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Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 2:09 am

Please continue the discussion here:

Air Asia QZ8501 SUB to SIN Missing Part 2 (by captainmeeerkat Dec 28 2014 in Civil Aviation)

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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 2:14 am

Singapore's air force says a 2nd plane will join search.
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 2:19 am

Not that it's necessarily relevant, but how long did it take to find the wreckage of the Adam Air 737 that crashed some years back?

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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 2:23 am

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 2):
Not that it's necessarily relevant, but how long did it take to find the wreckage of the Adam Air 737 that crashed some years back?


7-8 days to locate the wreckage and another 2 weeks to locate the the black boxes.

[Edited 2014-12-28 18:24:36]
 
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 2:26 am

Quoting Mortyman (Reply 3):

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 2):
Not that it's necessarily relevant, but how long did it take to find the wreckage of the Adam Air 737 that crashed some years back?


7-8 days to locate the wreckage and another 2 weeks to locate the the black boxes.

I hope it does not take that long. I feel like 4 hour is today is taking way to long to find this wreckage.
 
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 2:40 am

Quoting mark2fly1034 (Reply 4):
I hope it does not take that long. I feel like 4 hour is today is taking way to long to find this wreckage.

Why? It's not going anywhere.
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 2:41 am

Quoting Miami (Reply 1):
Singapore's air force says a 2nd plane will join search.

I sure hope that all parties that are going to help with the search particiapte sooner rather than later.
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 2:48 am

Quoting bueb0g (Reply 5):
Why? It's not going anywhere.

Depends on the state of the wreckage and if there is alot of wind and strong currents in the area.
 
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 2:49 am

Quoting bueb0g (Reply 5):

The JAL 747 crash in 1985 had survivors who made it 24 hours before being rescued. No one thought that would be surviveable, but 4 people survived, so the first 24 hours can be critical.
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 2:49 am

Quoting bueb0g (Reply 5):
Why? It's not going anywhere.

Yes it is. The floating wrecking is scattering and sinking with every passing minute. There is approximately a 48 hour window of opportunity to find the spot where the plane went down. With AF 447, they found the first piece of floating wreckage, and thus closed in on the general crash site, within 37 hours. Being able to narrow it down to several miles square was vital to getting the black boxes eventually found. With MH370, they could not find the crash site soon enough to make a search for the black boxes small enough to be practical.

Once we go beyond that golden 48 hours, the chance of finding the crash site diminishes quickly.
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 2:53 am

Quoting bueb0g (Reply 5):
Why? It's not going anywhere.

Aside from all of the legitimate reasons already stated, I can't help but think that finding the wreckage quickly would be anything other than a huge relief to all parties involved. Just because it might not be "going anywhere" doesn't mean that the families of the victims as well as all organizations involved don't want to figure this out asap.

Perhaps you didn't mean it to sound the way it did, but to me it seemed almost flippant to the notion that finding the aircraft quickly is of the utmost importance.

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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 2:56 am

Quoting hmmmm... (Reply 9):
With AF 447, they found the first piece of floating wreckage, and thus closed in on the general crash site, within 37 hours.

Which was a remarkable achievement given the location of the AF447 accident. Whilst the SAR team had a pretty good idea of where AF447 went down, the middle of the Atlantic is still the middle of the Atlantic and is way more of a remote location than the waters around SE Asia where they are currently looking for this plane... To have found the tail fin from AF447 so quickly was just remarkable IMHO... Then look how long it took to locate and recover the boxes...
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 2:56 am

CNN is reporting that Indonesian authorities have stated they are looking for the A/C "at the bottom of the sea."

As much as one gathers hopes of a miracle happening, it seems the result is always the same in these type of accidents. Very sad news.
 
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 2:57 am

Quoting hmmmm... (Reply 9):
Yes it is. The floating wrecking is scattering and sinking with every passing minute.

I would imagine that it is moving faster than it normally would because of the weather, if the weather is still as bad as it was.

Quoting mark2fly1034 (Reply 4):
I feel like 4 hour is today is taking way to long to find this wreckage.

I agree since we have a descent idea of where it went down and what time. Don't we also know that it went down around the time it lost contact with ATC, while with MH370, there was a sequence of equipment shutdowns?
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 3:00 am

Quoting Wayfarer515 (Reply 12):
CNN is reporting that Indonesian authorities have stated they are looking for the A/C "at the bottom of the sea."

Haven't they been looking near the bottom during most of the search time?

My mom said she heard on the news earlier today (Sun., Dec. 28) that the ocean they are searching is not that deep.

Does anyone have any info on depth?
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 3:05 am

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 14):
Haven't they been looking near the bottom during most of the search time?

My mom said she heard on the news earlier today (Sun., Dec. 28) that the ocean they are searching is not that deep.

Does anyone have any info on depth?

See attached graph. Quite shallow.
http://img4.hostingpics.net/pics/655569sunda.png

I would expect fuel to be fairly visible considering the depth.
 
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 3:07 am

Quoting Airbusa322 (Reply 16):


Thank you.

Have they not seen anything like a slick yet? If not, do you think that is because they have not been able to see much due to weather. I would expect a slick to stand out.
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 3:08 am

Quoting mark2fly1034 (Reply 4):
I feel like 4 hour is today is taking way to long to find this wreckage
Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 13):

on what do you base a 4 hr time.. ? it assumes perfect weather and response vehicles in the vicinity before the accident occurred..
 
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 3:12 am

Quoting kanban (Reply 19):
on what do you base a 4 hr time.. ? it assumes perfect weather and response vehicles in the vicinity before the accident occurred..

I guess I don't mean literally four hours. I just mean relatively quickly, for example, I thought they would be able to find it today, but I guess that would be difficult if the storms are really bad.
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 3:16 am

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 13):
I agree since we have a descent idea of where it went down and what time. Don't we also know that it went down around the time it lost contact with ATC, while with MH370, there was a sequence of equipment shutdowns?

If it were somehow connected to MH370 it doesn't mean that the process wasn't refined from the first one, although it would seem that tie is fairly unlikely so far.
 
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 3:20 am

Quoting enilria (Reply 21):
If it were somehow connected to MH370 it doesn't mean that the process wasn't refined from the first one

That's true, but if that were the case, wouldn't they have to know what happened in the case of MH370 - or it would help that they did - so could one then think that there was communication after the event, hence people are alive somewhere?

Speaking of MH370, my aunt just told me that she read that 10 days after the crash, one of the pax wrote a Facebook message saying they are on Diego Garcia Military Base in the Indian Ocean and that they needed help/rescuing. Has anyone heard of that?

[Edited 2014-12-28 19:21:27]
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 3:20 am

The CNN coverage last night Indonesia time was a journalist in Beijing - probably 10' hours flight away - talking rubbish - pure rubbish for 10 minutes. It's christmas holidays when all the journalists are off and they usually show the best of 2014 crap, so they have no resources.

Someone mentioned someone on Fox News blamed metric - those guys really dont l believe in any progress if true.

One question I'd like to see asked at the next briefing - why was an engineer onboard? Issue with the aircraft or simply positioning to Singapore?
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 3:23 am

Quoting bestwestern (Reply 23):
One question I'd like to see asked at the next briefing - why was an engineer onboard? Issue with the aircraft or simply positioning to Singapore?

Good point. Does anyone with knowledge of AirAsia know if having an engineer in the cockpit is common practice?

If there was some sort of issue with the e/q, I would be very disappointed that it would be allowed to fly. The first thread said that the mx was in Nov. It seems sort of long after to do a post mx inspection to make sure that everything was put back together properly.
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 3:24 am

Quoting bestwestern (Reply 23):

Some flights take technicians with them if out stations don't have better options. At least one of our flights does for this very reason. Gets a free trip in First back and forth 99.9% of the time
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 3:29 am

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 22):
If there was some sort of issue with the e/q, I would be very disappointed that it would be allowed to fly. The first thread said that the mx was in Nov. It seems sort of long after to do a post mx inspection to make sure that everything was put back together properly.

Mechanics fly around all the time. Sometimes to do MX actions at outstations, other times to be there if something happens on the turn. It is a common practice. Also several items are deferred or MEL'd on airlines flight night now all over the world.
 
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 3:38 am

Quoting 32andBelow (Reply 24):


OK, thanks for the info.

Quoting 32andBelow (Reply 24):
Also several items are deferred or MEL'd on airlines flight night now all over the world.

What does "MEL'd" mean?
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 3:42 am

Check out the following quote:

http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel...ntrol/story-fnizu68q-1227168427005

""MSNBC TV reported the plane had may have attempted to pass over a sixty-thousand foot, level five thunderstorm before it went missing.

According to airliners.net, entering a level five storm means you’re liable to “hurt yourself”.""
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 3:46 am

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 25):
What does "MEL'd" mean?
http://aviationglossary.com/mmel-mel-faa-definitions/

You're welcome
 
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 3:46 am

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 25):
Quoting 32andBelow (Reply 24):
Also several items are deferred or MEL'd on airlines flight night now all over the world.

What does "MEL'd" mean?


"MEL'd" is slang for "something is broken or missing on the plane". As 32andBelow says, stuff is broken on planes all the time. If planes always had to be "perfect", tons of flights would be canceled daily.

The term comes from MEL, the "Minimum Equipment List". A list of the items that can be broken or missing yet the plane may still be dispatch, under which conditions, and how long until the part must be fixed. For example a winglet may have been dinged and has been removed pending a replacement part. It is thus "MEL'd" but the plane flies passengers anyway. The missing winglet gives a fuel burn penalty which has to be included in calculations.

Another example is if the APU is inoperable, this may impact the plane's max distance/time from an alternate airport.

[Edited 2014-12-28 19:50:08]
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 3:47 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 26):
""MSNBC TV reported the plane had may have attempted to pass over a sixty-thousand foot, level five thunderstorm before it went missing.

According to airliners.net, entering a level five storm means you’re liable to “hurt yourself”.""

That is great to know that mainstream media outlets are looking at A.net for information.

As for 60,000 ft., how would a plane ever fly over that?
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 3:48 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 26):
""MSNBC TV reported the plane had may have attempted to pass over a sixty-thousand foot, level five thunderstorm before it went missing.

According to airliners.net, entering a level five storm means you’re liable to “hurt yourself”.""

Fortunately, they didn't actually say that on MSNBC TV.
 
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 3:50 am

Quoting CO953 (Reply 27):

Thanks.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 28):
It comes from MEL, the "Minimum Equipment List". A list of the items that can be broken or missing yet the plane may still be dispatch, under which conditions, and how long until the part must be fixed. For example a winglet may have been dinged and has been removed pending a replacement part. It is thus "MEL'd" but the plane flies passengers anyway. The missing winglet gives a fuel burn penalty which has to be included in calculations.

Another example is if the APU is inoperable, this may impact the plane's max distance/time from an alternate airport.


Thank you as well. I guess if it is good and safe enough to fly, then the problem is not detrimental and it is, thus, safe to put pax on. I, personally, would consider a missing winglet relatively minor, especially when compared to other problems that ground planes.
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 3:51 am

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 28):
For example a winglet may have been dinged and has been removed pending a replacement part. It is thus "MEL'd" but the plane flies passengers anyway.

Not the best example -- for a piece of the airplane that's missing/whatever I believe you'd use the CDL (Configuration Deviation List) which is similar to the MEL -- the winglet is not E (Equipment) but part of the C (Configuration).
 
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 3:53 am

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 29):
That is great to know that mainstream media outlets are looking at A.net for information.

I think they are trying to make an article out of bits of info from here and there regardless of the source.

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 29):
As for 60,000 ft., how would a plane ever fly over that?

A commercial plane wouldn't. That is well beyond coffin corner and the planes limits.
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 3:55 am

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 32):

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 28):
For example a winglet may have been dinged and has been removed pending a replacement part. It is thus "MEL'd" but the plane flies passengers anyway.

Not the best example -- for a piece of the airplane that's missing/whatever I believe you'd use the CDL (Configuration Deviation List) which is similar to the MEL -- the winglet is not E (Equipment) but part of the C (Configuration).

I knew I'd get nailed for that. 

Thanks for clarifying. I know about the difference CDL and MEL. However in my experience the term used tends to be "MEL'd" either way (maybe CDL'd is too much of a mouthful). In short, some bits of the plane may be broken or missing, and there are procedures to deal with operating when said bits are broken or missing.
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 3:57 am

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 29):

They always have been. I remember after Asiana a lot of stuff that was reported on the accident was info taken from here. I personally know for fact the Government also monitors the military section of the site.

But they can't. The only Commercial aircraft that could cruise that high was the Concorde. As far as I am aware, 45,000ft is the highest any commercial aircraft currently in production is certified to.
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 4:02 am

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 20):
Speaking of MH370, my aunt just told me that she read that 10 days after the crash, one of the pax wrote a Facebook message saying they are on Diego Garcia Military Base in the Indian Ocean and that they needed help/rescuing. Has anyone heard of that?

You can find more on something similar if you do a search about a MH370 passenger by the name of Phillip Wood & the photo...
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 4:14 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 36):

The Phillip Wood photo has been debunked. Combine easily altered exif data (there is an app now that will turn all your photos to being from Diego Garcia) and the source being 4chan..... Not entirely credible.
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 4:36 am

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 32):

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 28):
For example a winglet may have been dinged and has been removed pending a replacement part. It is thus "MEL'd" but the plane flies passengers anyway.

Not the best example -- for a piece of the airplane that's missing/whatever I believe you'd use the CDL (Configuration Deviation List) which is similar to the MEL -- the winglet is not E (Equipment) but part of the C (Configuration).

In military aviation which I spent more than a decade, its ADD or Acceptable Deferred Defects where the plane can continue flying with no practical curtail on operations. For cases where its does affect certain performance parameters, it would be reflected in a higher level Limitation Log.
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 4:39 am

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 18):
I guess I don't mean literally four hours. I just mean relatively quickly, for example,

you're off the hook .. and learning quickly sometimes we just have to look beyond our emotions at the real world out there
 
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 4:41 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 26):
MSNBC TV reported the plane had may have attempted to pass over a sixty-thousand foot, level five thunderstorm before it went missing.

According to airliners.net, entering a level five storm means you’re liable to “hurt yourself

I see News Channels' aviation 'specialists' are still at the top of their game...

 

My thoughts are with the families.
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 4:43 am

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 29):

I thought Concorde regularly cruised at those types of altitudes ?
 
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 4:44 am

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 16):
Have they not seen anything like a slick yet? If not, do you think that is because they have not been able to see much due to weather. I would expect a slick to stand out.

The proverbial 'Oil Slick' that's supposedly so easy to see and detect is a good point; and it would be very interesting to hear from someone who does have real experience in this regard.

Without being too specific, I know of several thousand litres of SAB (Special Antarctic Blend; lighter than diesel but heavier than JET-A1) having been spilled on to relative calm waters, although, with a fair bit of wind (20 knots); this was more than twenty five years ago.
There was no way of noticing or finding any of that spill the next day.

With a fair bit of wind in the region of the search site, and fairly rough seas, would one expect to see much fuel at all?
Oil perhaps, because it ought to be a bit more noticeable.

I could imagine that a fisherman or an 'Old Salt' would smell fuel on the water before seeing it.

How much oil would seep out of an aircraft wreck continuously, in the first few hours, before it slows down to a 'drip, drip, drip' like trickle?

Oil spills from ships would be quite different, a) because the oil there is much heavier and darker and, b) there would be lots more of it. From my diving days in PNG in the 70s I know that war time ship wrecks were still seeping oil after all that time. Sort of like a small drop (like from a water tap) a minute; but nobody was concerned and, indeed, unless right over the wreck, it couldn't be noticed from any distance.
 
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 4:45 am

CNN expert being interviewed today: "Wings are very flexible, I (he) witnessed a structural test down there at Cessna and the wing tips nearly touched each other during the test."
 
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 4:49 am

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 41):

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 29):

I thought Concorde regularly cruised at those types of altitudes ?

Indeed, but no other airliner.

Quoting aerodog (Reply 43):
CNN expert being interviewed today: "Wings are very flexible, I (he) witnessed a structural test down there at Cessna and the wing tips nearly touched each other during the test."

Sure they did, right after the wing spar failed.  Wink

[Edited 2014-12-28 20:52:34]
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
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enilria
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 4:50 am

Quoting aerodog (Reply 43):
CNN expert

Sorry, you lost me after those two words. A CNN expert's only resume item is the ability to read from a script.
 
32andBelow
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 4:58 am

That's not fair. CNN researches their theories before putting them on the air.
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BestWestern
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 5:05 am

CNN and their ilk are just filling time with their so called experts in Beijing. Over on fox I'm not surprised to see the tin foil hat brigade. Jakarta Post or new straits times are probably the best source with resource on the ground. Anywhere else will be second hand information or stringers dropped into the ground with no contacts.

Extensive flooding yesterday in Java and last week in East Malaysia demonstrate the weather these days in this part of the world.
Greetings from Hong Kong.... a subsidiary of China Inc.
 
 
dmsolovyev
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3

Mon Dec 29, 2014 5:09 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 36):
You can find more on something similar if you do a search about a MH370 passenger by the name of Phillip Wood & the photo...

Well, this "Philip Wood story" is just another fancy conspiracy theory, isn't it? Hard to believe this is for real.

We can see news stories about "strange" messages and phone calls after almost every crash but most of them are considered fakes or some sort of errors. For example, after the SSJ demo flight disappearance near Jakarta in 2012, someone tried to make a phone call to one of the passengers. The phone was ringing although nobody answered. That fact gave a little hope for relatives. However, few hours later it was discovered that phone owner left his mobile phone behind in hotel room, where it was ringing. Crash site has been found on the next day.

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