Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
User avatar
EK413
Topic Author
Posts: 5630
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2003 3:11 pm

Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Mon Jan 05, 2015 6:40 am

Hi All,

As the previous thread has received beyond +200 responses Part 8 has been created to continue the conversation.

The previous thread can be found here Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 7 (by EK413 Jan 2 2015 in Civil Aviation)

EK413
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
 
LTC8K6
Posts: 1590
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2009 8:36 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Mon Jan 05, 2015 6:46 am

If we don't hear the recorder beacons in the area, do we start to wonder where the tail section is?

Has any of the debris on the bottom been confirmed to be A320 parts, as opposed to WW2 debris?
 
User avatar
777Jet
Posts: 6987
Joined: Sat Mar 08, 2014 7:29 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Mon Jan 05, 2015 6:47 am

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 1):
If we don't hear the recorder beacons in the area, do we start to wonder where the tail section is?

I understand the forces that the black boxes are designed / built to withstand, but if no signal from the boxes is eventually picked up within a radius of X from where some wreckage has been found or is thought to be, I wonder what the chances are that the boxes or the pinger might have been damaged?
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
UALWN
Posts: 2186
Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2009 3:27 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Mon Jan 05, 2015 10:07 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 2):

It could also mean that the tail (or part of it) detached in flight and, hence, it's lying far away from the main debris field. Could excessive rudder input to try to control the plane after an ice-related upset lead to tail damage?
AT7/111/146/Avro/CRJ/CR9/EMB/ERJ/E75/F50/100/L15/DC9/D10/M8X/717/727/737/747/757/767/777/787/AB6/310/32X/330/340/350/380
 
User avatar
Finn350
Posts: 1601
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:57 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Mon Jan 05, 2015 10:15 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 2):
I understand the forces that the black boxes are designed / built to withstand, but if no signal from the boxes is eventually picked up within a radius of X from where some wreckage has been found or is thought to be, I wonder what the chances are that the boxes or the pinger might have been damaged?

Mandala499 hinted in an earlier post that the Underwater Locatot Beacon might have separated from the actual recorder, but it was unclear whether that was a fact or just speculation.

And thanks to Rivet42, trnswrld, flightsimer for clarifying my post regarding wreckage scattering and possible mid-air break-up in 4 km vs. 50 m water depth.
 
LTC8K6
Posts: 1590
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2009 8:36 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Mon Jan 05, 2015 11:50 am

 
michi
Posts: 266
Joined: Thu Jul 15, 2004 9:18 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Mon Jan 05, 2015 12:48 pm

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 232):
Stalling transport aircraft

Thank you. Very interesting!

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 232):
Stalls also typically require special instrumentation to monitor horizontal tail loads which can become elevated approaching limit loads during stalls and recovery from stalls.

I read it that way, that the horizontal tail loads have to be monitored during stall testing in order not to exceed structural limits.
In case a structural limit is exceeded during stall testing, some structural rework has to be done. Otherwise the airplane would not be certifiable.

I do understand, that during a stall and the subsequent recovery the loads at the tail section will be higher than anywhere else on the frame and might reach limits sooner.

Do you concur? Or not?

Best regards,

Michi



Edit: I quoted the link "Stalling transport aircraft" from 7BOEING7 including the link. That did not work, so I entered the name of the pdf file.

[Edited 2015-01-05 04:50:37]

[Edited 2015-01-05 05:05:38]
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 15774
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Mon Jan 05, 2015 12:57 pm

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 1):

The data recorders are not in the tail, they are located in the aft fuselage forward of the horizontal stabiliser.
“Don't be a show-off. Never be too proud to turn back. There are old pilots and bold pilots, but no old, bold pilots.” E. Hamilton Lee, 1949
 
MD11Engineer
Posts: 13899
Joined: Sun Oct 26, 2003 5:25 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Mon Jan 05, 2015 1:08 pm

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 1):
If we don't hear the recorder beacons in the area, do we start to wonder where the tail section is?

Has any of the debris on the bottom been confirmed to be A320 parts, as opposed to WW2 debris?

The seaq there is relatively shallow and there has been bad weather with storms going on for the last two weeks or so, with waves reported of 4 meters ( 13 ft).
This will still create strong currents at the bottom, which causes sand and mud to be flushed up. According to the BBC, divers have reported to have zero visibility in the waters, which are normally crystal clear.

Similarly the waves cause a lot of background noise, which will drown out the pingers.

Finally the waves make it difficult for the ships to keep station and for the divers to get in and out of the water.

Jan
Je Suis Charlie et je suis Ahmet aussi
 
User avatar
Thunderboltdrgn
Posts: 2197
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2012 5:39 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Mon Jan 05, 2015 2:02 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 7):
The data recorders are not in the tail, they are located in the
aft fuselage forward of the horizontal stabiliser.

I am certain that you are correct but regular people might have a wider definition of the term "tail section".
So in this case, tail section might (fully or partially) include the section you refer to as
"aft fuselage". So we don't know for certain what part they actually have found and if it is
the "tail section", we don't know if it is just the section you refer to as the tail or if it also
includes parts the aft fudelage.

[Edited 2015-01-05 06:06:59]
Like a thunderbolt of lightning the Dragon roars across the sky. Il Drago Ruggente
 
asetiadi
Posts: 233
Joined: Wed May 15, 2013 5:05 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Mon Jan 05, 2015 2:54 pm

Latest News:

1. AP I Juanda Airport Claims Never Receive Mail AirAsia Schedule Changes.

In a letter a copy to the Director of Operations of AP I, state-owned operator Juanda Airport received a copy one international flight PT Air Wagon International (Indonesia)">QZ 8501 AirAsia Airbus 320 taking the day of surgery Monday, During, Thursday and Saturday. But, when AirAsia flight route change, be Monday, Wednesday , Friday, and Sunday AP I do not accept the existence of these changes. That had been held by AP I Juanda, only the schedule before the change. "Director of Operations only copy we received a letter from the Directorate General of Air Transportation," said Corporate Secretary of AP I Farid Indra Nugraha in explanation to members of the media in Tanah Abang, Monday (01/05/2015).

2. SOEs have suspended the two senior operations managers and supervisors the operational tasks apron movement control (AMC), Juanda Airport in Surabaya.

"We suspended 2 people, a manager and supervisor of airport operations supervisor operational tasks of the AMC at Juanda Airport . We did this based on the orders of the minister (Jonan) while in the process of investigation, "said Corporate Secretary of AP I Farid Indra Nugraha in explanation to members of the media in Tanah Abang, Central Jakarta, Monday (05/01/2015). Both officers were transferred to the division or other units that are not related to operating activities pending the completion of the investigation.

3. PT Indonesia AirAsia offers Rp 300 million / US$ 24.000 to the families of victims of PT Air Wagon International (Indonesia)">QZ 8501 AirAsia plane that crashed in the waters near the Strait Karimata Java Sea as part of the early compensation.

Many of the families refused the offer.

4. Minister of State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) Rini Soemarno gave a morning call the Board of Directors of PT Angkasa Pura I (Persero) and the Board of Directors of PT Garuda Indonesia Tbk (GIAA) today because Rini wanted to listen to the problems of Indonesia AirAsia PT Air Wagon International (Indonesia)">QZ 8501 flying outside permit issued by the Directorate General of Air Transportation.

My thoughts:
We know this license issue because of the tragedy and I wonder how many airlines out there in Indonesia right now that have these similar violation.
 
User avatar
7BOEING7
Posts: 3039
Joined: Fri Oct 12, 2012 5:28 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Mon Jan 05, 2015 3:30 pm

Quoting michi (Reply 6):
I do understand, that during a stall and the subsequent recovery the loads at the tail section will be higher than anywhere else on the frame and might reach limits sooner.

Do you concur? Or not?

Yes
 
michi
Posts: 266
Joined: Thu Jul 15, 2004 9:18 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Mon Jan 05, 2015 3:36 pm

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 11):
Yes

Do you concur with my entire post or only with the part that you quoted?

Thanks
 
LTC8K6
Posts: 1590
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2009 8:36 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Mon Jan 05, 2015 3:54 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 7):

The data recorders are not in the tail, they are located in the aft fuselage forward of the horizontal stabiliser.

Yes, relatively speaking. The rear end of the plane.  
 
spacecadet
Posts: 3582
Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2001 3:36 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Mon Jan 05, 2015 6:55 pm

Quoting thunderboltdrgn (Reply 9):
I am certain that you are correct but regular people might have a wider definition of the term "tail section".

But the quote from the navy in the linked story does not actually say "tail section", it says "tail". "Tail section" can mean different things, but the simpler "tail" at least strongly implies it's just the vertical fin that they've found.

It's sounding to me like this was a pretty high energy crash into the water. They're finding a lot of bodies outside the aircraft, and what sounds like a lot of scattered pieces of wreckage. It's not unusual for the tail fin to break off the fuselage in a high energy accident. But the recorders could still be in a completely different location - it's not clear from the linked article whether the tail is floating or not, and whether it therefore would have been carried by currents to where it is now.
I'm tired of being a wanna-be league bowler. I wanna be a league bowler!
 
LTC8K6
Posts: 1590
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2009 8:36 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Mon Jan 05, 2015 7:16 pm

A lot is not clear, including whether any of the bottom debris is from an A320.
 
User avatar
Gonzalo
Posts: 1862
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2005 2:43 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Mon Jan 05, 2015 7:20 pm

I'v been out of the Fórums for a long time since my new obligations at work don't leave me the time I usually had before.
This last months have been really sad, first both MH flights, now this one, and I'm not counting another crashes that didn't get the same attention by media.

I really hope this crash can be deeply explained and understood with the help of the recorders and the investigators.

Rgds.

G.
Gear Up!!: DC-3 / EMB-110 / FH-227 / A318-19-20-21 / B732 / B763 / B789 / B788 / A343 / ATR72-600
 
User avatar
litz
Posts: 2381
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 6:01 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Mon Jan 05, 2015 7:42 pm

Considering the extreme wave action going on, even a controlled descent and "landing", would almost assuredly result in fuselage breakup ... probably fore and aft of the center wingbox, possibly tail as well.

anywhere it breaks, you're going to see both passengers and aircraft material (like that cabin window panel) ejected.

If the crack includes a cargo hold, you'd expect to see cargo materials (suitcases, etc) ejected as well.

It's pretty intriguing, though, that they seem to be finding larger "chunks" of sonar shadows, rather than lots of itty bitty little pieces ... and would seem to lend credence to a lower-speed water impact theory.

that single window panel, to me, would seem to support that ... it's not that likely a high speed impact would leave a relatively fragile material like that, as intact as it was.

(all theory, of course)
 
md80fanatic
Posts: 2365
Joined: Tue Apr 13, 2004 11:29 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Mon Jan 05, 2015 8:54 pm

An example of the water clarity and subsurface currents, or the lack thereof, in the general area of this accident.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hqPyGgT--n4
 
4holer
Posts: 2776
Joined: Tue Feb 05, 2002 1:47 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Mon Jan 05, 2015 9:17 pm

Quoting md80fanatic (Reply 18):
An example of the water clarity and subsurface currents, or the lack thereof, in the general area of this accident.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hqPyGgT--n4

Can be made active link by removing the s from the http...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hqPyGgT--n4
Ghosts appear and fade away.....................
 
User avatar
litz
Posts: 2381
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 6:01 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Mon Jan 05, 2015 9:43 pm

Yeah, but that video wasn't taken in the middle of a storm ... even down at depth, there will be currents and movements from that kind of storm activity (and let's not forget, that even if "calm" down below, you still have to get down there, AND back up again!)
 
richierich
Moderator
Posts: 3632
Joined: Sat Nov 04, 2000 5:49 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Mon Jan 05, 2015 9:49 pm

I often read the threads about recent disasters and find people posting wild theories and postulating on the events even when there are precious little facts to go on. I don't mind some of the theories but some of them do seem to get carried away.

Just read USAToday and they are showing seats and other material from AirAsia 8501, probably some of the debris that was floating in the Java Sea. Hard to gain much from some mangled seats, but they were more or less recognizable as seats, so that implies to me that this plane probably did not hit the water at an extreme velocity, although clearly it was enough to break apart the aircraft and, sadly, not offer much of a chance for survival. (I guess at this point it is assumed that all on-board have perished with zero hope for another outcome? The media seems to be afraid to make such a claim...)
More than likely the searchers have found the remains of the aircraft, I would think, but there is always the chance the sonar hits are for something other than 8501. What about the pingers, have those been no help?

What is the latest on the search and recovery? Does anybody have more insight than what I have read? Can somebody provide a summary of THE FACTS as we know them?

May God Bless the victims and their families. Tough way to end 2014.
None shall pass!!!!
 
md80fanatic
Posts: 2365
Joined: Tue Apr 13, 2004 11:29 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Mon Jan 05, 2015 9:56 pm

Quoting litz (Reply 20):
Yeah, but that video wasn't taken in the middle of a storm

What storms? I ask because each picture I see, everyday, is of sunny skies with little to no rainfall. None of the search personnel appear to be dressed for anything bad ... all shirts dry and pressed, etc. I'm only going by what the pictures placed here seem to show ... which by all reasonable accounts looks to be a nice summer day.

Current boating weather in the general area.

http://www.buoyweather.com/wxnav6.js...44969&reqLongitude=111.81884765625

[Edited 2015-01-05 14:09:29]
 
Chaostheory
Posts: 1170
Joined: Wed Mar 06, 2013 2:09 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Mon Jan 05, 2015 11:16 pm

Thanks for the link to that PDF 7BOEING7.

For those who prefer learning via visual aids, the flight test stall lecture video the pdf is based on can be found here on the RoyalAero channel:

http://youtu.be/HVt6LiDbLos

Fortunately, I was able to attend last year along with a couple of a.netters.
 
MD11Engineer
Posts: 13899
Joined: Sun Oct 26, 2003 5:25 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Mon Jan 05, 2015 11:37 pm

Quoting md80fanatic (Reply 18):
An example of the water clarity and subsurface currents, or the lack thereof, in the general area of this accident.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hqPyGgT--n4

I have been diving in the Philippines in the past. Thisfilm was not taken during or immediately after a storm. I have also been to beaches in Philippines shortly after storms and then they are full of broken off corals and other debris.
Plus, the weather is warm there, even during storms. You might get drenched, but you won't get cold.

Jan
Je Suis Charlie et je suis Ahmet aussi
 
User avatar
anfromme
Posts: 883
Joined: Sun Feb 19, 2012 5:58 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Tue Jan 06, 2015 12:16 am

Quoting md80fanatic (Reply 22):
What storms? I ask because each picture I see, everyday, is of sunny skies with little to no rainfall. None of the search personnel appear to be dressed for anything bad ... all shirts dry and pressed, etc. I'm only going by what the pictures placed here seem to show ... which by all reasonable accounts looks to be a nice summer day.

Well, this certainly doesn't look like great weather.
http://uk.reuters.com/video/2015/01/...irasia-crash-sea?videoId=359589047
http://www.reuters.com/video/2015/01...wing-airasia-pla?videoId=360222849

Also, weather on land doesn't necessarily equate weather 450km further north west over sea. In my own humble experience in Ireland, weather in Cork city doesn't even necessarily equate the weather some 20km outside the city in the industrial park my employer is located in.
42
 
aklrno
Posts: 1591
Joined: Sat Dec 04, 2010 11:18 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Tue Jan 06, 2015 12:20 am

Quoting richierich (Reply 21):

I often read the threads about recent disasters and find people posting wild theories and postulating on the events even when there are precious little facts to go on.
Quoting richierich (Reply 21):
Hard to gain much from some mangled seats, but they were more or less recognizable as seats, so that implies to me that this plane probably did not hit the water at an extreme velocity, although clearly it was enough to break apart the aircraft and, sadly, not offer much of a chance for survival.

So then you did exactly the same thing.

How do you know what forces the seats can withstand? How do you know how much of the impact could be cushioned by the crushing of the airframe thus reducing the forces on the contents? The seats have to be able to survive more force than the passengers, so the survival of the seats says nothing about the survival of their contents. As a general rule, the smaller something is (and the lighter it is) the greater the impact force it can survive.

An iPhone can be broken by dropping it on the floor. A chip inside it could probably survive a rocket trip to mars including a crash landing without a retro rocket. You have no data, I have no data, speculation is worthless.
 
md80fanatic
Posts: 2365
Joined: Tue Apr 13, 2004 11:29 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Tue Jan 06, 2015 12:53 am

The weather link I provided came from a webpage that allowed the user to simply click on a map of the Java Sea to get the latest weather report closest to the area of the click. Clicking the area of the current search zone, brief report gave "all green" for most marine activities, which I assume includes scuba diving.
 
User avatar
yellowtail
Posts: 3938
Joined: Fri Jun 17, 2005 3:46 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Tue Jan 06, 2015 2:36 am

Quoting md11engineer (Reply 24):
Plus, the weather is warm there, even during storms. You might get drenched, but you won't get cold.

You can get very cold in the tropics during storms, especially when wet. Trust me, I have been through many. Many cases of folks suffering from exposure (even hypthothermia) during hurricanes.don't take much to drop the body's temp from 98F.
When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
 
MD11Engineer
Posts: 13899
Joined: Sun Oct 26, 2003 5:25 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Tue Jan 06, 2015 3:04 am

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 28):
Quoting md11engineer (Reply 24):
Plus, the weather is warm there, even during storms. You might get drenched, but you won't get cold.

You can get very cold in the tropics during storms, especially when wet. Trust me, I have been through many. Many cases of folks suffering from exposure (even hypthothermia) during hurricanes.don't take much to drop the body's temp from 98F.

Sure, if you are wet, the windchill factor comes into play. But I found the aircons turned to max cold worse (I always catch a cold when I'm e.g. in the Philippines. I had to tell my in laws that at 18 dgrees centigrade I put the heater on).
I have been comparing a storm in the tropics with a storm here in northern Europe, or what I experienced in north east Kazakhstan and in Novosibirsk in February.

Jan
Je Suis Charlie et je suis Ahmet aussi
 
cheeken
Posts: 165
Joined: Thu Feb 11, 2010 10:21 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Tue Jan 06, 2015 7:06 am

Quoting aklrno (Reply 26):
You have no data, I have no data, speculation is worthless.

But I thought the whole idea of a forum is speculation (within reason)

              
 
lancelot07
Posts: 1078
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:22 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Tue Jan 06, 2015 10:16 am

Quoting cheeken (Reply 30):
But I thought the whole idea of a forum is speculation (within reason)

+1
even when we sometimes forget reason. 
 
anatolialevant
Posts: 42
Joined: Tue May 08, 2012 3:18 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Tue Jan 06, 2015 10:36 am

Sorry to bring this up again, but I remember someone had raised a possibility about the Emergency AD 2 weeks before the crash about the Lufthansa A320 suffering computer glitch that pulls it downward in sudden action. Is that still a possibility or was it ruled out?

If the computer issue is still a plausible reason, I think I know why the plane crashed, however I don't want to talk about it openly in forum, only via PM. Mainly, its just a speculation and my idea, also because I want to respect the family/ies who might read this site. However, I dare to say I'm in the "weather as the first cause" camp.
 
LovesCoffee
Posts: 222
Joined: Thu May 31, 2012 4:07 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Tue Jan 06, 2015 11:06 am

Quoting thunderboltdrgn (Reply 9):
I am certain that you are correct but regular people might have a wider definition of the term "tail section".

This would be a learning experience (one of many) on A.net for the 'regular people' (I am one too) to learn what terms professional people use for AC parts/sections. I would rather learn and then use the term used in the industry than to 'dumb down' the language to make A.net just another CNN.
Life is too short for cheap coffee.
 
LovesCoffee
Posts: 222
Joined: Thu May 31, 2012 4:07 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Tue Jan 06, 2015 11:24 am

Quoting asetiadi (Reply 10):
My thoughts:
We know this license issue because of the tragedy and I wonder how many airlines out there in Indonesia right now that have these similar violation.

Please, just give it up or start another thread on this issue. It has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with the crash. And it tends to hijack/clutter up the thread.   

Quoting asetiadi (Reply 10):
3. PT Indonesia AirAsia offers Rp 300 million / US$ 24.000 to the families of victims of PT Air Wagon International (Indonesia)">QZ 8501 AirAsia plane that crashed in the waters near the Strait Karimata Java Sea as part of the early compensation.

A little misleading the way you posted. This US$ 24,000 is just for expenses related to the period while the search is ongoing. It is not compensation for the deaths, that will come later.
Life is too short for cheap coffee.
 
namezero111111
Posts: 139
Joined: Thu Mar 20, 2014 7:05 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Tue Jan 06, 2015 11:58 am

Can we agree that "tail section" = empennage?
 
LovesCoffee
Posts: 222
Joined: Thu May 31, 2012 4:07 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Tue Jan 06, 2015 12:36 pm

Quoting namezero111111 (Reply 35):
Can we agree that "tail section" = empennage?

Sure. Part of my point was just that, if we all use the same terminology, it will reduce some of the confusion. And it seemed best to use industry terminology.   
Life is too short for cheap coffee.
 
Rivet42
Posts: 608
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2005 11:26 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Tue Jan 06, 2015 12:44 pm

Quoting namezero111111 (Reply 35):
Can we agree that "tail section" = empennage?
We can, but if the media and authorities report it as 'tail section', or 'tailplane', we are none the wiser. Only when we have visual confirmation (in situ or via photograph) of what they are talking about can we be certain exactly what it comprises.

Do we have that visual confirmation yet?

Riv'
I travel, therefore I am.
 
anatolialevant
Posts: 42
Joined: Tue May 08, 2012 3:18 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Tue Jan 06, 2015 1:07 pm

Quoting Rivet42 (Reply 37):
We can, but if the media and authorities report it as 'tail section', or 'tailplane', we are none the wiser. Only when we have visual confirmation (in situ or via photograph) of what they are talking about can we be certain exactly what it comprises.

Do we have that visual confirmation yet?

Riv'

I believe not. They still continuously trying to confirm several sonar images, but no more words spoken about if they really have seen the parts.

Btw, So far, not major flight surfaces like vertical or horizontal stabs are floating, but all debris that was recovered so far are in large, quite intact (like a full set of seats with the deceased still strapped on it). A bit odd for me, if the crash was a major high speed impact, a lot of small debris should be on the site (which we all know the debris are large) but if it is a slow speed ditching-like impact, why no confirmation so far? Isn't a slow speed impact left you with large size chunks, easily identifiable on sonar?
 
md80fanatic
Posts: 2365
Joined: Tue Apr 13, 2004 11:29 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Tue Jan 06, 2015 1:33 pm

Be careful, the only LARGE items found have been in the words of the search teams. The largest was ruled as a piece of a shipwreck yesterday, and the others may go the same way. To date I believe the only items retrieved were floating, and nothing from the plane has been brought to the surface. That means the main debris field perhaps has still not been found.

Please note that whole rows of plane seats are manufactured together as a unit, so you should not be surprised to see an entire row still together, even after a high speed impact.

It may be safe to presume one thing, that with automated submersibles and decent diving conditions, low winds and seas, that if nothing significant is found by nightfall today, on the seabed, then the search teams still have no clue where the main debris field is located.

[Edited 2015-01-06 05:40:32]
 
anatolialevant
Posts: 42
Joined: Tue May 08, 2012 3:18 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Tue Jan 06, 2015 1:42 pm

http://news.detik.com/read/2015/01/06/202619/2795780/10/ini-penampakan-2-objek-besar-yang-ditemukan-uss-fort-worth?9911012

2 sonar photos are captured by USS Fort Worth today. Those 2 are considered a large metal object, resting at around 93ft (30-ish meters) deep underwater. The top picture (the first one) is suspiciously looking like front section of the airplane (the width is 4.6m, somewhat close to A320 diameter). Do my suspicion correct?

Edit: Not sure what it is on the second photo, though.

[Edited 2015-01-06 05:44:37]
 
namezero111111
Posts: 139
Joined: Thu Mar 20, 2014 7:05 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Tue Jan 06, 2015 1:42 pm

Quoting anatolialevant (Reply 38):
Isn't a slow speed impact left you with large size chunks, easily identifiable on sonar?

Yes, sonar operators will have a (much) easier time finding large objects.
See here for an example what this might look like on side scan:
http://www.shipwreckworld.com/articles/gallery/40/110/
 
md80fanatic
Posts: 2365
Joined: Tue Apr 13, 2004 11:29 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Tue Jan 06, 2015 1:59 pm

It also looks like the bow of pretty much every boat ever launched.
 
richierich
Moderator
Posts: 3632
Joined: Sat Nov 04, 2000 5:49 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Tue Jan 06, 2015 3:07 pm

Quoting aklrno (Reply 26):
So then you did exactly the same thing.

How do you know what forces the seats can withstand? How do you know how much of the impact could be cushioned by the crushing of the airframe thus reducing the forces on the contents? The seats have to be able to survive more force than the passengers, so the survival of the seats says nothing about the survival of their contents. As a general rule, the smaller something is (and the lighter it is) the greater the impact force it can survive.

An iPhone can be broken by dropping it on the floor. A chip inside it could probably survive a rocket trip to mars including a crash landing without a retro rocket. You have no data, I have no data, speculation is worthless.

If we limited posts to only "facts", this thread would be about a dozen posts long.
I think some reasoning and speculation is thought-provoking and informative; I merely said that some people tend to get very carried away in their speculation. I have no issues with people who speculate that weather *may* have been a factor or how it may have been a factor in this crash - it is when it is assumed that weather *was* the cause that I draw the line.

I am surprised by the lack of solid evidence and the fact the wreckage has not been pinpointed more than a week later. This is not MH370 and it didn't disappear over a large swath of desolate ocean. The few photos of wreckage that have been recovered, all floating as far as I know, don't give much away. The seats and a life raft were the only identifiable pieces I have seen. Based on what observations from other crashes, the fact that a set of three seats looked like a seat of seats (armrests and all) seemed to me to show an impact that was something less than a nosedive into the ocean. Yes, it is speculation, but hardly a wild speculation, is it?

Quoting cheeken (Reply 30):
But I thought the whole idea of a forum is speculation (within reason)

Exactly.
None shall pass!!!!
 
lowbank
Posts: 512
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 9:10 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Tue Jan 06, 2015 5:40 pm

If you watch this short video you will learn the joint configuration and make up of the A320.

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nWtlDsteh5o

If the airplane broke at its joints and they are the weakest and most probable points you are looking for 4 large pieces.

That planes dimensions are approx 38 metres long, depends where it broke and I am not sure of the exact joint position but the rear section looks longer than the front on the video by a couple of meters, fuse width is approx 4 meters.

Wingspan is 36 meters approx minus the 4 for the fuse giving you wings approx 16 meters long.

So the photos linked certainly fit for an approx dimensions point. So could be but only time will tell.
Every days a school day.
 
lowbank
Posts: 512
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 9:10 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Tue Jan 06, 2015 5:47 pm

I pulled some of the (facts) that Mandala499 posted over the course of a couple of threads.

Info from Mandala499 thread 4 post 51

Quoting awthompson (Reply 18):
As I have stated in an earlier thread and one or two other posters have hinted, I don't believe QZ8501 was brought down by in flight damage/breakup as a result of an unexpected encounter with severe thunderstorm related turbulence, wind shear, hail, water ingestion etc. etc. I also doubt that 'severe' or 'extreme' airframe icing was at play.

I doubt it was icing. Something, took this aircraft out of its normal envelope pretty quickly... Under normal circumstances, you do not climb 4000ft and lose 100kts of groundspeed, and do so in less than a minute.
The information I got is that from 32000 to 36300 and down again to 24000ft or so took just over a minute.

Quoting awthompson (Reply 18):
Why? ....... WelI, for starters I don't believe a crew used to flying in the region messed up so bad as to get their airplane into such a situation!

There are some new weather phenomenon that's occurring in the region, there was something unique that never occured before... which may have had a factor, but I won't divulge this until I get more information...
But crew messing up so bad? It happens more than you think... and that's not limited to Indonesian airlines. I've seen local and foreign operators screw up their fuel escape plan here whenever a CB turns up over Jakarta... Seen also how some local and foreign operator asking for a deviation that would make them get closer to more severe weather, only for us on the ground to say, "WTH is he thinking?", followed a few minutes later by the aircraft realizing the mistake and we on the ground have a chuckle and laugh about it.

I flew the day before and the evening of the day of QZ8501 going missing, within one of the same significant weather areas, but still about 200NM west of the location... All you can see is cloud, with nice "rapidly accumulating and dissipating cumulus" happening all around and surrounding the CBs... while the ride was mostly only light chop... we did have some moderate chop... and some flights reported "worse"...

Previously we had you westerners laugh at us when we report icing at -40C "because it's too cold"... we now have icing at -45C and there was an instance a few days ago of suspected icing claimed at -50C...

Quoting awthompson (Reply 18):
With QZ8501, temporary loss of airspeed data as a result of pitot icing, followed by incorrect/confused crew reaction is a big possibility akin to AF447. Or indeed some other factor resulting in an inadvertent stall at high altitude is again very possible.

We may be looking at something more catastrophic, some of the data points that way, but not yet conclusive.

Quoting aircatalonia (Reply 24):
If the airplane didn't suffer a catastrophic event at cruise why didn't ADS-B broadcast information during their descent?

Ding dong... this is one clue...
But, Mode-S readings were available for the over 1 minute or so of climb and descend prior to disappearance. All I can say is, it ain't a pretty picture.

Quoting aircatalonia (Reply 24):
Surely it didn't drop 30,000ft in less than 2 or 3 minutes, or did it?

As I said, "it ain't a pretty picture"...

In another post later by Mandala499. Thread 4 post 62

Aircraft was seen on radar at FL363 doing 354kts ground speed.
Crew requested deviations "due to weather" and change in altitude "due to turbulence".

Thread 6 post 57

---
ANYWAYS...
Aircraft was seen on radar at FL363 and 353kts ground speed... later on, mode-S data showed it was at FL240 at -11000fpm and just over 60kts ground speed.
The climb rates of over 6000fpm and even up to 9000fpm were recorded on the Mode-S. Sources also said that at times the aircraft exceeded -24000fpm (yes, 3 zeroes)...
The other thing is that the climb, peak, descend and disintegration/disappearance (ie: FL320 to FL360 over, to FL240 where it disappeared) took just under 1 minute and 10 seconds or so.
Aircraft turned left throughout the drama, except for the end where it tracked east varying plus minus 5 degrees... through the very fast descent rates prior to disappearance.

Now, AF447 had peaks of +9500, and -16500fpm... this -24000fpm baffles me at the moment...
Every days a school day.
 
lowbank
Posts: 512
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 9:10 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Tue Jan 06, 2015 5:56 pm

That main thing I missed when first readings his posts, before copying them into one place, and I did ask him if this was the case, was the fact that two separate methods of reading height and speed have been looked at.

If you read them he states that the plane is seen on radar at FL363 and 354 ground speed and also the ads-b data shows similar data, this must be why he is confident in this data.

That's about all we know and will know until the black boxes are recovered.
Every days a school day.
 
cialome
Posts: 6
Joined: Sun Mar 16, 2014 11:46 pm

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Tue Jan 06, 2015 6:25 pm

Side line question from a lurker:

Seeing this:
I doubt it was icing. Something, took this aircraft out of its normal envelope pretty quickly... Under normal circumstances, you do not climb 4000ft and lose 100kts of groundspeed, and do so in less than a minute. The information I got is that from 32000 to 36300 and down again to 24000ft or so took just over a minute.

My question is - what type of energy is needed before you start to see necks being snapped? I have no idea what level of intensity the above represents - bad roller coaster ride, bad injuries even though you are buckled into your seat or the above represents impending doom.

I realize the data is preliminary and cannot be trusted at this point, etc. I am asking given the above paragraph, what does that type of event represent for the passengers (or even stresses on the plane for that matter if it can be outlined).

Thanks for the input.
thomas
 
hivue
Posts: 2125
Joined: Tue Feb 26, 2013 2:26 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Tue Jan 06, 2015 6:28 pm

Quoting anatolialevant (Reply 32):
someone had raised a possibility about the Emergency AD 2 weeks before the crash about the Lufthansa A320 suffering computer glitch that pulls it downward in sudden action. Is that still a possibility or was it ruled out?

Nothing has been ruled out.

The AD did not concern a "computer glitch," but rather an issue with frozen AoA vanes which, under the right conditions, can cause Alpha Prot to activate and the flight control system to therefore command nose-down pitch rates.

Quoting anatolialevant (Reply 32):
If the computer issue is still a plausible reason, I think I know why the plane crashed

Anyone entertaining the AoA vane issue as a possible contributing factor could do the same with a little imagination.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
User avatar
ER757
Posts: 3995
Joined: Tue May 10, 2005 10:16 am

RE: Air Asia QZ8501 SUB To SIN Crash - Part 8

Tue Jan 06, 2015 7:26 pm

Quoting md80fanatic (Reply 42):
It also looks like the bow of pretty much every boat ever launched.

Looks more like the front end of an aircraft to me. Looks like you can make out the cockpit windows although that could just be noise in the photo image. Fingers crossed it's part of the wreckage

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos