Legend757
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What Will F9 Cut Next From DEN?

Fri Jan 02, 2015 10:42 pm

As F9 continues to convert to a ULCC, a model that relies almost exclusively on O&D passengers, DEN will surely continue to see cuts. I compiled a list of all F9's DEN routes with O&D information from a four quarter sum ending Q2 2014. The list only includes cities where the O&D is less than the seating capacity of F9's A319, 138 seats. Not included are routes that will already see removed service or reduced frequency.

Also to be noted, many of the listed destinations have or will see a dramatic frequency cut this year.

My assumption is that if F9 isn't even close to filling the A319 with O&D passengers to/from these cities, the risk of F9 cutting them is high.

And to throw a little speculation in here (what would a.net be without it), if we continue to see F9 reduce in DEN, where we likely see more build up?

Other thoughts?

Org Des Pax
DEN BNA 121.1
DEN BZN 26.0
DEN CZM 17.4
DEN DRO 12.7
DEN DSM 68.8
DEN FSD 43.9
DEN GSO 26.4
DEN LIR 8.0
DEN MBJ 4.6
DEN MSN 58.0
DEN MSY 73.0
DEN PVR 58.6
DEN RSW 47.9
DEN SJD 54.0
DEN SJO 33.2
DEN TPA 91.9
DEN TYS 18.1
DEN ZIH 3.3
 
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mariner
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RE: What Will F9 Cut Next From DEN?

Fri Jan 02, 2015 11:14 pm

Quoting Legend757 (Thread starter):
My assumption is that if F9 isn't even close to filling the A319 with O&D passengers to/from these cities, the risk of F9 cutting them is high.

Why?

Frontier still allows connections at DEN. It is simply cutting the connection heavy regional cities.

mariner
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Legend757
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RE: What Will F9 Cut Next From DEN?

Fri Jan 02, 2015 11:21 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 1):
Why?

Frontier still allows connections at DEN. It is simply cutting the connection heavy regional cities.

Many of the cities listed are obviously connection heavy.
 
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mariner
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RE: What Will F9 Cut Next From DEN?

Fri Jan 02, 2015 11:27 pm

Quoting Legend757 (Reply 2):
Many of the cities listed are obviously connection heavy.

Some connections can be profitable. It depends on the fares they can charge.

But your list is inaccurate - DEN-SJO is being cut and Frontier doesn't fly DEN-MBJ anymore.

mariner

[Edited 2015-01-02 15:33:43]
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29erUSA187
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RE: What Will F9 Cut Next From DEN?

Sat Jan 03, 2015 12:23 am

I know for a fact that we're down to about 2x daily rotations (on A320's though) here in SAN. Its now a rarity for me to see a F9 plane because of the hours they arrive and depart. Its a shame. I hope they give us service to CLE or another focus city/hub
 
Legend757
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RE: What Will F9 Cut Next From DEN?

Sat Jan 03, 2015 12:38 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 3):
But your list is inaccurate - DEN-SJO is being cut and Frontier doesn't fly DEN-MBJ anymore.

Thanks

[Edited 2015-01-02 16:42:11]
 
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SANFan
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RE: What Will F9 Cut Next From DEN?

Sat Jan 03, 2015 12:49 am

I'm a bit confused.

The figures given in the OP are daily O&D? Are those PDEW or TOTAL daily pax (both directions?)

Are flights in those markets daily? I doubt it but I really don't know. If the frequencies are in some cases less than daily, then the daily traffic figures are essentially meaningless. If a market has 50 pax/day and you offer 2 weekly flights, then in theory, you could have a full plane both of those days flown.

The basis of this thread needs some clarification IMO.

bb
 
dc10lover
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RE: What Will F9 Cut Next From DEN?

Sat Jan 03, 2015 1:35 am

F9 Is Leaving GEG January 6.
Why endure the nightmare and congestion of LAX when BUR, LGB, ONT & SNA is so much easier to fly in and out of. Same with OAK & SJC when it comes to SFO.
 
Legend757
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RE: What Will F9 Cut Next From DEN?

Sat Jan 03, 2015 1:52 am

Quoting SANFan (Reply 6):
The figures given in the OP are daily O&D? Are those PDEW or TOTAL daily pax (both directions?)

PDEW, sorry for the confusion

Quoting SANFan (Reply 6):
Are flights in those markets daily?

Four quarter sum ending Q2 2014.

BZN, DSM, FSD, MSN, MSY, TPA are all around 1x daily

CZM, GSO, TYS RTs are likely low because they are operated on seasonal basis

Airline Orig Dest RTs
F9 DEN BNA 1.9
F9 DEN BZN 0.8
F9 DEN CZM 0.1
F9 DEN DRO 0.4
F9 DEN DSM 1.0
F9 DEN FSD 0.9
F9 DEN GSO 0.3
F9 DEN MSN 0.9
F9 DEN MSY 1.0
F9 DEN PVR 0.5
F9 DEN RSW 0.4
F9 DEN SJD 0.5
F9 DEN TPA 0.8
F9 DEN TYS 0.3

Data not available for LIR and ZIH
 
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mariner
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RE: What Will F9 Cut Next From DEN?

Sat Jan 03, 2015 2:11 am

Quoting Legend757 (Reply 8):
BZN, DSM, FSD, MSN, MSY, TPA are all around 1x daily

Whatever MSN has been, it is showing as 4 x weekly this summer.

Quoting Legend757 (Reply 8):
CZM, GSO, TYS RTs are likely low because they are operated on seasonal basis

CZM is also presently 1 x weekly and is operated in conjunction with Apple Vacations, who effectively guarantee the flights through capacity purchase agreements.

I guess Frontier sees something in GSO and TYS that your original figures don't reflect, because both are coming back this summer, 4 x weekly and 3 x weekly respectively.

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rtalk25
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RE: What Will F9 Cut Next From DEN?

Sat Jan 03, 2015 5:54 am

I wondered how it does in DTW. DTW-DEN is less than daily during the Winter and early Spring. F9 is very small in DTW as a result, although daily DEN,TTN and IAD become seasonally available. I have no idea if it'd keep DTW-DEN long term, but I'd assume if it can, it would and maybe it'd offer more point to point ex DTW to balance the station utilization.

If NK is willing to enter the CLE-Florida turf that F9 had, would F9 engage back on NK's turf at DTW?

The DTW-Florida market right now has Delta on the high fare end, and NK on the lower fare end but tight seating, high fees, and limited competition, thus its likely very profitable for NK.

F9's new seats will likely still have more legroom and seating comfort advantage over NK's seats. It'd be interesting if F9 would want to be the middle carrier, sandwiched between DL and NK. Middle carrier not in frequency but class.

WN didn't want to do it (and opted for FL's FNT-Florida instead) but maybe F9 would. In PHL, F9 is going as the lowest one of the three, US, WN and F9 on PHL-Florida routes. In CLE, it might settle as the middle between UA and NK for the Florida service.

[Edited 2015-01-02 21:59:22]

[Edited 2015-01-02 22:00:09]
 
slcdeltarumd11
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RE: What Will F9 Cut Next From DEN?

Sat Jan 03, 2015 10:37 pm

I think everywhere that can't be supported by pure o&d will be cut. They may continue connections to be allowed for a while but long term I still think it will be no connections at DEN.
 
airliner371
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RE: What Will F9 Cut Next From DEN?

Sat Jan 03, 2015 10:43 pm

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 11):
but long term I still think it will be no connections at DEN.

I don't think they will go to an Allegiant style and say there are no connections, but they certainly aren't going to want connections so they will probably do what they need to do to limit connections, which means they will end routes that rely heavily on connections.
 
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mariner
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RE: What Will F9 Cut Next From DEN?

Sat Jan 03, 2015 11:13 pm

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 12):
I don't think they will go to an Allegiant style and say there are no connections, but they certainly aren't going to want connections so they will probably do what they need to do to limit connections, which means they will end routes that rely heavily on connections.

They've already cut a number of routes that rely heavily on connections - that's the point of this restructure - but they offer several routes with connections. just as they do at CLE, CVG, IAD, ORD, PHX and SLC.

Pax can choose non-stop (1 x daily) ORD-PHX, but they are also offered flights at other times ORD-DEN-PHX, and similarly ORD-LAS or ORD-DEN-LAS.

SFO-IAH pax are offered the choice of the non-stop or the one-stops, SFO-PHX-IAH or SFO-DEN-IAH.

The more interesting question - to me - is not what more they might cut at DEN, but what they might, just might, add - connections or non-stop - but we won't know that until the summer schedule is released.

Will PHL-ORD connect to ORD-DEN, for example?

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GentFromAlaska
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RE: What Will F9 Cut Next From DEN?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 1:00 am

You also have to wonder how airport leases fit into the equation. I suspect F9 signed some multi-year leases under the old LCC model and are waiting for those leases to expire before they discontinue service.

Unless the market is absolutely dismal It seems foolish to pull down a city while still having to pay for a hefty lease specifically under the ULCC model.

BNA-TNN will be flown for the last time tomorrow January 5th but BNA is protected by F9 DEN-BNA service.
Man can be taken from Alaska. Alaska can never be taken from the man.
 
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mariner
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RE: What Will F9 Cut Next From DEN?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 2:38 am

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 14):
You also have to wonder how airport leases fit into the equation. I suspect F9 signed some multi-year leases under the old LCC model and are waiting for those leases to expire before they discontinue service.

Gate leases have seldom stopped Frontier from doing what it needs to do. When it dehubbed MKE it had leases on 21 gates extending through 2015.

http://airwaysnews.com/blog/2014/08/...routes-focusses-on-florida-growth/

"The addition of the two Milwaukee routes came as a surprise after Frontier famously closed its Milwaukee hub by 2012, though it continues to maintain gate leases through 2015."

http://www.bizjournals.com/milwaukee...er-with-unused-gates.html?page=all

"Cuts leave Frontier with unused gates at Mitchell

Through long-term leases for gates and ticket counter space, Frontier’s payments to the airport amount to about $96,000 per month, Rowe said. "


mariner
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LAXintl
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RE: What Will F9 Cut Next From DEN?

Thu Jan 08, 2015 3:37 pm

Frontier confirms its not coming back to SBA. Initially the cut was to be seasonal.

Frontier Airlines has its Last Flight From Santa Barbara
http://www.keyt.com/news/frontier-ai...flight-from-santa-barbara/30566278

=
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
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enilria
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RE: What Will F9 Cut Next From DEN?

Thu Jan 08, 2015 4:34 pm

Quoting Legend757 (Thread starter):
DEN BNA 121.1
DEN BZN 26.0
DEN CZM 17.4
DEN DRO 12.7
DEN DSM 68.8
DEN FSD 43.9
DEN GSO 26.4
DEN LIR 8.0
DEN MBJ 4.6
DEN MSN 58.0
DEN MSY 73.0
DEN PVR 58.6
DEN RSW 47.9
DEN SJD 54.0
DEN SJO 33.2
DEN TPA 91.9
DEN TYS 18.1
DEN ZIH 3.3

Of that entire list I would only think PVR, SJD, and MSY are pretty safe for a while. RSW and TPA seem fairly safe at less than daily and seasonal. I think ORD could be bigger than DEN if things keep going like they are going.
 
GentFromAlaska
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RE: What Will F9 Cut Next From DEN?

Thu Jan 08, 2015 4:35 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 15):
When it dehubbed MKE it had leases on 21 gates extending through 2015.

I'm told some of those were canceled or subleased so there is some revenue coming back to F9 I don't know the exact count. Perhaps someone from MKE or in the know at MKE might chime in.

Contractually I'm not sure if F9 would be responsible for those post sale from Republic. I realize some debt is transferable and assumed including those assets assets which are being used including airframe and ground support equipment leases etc. I suppose we could look at a terminal map to see who is using F9 vacated gates.
Man can be taken from Alaska. Alaska can never be taken from the man.
 
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knope2001
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RE: What Will F9 Cut Next From DEN?

Thu Jan 08, 2015 10:04 pm

Frontier does continue to pay at MKE.. I don't believe those were assumed by Republic. There are nine jetway gates on D plus some additional ground-boarding gates plus six more jetway gates on E. They have never used the gates on E, the got them in a swap with Delta who took six gates from Frontier on D in their place. Of the nine jetway gates (plus additional ground boarding gates) Frontier uses D39 and D41....actually most of the time just D39. D51 is currently being used by AeroMexico charters, about 6-10 per week or so which probably brings them revenue. But otherwise they have continued to pay for lots of unused gates and many extra feet of ticket counter space. Not clear to me if the lease expires 12/31 or sooner but it is in final year.
 
SunsetLimited
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RE: What Will F9 Cut Next From DEN?

Thu Jan 08, 2015 10:26 pm

MSY has been a seasonal station for F9 the past couple of years IIRC. No flights from mid-August to November. It's the only airline to operate seasonally from the airport. AC, for example, cuts back frequencies in July/August/September but they don't pull out entirely.
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planespotting
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RE: What Will F9 Cut Next From DEN?

Thu Jan 08, 2015 10:41 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 9):

Quoting Legend757 (Reply 8):
BZN, DSM, FSD, MSN, MSY, TPA are all around 1x daily

Whatever MSN has been, it is showing as 4 x weekly this summer.

DSM is down to 3x/week until May, when it (for now) is scheduled to go back to daily.
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GentFromAlaska
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RE: What Will F9 Cut Next From DEN?

Fri Jan 09, 2015 3:03 pm

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 19):

Sir, thank you for the MKE clarification and update.
Man can be taken from Alaska. Alaska can never be taken from the man.
 
rj777
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RE: What Will F9 Cut Next From DEN?

Fri Jan 09, 2015 3:31 pm

So when the leases at MKE do expire, will AA maybe take over some of them? Or will UA come over to D? Unless AS is going to be operating out of E (which I would put in the unlikely column), they might as well consolidate as much at D as possible. There's still room for 1 or 2 more airlines even after AS arrives in July

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