flood
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 3:13 pm

Quoting travelhound (Reply 40):
71 customers have ordered the MAX where as 61 customers have ordered the NEO.

Boeing reported 55 customers at 2,562 orders and have only booked 3 new orders since then.

Quoting seahawk (Reply 43):
If one does disregard all orders in 2011, it is 2513 MAX vs. 2188 NEO - more than 10% ahead since launch.

Which really is just as nonsensical as "pretending EK doesn't exist" when discussing A380 sales.
 
chiad
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 3:15 pm

Quoting seahawk (Reply 43):
If one does disregard all orders in 2011, it is 2513 MAX vs. 2188 NEO - more than 10% ahead since launch.

Excuse me ... did you just shave 1300 orders off the NEO's backlog and slots?
You're just trolling ... right?
 
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enzo011
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 3:41 pm

Wait, wait, wait....if you want ignore orders that were done before a model was on sale then we have to go back to 1984 and only count orders from there, right? So to look at which aircraft is more popular (i.e. the best?) we should discount all Boeing 737 orders before the launch of the A320. That would only be fair if we discount all NEO orders before the MAX was on sale.

This article puts it nicely into perspective, although its numbers are already out of date since it is from September 2014.

http://leehamnews.com/2014/11/17/a320-v-737-the-sales-winner-is/


Edited: for clarification.

[Edited 2015-01-11 07:43:28]
 
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seahawk
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 3:43 pm

Quoting atnight (Reply 45):
This has to be sarcastic, or are you serious?

Certainly not serious. The only relevant numbers are the total orders gained so far and there the NEO still leads, although the gap has been closing recently, but it could open up again as well. 50:50 would be success for Boeing imho.
 
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speedbored
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 3:44 pm

Quoting seahawk (Reply 43):
If one does disregard all orders in 2011, it is 2513 MAX vs. 2188 NEO - more than 10% ahead since launch.

Or if one does disregard all orders in 2012, it is 1749 MAX vs. 2966 NEO - more than 40% behind.

Just goes to show how stupid this manipulating figures is, doesn't it?

Given that the two models were not launched at the same time, with the same planned EIS date, or production rates. it really is pointless trying to compare sales figures. It just ends up as "my manipulated number is bigger than yours".

Personally, I prefer to look at deliveries (i.e. how many are actually being bought), or backlog at planned production rates (i.e. how long customers are prepared to wait), as these give a far better indication of the relative popularity of the different types with airlines.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 47):
could indicate that towards the end of the decade the order book for both models could be a fair bit closer than it is at the moment and such a production rate will be warranted to meet Boeing's share of the market on a percentage basis.

It could also indicate that Boeing feel that they need to increase the rate in order to recapture lost market share via better availability.

I can't see Airbus allowing Boeing to take the production lead for long (if at all) without also increasing their rates, unless they feel the rates are becoming unsustainable.
 
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moo
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 4:03 pm

Quoting seahawk (Reply 43):
If one does disregard all orders in 2011, it is 2513 MAX vs. 2188 NEO - more than 10% ahead since launch

Why discount 2011? Its Boeings "fault" they had no competing product to sell in 2011, not Airbuses. So why does Airbus deserve to be crippled by having its decision to launch earlier than Boeing removed from the equation?
 
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Aesma
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 4:06 pm

For years before the neo even existed the A320 family was winning more and more orders against the 737, if anything the Max has slowed that momentum down.

Quoting 777ER (Reply 13):
I'm sorry but that is the best and biggest laugh I've had for ages! Age doesn't have any factors here even though Airbus like to believe it does. If age is a major factor here then why do airlines still order the 737?

The ultimate problem the 737 has is its short landing gear, and that comes directly from the fact that in the 60's, with low bypass turbofans, it wasn't short.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
boeing737max
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 4:09 pm

Quoting na (Reply 48):

Yes the 737 is from the 60s, but the plane that was flying then and the plane that's flying now (NG) is pretty much a different plane in so many ways. Then we have the MAX coming up that changes it even more. And I agree, I think the MAX wont be as long on the market as the NG 737s. Boeing will probably come up with a new aircraft to replace the 737, Id expect for it to look similar to a 787 but not in wide body form and obviously other differences.
 
mjoelnir
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 4:42 pm

Quoting N1120A (Reply 32):
Not true. Manual bags actually is faster than containerized bags. Containers MAY reduce staff needed, but union contracts generally dictate that. OJIs are reduced with containers, but the lower comp premiums are not likely to off-set the fewer delays throwing bags on a 737 allows for.

You do realize that there are other markets than the USA in regards to your union comment?
I would like to see manual bag loading being faster than loading containers.
 
CBUDAD
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 4:50 pm

Boeing really does need to replace the original 707 airframe and start fresh. Would you want to buy a 1950 Ford Galaxy
that's been facelifted and updated for the past 60 years. Of course airlines are flocking to the NEO. But Airbus has had irs
mis-steps lately as well. Plenty of criticism to allocate to both companies.
 
Chaostheory
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 4:57 pm

Quoting N1120A (Reply 32):
It has killed the A320 due to range, CASM and dispatch reliability.

I've never seen an airline choose the 737 over the A320 with technical dispatch reliability factored in. Industry TDR figures show that they're within .2% of each other.

I suppose you know better.
 
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Aesma
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 5:14 pm

Quoting N1120A (Reply 32):
That is a very old excuse. The reality is that the specific design of the 737 is optimized at the -8 size, while the A32S is optimized at the A321 size.

That's a very odd thing to say. The 738 size didn't even exist when the 737 was designed.

The A320 is Airbus' offering in the narrowbody market. It wasn't made by just looking at the 737 and trying to do better. In the 80's there were plenty other narrowbodies on the market, to boot.

The A321 was clearly not made as the main member of the family.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
phxa340
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 5:38 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 47):

Great to see some rational assessment in an otherwise irrational thread.
 
727LOVER
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 5:53 pm

Quoting MavyWavyATR (Thread starter):
and I was quite surprised to see that the neo is outselling it's competitor in total firm orders.

I'm curious...why is that surprising???  
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
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NWAROOSTER
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 6:07 pm

There are a couple of limitations with the Boeing 737 vs the Airbus A320 series of aircraft. The 737, any model, has a shorter landing gear which limits the diameter of any new more efficient engines or power plants due to ground clearance problems. Also, you can only stretch the fuselage of the 737 so much before the aircraft is in danger of scraping it's rear fuselage on the ground during take off. Then it has been mentioned here that Boeing has limited it's cockpit upgrades due to the fact that Southwest does not want their new orders of 737s to deviate from their existing fleet of 737s any more than necessary or mandated. Southwest is most likely Boeings largest buyer of the 737. I do not know if it is practical for Boeing to build a cockpit to Southwest's standards and another that has far more advancements for other operators and do so without a lot of extra work and expense to Boeing.
But the main problem with the 737 is that the landing gear is way to short and a new narrow body aircraft will need to be built. Airbus does not have that limitation with their A320 series of aircraft.
Until Boeing comes out with a new NSA aircraft, Airbus may be the leader of the sales of this type of aircraft.   

[Edited 2015-01-11 10:08:53]
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zkncj
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 6:10 pm

Quoting N1120A (Reply 32):
The cabin width claim is a non-starter. Airlines look squarely at costs. They could care less about giving less than an inch more room. In fact, many opt to have wider aisles instead. Truth be told, I think the BSI cabin, with the gigantic bins that take 4 more rollers than the largest bins Airbus offers, are more enticing to airlines looking to minimize gate check delays.

Outside of North America, are airlines that care about passenger comfort and use it as one of its main selling points. I regularly fly 3-4hour Intentional Flights on the 738 & A320, give me an A320 any day.

Outside of North America, cabin bags aren't an problem! Airlines have an 7kg limit also with an size limit that is enforced.
That is more of an airline problem, for not being able to effectively run an airline as an business and not an charity.

Quoting N1120A (Reply 32):
And who, exactly, does that? AA on a select few flights? Maybe? The risks of damaging engines and wings doing L2 boarding really minimizes that use. Also, it certainly isn't dual boarding.

All comes down to airline staff training.

Quoting N1120A (Reply 32):
Not true. Manual bags actually is faster than containerized bags. Containers MAY reduce staff needed, but union contracts generally dictate that. OJIs are reduced with containers, but the lower comp premiums are not likely to off-set the fewer delays throwing bags on a 737 allows for.

Air New Zealand constantly is able to turn around 171 Seat A320 is 20-25minutes, when they are pushed for time. They use can's with one person unloading the cans & another driving the trolleys. Now you couldn't do that with just two staff on an 739? the A320 still has an bulk hold for last minute items to be chucked in, but that comes down to the airline doing its job first are correctly checking over sized bags before people get to the boarding gate. Air New Zealand only closes there bag drop 30minutes before departure, so really you don't need that much time to prep cans. Also bulk loading an 737 in some countries is an Health & Safety issue, which becomes costly for an airline. Example in New Zealand any bag over 23kg must be lifted by to handlers.
 
cobra27
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 6:21 pm

So which is better, A320 or Boeing 737?

I used to think that duopoly is better than monopoly. But I think the industry would be much better with a third player. 737 in A320 are basically just reeengined planes that are already flying
 
flyabr
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 6:29 pm

Quoting seahawk (Reply 53):
50:50 would be success for Boeing imho.

I suspect that by the time either B or A get ready the next gen narrow body...the split will be more like 60:40 in favor of A.
 
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Boeing778X
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 6:32 pm

Quoting na (Reply 48):
After the 77X, Boeing will start a clean sheet design for its small plane. I heavily doubt that the MAX will have such a long career as the NG.

Unfortunately, you may be correct   Would it be reasonable to assume the NSA could have an EIS before 2030?
United Airlines: $#!ttin' On Everyone Since 1931
 
karadion
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 6:34 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 47):
Through December 31, 2014 Boeing has recorded 6854 orders for 737NG family airframes including BBJs and military platforms.

According to their website, through November 30, 2014, Airbus has recorded 11163 orders for A320 family airframes. I assume this includes VIP and military airframes, as well.

I'd say that's kind of an unfair comparison. Since 1988 when the A320 debut, Boeing logged 6822 deliveries whereas Airbus has has logged 6377 deliveries. Yes, that's to include classic's in the 737 family.

Since April 1988, I estimated that 737 family vs A320 family to be 11109 vs 11235 (both deliveries & orders so far).

To elaborate:
2014: 737 - 485 deliveries, A320 - estimated 492 deliveries.
That leaves 1624 NG on the backlog vs 1414 A320's on the backlog. The MAX backlog vs Neo backlog is 2663 vs 3444 if going by PDXLight. Deliveries since April 1988 is about 737 - 6822 vs A320 - 6377. So Airbus has a lead of half of a percent over Boeing in terms of deliveries and orders together.

[Edited 2015-01-11 10:35:49]
 
StTim
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 6:45 pm

That is also a little unfair. 1988 was when Airbus started delivering a brand new untried frame whilst Boeing had already delivered many 737's, had a robust supply chain, great relations with many airlines etc.


It is however very difficult to correct for those. I do know that around Europe I see more 320's these days than 737's. Do we know how many frames are currently active from both families?
 
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Revelation
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 7:31 pm

Quoting N1120A (Reply 32):
That is a very old excuse. The reality is that the specific design of the 737 is optimized at the -8 size, while the A32S is optimized at the A321 size.

That's an odd use of the word "optimized". I think the 737 is pretty much optimized for the -8 size and the A321 is better at its job than the 737-9 but I wouldn't say the A321 is optimized for its role. It could definitely use a wing that generated more lift at the same or less drag and had more space for fuel. People seem to forget that the "NG" was a huge makeover of the 737, pretty much on the same scale as the 777X program of today, and the Airbus narrow body has never had such a large scale makeover.
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EPA001
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 7:37 pm

Quoting Max Q (Reply 21):
The NG should have been the last 'warm up' of an ancient design.

I am not so sure. The MAX sells very good and will be an enormous cash cow to Boeing. The NSA would have been a much higher risk, and the customers told Boeing that they did not want to wait any longer for a competitive NB-aircraft. And as John Leahy already predicted also Boeing went "neo" and called it the MAX. And the sales give them right. The B737 will do very fine, though will not be the market leader. But is close enough (and the 738-MAX is arguably slightly better than the A320-neo) to virtually hold its position for quite some years to come.

Quoting seahawk (Reply 24):
It is because the NEO was launched earlier. If you look at the sales since both are offered the MAX is leading by more than 10%.

Incorrect. See below:

Quoting astuteman (Reply 17):
The picture for the models below that looks like this (I'll ignore the 737-7 and A319NEO as they're only about 50 frames each)

A320NEO - 2649 orders in 49 months = 54.0 frames per month
737-8 MAX - 2386 orders in 41 months = 58.2 frames per month.
The 737-8 MAX actually has a slight edge here (and that edge went up in the 5 days since the thread I linked)

A321NEO - 746 orders in 49 months = 15.2 frames per month
737-9 MAX - 217 orders in 41 months = 5.2 frames per month
The A321NEO has been outselling the 737-9 MAX by a factor of 3 on a time-related basis.

As people have said, the predominant reason for the NEO advantage is the way the A321NEO has taken dominance at the top end.

As an observation, 100 of the 217 737-9 MAX orders are with UA.

That is correct. And anybody can verify these numbers if they want to.  .

Quoting chiad (Reply 51):
Excuse me ... did you just shave 1300 orders off the NEO's backlog and slots?
You're just trolling ... right?

Looks that way.....
 
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DocLightning
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 7:38 pm

Quoting StTim (Reply 70):

That is also a little unfair. 1988 was when Airbus started delivering a brand new untried frame whilst Boeing had already delivered many 737's, had a robust supply chain, great relations with many airlines etc.

What Airbus did was they took a 733-sized plane and made it capable of US transcon flights. Initially, Boeing rested back on their laurels and figured that their 737-classic line was sufficiently competitive, but by the early 1990s it became clear that this was not the case. The UA and NW A320 orders came as rude awakenings. And so the 73G was brought to market.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 71):
People seem to forget that the "NG" was a huge makeover of the 737, pretty much on the same scale as the 777X program of today, and the Airbus narrow body has never had such a large scale makeover.

It doesn't need it. Oh, sure, the airfoil could probably be tweaked a little to improve L/D but the same thing can be done with wingtip devices. The A320 wing is really a marvel of efficiency. Any improvement would be pretty small for the expense it would generate.

In the NB market, Boeing kinda got stuck between a rock and a hard place. They knew it was too soon to introduce a new type, but they had to respond to Airbus somehow. To compete with the A321 effectively using existing designs, Boeing would have had to bring back the 757NG (and don't tell me how it can't be done. It *can* be done, although it won't be done). But that wouldn't be competitive because then they'd have to sell two types in the narrowbody market and Airbus only needs to sell one. Also, a 757NG would be probably way over-qualified for most of the routes it's intended to fly. If you installed new GTFs and a new wing on a 757NG, you'd probably get a 5500-6000nmi airframe. What airline wants that capability? Icelandair?

No, Boeing needs to face fact: the 737, like the 747, is at the limits of its design. It's time for something new. ALL-new.

[Edited 2015-01-11 11:44:19]
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karadion
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 7:41 pm

Quoting StTim (Reply 70):
Do we know how many frames are currently active from both families?

I don't have the numbers off hand for the A320 family. There's still a ton of 737 flying and not many have been scrapped. About 1375~ 737's have been scrapped/withdrawn which still leaves about 6675 737's in flying circulation (737, Classics, & NG's).

737 - 1310~ (910~ scrapped/withdrawn)
Classics - 1570~ (420~ scrapped/withdrawn)
NG - 5170~ (45~ scrapped/withdrawn)
 
roseflyer
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 8:33 pm

Lots of reasons have been given. Some are more impactful than others. A lot of the reasons posted aren't really that important in my opinion. I am not a complete expert but have seen the airplane purchase process up close. In my opinion, here are the reasons roughly in order for choosing one or the other.

1. Fuel burn per seat
2. Airplane acquisition cost
3. Airplane maintenance costs
4. Engine costs
5. Airplane range and capacity
6. Delivery slot availability
7. Financing costs
8. Airplane familiarity (does an airline already operate the type)
9. Runway performance and airport operations
10. Passenger and crew comfort

Each airline has its own requirements, but in my opinion, those are the factors that matter most. For each order those factors played a role. At some Airbus is better. At some boeing is better. There is no one airplane is superior to the other. In my opinion, someone that gives a two or three sentence answer for why the A320neo is outselling the 737max is showing more of their fanboy side and probably does not know much about how airlines actually make these decisions.

[Edited 2015-01-11 12:35:02]
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astuteman
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 8:37 pm

Quoting seahawk (Reply 43):
If one does disregard all orders in 2011, it is 2513 MAX vs. 2188 NEO - more than 10% ahead since launch.

NEO orders placed before launch are:-
Air Asia - 200
GoAir - 72
Indigo - 150
LAN - 20
SAS - 30
transasia - 6
GECAS - 60

total - 538

i.e. 2 906 NEO sales since the MAX was launched vs 2663 MAX sales.
that gives the NEO 52% of the market since the MAX launched.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 47):
And yet Boeing, at least for the moment, is planning a higher 737MAX monthly production rate than Airbus is planning an A320neo monthly production rate

for me though, the logic is a bit "back-to-front" here. Boeing's plans make sense given the size of the backlogs.
I think we've seen in the last few months Airbus have started to move for the bigger numbers, but their (relative) reticence to post huge increases whilst the CEO/NEO transition goes on is at odds with the backlog.

I don't buy that they think their backlog is more fragile than the MAX's.

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 62):
Great to see some rational assessment in an otherwise irrational thread.

Thanks very much for that.
I work very hard to offer an objective input into this thread.
And you've just labelled it irrational.
is that because you just don't like the messages my posts offer?
You could try telling me how I could be more objective, perhaps ...  
Quoting Karadion (Reply 69):
So Airbus has a lead of half of a percent over Boeing in terms of deliveries and orders together.

I think that's about right to be honest.......

But one of these players was established in the marketplace, and one didn't exist at the starting point.
That's a huge consideration to factor in IMO

I suspect if you time-slice the market you'll find that the A320 lagged to start with as it had to fight its way into the market.
It has clearly steadily gained traction since.
In the last 5 years it has outsold the 737 by 700 frames.... (5036 vs 4316)

Do you reckon this all sits easily with the team at Boeing?

Rgds
 
travelhound
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:06 pm

Quoting flood (Reply 50):
Boeing reported 55 customers at 2,562 orders and have only booked 3 new orders since then.

I have included undisclosed orders. This information comes from the pdx website.
 
flood
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:32 pm

Quoting travelhound (Reply 77):
I have included undisclosed orders. This information comes from the pdx website.

Right, but we don't know who the majority of those undisclosed customers are and how many of them hold multiple orders. A number of them evidently do, as Boeing's previously reported customer count of 55 includes undisclosed customers as well.
 
travelhound
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:38 pm

Quoting flood (Reply 78):
Right, but we don't know who the majority of those undisclosed customers are and how many of them hold multiple orders. A number of them evidently do, as Boeing's previously reported customer count of 55 includes undisclosed customers as well.

Fair enough.

I wasn't aware of the Boeing statement. It looks like some airlines have placed follow on orders.
 
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Stitch
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:43 pm

Quoting speedbored (Reply 54):
It could also indicate that Boeing feel that they need to increase the rate in order to recapture lost market share via better availability.

The end result is the same, regardless - a narrowing of the gap in marketshare.



Quoting Karadion (Reply 69):
I'd say that's kind of an unfair comparison.

It is what it is. The A320 entered service well before the 737NG so it has a larger delivery.

Now if the question was 737 family compared to A320 family...



Quoting astuteman (Reply 76):
I don't buy that they think their backlog is more fragile than the MAX's.

Never intended to give that impression. Airbus has more production time to deliver their backlog so they don't need to increase it to the level Boeing does.

And Airbus can increase their production rate if the backlog and delivery schedules make such a move a prudent one.
 
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CALTECH
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:50 pm

Meanwhile,...

You are here.
 
mjoelnir
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 80):
And Airbus can increase their production rate if the backlog and delivery schedules make such a move a prudent one.

Airbus is in the process of increasing the A320 series production rate. Mobile will come in with 4 a month, with a possibility of going to 8 a month later on. That alone would move the A320 production rate to 46 and possible 50 per month.
 
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speedbored
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:06 pm

Quoting travelhound (Reply 77):
I have included undisclosed orders. This information comes from the pdx website.

In your Boeing total, maybe. You appear to have "inadvertently" omitted the similar data from the Airbus total.

But the most glaring error seems to be your assumption that every "undisclosed" order is for a different customer.

In any case, I am sure that Boeing are aware of exactly who their "undisclosed" customers are, and include them in their published total. So why even bother trying to work it out yourself?
 
321neoLR
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:13 pm

One thing that is also in the mix,

Boeing have a great product line, their record speaks for itself. However I think the A321 which is more capable than the 737-9, could influence an airline.

There is also the eu influence for eu national carriers to convert to Airbus.

The long range A321 neo is an interesting move. On its own it is not a great sales machine, however, if an airline is using 757 on long range flights, that are on the fringes of an order, this new addition might sway their choice.

In relation to cockpit commanality, Airbus has the advantage. If you have an airline with a320 and a330, all pilots can fly both types with very minimal training. I don't think boeing have the same, although this will change in the future.

I don't think boeing or Airbus have to worry about deliveries drying up anytime soon.
 
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PW100
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:25 pm

Quoting N1120A (Reply 32):
That is a very old excuse. The reality is that the specific design of the 737 is optimized at the -8 size, while the A32S is optimized at the A321 size

Hmm, what does it say about the “optimized -8 MAX”, if it is unable to comfortably outsell the “not-so-optimized 320neo . . .   

Quoting N1120A (Reply 32):
The 738 has always been heavier than the A320. Why? It is physically larger and holds more passengers. It has killed the A320 due to

Last time I checked, the 320ceo seems pretty much alive, and even overbooked to the NEO transition. Does the use of the word “kill” make one a fanboy? Why can’t we just have a civilized discussion? Do we need blood in these discussions?

Quoting Eagleboy (Reply 36):
But again lets compare the MAX orders with the current NEO order when the MAX is available for the same length of time.

True, but of course that reasoning would only hold itself, if at the end-of-life of these frames, both have been in production for the same time. Which appears quite unlikely.

It also appears quite likely that Boeing will be first mover into NSA. Which would suggest that the NEO could outlive the MAX in terms of high-volume production. In case of which one could arrive at the conclusion that from today, the NEO will have a longer life than the MAX. In which case your proposed comparison is way off. Just speculation of course . . .

Quoting Stitch (Reply 47):
And yet Boeing, at least for the moment, is planning a higher 737MAX monthly production rate than Airbus is planning an A320neo monthly production rate

Is that a indicative to the future production volumes of A and B, or indicative of their public announcement strategy? I accept your qualification ”at least for the moment”. So would you think that Airbus has for some unspecified reason, somewhat less “eagerness” to announce 320 series production rate increases?
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
astuteman
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:28 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 80):
Never intended to give that impression. Airbus has more production time to deliver their backlog so they don't need to increase it to the level Boeing does.

Apologies if it looks like I thought you did. Airbus have held a delivery advantage for close on a decade.
When their backlog is almost 10 1/2 years worth at 2014's record delivery rate I'd have expected them to be even more bullish.

Even if they were at 60 per month now, at the 660 per year that implies it would take 8 years to deliver the backlog

Rgds
 
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speedbored
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:31 pm

Quoting 321neoLR (Reply 84):
There is also the eu influence for eu national carriers to convert to Airbus.

Are there any EU national carriers left?

Take a look at the excellent map on the pdxlight website. You will see that, after Africa (where the very small number of sales render the ration meaningless), and North America (the only other region where Boeing has outsold Airbus), Europe is the region with the next lowest percentage of Airbus sales.

If there is any EU attempt to influence EU airlines to go Airbus, it appears to be spectacularly ineffective.
 
Bongodog1964
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:34 pm

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 58):
Quoting N1120A (Reply 32):
Not true. Manual bags actually is faster than containerized bags. Containers MAY reduce staff needed, but union contracts generally dictate that. OJIs are reduced with containers, but the lower comp premiums are not likely to off-set the fewer delays throwing bags on a 737 allows for.

You do realize that there are other markets than the USA in regards to your union comment?
I would like to see manual bag loading being faster than loading containers.
Quoting zkncj (Reply 65):
Also bulk loading an 737 in some countries is an Health & Safety issue, which becomes costly for an airline. Example in New Zealand any bag over 23kg must be lifted by to handlers.

If you just take the loading process itself manual handling may well look faster, pull up a belt loader, one person loading from trolleys, two in the hold. 100 or so bags loaded in a few minutes.
On the other hand the bags have been loaded onto the trolleys, onto the belt, then off the belt and into the hold. with containers they will only be touched once in the baggage loading area. In the case of freight, it will be driven from the warehouse and loaded without being handled at all.

Bulk loading will benefit the likes of FR who carry no freight and discourage checked bags, but for a typical main line carrier with a mix of bags and freight containers will usually win.

The 23kg rule applies here in the UK, there is also the factor that lifting bags from a belt into a container can be done in a manner that is far kinder on the back than stooping in a hold.
 
321neoLR
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:35 pm

I was referring to past years, I should have said former national carriers!

I wonder how many ex boeing carriers converted to Airbus?
 
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Thunderboltdrgn
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:40 pm

Quoting speedbored (Reply 87):
Are there any EU national carriers left?

Well SK is still owned in majority by Swedish, Danish and Norwgian states.
Then TP is also owned by the Porugese state.
Like a thunderbolt of lightning the Dragon roars across the sky. Il Drago Ruggente
 
planewasted
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:53 pm

My two cents (or Öre as we have in Sweden).   
The market is obviously very hungry for planes in the 737 and A320 segment. Demand is higher than availability. So orders do not say so much about which of the planes is the best. Airlines buy what they can get. However, the one with the better plane can take a higher price, so for indication of which one the airlines prefer we should look at sales price. A shame that that is never disclosed.

The day there is a downturn in the market and supply exceeds demand will be interesting. One player will probably have a very hard time.
 
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crimsonchin
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Mon Jan 12, 2015 12:01 am

Quoting PW100 (Reply 85):
Hmm, what does it say about the “optimized -8 MAX”, if it is unable to comfortably outsell the “not-so-optimized 320neo . . .

You're putting it nicely, he didn't just say "not so optimized", he called it the "dog" of the A32S family. Wonder what it means that Boeing's "dog" (the 739ER/MAX) is being beaten by the A321, but Airbus' "dog" is still somehow keeping up with what is the most optimized of the 737 family. Must be some nice discounts.
 
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SEPilot
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Mon Jan 12, 2015 12:25 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 47):
And yet Boeing, at least for the moment, is planning a higher 737MAX monthly production rate than Airbus is planning an A320neo monthly production rate.

This may help Boeing in keeping their share of the market by enabling them to give faster delivery. Airlines who need new planes sometimes will take what they can get faster. Of course if Airbus matches Boeing's rate this advantage will go away.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
Viscount724
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Mon Jan 12, 2015 12:44 am

Quoting zkncj (Reply 8):
Basically comes down to that the A320NEO Family is an much never airframe, it was design in the 80s. Where as the 737 was design back in the 60s, while its had some design changes the main airframe is still the same.

The 737MAX is likely to have a shorter lifespan on the market than the A320neo. Boeing is talking about a completely new aircraft around 2025. That may be a consideration for some customers when it comes to resale values.

Quoting CBUDAD (Reply 59):
Boeing really does need to replace the original 707 airframe and start fresh. Would you want to buy a 1950 Ford Galaxy

The Galaxie (not Galaxy) name was first used by Ford on 1959 models.
 
roseflyer
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Mon Jan 12, 2015 12:58 am

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 94):


The 737MAX is likely to have a shorter lifespan on the market than the A320neo. Boeing is talking about a completely new aircraft around 2025. That may be a consideration for some customers when it comes to resale values.

The 737NG leasing rates average $10,000-25000 higher per month than a similar A320 based on comparable age, cycles and hours. The 737 had an original design life of 75000 cycles vs 48000 cycles for the A320. The maintenance programs allow those numbers to be exceeded, but resale value has never been a problem with 737s since it was designed to fly longer than the A320.

Source:
http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2010-11-15/html/2010-28363.htm

[Edited 2015-01-11 17:01:07]

[Edited 2015-01-11 17:04:21]
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seahawk
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Mon Jan 12, 2015 6:16 am

http://www.pdxlight.com/neo4.png

This shows the tendency, MAX is catching up, but it still has a way to go to turn the tables.

Btw. lessors seem to prefer the NEO by 2/3 so far.
 
astuteman
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Mon Jan 12, 2015 7:41 am

Quoting Karadion (Reply 74):
I don't have the numbers off hand for the A320 family.

Easy to find.

http://www.airbus.com/company/market/orders-deliveries/

the information is at the bottom of the page

6 092 x A320 family in service at the end of November last year

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 95):
The 737NG leasing rates average $10,000-25000 higher per month than a similar A320 based on comparable age, cycles and hours. The 737 had an original design life of 75000 cycles vs 48000 cycles for the A320. The maintenance programs allow those numbers to be exceeded, but resale value has never been a problem with 737s since it was designed to fly longer than the A320.

This was certainly true of earlier A320's vs the 737NG. I'm not convinced it is true of the planes being delivered today or in backlog

from this 2008 article

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...ervice-life-of-a320-family-220962/

Quote:
"Step one of ESG will be to achieve 60,000 cycles and 120,000h, due to be certificated by 2010," says Vieillard

for the longer term goal (back in 2008)

Quote:
This will set the ultimate design life limit for the A320 family, dubbed ESG II, and approval is expected by around 2012. While the ultimate envelope for ESG II will be determined by the tests, Airbus has set a target of 90,000 cycles and 180,000h - three times the original flight hour limit 20 years ago.

Rgds
 
chiad
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Mon Jan 12, 2015 7:59 am

Quoting seahawk (Reply 96):
http://www.pdxlight.com/neo4.png
This shows the tendency, MAX is catching up,

Maybe you're right, but let's see if you have the same opinion tomorrow.
I think we'll find the bars where it was in June 2014 and the year before that.
One thing one have to remember though is that the NEO continuously have to sell more units than MAX to keep the 60% market-share as the backlog rises.
So I would expect the Marked-share to even itself more out in time as the NEO will have about 800 to 1000 units bigger backlog.
 
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seahawk
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RE: A320neo Outsells 737 Max; Why?

Mon Jan 12, 2015 8:29 am

Quoting chiad (Reply 98):
Maybe you're right, but let's see if you have the same opinion tomorrow.

My personal opinion is, that the advantage of the NEO could grow again, should the A321LR be able to grab larger parts of the 757 replacement market. The A321NEO is the advantage Airbus has, it could prove decisive.

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