 0>0.3

Hmm...
*AA ATL-LGA APR 4>5 MAY 4>5 JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5
AA BDL-PIT MAR 0>3 APR 0>3 MAY 0>3 JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3
*AA CLE-LGA APR 0>3 MAY 0>3 JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3
*AA LGA-LIT APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0
AA LGA-ORF APR 2>3 MAY 2>3 JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
*AA LGA-SDF APR 3>0 MAY 3>0 JUN 3>0 JUL 3>0 AUG 3>0
*AA LGA-TYS APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0
AA PHX-EWR MAR 1.0>0.2
AA PIT-RDU MAR 0>3 APR 0>3 MAY 0>3 JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3
AA PIT-STL MAR 0>1.8 APR 0>3 MAY 0>3 JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3

AC AUS-YYZ JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0

AF MIA-PAP JUL 0.7>0.9 AUG 0.7>1.0

AV MCO-SJO JAN 0>0.1

*B6 BOS-CLE MAY 0>2 JUN 0>2 JUL 0>2 AUG 0>2

BR IAH-TPE JUN 0>0.2 JUL 0>0.5 AUG 0>0.6

CA IAH-PEK FEB 0.7>0.6
CA LAX-PEK MAY 2>3 JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3

DL ALB-MSP JAN 0.7>0.1 FEB 0.7>0.4
DL ATL-AVL JUN 6>8 JUL 6>8 AUG 6>7
DL ATL-BHM JUN 10>11 JUL 10>11 AUG 10>11
DL ATL-BNA JUN 10>11 JUL 10>11 AUG 10>11
*DL ATL-BZN JUN 0.4>0.2 JUL 1.0>0.4 AUG 1.0>0.5
DL ATL-CHS JUN 10>11 JUL 10>11 AUG 10>11
DL ATL-CMH JUN 8>9 JUL 8>9 AUG 8>9
DL ATL-EWN JUL 3>1.9
DL ATL-HSV JUN 7>9 JUL 7>9 AUG 7>9
DL ATL-IAH APR 10>9 MAY 10>9 JUN 10>9 JUL 10>9 AUG 10>9
DL ATL-ICT JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3
DL ATL-IND JUN 8>9 JUL 8>9 AUG 8>9
*DL ATL-JAC JUN 0.6>0.4 JUL 1.0>0.4 AUG 1.0>0.5
DL ATL-JAN JUN 7>8 JUL 7>8 AUG 7>8
DL ATL-LIT JUL 6>7 AUG 6>7
DL ATL-MHT JUN 1.9>1.0 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 2>1.0
DL ATL-MKE APR 8>7 MAY 8>7 JUN 8>7 JUL 8>7 AUG 8>7
DL ATL-OKC JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6
DL ATL-PHF MAY 6>4 JUN 6>4 JUL 6>4 AUG 6>4
DL ATL-PHL MAR 11>12
DL ATL-PIT JUN 8>9 JUL 8>9 AUG 8>9
DL ATL-RIC JUN 8>9 JUL 8>9 AUG 8>9
DL ATL-RSW MAY 9>10 JUN 8>10 JUL 8>10 AUG 8>10
DL ATL-SAV JUN 10>11 JUL 10>11
DL ATL-SJC JUL 0.9>1.9 AUG 0.8>1.8
DL ATL-TRI JUN 6>7 JUL 6>7
DL AZO-MSP JUN 1.8>1.0 JUL 1.9>1.0 AUG 1.8>1.0
DL BIS-MSP JUN 7>8 JUL 7>8
DL BNA-MSP MAY 5>4
DL CMH-MSP JUL 6>5
DL CVG-BDL JAN 1.9>1.2
DL CVG-BWI APR 3>1.8
More cuts in CVG
*DL CVG-CLT MAR 1.8>3 APR 0.9>3 MAY 0.8>3 JUN 1.5>3 JUL 1.7>3 AUG 1.7>3
*DL CVG-JAX FEB 0.8>0 MAR 0.9>0 APR 0.8>0 MAY 0.8>0 JUN 0.9>0 JUL 0.9>0 AUG 0.8>0
DL CVG-MCI JAN 1.8>1.1
DL CVG-MCO JUL 2>1.1 AUG 2>1.2
DL CVG-MKE JAN 1.7>1.2
DL CVG-MSP JUN 7>6 JUL 7>6 AUG 7>6
*DL CVG-MSY JAN 0.7>0 FEB 0.8>0 MAR 0.9>0 APR 0.8>0 MAY 0.8>0 JUN 0.9>0 JUL 0.9>0 AUG 0.8>0
DL CVG-PHL APR 3>4 JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
*DL CVG-PIT JUN 3>1.7 JUL 3>1.7 AUG 3>1.7
DL CVG-RDU JAN 3>1.5 MAR 1.7>3
*DL CVG-RSW MAY 1.0>0.2 JUN 1.0>0.1 JUL 1.0>0.1 AUG 1.0>0.2
*DL CVG-SAN JUN 0.8>0 JUL 0.9>0
DL DLH-MSP JUN 6>5 JUL 6>5
DL DSM-MSP JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6
DL DTW-ALB JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4
*DL DTW-AVL MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0
DL DTW-AZO JUN 6>5 JUL 6>5 AUG 6>5
DL DTW-BGM AUG 3>1.7
DL DTW-BGR JUN 3>1.9 JUL 4>1.9 AUG 4>1.8
DL DTW-BMI JUN 1.5>0.9 JUL 1.6>0.9 AUG 1.5>0.8
DL DTW-BTV MAR 1.9>3 APR 1.9>3 MAY 1.8>3
DL DTW-CVG APR 4>5 MAY 4>5
DL DTW-DAY APR 4>3 JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3
DL DTW-DEN JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
*DL DTW-DLH JUN 0.8>0 JUL 0.9>0 AUG 0.8>0
DL DTW-ERI APR 4>3 MAY 4>3 JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3
DL DTW-EWR JUN 6>7 JUL 6>8 AUG 6>7
DL DTW-GRB JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3
DL DTW-IAD MAR 3>4
DL DTW-LAN JUN 6>5 JUL 6>5 AUG 6>5
DL DTW-LEX JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4
*DL DTW-LSE JUN 0.8>0 JUL 0.9>0 AUG 0.8>0
DL DTW-MBS JUL 6>5 AUG 6>5
DL DTW-MHT JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3
DL DTW-MSN JUL 7>6 AUG 7>6
DL DTW-OKC MAY 3>1.8 JUN 3>1.7 JUL 3>1.7
DL DTW-PHL JUN 6>7 JUL 6>7
DL DTW-PIA JUN 3>1.9 JUL 3>1.9 AUG 3>1.8
DL DTW-PVD JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3
DL DTW-RIC JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3
DL DTW-SWF JAN 3>1.9 FEB 3>1.7 MAR 3>1.9 APR 3>1.9 MAY 3>1.8 JUN 3>1.9 JUL 3>1.9 AUG 3>1.8
DL DTW-SYR JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4
*DL DTW-YHZ JUN 0.9>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0
DL DTW-YOW JUN 3>2 JUL 3>2
DL DTW-YUL MAR 4>3 APR 5>3 MAY 5>3 JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4
DL DTW-YYZ JUL 7>5 AUG 7>5
DL GRR-MSP JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6
DL JFK-ACK JUN 3>1.8 JUL 3>2 AUG 3>2
*DL JFK-BNA MAY 0.8>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0
DL JFK-BOS APR 6>7 MAY 6>7 JUL 6>8 AUG 6>8
DL JFK-CLE JUL 3>2
*DL JFK-CLT JAN 1.0>0.1 FEB 1.0>0
DL JFK-CMH MAR 1.9>3 APR 1.8>3 MAY 1.8>3 JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
DL JFK-CVG JUN 1.9>1.0 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 2>1.0
DL JFK-IAD JUL 3>4
*DL JFK-IND JAN 1.0>0.1 FEB 1.0>0.6
*DL JFK-MAN JUN 0>1.0
DL JFK-MVY JUN 1.9>1.3 JUL 2>1.3 AUG 2>1.3
*DL JFK-ORF MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
DL JFK-PHL MAR 2>3 APR 1.9>3 MAY 2>3 JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
DL JFK-RIC JAN 3>1.8
DL JFK-SAN JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3
*DL JFK-STL MAY 0.8>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0
DL JFK-YUL MAR 1.0>2 APR 1.7>3 MAY 2>3 JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
DL LAX-CUN JUN 1.0>1.3 JUL 1.0>1.3 AUG 1.0>1.3
DL LGA-AVL JUN 0.9>0.3 JUL 1.0>0.3 AUG 1.0>0.3
DL LGA-BUF APR 7>6 MAY 7>6 JUL 7>6 AUG 7>6
DL MCO-MSP JUL 4>3
DL MEM-MCO JAN 1.0>0.7
*DL MEM-ORD JAN 1.7>0.1 FEB 3>0.0 MAR 3>0 APR 3>0 MAY 3>0 JUN 3>0 JUL 3>0 AUG 3>0
DL MIA-DTW JUN 1.9>1.2 JUL 1.9>1.1 AUG 1.8>1.1
DL MOT-MSP JUN 6>7 JUL 6>7
DL MSP-MSY JUN 1.9>1.1 JUL 1.9>1.0 AUG 1.8>1.0
DL MSP-PHL JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5
DL MSP-PIT JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5
*DL MSP-PVD JUN 0.8>0 JUL 0.9>0 AUG 0.9>0
DL MSP-TUL JUN 3>2.0 JUL 3>2
DL MSP-YYZ JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4
DL SLC-ATL JUN 8>9 JUL 8>9
DL SLC-AUS JUL 3>2 AUG 3>2
DL SLC-IDA APR 5>4 MAY 5>4
DL SLC-MCI MAY 3>1.9 JUN 3>2 JUL 3>2 AUG 3>2
DL SLC-MCO MAY 2.0>3 JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
DL SLC-SUN JUL 3>2 AUG 3>2
DL SLC-YVR MAR 1.1>0.8 APR 1.7>1.2
DL SLC-YYC MAR 1.5>1.0
*DL TPA-CUN MAY 0>0.2

F9 ATL-CLE MAR 1.0>0.5 APR 1.0>0.6
*F9 DEN-LGA APR 0.0>0.8
*F9 ORD-PVR MAY 0.1>0 JUN 0.2>0.0

MU HNL-PVG JUL 0.6>0.9 AUG 0.5>1.0
MU LAX-PVG JUN 1.0>1.2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2

MW HNL-JHM JAN 7>8 FEB 7>8 MAR 7>8 APR 7>8 MAY 0>8
MW HNL-MKK MAY 0>11
MW HNM-JHM MAY 0>1.0
MW HNM-OGG MAY 0>2
MW JHM-JRF JAN 2>1.1 FEB 2>1.0 MAR 2>1.0 APR 2>1.0 MAY 0>1.0
MW JHM-KOA MAY 0>5
MW JHM-MKK JAN 1.0>1.8 FEB 1.0>1.9 MAR 1.0>1.8 APR 1.0>1.9 MAY 0>1.8
MW JHM-OGG MAY 0>1.0
MW JRF-MKK MAY 0>3
MW KOA-OGG JAN 12>13 FEB 12>13 MAR 12>13 APR 12>13 MAY 0>13
MW MKK-OGG MAY 0>9
MW MUE-OGG MAY 0>2

NZ HNL-AKL JUL 0.6>0.7

SY RSW-SJU MAY 0.2>0.3

TCX JFK-MAN MAY 0>0.4
TCX LAS-MAN APR 0>0.1 MAY 0>0.6
TCX MCO-GLA MAY 0>0.3
TCX MCO-MAN APR 0>0.5 MAY 0>0.5
TCX MIA-MAN MAY 0>0.3

TP MIA-LIS JUL 1.0>0.8 AUG 1.0>0.9

TS MCO-YQM FEB 0.1>0.0

??? Why bother?
*UA BOS-CLE APR 4>5 MAY 4>5 JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5
UA CLE-LGA APR 7>6 MAY 7>6 JUN 7>6 JUL 7>6 AUG 7>6
UA DEN-SGU MAR 1.0>1.9
UA DEN-YYC MAR 5>4
UA EWR-MKE MAR 3>4
UA IAD-PVD MAR 1.9>1.3
UA IAH-DAL FEB 11>7 MAR 11>7 APR 12>7 MAY 12>7 JUN 12>7 JUL 12>7 AUG 12>7
UA IAH-DGO FEB 0.3>0.1 MAR 0.3>0.1 APR 0.3>0.1
UA IAH-LIR MAY 1.4>1.3
UA IAH-LOS MAY 0.9>1.0 JUN 0.8>1.0 JUL 0.9>1.0 AUG 0.9>1.0
UA IAH-MTY JUN 9>8 JUL 9>8
UA IAH-PSP MAY 1.0>0.2
UA IAH-PTY APR 3>2
UA IAH-RTB APR 1.1>1.0
UA LAX-MRY MAR 3>4
UA ORD-AVL APR 2>3 MAY 2>3 JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
UA ORD-BOI APR 1.8>1.0
UA ORD-BTV APR 4>3
UA ORD-CLT APR 5>6 MAY 5>6 JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6
UA ORD-DAY APR 7>6
UA ORD-IAH APR 12>13 MAY 12>13 JUN 12>13 JUL 12>13 AUG 12>13
UA SFO-CTU JUN 0.4>1.0 JUL 0.4>1.0 AUG 0.5>1.0
UA SFO-IAH MAR 9>10
UA SFO-ONT MAR 7>8
UA SFO-PVG MAY 1.0>1.8 JUN 1.0>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2
UA SFO-SMF MAR 7>6

*US BOS-PUJ JUN 0>0.1 JUL 0>0.1
US CLT-BDA JUL 0.9>0.3 AUG 0.5>0.2
US CLT-BGI JUL 0.3>0.1
US CLT-BZE APR 0.3>0.1
US CLT-CUN APR 4>3
US CLT-GCM APR 1.9>2 MAY 1.3>1.5
US CLT-HHH MAR 6>5
US Top
 
User avatar
enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 9615
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Mon Dec 15, 2014 11:41 pm

US CLT-JFK MAR 6>5
US CLT-MEX APR 0.8>1.0
US CLT-NAS JUL 3>4
US CLT-PLS MAY 1.2>1.4
US CLT-SXM MAY 1.7>1.5 JUN 2>1.9 AUG 1.5>1.4
US CLT-UVF JUN 0.3>0.8 JUL 0.3>0.8 AUG 0.2>0.5
*US DAY-LGA APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0
US DCA-MIA MAR 0.9>0.1
US DCA-NAS APR 0.7>0.4 MAY 0.9>0.5 JUL 0.3>1.0 AUG 0.3>0.7
US DTW-MIA MAR 0.9>0.1
US IAH-MIA MAR 0.9>0.1
US ILM-LGA APR 1.0>2 MAY 1.0>2 JUN 1.0>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2
US MIA-MSY MAR 0.9>0.1
US MIA-RDU MAR 0.9>0.1
US MIA-TPA MAR 1.7>0.2
US PHL-GCM MAY 0.2>0.0 JUL 0.3>0.1
US PHL-MBJ JUN 2.0>3 JUL 2>3
US PHL-NAS MAY 0.8>1.1
US PHL-PUJ APR 1.5>2
US PHL-SDQ JUL 0.1>0.3
US PHL-SJU APR 5>4
US PHX-CUN APR 1.3>2 MAY 1.3>1.9 JUN 1.1>2 JUL 1.1>2 AUG 1.1>1.5
US PHX-EWR APR 2>3 MAY 2>3 JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
US PHX-GDL APR 3>2 MAY 3>2
US PHX-JFK MAR 4>3
US PHX-MZT JUL 1.1>1.3
US PHX-PVR AUG 1.7>2
US PHX-ZIH APR 0.3>0.1

UX JFK-MAD MAY 0.6>0.7 JUN 0.7>0.8 JUL 0.8>1.0 AUG 0.9>1.0
 
Legend757
Posts: 90
Joined: Tue Aug 05, 2014 6:59 pm

RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Mon Dec 15, 2014 11:53 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*AA LGA-LIT
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*AA LGA-SDF
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*AA LGA-TYS
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL DTW-AVL
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL DTW-DLH
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL JFK-BNA

Ouch. I hate to see these small/medium airports (and others like them) take so many blows.
 
jetblue1965
Posts: 5050
Joined: Wed Mar 19, 2014 1:28 pm

RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Mon Dec 15, 2014 11:59 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA IAH-DAL FEB 11>7 MAR 11>7 APR 12>7 MAY 12>7 JUN 12>7 JUL 12>7 AUG 12>7

So what now ? DL is back in DAL ? Or UA actually has a plan (like adding EWR or SFO) for those actually gate times ?
 
NolaMD88fan
Posts: 1383
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2014 4:07 am

RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 12:01 am

Quote:
*DL CVG-MSY JAN 0.7>0 FEB 0.8>0 MAR 0.9>0 APR 0.8>0 MAY 0.8>0 JUN 0.9>0 JUL 0.9>0 AUG 0.8>0

Sucks to see this route being cut. The loads and yields have always been good on this route. I also see other routes getting cut, so I wonder if this is the beginning of the end for the CVG "hub". I wonder if G4 is add some additional frequency on this route now.
 
SunsetLimited
Posts: 852
Joined: Thu Oct 02, 2014 6:20 pm

RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 12:02 am

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL CVG-MSY JAN 0.7>0 FEB 0.8>0 MAR 0.9>0 APR 0.8>0 MAY 0.8>0 JUN 0.9>0 JUL 0.9>0 AUG 0.8>0

I suppose the new G4 service in this market spelled the end for this one.

My final flight on a 727 not long before DL retired them was CVG-MSY.
Spread hope like fire.
 
mikesairways
Posts: 664
Joined: Tue Oct 07, 2003 1:47 am

RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 12:04 am

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DL ATL-SJC JUL 0.9>1.9 AUG 0.8>1.8

I think last year they did the same thing but the extra section never materialized.

I did random dates in July and it shows:

DL2398 ATL - SJC dep 925 Arr 1120 738 (return flight leaves at 1240PM)
DL1684 ATL - SJC dep 720PM arr 9:37PM 757 (returns as atl as redeye)

One of these flights can be yours for the low low price of just $1100!
The red zone is for the immediate loading and unloading of passengers only, there is no stopping in the white zone...(Ai
 
seatback
Posts: 599
Joined: Thu Mar 28, 2002 3:00 am

RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 12:06 am

What's up with AA in PIT...RDU, STL, BDL?
 
User avatar
adamh8297
Posts: 3091
Joined: Sat Dec 15, 2012 6:28 pm

RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 12:11 am

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*US BOS-PUJ JUN 0>0.1 JUL 0>0.1

If you have a spare plane on Saturday may as well send it somewhere.

This weekly flight looks to run through August 15.
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN

2019: CX BOS-HKG, WE HKG-HKT, CA HKT-PEK-EWR, B6 EWR-BOS
 
mikesairways
Posts: 664
Joined: Tue Oct 07, 2003 1:47 am

RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 12:11 am

Quoting seatback (Reply 7):
What's up with AA in PIT...RDU, STL, BDL?

Probably swapping metal
The red zone is for the immediate loading and unloading of passengers only, there is no stopping in the white zone...(Ai
 
jetblue1965
Posts: 5050
Joined: Wed Mar 19, 2014 1:28 pm

RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 12:14 am

Quoting seatback (Reply 7):
What's up with AA in PIT...RDU, STL, BDL?

trying to re-live the glory good ole' days when US Air east had a hub there =p
 
MSPNWA
Posts: 3413
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 2:48 am

RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 12:24 am

The elimination of 50 seaters really shows this week. DTW, JFK, and CVG are really hit hard by DL. I expected many smaller markets to lose service, but it's sad to see. In an era of record profits it's disturbing. Airlines have too much market power.
 
User avatar
enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 9615
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 12:44 am

Quoting Legend757 (Reply 2):
Ouch. I hate to see these small/medium airports (and others like them) take so many blows.

Well with $100 oil this was bound to happen...oh yeah...maybe not...

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 3):
So what now ? DL is back in DAL ? Or UA actually has a plan (like adding EWR or SFO) for those actually gate times

We saw that start last week. It seems like DL threatened them and they backed down.

Quoting NolaMD88fan (Reply 4):
Sucks to see this route being cut.

They have been monkeying with CVG lately. It seems sure we will see another round ofcuts just in time for cheap fuel.

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 11):
The elimination of 50 seaters really shows this week. DTW, JFK, and CVG are really hit hard by DL.

...and the diversion of resources/ASMs to SEA.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 12:54 am

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 3):

Good catch! That is very curious as the Dallas Mayor's office said they would be watching DAL, espically UA, to make sure all gates were being used as much as reasonably possible and that no one was gate sitting. To be sure UA isn't going to jump into the SFO mix with VX and WN when they have the service at DFW. EWR and ORD would make sense from a business customer experience which is a big focus for DAL service.
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 1:01 am

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):


*DL JFK-STL MAY 0.8>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0

Does AA still operate this or is STL now without a JFK link?
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 1:08 am

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 11):
In an era of record profits it's disturbing. Airlines have too much market power.

You could look at it another way and say that they are preparing well in advance for another downturn, too.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 1:25 am

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Hmm...
*AA ATL-LGA APR 4>5 MAY 4>5 JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5
AA BDL-PIT MAR 0>3 APR 0>3 MAY 0>3 JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3
*AA CLE-LGA APR 0>3 MAY 0>3 JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3
*AA LGA-LIT APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0
AA LGA-ORF APR 2>3 MAY 2>3 JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3

Routes like LGA-LIT are likely better flowed via CLT with the US hub now. The ATL add, as well as CLE , ORF etc may indicate they think they've found better utilization for both the slots and the planes.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 1:27 am

Would love to see DAL-ORD service! We have mega DFW-ORD service, new DAL-MDW service, but now DAL-ORD service or DFW-MDW (RJ route at best).
 
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 1:39 am

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL ATL-BZN JUN 0.4>0.2 JUL 1.0>0.4 AUG 1.0>0.5
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL ATL-JAC JUN 0.6>0.4 JUL 1.0>0.4 AUG 1.0>0.5

What's up with these being cut back seemingly so early? I was hoping to use one or both of these flights next summer.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 1:41 am

Quoting PHLwok (Reply 16):
Routes like LGA-LIT are likely better flowed via CLT with the US hub now. The ATL add, as well as CLE , ORF etc may indicate they think they've found better utilization for both the slots and the planes.

It appears to represent somewhat of a reversal from AA's original strategy following the LGA slot divestiture to utilize some of the remaining LGA slots in smaller, relatively less competitive (or at least less dominated by rivals) markets. Personally, I'm happy to see ATL and CLE return - both are large O&D markets that AA should be able to make work. The LGA schedule is also seeing other interesting schedule changes next year, including a fairly substantial schedule change to LGA-YYZ including, unfortunately, a much later first flight of the morning out of LGA and much earlier last flight of the night out of YYZ.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 1:46 am

Quoting mikesairways (Reply 9):
Quoting seatback (Reply 7):
What's up with AA in PIT...RDU, STL, BDL?

Probably swapping metal

Negative. That's at-risk AX flying (that AX has flown basically unchanged for 7 years or so). Presumably, it's switching to the AA code from US.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL JFK-BNA MAY 0.8>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0
*DL JFK-CLT JAN 1.0>0.1 FEB 1.0>0
*DL JFK-IND JAN 1.0>0.1 FEB 1.0>0.6
*DL JFK-STL MAY 0.8>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0

I wonder whether these cuts are part of the DL emphasis on keeping folks on their metal to cross the oceans (like the recent change to EQMs on partner flights). If TATL passengers have to head to ATL or DTW, they are much more likely to cross the pond on DL metal.
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 1:46 am

Quoting seatback (Reply 7):

What's up with AA in PIT...RDU, STL, BDL?

Lets not forget who they just merged with.... its just a shifting of the code, US still flew these!
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 1:59 am

Quoting PHLwok (Reply 16):
The ATL add, as well as CLE , ORF etc may indicate they think they've found better utilization for both the slots and the planes.
Quoting commavia (Reply 19):
It appears to represent somewhat of a reversal from AA's original strategy following the LGA slot divestiture to utilize some of the remaining LGA slots in smaller, relatively less competitive

It smells of slot-sitting to me. CLE-LGA may make some sense, but I don't know what AA's long-term plan for LGA really is. I'm not sure all these routes make any sense for them any more. DL must be crushing them with a now well-oiled hub and spoke connecting hub. When DL says that LGA is now "fully allocated profitable for the first time" I think we know where those dollars came from...AA.

I still think that ultimately AA unloads their p2p slot portfolio at LGA. To B6 or WN I'd suspect. DL if the DOJ just decides to shut down operations.
Quoting AVLAirlineFreq (Reply 18):
What's up with these being cut back seemingly so early? I was hoping to use one or both of these flights next summer.
Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 20):
I wonder whether these cuts are part of the DL emphasis on keeping folks on their metal to cross the oceans (like the recent change to EQMs on partner flights). If TATL passengers have to head to ATL or DTW, they are much more likely to cross the pond on DL metal.

I'm sure we will be told this has something to do with the ZW mess, but I think as we are seeing in CVG, their is some intent in the cuts. It's truly amazing we are talking about broad flight cuts with $57 oil, record profits, and a good economy.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 2:02 am

Isn't it flat or a net gain for Delta at JFK though? It seems for every flight cut another was added

BNA JFK is crazy on delta. Starts and ends frequently. Ditto STL


Only route that is surprising is CLT


But it is now hub to hub on AA with lots of mainline lift




Yea LGA CLE!!!
 
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 2:03 am

Quoting enilria (Reply 22):

PMUS was the master at LGA squatting... just look at how many PHL-LGA services they ran ... they make UA's IAH-DAL look like child's play in comparison
 
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 2:28 am

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 24):
PMUS was the master at LGA squatting... just look at how many PHL-LGA services they ran ... they make UA's IAH-DAL look like child's play in comparison

100% agreed, but US did it from a dominant market position to protect the good stuff. Not sure what AA is protecting.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 2:38 am

Quoting enilria (Reply 22):
I still think that ultimately AA unloads their p2p slot portfolio at LGA. To B6 or WN I'd suspect.

Pretty good chance of that happening close to never.

CLELGA may be coming back for the same reason ATLLGA's discontinuation didn't last: it got corporate NYC fliers really upset.

I think US was very shortsighted when they came in played around with AA's LaGuardia slots, and now is realizing it messed up.

[Edited 2014-12-15 18:39:23]
a.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 2:55 am

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL CVG-SAN JUN 0.8>0 JUL 0.9>0

Sorry to see this route finally get the axe. Not real surprised, just sorry. (I'm amazed that it lasted as long as it did; O&D traffic averages ~65 PDEW.)

bb
 
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 2:57 am

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DL ATL-HSV JUN 7>9 JUL 7>9 AUG 7>9

When I saw this update, I was sure that CR7 or CR9 service would be returning to HSV for the summer. But it looks like DL is staying with all mainline aircraft for HSV-ATL.

enilria - Thanks for the report!

David
 
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 3:03 am

Disappointing to see LGA-LIT get the axe but not that surprised. It's a 'nice to have' route but not that vital. The only reason XNA is hanging on is because of the business traffic. I don't know what was keeping LIT connected.
Next up: XNA-ATL-IAH-MSP-XNA
 
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 3:28 am

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*AA CLE-LGA APR 0>3 MAY 0>3 JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3
Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 26):
CLELGA may be coming back for the same reason ATLLGA's discontinuation didn't last: it got corporate NYC fliers really upset.
Quoting enilria (Reply 22):
It smells of slot-sitting to me. CLE-LGA may make some sense, but I don't know what AA's long-term plan for LGA really is. I'm not sure all these routes make any sense for them any more. DL must be crushing them with a now well-oiled hub and spoke connecting hub. When DL says that LGA is now "fully allocated profitable for the first time" I think we know where those dollars came from...AA.

FINALLY it's back!!!!! after having to connect in PHL/CLT or ORD glad to see the return of my most traveled route.
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 3:48 am

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 20):
Quoting mikesairways (Reply 9):
Quoting seatback (Reply 7):
What's up with AA in PIT...RDU, STL, BDL?

Probably swapping metal

Negative. That's at-risk AX flying (that AX has flown basically unchanged for 7 years or so). Presumably, it's switching to the AA code from US.

At risk flying that AX/LOF has done quite successfully for some time. It's good to see them having confidence in these markets.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 4:01 am

Quoting commavia (Reply 19):
It appears to represent somewhat of a reversal from AA's original strategy following the LGA slot divestiture to utilize some of the remaining LGA slots in smaller, relatively less competitive (or at least less dominated by rivals) markets. Personally, I'm happy to see ATL and CLE return - both are large O&D markets that AA should be able to make work.

I think this indeed an interesting shift, but the combined AA/US in NYC likely gives a significantly larger customer base for them to draw from and I suspect you're right that they'll get it right, albeit after some tinkering. The slot swap with DL for US was more about consolidating power in DCA and for DL, expanding NYC. Interestingly, the AA/US merger now claws the new AA back quite a bit into LGA, both with what AA brought to the table as well as some flexibility with some of the slots US was sitting on. And I doubt we've seen the full potential that AA can do with LGA either yet.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 4:13 am

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 26):
Pretty good chance of that happening close to never.
Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 26):
I think US was very shortsighted when they came in played around with AA's LaGuardia slots, and now is realizing it messed up.

But you must agree that DL's just quoted massive upswing in LGA profitability came at AA's expense? I don't doubt it. DL has an insurmountable lead in LGA and AA just can't compete with it. DL is already loading up on 717s at LGA and AA will still be flying 50 seaters. It'll all be over at that point in terms of product. It's already headed that way.

It's DCA all over again when US was already big and DL was the AA of LGA. Even though US was much weaker nationally than DL, they just had the economies of scale at DCA to win.

Sure AA can just hang around in LGA flying what is essentially slot sitting that loses money, but not losing enough to do any real damage to AA. I'm just not sure there's any reason to stick with it and DP already closed it once before. I'm not even sure it will do much for the corporate market once DL has a clear product advantage. New Yorkers HATE 50 seat RJs. Call it a sense of entitlement if you wish, but New Yorkers I know consider it a joke to live in the biggest city in the USA and be flying puddle jumpers. I think DL crushes AA in LGA.

LGA-CMH in 2Q is a great example of the way things are headed: AA Fare $228; DL $281 and that is a market where neither is dominant...maybe AA should be if you trace all the way back to HP's old hub there.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 1:23 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 22):
I'm sure we will be told this has something to do with the ZW mess, but I think as we are seeing in CVG, their is some intent in the cuts. It's truly amazing we are talking about broad flight cuts with $57 oil, record profits, and a good economy.

First of all, there is a massive shift going on now for 2015, as was expected, when the bulk of the 50 seater reductions was going to start having a material effect on the core of the network. Secondary/Hub-over flying and long-and-thin are being cut right and left.

There has been some change of decisions, with the whole last minute DL-ZW deal falling through, now 9E likely to keep the planes and attempt to staff them, plus back-fill from OO, EV, and even DL mainline.

I do caution, like I do every week lately is that there are a lot of week-to-week changing going on now as they are starting to overhaul the spring and summer schedule. Numerous changes in operating carriers and the changes are not always fluid. For the past few weeks there are about 5-10 changes showing up one week, that are being subsequently reversed in the following weeks' report. I don't know the mechanics of the data feed to OAG, but there is some timing or data issues in play. The biggest issue was when the loaded all of the ZW flights starting in Feb/Mar, but when they pulled them and switched operating carrier, they disappeared for a week.

For now, we all can agree that DL is overhauling their schedule, and let's all see where the dust settles in mid/late January before totally freaking out about all the cuts.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DL ATL-AVL JUN 6>8 JUL 6>8 AUG 6>7
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL DTW-AVL MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0

Appears that DL isn't going to fly DTW-AVL, instead feed over ATL. Similar to markets like ROA, CHO, CRW.
However, DTW-GSP operates multiple times per day nonstop, which gives some nearby nonstop service.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DL DTW-BTV MAR 1.9>3 APR 1.9>3 MAY 1.8>3

This is the reserve of a ZW cut from 1-2 weeks ago (see my comment above about timing/data filing)

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL CVG-CLT MAR 1.8>3 APR 0.9>3 MAY 0.8>3 JUN 1.5>3 JUL 1.7>3 AUG 1.7>3
*DL CVG-JAX FEB 0.8>0 MAR 0.9>0 APR 0.8>0 MAY 0.8>0 JUN 0.9>0 JUL 0.9>0 AUG 0.8>0
DL CVG-MCI JAN 1.8>1.1
DL CVG-MCO JUL 2>1.1 AUG 2>1.2
DL CVG-MKE JAN 1.7>1.2
DL CVG-MSP JUN 7>6 JUL 7>6 AUG 7>6
*DL CVG-MSY JAN 0.7>0 FEB 0.8>0 MAR 0.9>0 APR 0.8>0 MAY 0.8>0 JUN 0.9>0 JUL 0.9>0 AUG 0.8>0
DL CVG-PHL APR 3>4 JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
*DL CVG-PIT JUN 3>1.7 JUL 3>1.7 AUG 3>1.7
DL CVG-RDU JAN 3>1.5 MAR 1.7>3
*DL CVG-RSW MAY 1.0>0.2 JUN 1.0>0.1 JUL 1.0>0.1 AUG 1.0>0.2
*DL CVG-SAN JUN 0.8>0 JUL 0.9>0
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
More cuts in CVG
*DL CVG-CLT MAR 1.8>3 APR 0.9>3 MAY 0.8>3 JUN 1.5>3 JUL 1.7>3 AUG 1.7>3
*DL CVG-JAX FEB 0.8>0 MAR 0.9>0 APR 0.8>0 MAY 0.8>0 JUN 0.9>0 JUL 0.9>0 AUG 0.8>0
DL CVG-MCI JAN 1.8>1.1
DL CVG-MCO JUL 2>1.1 AUG 2>1.2
DL CVG-MKE JAN 1.7>1.2
DL CVG-MSP JUN 7>6 JUL 7>6 AUG 7>6
*DL CVG-MSY JAN 0.7>0 FEB 0.8>0 MAR 0.9>0 APR 0.8>0 MAY 0.8>0 JUN 0.9>0 JUL 0.9>0 AUG 0.8>0
DL CVG-PHL APR 3>4 JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
*DL CVG-PIT JUN 3>1.7 JUL 3>1.7 AUG 3>1.7
DL CVG-RDU JAN 3>1.5 MAR 1.7>3
*DL CVG-RSW MAY 1.0>0.2 JUN 1.0>0.1 JUL 1.0>0.1 AUG 1.0>0.2
*DL CVG-SAN JUN 0.8>0 JUL 0.9>0

Some of these CLT, PHL, RDU are the reverse of a ZW cut from 1-2 weeks ago (see my comment above about timing/data filing)
The interesting ones are the mainline reductions - MCO, RSW, SAN

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DL DTW-ERI APR 4>3 MAY 4>3 JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3

Supposedly replacing 2 CRJs with 1 CR9.

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 11):

The elimination of 50 seaters really shows this week. DTW, JFK, and CVG are really hit hard by DL. I expected many smaller markets to lose service, but it's sad to see. In an era of record profits it's disturbing. Airlines have too much market power.
Quoting enilria (Reply 12):
Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 11):
The elimination of 50 seaters really shows this week. DTW, JFK, and CVG are really hit hard by DL.

...and the diversion of resources/ASMs to SEA.

Not denying there are some major shifts in ASMs and cuts out, but it seems like we say that every week in these OAG threads. Yet, somehow places like DTW and JFK still seem to maintain the relative status quo. Everyone jumps from the mountain tops about cuts yet is very quiet about the capacity adds, which right now is all being done at DL through increases gauge and/or increased seats per aircraft.

Sometimes you can't quite see the forest through the trees.

However, I agree the MEM and CVG cuts are real (no surprise) and those are the prime ASMs/assets being redeployed to build SEA.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 1:35 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 33):
But you must agree that DL's just quoted massive upswing in LGA profitability came at AA's expense? I don't doubt it. DL has an insurmountable lead in LGA and AA just can't compete with it. DL is already loading up on 717s at LGA and AA will still be flying 50 seaters. It'll all be over at that point in terms of product. It's already headed that way.

I think that is needlessly hysterical. AA - and every other airline - is/are at a structural disadvantage at LGA versus Delta because of slots. No question about it. That's how it is at every slot controlled airport.

Nonetheless, AA still has a massive slot pool to play with (optimize) at LGA, and I do not share the dramatic negativity about AA's prospects there. AA remains today an enormous competitive force in the NYC market, and I continue to believe that AA has quite an opportunity to leverage that position, and its very strong presence at both LGA and JFK, to build a compelling domestic and international network tailored to the huge local O&D market.

And, to be more specific, I think some of these changes we're seeing starting early next year - reinstating ATL and CLE, cutting smaller markets like SDF - are actually part of that evolution.

Quoting enilria (Reply 33):
Sure AA can just hang around in LGA flying what is essentially slot sitting that loses money, but not losing enough to do any real damage to AA.

How do you know it's slot sitting, and how do you know that some and/or all of it loses and/or will continue to lose money?
 
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 1:52 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 35):
think that is needlessly hysterical. AA - and every other airline - is/are at a structural disadvantage at LGA versus Delta because of slots. No question about it. That's how it is at every slot controlled airport.

Nonetheless, AA still has a massive slot pool to play with (optimize) at LGA, and I do not share the dramatic negativity about AA's prospects there. AA remains today an enormous competitive force in the NYC market, and I continue to believe that AA has quite an opportunity to leverage that position, and its very strong presence at both LGA and JFK, to build a compelling domestic and international network tailored to the huge local O&D market.

Agree. I think its hilarious, when a few posters on a.net start throwing around adjectives like "destroy, crushing, killing, eating their lunch" This isn't like a football game. In the largest air markets in this country, in the current competitive environment, there is an equilibrium where everyone can be successful and even all can be profitable. Sure, we can all cherry-pick whatever data and metrics to support or refute a hypothesis, but the truth is all of the carriers are going to compete in major markets.

This is sort of like the analogy of politics in the United States. With the currently two-party system, in almost every individual election each side already has a lock on about 30-40% of the vote. They battle it out on the margins for the incremental percentage points. This is the same for the competitive environment in places like NYC, LAX, and many other competitive places.

There isn't always winners and losers.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 2:13 pm

Very interesting to see the cuts in JFK DTW CVG MSP I often wonder what that does for the base as a whole. I know they are upgauging to bigger equipment but does less connecting flights mean less passengers connecting in DTW and therefore mainline will eventually shrink there too? Or does it mean the same amount of passengers just with less connecting options?
 
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 2:16 pm

Agreed!!

If you had to be a strong #2 anywhere in the United States, a slot controlled, business market with no prospect of new service is the best place to do it!

This isn't Dallas in 2004 where AA is eating DLs lunch at DFW. This is LGA.

CLE is a needed market to round out their business destinations from NYC.

I believed then, and believe now, that AA cut ATL and CLE to stomp their feet and make a point about slot divestiture. I knew they would be back.

LIT instead of CLE? Surely you Jest!

The game is over and it is time for AA to return to these two markets. In the case of CLE, I believe they served this route since the 60s or 70s.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 2:22 pm

Quoting dtwpilot225 (Reply 37):
Very interesting to see the cuts in JFK DTW CVG MSP I often wonder what that does for the base as a whole. I know they are upgauging to bigger equipment but does less connecting flights mean less passengers connecting in DTW and therefore mainline will eventually shrink there too? Or does it mean the same amount of passengers just with less connecting options?

Let's wait and see how the dust settles in a few months, plus look at other metrics such as seats, equipment type, etc before jumping to any serious death and destruction type comments.

It's well know that DL is across-the-board upgauging the airline, and that capacity will be up 3% in 2015.

Looking at any one week's changes on the average number of departures per day in a given month is very interesting data, however you have to look at everything in totality and also at a point where it isn't just a work-in-progress.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 2:23 pm

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 34):
The interesting ones are the mainline reductions - MCO, RSW, SAN
Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 34):
*DL CVG-MSY JAN 0.7>0 FEB 0.8>0 MAR 0.9>0 APR 0.8>0 MAY 0.8>0 JUN 0.9>0 JUL 0.9>0 AUG 0.8>0
Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 34):
*DL CVG-JAX FEB 0.8>0 MAR 0.9>0 APR 0.8>0 MAY 0.8>0 JUN 0.9>0 JUL 0.9>0 AUG 0.8>0

First, let me say that in terms of the schedule changes by DL I await your comments as they seem to have a level of detail that adds a lot of context.

I'd say JAX and MSY are pretty interesting, however.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 34):
Supposedly replacing 2 CRJs with 1 CR9.

Must be because of the enormous success of Basic Economy in the market. LOL. What an oddball roll-out market.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 34):
Everyone jumps from the mountain tops about cuts yet is very quiet about the capacity adds,

People are quiet about DL's adds in SEA????? Can't agree on that one.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 34):
However, I agree the MEM and CVG cuts are real (no surprise) and those are the prime ASMs/assets being redeployed to build SEA.

I think CVG is a surprise. I've read here endlessly "steady-state", "CVG is profitable", "no need for further cuts". I truly don't remember who posted those comments, but they seemed to be based in some sort of knowledge. This is an interested turn.

Quoting commavia (Reply 35):
I think that is needlessly hysterical. AA - and every other airline - is/are at a structural disadvantage at LGA versus Delta because of slots.

So we agree.

Quoting commavia (Reply 35):
That's how it is at every slot controlled airport.

Only at airports where the govt has allowed one carrier to gain a majority of slots...oh yeah, all of them except JFK (so far).

Quoting commavia (Reply 35):
How do you know it's slot sitting, and how do you know that some and/or all of it loses and/or will continue to lose money?

As Mariner says "a little bird told me", but the data is all there to confirm it at BTS.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 36):
there is an equilibrium where everyone can be successful and even all can be profitable.

OK, but capitalism is about winning. Capitalism is not about just making enough money to not prevent pain for your competitors. Delta knows well that is not the formula. Do you actually think that DL will stop growing in SEA if it hurts AS profits? If so, they need to be told it is already hurting AS.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 36):
There isn't always winners and losers.

Eventually there are. Everything is cyclical. A company is like a person. It has a lifespan. It goes through stages and eventually it dies when those that are younger and more in tune with what people want come along. There are very very few companies that survive forever. DL was in Ch11 not that many years ago and is a NewCo as well.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 2:38 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 40):
First, let me say that in terms of the schedule changes by DL I await your comments as they seem to have a level of detail that adds a lot of context.

I'd say JAX and MSY are pretty interesting, however.

CVG-JAX & MSY were some of the longest, remaining 50 seat RJ flights in the system.
No surprise to see them go, and if they obviously didn't make the bar of success to get up-gauged to 2-class RJs.

Quoting enilria (Reply 40):
Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 34):
Everyone jumps from the mountain tops about cuts yet is very quiet about the capacity adds,

People are quiet about DL's adds in SEA????? Can't agree on that one.

I'm not talking about SEA adds which are all over the place on announced in grand press releases. I'm talking about the minute adds and tweaks here and there. Like how DL has quietly ramped up DTW-Florida capacity for Spring 2015, or while DTW-SFO may only be 3x in March they are all on domestic 763s (instead of smaller gauge aircraft), or how DTW-DEN is increasing to 4x this spring.

A lot of capacity adds are small in nature and don't attract a lot of attention, but they are there, they are real, and add-up over time. Meanwhile 1 random RJ gets cut on a stupid route like CVG-JAX, that probably at best had a 50% load factor most days of the week.

Quoting enilria (Reply 40):
I think CVG is a surprise. I've read here endlessly "steady-state", "CVG is profitable", "no need for further cuts". I truly don't remember who posted those comments, but they seemed to be based in some sort of knowledge. This is an interested turn.
Quoting enilria (Reply 40):
OK, but capitalism is about winning. Capitalism is not about just making enough money to not prevent pain for your competitors. Delta knows well that is not the formula. Do you actually think that DL will stop growing in SEA if it hurts AS profits? If so, they need to be told it is already hurting AS.

No, but at the same time you care about yourself first and only yourself. You want to be better than the competition, but that doesn't always mean bigger/larger or putting them out of business.

Quoting enilria (Reply 40):
Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 36):
There isn't always winners and losers.

Eventually there are. Everything is cyclical. A company is like a person. It has a lifespan. It goes through stages and eventually it dies when those that are younger and more in tune with what people want come along. There are very very few companies that survive forever. DL was in Ch11 not that many years ago and is a NewCo as well.

Mature companies are able to be successful in a competitive environment.
 
bobnwa
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 2:44 pm

Quoting NolaMD88fan (Reply 4):
The loads and yields have always been good on this route

What have the yields been in this market and where do the numbers come from?
 
jetblue1965
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 2:47 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 35):
AA remains today an enormous competitive force in the NYC market, and I continue to believe that AA has quite an opportunity to leverage that position, and its very strong presence at both LGA and JFK, to build a compelling domestic and international network tailored to the huge local O&D market.
Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 38):

If you had to be a strong #2 anywhere in the United States, a slot controlled, business market with no prospect of new service is the best place to do it!

According to the 2013 year-end report by PANYNJ (the shifts have been minor since), UA and DL controls 25% each while AA+US is at 16.5%. Per airport, AA is #2 at LGA (30%, behind DL), #3 at JFK (16.7%, behind DL and B6), #2 at EWR (6.8%, behind UA), and #3 in JFK+LGA+EWR combined (behind both UA and DL).

The only airport AA has a decent presence is LGA. JFK or NYC-wide, I don't see how ~16-17% can be classified as "enormous competitive force". Putting things in perspective, that's roughly the same market share that UA has at LAX, which has been labeled as "dying" and "dehubbing imminent" and "last throes".
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 2:53 pm

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 41):
I'm not talking about SEA adds which are all over the place on announced in grand press releases. I'm talking about the minute adds and tweaks here and there.

Speaking for myself, I don't care about frequency changes of +1 or -1 unless the forebode a bigger strategy like CVG losing its mini-hub status or DL opening a focus city somewhere. I have remarked about DL increasing frequency on SEA-ANC which I think is a significant strategic move. More seasonal flights to Florida from a hub is nice, but it's tactical and not strategic. I care about the strategy, not the tactical changes. Different strokes...

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 41):
No, but at the same time you care about yourself first and only yourself. You want to be better than the competition, but that doesn't always mean bigger/larger or putting them out of business.

Exactly and for somebody to win, somebody must lose. And absent other factors like oil and the economy, for somebody to do better, somebody must do worse. It's all about price, capacity utilization, and market share. Market share is the interesting part. Airlines used to only care about market share. They would loss-lead like crazy to gain it. Then the industry largely stopped doing that except in a few cases. Now market share is important again, but instead of being achieved through expansion it's almost in reverse where you shrink and encourage others to shrink thus maintaining or increasing your market share if the other carrier loses more traffic than you do by shrinking. That's really what DL has been doing for years, essentially shrinking (at least in their core) and maintaining market share (revenue share) thus decreasing their cost while maintaining revenue. We will see if lower oil and domestic capacity growth suit that strategy.

Since thus post is all Delta, I almost posted a thread about how DL is decreasing capacity aggressively in TransPac, while UA is adding it. We are seeing an historical shift from the NW-PA Pacific era whereby UA will be pretty dominant after NRT closes for DL.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 41):
Mature companies are able to be successful in a competitive environment.

For a while...
 
Osubuckeyes
Posts: 1830
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 3:08 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 40):
Must be because of the enormous success of Basic Economy in the market. LOL. What an oddball roll-out market

I'm not sure of the O&D on the route of ERI-DTW, but since it was all 50 seaters they may be trying to isolate the price elasticity of E fares on routes that a main cabin gives you little benefit. Seating on a CR2 pretty much sucks in every seat. So, DL may be looking for, How do people value a seating assignment? Do people really know what they are buying? Can this work on this type of market?

Also keep in mind that area of the country has seen a drastic increase of ULCC traffic. Not necessarily ERI, but in YNG, CLE, and NKs entry into Latrobe. That type of traffic is more likely to be price sensitive to drive a certain distance. My conclusion would be that DL sees something in the market that can give them an insight into the effectiveness of E fares in a different perspective than Hubs-Florida. I also can't believe i wrote two paragraphs about ERI-DTW.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 3:13 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 44):
Speaking for myself, I don't care about frequency changes of +1 or -1 unless the forebode a bigger strategy like CVG losing its mini-hub status or DL opening a focus city somewhere. I have remarked about DL increasing frequency on SEA-ANC which I think is a significant strategic move. More seasonal flights to Florida from a hub is nice, but it's tactical and not strategic. I care about the strategy, not the tactical changes. Different strokes...

The biggest strategy there is asset redeployment from lower-margin to higher-margin, higher revenue potential markets. SEA is highly strategic in nature.

SEA-ANC is interesting in itself, but part of a larger strategy of building hub-feed for SEA and how they need to scrap for feed on all angles.

DTW-Florida incremental flying in interesting because its a broader part of their strategy to offer increased capacity to go after additional demand. Its different in years past where they didn't offer this and along with E fares/Economy Basic shows a renewed competitive focus at going after ULCCs/LCCs.

CVG and, MEM make for good theater and dramatics, but there is a lot more going on around the airline than just 2 former hubs/waning focus cities. SEA is very interesting, we'll all admit and something we haven't seen done in a good long time.

Quoting enilria (Reply 44):
Since thus post is all Delta, I almost posted a thread about how DL is decreasing capacity aggressively in TransPac, while UA is adding it. We are seeing an historical shift from the NW-PA Pacific era whereby UA will be pretty dominant after NRT closes for DL.

This is worthy of its own discussion, but we'll save that for another thread, focused on the topic.
Dominant is an ambiguous term though, what's that supposed to mean?
Its also interesting to factor in the broader socio-economic issues of Japan and in context to the rest of Asia too.

Quoting enilria (Reply 44):
Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 41):
Mature companies are able to be successful in a competitive environment.

For a while...

Historically, in almost every industry the biggest challenges are when companies transition from being in a growth/expansion mode to becoming sustainable in a mature/no-growth environment. Airlines struggled with this significantly for most of the time in the post-deregulation environment, and with the all of the growth in the 1990s came back to get them in the early 2000s.

For once, at least for a short period of time we're seeing this. All bets are off at the next major downturn, that will be the real test as for how these companies can react and adjust.

Big-box retail is another one that is struggling to define itself. Both from the transition from grown to mature industries/markets.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 3:15 pm

Quoting osubuckeyes (Reply 45):
Also keep in mind that area of the country has seen a drastic increase of ULCC traffic. Not necessarily ERI, but in YNG, CLE, and NKs entry into Latrobe. That type of traffic is more likely to be price sensitive to drive a certain distance. My conclusion would be that DL sees something in the market that can give them an insight into the effectiveness of E fares in a different perspective than Hubs-Florida. I also can't believe i wrote two paragraphs about ERI-DTW.

In the concept of design-of-experiments, a market on DTW-ERI would be a test case used to isolate certain variables.
 
FlyPNS1
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 3:15 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 44):
Exactly and for somebody to win, somebody must lose

That's not necessarily true. The market can grow. The number of people flying next year will be more than this year barring something really dramatic happens.

Quoting enilria (Reply 44):
Since thus post is all Delta, I almost posted a thread about how DL is decreasing capacity aggressively in TransPac, while UA is adding it. We are seeing an historical shift from the NW-PA Pacific era whereby UA will be pretty dominant after NRT closes for DL.

DL is just a bit ahead of UA in this strategy. UA will start to shrink in the TransPac market as they downgauge 747's to A350's. Granted, I still expect UA to remain bigger than DL in the TransPac market purely because UA has better hubs to serve the TransPac market.

Almost anything you see DL doing, you'll see UA following. Remember, not long ago, when you were all in a tizzy about DL losing marketshare because they were cutting frequency and upgauging. Well guess what, now UA is following DL cutting frequencies at ORD, but upgauging to larger equipment to maintain or even increase capacity.
 
Osubuckeyes
Posts: 1830
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RE: OAG Changes 12/19/2015: AA/DL/UA/US

Tue Dec 16, 2014 3:26 pm

Quoting DTW.SCE" class="quote" target="_blank">PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 47):
In the concept of design-of-experiments, a market on DTW-ERI would be a test case used to isolate certain variables

Agree Agree Agree! That is exactly what I was trying to say! Took way to many words to say it!

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 48):
DL is just a bit ahead of UA in this strategy. UA will start to shrink in the TransPac market as they downgauge 747's to A350's. Granted, I still expect UA to remain bigger than DL in the TransPac market purely because UA has better hubs to serve the TransPac market.

Almost anything you see DL doing, you'll see UA following.

I actually think the opposite is true over the Pacific. DL is establishing a US mainland presence that UA has had for quite some time vis SFO and LAX somewhat. In terms of onboard product/amenities I do think UA will follow with some of the changes that DL has made. The wildcard here is the Asian carriers, which have for the most part a better product and service. How will that affect UA and DL going forward as they creep into secondary mainland TPAC markets with the 787.

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