MavyWavyATR
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A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 3:25 am

I was researching the order books for both the A320neo and 737 Max and I was quite surprised to see that the neo is outselling it's competitor in total firm orders.

A320neo: 3444
737 Max: 2663

Source: http://www.pdxlight.com/neomax.htm

Can someone please explain why that is?
 
29erUSA187
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 3:53 am

There is a host of reasons, and this has been discussed at length in other threads, but it boils down to a few main things in the end

1) The NEO is a few months older, therefore it has had more time to collect orders
2) The A321NEO is a huge success, while the 737MAX9, its competitor, is underpowered and inferior to the A321NEO. If Boeing alters the design (they won't) we could see some new orders
3) Lots of potential MAX customers haven't ordered yet. (Ie. I suspect WN will order 400+ 737MAX7's, to replace the current 73G
 
phxa340
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 3:53 am

1. Earlier Availability (earlier EIS)
2. A321 superiority over the 737-9
3. Hell of a sales team at Airbus that are able to do some creative things to win RFPs
 
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larshjort
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 3:54 am

The A320NEO has a head start + it has PW Geared Turbofans as an option which the Max does not have.

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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 3:58 am

A321NEO has blasted the 739Max clear out of the water... and that's not likely to change any time soon, as the fundamental reasons that have caused it, are still in place.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
BestWestern
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 4:18 am

What are the chances of Southwest ordering the seemingly more capable Airbus?

(I know a certain percentage of of fanbois will scream zero, but my answer to that is UA 350 and AA 321)
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Stitch
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 4:27 am

Quoting bestwestern (Reply 5):
What are the chances of Southwest ordering the seemingly more capable Airbus?

None - the 737 has more than enough capability for them so the conversion costs would not pan out.

[Edited 2015-01-10 20:30:20]
 
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 5:58 am

2) The A321NEO is a huge success

This may be the best plane to replace the 757. (the best aircraft so far anyway). I expect a lot more orders.
Why endure the nightmare and congestion of LAX when BUR, LGB, ONT & SNA is so much easier to fly in and out of. Same with OAK & SJC when it comes to SFO.
 
zkncj
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 6:07 am

Basically comes down to that the A320NEO Family is an much never airframe, it was design in the 80s. Where as the 737 was design back in the 60s, while its had some design changes the main airframe is still the same.

The NEO is much more passenger friendly, its able to offer an 18" wide passenger. On the 321 its able to offer dual boarding though 1/2L. Also it has the added ability to take cargo cans, which speeds up loading/unloading bags and allows the airline to use less staff unloading that an bulk hold.
 
zkncj
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 6:10 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 6):
None - the 737 has more than enough capability for them so the conversion costs would not pan out.

Not to say that airbus wouldn't offer an deal? surely for 400 A320NEOs they would be willing to pay for conversion costs to the 320NEO family
 
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Boeing778X
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 6:21 am

Quoting 29erUSA187 (Reply 1):
1) The NEO is a few months older, therefore it has had more time to collect orders
2) The A321NEO is a huge success, while the 737MAX9, its competitor, is underpowered and inferior to the A321NEO. If Boeing alters the design (they won't) we could see some new orders
3) Lots of potential MAX customers haven't ordered yet. (Ie. I suspect WN will order 400+ 737MAX7's, to replace the current 73G

This is some of the answers, and I think the fact that Airbus' sales and marketing dept. is just so aggressive, they've just been selling like hotcakes.

I think, perhaps, the MAX 7 will sell well, especially if WN does like them and order more, but as it currently stands, the MAX 9 is in trouble. The A321neoLR will undermine it further, I fear.

But both the MAX and NEO are selling extremely well, nevertheless. The best from both families, the 737 MAX 8 and A321neo, make great complementary aircraft.
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 6:39 am

Weight will make quite a difference on short missions. Historically, the A320 has been marginally heavier than the 737, but this was due to the heavier engine, whose higher bypass ratio will give a fuel burn advantage on long sectors.


http://i.imgur.com/j8z9nPq.jpg
The difference could of course change before EIS.

and yes, it is a slide from Airbus.

Quoting Larshjort (Reply 3):
The A320NEO has a head start + it has PW Geared Turbofans as an option which the Max does not have.

   The whole point of putting new engines on the narrowbodies was to reap the benefits of the revolutionary GTF. Unfortunately, the MAX isn't even going to have this.
First to fly the 787-9
 
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 6:47 am

Boeing had to work much harder to make the 737MAX competitive; they gained more weight than the A320NEO. Nevertheless, I gather that the 738MAX has a slight advantage over the A320NEO, but as others have said, the A321NEO blows the 739MAX out of the water. And the other factor that I think may be significant (and if it is not now, it almost certainly will be in the future) is that the A320NEO offers the GTF, while the 737MAX does not.
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777ER
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 6:55 am

Quoting zkncj (Reply 8):
Basically comes down to that the A320NEO Family is an much never airframe, it was design in the 80s. Where as the 737 was design back in the 60s, while its had some design changes the main airframe is still the same.

I'm sorry but that is the best and biggest laugh I've had for ages! Age doesn't have any factors here even though Airbus like to believe it does. If age is a major factor here then why do airlines still order the 737?

As others have already (and is a fact) pointed out, the NEO was offered on December 1st 2010 while the 737MAX was offered August 30th 2011. The A320NEO had a 20 month head start.

If you look at total orders compared to total months on offer, the 737MAX is beating the A320NEO in terms of sales over total length of time on sale.

As at November 30th 2014 the 737MAX had 2553 orders over all models while the 320NEO over all models had 3362 orders.
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 7:31 am

Quoting 777ER (Reply 13):
As others have already (and is a fact) pointed out, the NEO was offered on December 1st 2010 while the 737MAX was offered August 30th 2011. The A320NEO had a 20 month head start.

I was never good at math but isn't that just 9 Months?
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 8:15 am

I can't understand why the fanboys aren't focused on the fact that the 737MAX has sold thousands. Isn't that fantastic enough for you, Boeing and the industry?

Why is it necessary to compare, get jealous and then suddenly think that all those thousands of sales are somehow a negative reflection on how Boeing is doing? Why must the 'my daddy is bigger than you daddy' argument get pedalled out so often. Why not be happy and don't sweat the small stuff?

Why cant we all just get along, you know, for the children, err I mean the love of aeroplanes!  
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deltal1011man
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 8:21 am

Quoting bestwestern (Reply 5):
but my answer to that is UA 350

huh? why is a large A32X operator buying the 350 a big deal?

Quoting bestwestern (Reply 5):
What are the chances of Southwest ordering the seemingly more capable Airbus?

More capable how? the 321NEO is better than the 739MAX for sure, problem is Southwest isn't looking for an aircraft that size right now. the 738MAX is arguable a tad bit better than the 320NEO and I believe the 319NEO and the 73GMAX are about the same (slight edge to the 319?).

So with that said I am not sure it would be worth it for WN to add an extra fleet type when the 737-7/8MAX will fit their needs just fine. (and of course they already have MAX on order and had a big say in the program.)

Quoting zkncj (Reply 9):
Not to say that airbus wouldn't offer an deal? surely for 400 A320NEOs they would be willing to pay for conversion costs to the 320NEO family

I am not sure that would even work. No matter how you slice it WN would have to add another type. I know that isn't something WN is completely against (looked at keeping the 717 around) but I really don't see the point for them (or a carrier like AS) to move over to the 320. Both have MAX on order already.


I would say I didn't expect AC to jump to the 737 but they didn't have an A320 or NEOs on order when they made the MAX order. Wouldn't be apples to apples.
 
astuteman
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 8:25 am

Quoting 777ER (Reply 13):
As others have already (and is a fact) pointed out, the NEO was offered on December 1st 2010 while the 737MAX was offered August 30th 2011. The A320NEO had a 20 month head start

Can I suggest pausing for reflection before jumping in with bias on full gain.....
The difference is 8 months not 20

Quoting 777ER (Reply 13):
If you look at total orders compared to total months on offer, the 737MAX is beating the A320NEO in terms of sales over total length of time on sale.

No. it isn't.

Quoting MavyWavyATR (Thread starter):
Can someone please explain why that is?

Can I suggest a good read of this thread ....

Will Airbus Have An Answer To The 737 Max8 (by nema Jan 3 2015 in Civil Aviation)

There's some good discussion in there, which has sort of been summarised on this thread

Let's put some numbers in to try to avoid any misrepresentation
The NEO has been on sale for 49 months and gained 3444 net orders (although we still await Airbus's December figures)
That's 70.2 orders per month.

The MAX has been on sale for 41 months and gained 2663 net orders
That's 65.0 orders per month.

So overall the NEO is indeed in the lead on a time-related basis

The picture for the models below that looks like this (I'll ignore the 737-7 and A319NEO as they're only about 50 frames each)

A320NEO - 2649 orders in 49 months = 54.0 frames per month
737-8 MAX - 2386 orders in 41 months = 58.2 frames per month.
The 737-8 MAX actually has a slight edge here (and that edge went up in the 5 days since the thread I linked)

A321NEO - 746 orders in 49 months = 15.2 frames per month
737-9 MAX - 217 orders in 41 months = 5.2 frames per month
The A321NEO has been outselling the 737-9 MAX by a factor of 3 on a time-related basis.

As people have said, the predominant reason for the NEO advantage is the way the A321NEO has taken dominance at the top end.

As an observation, 100 of the 217 737-9 MAX orders are with UA.

Another observation would be that I'm sure many of these large orders will contain clauses allowing conversion from 1 model in the range to another.

The A321 CEO still has 550 frames in backlog, so Airbus still have 1300 A321's on order yet to be built.
The A321 seems to be a plane that is coming into its time ..

Rgds
 
migair54
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 8:28 am

Quoting zkncj (Reply 9):
Not to say that airbus wouldn't offer an deal? surely for 400 A320NEOs they would be willing to pay for conversion costs to the 320NEO family

And many more advantages,

Quoting bestwestern (Reply 5):
What are the chances of Southwest ordering the seemingly more capable Airbus?

(I know a certain percentage of of fanbois will scream zero, but my answer to that is UA 350 and AA 321)
Quoting Stitch (Reply 6):
None - the 737 has more than enough capability for them so the conversion costs would not pan out.

Zero and none????.... I'm sure Southwest will evaluate carefully both of them, with 662 planes in the fleet a small difference could means millions of dollars at the end of the month. So never say never. Airlines very complicated business and everything has to be carefully monitored to make the airline work.

Quoting 29erUSA187 (Reply 1):
3) Lots of potential MAX customers haven't ordered yet. (Ie. I suspect WN will order 400+ 737MAX7's, to replace the current 73G

And this is a reason for Boeing and Airbus to keep pushing hard and get them, imagine if Airbus gets the Southwest order, or Boeing gets any other big A customer, we will have hours and hours of fun here   
 
captainmeeerkat
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 8:36 am

If you work it out on a per week basis of offering, Airbus has sold almost one more per week than Boeing since their respective launches. Not that much more and it proves that there is near equality in the market as usual.

A320NEO 01 December 2010-11 January 2015 - 214 weeks.....3444/214=16.1

B737MAX 30 August 2011 - 11 January 2015 - 175 weeks.....2663/175=15.2

(Numbers rounded down to nearest week)

I see astuteman has done something similiar!

EDIT: clever astuteman  Smile

[Edited 2015-01-11 00:38:24]
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solnabo
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:04 am

Quoting MavyWavyATR (Thread starter):
A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:09 am

The NG should have been the last 'warm up' of an ancient design.



Boeing should have stayed the course and developed an all new composite replacement for the 737 using the 787 as a template.


It would have blown the 'Neo' out of the water, but as it stands it's a far better aircraft than the cobbled together 'Max'
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:16 am

Quoting MavyWavyATR (Thread starter):
I was quite surprised to see that the neo is outselling it's competitor in total firm orders.

...is that a bad thing?
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chiad
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:30 am

Quoting MavyWavyATR (Thread starter):

I was researching the order books for both the A320neo and 737 Max and I was quite surprised to see that the neo is outselling it's competitor in total firm orders.

A320neo: 3444
737 Max: 2663

The NEO has a greater marked share, and I think when we get December totals for Airbus this will be even more clear.
But both programs are huge success'. I think it's important to underline that both the NEO and MAX have record backlogs, and both manufacture are considering investing for production up to 60 frames per month.
IMO it gets to a point of less importance of which program has the largest marked share when both programs are having problems to satisfy marked demand.
 
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seahawk
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:38 am

It is because the NEO was launched earlier. If you look at the sales since both are offered the MAX is leading by more than 10%.
 
sirtoby
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:42 am

Quoting 29erUSA187 (Reply 1):
3) Lots of potential MAX customers haven't ordered yet. (Ie. I suspect WN will order 400+ 737MAX7's, to replace the current 73G

Anyone moticed Southwest already ordered 200 737MAX (30x -7,170x -8)?
 
chiad
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:57 am

Quoting seahawk (Reply 25):

It is because the NEO was launched earlier. If you look at the sales since both are offered the MAX is leading by more than 10%.

NO!   

Without the important December totals from Airbus the NEO has an average day firm sales 2.30 vs MAX 2.10.
 
RIXrat
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:06 am

In the above thread everyone is showing his cards, and in my opinion, it is the clearest and most concise reflection of NEO and MAX orders. I think it should live as the poster child when anyone else broaches the subject. Neither A or B are going out of business.
 
captainmeeerkat
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:10 am

Quoting seahawk (Reply 25):

Please provide the calculations for your statement. I would be very interested to see them.
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Unflug
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:37 am

Quoting 777ER (Reply 13):

As others have already (and is a fact) pointed out, the NEO was offered on December 1st 2010 while the 737MAX was offered August 30th 2011. The A320NEO had a 20 month head start.

Interesting math  
Quoting seahawk (Reply 25):
It is because the NEO was launched earlier. If you look at the sales since both are offered the MAX is leading by more than 10%.

And apparently, the special math camp is even growing  
 
LTH
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:59 am

Quoting astuteman (Reply 17):
As an observation, 100 of the 217 737-9 MAX orders are with UA.

And we can be almost sure that another 50-100 737-9 MAX are going to Lion Air. (They have 201 737 MAX on order with no specific model breakdown of -8 and -9 models.)


UPDATE: Boeing has shared the current model breakdown with Leehamnews: http://leehamnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/123114-MAX-Totals.png

- 65 737-7 MAX
- 2312 737-8 MAX (includes 100 737MAX200)
- 286 737-9 MAX


So Boeing got some new -9 customers but still gets nowhere close to the A321neo.

Finally: as already mentioned: A lot of 737NG customers still haven't ordered (neos or) MAXs. Such as QF, JL, NH, AI, DL, KL, SK. Though we should keep in mind both Airbus and Boeing have been able to sell neos or MAX to customers that weren't 737NG or 320ceo operators before.


LTH
 
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 11:03 am

Quoting 777ER (Reply 13):

I'm sorry to tell you that age does in fact play a role. People's average size has increased over the past decades (weight and height to name a few). And the old design of the 737 means that this design would limit its ability to cater for people in the present time....
 
N1120A
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 11:25 am

Quoting 29erUSA187 (Reply 1):
3) Lots of potential MAX customers haven't ordered yet. (Ie. I suspect WN will order 400+ 737MAX7's, to replace the current 73G

WN definitely will order more than the 200 total (30 -7 and 170 -8) it has already ordered. Just to replace the 733s, they will probably end up with 200 or so -7s, and growth and replacement of older 73Ws will probably see another 100-200 -8s. And that is in the near term.

Quoting Larshjort (Reply 3):
The A320NEO has a head start + it has PW Geared Turbofans as an option which the Max does not have.

Yes, though the LeapX is hard to hate.

Quoting bestwestern (Reply 5):
What are the chances of Southwest ordering the seemingly more capable Airbus?

Only the A321NEO is more capable, and WN likely has no interest in that plane.

The chances are somewhere between slim and none, and slim isn't looking good.

Quoting bestwestern (Reply 5):
(I know a certain percentage of of fanbois will scream zero, but my answer to that is UA 350 and AA 321)

The UA A350s were ordered before the merger and as a result of leverage Airbus had as one of UA's biggest unsecured creditors in BK. They essentially replaced the A319/320s that were on order at UA, and UA is in need of an eventual 747 replacement. Now, I'd love if they ordered 748s, but that doesn't look like it will happen.

Quoting zkncj (Reply 8):
Basically comes down to that the A320NEO Family is an much never airframe, it was design in the 80s. Where as the 737 was design back in the 60s, while its had some design changes the main airframe is still the same.

That is a very old excuse. The reality is that the specific design of the 737 is optimized at the -8 size, while the A32S is optimized at the A321 size.

Quoting zkncj (Reply 8):

The NEO is much more passenger friendly, its able to offer an 18" wide passenger.

The cabin width claim is a non-starter. Airlines look squarely at costs. They could care less about giving less than an inch more room. In fact, many opt to have wider aisles instead. Truth be told, I think the BSI cabin, with the gigantic bins that take 4 more rollers than the largest bins Airbus offers, are more enticing to airlines looking to minimize gate check delays.

Quoting zkncj (Reply 8):
On the 321 its able to offer dual boarding though 1/2L.

And who, exactly, does that? AA on a select few flights? Maybe? The risks of damaging engines and wings doing L2 boarding really minimizes that use. Also, it certainly isn't dual boarding.

Quoting zkncj (Reply 8):
Also it has the added ability to take cargo cans, which speeds up loading/unloading bags and allows the airline to use less staff unloading that an bulk hold.

Not true. Manual bags actually is faster than containerized bags. Containers MAY reduce staff needed, but union contracts generally dictate that. OJIs are reduced with containers, but the lower comp premiums are not likely to off-set the fewer delays throwing bags on a 737 allows for.

Quoting zkncj (Reply 9):

Not to say that airbus wouldn't offer an deal? surely for 400 A320NEOs they would be willing to pay for conversion costs to the 320NEO family

You assume Southwest will take it.

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 10):

I think, perhaps, the MAX 7 will sell well, especially if WN does like them and order more, but as it currently stands, the MAX 9 is in trouble. The A321neoLR will undermine it further, I fear.

I'm assuming the MAX 7 will sell at least 200 frames to WN, just as an attrition bridge. Their average size will go up and -8s and -800s will eventually surpass -7s and -700s, but that is WAY off.

The MAX 9 definitely has a problem. It is hurt on the low end by the MAX-8-200, as sardine carriers will go for the costs. On the higher end, the A321NEO just destroys it for performance, and the -900ER already has some performance issues. Indeed, UA is going to have to think long and hard about the A321NEO joining the MAX9 in the fleet, or flying 757s and 788s that have been displaced to Hawai'i for a very long time.

Quoting ZKOJQ (Reply 11):

Nope, sorry. The 738 has always been heavier than the A320. Why? It is physically larger and holds more passengers. It has killed the A320 due to range, CASM and dispatch reliability. Now, the Airbus slide is cute, but they should tout the fact that the difference in weight has gone up (from about a ton to nearly a ton and a half). The A320 is the dog of that family. The A319 and 73W are very close. The A321 is, on balance, a better frame than the 739ER. The 73H absolutely destroys the A320 and is probably the best narrowbody currently produced by either maker. That probably doesn't change with the MAX and NEO, but that A321NEOLR has a chance to do some interesting things.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 16):
Quoting bestwestern (Reply 5):
but my answer to that is UA 350

huh? why is a large A32X operator buying the 350 a big deal?

Not to mention the fact that the A350s were ordered before the merger and can perform a mission that the 789 can't.

Quoting sirtoby (Reply 26):
Anyone moticed Southwest already ordered 200 737MAX (30x -7,170x -8)?

Yes, but that is not even close to be what they have when they are through.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 30):
I think the message that the A321NEO appears to be asserting a dominance is one that might stick.

The wing loading issue on the MAX9 is very real. Unless they can find a way to shave some weight off the 737, or deal with the wing in a way that keeps the same TC and reduces loading, there is no way the MAX9 competes outside a narrow niche of carriers that don't need performance and already have large 737 fleets.
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astuteman
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 11:30 am

Quoting LTH (Reply 32):
- 286 737-9 MAX

So Boeing got some new -9 customers but still gets nowhere close to the A321neo.
Quoting LTH (Reply 32):
And we can be almost sure that another 50-100 737-9 MAX are going to Lion Air

That might be the question and answer in one post.

PDXlite classifies all the Lionair orders as 737-8. The Boeing figure is 70 higher.

On those figures the splits look like:-

Overall figure doesn't change

A320NEO - 2649 orders in 49 months = 54.0 frames per month
737-8 MAX - 2312 orders in 41 months = 56.4 frames per month.

A321NEO - 746 orders in 49 months = 15.2 frames per month
737-9 MAX - 286 orders in 41 months = 7.0 frames per month

Rgds
 
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 11:32 am

The fun with fanboys (little pun there  ) is they cannot admit "defeat" or let's just say not enough charisma in any place. Some people cannot get over the fact that B is not No. 1 in ALL the fields and ALL the models. Airbus is always the underdog trying to score a sale here and there by giving away planes and having 28 countries that are swamping in financial meltdown giving subsidies for the A380neo. Not saying that the two companies are saints but oversimplification has its limits.

As the facts are now my estimation is as follows:
319neo Vs MAX7: Two models that would have sold greatly in the 90s and early 00s, but as time has shown most (if not the smashing majority) of airlines have gone for the immediately bigger sister because of mostly identical economics. The only place where they are needed is where they are airport constrained ( AV for hot and high is a good example).

320neo Vs MAX8: This could actually turn interesting in time although pure numbers show that the 320 has a small lead of about 300 orders ( info up to now) and that's not including the Indigo order. AV could go both ways so we ll see. Both planes are about equal. It remains to the airline to decide what is best for them

321neo Vs MAX9: a.k.a. The easiest kill. With only UA as the biggest blue chip customer and in significant number of frames ordered for the MAX9, the A321 has gotten pretty comfortable in its own skin and filled the niche that the 757 left, no matter what the Seattle team keeps saying. Airlines converting from the A320 to the A321 (most recently TK ) is actually one of the reasons the gap betwenn the A320 and MAX8 has shrunk. As I stated in another thread it is a bad sign when your CEO starts talking of a NSA to replace the MAX when metal for the MAX hasn't even been cut yet
 
RickNRoll
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 12:11 pm

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 16):
I am not sure that would even work. No matter how you slice it WN would have to add another type. I know that isn't something WN is completely against (looked at keeping the 717 around) but I really don't see the point for them (or a carrier like AS) to move over to the 320. Both have MAX on order already.

When you consider the fact that Boeing has actually had to hold back enhancements to the 737 cockpit due to WN demands so there is continuity in training and operation between newer and older models, I can't see WN ever buying Airbus.
 
Eagleboy
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 12:22 pm

Quoting zkncj (Reply 8):
Basically comes down to that the A320NEO Family is an much never airframe, it was design in the 80s. Where as the 737 was design back in the 60s, while its had some design changes the main airframe is still the same.

I think this is a big factor The MAX is really pushed the older design, whereas the neo is equivalent to the B737NG in that it is an upgraded version of a successful airframe.
Perhaps it is a sign that many legacy Bowing customers are now looking at the most effective aircraft for their needs (UA, AA?)
Perhaps some B737 operators are happy to stick with the B737-8/9 until Boeing give a firm indication of their B737 replacement...

But again lets compare the MAX orders with the current NEO order when the MAX is available for the same length of time.
 
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garpd
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 12:39 pm

Quoting Ab345 (Reply 36):

Quite a reasonable assessment you've made there and I think you're spot on.   
arpdesign.wordpress.com
 
LTH
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 1:01 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 35):
That might be the question and answer in one post.

PDXlite classifies all the Lionair orders as 737-8. The Boeing figure is 70 higher.

Oh, true. You might be correct about that. Didn't think about that correlation before posting.   


LTH

[Edited 2015-01-11 05:01:57]
 
bgm
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 1:06 pm

Quoting MavyWavyATR (Thread starter):
A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Perhaps (brace yoursef Boeing fanboys), it's because Airbus offer a better product? This is especially true with the A321NEO.
OK boomer.
 
travelhound
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 1:56 pm

To give a different perspective to the sales race:

71 customers have ordered the MAX where as 61 customers have ordered the NEO.

The average order size for the MAX is 37 aircraft where as the average order size for the NEO is 56 aircraft.

If we compare options, options represent 41% of sales for the MAX and 35% of sales for the NEO.

Once the Avianca order is announced Airbus will have secured (This is going to create some debate) the majority of its existing Airbus A320 customer base, whilst losing Air Canada and SilkAir to the MAX.

Excluding the Chinese carriers, Boeing still have quite a few (20) major existing 737 customers yet to decide on replacement narrow bodies. These customers currently operate just under 1000 737 aircraft.

Of these customers, six of them currently have dual A320/737 fleets (343 A32?'s).

As such there are quite a few sales campaigns where Boeing should have the advantage (existing customer).

If we look at the US majors:

United has ordered 100 MAX's to replace an existing fleet of 283 737's and 98 757's. United currently have 152 A32?'s in fleet.

American Airlines have orders for 337 aircraft to replace an existing fleet of 130 MD82/83's, 75 757's and 305 737's and A320's. Boeing and Airbus have equal orders of 100 each for the MAX and NEO.

Delta Airlines are still to order the MAX or NEO. They will have 182 MD88/90's and 122 757's (exc. international configured aircraft) to replace. The current generation 737 and A320's are relatively new.

If we compare quality of orders JL himself has already confirmed some regions (South East Asia) have double ordered. As such, some airlines will ultimately have to cancel or defer their NEO orders. This isn't a bad thing. We have to remember over the last ten years the Airbus A320 production line has been the more stable.

At a guess, Boeing can maintain (or close enough) their 50% market share of the narrow body market if they can maintain their existing customer base. I suspect the announced increased production rate of 52 aircraft per month in 2018 will be used to win some of the future sales campaigns. The risk for Boeing is if some of these major customers (like Pegasus) desert the fold for Airbus.

There is a real risk of this!
 
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JerseyFlyer
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 2:04 pm

Quoting N1120A (Reply 32):
The 73H absolutely destroys the A320

....which must explain why Airbus have sold so few A320s!!
 
atnight
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 2:19 pm

Pardon me, but it's just sad how all the Boeing fanboys cannot accept defeat... The MAX (regardless of model) has frame limitations that cannot make it as good as the NEO. Think about this, it only has one engine option (which is not the better of the two). Just that alone makes the model less competitive. I'm sorry to say because I like a 50/50, but Airbus will dominate in all variants, you all wait and see. Just because some here want to argue that by months offered the max-8 has sold more, that is meaningless when a difference of less than a year is accounted for since offering both. Wait at least for yearly totals to get into your silly "mine sold more if we count by months on the markets".. It's laughable such view. Just ridiculous argument if the overall sales figure favors the competition, for that is what matters to investors. And let me say again, as much as I love the 737s, Airbus will dominate the market, no ifs or buts. I'm not saying Boeing won't sell, of course it will and has, and will have 40 to 45% market share at best, but with Boeing only able to play catch up, it clearly means it has no way to overtake the NEO. I only hope that Boeing starts working by 2025 in a all new frame if they want to regain the lead.

A word of advice to see who sold more so far, please wait till the 13th..
B707 B727 B733/5/7/8/9 B742/4 B752/3 B763/4 B772 A310 A318/319/320 A332 A343 MD80 DC9/10 CRJ200 ERJ145 ERJ-170 Be1900 Da
 
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seahawk
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 2:29 pm

If one does disregard all orders in 2011, it is 2513 MAX vs. 2188 NEO - more than 10% ahead since launch.
 
StTim
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 2:33 pm

Disingenuous in the extreme to do that though.
 
atnight
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 2:35 pm

Quoting seahawk (Reply 43):

If one does disregard all orders in 2011, it is 2513 MAX vs. 2188 NEO - more than 10% ahead since launch.


This has to be sarcastic, or are you serious?

Now, just to keep things in perspective, would someone please post the totals in current gen frames sold by each model? I keep seeing posts that imply the major supremacy of the 737NG vs the A320..I am curious as to who wins in current gen.

[Edited 2015-01-11 06:45:55]
B707 B727 B733/5/7/8/9 B742/4 B752/3 B763/4 B772 A310 A318/319/320 A332 A343 MD80 DC9/10 CRJ200 ERJ145 ERJ-170 Be1900 Da
 
atnight
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 2:43 pm

Double post. Delete

[Edited 2015-01-11 06:44:07]
B707 B727 B733/5/7/8/9 B742/4 B752/3 B763/4 B772 A310 A318/319/320 A332 A343 MD80 DC9/10 CRJ200 ERJ145 ERJ-170 Be1900 Da
 
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Stitch
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 2:50 pm

Quoting atnight (Reply 42):
And let me say again, as much as I love the 737s, Airbus will dominate the market, no ifs or buts. I'm not saying Boeing won't sell, of course it will and has, and will have 40 to 45% market share at best, but with Boeing only able to play catch up, it clearly means it has no way to overtake the NEO.

And yet Boeing, at least for the moment, is planning a higher 737MAX monthly production rate than Airbus is planning an A320neo monthly production rate.

Now, Boeing could just be suffering from the same "delusions" as their "fanboys" are and they'll end up with a lot of whitetails parked around Renton and Boeing Field or, as travelhound suggested in Reply 40, they're analysis of future RFPs - and discussions with those customers about said RFPs - could indicate that towards the end of the decade the order book for both models could be a fair bit closer than it is at the moment and such a production rate will be warranted to meet Boeing's share of the market on a percentage basis.



Quoting atnight (Reply 45):
I keep seeing posts that imply the major supremacy of the 737NG vs the A320. I am curious as to who wins in current gen.

Through December 31, 2014 Boeing has recorded 6854 orders for 737NG family airframes including BBJs and military platforms.

According to their website, through November 30, 2014, Airbus has recorded 11163 orders for A320 family airframes. I assume this includes VIP and military airframes, as well.

[Edited 2015-01-11 06:57:50]
 
na
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 2:52 pm

I think also that some airlines start to think that the 737 is an old plane. Its older than the 747, and if anyone thinks the 747 is an old design, then he must say the 737 is a very old one! No matter how often it has been cooked over.
After the 77X, Boeing will start a clean sheet design for its small plane. I heavily doubt that the MAX will have such a long career as the NG.
 
captainmeeerkat
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 3:12 pm

Quoting seahawk (Reply 43):
If one does disregard all orders in 2011, it is 2513 MAX vs. 2188 NEO - more than 10% ahead since launch.

              
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