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EK413
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Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 8:12 am

Hi All,

As the previous thread has received beyond +200 responses Part 7 has been created to continue the conversation.

The previous thread can be found here Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 6 (by jetblueguy22 Dec 31 2014 in Civil Aviation)

EK413
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asetiadi
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 11:33 am

Source detik.com:

Latest News:

...., there are three bodies were still sitting in the chair of the series and wear safety belt. "They still wear clothing and seat belts," said Air Force Maj Trinanda officers at Halim Perdanakusumah air base, Jakarta, Friday (01/02/2015) .

Trinanda one Air Force officer who participated in the South Korean-owned Orion aircraft. The position of the bodies that float with a chair and swayed arise drowning in the waves. "Shoes are also still in place. There is one who wears jeans," he added. The discovery of three bodies were then reported to the KRI Bung Tomo. RI warships were then slid to a given coordinate and perform evacuation.
 
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 12:32 pm

Quoting 675kts (Reply 189):
The simple matter is we can only deal in factual information right now - sudden climb, loss of airspeed, sudden loss of altitude.
Quoting flightsimer (Reply 202):
The data as it was reported is a fact, it should be deemed accurate until it is proved otherwise. Saying, "well it could have been inaccurate" does not make the initial data any less factual as it's not someone's opinion.

I agree that we can only deal in facts. But the facts right now is only that the flight crashed and the signals sent via ADS-B/secondary radar indicates that the aircraft climbed and descended rapidly. We don't know for certain if it did. The Aeroperu 757 sent data back saying it was cruising at altitude while it was descending rapidly towards the sea.
The altitude displayed on secondary rader is provided by the air data system on the aircraft and if it gets corrupt data it will only show corrupt data. We won't know until the DFDR and CVR has been analyzed.

/Lars
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 12:33 pm

Quoting asetiadi (Reply 1):
and perform evacuation.

Again the false friend in Bahasa: "evakuasi" = "securing and retrieval of objects"?

Quoting asetiadi (Reply 1):

These are indeed interesting news.


David
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 12:40 pm

Quoting asetiadi (Reply 1):
The position of the bodies that float with a chair and swayed arise drowning in the waves.

I disagree with that conclusion/hypothesis. Quite a few of the AF447 victims were also found still strapped to their seats and we know they did not die from drowning.
Let's await autopsy results before jumping to conclusions. (And yeah, I know I should probably tell this to the people at detik.com, not you personally.)
42
 
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 1:11 pm

LovesCoffee From United States of America, joined May 2012, 127 posts, RR: 1
Reply 201, posted Thu Jan 1 2015 14:50:42 your local time (5 hours 7 minutes 50 secs ago) and read 5147 times: Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting aerodog (Reply 172):
If both engines separated, that could explain the zoom climb a few thousand feet followed by what ever else may have happened.

Let the flaming begin...

Not flaming, but if both engines separated, what powered the AC to climb?


inertia. Gaining height by bleeding off speed. H=v²/2 recklessly ignoring drag.
Coincidentally, the plane lost horizontal speed.

Something else: At the peak of the climb, there may have been considerable negative G-forces.
How much can the plane sustain, and how much can the crew sustain without going unconscious?
 
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 1:49 pm

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 5):
Something else: At the peak of the climb, there may have been considerable negative G-forces.
How much can the plane sustain, and how much can the crew sustain without going unconscious?

Transport aircraft certification g-limits are +2.5* ** to -1.0. Given the 1.5x safety factor, a transport category aircraft is certified to handle +3.75 to -1.5 without structural failure, although permanent deformation may occur above 1.0x maximum g-limit..


* +2.0 with flaps.
** IIRC 3.8G is required in some cases.
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BestWestern
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 1:55 pm

Three more articles in the Jakarta post.


A search and rescue team from Russia arrived in Jakarta on Friday to help with the search for missing AirAsia flight QZ8501.

"Two aircraft of the Emergencies Ministry, Il-76 and Be-200, landed at the airport in Jakarta," a representative of the Russian Emergencies Ministry, Alexander Drobyshevsky, was reported as saying by Russian online news portal sputniknews.com on Friday.

Drobyshevsky added that there were more than 70 rescuers on board.

The Be-200 is an amphibious aircraft while the Il-76 is a heavy transport aircraft.

The team arrived with special equipment, including a Folkon remote-controlled deep-water vehicle, an acoustic echo sounder, boats and engines for the equipment.

Earlier on Friday, Drobyshevsky said Russia sent the team based on a request by Indonesia and that Russia had initially offered Indonesia assistance in recovering the aircraft on Dec. 29.

Russian SAR personnel were previously involved in the search for a Russian-made Sukhoi Superjet-100 that crashed into Mount Salak, Bogor, West Java, in 2012.

- See more at: http://m.thejakartapost.com/news/201...t-qz8501.html#sthash.xeNSIkXn.dpuf


National Search and Rescue Agency (Basarnas) chief Air Chief Marshal FH Bambang Soelistyo said that as of Friday evening, 30 bodies of AirAsia QZ8501 passengers had been recovered from the waters off Pangkalan Bun, Central Kalimantan.

“In total we have recovered 30 bodies; 10 bodies have been flown to Surabaya [East Java], four are in Pangakalan Bun, seven are on [naval vessel] KRI Bung Tomo, one on [Malaysian naval vessel] KD Pahang and eight bodies are in Surabaya,” Bambang told the press on Friday evening at Basarnas headquarters in Central Jakarta.

“We have also recovered debris from the plane, but I won’t go into detail.”

The team also detected the presence of aviation turbine fuel (avtur) in the search area.

He said the joint Search and Rescue (SAR) team was being challenged by bad weather in the operation, such as strong winds and high waves. (nfo)(++++)

- See more at: http://m.thejakartapost.com/news/201...-evening.html#sthash.uEUGzSo9.dpuf


The East Java Police’s Disaster Victim Identification (DVI) team identified three more AirAsia QZ8501 passengers on Friday afternoon.

East Java Police DVI chief Comr. Sr. Budiyono said the bodies of Grayson Herbert Linaksita, Kevin Alexander Soetjipto and Khairunisa Haidar Fauzi had been identified.

Grayson, 11, lived in Surabaya, East Java, with his family while Kevin was a student at Melbourne’s Monash University in Australia whose family lives in Malang, a city near Surabaya.

Meanwhile, Khairunisa was a flight attendant from Palembang, South Sumatra.

Budiyono said that the three remains had been released to their families on Friday evening.

"We are now examining four more bodies [at Bhayangkara Hospital],” he said.

He said that the DVI team had received antemortem records of family members of the passengers.

He said the team did not have the antemortem records related to AirAsia QZ8501 co-pilot Remi Emmanuel Plesel.

- See more at: http://m.thejakartapost.com/news/201...entified.html#sthash.AQDdCss7.dpuf
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asetiadi
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 1:57 pm

AirAsia searchers may have spotted tail of jet; 30 bodies recovered

Latest Update
 
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:10 pm

Quoting bestwestern (Reply 7):
A search and rescue team from Russia arrived in Jakarta on
Friday to help with the search for missing AirAsia flight QZ8501.

Also French and British teams have been sent to help the with the search and investigation.

Quoting Reuters:

(Reuters) - France's crash investigation agency said its specialist black box search
team and equipment would arrive early Friday at the search area for the AirAsia flight
which crashed on Sunday en route from Indonesia to Singapore.

France’s BEA crash investigation agency assists in the investigation of any air
crash involving an Airbus (AIR.PA) aircraft because the company is France-based.

---

Quoting AAIB:

AAIB assisting in search for Air Asia QZ 8501 flight recorders – update

An AAIB investigator has arrived in Singapore and has met with Singaporean air
accident experts who are assisting the Indonesian investigation. This follows an
offer of help by the UK government to Indonesian and Singaporean authorities which was accepted.
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BestWestern
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:16 pm

The tail fin findings are not confirmed by SAR, but using a single high ranking source in the navy.
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:17 pm

Quoting anfromme (Reply 4):
I disagree with that conclusion/hypothesis. Quite a few of the AF447 victims were also found still strapped to their seats and we know they did not die from drowning.
Let's await autopsy results before jumping to conclusions. (And yeah, I know I should probably tell this to the people at detik.com, not you personally.)

Water in the lungs would indicate drowning. The nature of the traumatic injuries would give a clue to the type of impact. There have been a few more bodies found, but as far as I know, no public comment on what clues they provide.
 
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:17 pm

Quoting thunderboltdrgn (Reply 9):
Also French and British teams have been sent to help the with the search and investigation.

Yep, the BEA attend all Airbus investigations, and one of the 5 acoustic "ping" detectors is British, so that presumably explains AAIB involvement.
Down with that sort of thing!
 
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:32 pm

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 5):

How would the loss affect the CoG?

I'm guessing also that losing a significant amount of weight would enable a steeper climb?
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:55 pm

Quoting liquidair (Reply 13):
How would the loss affect the CoG?

if i read Pihero's explanation about weight distribution right, CoG would move backward leading to a nose up attitude. Since the wings certainly provide much more lift than the stabilizers I guess it would not move that much.
A single A320-engine weighs approx. 2,4 tons (metric). Does not seem that significant to me, lets say 10% of the weight of the plane.

From the guts of a non-pilot: I don't think loss of the engines can be the main cause of the climb. Planes have loste engines before, without suddenly climbing like a rocket.
 
ukair
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 3:05 pm

I dont get how such an experience pilot can fly into a storm when they have meteorological charts to look at before making the flight plan to see if they should take a different route than a straight line, maybe the charts were not good ones
 
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 3:06 pm

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 14):

It does seem slightly impossible... But if combined with a violent updraft?

On the subject of the data from the transponders... Shouldn't it be fairly simple to calculate if the climb and descent rates correspond mathematically?

As in, it cannot descend at 24kfpm for two minutes type of thing. I ask because I don't know what or how much data was transmitted.
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 3:08 pm

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 3):

Yeah he keeps saying evacuation which is confusing me. Did they actually perfrom an emergency evaucation??
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 3:22 pm

Quoting ukair (Reply 15):

I dont get how such an experience pilot can fly into a storm when they have meteorological charts to look at before making the flight plan to see if they should take a different route than a straight line, maybe the charts were not good ones

I confess i haven't followed every post but I don't think it is even know if they flew into a thunderstorm. Way to early to have the faintest idea about pilot decision making.

There were thunderstorms in the area, but you have to remember that during certain seasons in this region you can count on thunderstorms pretty much every day. Thunderstorms in the tropics can develop very quickly. A forecast that was valid two hours before may well be obsolete already. It's not as easy as looking at a forecast and plotting a course.
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lancelot07
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 3:22 pm

Quoting ukair (Reply 15):

I dont get how such an experience pilot can fly into a storm

Who says he did ?

Quoting liquidair (Reply 16):
But if combined with a violent updraft?

On the subject of the data from the transponders... Shouldn't it be fairly simple to calculate if the climb and descent rates correspond mathematically?

I believe severe weather was ruled out more or less.
Yes, the math is quite easy. BUT how reliable is the data ? The investigation will check.

[Edited 2015-01-02 07:22:47]
 
Kaiarahi
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 3:33 pm

Quoting ukair (Reply 15):
I dont get how such an experience pilot can fly into a storm when they have meteorological charts to look at before making the flight plan to see if they should take a different route than a straight line, maybe the charts were not good ones

Take a look at the weather charts posted in Part 5   
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BruceSmith
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 3:37 pm

Quoting anfromme (Reply 4):
Quoting asetiadi (Reply 1):
The position of the bodies that float with a chair and swayed arise drowning in the waves.

I disagree with that conclusion/hypothesis. Quite a few of the AF447 victims were also found still strapped to their seats and we know they did not die from drowning.
Let's await autopsy results before jumping to conclusions. (And yeah, I know I should probably tell this to the people at detik.com, not you personally.)

That's the Indonesian to English translation going wonky again. I think what is being said is that the body that is still strapped to a seat is floating lower in the water and is getting swamped by the waves.

Quoting ukair (Reply 15):
A single A320-engine weighs approx. 2,4 tons (metric). Does not seem that significant to me, lets say 10% of the weight of the plane.

3.06% of MTOW

Quoting Frostyj (Reply 17):
Yeah he keeps saying evacuation which is confusing me. Did they actually perfrom an emergency evaucation??

If asetiadi uses the phrase performs evacuation, swap it for performs recovery. The news.detik.com site doesn't seem to have an English option and the Google translation isn't that good.
 
BruceSmith
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 3:42 pm

The Indonesian Ministry of Transport just announced that they were suspending QZ's operating permit pending a thorough investigation into whether they violated the terms of their permit, possibly with internal Ministry of Transport collusion.

Just translated on detik.com while testing Google Translate.
 
washingtonflyer
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 3:53 pm

I noticed all the cargo was in bay #3 near the wings. Any chance of a a sudden shift in CoG owing to a failure in the nets caused by heavy turbulence resulting in a loss of control? Similar to US 5481?
 
dtw2hyd
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 3:56 pm

Quoting Larshjort (Reply 2):

Excellent point, but I think this theory will be put down quickly by experts.

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 19):
I believe severe weather was ruled out more or less.

It was ruled out by a.net experts, but still there are issues with that conclusion.

Tim Vasquez based his "preliminary study" based on last known ADS-B location, which may every well be wrong. ADS-B transmits the location and electronics are known to transmit corrupt data particularly just before they get fried. Debris are located 60 miles away from last known ADS-B location. So unless currents moved surface debris 60 miles, the ADS-B data is questionable at best, hence the weather analysis.

BTW Tim Vasquez himself clearly states his study is evolving. So, for a.net experts to spin it as final is bit of exaggeration.

http://www.weathergraphics.com/awq8501/

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 19):
Yes, the math is quite easy. BUT how reliable is the data ? The investigation will check.

Again this could be based on corrupt data from SSR. Unless there is PSR coverage and data to corroborate SSR data, we have to wait for CVR/FDR data. Investigators may even ignore last recorded data points if there is no corroborating evidence.

Quoting asetiadi (Reply 8):

Thanks for your updates. In the absence of Indonesian English News TV channels, your posts are giving some heads up. Ignore comments about translation errors and keep up the good work.

Quoting BruceSmith (Reply 22):
The Indonesian Ministry of Transport just announced that they were suspending QZ's operating permit pending a thorough investigation into whether they violated the terms of their permit, possibly with internal Ministry of Transport collusion.

Per Malay Mail, they suspended Surabaya-Singapore route permit not AOC. Apparently QZ has permit to operate only 3 days.

[Edited 2015-01-02 08:07:16]
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liquidair
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 4:05 pm

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 19):

I think it's unlikely to be weather, seeing that there was only light to moderate turbulence in the area. Still cannot be ruled out though.
And icing is still a possibility.

Has it actually been confirmed the pilot requested a higher flight level due to weather? Or do we only know he requested a higher flight level?
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Finn350
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 4:06 pm

Central to the determination of the probable cause with currently available onformation is whether the ADS-B data is somehow corrupt.

Has anybody here knowledge how A320 air speed, climb rate and altitude data collection works? For example, if the two static ports give different readinga of altitude, what is displayed to the pilots and what is transferred as the altitude and climb rate data along with the ADS-B data stream?
 
BruceSmith
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 4:16 pm

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 24):
Per Malay Mail, they suspended Surabaya-Singapore route permit not AOC. Apparently QZ has permit to operate only 3 days.

Thanks for the clarification. Is this routine or something of specific concern? I don't recollect that happening to MH after the 370 incident.
 
heyjoojoo
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 4:17 pm

So, to date, there have been no "pings" from the aircraft's ELT, ACARS, black box, radar since it's last radio transmission?
 
asetiadi
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 4:38 pm

ok this one is interesting:

Freeze government AirAsia Surabaya-Singapore: Fly Sunday Not Licensed

The government suspended license AirAsia Surabaya-Singapore route. One reason, Air Asia QZ8501 is in violation of a permit to fly. The background of the license suspension Indonesia Air Asia is because PT. Indonesia Air Asia has violated the consent given. Public Kapuskom explains MoT JA Barata release received by AFP on Friday (01/02/2015) night. Described Barata, the DGCA Letter No. AU.008 / 30/6 / DRJU.DAU-2014 dated October 24, 2014 concerning Foreign Flight Permit Winter 2014/2015 period, that the Surabaya-Singapore route PP given to AirAsia Indonesia according to flight schedules. Namely on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday. "But in practice flight PT. Indonesia Air Asia-Singapore route Surabaya pp carried out permission granted, among other things on Sunday. And the Indonesia Air Asia does not apply for the change of the operation to the Directorate General of Civil Aviation. It is a violation of the agreement that has been given, "said Barata. The government through the Ministry of Transportation, through the Directorate General of Civil Aviation while license suspended Indonesia Air Asia flight route Surabaya-Singapore PP. The decision was effective from January 2 until the results of the evaluation and investigation.

Singapore AirAsia suspended his flying license. One reason for violating a permit to fly on Sunday. Appropriate permits issued, AirAsia just given permission to fly on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday. "The fact implementation Surabaya-Singapore route carried out permission granted that Sunday," said Head of Public Communication, Ministry of Transportation, JA Barata in description written, Friday (02/01/2014). If unauthorized AirAsia fly in Sunday, why is reckless? Who gave permission. Unfortunately Barata not specify clearly. Surely says Barata, DGCA had never issued a permit to fly to Sunday. "This violation of the agreement," said Barata. Until this has not been no information from Juanda Airport AirAsia or authority about permission to fly in Sunday's AirAsia.
 
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 4:41 pm

Quoting washingtonflyer (Reply 23):
I noticed all the cargo was in bay #3 near the wings. Any chance of a a sudden shift in CoG owing to a failure in the nets caused by heavy turbulence resulting in a loss of control? Similar to US 5481?

I had the same thought, but the numbers don't bear this out. The 1.3 tonnes of baggage could move at most 8 meters aft, shifting the CG of the 60+ tonne aircraft by about 1/6 of a meter, a tiny amount that is well within the range of acceptable trim. It would certainly not result in a rocket climb.
 
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 4:41 pm

Quoting heyjoojoo (Reply 28):
So, to date, there have been no "pings" from the aircraft's ELT, ACARS, black box, radar since it's last radio transmission?

I think that weather in the area has hampered efforts to check for pings from the black boxes. ELTs wouldn't have necessarily sent signals unless activated by a person (AFAIK). I'm sure in the next week we'll have news that they have pings from the boxes. First step was finding the aircraft.
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Kaiarahi
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 4:45 pm

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 24):
So, for a.net experts to spin it as final is bit of exaggeration.

Who said that?
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SimonDanger
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 5:01 pm

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 24):

From Vasquez's weather report: "Conclusion: Based on the available data and a close correlation of thunderstorm activity at the last received location, it appears that weather was a factor, or was a compounding factor. The most likely hazard, if weather was a factor, appears to be icing. This is only an assessment of best available meteorological information, and is not a final determination on the cause of the incident."

So going along the lines of an icing incident affecting flight attitude data within the cockpit, would a dramatic pull-up attitude coupled with an equally dramatic up-draft "feel" exactly like a high-G dive recovery, assuming complete IFR conditions?
 
BestWestern
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 5:03 pm

Asetiadi, could you provide links to your posts? If possible, could you check the English for big mistakes as sometimes what you are posting is not accurate due to translation problems?

I'm my opinion, and having worked on international route licence approvals at an airline before, is that the Sunday flying mistake was an admin oversight rather than flagrant breach of rules and had nothing to do with the accident.

Air Asia indonesia X had delayed the Bali Australia services just this week because of delays in route approvals from the Indonesian side so they don't seemingly flout the rules.
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rwessel
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 5:06 pm

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 14):
if i read Pihero's explanation about weight distribution right, CoG would move backward leading to a nose up attitude. Since the wings certainly provide much more lift than the stabilizers

Normally the horizontal stabilizer will produce downforce, not lift.

ed:

More precisely, lift in the downwards direction.

[Edited 2015-01-02 09:08:09]
 
dtw2hyd
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 5:25 pm

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 32):
Who said that?

Ok, how many times ANEs (A.Net Experts) and their sidekicks putdown any poor soul "speculated" it could be weather related. I lost count.

Quoting SimonDanger (Reply 33):
So going along the lines of an icing incident affecting flight attitude data within the cockpit, would a dramatic pull-up attitude coupled with an equally dramatic up-draft "feel" exactly like a high-G dive recovery, assuming complete IFR conditions?

I am not knowledgeable enough to interpret his analysis, but weather cannot be counted out as a factor. Based on available ADS-B data today it could be icing, move 60 miles tomorrow it could be lightning causing an electrical surge (again layman assumption).

Probably plane never did those physically near impossible movements and SSR could have transmitted corrupt data. For all we know it could have lost all power and glided back sea surface. Any thing is possible.

We cannot count in or out any factor at this point like ANEs trying to do on this thread.
All posts are just opinions.
 
Kaiarahi
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 5:48 pm

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 36):
Ok, how many times ANEs (A.Net Experts) and their sidekicks putdown any poor soul "speculated" it could be weather related. I lost count.

It depends who you count as expert, but none of Pihero, Mandala499, Zeke, WingedMigrator, LTC8K6, maxpower1954, michi (many of whom have significant experience flying in the region) have excluded weather.

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 36):
Probably plane never did those physically near impossible movements and SSR could have transmitted corrupt data.

For now it's the data we have. Technically, why do you think it may be corrupt?

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 36):
For all we know it could have lost all power and glided back sea surface. Any thing is possible.


  

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 36):
We cannot count in or out any factor at this point like ANEs trying to do on this thread.

They haven't.
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
David L
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 5:54 pm

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 36):
We cannot count in or out any factor at this point like ANEs trying to do on this thread.

I think you're twisting things a bit there. There have been quite a few allegations that QZ8501 went missing "right in the middle of a violent storm". All the "ANEs" have said is that there had been some misunderstanding of what certain images were showing, using Tim Vasquez's views to support that. The idea that we can't rule in or out any weather-related factor is precisely what the "ANEs" have been saying.

[Edited 2015-01-02 09:56:10]
 
michi
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 5:55 pm

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 36):
Ok, how many times ANEs (A.Net Experts) and their sidekicks putdown any poor soul "speculated" it could be weather related.

Writing here is sometimes difficult. To be understood is even more difficult  

But when someone says, they entered a storm and take the infrared satelite picture to back up their claim, it is nothing but wrong.

We have your so called ANEs correcting those wrong statements. This does not make the opposite true! The real world is more than black and white. It is quite complex actually. This complexity is somehow not understood by a lot of people.

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 36):
We cannot count in or out any factor at this point like ANEs trying to do on this thread.

When I read ANE stuff, I always get the impression that they do not factor anything out of discussion. But they evaluate all the known facts (which is very little so far) and try to find a logic explanation. They might do a 180 later, when dictated by new facts and findings. They are open to anything.

Personally I do not rule out a weather related factor. But I don't give it much weight, as it is unlikely with the facts known so far.
 
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DIRECTFLT
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 6:08 pm

From Newsday:

Of the 30 corpses recovered so far, 21 were found on Friday, many of them by a U.S. Navy ship, the USS Sampson, according to officials.

------------------------------

"Bodies found strapped to seats".... I assume....these were seats floating, and not at the bottom of the ocean, as the announcement of divers reaching the fuselage at the bottom of the sea have not yet been made.

Most of the news articles are simple regurgitations of some AP report, which did not detail finding of the bodies in the seats. Giving out an unclear story, is just the way news operates in the digital world now.... Clarification can come later....just run the story as is now!!!!!
Smoothest Ride so far ~ AA A300B4-600R ~~ Favorite Aviation Author ~ Robert J. Serling
 
RetiredWeasel
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 6:09 pm

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 36):
Probably plane never did those physically near impossible movements and SSR could have transmitted corrupt data.

I need to be convinced that Indonesian ATC even has ADS-B capability. The data that the A-net experts are referring to and analyzing comes from somewhere, but anybody competent with a soldering iron can build a $150 ADS-B receiver and indeed FlightAware and Flight24 utilizes these hobbyists to obtain some of their tracking info. Have the Indonesian authorities released the radar track and (if they have it), the ADS-B info.

I know all the press releases say ".. when ADS-B signal was lost...". But where's the official data? The leaked ATC radar scope position looks like an ordinary mode-C type track with associated (very limited) info. And..... I know when I retired in 2009, our 320s didn't even have the Mode-S capability (probability not the case here).

Somebody convince me that the flight parameters the A-net experts are quoting are 'official'! Or as i've said before, I'll wait for the FDR to be interpreted.
 
Kaiarahi
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 6:33 pm

Quoting RetiredWeasel (Reply 41):
I need to be convinced that Indonesian ATC even has ADS-B capability.

ADS-B has been a requirement in Indonesian airspace since December 12, 2013. 30 seconds on Google would have saved you looking silly.

Quoting michi (Reply 39):
Writing here is sometimes difficult. To be understood is even more difficult

  
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
dtw2hyd
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 6:40 pm

Quoting michi (Reply 39):
We have your so called ANEs correcting those wrong statements. This does not make the opposite true! The real world is more than black and white. It is quite complex actually. This complexity is somehow not understood by a lot of people.

Predicting/forecasting/interpreting weather is not black and white even for world renowned meteorologists.

Quoting michi (Reply 39):
Personally I do not rule out a weather related factor. But I don't give it much weight, as it is unlikely with the facts known so far.

That is perfectly acceptable position. At this point probability theory in play more than any other subject. Bulk of parts #4 and #5 were wasted countering any one made an uneducated gullible guess about weather being factor.

If ANEs are so confident about their position, publish final theory, lets wait two years for DGCA/BEA final report, and you can brag "we told you so".

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 42):
ADS-B has been a requirement in Indonesian airspace since December 12, 2013. 30 seconds on Google would have saved you looking silly.

I think question is not about ADS-B transmission, it is about who received the final data. Is it an amateur feeding fr24 (or) is it a AirNav managed ground station (or) satellite based ADS-B with proper error correction. There are only four places in the world US, EU, Japan and India trying to implement ground networks as part of their NextGen AirNav.

So it is not a silly question.

[Edited 2015-01-02 10:47:37]
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Kaiarahi
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 6:59 pm

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 43):
There are only four places in the world US, EU, Japan and India trying to implement ground networks as part of their NextGen AirNav.

Wrong. Australia has implemented it, and assisted Indonesia to implement it.

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 43):
If ANEs are so confident about their position, publish final theory

Creating straw men / putting words in people's mouths does nothing to contribute to a reasoned discussion. Please quote one post where an "ANE" has put forward a final position.
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
David L
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 7:00 pm

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 43):
f ANEs are so confident about their position, publish final theory, lets wait two years for DGCA/BEA final report, and you can brag "we told you so".

   We can't be reading the same threads. I haven't seen one pro say they think they know what happened but I fail to see how that should disbar them from correcting misunderstandings. After all, they're the very ones being criticised for "sitting on the fence" on MH370.
 
RetiredWeasel
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 7:04 pm

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 42):
30 seconds on Google would have saved you looking silly.

Thanks for the info... your credibility though took a hit by the last comment. And a source would have been nice, although I did find one after 5 minutes of search..not 30 seconds. This board provides more accurate and applicable info.
 
EMAman
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 7:56 pm

Hi all, I do have a couple of questions. Firstly I am very sceptical about the rate of climb stated, and possibly this is corrupt data, however:

1. Is it possible for the pilot to command such a rate of climb even if he wanted to do, or do the flight protection laws prevent this?

2. What is primary radar coverage in the area like? Is it even a remote possibility that the pilots attempted to avoid collision with some other small/unidentified or private type aircraft which did not have a functioning transponder and therefore evaded SSR?

3. If the plane did soar like this, is a possible scenario broken control surfaces? I am unsure just asking a question.
 
Kaiarahi
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 8:16 pm

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 43):
lets wait two years for DGCA/BEA final report

To correct any misconceptions, the Indonesian DGCA is the investigating authority under article 5.1 of Annex 13 to the Convention on International Civil Aviation. As the State of Design/Manufacture, BEA is entitled to appoint an accredited representative under article 5.18.
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
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DocLightning
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RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7

Fri Jan 02, 2015 8:58 pm

Quoting CF-CPI (Reply 11):
Water in the lungs would indicate drowning.

Or simply prolonged immersion of a corpse. It does not necessarily have to be drowning.

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 5):
inertia. Gaining height by bleeding off speed. H=v²/2 recklessly ignoring drag.
Coincidentally, the plane lost horizontal speed.

I can see how loss of engines would cause an aft CG and a nose-up attitude to occur. HOWEVER, while the aircraft might climb as much as a few hundred feet, thousands of feet would violate laws of physics. And then, the RAT would be deployed, the APU started and the aircraft would probably remain controllable (although now a glider) and would head downwards over a period of several minutes. That would give plenty of time for the flight crew to radio a distress call.

Quoting rwessel (Reply 35):
Normally the horizontal stabilizer will produce downforce, not lift.

And this is important. For the aircraft to successfully de-rotate and sit on its nose gear once it lands, the CG has to be somewhat forward, so the horizontal stabilizer must be producing downward lift. The loss of the tailplane would 1) shift the CG even more forward and 2) remove that nose-up moment that it gives and so the aircraft would immediately dive.
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