Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, hOMSaR

 
User avatar
American 767
Topic Author
Posts: 4511
Joined: Wed May 19, 1999 7:27 am

Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Mon Dec 29, 2014 7:43 pm

Please continue the discussion here:

Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 3 (by American 767 Dec 28 2014 in Civil Aviation)

Ben Soriano
Ben Soriano
 
laxboeingman
Posts: 467
Joined: Mon Mar 17, 2008 10:22 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Mon Dec 29, 2014 7:53 pm

Quoting pvjin (Reply 232):
It's still bad reporting as the aircraft belonged to an Indonesian company and was registered in Indonesia.

No, it's not.



That is debatable. I think it is considering the company operating the flight was Indonesian and the parent company is called something slightly different, as far as I know.

I would love to spend time debating journalism ethics - seriously, not sarcasm - but that is not why we are here.
The opinions I post are mine and not of any organization I am affiliated with.
 
Independence76
Posts: 415
Joined: Thu Jul 19, 2007 9:59 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Mon Dec 29, 2014 8:36 pm

I apologize if this has been mentioned before, but was the aircraft equipped with ACARS?
 
Carfield
Posts: 2184
Joined: Fri Dec 19, 2003 5:49 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Mon Dec 29, 2014 8:46 pm

I am actually confused here.

Air Asia is the parent company, but I presume that they are not the majority shareholder on these other branches, like Thai Air Asia, and Indonesia Air Asia. For Indonesia Air Asia, Air Asia owns 49%, while a local tycoon owns 51%. The planes are all Indonesian-registered, including this particular plane involved in the crash. They even use their own two letter code, and ICAO and call sign.

When people talk about this crash, I always remind them that it is Indonesian Air Asia.

Just curious if any other a.net experts have any insight about the country of origin of these Air Asia branches.

Carfield
 
User avatar
pvjin
Posts: 3586
Joined: Fri Mar 16, 2012 4:52 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Mon Dec 29, 2014 8:49 pm

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 1):

Yeah, well here in Finland the media was reporting how a Malaysia has had such a bad luck when they just lost third Malaysian aircraft, despite it being an Indonesian based and registered aircraft owned by an Indonesian registered company.

With same logic we could say that today a 747 of an American airline had landing gear issues, after all Virgin Group also owns a part of Virgin America & the aircraft was made in the US.
"Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that." - Martin Luther King Jr
 
User avatar
intsim
Posts: 92
Joined: Sat Nov 13, 2010 4:54 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Mon Dec 29, 2014 9:05 pm

Could a mod or member who knows the details please do an updated fact list?

Was the text message saying a passenger was ok ever confirmed? I was wondering if a passenger attempted to send that while in the air during the initial event and it finally sent after the assumed chain of events happened.

Thank you.
 
Airspeed772
Posts: 71
Joined: Sun Dec 28, 2014 2:54 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Mon Dec 29, 2014 9:47 pm

What do we know that is factual about Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Is that the flight deck crew some how allow the aircraft to fly into some very violent weather
Airspeed772
 
wingman
Posts: 3898
Joined: Thu May 27, 1999 4:25 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Mon Dec 29, 2014 10:02 pm

I don't have time to read through Part III but has anyone discussed a news bit about the reported airspeed at the time the plane lost contact? Someone on CNN was just saying that the last reported airspeed was too low for stable flight, so possibly an indication of stall conditions. I don't know why all these news organizations keep talking about 370 when the similarities at this stage point much more towards AF447.

Sorry if this was discussed and established as rubbish.
 
namezero111111
Posts: 139
Joined: Thu Mar 20, 2014 7:05 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Mon Dec 29, 2014 10:06 pm

Quoting wingman (Reply 7):

Without the plane, FDR, or alive pilot being located I find it hard that CNN would know what the airspeed was.
 
lnglive1011yyz
Posts: 1502
Joined: Thu Oct 23, 2003 12:23 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Mon Dec 29, 2014 10:07 pm

This was said to me on the previous thread twice by two different people:

"You do realize that there is no radar coverage where AF447 occurred, right? The transponder can send out anything it wants, but if it can't be received, it's not very useful. "

I used ATC and the transponder as an example to get my point across that the current system isn't working, and with all the technology we have today at our fingertips, there has to be a way to get that information into the hands of people who CAN help in a situation where the pilots hands are tied, so to speak. I'm not necessarily saying that that is the ONLY way to go.

To have 400 some odd people just in the last year alone sitting at the bottom of the ocean undetectable is completely unacceptable. You can get internet over the middle of the Atlantic, but we can't get a plane to advise someone on the ground that something MIGHT be seriously wrong?

Clearly if an airplane that is supposed to be at 32,000 ft is navigating in ANY manner outside of a 'normal' operation (extreme yaw pitch or roll), SOMEONE should be alerted. It doesn't mean that the SAR people need to be triggered immediately, but someone should know, so that ANY assistance on the ground can be offered OR SAR be notified if it's suspected that the plane did not recover.

To suggest that nothing be done is just wrong to me.

1011yyz
Pack your bags, we're going on a sympathy trip!
 
jetblue1965
Posts: 5050
Joined: Wed Mar 19, 2014 1:28 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Mon Dec 29, 2014 10:07 pm

Quoting Carfield (Reply 3):

Air Asia is the parent company, but I presume that they are not the majority shareholder on these other branches, like Thai Air Asia, and Indonesia Air Asia. For Indonesia Air Asia, Air Asia owns 49%, while a local tycoon owns 51%. The planes are all Indonesian-registered, including this particular plane involved in the crash. They even use their own two letter code, and ICAO and call sign.

When people talk about this crash, I always remind them that it is Indonesian Air Asia.
Quoting pvjin (Reply 4):

Yeah, well here in Finland the media was reporting how a Malaysia has had such a bad luck when they just lost third Malaysian aircraft, despite it being an Indonesian based and registered aircraft owned by an Indonesian registered company.

All of that hardly matters, because the true CEO is still Mr. T.F. based out of KUL, and people will still link the accident to the mother brand "AirAsia". This line of argument is similar to those who claim Jetstar Hong Kong would be completely independent and unrelated to Jetstar HQ in Australia.

If god forbid something happens to NAI in the future, do we blame it on the Irish ?
 
AA777
Posts: 2361
Joined: Thu May 20, 1999 7:07 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Mon Dec 29, 2014 10:08 pm

Not sure why after MH370, there seemed to be no more discussion about real time tracking of each airline's planes. It seems technically feasible. For safety and for accidents, why aren't we keeping much closer track of where planes are? We dont need to rely solely on radar anymore, as it might not provide as much precision as other methods of tracking. Also I've heard nothing regarding pings for black boxes?

-AA777

[Edited 2014-12-29 14:13:42]
 
User avatar
enilria
Posts: 10073
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Mon Dec 29, 2014 10:10 pm

Quoting wingman (Reply 7):
Someone on CNN was just saying

Well, he's an "expert", so he doesn't have to post any sources.
 
wingman
Posts: 3898
Joined: Thu May 27, 1999 4:25 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Mon Dec 29, 2014 10:11 pm

Maybe they got their info from someone like this..??
http://skyvector.com/forum/airasia-8501-adsb-airspeed-analysis
 
canoecarrier
Posts: 2573
Joined: Sat Feb 14, 2004 1:20 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Mon Dec 29, 2014 10:32 pm

Quoting lnglive1011yyz (Reply 9):
To suggest that nothing be done is just wrong to me.

I don't think the majority of people in the industry are saying nothing can be done, perhaps some people here are suggesting that it's just the way it is, but as has been mentioned many times during the AF447 and MH370 investigation threads BEA and many other air safety organizations have studied how to do what you are advocating for.

You can read both reports developed by BEA (i.e., Trigerred transmission of flight data, Flight data recovery working group final report) that comprehensively discuss the challenges, advantages and costs of the technology at BEA's website. These reports were put together by industry representives, aircraft manufacturers and aviation safety experts from all over the world.

http://www.bea.aero/en/enquetes/flight.af.447/reports.php
The beatings will continue until morale improves
 
frostyj
Posts: 1786
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2014 9:04 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:07 pm

Quoting intsim (Reply 5):

What text message?
[url=http://m.maploco.com/details/5f34zxvq][img]http://www.maploco.com/vmap/s/8395334.png[/img][/url]
 
rolfen
Posts: 1539
Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2006 6:03 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:12 pm

Quoting canoecarrier (Reply 14):
I don't think the majority of people in the industry are saying nothing can be done

Maybe the pilots can at least be trained or instructed to issue mayday calls or special calls when they are in danger, just in case they crash. Sounds like an inexpensive first step.
This has to be coupled with a way of transimitting coordinates. You can't expect pilots to read out GPS coordinates in dire emergency situations, but it would not be asking too much to make a simple call or press a button to be located.

[Edited 2014-12-29 15:14:21]
rolf
 
laxboeingman
Posts: 467
Joined: Mon Mar 17, 2008 10:22 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:14 pm

Quoting rolfen (Reply 16):
Maybe the pilots can at least be trained or instructed to issue mayday calls or special calls when they are in danger, just in case they crash. Sounds like an inexpensive first step.

As has ben mentioned countless times through the three previous threads, the priorities are to aviate, navigate and then communicate. When the pilot is trying to aviate through an emergency, especially an extreme one like this, there is no time to communicate.
The opinions I post are mine and not of any organization I am affiliated with.
 
awthompson
Posts: 520
Joined: Sat May 28, 2005 9:59 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:15 pm

Here are some thoughts that serious readers/pilots may concur with. If knowledgeable posters don't agree, feel free to voice your opinion keeping it amicable and courteous.

As I have stated in an earlier thread and one or two other posters have hinted, I don't believe QZ8501 was brought down by in flight damage/breakup as a result of an unexpected encounter with severe thunderstorm related turbulence, wind shear, hail, water ingestion etc. etc. I also doubt that 'severe' or 'extreme' airframe icing was at play.

Why? ....... WelI, for starters I don't believe a crew used to flying in the region messed up so bad as to get their airplane into such a situation!

In the early threads discussing AF447, exactly this type of discussion occurred. All along I doubted it, although I admit that deep down I hoped that such severe weather was not indeed the cause.

Indeed it transpired that AF447 had not encountered severe weather outside the scope of what it should normally have been able to cope with. Yes, temporary pitot icing with subsequent loss of speed data, and some rough air, but no extreme turbulence violent enough to break up the A332 at cruise altitude. Indeed F-GZCO was fully intact and functional, engines running normally etc. etc. when it hit the sea surface.

With QZ8501, temporary loss of airspeed data as a result of pitot icing, followed by incorrect/confused crew reaction is a big possibility akin to AF447. Or indeed some other factor resulting in an inadvertent stall at high altitude is again very possible.

And on the subject, AF447 was not the only accident in recent years where crew fell 'behind' their aircraft and did not realize they were in dire straits until it was too late, if at all.

This type of scenario may also explain no distress call from PK-AXC.

I think we will find that nothing outside the capability of the aircraft occurred, but that a chain of events including weather as one of the originating factors has led to this unfortunate loss.

Above said, if I am found to be wrong, and the very unlikely possibility that severe weather tore the plane apart in the flight levels does become reality, I will be much more fearful flying in the region in future. I do fly a fair bit in the Malaysia/Philippines/South China Sea area and really do put my trust in pilots to keep us well clear of storm cell related extreme weather!
 
sierrakilo44
Posts: 232
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:38 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:22 pm

Quoting wingman (Reply 7):
I don't know why all these news organizations keep talking about 370 when the similarities at this stage point much more towards AF447

The similarity with MH370 is that the news media has turned into uninformed speculative morons when they don't have actual news to fill in their time

Having said that, and this will be a speculative comment,  
If this is due to a stall related weather induced upset inflight, it would be a case of pilot error. I hope something is finally done about the disgraceful Pay to Fly scheme which Airasia (and others) operate. Surely this has to be an underlying factor within the safety culture of the company.
 
User avatar
777Jet
Posts: 6982
Joined: Sat Mar 08, 2014 7:29 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:23 pm

I just heard a person with extensive experience in SAR speaking on ABC News 24 in Australia and he basically said that it would be expected that debris would drift at approx 1/2 a knot per hour to the East in that part of the Java Sea based on current charts. So, *if* debris were spotted and confirmed as belonging to the plane right now (roughly 48hrs after the incident started), they would backtrack about 45kms to the West when ready to search for the underwater wreckage site.
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
User avatar
intsim
Posts: 92
Joined: Sat Nov 13, 2010 4:54 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:24 pm

Quoting Frostyj (Reply 15):
What text message?

It was back in the first part or second I think. Someone said that a family member got a text message saying their loved one on AirAsia 8501 was ok. It was followed by a few posts that hoped it was the case. Then there were members bringing up the fb post and a message from MH370 pilot and a passenger.
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 12732
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:24 pm

Quoting rolfen (Reply 16):
Maybe the pilots can at least be trained or instructed to issue mayday calls or special calls when they are in danger, just in case they crash. Sounds like an inexpensive first step.
This has to be coupled with a way of transmitting coordinates. You can't expect pilots to read out GPS coordinates in dire emergency situations, but it would not be asking too much to make a simple call or press a button to be located.

This is not MH370 and this is not AF447. QZ8501 was in contact with ATC and seen by radars when something happened. Therefore we already have the coordinates of the last moments of flight.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 18746
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:25 pm

Quoting Airspeed772 (Reply 6):
What do we know that is factual about Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Is that the flight deck crew some how allow the aircraft to fly into some very violent weather

Do we actually know this?
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
aircatalonia
Posts: 637
Joined: Wed Nov 28, 2007 12:50 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:26 pm

Quoting awthompson (Reply 18):
I think we will find that nothing outside the capability of the aircraft occurred, but that a chain of events including weather as one of the originating factors has led to this unfortunate loss.

If the airplane didn't suffer a catastrophic event at cruise why didn't ADS-B broadcast information during their descent?

Surely it didn't drop 30,000ft in less than 2 or 3 minutes, or did it?
 
hivue
Posts: 2075
Joined: Tue Feb 26, 2013 2:26 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:35 pm

Quoting namezero111111 (Reply 8):
Without the plane, FDR, or alive pilot being located I find it hard that CNN would know what the airspeed was.

Last info from the transponder.

Quoting rolfen (Reply 16):
Maybe the pilots can at least be trained or instructed to issue mayday calls or special calls when they are in danger, just in case they crash.

That's what they do now.

Quoting rolfen (Reply 16):
This has to be coupled with a way of transimitting coordinates.

The transponder takes care of that already.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
BestWestern
Posts: 8349
Joined: Fri Sep 08, 2000 8:46 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:39 pm

Sorry, but people here are also uninformed speculative morons. We can give out about the media, but we've had requests for unsinkable aircraft.

We have sailed for tens of thousands of years and haven't even managed unsinkable boats for gods sake.

Yes, the media is left of base, so why don't we take the high road for once and leave the teenage style comments for somewhere else.
Greetings from Hong Kong.... a subsidiary of China Inc.
 
User avatar
777Jet
Posts: 6982
Joined: Sat Mar 08, 2014 7:29 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:39 pm

Quoting intsim (Reply 21):
Quoting Frostyj (Reply 15):
What text message?

It was back in the first part or second I think. Someone said that a family member got a text message saying their loved one on AirAsia 8501 was ok. It was followed by a few posts that hoped it was the case. Then there were members bringing up the fb post and a message from MH370 pilot and a passenger.

It was most likely dodgy reporting or a hoax.

IIRC somebody accessed the Facebook account of the FO on MH370 because posts were being made under his name joking about the flight some time / days after the flight and that was obviously a hoax.

Some people will always do stupid things like this for whatever reason...

[Edited 2014-12-29 15:44:34]
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 8152
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:42 pm

Quoting pvjin (Reply 4):
Yeah, well here in Finland the media was reporting how a Malaysia has had such a bad luck when they just lost third Malaysian aircraft, despite it being an Indonesian based and registered aircraft owned by an Indonesian registered company.

Like others posted for all intentional purpose AirAsia is an Malaysian Airline. Sure plane is registered in Indonesia and there is a AirAsia Indonesia CEO (we don't know who that person is and never heard from him/her over last two days). Corporate CEO is handling this incident.

Both countries are members of ASEAN economic zone, AirAsia takes full advantage of ASEAN and consolidates all its operations in Malaysia. This so called Indonesian Flagged plane goes to MX base in Malaysia. Not sure even AirAsia Indonesia has a separate ops center.

So on technicality you are absolutely correct, but calling it a Malaysian airline not way off either.
 
User avatar
TheRedBaron
Posts: 3276
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 6:17 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:43 pm

We still don't know the whereabouts of the missing aircraft, and I think its odd considering the traffic in that area, the shallow depth of the waters. As before we have so few "facts", I implore those who are still making a huge theme out of airline data monitoring. In fact, someone opened a very interesting thread on that matter when MH370 went missing for over a month.
Also I would ask for respect to the Pax and crew to refrain, labeling them as reckless, when we know other flights were on that area and none of them reported "deadly" conditions.

Lets use facts, and wait (hopefully to find the aircraft), and see where it leads us, in the mean time for wacky conclusions there is the T.V. FOX news and such....

Thanks

TRB
The best seat in a Plane is the Jumpseat.
 
hivue
Posts: 2075
Joined: Tue Feb 26, 2013 2:26 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:47 pm

Quoting awthompson (Reply 18):
Indeed F-GZCO was fully intact and functional, engines running normally etc. etc. when it hit the sea surface.

Indeed. And if QZ8501 was as intact all the way to the sea surface as AF447 was then the transponder wouldn't have quit at FL290.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
ryu2
Posts: 1556
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2002 8:18 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:52 pm

According to AVH, the aircraft was only cleared to FL340. So if the last return was at FL363 then something would be wrong. What do you all think? http://avherald.com/h?article=47f6abc7&opt=0
 
awthompson
Posts: 520
Joined: Sat May 28, 2005 9:59 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:52 pm

Quoting aircatalonia (Reply 24):

Quoting awthompson (Reply 18):
I think we will find that nothing outside the capability of the aircraft occurred, but that a chain of events including weather as one of the originating factors has led to this unfortunate loss.

If the airplane didn't suffer a catastrophic event at cruise why didn't ADS-B broadcast information during their descent?

Surely it didn't drop 30,000ft in less than 2 or 3 minutes, or did it?

Sudden catastrophic events in the cruise tend only to be bombs, missiles, collisions with other aircraft, or metal fatigue induced fuselage or other structural failure. Of these, only the bomb possibility is significant in the case of QZ8501.

If indeed the aircraft suffered a sudden catastrophic event at cruise caused directly by extreme weather, this is virtually unprecedented and as I have said, extremely worrying. If so, the effects of global warming will really sink in.
 
awthompson
Posts: 520
Joined: Sat May 28, 2005 9:59 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:56 pm

Quoting TheRedBaron (Reply 29):
Also I would ask for respect to the Pax and crew to refrain, labeling them as reckless, when we know other flights were on that area and none of them reported "deadly" conditions.

The last part of your sentence is significant.
 
awthompson
Posts: 520
Joined: Sat May 28, 2005 9:59 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 12:01 am

Quoting hivue (Reply 30):
Quoting awthompson (Reply 18):
Indeed F-GZCO was fully intact and functional, engines running normally etc. etc. when it hit the sea surface.

Indeed. And if QZ8501 was as intact all the way to the sea surface as AF447 was then the transponder wouldn't have quit at FL290.

A possibility could have been autopilot disconnect (commanded or uncommanded), followed by crew losing control and over stressing the aircraft in a dive. Now we may be getting close to something.
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9524
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 12:11 am

Quoting Airspeed772 (Reply 6):

What do we know that is factual about Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Is that the flight deck crew some how allow the aircraft to fly into some very violent weather

I find your phrasing of this to be callous and absent of any context. What is your point? "Somehow allow the aircraft to fly into..." - what do you mean by "somehow"?? Don't aircraft fly through stormy weather all the time?

What we know is both more and less than your statement, but your statement is without context or consideration of what may have actually happened on that flight.

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
BMcD
Posts: 75
Joined: Mon Dec 29, 2014 4:11 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 12:12 am

Long time lurker and first time poster, but this tragedy pushed me to get an account.

Reading through all the posts it seems like at points people have turned this into fanboy vs fanboy, A vs B, speculation vs tin foil hat stories. At the end of the day it seems that this is condensed into a few facts:

- The flight is missing and out of fuel
- The aircraft is down in some fashion somewhere
- There was a request for deviation
- ATC lost contact with the crew

Unsinkable, uncrashable aside, technology has made air travel much safer than it once was. Are there things that can be done? Sure. Does the cost outweigh the benefit? Would these measures improve safety or improve the location of wrecks? There is so many things to consider and each time we have a tragedy we go through these things. Until the plane and wreckage are found, there isn't much to go off of. Wild speculation only leads to wilder stories and the deeper these threads go the more far out the stories get. Next I expect to read is it is a Boeing conspiracy that they are taking the planes down to damage the NEO program to get more MAX orders and they have a tractor beam to Diego Garcia.
DC-8, DC-9, DC-10, MD-11, MD-80/2/3, 717, 737, 747, 757, 767, 777, 787, L1011, CRJ2/7/900, A320, A321, A330, Saab 340
 
L1011
Posts: 2153
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 8:02 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 12:15 am

Both of the AirAsia A320s I've been on had registrations that started with 9M. Are their aircraft registered in different countries?

Bob Bradley
Fly Eastern's Golden Falcon DC-7B
 
User avatar
Starlionblue
Posts: 19782
Joined: Fri Feb 27, 2004 9:54 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 12:19 am

Quoting rolfen (Reply 16):
Maybe the pilots can at least be trained or instructed to issue mayday calls or special calls when they are in danger, just in case they crash. Sounds like an inexpensive first step.
This has to be coupled with a way of transimitting coordinates. You can't expect pilots to read out GPS coordinates in dire emergency situations, but it would not be asking too much to make a simple call or press a button to be located.

Recovering planes intentionally put in "unusual attitudes" as part of training is not nearly as stressful as an actual emergency, but I can assure you there wasn't a lot of time to make radio calls.

Again, why burden the pilots with calling during an emergency situation when a) it will not save anyone, b) it will take personal bandwidth away from saving the plane and c) position reporting is already performed by ADS-B and similar systems.

Quoting TheRedBaron (Reply 29):
Also I would ask for respect to the Pax and crew to refrain, labeling them as reckless, when we know other flights were on that area and none of them reported "deadly" conditions.

I absolutely agree that we should not speculate on the skill of the pilots.

However it should be noted that thunderstorms cells can be very localized. You can be in clear and calm air a dozen nautical miles from a strong cell. This is part of what makes thunderstorms so dangerous. They come at you fast and the wind gradients are intense.

Quoting ryu2 (Reply 31):
According to AVH, the aircraft was only cleared to FL340. So if the last return was at FL363 then something would be wrong. What do you all think? http://avherald.com/h?article=47f6abc7&opt=0

If we assume the FL363 figure is true, it is possible (speculation) that the pilots may either a) have decided to climb anyway or b) ended up in a severe updraft. The pilots are ultimately responsible for the safety of the aircraft and may deviate from ATC instructions if they believe that not doing so will endanger the aircraft.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
User avatar
777Jet
Posts: 6982
Joined: Sat Mar 08, 2014 7:29 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 12:20 am

Quoting BMcD (Reply 36):
Next I expect to read is it is a Boeing conspiracy that they are taking the planes down to damage the NEO program to get more MAX orders and they have a tractor beam to Diego Garcia.

Now that you mention it, wasn't there an Airbus conspiracy that Airbus downed MH370 to damage the 777 / 777X program to get more A350 orders?        
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
hivue
Posts: 2075
Joined: Tue Feb 26, 2013 2:26 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 12:23 am

Quoting ryu2 (Reply 31):
So if the last return was at FL363

The Av Herald article doesn't actually say that. It says that a leaked radar screen shot showed it climbing through 363, but not that that was necessarily the last radar contact.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
User avatar
777Jet
Posts: 6982
Joined: Sat Mar 08, 2014 7:29 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 12:24 am

Quoting L1011 (Reply 37):
Both of the AirAsia A320s I've been on had registrations that started with 9M. Are their aircraft registered in different countries?

Yes.

They are registered HS- in Thailand (Thai Air Asia) and all other planes registered in Thailand for instance.

9M- is for Air Asia in Malaysia and all planes registered in Malaysia.

[Edited 2014-12-29 16:29:40]
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
heyjoojoo
Posts: 114
Joined: Thu Dec 27, 2007 8:28 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 12:25 am

Quoting TheRedBaron (Reply 29):

'Wacky conclusions' are not only left up to FOX News. It's amazing to me that there seems to be much leveled at that network. That's utterly silly considering we have other networks that can dish out nonsense like CNN and MSNBC. Neither can of those networks can hold a candle of truth to FOX news when it benefits them.

In any case, I've been perusing the comments and it seems that nothing has changed since the news broke in regards to this missing A320. Stunning to me that this seems to be the norm now for such aircraft incidents. Disturbing to the say the least.
 
liquidair
Posts: 266
Joined: Fri May 27, 2011 2:01 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 12:25 am

I've asked before and I'll try again...

Can somebody please put together an actual factual timeline of the last five minutes of known altitude, speed and heading from the aircraft?

I keep getting different numbers turn up, it would be really helpful to all...
trying to stop my gaseous viscosity go liquid
 
User avatar
MillwallSean
Posts: 964
Joined: Tue Apr 08, 2008 3:07 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 12:31 am

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 28):
Like others posted for all intentional purpose AirAsia is an Malaysian Airline. Sure plane is registered in Indonesia and there is a AirAsia Indonesia CEO (we don't know who that person is and never heard from him/her over last two days). Corporate CEO is handling this incident.

You haven't heard from him, thats probably due to your media sources not having done a decent job.
However he has been regularly on TV, radio and in media in SE Asia. He was with Fernandes at the press-conference in Surabaya and he has been with the victims families at the airport etc.
So thats a bit unfair.

In general my opinion is that management of Air Asia, both local and corporate, has been doing a good job so far. They obviously had a plan ready for an event like this and have executed it with warmth and respect. I am pretty impressed with how well Air Asia and especially management has handled this. Dignified and gone the extra mile.
No One Likes Us - We Dont Care.
 
hivue
Posts: 2075
Joined: Tue Feb 26, 2013 2:26 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 12:33 am

Quoting liquidair (Reply 43):
Can somebody please put together an actual factual timeline of the last five minutes of known altitude

I don't think any has been released yet. Go to the Av Herald link in one of the earlier posts. I think that's about the best info we have now.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
spacecadet
Posts: 3544
Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2001 3:36 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 12:37 am

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 35):
Don't aircraft fly through stormy weather all the time?

"Stormy weather", I guess technically you could say yes. It depends on how vaguely you define "weather". Certain types of clouds and conditions, pilots are taught to avoid because of convective winds and the possibility of hail damage. Planes are tough but they are not indestructible - and nature is tougher. Part of being a pilot is making the right decisions about what weather to fly through or around.

There is no way to know yet whether weather really played any role in this accident or not. Most accidents where weather is a factor have some other factor higher up in the causal chain. It's very, very rare for weather to be the primary cause of an accident.
I'm tired of being a wanna-be league bowler. I wanna be a league bowler!
 
User avatar
777Jet
Posts: 6982
Joined: Sat Mar 08, 2014 7:29 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 12:38 am

Quoting MillwallSean (Reply 44):
In general my opinion is that management of Air Asia, both local and corporate, has been doing a good job so far. They obviously had a plan ready for an event like this and have executed it with warmth and respect. I am pretty impressed with how well Air Asia and especially management has handled this. Dignified and gone the extra mile.

  

I agree with that.

Perhaps airlines / countries all over the world have learned how to NOT deal with an incident / accident as a result of the way MH & Malaysia dealt with MH370...

Kudos to Tony Fernandes, Air Asia & Indonesia for how they have gone about dealing with this tragic event thus far. I even heard on the news this morning that Indonesia has already asked the USA for help in locating the aircraft.
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
Pihero
Posts: 4318
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 5:11 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 1:16 am

Quoting awthompson (Reply 18):
. Indeed F-GZCO was fully intact and functional, engines running normally etc. etc. when it hit the sea surface.

To my knowledge F-GZCO is still plying the world skies.
AF447 was on F-GZCP.

Quoting liquidair (Reply 43):
I've asked before and I'll try again...
Can somebody please put together an actual factual timeline of the last five minutes of known altitude, speed and heading from the aircraft?

Nothing... absolutely nothing new since I posted this on thread #2 :


"Facts :

AirAsia 8501 scheduled from Surabaya to Singapore.

- On board 158 passengers and 6 aircrews (4 FAs and 2 FD )

- TOW 63 630 kg, CoG at 31.4 % MAC, almost ideal position.

- Fuel 8300 kg : 500 kg above minimum for the sector and a landing alternate at Johor Bahru, the closest possible.

At this weight the aircraft had the performance to climb to 39 000 ft with a margin of 1.5 G

- Initial flight level was FL 320 (probably for ATC constraints )

- FR24 recorded GS at 463 kt, consistent with a Mach .76 cruise.

- There were some *occasional* embedded Cbs en-route with tops above FL 500 ( 50 000 feet )

- The crew requested a course alteration for a Cb avoidance.

- Loss of contact / radar transponder at 23:16 or 17 Z

- A debris / wreckage field reported East of the island of Belitung which lays in the flight path of QZ8501.

That's all.

How can anyone start putting an accident scenario based on these known facts is really beyond me.
"

and Miami's FR24 graphs on his post #93, same thread.
and on thread #3, from LTC8KC, post # 60 :

"Some new details from AirNav Indonesia:

06:12

- QZ8501 requests left deviation from airway. Deviation approved.
- Pilot then requests climb to FL380
- ATC asks pilot to standby, due to nearby traffic and to coordinate with next sector (Singapore)

06:14

- ATC calls QZ8501 to approve climb to FL340
- No response received after 2 or 3 further attempts to contact
- ATC requests help from nearby aircraft to contact QZ8501

06:16

- ATC still cannot reach QZ8501
- Aircraft still observed on radar screen

06:17

- Radar contact lost
- Last reported altitude: FL290
"
Contrail designer
 
DTWPurserBoy
Posts: 2374
Joined: Fri Feb 19, 2010 10:33 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 1:22 am

Quoting namezero111111 (Reply 8):
Without the plane, FDR, or alive pilot being located I find it hard that CNN would know what the airspeed was.

Actually, Airbus aircraft transmit flight data CONSTANTLY from the airplane to Toulouse and to the airline's maintenance base. It sends out data regarding flight parameters, speed, engine performance--everything. Call Airbus in Toulouse and they can tell you exactly what happened just as they did with AF447. They had the flight data right up to the point of impact.

I cannot believe some of the a.netters and their lack of knowledge of basic geography. Many seem to think Indonesia is a suburb of KUL or something rather than an independant nation NOT related to Malaysia.

This hysterical "theorizing" is demeaning to the lost passengers and crew, not to mention the airline and the Indonesian people. I am waiting for someone to hypothesize that a tractor beam from Mars sucked the A320 into outer space. It would be funny if it was not so serious. It is hardly the first time that an airliner flew into bad weather and was destroyed.

Some of these posts go beyond mere hypothesizing into the realm of the absurd.

[Edited 2014-12-29 17:25:59]
Qualified on Concorde/B707/B720/B727/B737/B747/B757/B767/B777/DC-8/DC-9/DC-10/A319/A320/A330/MD-88-90

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos