I agree with others that this is mostly AF
/KLM's financial performance. But it does potentially impact fleet planning.
|Quoting enilria (Reply 24):|
The LOW FUEL PRICES is huge. This may be the first move in fleet plan related to fuel.
This is huge in that suddenly there is a different decision when an out of date plane, say a 744, is facing an expensive maintenance burden, there is a new choice as noted:
|Quoting SEPilot (Reply 38):|
Even when one is facing major heavy maintenance is not a given; it may be still more economical in the long run to pay for the D-check and fly it for a few more years in order to replace it with one that is 15% more efficient.
In particular with early (ish) 779 slots still available. The replace now vs. hold on and replace later with a far more economical plane just became more complicated. I am talking about replacing 744s and A330CEOs on routes that could support a 77W.
|Quoting fcogafa (Reply 15):|
Airbus are in the same position with the A330CEO but strangely you keep quiet about that, especially in a week where A330CEO orders have decreased by 15.
Both are going to hurt during the transition. IMHO, Boeing will have to slow the 777 line to about 36 per year before ramping back up for the 777X. It is almost perfectly analogous to the A330 NEO situation except Boeing has more years to cover.
|Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 9):|
Airlines deferring B777-300 ER is bad news for Boeing, the next step is than conversion to B777X and the B777 line is getting empty until the B777X EIS. We could see prodcution rate reductions for Boeing's "money maker".
How can the line slowing (even going to one line) be avoided?
Oil would have to drop a bit more.
|Quoting Revelation (Reply 31):|
Yet Boeing is investing billions of dollars in 777x and has hundreds of orders even though it won't EIS till 2019. A380, not so much...
That is worth repeating. The issue in the lack of 77W sales isn't shutting down the 777 line, but rather covering production until the 777X. There is no question the 777 line will continue. It is a question of the value of procuring new 77Ws now or waiting for 779s and holding onto other airframes (77E, A330CEO, or 744).
This is interesting. At > $70/bbl, it was get the gas-hog out of the fleet. Now...
I cannot wait to get vaccinated to live again! Warning: I simulated that it takes 50%+ vaccinated to protect the vaccinated and 75%+ vaccinated to protect the vac-hesitant.