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Tunasa
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 1:34 am

Quote:
Like others posted for all intentional purpose AirAsia is an Malaysian Airline. Sure plane is registered in Indonesia and there is a AirAsia Indonesia CEO (we don't know who that person is and never heard from him/her over last two days). Corporate CEO is handling this incident.

Both countries are members of ASEAN economic zone, AirAsia takes full advantage of ASEAN and consolidates all its operations in Malaysia. This so called Indonesian Flagged plane goes to MX base in Malaysia. Not sure even AirAsia Indonesia has a separate ops center.

Common mistake to assume it is an Malaysian airline, even Indonesian/Malaysian made that same mistake. Similar to Thai AirAsia, Indonesia AirAsia has a separate fleet, management structure and set of crew. Only the AirAsia Malaysia based their operation in Malaysia, the rest based their operation and maintenance in their own country.

As stated also by MillwallSean, the Indonesia AirAsia CEO is pretty much on the ground handling this unfortunate incident, with Fernandes as the face of the whole AirAsia brand giving his full support.

It might be too pedantic, but as aviation forum I think we should get the fact straight about aviation industry.

Just heard news that USS Sampson and one Chinese type-054a (HuangShan) frigate is on the route to the scene to help the SAR operation.
Though the saying might be bitter, the truth is always beautiful.
 
mandala499
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 1:38 am

OK... I was in Batam when this happened, and my phone was going crazy before they declared the aircraft officially lost... and has been crazy since... Flew back to Jakarta that night, and the phone still went crazy down to this minute (writing this between interviews, discussions with members of SAR, Air Asia, and the NTSC, etc...)

At least the media frenzy has reduced slightly to enable me to open these threads.

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 1):
That is debatable. I think it is considering the company operating the flight was Indonesian and the parent company is called something slightly different, as far as I know.

Indonesia Air Asia has a lot more independence than Thai Air Asia... more on this below...

Quoting Independence76 (Reply 2):
I apologize if this has been mentioned before, but was the aircraft equipped with ACARS?

No, it does not.

Quoting Carfield (Reply 3):
For Indonesia Air Asia, Air Asia owns 49%, while a local tycoon owns 51%. The planes are all Indonesian-registered, including this particular plane involved in the crash. They even use their own two letter code, and ICAO and call sign.

When people talk about this crash, I always remind them that it is Indonesian Air Asia.

Just curious if any other a.net experts have any insight about the country of origin of these Air Asia branches.

Indonesia Air Asia is 51% Indonesian owned, and this is not just on paper. It is actual. The Indonesian owners are also behind all the leases of its aircraft. This is an Indonesian company paying a brand license fee to Air Asia, who in turn bought 49% of it... when AWAir was bought the current owners of Indonesia Air Asia.

Even when they swapped several aircraft between QZ and AK, the paperwork nightmare had to be done to the extent that this is not just "merely a local proxy for AK".

Quoting pvjin (Reply 4):
Yeah, well here in Finland the media was reporting how a Malaysia has had such a bad luck when they just lost third Malaysian aircraft, despite it being an Indonesian based and registered aircraft owned by an Indonesian registered company.

If they referred to it as a Malaysian brand, yes... but a Malaysian company, no.
Again, the media around the world is having difficulties in differentiating the two.

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 10):
All of that hardly matters, because the true CEO is still Mr. T.F. based out of KUL, and people will still link the accident to the mother brand "AirAsia".

Incorrect. TF is the CEO of the brand... he has no say in how Indonesia Air Asia handles this on legal obligations, etc... he is there only to provide support and show for the brand.

Quoting awthompson (Reply 18):
As I have stated in an earlier thread and one or two other posters have hinted, I don't believe QZ8501 was brought down by in flight damage/breakup as a result of an unexpected encounter with severe thunderstorm related turbulence, wind shear, hail, water ingestion etc. etc. I also doubt that 'severe' or 'extreme' airframe icing was at play.

I doubt it was icing. Something, took this aircraft out of its normal envelope pretty quickly... Under normal circumstances, you do not climb 4000ft and lose 100kts of groundspeed, and do so in less than a minute.
The information I got is that from 32000 to 36300 and down again to 24000ft or so took just over a minute.

Quoting awthompson (Reply 18):
Why? ....... WelI, for starters I don't believe a crew used to flying in the region messed up so bad as to get their airplane into such a situation!

There are some new weather phenomenon that's occurring in the region, there was something unique that never occured before... which may have had a factor, but I won't divulge this until I get more information...
But crew messing up so bad? It happens more than you think... and that's not limited to Indonesian airlines. I've seen local and foreign operators screw up their fuel escape plan here whenever a CB turns up over Jakarta... Seen also how some local and foreign operator asking for a deviation that would make them get closer to more severe weather, only for us on the ground to say, "WTH is he thinking?", followed a few minutes later by the aircraft realizing the mistake and we on the ground have a chuckle and laugh about it.

I flew the day before and the evening of the day of QZ8501 going missing, within one of the same significant weather areas, but still about 200NM west of the location... All you can see is cloud, with nice "rapidly accumulating and dissipating cumulus" happening all around and surrounding the CBs... while the ride was mostly only light chop... we did have some moderate chop... and some flights reported "worse"...

Previously we had you westerners laugh at us when we report icing at -40C "because it's too cold"... we now have icing at -45C and there was an instance a few days ago of suspected icing claimed at -50C...

Quoting awthompson (Reply 18):
With QZ8501, temporary loss of airspeed data as a result of pitot icing, followed by incorrect/confused crew reaction is a big possibility akin to AF447. Or indeed some other factor resulting in an inadvertent stall at high altitude is again very possible.

We may be looking at something more catastrophic, some of the data points that way, but not yet conclusive.

Quoting aircatalonia (Reply 24):
If the airplane didn't suffer a catastrophic event at cruise why didn't ADS-B broadcast information during their descent?

Ding dong... this is one clue...
But, Mode-S readings were available for the over 1 minute or so of climb and descend prior to disappearance. All I can say is, it ain't a pretty picture.

Quoting aircatalonia (Reply 24):
Surely it didn't drop 30,000ft in less than 2 or 3 minutes, or did it?

As I said, "it ain't a pretty picture"...

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 28):
Like others posted for all intentional purpose AirAsia is an Malaysian Airline. Sure plane is registered in Indonesia and there is a AirAsia Indonesia CEO (we don't know who that person is and never heard from him/her over last two days). Corporate CEO is handling this incident.

Sorry. Indonesia Air Asia CEO went to Surabaya immediately after Air Asia confirmed the loss, and he's been in the press conferences as well with his statement as Indonesia Air Asia CEO on behalf of Indonesia Air Asia. Tony is there as the Group CEO, and is there on behalf of the brand. Indonesia Air Asia CEO is handling this incident.

I know the former CEO (dealt with him a few times), and there is a task sharing between him and the current CEO, and what is Tony's domain, and what is QZ's domain, is pretty clear within Air Asia.

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 28):
Not sure even AirAsia Indonesia has a separate ops center.

It does. It has it's own ops center, it's own dispatch procedures, it's own operating procedures (different from AK). It has some degree of sales autonomy (more so than Mandala when it was with Tiger), it has it's own recruitment policies and standards (different from AK and FD), etc, etc. It has some product differences with FD and AK... etc...
As I said, the aircraft are not owned by the group, the ones that are owned, are owned by QZ, and the leases are in the name of QZ instead of leased to AK and subleased to QZ, although it takes the aircraft from AK's order books, but the financing is QZ. The financing of by AK was limited to the 737 days. I can go on further but I will end up divulging company secrets (including detailed aircraft ownership etc... even though I don't work for QZ).

I know the QZ ops pretty well... it's pretty different than AK. And AK is not involved in the investigation. QZ's own investigation doesn't include AK guys (unless already seconded to QZ), and Airbus has sent a team here to talk with QZ (and not AK, although AK will be informed of developments due to the similar weather environment).

But yes, I understand why people see this still as a "Malaysian gig"...
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
motif1
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 1:47 am

Wow! All I can say is thank you, Mandala!

Thank you Pihero for the summary!

M1

[Edited 2014-12-29 18:24:23]
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intsim
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 2:02 am

Thank you Pihero, even though it hasn't changed it is beneficial to see again after part 3...

Thank you Mandala.
 
Part147
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 2:05 am

Seconded on the Thank You to Mandala also!

A very disturbing picture is gradually being formed from the facts gleaned so far... RIP to all on board!
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ltbewr
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 2:06 am

It is really scary that something happened in 2-3 minutes that somehow caused the loss of this aircraft.

I wonder if airlines that operate flights in the Equatorial zones as well as major national airline safety regulators, need to look at changes in pilot training and to some extent aircraft systems, especially auto-pilots, to improve flying safety in this known risk zone. Such changes may be far more effective in saving lives and money than trying to come up with the number of suggestions made here and elsewhere that have serious cost issues and practical effectiveness.

[Edited 2014-12-29 18:41:26]
 
holzmann
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 2:20 am

I vaguely remember some of the lessons of AF447 relating to the flight computer and how it would 'average' the inputs of the two pilots. I also remember talk about lack of feedback, horns, beeps, etc. In a confusing scenario, the FC didn't know what the FO was doing and vice versa. I would argue that 2-3 minutes is plenty of time to bring down a plane, especially if you disorient the pilots and put them in a situation where they are neither communicating effectively with each other nor as a team. Perhaps not enough lessons were learned from AF 447 and not enough criticism voiced at Airbus' implementation of its side-sticks, flight computers, warnings, safe guards, etc.

Just rambling here.

[Edited 2014-12-29 18:22:47]
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hivue
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 2:24 am

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 51):
Something, took this aircraft out of its normal envelope pretty quickly...

AF447 departed its normal flight envelope pretty quickly. I gather that's not hard to do at altitude if something goes wrong. Of course, AF447 remained intact to impact, but that may just have been a weird exception to the rule. I remember how surprised many were when, early on, the investigation claimed the airplane went from FL370 to the water without breaking up.

[Edited 2014-12-29 18:27:33]
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
hivue
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 2:26 am

Quoting holzmann (Reply 56):
Just rambling here.

Agreed.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
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777Jet
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 2:33 am

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 51):

Thank you Mandala499 for that excellent reply!

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 51):
I doubt it was icing. Something, took this aircraft out of its normal envelope pretty quickly... Under normal circumstances, you do not climb 4000ft and lose 100kts of groundspeed, and do so in less than a minute.
The information I got is that from 32000 to 36300 and down again to 24000ft or so took just over a minute.
Quoting mandala499 (Reply 51):
There are some new weather phenomenon that's occurring in the region, there was something unique that never occured before... which may have had a factor, but I won't divulge this until I get more information...
Quoting mandala499 (Reply 51):
As I said, "it ain't a pretty picture"...

That gets me thinking about Supercell Thunderstorms, especially the Forward Flank Downdraft (FFD) and Rear Flank Downdraft (RFD) elements of a Supercell structure as well as the large hail and downbusts that come with such violent storms.

We know what water ingestion and hail damage has done to aircraft in the past: TACA 110 & Southern 242 for instance.

I am just wondering if this plane might have encountered a mix of large hail at high altitude combined with violent downbursts that together put the plane through more than it could take...
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 2:34 am

Quoting MillwallSean (Reply 44):
So thats a bit unfair.
Quoting mandala499 (Reply 51):
But yes, I understand why people see this still as a "Malaysian gig"...

Thank you both for your insights, I accept my statement was unfair to AirAsia Indonesia's CEO. When group has a flamboyant CEO, local CEO's won't get much attention by international media.

Overall AirAsia so far did a good job managing this incident. It appears DGCA also doing very good job so far for a Cat-II country!!
All posts are just opinions.
 
flyenthu
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 2:38 am

http://www.nst.com.my/node/67466

What do you all think of this possibility? I thought turbulence alone has never brought down a plane.

Thanks!
 
mandala499
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 2:38 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 41):
Yes.

They are registered HS- in Thailand (Thai Air Asia) and all other planes registered in Thailand for instance.

9M- is for Air Asia in Malaysia and all planes registered in Malaysia.

and PK- for Indonesia.

Quoting liquidair (Reply 43):
Can somebody please put together an actual factual timeline of the last five minutes of known altitude, speed and heading from the aircraft?

Not yet, although a clearer picture is forming based on information collected.

Quoting MillwallSean (Reply 44):
In general my opinion is that management of Air Asia, both local and corporate, has been doing a good job so far. They obviously had a plan ready for an event like this and have executed it with warmth and respect. I am pretty impressed with how well Air Asia and especially management has handled this. Dignified and gone the extra mile.

Their Emergency Response Plan is executed well.
All my friends and colleagues in Indonesia Air Asia declared to me that they were under the terms and conditions of the ERP and that there are things they can and cannot say as long as the ERP is in force. I was pretty impressed.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 47):
Kudos to Tony Fernandes, Air Asia & Indonesia for how they have gone about dealing with this tragic event thus far.

Don't forget to mention Sunu W, Indonesia Air Asia CEO, who's only been on the job for a few months (taking over from former CEO Dharmadi).

Quoting Pihero (Reply 48):
"Facts :

Aircraft was seen on radar at FL363 doing 354kts ground speed.
Crew requested deviations "due to weather" and change in altitude "due to turbulence".

Quoting Pihero (Reply 48):
"Some new details from AirNav Indonesia:

06:12

- QZ8501 requests left deviation from airway. Deviation approved.
- Pilot then requests climb to FL380
- ATC asks pilot to standby, due to nearby traffic and to coordinate with next sector (Singapore)

06:14

- ATC calls QZ8501 to approve climb to FL340
- No response received after 2 or 3 further attempts to contact
- ATC requests help from nearby aircraft to contact QZ8501

06:16

- ATC still cannot reach QZ8501
- Aircraft still observed on radar screen

06:17

- Radar contact lost
- Last reported altitude: FL290"

The reports I am receiving is that from the start of climb to the loss of radar contact, took just over a minute.

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 49):
Actually, Airbus aircraft transmit flight data CONSTANTLY from the airplane to Toulouse and to the airline's maintenance base. It sends out data regarding flight parameters, speed, engine performance--everything. Call Airbus in Toulouse and they can tell you exactly what happened just as they did with AF447. They had the flight data right up to the point of impact.

Incorrect. You need a datalink service for that either by ACARS on a time interval basis (minutes to hours depending on your preference), or through non-ACARS datalinks.
This aircraft does not have that service. Indonesia Air Asia does not use ACARS, nor any other datalink service, at least for this aircraft.
Indonesia Air Asia does keep recorded flight data downloaded periodically and sends it/shares to Airbus on a periodic basis. For Malaysia Air Asia, Thai Air Asia, or Air Asia X and Air Asia X Indonesia, I cannot comment because I do not know.
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Pohakuloa
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 3:04 am

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 51):
Under normal circumstances, you do not climb 4000ft and lose 100kts of groundspeed, and do so in less than a minute.
The information I got is that from 32000 to 36300 and down again to 24000ft or so took just over a minute.

Dear god! May he have mercy on those souls.

As grim and freakish this incident seems to have been, I for one and others here appreciate your insight Mandala499 (of which you are able to divulge) to what is no doubt a terribly delicate situation moving forward. What you have cautiously alluded to is this flight may have experienced nothing short of an unprecedented and as yet to be undocumented (first hand at least) weather phenomena that may be a new level of "normal." Dare I say, what can be conceived as past experiences before now should only be taken with a grain of salt and the realms of "very rare" cannot and should not be excluded just because it 'was' very rare.

Thank you Mandala499 for your willingness to share. I honestly didn't expect to see you here for another few days at the least. The aviation world is with you all in spirit, if not physically present.

Respectfully from this tiny rock in the Pacific,
Pohakuloa
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enilria
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 3:17 am

I have a question. They are saying they expanded the search area further.

1) I assume they began the search where they had the last radar contact before the plane went dark?
2) How far from that are they now searching?

At some point we can rule out a simple stall as the plane would make it hardly any distance from that event.

Also, at some point we can rule out the plane "breaking up in flight" as that would seemingly have happened when the transponder stopped squawking.

3) If the plane crashed on land wouldn't we almost certainly have an ELT signal?

4) Shouldn't they dispatch one of these ELT pinging ships immediately???

If the plane is not near the point where the transponder disappeared it begins to be more like MH370 IMHO.
 
dfambro
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 3:18 am

As with AF447, lots of discussion about the storms in the area of the plane. This event seems to have happened so quickly, however, it almost seems too fast to be a directly weather-related event. Makes me wonder about uncontained engine failure with catastrophic consquences.
 
kellmark
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 3:30 am

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 62):
Incorrect. You need a datalink service for that either by ACARS on a time interval basis (minutes to hours depending on your preference), or through non-ACARS datalinks.
This aircraft does not have that service. Indonesia Air Asia does not use ACARS, nor any other datalink service, at least for this aircraft.
Indonesia Air Asia does keep recorded flight data downloaded periodically and sends it/shares to Airbus on a periodic basis. For Malaysia Air Asia, Thai Air Asia, or Air Asia X and Air Asia X Indonesia, I cannot comment because I do not know.

Thanks for that info. Does anyone know if there is any separate comm system in this case between the airline and the aircraft in flight to relay critical weather information to the crew in flight by the operational control center/dispatch office? Some airlines have these systems, while others do not. It usually depends upon the national civil aviation authority as to whether they are required.

I also note that it is very early, and we really don't know what the probable cause of the tragedy is and many other factors besides weather could be involved. But we do know that the aircraft was flying in an area of some significant thunderstorm activity and was asking for deviations because of it.

I would say that there is a need in the industry for more than simply a "flight tracking" system which reports the position, altitude, speed and fuel status, etc. of the aircraft at a particular interval. There should be a "flight watch" system that requires someone at the airline, normally a qualified flight dispatcher/flight operations officer, to warn the flight crew of hazardous conditions and recommend a plan to avoid them.

The point is, that the flight should be warned in advance of entering a hazardous area, not simply be tracked as they fly into it.
 
heyjoojoo
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 3:39 am

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 51):

Hi Mandala499. Thanks for sharing your insight here.

Do you fly for another airlines? Are you a resident of any of those communities?
 
audidudi
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 3:54 am

The dispatch release would show all the weather forecasted enroute for that flight, and thus the captain should have seen that there were thunderstorms forecasted at the time that they would be flying in that area.
 
sidishus
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 3:59 am

"There are some new weather phenomenon that's occurring in the region, there was something unique that never occured before... which may have had a factor, but I won't divulge this until I get more information...
But crew messing up so bad? It happens more than you think... and that's not limited to Indonesian airlines. I've seen local and foreign operators screw up their fuel escape plan here whenever a CB turns up over Jakarta... Seen also how some local and foreign operator asking for a deviation that would make them get closer to more severe weather, only for us on the ground to say, "WTH is he thinking?", followed a few minutes later by the aircraft realizing the mistake and we on the ground have a chuckle and laugh about it."



Paraphrasing what an old guy said, long before any of our times...

A'int Nuthin' New Under The Sun...

That bit of enduring wisdom fits for the "new" weather phenomena you have discovered...High altitude icing has been in existence ...especially in the immediate vicinity of Mesoscale Convective Systems ...MCS's... (don't know the term? look it up and learn all you can ...especially about how they factor as the primary ingredient in the turbulence encounters which are most likely to cause injuries in cruise) ...since Forever.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/MG/PDFs/ROG04_houze_MCS.pdf

ftp://ftp.at.fcen.uba.ar/aeronautica/TEORICAS/Papers/paper_turbulencia/sat%E9lites_EDR.pdf

You are just now discovering the phenomenon.

Indeed, the first aircraft that was more than most likely to have been lost to High Altitude Icing occurred in 1959:

http://www.weatherimagery.com/blog/ejects-into-thunderstorm/

So, why has something old become "New" again?

In a nutshell, tighter engineering tolerances...And lots more aircraft movements in susceptible regions.

Specific to high altitude icing, the GE Next GEN engines have been particularly susceptible to High Altitude Icing, to the point that an AD has been issued:

http://www.skybrary.aero/index.php/A...1_-_Potential_Implications_for_ATC

Plenty more to be gleaned about HIWC but this is a good start:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gsd/researc...day3/3Agency_Icing_HIWC-Strapp.pdf

In this age of engineering...and aviating...by "The Numbers" its mighty easy to think we have this world wired.

We don't. And this old world can send you to an unplanned encounter with 0 AGL in a heartbeat.

Check your ego (the greatest killer in Aviation). Learn all you can...and do your best to gain as much "old school" wisdom as can be had...

[Edited 2014-12-29 20:33:27]
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4holer
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 3:59 am

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 51):
There are some new weather phenomenon that's occurring in the region, there was something unique that never occured before... which may have had a factor, but I won't divulge this until I get more information...

I'm a weather geek as well as an airliner geek, and this statement has me all geeked out.
Sprites? Gigantic jets? Elves?
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hivue
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 4:16 am

Quoting enilria (Reply 64):
Shouldn't they dispatch one of these ELT pinging ships immediately???

DFDR/CVR "pinging" and the ELT are two different things.

Quoting sidishus (Reply 69):
A'int Nuthin' New Under The Sun...

  
AF447 looked "new" but it turned out to be pitot icing and the pilot stalling the airplane. MH370 looked "new" but it was almost certainly a hijacking (whether by crew or an outside party). I agree that the cause of QZ8501, once we know it, will have had a precedent.

[Edited 2014-12-29 20:16:56]
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DocLightning
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 4:25 am

Quoting hivue (Reply 71):
MH370 looked "new" but it was almost certainly a hijacking (whether by crew or an outside party).

You don't know that and nor does anyone else.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
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hivue
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 4:26 am

Quoting kellmark (Reply 66):
The point is, that the flight should be warned in advance of entering a hazardous area, not simply be tracked as they fly into it.

This is done now. METARs, NOTAMs, airline dispatch, pilot reports via ATC, etc.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
kellmark
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 4:28 am

Quoting audidudi (Reply 68):
The dispatch release would show all the weather forecasted enroute for that flight, and thus the captain should have seen that there were thunderstorms forecasted at the time that they would be flying in that area.

I understand that was likely the case. But that information is usually created anywhere from 1-3 hours prior to departure, in some airlines even earlier. Things can change a lot and the weather can become more severe or change in some significant way by the time the flight gets going. Many dispatchers/ flight operations officers have communicated with their flights after departure and advised them to change their route due to changes in the weather. Weather can be highly dynamic, both in its trend and strength.
 
hivue
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 4:31 am

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 72):
You don't know that and nor does anyone else.

True enough, but I will fearlessly predict that if we ever find out what happened to it it will not be a phenomenon never observed before.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
BestWestern
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 4:38 am

The pilot of AirAsia flight QZ8501, Iriyanto, 53, is described by colleagues and neighbors as a warm figure with an extraordinary performance as a jet fighter pilot prior to taking early retirement to join commercial airlines.

Iriyanto started out his career as an F-5 and F-16 fighter pilot after having graduated from the Adi Sucipto Air Force pilot school in 1983.

He joined the 14th squadron at Iswahjudi Air Force Base (AFB) in Madiun, East Java, staying for around 10 years.

“He was one of the best graduates,” said former coordinating political, legal and security affairs minister Djoko Suyanto, who once trained Iriyanto, as quoted by tempo.co.

Adisucipto Air Base commander First Marshal Yadi I Sutanadika deemed Iriyanto a “smart pilot”.

“Iriyanto was known as one of the ‘Flight Leaders’ on F-5 Tigers, the leading fighter jet in the 1980s,” said Yadi, who once served with Iriyanto in the 14th squadron, on Monday, as quoted by Antara news agency.

In the mid-1990s, Iriyanto took early retirement and landed a job with commercial airline Adam Air, which was forced to close in 2008 after a string of accidents.

Iriyanto also served with Merpati Airline, Sriwijaya Airline prior to joining AirAsia.

AirAsia said Iriyanto had logged a total of 20,537 flying hours, of which 6,053 flying hours were logged during his tenure with AirAsia, while the copilot, French national Remi Emmanual Plesel, had 2,247 hours.

Iriyanto, born on Dec. 12, 1961, married Widya Sukati Putri before settling in Sidoarjo, East Java — an hour’s drive from Surabaya in East Java where flight QZ8501 departed for Singapore.

- See more at: http://m.thejakartapost.com/news/201...raduates.html#sthash.J2uJnSjF.dpuf
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32andBelow
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 4:43 am

Quoting kellmark (Reply 74):
I understand that was likely the case. But that information is usually created anywhere from 1-3 hours prior to departure, in some airlines even earlier. Things can change a lot and the weather can become more severe or change in some significant way by the time the flight gets going. Many dispatchers/ flight operations officers have communicated with their flights after departure and advised them to change their route due to changes in the weather. Weather can be highly dynamic, both in its trend and strength.

The weather on a dispatch release expires after an hour
 
FLY744
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 4:45 am

There is a phenomenon known as High Ice Water Content (HIWC) which is usually associated with major convective activity that results in more water content being contained in high altitude clouds than was previously thought possible.
This phenomenon is thought to have been responsible for a number of otherwise unexplained aircraft icing events.
Boeing have published a very informative Flight Operations Technical Bulletin which is available at http://www.vipa.asn.au/sites/default...110516%20Ice%20Crystal%20Icing.pdf
There is also an excellent article in Boeing's Aero magazine available at http://www.vipa.asn.au/sites/default/files/pdf/member/AERO_Q407.pdf
This form of high altitude icing is not new but does seem to have become more common in the last 15 years or so, particularly in the equatorial regions of the Asia/Pacific.
While most reports of this type of icing have involved engine effects, it has also caused some airframe icing most notably around sharp protrusions such as Total Air Temperature (TAT) probes.
Aviation in itself is not inherently dangerous.
 
zippy
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 4:47 am

Quoting pvjin (Reply 4):

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 1):

Yeah, well here in Finland the media was reporting how a Malaysia has had such a bad luck when they just lost third Malaysian aircraft, despite it being an Indonesian based and registered aircraft owned by an Indonesian registered company.

With same logic we could say that today a 747 of an American airline had landing gear issues, after all Virgin Group also owns a part of Virgin America & the aircraft was made in the US.

I think there's a big distinction to be made between Virgin Group components and the AirAsia brand. The Virgin airlines, and especially Virgin America, are fairly independent. IIRC, the American government did their best to keep SRB as far away from decision making with Virgin America as possible. The distinct Virgin airlines all maintain their own web sites and frequent flier programs.

Contrast that to AirAsia. Last I checked if you wanted to purchase tickets for any AirAsia subsidiary, you'd do so through the main airasia.com site. Likewise a Google search for Indonesia AirAsia, for me at least, turns up airasia.com. And, of course, the EU saw fit to allow Indonesia AirAsia to operate in their space, so I'd imagine at least one regulatory body found Indonesia AirAsia more akin to their non-Indonesian counterparts.

Hell, look at the Indonesia AirAsia livery and compare it to the Virgin ones. Indonesia AirAsia deemphasizes Indonesia significantly, and the Virgin brands all have substantially more distinct liveries. Regardless of the corporate reality, I expect the AirAsia brand as a whole to take a hit -- and I don't think it's so far fetched to label Indonesia AirAsia as a Malaysian airline.
 
sidishus
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 4:47 am

Best analysis of satellite imagery at the approximate time of the aircraft loss:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/17443

Some notes and asides:

Do NOT confuse IR imagery colors with radar reflectivity colors!!!!!!!

Apples and Oranges.

CNN has been HORRIBLE about this...

Basic Aviation Wx 101 tells you that the trop is higher at the equator... So that means that cloud tops will be COLDER at the tropopause!.

Those deeply cold temps of the MCS cloud shields are NOT a solid mass of thunderstorms!

If you are going to use this imagery in an operational setting...YOU MUST INCLUDE LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA TO ADEQUATELY DEFINE THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MCS!!!!

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog..._lightning_gulf_coast_mcs_anim.gif

Note how the cloud shield is much more extensive than the areas of actual convection.

[Edited 2014-12-29 20:57:04]

[Edited 2014-12-29 21:13:48]
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hivue
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 4:48 am

Quoting FLY744 (Reply 78):
This form of high altitude icing is not new but does seem to have become more common in the last 15 years or so

More common or more commonly reported?
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
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777Jet
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 4:59 am

Quoting bestwestern (Reply 76):
The pilot of AirAsia flight QZ8501, Iriyanto, 53, is described by colleagues and neighbors as a warm figure with an extraordinary performance as a jet fighter pilot prior to taking early retirement to join commercial airlines.

And this sad story:

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/pers...on-at-funeral-of-another-son-.html

"Captain Iriyanto’s father had last seen his son last week at the funeral of another of his sons who died of diabetes."

My heart goes out to this father who has lost two sons in such a short time. My prayers to him and to all affected by this tragedy.  
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
billreid
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 5:21 am

The last blip showing the airspeed well outside parameters is disturbing. CNN's expert pilot indicated the aircraft lift would have stalled at that speed, and perhaps ended up in a coffin corner.

I sincerely hope the pilots didn't end up in alternate laws and became confused.
Imagine where that would lead.

Let's hope it is something entirely different, because if it is a repeat of AF447 there will be an endless argument on human relationship with flight management systems.
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BestWestern
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 5:23 am

Jakarta post claims his brother died ten days ago.
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bohica
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 5:38 am

Sky news is reporting that objects resembling an evacuation slide and an aircraft door have been spotted.

I'm taking this with a grain of salt until it's confirmed.
 
BestWestern
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 5:40 am

Mandala, there was an engineer onboard as part of the crew. Was this due to a potential issue/snag/monitoring of the aircraft or was he positioning to Singapore.
Greetings from Hong Kong.... a subsidiary of China Inc.
 
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RJ321
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 5:41 am

Breaking: the Indonesian authorities announce finding an object that looks like a floating raft belonging to an aircraft. Let's hope there are survivors.
 
asetiadi
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 5:50 am

Bangka Belitung Rustam Effendi governor and police chief Brigadier General Billy S says there are fishermen who found the flake. About 2-4 meters in length and red and white. This approximate location. According to the two officials, the location of the findings in the waters Belinyu, Bangka Belitung. Fishermen who report was Taha and he claimed to see objects floating in the ocean. Through google maps facility, which can be detected in the waters Belinyu. The location is at the northern tip of the island of Bangka Belitung. Quite far from Louth, capital of Bangka Belitung province. Authorities are not authorized to send ships now because of high waves. Finally, Sriwijaya Commander Major General Iskandar M Sahil sent a helicopter to the scene. "Deputy already sent the M35 to the target. 1 helicopter closer to the location," Iskandar said in a joint post Manggar, Tuesday (12/30/2014).
 
laxboeingman
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 5:53 am

Here is the link to the tweet saying that objects have been spotted, but not confirmed.

https://twitter.com/airlinegeeks/status/549804318027956224
The opinions I post are mine and not of any organization I am affiliated with.
 
flyenthu
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 5:57 am

Quoting billreid (Reply 83):
Let's hope it is something entirely different, because if it is a repeat of AF447 there will be an endless argument on human relationship with flight management systems.

As these modern airliners are extremely automated, very rarely requiring manual flying in challenging situations such as in the cases of QZ8501, AF447, I think expecting pilots to respond appropriately and quickly is probably not fair- even if they go through simulations in regular intervals.

I believe that a solution would be the presence of a dedicated copilot who is trained only in manual flying and specifically trained in situations where autopilot disengages and high altitude stalls. That would be the only job of this person. I think "some" current pilots freak out when autopilots disengages because they simply are not accustomed to these situations, even if they have logged thousands of hours of flying.

Think of clear air turbulence which is a far common occurrence. Pilots handle this very well, because they are used to it. I think it is time to start talking about this issue.
 
laxboeingman
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 5:58 am

Quoting bestwestern (Reply 86):

Mandala, there was an engineer onboard as part of the crew. Was this due to a potential issue/snag/monitoring of the aircraft or was he positioning to Singapore.


I don't think we received a for sure answer about this.
The opinions I post are mine and not of any organization I am affiliated with.
 
seat1a
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 6:01 am

CNN now reporting that debris spotted in Java Sea. (10pm PST).
 
laxboeingman
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 6:03 am

Quoting flyenthu (Reply 90):

The first paragraph of your answer is a big problem that has been discussed at length in the previous parts of this thread. I have said from the beginning that pilots rely too much on automation.

As for the reply that you quoted, I think that if the cause is the same as that of AF 447's crash then the uproar will be about what Airbus didn't change, why they didn't and that they and every other manufacturer needs to make the changes now.
The opinions I post are mine and not of any organization I am affiliated with.
 
laxboeingman
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 6:05 am

Quoting seat1a (Reply 92):

Many organizations are reporting that debris has been seen. I don't think anything has been confirmed, however.
The opinions I post are mine and not of any organization I am affiliated with.
 
asetiadi
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 6:06 am

yes, debris spotted in Java sea, was found by a local fisherman, found a floating objects in red and white color 2-4 meters length. But the objects are not confirmed yet whether they belong to the missing plane or not. Still waiting for confirmation.

Meanwhile, tomorrow there's a plan to bring all family relatives to the location/area of the missing plane, if weather condition is permitted.
 
ipodguy7
Posts: 458
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 6:09 am

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 89):

Here is the link to the tweet saying that objects have been spotted, but not confirmed.

https://twitter.com/airlinegeeks/status/549804318027956224

Associated Press now reporting this, adding credibility.

Further, here is the Straits Times (Singapore Newspaper) report that an emergency raft may have been found...
http://www.straitstimes.com/news/asi...ling-emergency-slide-plane-door-se

[Edited 2014-12-29 22:14:49]
AA/DL/NW/CO/UA/US/B6/AS/AC/FI/NY/EI/BD/BA/AF/AZ/DY/SK/QF/JQ/JL
 
laxboeingman
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 6:11 am

I just got an AP push notification that says "Indonesia Search and Rescue says debris possibly linked to missing AirAsia plane spotted."
The opinions I post are mine and not of any organization I am affiliated with.
 
seat1a
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 6:14 am

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 94):

Agreed. Do you know what the confirmation process involves? Are photographs taken from search planes/boats sent back to airline or Airbus officials to confirm, or is debris sent back for confirmation and analysis?

Thank you.
 
flyenthu
Posts: 590
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Missing - Part 4

Tue Dec 30, 2014 6:15 am

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 93):
I think that if the cause is the same as that of AF 447's crash then the uproar will be about what Airbus didn't change, why they didn't

I don't know what could Airbus have changed post AF 447. Isn't Boeing's 777, 787s fly-by-wire also? Aren't all of these modern aircrafts like A320s, 330s, Boeing 777s, 787s all hyper-automated? I think the conversation ought to be about the problems on heavily reliance on automation.

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