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enilria
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OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 2:43 pm

FAQ

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares what is for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS AT Macedonian Airlines (Greece)">IN ADVANCE?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. I remove the schedule adds if I see them and show a year over year (YOY) comparison if I notice them.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard. This causes flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

7H ANI-KSM FEB 0.3>0.1 MAR 0.3>0.2 APR 0.3>0.1 MAY 0.3>0.2 JUN 0.3>0.1 JUL 0.3>0.1 AUG 0.3>0.2 SEP 0.3>0.1

AT JFK-CMN APR 1.3>1.4 MAY 1.3>1.4 JUN 1.6>1.8 JUL 1.7>2 AUG 1.7>2 SEP 1.3>1.5

CX ORD-HKG MAR 1.3>1.1 APR 1.4>1.0 MAY 1.5>1.0 JUN 1.4>1.0 JUL 1.5>1.0 AUG 1.4>1.0 SEP 1.4>1.0

DL ATL-BTR MAR 8>7
DL ATL-CAE MAR 9>8
DL ATL-SHV MAR 6>5
DL ATL-SJC AUG 1.8>1.0 SEP 1.9>1.0
DL ATL-SXM SEP 0.3>0.4
DL BOS-AMS APR 1.0>1.6
That's a lot of frequency
*DL BOS-CMH MAR 1.6>3 APR 1.5>3 MAY 1.6>3 JUN 1.7>3 JUL 1.6>3 AUG 1.5>3 SEP 1.6>3
DL CVG-BDL MAR 1.7>3
Couple of CVG flights back in the endless swapping
DL CVG-EWR JUN 1.6>3 JUL 1.6>3 AUG 1.5>3 SEP 1.4>3
DL CVG-RIC MAR 0.9>1.7 APR 0.8>1.7 MAY 0.7>1.5 JUN 0.9>1.7 JUL 0.9>1.7 AUG 0.8>1.7 SEP 0.9>1.7
DL DTW-BNA MAR 5>4
DL DTW-ERI MAR 1.9>3
DL DTW-GSO MAR 2>3 APR 1.8>3
DL DTW-GSP MAR 3>4 APR 3>4 MAY 3>4 JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4 SEP 3>4
DL DTW-IND MAR 6>7
DL DTW-PVD MAR 3>2
DL DTW-SDF MAR 4>5 APR 4>5 MAY 4>5
DL DTW-YUL MAR 1.9>4 APR 3>4 MAY 3>4 SEP 3>4
DL GRR-MSP MAR 5>4
DL IND-MSP MAR 5>4
DL JFK-ACK JUN 0.9>1.8 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2
DL JFK-ATH JUN 1.6>1.7 JUL 1.6>1.7 AUG 1.5>1.7
DL JFK-MSP JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4 SEP 3>4
DL JFK-MVY JUN 0.3>1.3 JUL 0.3>1.3 AUG 0.3>1.3
DL JFK-ORD SEP 4>5
*DL JFK-ORF MAR 1.0>0.0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0
*DL JFK-PBI JUN 1.0>0.1 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0
DL JFK-RIC JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3 SEP 2>3
*DL JFK-RSW JUN 1.0>0.1 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0
DL JFK-SVO APR 0.9>0.7 MAY 0.8>0.7 JUN 0.9>0.7 JUL 0.8>0.7 AUG 0.9>0.7 SEP 0.9>0.7
DL LAX-MZT MAY 0.2>0.3 JUN 0.1>0.3 JUL 0.1>0.3 AUG 0.2>0.3 SEP 0.1>0.3
DL LGA-RSW APR 4>5
DL MSP-SAN MAY 3>4
DL PHL-LHR APR 0.8>0.2
*DL PIT-CUN JUN 0>0.1 JUL 0>0.1 AUG 0>0.2
DL SLC-MCO MAY 1.9>3 JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3 SEP 2>3

G4 GTF-LAS JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.4>0.3 AUG 0.5>0.3 SEP 0.4>0.3

HU ORD-PEK SEP 0.6>0.9

K5 BUR-IPL APR 0>1.7 MAY 0>1.7 JUN 0>1.6 JUL 0>1.6 AUG 0>1.5 SEP 0>1.6
K5 BUR-SAN APR 3>4 MAY 2>3 JUN 0>4 JUL 0>4 AUG 0>3 SEP 0>4
K5 BUR-VIS FEB 0>1.3 MAR 0>1.7 APR 0>1.7 MAY 0>1.7 JUN 0>0.9 JUL 0>0.9 AUG 0>0.8 SEP 0>0.9
K5 GLH-MEM FEB 3>0 MAR 3>0 APR 3>0 MAY 3>0 JUN 3>0 JUL 3>0 AUG 3>0 SEP 3>0
K5 GST-HNH FEB 0>0.9
K5 GST-JNU FEB 0>4 MAR 0>0.8
K5 HNH-JNU FEB 0>0.9
K5 HNS-JNU FEB 0>1.9
K5 HNS-SGY FEB 0>1.7
K5 IPL-SAN APR 0>1.7 MAY 0>1.7 JUN 0>1.6 JUL 0>1.6 AUG 0>1.5 SEP 0>1.6
K5 JNU-SGY FEB 0>1.7

LA MIA-SCL JUL 1.7>3 AUG 1.8>3

MW HNM-JHM FEB 1.0>0 MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0
MW HNM-KOA FEB 0>1.0 MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0
MW MKK-OGG FEB 10>11 MAR 10>11 APR 10>11 MAY 10>11

SE JFK-CDG JUN 1.0>1.1 JUL 1.0>1.3 AUG 1.0>1.2

SY DFW-CUN AUG 1.0>1.3 SEP 0>0.6

UA BMG-IND FEB 0.1>0.0
UA DEN-ANC JUN 1.0>1.9 JUL 1.0>2
UA DEN-BOS JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4 SEP 3>4
UA DEN-CUN MAY 1.1>1.2
FCA/MSO are not really equipment downgrades, capacity is up considerably.
*UA DEN-FCA JUN 1.1>2 JUL 1.0>5 AUG 1.0>5 SEP 1.0>4
*UA DEN-MSO JUN 4>5 JUL 3>6 AUG 3>6 SEP 3>5
*UA DEN-OGG JUN 0.1>0.9 JUL 0.1>1.0
UA EWR-CID FEB 0.1>0.0
UA EWR-CUN SEP 1.1>1.4
UA IAD-CHO MAR 4>3
UA IAD-CUN JUN 1.0>1.3
Wow, this route has been flown forever.
*UA IAD-HSV APR 0.9>0.2 MAY 1.4>0 JUN 1.6>0 JUL 1.6>0 AUG 1.5>0 SEP 1.6>0
UA IAD-ROA MAR 1.9>1.2
UA IAH-PVR MAY 2>1.2 JUN 2>1.9
UA IAH-RNO JUN 0.9>0.3
UA ORD-AUA MAR 1.0>1.1
UA ORD-BTV MAY 4>3
UA ORD-CHS MAY 4>3 SEP 4>3
UA ORD-CID MAY 6>7 JUN 6>7 JUL 6>7 AUG 6>7 SEP 6>7
UA ORD-CUN AUG 1.3>1.5
UA ORD-DTW MAY 7>6
Why all the HSV cuts?
*UA ORD-HSV APR 1.0>0.2 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0
UA ORD-MCI APR 6>7
UA ORD-MEM APR 5>6 MAY 5>6 JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6 SEP 5>6
UA ORD-MLI MAY 6>5
UA ORD-MSN MAY 8>7
UA ORD-OKC MAY 4>3
UA ORD-ORF APR 3>4
UA ORD-PHL MAY 7>6
UA ORD-ROA APR 3>1.9 JUL 3>2 AUG 3>1.9 SEP 3>1.7
UA ORD-ROC MAY 5>4
UA ORD-STC FEB 1.9>0.9
UA ORD-SYR MAY 5>4
UA ORD-YWG MAY 4>3
UA SFO-CUN SEP 0.5>0.4

VS LAS-MAN AUG 0.3>0.4 SEP 0.3>0.4
VS MCO-MAN AUG 1.5>1.8

VX SFO-SJD APR 0.8>0.9
 
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adamh8297
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 2:51 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL BOS-CMH MAR 1.6>3 APR 1.5>3 MAY 1.6>3 JUN 1.7>3 JUL 1.6>3 AUG 1.5>3 SEP 1.6>3

Isn't this a reversal of a previous decrease?
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN

2019: CX BOS-HKG, WE HKG-HKT, CA HKT-PEK-EWR, B6 EWR-BOS
 
jetblue1965
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 2:56 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):

CX ORD-HKG MAR 1.3>1.1 APR 1.4>1.0 MAY 1.5>1.0 JUN 1.4>1.0 JUL 1.5>1.0 AUG 1.4>1.0 SEP 1.4>1.0

So much for the A.net myth that CX slaughters UA

I wonder if the DFW-HKG flight is siphoning connecting traffic off the CX ORD service ...
 
FlyPNS1
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 2:58 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Why all the HSV cuts?

I think UA's general weakness in the south combined with some cuts to defense spending (particularly travel budgets) have taken their toll on HSV. Keep in mind, both these routes are competitive as AA also flies HSV-ORD and AA flies HSV-DCA. I'm guessing UA decided those markets weren't big enough to compete for with AA.
 
Cubsrule
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 3:03 pm

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 3):
I think UA's general weakness in the south combined with some cuts to defense spending (particularly travel budgets) have taken their toll on HSV.

  

Many people, I think, haven't really stopped to think about how strong AA now is in the southeast. It has strong hubs for passengers going east/intra-southeast (CLT), south (MIA), west (DFW) and north (ORD). UA has 2 or maybe 2.5 of those. DL has 3 (though the gap is perhaps smaller than this simple analysis might suggest due to ATL's massive pull).
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
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AVLAirlineFreq
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 3:07 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL JFK-ORF MAR 1.0>0.0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0

I'm surprised by this. It means that anyone flying DL from ORF to Europe will have to fly through DTW or backtrack through ATL.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
K5 GLH-MEM FEB 3>0 MAR 3>0 APR 3>0 MAY 3>0 JUN 3>0 JUL 3>0 AUG 3>0 SEP 3>0

These EAS flights were just announced in November and haven't even begun.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*UA IAD-HSV APR 0.9>0.2 MAY 1.4>0 JUN 1.6>0 JUL 1.6>0 AUG 1.5>0 SEP 1.6>0
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*UA ORD-HSV APR 1.0>0.2 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0

So UA in HSV is down to only IAH? Wow.
 
usairways85
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 3:11 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DL PHL-LHR APR 0.8>0.2

Starting later?

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA ORD-PHL MAY 7>6

This is pretty absurd, WN probably has more capacity on PHL-MDW than UA does on PHL-ORD.
 
jayunited
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 3:14 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 2):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):

CX ORD-HKG MAR 1.3>1.1 APR 1.4>1.0 MAY 1.5>1.0 JUN 1.4>1.0 JUL 1.5>1.0 AUG 1.4>1.0 SEP 1.4>1.0

So much for the A.net myth that CX slaughters UA

I wonder if the DFW-HKG flight is siphoning connecting traffic off the CX ORD service ...

True UA does hold it's own agains CX on this route now that the more reliable 772ER is flying the route instead of the the 744.

But I think the part of the resin CX is trimming this route is because the the early morning or late night (however your choose to look at it) departure time. Chicago is not New York, LA, or San Francisco and what works in those cities doesn't necessarily work here. CX is probably averaging high 80's or even low 90 percent load factor on their daily afternoon departure but from the very few times I've worked overnights for a little over time CX's late night/early morning departure load factors are horrible. So it is no surprise that CX has decided to cancel their second 3x weekly nonstop and they are not the first Asian airline to try a late night departure from ORD some years back KE also added a second 3x weekly late night departure and they ended up pulling their second flight as well. For whatever reason these late night departures don't work from ORD despite the advantages of arriving in Asia early in the morning.
 
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hufftheweevil
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 3:19 pm

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 6):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DL PHL-LHR APR 0.8>0.2

Starting later?

That, or it's already being cut back before it starts.
Huff
 
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enilria
Topic Author
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 3:22 pm

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 1):
Isn't this a reversal of a previous decrease?

I believe so.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 3):
I think UA's general weakness in the south
Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 4):
Many people, I think, haven't really stopped to think about how strong AA now is in the southeast.

This really shows how the mergers have caused a previously viable carrier like UA to be essentially forced out because they have no Southeast hub. I'd call that ominous and it is another example of why this last round of mergers was a mistake. You now have super-powerful Delta and AA/US gaining power owning the Southeast to all directions. I wonder if we will see other dominoes fall?

Is UA's missing SE hub the biggest network omission among the big 3?

Quoting AVLAirlineFreq (Reply 5):
So UA in HSV is down to only IAH? Wow.

They still have DEN I believe, but I have to think that is on life support.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 6):
Starting later?

I believe so
Quoting AVLAirlineFreq (Reply 5):
I'm surprised by this. It means that anyone flying DL from ORF to Europe will have to fly through DTW or backtrack through ATL.
Doesn't DL have ORF-BOS? If so, how can they fly that and not fly JFK? I wonder if we will see this reversed? Clearly these JFK and CVG markets they keep changing every week are so weak that DL is juggling which survive and which die on a moment by moment basis.
 
HPRamper
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 3:24 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DL PHL-LHR APR 0.8>0.2

I thought this route was announced fairly recently. Seems strange to be modifying it so soon, at least for DL.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 6):
This is pretty absurd, WN probably has more capacity on PHL-MDW than UA does on PHL-ORD.

UA has made a practice of not trying to compete on other carriers' hub routes. PHL-ORD is also now hub-hub which makes it very tough to go up against.
 
jetblue1965
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 3:26 pm

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 6):


Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA ORD-PHL MAY 7>6

This is pretty absurd, WN probably has more capacity on PHL-MDW than UA does on PHL-ORD.

It's just a 1 month reduction. July still shows 7x daily (5 mainline 2 express)
 
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jetblastdubai
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 3:28 pm

Quoting AVLAirlineFreq (Reply 5):
o UA in HSV is down to only IAH? Wow.

UAL.COM is showing 3x to IAH and 1x to DEN.

Not sure about anyone else but domestically, what good is a single trip per day in any market? The chances of that single daily flight schedule working for anyone except the purely leisure traveler has to be slim. Is it worth keeping a station open for only 4 daily regional flights? (3 on weekends)
 
HPRamper
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 3:33 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 9):
This really shows how the mergers have caused a previously viable carrier like UA to be essentially forced out because they have no Southeast hub. I'd call that ominous and it is another example of why this last round of mergers was a mistake. You now have super-powerful Delta and AA/US gaining power owning the Southeast to all directions. I wonder if we will see other dominoes fall?

Is UA's missing SE hub the biggest network omission among the big 3?

I'd say yes. Followed by DL in Texas and the southern Midwest, and then AA on the West Coast although they are working on catching up. In terms of population density, the Southeast is the most important of these, yes, and I wonder if UA originally thought IAD+IAH would be sufficient to serve the region or if they knew they would be punting.
 
Rdh3e
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 3:33 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*UA IAD-HSV APR 0.9>0.2 MAY 1.4>0 JUN 1.6>0 JUL 1.6>0 AUG 1.5>0 SEP 1.6>0
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*UA ORD-HSV APR 1.0>0.2 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0
Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 3):
I'm guessing UA decided those markets weren't big enough to compete for with AA.
Quoting enilria (Reply 9):
This really shows how the mergers have caused a previously viable carrier like UA to be essentially forced out

Let's not be so dramatic, both flights are still selling on United.com and can be found on Kayak.com. Must be an error in OAG.
 
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enilria
Topic Author
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 3:36 pm

Quoting AVLAirlineFreq (Reply 5):
These EAS flights were just announced in November and haven't even begun.

Enough pilots?

Quoting jetblastdubai (Reply 12):
UAL.COM is showing 3x to IAH and 1x to DEN.

...and service only to the West is death. They will lose basically 100% of their HSV-end sales. It will become an inbound only market and I don't think it can survive like that.
 
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hufftheweevil
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 3:37 pm

Quoting RDH3E (Reply 14):
Let's not be so dramatic, both flights are still selling on United.com and can be found on Kayak.com. Must be an error in OAG.

The way I always understood this report is that these changes don't take effect until the date in the title. So for this one, January 9th. I may be wrong.
Huff
 
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AVLAirlineFreq
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 3:40 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 9):
Quoting AVLAirlineFreq (Reply 5):
So UA in HSV is down to only IAH? Wow.

They still have DEN I believe, but I have to think that is on life support.

Yes, thank you, they do. Forgot about that.
 
IAHWorldflyer
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 3:50 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA ORD-MEM APR 5>6 MAY 5>6 JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6 SEP 5>6

Last month we saw DL drop ORD-MEM. I see UA is picking up one frequency. I wonder if AA will also add a frequency to this route?
 
kcrwflyer
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 3:55 pm

Quoting jetblastdubai (Reply 12):
Is it worth keeping a station open for only 4 daily regional flights? (3 on weekends)

They'd have to close a bunch of cities if it's not. Plenty cities only have a few flights per day. They usually pay a contract ground handler, and voila.

Quoting jetblastdubai (Reply 12):
Not sure about anyone else but domestically, what good is a single trip per day in any market? The chances of that single daily flight schedule working for anyone except the purely leisure traveler has to be slim.

It happens all the time. It's not a big deal. 2 is better, but 1 happens plenty. Not every market can support 2. There are 3 routes from my airport that only have 1 flight per day.
 
FlyPNS1
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 3:58 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 9):
This really shows how the mergers have caused a previously viable carrier like UA to be essentially forced out because they have no Southeast hub.

I don't think UA has ever been strong in HSV and always struggled. Plus, cuts to defense spending and UA's overall weakness at IAD haven't helped. You'll note that UA is still flying HSV-IAH which is one route that is strong.

Quoting enilria (Reply 9):
Is UA's missing SE hub the biggest network omission among the big 3?

I would say yes. UA is a weak player in most of the Southeast, however this was true even before the mergers. However, you are right that AA and DL will be the dominant players going forward in the South.

Quoting enilria (Reply 15):
...and service only to the West is death. They will lose basically 100% of their HSV-end sales. It will become an inbound only market and I don't think it can survive like that.

Lots of markets survive that way, though it's not ideal. Many Southern markets (PNS, MOB, VPS, GPT) have only service to the West, but UA manages to survive ok.

Given the strength of the IAH hub, UA can probably make it work. Heck, UA just added ECP-IAH which is a very weak, leisure route with almost no ECP-end sales, so I imagine they can keep HSV alive.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 4):
I think, haven't really stopped to think about how strong AA now is in the southeast. It has strong hubs for passengers going east/intra-southeast (CLT), south (MIA), west (DFW) and north (ORD).

Agreed, the combined AA/US is quite a player in the Southeast now and they are starting to flex their muscle. Look at a deep South market like PNS (where DL is the traditionally dominant player) and you'll see AA making aggressive moves this fall. This March/April, AA will do the following:

PNS-DFW goes from 5x ERJ to 3xMD80, 1xCR7, 1xERJ
PNS-CLT goes from 3xCR9 to 3xCR9, 1xCRJ7
PNS-MIA goes from 3xERJ to 2xE75
PNS-DCA remains as Sa/Su only CRJ200

That's a strong schedule that easily rivals DL which flies PNS-ATL 7x daily all with MD88/MD90.
 
MaverickM11
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 3:59 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL JFK-ORF MAR 1.0>0.0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0
*DL JFK-PBI JUN 1.0>0.1 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0
DL JFK-RIC JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3 SEP 2>3
*DL JFK-RSW JUN 1.0>0.1 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0

How many domestic points has JFK lost in the last month or two? Between the ueber seasonal international flying and reduction in domestic points, what does DL even do half of the year in JFK?
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redzeppelin
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 4:04 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DL SLC-MCO MAY 1.9>3 JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3 SEP 2>3

Has this ever been 3x? Are they just trying to push B6 off the route?
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 4:04 pm

UA is rebanking ORD this spring. A UA spokesman said that some routes would see a slight reduction in frequency, but that a number of flights would use larger aircraft. IIRC, UA would have a slighty fewer flights, but more seats because of upgauging.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 4:04 pm

I wouldn't be surprised if HSV was a case of the airlines pricing themselves right out of a market. If they lowered fares to even a reasonable level they'd have no problem filling a few RJs.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 4:10 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 11):

It's just a 1 month reduction. July still shows 7x daily (5 mainline 2 express)

..For now, they seem to keep pushing this reduction closer and closer to the busy summer season. It is likely too far out but Apr/May show mostly 320/319s on the route when most of the mainline flights are on 738/739 in Jan-Mar.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 10):
UA has made a practice of not trying to compete on other carriers' hub routes. PHL-ORD is also now hub-hub which makes it very tough to go up against.

Unfortunately for paxs, that is more than likely the reason.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 4:20 pm

Quoting AVLAirlineFreq (Reply 5):
So UA in HSV is down to only IAH? Wow.

Does Uncle Sam (NASA) still generate any traffic on this route to speak of or has all of that dried up?
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 4:31 pm

Small changes at AA too effective 29MAR15. Noticed that ATL-ORD is up gauging one of the morning flights to 738. MIA-LHR will now operate with 2 777's instead of 1 77W and 1 777
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 4:31 pm

Quoting hufftheweevil (Reply 16):
The way I always understood this report is that these changes don't take effect until the date in the title. So for this one, January 9th. I may be wrong.
Quoting RDH3E (Reply 14):
Let's not be so dramatic, both flights are still selling on United.com and can be found on Kayak.com. Must be an error in OAG.

Well, they do still appear to be for sale on ua.com. Perhaps it is the same problem that DL has been having which has been filing flights with equipment type codes that OAG doesn't recognize.

In terms of taking effect, it goes both ways. These are all the changes since last week in OAG. So, it is possible that it is an error that has already been fixed internally, but hasn't been fixed with OAG. It is Kayak doesn't use OAG for schedules and thus has no error, but it is possible it is correct and that it simply hasn't filtered into systems yet.

Having said all of that, if the flight is sellable on ua.com with inventory available to reserve then it is most likely an equipment type related error in UA's filing.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 20):
You'll note that UA is still flying HSV-IAH which is one route that is strong.

Regardless of whether this is an error, I would agree that HSV-IAH is their best HSV route plus the space traffic.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 20):
I would say yes. UA is a weak player in most of the Southeast, however this was true even before the mergers.

But before you had all four players in HSV with weak networks. DL was best but could only take you East/South (but you can easily backhaul over ATL to the West) and North, UA could only take you to NE and West, AA could only take you West, and US could only take you East/South. Now DL and AA/US have a clear network advantage.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 20):
Many Southern markets (PNS, MOB, VPS, GPT) have only service to the West, but UA manages to survive ok.

I disagree on the comparison. Those markets can backhaul to the East over IAH. It's not going to happen on HSV-IAH-*

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 21):
How many domestic points has JFK lost in the last month or two?

It's hard to say because DL keeps reshuffling the deck there. Stuff that had gone came back, but I think they have cut about 5-6 domestic markets as of this moment.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 4:44 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
That's a lot of frequency
*DL BOS-CMH MAR 1.6>3 APR 1.5>3 MAY 1.6>3 JUN 1.7>3 JUL 1.6>3 AUG 1.5>3 SEP 1.6>3
Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 1):

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL BOS-CMH MAR 1.6>3 APR 1.5>3 MAY 1.6>3 JUN 1.7>3 JUL 1.6>3 AUG 1.5>3 SEP 1.6>3

Isn't this a reversal of a previous decrease?

Yes, this is what Delta flew of last summer. I know, because that's what I spent my summer doing. 3 daily flights on an ERJ135/145.

From Boston, the flights departed around 9AM, 2/3PM and 7-8AM

From Columbus, the flights departed around 6AM, 10/11AM and 5PM.

I flew a variety of flights on a variety of different days and they were frequently full with fares typically above $700.

There was a fair amount of LHR/CDG/AMS connecting traffic on the CMH - BOS leg. More than I would have thought.
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 4:46 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 9):
Doesn't DL have ORF-BOS?

No DL doesn't have ORF direct flight. For that matter no airline flies nonstop from BOS - ORF.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 4:46 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 28):
Those markets can backhaul to the East over IAH. It's not going to happen on HSV-IAH-*

The backhaul distances are similar.

VPS-IAH-LGA = 1,945 miles
HSV-IAH-LGA = 2,011 miles

Granted, I don't think that's the kind of traffic flow UA is targeting. There's enough traffic from the West (particularly the big Texas markets) to fill some RJ's to places like HSV (and PNS, VPS, MOB, etc). Any backhaul traffic is just to fill a few extra seats, but not particularly profitable.

Quoting enilria (Reply 28):
Now DL and AA/US have a clear network advantage.

But UA could have all that as well (IAD for East, ORD for North/West, IAH for West). The problem is just that many of UA's hubs are inferior (IAD) or very competitive (ORD).
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 5:34 pm

Quoting kcrwflyer (Reply 19):
Quoting jetblastdubai (Reply 12):Not sure about anyone else but domestically, what good is a single trip per day in any market? The chances of that single daily flight schedule working for anyone except the purely leisure traveler has to be slim.
It happens all the time. It's not a big deal. 2 is better, but 1 happens plenty. Not every market can support 2. There are 3 routes from my airport that only have 1 flight per day.

My airport also has several routes that are served once daily at various times of the year. One daily can work out fine, especially when the airline has additional flights to another hub that can serve many of the same connections. Those of us who live in small cities understand that most of our trips, whether for business or leisure, will require at least one connection. We also know that if our destination is also a smaller airport that there will be very few options available (I know--I had to figure out routes like BZN-ITH and BZN-CMI last year). The airlines also know that many or most of their passengers originating at smaller stations probably will be connecting beyond the hub. (The DL ticket agents at BZN have been shocked each time that I've tagged a bag to SLC with no onward connection.) Small cities rarely have a single destination city that can support pure O/D traffic except under the G4 model. So they offer a set of flights to various hubs that will hopefully maximize connecting opportunities. In this example, perhaps somebody is traveling HSV-PDX on business. They can choose whether to connect over IAH or DEN in each direction based on timing. The single frequency to DEN isn't a problem--the person flying is probably excited that the option even exists!

[Edited 2015-01-05 09:37:41]

[Edited 2015-01-05 09:41:34]
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 5:41 pm

Quoting iyerhari (Reply 30):
No DL doesn't have ORF direct flight. For that matter no airline flies nonstop from BOS - ORF.

They dropped it in FEB I see. Wow, amazing that is unserved.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 31):
The backhaul distances are similar.

VPS-IAH-LGA = 1,945 miles
HSV-IAH-LGA = 2,011 miles

Perhaps they are, but I still say HSV has enough Eastern service to negate the likelihood of that happening. VPS doesn't.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 31):
The problem is just that many of UA's hubs are inferior (IAD)

True dat
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 5:44 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 33):
hey dropped it in FEB I see. Wow, amazing that is unserved.

Well the market via PHF was served for a bit this summer - too bad it was PEX serving it and not B6. I wonder if AA/US would throw a couple spare lawn dart or E170's at Hampton Roads. B6 seems to be in love with RIC too.
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 5:45 pm

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 3):
I think UA's general weakness in the south combined with some cuts to defense spending (particularly travel budgets) have taken their toll on HSV. Keep in mind, both these routes are competitive as AA also flies HSV-ORD and AA flies HSV-DCA. I'm guessing UA decided those markets weren't big enough to compete for with AA.
Quoting AVLAirlineFreq (Reply 5):
So UA in HSV is down to only IAH? Wow.
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Wow, this route has been flown forever.
*UA IAD-HSV APR 0.9>0.2 MAY 1.4>0 JUN 1.6>0 JUL 1.6>0 AUG 1.5>0 SEP 1.6>0

It's more of a surprise to me that DEN-HSV still exists. When we were moving from Huntsville to Colorado in 1993, We flew United (BHM)-HSV-ORD-DEN (we drove from Huntsville to BHM to save money, not knowing the plane stopped in HSV anyway    ), then UA dropped that route and didn't fly to HSV at all for years. In fact, I think CO started the IAH-HSV route before UA reentered HSV from anywhere. With Defense, IAD always made sense to me, and ORD because of Geography and Size, but I never understood how DEN made money. Now it is practically all that is left!
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 5:56 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 4):
Many people, I think, haven't really stopped to think about how strong AA now is in the southeast. It has strong hubs for passengers going east/intra-southeast (CLT), south (MIA), west (DFW) and north (ORD).

Indeed. The "new AA" is quite a competitive force in the U.S. southeast with a comprehensive hub structure offering ample connectivity in virtually every direction. The only "missing link," if there is one, seems to me to be a bit more nonstop connectivity to ORD - from markets like GSP, CHS, SAV, etc. - but this may just not make much sense with United in the markets and the huge CLT hub so close by.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 6):
This is pretty absurd, WN probably has more capacity on PHL-MDW than UA does on PHL-ORD.

Meh. I think both United and AA at ORD have been far more focused in recent years - smartly, in my opinion - on schedule presence and frequency than capacity per se at ORD. Six daily flights in this market is certainly way down from the zenith of 1999-2000, but I don't think it's completely unworkable given that it is, after all, quite a competitive route.

Quoting enilria (Reply 9):
This really shows how the mergers have caused a previously viable carrier like UA to be essentially forced out because they have no Southeast hub. I'd call that ominous and it is another example of why this last round of mergers was a mistake. You now have super-powerful Delta and AA/US gaining power owning the Southeast to all directions. I wonder if we will see other dominoes fall?

I find that extremely alarmist. Airlines have all had regions of strength and weakness since long before the mergers - mergers may have amplified this effect somewhat, but I don't think that alone invalidates the benefits of consolidation.

Quoting jetblastdubai (Reply 12):
Not sure about anyone else but domestically, what good is a single trip per day in any market? The chances of that single daily flight schedule working for anyone except the purely leisure traveler has to be slim.

Not necessarily - a single daily flight, if timed appropriately to meet hub peaks/banks, can be perfectly viable.

Quoting jetblastdubai (Reply 12):
Is it worth keeping a station open for only 4 daily regional flights? (3 on weekends)

There are lots of stations kept open by United and other airlines with 4, or even fewer, daily RJ flights. Will this be viable going forward in the future? We'll see. But it doesn't seem that unthinkable.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 20):
Plus, cuts to defense spending and UA's overall weakness at IAD haven't helped.

  

Plus, as already mentioned, the fact that what government-driven traffic there is likely also finds AA's competing DCA nonstops attractive also doesn't help.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 20):
Lots of markets survive that way, though it's not ideal. Many Southern markets (PNS, MOB, VPS, GPT) have only service to the West, but UA manages to survive ok.

Given the strength of the IAH hub, UA can probably make it work.

  

Even with - hypothetically - just a nonstop link to IAH, I think United would still be able to make HSV work.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 20):
PNS-DFW goes from 5x ERJ to 3xMD80, 1xCR7, 1xERJ

Wow - 3x daily mainline. I don't thinks route has seen 3x daily mainline for several decades.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 6:05 pm

Quoting cosyr (Reply 35):
but I never understood how DEN made money.

if HSV is defense heavy, is there any traffic like SAN-DEN-HSV or COS-DEN-HSV ?
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 6:08 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 36):
The only "missing link," if there is one, seems to me to be a bit more nonstop connectivity to ORD - from markets like GSP, CHS, SAV, etc. - but this may just not make much sense with United in the markets and the huge CLT hub so close by.

Large RJs/cross-fleeting may help this some. Chicago and Charleston are both lovely places, but ORD-CHS wasn't a good place for 1 of 25 CR7s.

Quoting commavia (Reply 36):
I find that extremely alarmist. Airlines have all had regions of strength and weakness since long before the mergers - mergers may have amplified this effect somewhat, but I don't think that alone invalidates the benefits of consolidation.

For me, the ability to fly a single legacy on most itineraries (not to mention doing things like avoiding ORD in the winter while doing so) is an enormous benefit. And while the total fare paid won't measure this, having more status (from increased use of a single carrier) has very real monetary benefits as far as productivity and IROPPS protection.
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 6:26 pm

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 34):
AA/US would throw a couple spare lawn dart

I keep saying that those lawn darts (hehe) should be a lot more economical now with cheap oil. This is a classic example of a route that should be back on the board.

Quoting cosyr (Reply 35):
It's more of a surprise to me that DEN-HSV still exists.

Agreed

Quoting commavia (Reply 36):
I find that extremely alarmist. Airlines have all had regions of strength and weakness since long before the mergers - mergers may have amplified this effect somewhat, but I don't think that alone invalidates the benefits of consolidation.

Perhaps, but the SE is a big deal. It isn't the Great Plains. The SE is too much of the country's economy to not have a competitive network.

Again, you are 100% correct that airlines have always had regions of strength and weakness, but now we have 3 legacy airlines. The question is that if we have two that are superower-powerful in a region, can 3rd survive in that region to markets like HSV?

Quoting commavia (Reply 36):
Even with - hypothetically - just a nonstop link to IAH, I think United would still be able to make HSV work.

Assuming this isn't an error, the answer is really based upon the point of sale mix of the market. If HSV to the West is mostly point-of-sale HSV then NO they will be forced out. if the market is largely Western USA point of sale then they will do fine. If it is 50-50 they will be disadvantaged vs AA/DL, but perhaps not enough to be forced out. It also depends how much of the market is local to/from Houston because if the local market is half the capacity they will definitely be fine, although you would have thought the same would be true of ORD.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 38):
For me, the ability to fly a single legacy on most itineraries (not to mention doing things like avoiding ORD in the winter while doing so) is an enormous benefit. And while the total fare paid won't measure this, having more status (from increased use of a single carrier) has very real monetary benefits as far as productivity and IROPPS protection.

Actually you can mathematically plot out with a very high R squared (97+) how much better or worse an airline should do in a point of sale based upon the quality of their schedule (elapsed time and superior aircraft types) to the top markets vs the other carriers. Whichever carrier has the best overall mixture to the top markets will over-perform across the board and the carrier with the narrowest product will underperform across the board in the point of sale. Sometimes there is a lag effect for this to fully take place and the slow merger of AA/US means that we are probably 5 years from seeing the full impact of this.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 6:29 pm

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 24):
I wouldn't be surprised if HSV was a case of the airlines pricing themselves right out of a market. If they lowered fares to even a reasonable level they'd have no problem filling a few RJs.

Maybe you missed it but more RJs - at least of the 50-seater and smaller variety - isn't the plan of DL/UA/AA (or WN, AS, B6, F9, or Spirit, or Allegiant, or anybody else big enough to matter in the U.S. domestic market). Lots of route changes will test prospective travelers' willingness to pay or to drive to a decent-sized airport with lower fares. HSV ranks 117th among U.S. airports in passenger counts, with BNA (10x the passengers) and BHM (2.5x) close enough to be worthy of consideration.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 6:34 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 36):
Indeed. The "new AA" is quite a competitive force in the U.S. southeast with a comprehensive hub structure offering ample connectivity in virtually every direction. The only "missing link," if there is one, seems to me to be a bit more nonstop connectivity to ORD - from markets like GSP, CHS, SAV, etc. - but this may just not make much sense with United in the markets and the huge CLT hub so close by.

There are also a few remaining opportunities for US/AA to connect some additional SE markets to MIA, particularly if US/AA begins to move Latin American and Caribbean flights out of CLT, as has been speculated on here for the last year (other than the larger markets such as CUN and SJU). Of course, the drawdown of 50-seaters may dim those prospects.

[Edited 2015-01-05 10:35:06]
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 6:41 pm

DL JFK

They havent really cut anything

Keep reshuffling

RSW and PBI havent been flown in a while from JFK. Didnt know they even restarted it

As for ORF has to be a mistake. It has been flown since the days of the J41 on trans states
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 6:56 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 39):

Perhaps, but the SE is a big deal. It isn't the Great Plains. The SE is too much of the country's economy to not have a competitive network.

The SE is filled with low paying manufacturing and blue-collar jobs. It has rather low GDP per capita (the ones comparable are the farming states in the plains). The SE also has a long collection of failed or shuttered hubs like RDU BNA MEM GSP, and very few cities of size (if you exclude Florida, ATL and CLT are the only 2 metros within the top 30 primary stat areas)

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_primary_statistical_areas_of_the_United_States

Even if UA wants to open a SE hub tomorrow, there's no where to place it at. RDU is #34 (very strong AA with DL trying to make a focus city out of it) and BNA is #35 (strong WN). Currently the smallest metro with a hub is CVG (and that's already struggling to maintain its hub status) at #32.

On the flip side, UA having 2 hubs in the richest state in the nation (by total GDP) more than compensates that.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 7:00 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 43):
The SE also has a long collection of failed or shuttered hubs like RDU BNA MEM GSP, and very few cities of size (if you exclude Florida, ATL and CLT are the only 2 metros within the top 30 primary stat areas)

Why would you exclude Florida from the computations unless you are trying to justify UA's lack of network coverage?
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 7:04 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 44):
Why would you exclude Florida from the computations unless you are trying to justify UA's lack of network coverage?

Because Florida is a backhaul for any domestic connections and therefore doesn't help you in places like BHM, HSV, CHS, GSO etc etc.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 7:11 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 37):
if HSV is defense heavy, is there any traffic like SAN-DEN-HSV or COS-DEN-HSV ?

It's mostly Army (Redstone Arsenal), but they moved a school to Ft. Lee, VA, which took a sizable hunk of traffic with it.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 7:15 pm

Quoting RDH3E (Reply 45):
Because Florida is a backhaul for any domestic connections and therefore doesn't help you in places like BHM, HSV, CHS, GSO etc etc.

Of course. But that has nothing to do with his point, which seems to be that UA the southeast is not an important enough region to garner interest from UA. It's not like UA is strong in Florida; if anything, they are weaker there than in somewhere like MEM or the Carolinas.
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 7:17 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 43):
The SE is filled with low paying manufacturing and blue-collar jobs.
Quoting enilria (Reply 39):
Perhaps, but the SE is a big deal.

The "southeast hub" is such a silly discussion. UA and CO have long had above average industry SLA RASM--no southeast hub. DL has only recently pulled up *to* the industry SLA RASM average, and they've had the same alpha and omega of Southeast hubs all along. US has a great Southeast hub, and their RASM is at the bottom of the barrel. AA used to have the industry leading RASM and lost it all over the last decade or two--and I can't imagine it's because BNA/RDU were pulled down. Unless this mythical SE hub reduces costs, I'm not sure what benefit some airlines are missing out on without a major SE presence that isn't balanced by some dominance elsewhere.
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RE: OAG Changes 1/9/2015: DL/UA HSV-IAD/ORD Out?

Mon Jan 05, 2015 7:24 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 43):
The SE is filled with low paying manufacturing and blue-collar jobs. It has rather low GDP per capita (the ones comparable are the farming states in the plains). The SE also has a long collection of failed or shuttered hubs like RDU BNA MEM GSP, and very few cities of size (if you exclude Florida, ATL and CLT are the only 2 metros within the top 30 primary stat areas)

Yes. Indeed, even as I write this (on an actual computer, mind you), I'm not even wearing shoes.  

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