gilesdavies
Topic Author
Posts: 2330
Joined: Tue Dec 02, 2003 7:51 pm

Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Sun Jan 04, 2015 2:26 pm

What does the future hold for the LHR-RDU link American Airlines has been operating for a number of years?

I am curious to ask, as RDU is close to two major AA/US hubs with that being Philly and Charlotte. With AA keen to increase frequencies from these hubs to London, would it make sense for the LHR-RDU route to be scaled back or withdrawn completely?

Both the above hubs are only about 45 mins flying time from RDU, and surely this market is overlapping these two cities too?! If there is a reason for the route to continue, wouldn't a 757 make more sense to control the market keep ticket prices high and focus other traffic through AA/US hubs?

Initially I thought RDU was hub for AA, but it only serves MIA, ORD, DFW and American Eagle services to JFK, LGA. It also has a fair few routes with US too, so continues to be well served.

Also isn't this a waste of an LHR slot? Wouldn't the AA/US/BA alliance be better at using it on a US route not currently served to London, like Portland, New Orlean, Salt Lake City, etc...
 
AWACSooner
Posts: 2504
Joined: Tue Jan 22, 2008 12:35 am

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Sun Jan 04, 2015 2:29 pm

It's all about the pharmaceutical contracts and companies that are in the Triangle area around RDU. They've been sustaining this route for years because of it...and I doubt it's going to change any.
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 3507
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Sun Jan 04, 2015 2:30 pm

The route is subsidized by pharamceutical companies and is guaranteed to make AA a profit. AA will not be giving that up...
 
User avatar
AVLAirlineFreq
Posts: 1359
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2008 1:31 am

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Sun Jan 04, 2015 2:42 pm

Quoting gilesdavies (Thread starter):
Also isn't this a waste of an LHR slot? Wouldn't the AA/US/BA alliance be better at using it on a US route not currently served to London, like Portland, New Orlean, Salt Lake City, etc...

They could have done that years ago.
 
S75752
Posts: 1469
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2014 6:38 pm

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Sun Jan 04, 2015 3:00 pm

Quoting gilesdavies (Thread starter):
wouldn't a 757 make more sense to control the market keep ticket prices high and focus other traffic through AA/US hubs?

Approaching the 757's max real-world range, you'd probably get frequent refueling on that.

Quoting gilesdavies (Thread starter):

Also isn't this a waste of an LHR slot? Wouldn't the AA/US/BA alliance be better at using it on a US route not currently served to London, like Portland, New Orlean, Salt Lake City, etc...

I don't get what you're trying to say, since if they were to use it on one of those, RDU itself would become a route no longer served to London. Now, I don't know how RDU compares in size to those (but SLC and PDX seem more like a DL/VS venture on a semi-relevant side note, though I get what you mean with the examples).
 
User avatar
adamh8297
Posts: 3199
Joined: Sat Dec 15, 2012 6:28 pm

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Sun Jan 04, 2015 3:08 pm

Quoting gilesdavies (Thread starter):
I am curious to ask, as RDU is close to two major AA/US hubs with that being Philly and Charlotte.

The whole "Airport X is close to Hub A and/or B" gets old after a while even though it some cases there is leakage or potential leakage. Its all about the market or potential from the airport itself.

BA didn't care that AUS is close to IAH
EK, CX, and TK didn't care that BOS is close to JFK
DL didn't care that PHL was close to JFK to add an LHR flight
CM didn't care that TPA was close to MCO and FLL was close to MIA.
B6 didn't care that SWF was close to JFK for Florida flights
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN

2019: CX BOS-HKG, WE HKG-HKT, CA HKT-PEK-EWR, B6 EWR-BOS
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 5984
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Sun Jan 04, 2015 4:44 pm

No.

The route is subsidized in the form of revenue guarentee. Its free money for AA just to fly it.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
User avatar
enilria
Posts: 9844
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Sun Jan 04, 2015 4:57 pm

Quoting gilesdavies (Thread starter):
What does the future hold for the LHR-RDU link American Airlines has been operating for a number of years?

So, here's my view. AA now owns North Carolina. I think the only reason for them to keep flying RDU-LHR is fear that DL will start RDU-CDG if they leave. That is probably a serious risk, so they will be forced to continue operating it, but if that fear did not exist they would drop it in a second and connect the traffic over CLT/PHL.
 
ripcordd
Posts: 1079
Joined: Sat Apr 01, 2000 1:12 pm

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Sun Jan 04, 2015 5:20 pm

This has nothing to do with DL doing RDU-CDG RDU not being a hub the pharm companies pay AA to fly the route with a profit guarantee which is the ONLY reason why they fly it. Pharm pulls out its money the route would go away end of story here nothing to see
 
vv701
Posts: 5895
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 10:54 am

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Sun Jan 04, 2015 5:34 pm

Next to BWI (113,591 passengers in 2013) RDU (121,745 passengers) was the smallest of the 22 USA destinations served direct from LHR that year. However RDU's ranking of 21 was immediately below CLT. It was ranked 20th in 2013 with 133,913 passengers.

Data Source: CAA web site.
 
User avatar
enilria
Posts: 9844
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Sun Jan 04, 2015 5:36 pm

Quoting ripcordd (Reply 8):
AA to fly the route with a profit guarantee which is the ONLY reason why they fly it.

Airlines have pulled plenty of profitable routes in the past because they think they can recapture the traffic over other hub routes. The only reason to fly this route is fear somebody else will enter and DL probably would.
 
JDAirCEO
Posts: 232
Joined: Mon Jan 09, 2006 2:58 pm

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Sun Jan 04, 2015 8:21 pm

The route does have a revenue guarantee in place but its only tapped if the flight fails to generate a profit. The flight has for years generated a profit due to the amount of paid J seats and cargo. J rarely goes out with many open seats and its typically pretty hard to score an upgrade. As for cargo, AA doesn't maintain a cargo operation at RDU just for flights to the hubs. Y is around 60% load factor and near 90% during the summer and its mostly O&D. Not that connections don't exist but typically it's a low number on Y AAdvantage tickets.
An MD-80 is great... in first class
 
User avatar
FlyPIJets
Posts: 849
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2003 3:32 am

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Sun Jan 04, 2015 11:09 pm

What could do the route in is not the AA/US merger as much as the layoffs from GlaxoSmithKline (The major Pharma that traditionally supported the route) I believe the Glaxo just laid off 900 workers (not all in RTP) and is shifting focus away from R&D. (it easier to purchase small pharma cos that are R&D driven than pursue your own R&D) R&D workers are the high $$ workers that probably needed to travel back for forth to London.
Rex Kramer: Get that finger out of your ear! You don't know where that finger's been!
 
CPDC10-30
Posts: 4688
Joined: Wed Feb 02, 2000 4:30 pm

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 12:06 am

Quoting FlyPIJets (Reply 12):
What could do the route in is not the AA/US merger as much as the layoffs from GlaxoSmithKline (The major Pharma that traditionally supported the route)

Sure, the route is perfect for GSK because it connects their WW headquarters (beside the M4 on the way in to London) and their RTP operation. But they aren't the only game in town. Cisco, Lenovo, IBM, and countless others also have large operations both in London/M4 Corridor and in RTP. I work for one of those and although AA is usually not allowed on transatlantic corporate bookings (UA and VS are preferred), we are allowed to use the AA RDU flight and it is a big time saver.
 
User avatar
SLCUT2777
Posts: 3464
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2006 12:17 am

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 12:21 am

Quoting enilria (Reply 10):
The only reason to fly this route is fear somebody else will enter and DL probably would.

I highly doubt DL would try RDU-LHR if AA pulled the plug. They would probably try PDX, SLC or if they had to stay in that region FLL.
DELTA Air Lines; The Only Way To Fly from Salt Lake City; Let the Western Heritage always be with Delta!
 
HPRamper
Posts: 4987
Joined: Sat May 14, 2005 4:22 am

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 12:32 am

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 14):
I highly doubt DL would try RDU-LHR if AA pulled the plug. They would probably try PDX, SLC or if they had to stay in that region FLL.

The argument, though, hasn't been DL starting LHR service, but CDG. The question to me is if corporate contracts especially with GSK are supporting this route with travel to LHR, why would DL voluntarily walk away from that money on the table to do CDG instead?

PDX wouldn't happen - it would compete directly with DL's PDX-AMS.
 
RDUDDJI
Posts: 2163
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 2004 4:42 am

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 1:26 am

Ah, another thread about RDU-LHR. Here's my PSA every time the thread comes up:

A.net Misconceptions:
*GSK buys the whole F/C class
*GSK pays for the whole cargo hold (if people really knew how little cargo makes, they'd laugh at that one)
*The flight gets subsidies.

Facts:
*RDU-LHR is the single largest market from anywhere in NC to anywhere in Europe.
*Yes, people could drive 3-4 hours to CLT to catch a flight to LHR from there. They could also drive 3-4 hours to D.C. and catch a flight from there. But business pax don't do that, and neither do other pax when it's slower than simply catching a connecting flight.
*RDULHR used to have revenue guarantees from the RTPR (which is a consortium of mostly pharma companies in RTP, GSK, Pfizer, etc.)
*Those guarantees have not been used since the early 2000s
*From my contacts at RDUAA, it's not clear if the guarantees even exist anymore.
*The 2013 LF% on the flight was 80% which is right in line with the average U.S.-LHR LF of 81% (and many markets hub feed on both ends)

Quoting USFlyer MSP (Reply 2):
The route is subsidized by pharamceutical companies and is guaranteed to make AA a profit. AA will not be giving that up...

False

Quoting ripcordd (Reply 8):
This has nothing to do with DL doing RDU-CDG RDU not being a hub the pharm companies pay AA to fly the route with a profit guarantee which is the ONLY reason why they fly it. Pharm pulls out its money the route would go away end of story here nothing to see

Then that would have happened a long time ago, since the guarantees haven't been used since the early 2000s.

Quoting gilesdavies (Thread starter):
Also isn't this a waste of an LHR slot? Wouldn't the AA/US/BA alliance be better at using it on a US route not currently served to London, like Portland, New Orlean, Salt Lake City, etc...

The RDU-LHR market is twice the size of of SLC-LHR and MSY-LHR. RDU-LHR is also 80% larger than PDX-LHR.
Sometimes we don't realize the good times when we're in them
 
D L X
Posts: 12637
Joined: Thu May 27, 1999 3:30 am

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 1:39 am

Quoting gilesdavies (Thread starter):
I am curious to ask, as RDU is close to two major AA/US hubs with that being Philly and Charlotte. With AA keen to increase frequencies from these hubs to London, would it make sense for the LHR-RDU route to be scaled back or withdrawn completely?

Just to add a little bit of comparison here, the driving time from RDU to CLT is a shade under 3 hours. That compares to the driving time from London Heathrow to Manchester, which is about 3.5 hours.

I don't think anyone would suggest not serving both London and Manchester because they're close to each other. Yes, Raleigh and Charlotte are in the same state (as are Los Angeles and San Francisco) but they are not terribly close to each other.

Also, America is huge.

In short, there's room for both flights.
 
RDUDDJI
Posts: 2163
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 2004 4:42 am

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 2:53 am

Quoting VV701 (Reply 9):
Next to BWI (113,591 passengers in 2013) RDU (121,745 passengers) was the smallest of the 22 USA destinations served direct from LHR that year. However RDU's ranking of 21 was immediately below CLT. It was ranked 20th in 2013 with 133,913 passengers.

Data Source: CAA web site.

Numbers from Brookings are slightly different, with RDU at 64K each way, CLT at 60K, and BWI at 55K. Judging by the trends, it looks like these numbers included at least some connections.
Sometimes we don't realize the good times when we're in them
 
blueheronNC
Posts: 103
Joined: Sat Jun 16, 2007 12:19 am

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 2:58 am

I think it's safe. AA recently installed an AUS-LHR route to serve the local technology needs there, with DFW just a short hop by plane.
 
KD5MDK
Posts: 818
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2013 4:05 am

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 5:23 am

? AA definitely is not flying AUS-LHR.
 
EricAY05
Posts: 229
Joined: Sat Sep 25, 2010 1:25 pm

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 11:48 am

Quoting D L X (Reply 17):

Americans are much more used to drive long distances. Very few people would drive from Germany to Portugal, but many people drive from the NE coast to Florida every year. Gas is much cheaper than in Europe and the US road system is superb, no matter how much bashing it gets.

Also, as you said, America is huge and driving takes a lot of time. If you're going to drive to RDU, which can from some parts of the metropolitan area take one hour in traffic and then park the car there, then why not drive 4h to CLT, park the car there and save some money on flights?

I feel stupid commenting on something related to the USA to an American user, but I think I might have a point.
 
jfk777
Posts: 7199
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 12:45 pm

Even though the route is now flown by a 767-300ER, it was flown by an AA 777-200 for many years after the RDU hub closed.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14216
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 1:57 pm

Quoting EricAY05 (Reply 21):
Also, as you said, America is huge and driving takes a lot of time. If you're going to drive to RDU, which can from some parts of the metropolitan area take one hour in traffic and then park the car there, then why not drive 4h to CLT, park the car there and save some money on flights?

I'm not sure that driving to CLT is any cheaper or otherwise preferable to connecting in IAD, EWR or JFK, any of which would, of course, result in AA losing the hypothetical passenger.

[Edited 2015-01-05 06:19:29]
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
S75752
Posts: 1469
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2014 6:38 pm

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 2:14 pm

Quoting EricAY05 (Reply 21):
Also, as you said, America is huge and driving takes a lot of time. If you're going to drive to RDU, which can from some parts of the metropolitan area take one hour in traffic and then park the car there, then why not drive 4h to CLT, park the car there and save some money on flights?

You're not going to save much money on flights.
1, "Time is money".
2, how much money saved? Depending on the car that could be a tank of gas right there.
3, that is driving time equivalent to half of the time that RDU-LHR is anyways.
4, traffic is an ever present threat to any plans, I'd assume especially on a busy link between CLT and RDU.
5, arriving in after that long sleepless flight that may have been diverted/delayed, exhausted, perhaps too fatigued to drive much = 1 night hotel room.
6, Convenience does typically sell.
 
blueheronNC
Posts: 103
Joined: Sat Jun 16, 2007 12:19 am

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 3:22 pm



Quoting KD5MDK (Reply 20):
? AA definitely is not flying AUS-LHR.

Sorry, my mistake, but BA is, and they're a OneWorld partner.

[Edited 2015-01-05 07:22:37]
 
D L X
Posts: 12637
Joined: Thu May 27, 1999 3:30 am

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 3:48 pm

Quoting EricAY05 (Reply 21):
Americans are much more used to drive long distances.

That may be true, but we are also wholly unwilling to drive 3 hours past one airport to get to another airport. The expenses and time involved work greatly against it.

I can't imagine driving 3 hours to get home after my 8 hour flight. I think S75752's post is spot on.
 
vv701
Posts: 5895
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 10:54 am

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 5:43 pm

Quoting blueheronNC (Reply 25):
Sorry, my mistake, but BA is, and they're a OneWorld partner.

More than that. AA6237 operates LHR-AUS. But it is a code share flight
 
richierich
Posts: 3617
Joined: Sat Nov 04, 2000 5:49 am

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 6:13 pm

Quoting gilesdavies (Thread starter):
I am curious to ask, as RDU is close to two major AA/US hubs with that being Philly and Charlotte.
Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 5):
BA didn't care that AUS is close to IAH
Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 5):
B6 didn't care that SWF was close to JFK for Florida flights

Just some geographical corrections here:

RDU is relatively close to CLT, but it is still 130 miles. That's further than the distance between JFK and PHL.
RDU is not close to PHL at all - some 338 miles according to WebFlyer. Certainly not a reasonably driveable distance, so I assume you meant that AA could just add a short flight between RDU and these hubs to cover the same demand, except that I don't think it would work that way. Obviously RDU-JFK seems to be holding its own otherwise it would have been dropped, but it is currently on the smallest equipment AA can probably use, a B763. A close family member of mine recently took this flight and noted there were "lots of open seats" in the westbound direction, but that probably doesnt mean much.

I actually thought AUS was closer to DFW than IAH but you are correct, IAH is closer. Still, it is 140 miles, hardly just down the road, even by Texas standards.

SWF is close to JFK? Odd example to pick considering B6 has actually reduced SWF over the years - and LGA/EWR/HPN are all closer airports to JFK than SWF is. Not to mention B6 has recently added PVD and ORH to augment their BOS services, something that would have been more relevant to your point.
None shall pass!!!!
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 9943
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 9:38 pm

Quoting gilesdavies (Thread starter):

With the current plunge in Oil Prices, I think you will see CLT and PHL increase their frequencies while RDU maintains it's flight. If Oil remains low into the Summer, I expect a few price breaks to be tossed to the customers, which will increase ridership on all routes. Especially out of RDU.

CLT and PHL are not optimal for AA to pull out of RDU. As others have mentioned DL would be in on a RDU-CDG flight as fast as possible, and the connections to alternatives such as JFK/BOS/IAD/ATL all become threats to AA's ability to transfer those riders to their CLT and PHL flights.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
rtalk25
Posts: 631
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2014 4:14 am

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 10:07 pm

Leisure pax sometimes drive 3-4 hours to another large airport for a lower fare. I know some that have driven from RDU area to CLT area for low fares to Mexico.

I doubt business pax travel more than about 1.5 hrs by ground, when a major airport with flight options is closer, though, and the RDU-LHR flight survives on the yields from business pax travel.

I don't think RDU-LHR is in trouble. If AA didn't fly it, BA would. If AA and BA didn't, as others mentioned, DL would gladly want to offer a Trans-Atlantic flight as that could sway business pax into DL loyalty in the RDU region, especially as DL has a focus city in RDU.
 
D L X
Posts: 12637
Joined: Thu May 27, 1999 3:30 am

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 10:21 pm

Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 30):
Leisure pax sometimes drive 3-4 hours to another large airport for a lower fare.

How much of a fare difference would you expect between RDU and CLT? If anything, people in CLT might be wooed to drive away from the fortress hub to RDU to catch a flight, but even then, I think it is greatly exaggerated how many of the 200 odd flyers on that flight drove from the other city.

Right now, fares on AA and US from RDU-LHR in November 2015 (sufficiently far out to have plenty of availability) are the same as CLT-LHR nonstop, at about $1240 r/t.
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 4458
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Tue Jan 06, 2015 1:33 am

I think this route is safe unless something happens to the pharmaceutical industry. No reason to cancel the route it has revenue guarantees
 
KD5MDK
Posts: 818
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2013 4:05 am

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Tue Jan 06, 2015 2:44 am

Quoting EricAY05 (Reply 21):
I feel stupid commenting on something related to the USA to an American user, but I think I might have a point.

Not to dog pile, but as an American from Texas I know a bit about people being willing to drive and this just isn't what happens. People will drive a ways to save a bunch on a family trip where the savings per ticket is multiplied by the number of family members maybe, but in general you want to choose the closest reasonable airport. RDU is a big city. It has plenty of existing flights. If your only choice was a tiny airport with service to only one place, maybe. But there's options on Delta, on AA, on United... Plenty of connecting choices that will keep fares reasonable compared to a non-stop CLT-LHR.

Also, for business people are looking for maximum convenience. I'm a cheap employee on the scale of people who travel, but it would effectively cost my company ~$400 minimum to have me drive to CLT from RDU for a cheaper flight. Not to mention I'll be less happy, the work I do is worth more than what I cost to pay, etc. So I would expect to pay up to $400 more for a flight from RDU than I'd have to pay for a flight from CLT if I worked at RDU. Now, competitive pressures and the ability to connect in IAD, EWR, ATL, JFK mean that I wouldn't have to pay that much more, but the prices would allow it if necessary.
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 12836
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Tue Jan 06, 2015 3:51 am

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 14):

I highly doubt DL would try RDU-LHR if AA pulled the plug. They would probably try PDX, SLC or if they had to stay in that region FLL.

And this is based on ______, besides your wishful thinking of course?

According to both the Brookings report and the more recent 2013 release, neither PDX nor SLC are in the top two for O&D nor average fare to LON, among unserved US airports. That'd be STL and MSY.

And FLL has LON service currently, which can barely seem to sustain itself even with generous low prices, and is constantly altered and reduced. Aren't they down to 1x weekly now?

Shy of massive subsidy (which can throw the equation any kind of way), why would DL bother wasting an LHR slot on the likes of any of these, versus adding another from JFK/ATL/LAX, where it's proven it can make money with them?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
KD5MDK
Posts: 818
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2013 4:05 am

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Tue Jan 06, 2015 4:58 am

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 34):
According to both the Brookings report and the more recent 2013 release, neither PDX nor SLC are in the top two for O&D nor average fare to LON, among unserved US airports. That'd be STL and MSY.

PDX and SLC have a lot of existing Delta customers?
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 12836
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Tue Jan 06, 2015 9:21 am

Quoting KD5MDK (Reply 35):
PDX and SLC have a lot of existing Delta customers?

........that are already traveling on its huh2hub cnnx via AMS (and CDG for SLC).

Why risk diluting that, for (again) two markets that don't even have that much nor significantly-yielding demand for LON-- relative to the opportunity cost of more powerful routes, especially for such a limited/expensive commodity?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
rtalk25
Posts: 631
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2014 4:14 am

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Tue Jan 06, 2015 3:34 pm

Quoting D L X (Reply 31):
How much of a fare difference would you expect between RDU and CLT? If anything, people in CLT might be wooed to drive away from the fortress hub to RDU to catch a flight, but even then, I think it is greatly exaggerated how many of the 200 odd flyers on that flight drove from the other city.

Sometimes it's also the time of the flight or the nonstop routing or such. I've seen sometimes an oddball 6-7am flight priced much lower than all the daytime alternatives. Then it can be worthwhile staying in an airport hotel the night before and taking advantage of the park, free shuttle and fly option.

But this likely affects leisure travel and as I mentioned not in this case viability of RDU-LHR. It's certainly likely also that CLT pax are heading to RDU at times, and maybe on this RDU-LHR flight if it works out better.

Atleast in the NE, BOS and JFK are the only airports with morning-daytime bound LHR options from BA. I wouldn't be surprised if some come from far, to catch these flights.
 
Freshside3
Posts: 1590
Joined: Fri Nov 30, 2012 2:11 am

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Tue Jan 06, 2015 3:42 pm

Essentially a "mirror image" of the UA SEA-NRT situation......former hub that has been de-hubbed, with a sole lucrative international flight.......and with another hub not so far away.........

But I personally think AA will have the sense enough to keep it, somehow. The only difference being that other carriers have Asia out of SEA, while there is no other carrier doing Europe out of RDU.

[Edited 2015-01-06 07:45:25]
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 12836
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Wed Jan 07, 2015 1:08 am

Quoting Freshside3 (Reply 38):
Essentially a "mirror image" of the UA SEA-NRT situation......former hub that has been de-hubbed, with a sole lucrative international flight

Not really seeing the comparison.

UA maintained its SEA-NRT route based on 1) not wanting to fly DEN-NRT with a 77E and 2) having a hub on the other end at NRT. When DEN got its own TYO nonstop, and the NRT hub became de-emphasized, there was no more need for such a flight.

On the other hand, RDU-LON stands on its own merit, which it's done well past RDU's existence as of hub of any significance to AA. The common A.net lore is that the flight is "paid for" and thus has no real reason to make money as a standalone-- but based on what I've heard, from people at AA who'd know, the flight doesn't really even use its revenue guarantees as of late (though they're still available). That, and they weren't all that lucrative in the past decade, as they didn't adjust linearly for the horrid spike in fuel; thus the flight had to shoulder the loads to yield on its own, or face alternative consideration.

The fact that LHR offers cnnx does help, but the objective of that flight was to cater to the demand from Glaxo et al, to LON itself. And keep in mind that for much of its history, the flight was to LGW, with far more limited OneWorld cnnx of any business value.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
KD5MDK
Posts: 818
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2013 4:05 am

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Wed Jan 07, 2015 7:47 am

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 36):
........that are already traveling on its huh2hub cnnx via AMS (and CDG for SLC).

PDX-AMS-LHR (or LCY) is probably less attractive to local customers than PDX-LHR.
XXX-SLC-LHR is definitely more attractive than XXX-SLC-CDG-LHR or XXX-SLC-AMS-LHR.
If SLC is going to be the Western US hub for Delta, the most visited overseas city from the US is a pretty strong destination.

I'm not saying the routes are guaranteed. I'm saying they make a lot more sense to me for DL than STL which has no established Delta market or a MSY that almost overflies DTW or ATL.
 
User avatar
RyanairGuru
Posts: 8144
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:59 am

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Wed Jan 07, 2015 9:13 am

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 39):
RDU-LON stands on its own merit, which it's done well past RDU's existence as of hub of any significance to AA

Exactly, and even if RDU isn't a hub LHR most definitely is if we consider the AJB in its entirety.



Seriously guys, if we want to question the viability of any route BWI makes much more sense than RDU. You can practically walk to both PHL and IAD, and yet BA have flown to all three airports for decades.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 12836
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Wed Jan 07, 2015 5:36 pm

Quoting KD5MDK (Reply 40):
PDX-AMS-LHR (or LCY) is probably less attractive to local customers than PDX-LHR.

Too bad the local customers are too insignificant in number/yield for that to be of much concern, in terms of a commodity as valuable as LHR. That, and I guarantee you that there's a significant percentage of PDX-AMS customers backtracking to LON every day. That's shorter than the hop between PDX and YVR, which tons of cnnx traffic also has no problem with doing.

Quoting KD5MDK (Reply 40):
I'm saying they make a lot more sense to me for DL than STL which has no established Delta market or a MSY that almost overflies DTW or ATL.

No one's talking about specifically DL flying those routes... just that it'd make a lot more sense than PDX (and arguably more sense than SLC) for any new LHR destinations to be those two, as they have higher traffic, higher yield, shorter distance, and no nonstop European competition.

[Edited 2015-01-07 09:41:16]

[Edited 2015-01-07 09:42:08]
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 12836
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Wed Jan 07, 2015 5:38 pm

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 41):
if we want to question the viability of any route BWI makes much more sense than RDU.

BWI also has revenue guarantees... and IINM, it's the only USA one in BA's system where the city/state government are the ones doing it.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
User avatar
DolphinAir747
Posts: 1898
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2012 10:07 pm

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Wed Jan 07, 2015 10:44 pm

Would BA be allowed to operate the route on its own metal instead of AA under the pharma contracts, for example if AA is in need if a spare frame or the 788 offers cost savings?
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 12836
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Thu Jan 08, 2015 4:56 am

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 44):
Would BA be allowed to operate the route on its own metal instead of AA under the pharma contracts

Only those who've seen the actual agreement and its terms, could say for sure.

If I had to guess, I'd say no, as the agreement is with AA. AA and BA are not the same company, and BA would likely not be bound by specifications for performance (or more importantly, penalties for the lack thereof) imposed upon AA.

Granted, the drafters could've thought of all of this ahead of time, and written the agreement accordingly-- but they could more easily just tell AA, op it or lose it. If AA needs a spare frame, this probably wouldn't be the route to pull it from, unless they want to lose it.  
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
SurfandSnow
Posts: 1482
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2009 7:09 am

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Thu Jan 08, 2015 6:22 am

The merger has made AA a *much* more attractive option for RDU FFers. PMAA could theoretically get you just about anywhere via DFW/LHR/MIA/NYC/ORD, but significant detours were required to reach most places east of the Mississippi (i.e. BDL, MEM, PIT, RSW). Now they offer vastly superior access to those markets via CLT/DCA/PHL. I would think RDU-LHR is probably doing better than ever, thanks to increased loyalty to AA in the RDU market.
Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
 
kotoka
Posts: 86
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 3:57 pm

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Mon Jan 12, 2015 6:49 pm

According to GDS and OAG Schedules Analyser, it appears the 777-200ER will be operating on the RDU-LHR route from 01/01/16.
 
tommy767
Posts: 4658
Joined: Sat Aug 09, 2003 12:18 pm

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Mon Jan 12, 2015 7:52 pm

I don't think there is any reason why it wouldn't be safe with the pharma companies flying the route for over 20 years.

I feel like CLT-LHR vs. RDU-LHR have two different missions from an O&D perspective. CLT is for finance, RDU for pharma.
"KEEP CLIMBING" -- DELTA
 
HPRamper
Posts: 4987
Joined: Sat May 14, 2005 4:22 am

RE: Is LHR-RDU At Risk With The AA/US Merger?

Mon Jan 12, 2015 8:36 pm

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 48):
I feel like CLT-LHR vs. RDU-LHR have two different missions from an O&D perspective. CLT is for finance, RDU for pharma.

If CLT has any O&D focus, finance would be it, but overall its financial industry is quite domestic-centric and doesn't generate much international travel. I think CLT-LHR is being flown because of CLT's hub status and really that's about it.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos