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enilria
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OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Mon Jan 12, 2015 3:33 pm

FAQ

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares what is for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS AT Macedonian Airlines (Greece)">IN ADVANCE?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. I remove the schedule adds if I see them and show a year over year (YOY) comparison if I notice them.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard. This causes flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

So that was the new PIE airline
*3M EYW-PIE APR 0>0.9 MAY 0>0.8 JUN 0>0.9 JUL 0>0.9 AUG 0>0.8 SEP 0>0.9
*3M FLL-PIE MAR 0>1.1 APR 0>1.7 MAY 0>1.7 JUN 0>1.7 JUL 0>1.7 AUG 0>1.7 SEP 0>1.7

9K ACK-HYA FEB 12>13 MAR 12>13 APR 12>13
*9K BID-PVD JUN 0>3 JUL 0>4 AUG 0>4 SEP 0>4

AA DFW-LIR JUN 0.5>0.4 JUL 0.5>0.4
AA DFW-MTY MAR 5>4
AA LAX-CMH APR 1.0>0.6
AA MIA-CLO JUN 1.9>1.0 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 1.5>1.0
AA MIA-JAX APR 5>6
AA MIA-TGU JUN 1.9>1.5 JUL 2>1.5 AUG 1.8>1.6
AA PHL-DFW APR 6>7
AA PHL-MIA APR 4>5
AA PHL-ORD APR 7>8
AA PHX-ORD APR 3>5

AC MIA-YUL APR 1.0>0.5

AS ANC-LAS JUN 0.4>0.1
AS LAX-LTO AUG 0.8>0.7
AS OGG-SAN JUN 1.8>1.3 JUL 2>1.4
Summer cuts in PDX, hmm...
AS PDX-ONT JUL 3>2 AUG 3>2 SEP 3>2
AS PDX-SLC JUL 3>2 AUG 3>2 SEP 3>2
*AS PDX-TUS JUN 1.0>0.2 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0
AS SEA-AUS JUL 1.0>1.7
AS SEA-SBA JUN 1.0>1.8 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2 SEP 1.0>2
AS SEA-TUS JUL 2>1.0 AUG 2>1.0 SEP 2>1.0

AT JFK-CMN APR 1.4>1.1 MAY 1.4>1.2 JUN 1.8>1.4 JUL 2>1.7 AUG 2>1.7 SEP 1.5>1.2

*B6 BOS-NAS MAY 0.2>0 JUN 0.1>0 JUL 0.1>0 AUG 0.2>0
B6 FLL-SJU MAR 7>6

BW JFK-GEO MAR 0.7>1.0 APR 0.6>0.8
BW JFK-POS MAR 3>4

CM BOS-PTY MAR 1.0>0.9 APR 1.0>0.7 MAY 1.0>0.7
CM FLL-PTY APR 0.7>0.6 MAY 0.7>0.5 JUN 0.7>0.6 JUL 0.7>0.6 AUG 0.7>0.5 SEP 0.7>0.6

DL ATL-BTR MAR 7>8
DL ATL-PHF JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4 SEP 3>4
DL ATL-SHV MAR 5>6
DL BDL-RDU APR 0.8>0.6 MAY 0.7>0.5
DL BMI-MSP APR 0.9>0.6 MAY 0.8>0.6
DL CVG-MSN MAR 0.9>0.6 APR 0.8>0.5 MAY 0.8>0.5
DL DCA-LEX MAR 0.9>0.6
DL DTW-BNA MAR 4>5
DL DTW-CUN SEP 0.1>0.4
DL DTW-PVD MAR 2>3
DL DTW-SWF FEB 3>1.8
DL GRR-MSP MAR 4>5
DL IND-MSP MAR 4>5
DL JFK-BOS MAY 7>8 JUN 7>8
DL JFK-IAD MAY 3>4 JUN 3>4 SEP 3>4
DL JFK-MSP MAY 3>4
DL JFK-YUL APR 3>4 MAY 3>4 JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4 SEP 3>4
DL LGA-BUF JUN 7>6
DL LGA-PWM MAY 5>4 SEP 5>4
DL LGA-YUL APR 4>5 MAY 4>5 JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5 SEP 4>5
DL MEM-LAX MAY 1.0>0.7
DL MEM-MCO MAR 1.0>0.7
DL RDU-TPA MAR 1.0>0.7 APR 1.0>0.7 MAY 0.9>0.7
DL SEA-ATL MAR 6>7
DL SLC-MSN MAR 0.8>0.6 APR 0.8>0.6 MAY 0.8>0.6

*F9 ATL-PHL APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0
*F9 CLT-PHL APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0
F9 DEN-PBI APR 0.5>0.2
Are we playing taps yet for the IAD focus city?
*F9 IAD-CUN MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.4>0.3 MAY 0.3>0 JUN 0.4>0 JUL 0.4>0 AUG 0.1>0
F9 IAD-TPA FEB 0.6>0.4
*F9 ORD-PHL APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0
F9 ORD-PVR JUL 0.1>0
I forgot they were even flying this
*F9 PHX-SLC MAR 0.9>0.2 APR 0.9>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0

JJ JFK-GRU APR 1.7>2 MAY 1.7>2 JUN 1.7>2 JUL 1.7>2 AUG 1.7>2 SEP 1.7>2

K5 GST-JNU FEB 4>3
K5 HNH-JNU FEB 0.9>1.7
K5 SMF-VIS FEB 0>1.3 MAR 0>1.7 APR 0>1.7 MAY 0>1.7 JUN 0>1.7 JUL 0>1.7 AUG 0>1.7 SEP 0>1.7

*LY BOS-TLV JUL 0>0.4 AUG 0>0.4 SEP 0>0.3
LY JFK-TLV MAR 1.9>1.7

*NK BOS-CLE MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0
*NK BOS-DTW MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0
*NK BOS-LAS MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0

OR SFB-AMS MAY 0>0.3 JUN 0>0.3 JUL 0>0.3 AUG 0>0.3 SEP 0>0.3

UA CLE-MCO APR 2>1.2 MAY 2>1.0 JUN 2>1.0 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 2>1.0 SEP 2>1.0
UA DEN-ICT MAY 5>4 JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4 SEP 5>4
UA EWR-SEA APR 1.7>0.9
I guess it was an error. It's back.
*UA IAD-HSV APR 0.2>0.9 MAY 0>1.4 JUN 0>1.6 JUL 0>1.6 AUG 0>1.5 SEP 0>1.6
UA IAH-DEN APR 13>12 MAY 12>11 JUN 12>11 JUL 12>11 AUG 12>11 SEP 12>11
UA IAH-LGA APR 8>6 MAY 8>6 JUN 8>7 JUL 8>7 AUG 8>6 SEP 8>6
UA IAH-MSY APR 10>9 MAY 11>10 JUN 11>10 JUL 11>10 AUG 11>10
UA IAH-PHX APR 5>4 MAY 5>4 JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4 SEP 5>4
UA IAH-PVR MAY 1.2>1.4
UA IAH-YVR SEP 1.0>1.8
UA LAX-BZN MAR 0.8>0.3 APR 0.2>0.0
UA LAX-CUN MAY 1.3>1.5
UA LAX-IAH MAY 14>13 JUN 14>13 JUL 14>13 AUG 13>12
*UA LAX-ICT MAR 1.0>0.0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0
UA ORD-CHS MAY 3>4 SEP 3>4
Back after last week's apparent error
*UA ORD-HSV APR 0.2>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0
UA ORD-ROA APR 1.9>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 1.9>3 SEP 1.7>3
UA ORD-STC MAR 1.9>0
UA SFO-ATL APR 1.9>1.1 MAY 1.8>0.8 SEP 1.9>0.9

US CLT-MIA APR 2>4
US DCA-MYR APR 0.4>0.2
US PHL-AVP SEP 6>5
US PHL-CAK SEP 2>3
US PHL-CHS SEP 3>4
US PHL-CLE SEP 6>7
US PHL-ISP SEP 3>4
US PHL-ORD APR 7>6
US PHL-ORF SEP 7>8
US PHX-JFK APR 2>3
 
a380787
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Mon Jan 12, 2015 3:44 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA IAH-LGA APR 8>6 MAY 8>6 JUN 8>7 JUL 8>7 AUG 8>6 SEP 8>6

That's quite a shrinkage during peak summer season. Is WN HOU-LGA and DL regional IAH-LGA really giving UA a hardtime here ? Or UA shifting more and more over to IAH-EWR ?
 
miaami
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Mon Jan 12, 2015 3:53 pm

AA is adding a 2nd nonstop on MIA-SAN on 3/29/15.

385 MIA 09:20 SAN 11:49 738
145 MIA 20:05 SAN 22:36 738

384 SAN 12:45 MIA 20:28 738
1042 SAN 22:15 MIA 05:52 738
 
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SANFan
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Mon Jan 12, 2015 3:56 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AS ANC-LAS JUN 0.4>0.1
AS LAX-LTO AUG 0.8>0.7
AS OGG-SAN JUN 1.8>1.3 JUL 2>1.4
Summer cuts in PDX, hmm...
AS PDX-ONT JUL 3>2 AUG 3>2 SEP 3>2
AS PDX-SLC JUL 3>2 AUG 3>2 SEP 3>2
*AS PDX-TUS JUN 1.0>0.2 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0
AS SEA-AUS JUL 1.0>1.7
AS SEA-SBA JUN 1.0>1.8 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2 SEP 1.0>2
AS SEA-TUS JUL 2>1.0 AUG 2>1.0 SEP 2>1.0

Of the 8 changes reported here, 2 are increases... and they are both SEA. No surprise. And I'm sure there will be lots more SEA gains which will undoubtedly cause losses at other stations.

However, some of the changes in other markets are due in part to the introduction of the new E175s to the fleet, on both new routes as well as some frequency adjustments on existing routes (such as TUS.)

bb
 
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SANFan
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Mon Jan 12, 2015 4:04 pm

Quoting miaami (Reply 2):
AA is adding a 2nd nonstop on MIA-SAN on 3/29/15.

Now that's news that I like to see! Thank you for reporting that, miaami.

There has been a bit of talk of how well MIA-SAN has been doing, along with the addition of extra sections during the recent holidays, so I've been hoping that SAN would see a daylight r/t sometime soon!

Very nice to see AA doing some growth and expansion at Lindbergh Field after a very long dry-spell!  

bb
 
COEWRNJ
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Mon Jan 12, 2015 4:05 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA EWR-SEA APR 1.7>0.9

Is UA really going less than daily on EWR-SEA?

[Edited 2015-01-12 08:05:38]
 
Sightseer
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Mon Jan 12, 2015 4:10 pm

Emilia even though I'm a very new member here, I've been enjoying these threads from a distance for a long time. Thanks for doing these every week!
 
azstar
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Mon Jan 12, 2015 4:31 pm

Is it just me, or does F9 seem to be the least stable airline in America? It seems that they either don't do enough (or any) research and jump in and out of markets almost weekly, more frequently than Allegiant. It seems that none of the management they've had has been able to find the proper niche for them, if there is one.
 
ScottB
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Mon Jan 12, 2015 4:37 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA IAH-DEN APR 13>12 MAY 12>11 JUN 12>11 JUL 12>11 AUG 12>11 SEP 12>11
UA IAH-LGA APR 8>6 MAY 8>6 JUN 8>7 JUL 8>7 AUG 8>6 SEP 8>6
UA IAH-MSY APR 10>9 MAY 11>10 JUN 11>10 JUL 11>10 AUG 11>10
UA IAH-PHX APR 5>4 MAY 5>4 JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4 SEP 5>4
...
UA LAX-IAH MAY 14>13 JUN 14>13 JUL 14>13 AUG 13>12

It's very odd to see UA making reductions in five of the top fifteen O&D markets from Houston (including three of the top four) going right into the peak summer travel season. I suspect they're already seeing weakness in bookings tied to the slump in the energy industry.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Summer cuts in PDX, hmm...
AS PDX-ONT JUL 3>2 AUG 3>2 SEP 3>2
AS PDX-SLC JUL 3>2 AUG 3>2 SEP 3>2
*AS PDX-TUS JUN 1.0>0.2 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0
...
AS SEA-TUS JUL 2>1.0 AUG 2>1.0 SEP 2>1.0

I'd say it's partly just cutting TUS to the bone during the hottest part of the summer when absolutely no one wants to be there. The ONT cut is probably about ONT continuing to be terrible. PDX-SLC doesn't bode well for them trying to go Emily Thorne on DL at SLC.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
I forgot they were even flying this
*F9 PHX-SLC MAR 0.9>0.2 APR 0.9>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0

No doubt the passengers did, too.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA CLE-MCO APR 2>1.2 MAY 2>1.0 JUN 2>1.0 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 2>1.0 SEP 2>1.0

I don't know why they even bother.
 
a380787
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Mon Jan 12, 2015 4:42 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 8):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA IAH-DEN APR 13>12 MAY 12>11 JUN 12>11 JUL 12>11 AUG 12>11 SEP 12>11
UA IAH-LGA APR 8>6 MAY 8>6 JUN 8>7 JUL 8>7 AUG 8>6 SEP 8>6
UA IAH-MSY APR 10>9 MAY 11>10 JUN 11>10 JUL 11>10 AUG 11>10
UA IAH-PHX APR 5>4 MAY 5>4 JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4 SEP 5>4
...
UA LAX-IAH MAY 14>13 JUN 14>13 JUL 14>13 AUG 13>12

It's very odd to see UA making reductions in five of the top fifteen O&D markets from Houston (including three of the top four) going right into the peak summer travel season. I suspect they're already seeing weakness in bookings tied to the slump in the energy industry.

Isn't UA doing about re-banking ? Maybe these are the changes we're observing from that exercise ? And without comparing gauge, it's hard to decipher whether these changes are a net positive or not just from frequency alone.
 
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redzeppelin
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Mon Jan 12, 2015 4:50 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 8):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):I forgot they were even flying this
*F9 PHX-SLC MAR 0.9>0.2 APR 0.9>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0
No doubt the passengers did, too.

No surprise. They were the fourth carrier on a route that already has pretty good fares and plenty of capacity from WN, DL and AA.
 
nkops
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Mon Jan 12, 2015 5:10 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*F9 ATL-PHL APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0
*F9 CLT-PHL APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0

So are they competing with themselves out of TTN?

As always, thanks for these threads Enilria
Turn left heading 080 contact departure
 
wkid87
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Mon Jan 12, 2015 5:48 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DL MEM-LAX MAY 1.0>0.7

Does that means that Delta is getting ready to dump this route or is it due to Memorial Day Holiday in May?
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Mon Jan 12, 2015 5:51 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*UA LAX-ICT MAR 1.0>0.0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0

Another UA nonstop destination out of LAX falls by the wayside.

It will be interesting to see if AA or DL add LAX-ICT.
 
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jetblastdubai
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Mon Jan 12, 2015 6:21 pm

Quoting WA707atMSP (Reply 13):
Another UA nonstop destination out of LAX falls by the wayside.

Old: United has too many RJs on long flights
New: United is dropping long RJ flights.  
 
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mariner
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Mon Jan 12, 2015 6:24 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Are we playing taps yet for the IAD focus city?
*F9 IAD-CUN MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.4>0.3 MAY 0.3>0 JUN 0.4>0 JUL 0.4>0 AUG 0.1>0

Gosh, a seasonal route goes seasonal. What a novel idea.

Or maybe the need the aircraft for the returning seasonal routes - IAD to MEM and/or CVG.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
a380787
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Mon Jan 12, 2015 6:31 pm

Quoting jetblastdubai (Reply 14):

Old: United has too many RJs on long flights
New: United is dropping long RJ flights.

Exactly ... people keep wanting the cake and eat it too. I never really understood why the route even existed considering how small ICT metro is.

But even with this cut, UA will maintain the broadest legacy connectivity to ICT :

DL : ATL MSP
AA : DFW ORD
UA : DEN IAH ORD
 
FATFlyer
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Mon Jan 12, 2015 6:56 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):

K5 SMF-VIS FEB 0>1.3 MAR 0>1.7 APR 0>1.7 MAY 0>1.7 JUN 0>1.7 JUL 0>1.7 AUG 0>1.7 SEP 0>1.7

SeaPort replacing Great Lakes for EAS flights at VIS.

SeaPort originally proposed VIS to both BUR (listed in the 1/9/2015 OAG Change thread) and OAK.

But then K5 proposed replacing OAK with VIS-SMF flights. Visalia agreed to the change thinking there might be a few government business related passengers combined with similar onward destination opportunities available at SMF as at OAK.

My thought is K5 may now propose CEC EAS flights (replacing OO) that operate to SMF instead of the Bay Area.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Mon Jan 12, 2015 7:00 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 8):
It's very odd to see UA making reductions in five of the top fifteen O&D markets from Houston (including three of the top four) going right into the peak summer travel season. I suspect they're already seeing weakness in bookings tied to the slump in the energy industry.
Quoting a380787 (Reply 1):
That's quite a shrinkage during peak summer season. Is WN HOU-LGA and DL regional IAH-LGA really giving UA a hardtime here ? Or UA shifting more and more over to IAH-EWR ?

I think it really is pressure from Wall Street on margins and they continue to trim capacity.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 3):
Of the 8 changes reported here, 2 are increases... and they are both SEA. No surprise. And I'm sure there will be lots more SEA gains which will undoubtedly cause losses at other stations.

I think expanding at SEA, while financially difficult, is an understandable defensive move. If they shrink PDX to do it, it reeks of burning the deck chairs to keep the lights on. I'm sure PDX is better than SEA on a lot of routes thanks to DL.

Quoting nkops (Reply 11):
As always, thanks for these threads Enilria
Quoting Sightseer (Reply 6):
Emilia even though I'm a very new member here, I've been enjoying these threads from a distance for a long time. Thanks for doing these every week!

  You are welcome... Enilria (airline backwards)

Quoting azstar (Reply 7):

Is it just me, or does F9 seem to be the least stable airline in America?

In terms of routes they are #1 with a bullet.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 8):
PDX-SLC doesn't bode well for them trying to go Emily Thorne on DL at SLC.

Good point. That is an important drop as that should be the best of the junk they added at SLC.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 8):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
I forgot they were even flying this
*F9 PHX-SLC MAR 0.9>0.2 APR 0.9>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0

No doubt the passengers did, too.

LOL. Yeah, it's one of their many oddballs. I was looking at their route map. It's impressive till you realize many of the routes are barely flown.

Quoting mariner (Reply 15):
IAD to MEM

"And another batter steps to the box... and folks, somehow they struck out without taking a swing..."

Quoting ScottB (Reply 8):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA CLE-MCO APR 2>1.2 MAY 2>1.0 JUN 2>1.0 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 2>1.0 SEP 2>1.0

I don't know why they even bother.

If they can't find people to fill that they should virtually close the doors. Hubs only.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 9):
Isn't UA doing about re-banking ? Maybe these are the changes we're observing from that exercise ?

I don't think banking matters a ton to frequency in core markets like that.

Quoting nkops (Reply 11):
So are they competing with themselves out of TTN?

I think they are just transitioning out of TTN and this is their way of doing it.

Quoting wkid87 (Reply 12):
Does that means that Delta is getting ready to dump this route or is it due to Memorial Day Holiday in May?

Both? I think it is possible they stay since LAX is basically a hub, but I can see it going Jun-Aug only.

Quoting WA707atMSP (Reply 13):

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*UA LAX-ICT MAR 1.0>0.0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0

Another UA nonstop destination out of LAX falls by the wayside.

It will be interesting to see if AA or DL add LAX-ICT.

I think its doubtful, but who knows.

Quoting jetblastdubai (Reply 14):
Old: United has too many RJs on long flights
New: United is dropping long RJ flights.

Good analysis

Quoting mariner (Reply 15):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Are we playing taps yet for the IAD focus city?
*F9 IAD-CUN MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.4>0.3 MAY 0.3>0 JUN 0.4>0 JUL 0.4>0 AUG 0.1>0

Gosh, a seasonal route goes seasonal. What a novel idea.

The season being Dec-Mar? Didn't Delta just start this route a week or two ago in this thread? I think they just ran away.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Mon Jan 12, 2015 7:05 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA SFO-ATL APR 1.9>1.1 MAY 1.8>0.8 SEP 1.9>0.9

Considering this route is fairly new, this seems somewhat significant going into the summer travel season, although it's still slightly more than daily in June-August.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Mon Jan 12, 2015 7:10 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 18):
The season being Dec-Mar?

Well, April, actually, according to you:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
APR 0.4>0.3 MAY 0.3>0

Throughout its association with CUN, most routes have ended (seasonally) in April. Go to the source - not the middleman - and IAD-CUN ends on April 29.

Quoting enilria (Reply 18):
Didn't Delta just start this route a week or two ago in this thread? I think they just ran away.

Of course you do. Less negative thinking may be that it is what the CEO has frequently said - and has frequently been reported on a.net - north-south in winter and east-west in summer.

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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Mon Jan 12, 2015 7:14 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 18):
You are welcome... Enilria (airline backwards)

Dang it, autocorrect!   

Quoting boilerla (Reply 19):
Considering this route is fairly new, this seems somewhat significant going into the summer travel season, although it's still slightly more than daily in June-August.


Agreed. I was hoping that it would stay at least daily, although given UA's history with the route I'm not especially surprised.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Mon Jan 12, 2015 7:25 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA EWR-SEA APR 1.7>0.9
I guess it was an error. It's back.
Quoting COEWRNJ (Reply 5):
UA EWR-SEA APR 1.7>0.9
I guess it was an error. It's back.

Yeah I was going to say -- very odd. Might be the cue for DL to start SEA-EWR.

Quoting WA707atMSP (Reply 13):

Another UA nonstop destination out of LAX falls by the wayside.

Not like LAX-ICT ever stood a change to be honest, IMHO.
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Mon Jan 12, 2015 8:26 pm

Quoting nkops (Reply 11):
So are they competing with themselves out of TTN?

One could suppose that, but it appears flights from TTN and PHL will be complimentary going in morning at one and evening at the other, both ways.

Frontier 14
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Mon Jan 12, 2015 8:31 pm

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 22):
Quoting WA707atMSP (Reply 13):

Another UA nonstop destination out of LAX falls by the wayside.

Not like LAX-ICT ever stood a change to be honest, IMHO.

It stood just fine for three years.
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Mon Jan 12, 2015 8:51 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 20):
Quoting enilria (Reply 18):
The season being Dec-Mar?

Well, April, actually, according to you:

I meant CUN seasonality in general. It seems to slow down after March.

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 21):
Dang it, autocorrect!
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AS ANC-LAS JUN 0.4>0.1
AS LAX-LTO AUG 0.8>0.7
AS OGG-SAN JUN 1.8>1.3 JUL 2>1.4
Summer cuts in PDX, hmm...
AS PDX-ONT JUL 3>2 AUG 3>2 SEP 3>2
AS PDX-SLC JUL 3>2 AUG 3>2 SEP 3>2
*AS PDX-TUS JUN 1.0>0.2 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0
AS SEA-AUS JUL 1.0>1.7
AS SEA-SBA JUN 1.0>1.8 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2 SEP 1.0>2
AS SEA-TUS JUL 2>1.0 AUG 2>1.0 SEP 2>1.0

With this development it will be interesting to see what changes. He is ex-Air Tran and Southwest. I expect a big change in network strategy vis-a-vis Delta, however, I have no idea what that change will be. I guess it boils down to either running (pulling SEA capacity) or diverting even more resources into the battle. Since they hired an ex-Air Tran guy who has experience fighting Delta, I expect the latter for better or worse. I wonder if they move forward on a code share with United now?
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Mon Jan 12, 2015 8:53 pm

Quoting Frontier14 (Reply 23):
One could suppose that, but it appears flights from TTN and PHL will be complimentary going in morning at one and evening at the other, both ways.

TTN has its own catchment area, and TTN and PHL are at opposite ends of the fairly massive metropolitan area that is PHL.

Why do some airlines fly LGA and another NY airport - or LAX and SNA or LAX and BUR or LAX and LGB or any combo thereof?

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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Mon Jan 12, 2015 9:01 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AT JFK-CMN APR 1.4>1.1 MAY 1.4>1.2 JUN 1.8>1.4 JUL 2>1.7 AUG 2>1.7 SEP 1.5>1.2

These are interesting changes. Is this the first time AT is serving JFK more than once a day in high season? Or is this just zealous deployment of the 787s?
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Mon Jan 12, 2015 9:07 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 26):
TTN has its own catchment area, and TTN and PHL are at opposite ends of the fairly massive metropolitan area that is PHL.

     

Frontier 14
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Mon Jan 12, 2015 9:19 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 25):
I meant CUN seasonality in general. It seems to slow down after March.

Well, duh. Even then, it is more than was originally announced.

It was originally announced as 1 x weekly - Saturday only - service. Like Topsy, it grew some - it's briefly 4 x weekly end of February, which I would take as positive sign, but each to their own, always:

http://www.leesburgtoday.com/busines...7-da06-58b4-ac36-c12cc51647ed.html

"Frontier Airlines Announces Additional Dulles Routes

Service to Palm Beach and Cancun will start in late November. Cancun service will run weekly on Saturdays"


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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Mon Jan 12, 2015 9:52 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 26):
TTN has its own catchment area, and TTN and PHL are at opposite ends of the fairly massive metropolitan area that is PHL.

PHL is right in the center of the Philadelphia metropolitan area. TTN is in the northeast corner of PHL and southwest corner of NYC region. All of South Jersey, Mercer, Philadelphia and Bucks counties are overlap between the two airport catchments.

PHL has some additional pull from King of Prussia-Media-Malvern-Delaware, while TTN has pull from other counties in the 732/848/908 NJ area code regions.

I don't doubt PHL-CLT theoretically can be a different market than TTN-CLT. But, in practicality, if US fare matches F9 in PHL, flights to CLT become very cheap, and F9 essentially diluted yields and attractiveness of it's own TTN-CLT flight.

ORD and ATL are arguably more fragmented with multiple carriers, larger markets, and it's over 10 hours of drive time.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:14 pm

Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 30):
PHL is right in the center of the Philadelphia metropolitan area. TTN is in the northeast corner of PHL and southwest corner of NYC region. All of South Jersey, Mercer, Philadelphia and Bucks counties are overlap between the two airport catchments.

The point being that based on Frontier surveys (about) 85% of TTN traffic can be considered local to the TTN area. This number does vary some, according to the destination.

Does PHL draw from Mercer? Sure - it has more destinations, more frequencies, more choices, and some don't like ULCC's - but Mercer doesn't draw nearly so much from PHL.

Similarly, when Frontier ran ILG-ATL it had quite high load factors and very low fares, but it didn't make a dent in TTN-ATL and it isn't so very much further away.

Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 30):
I don't doubt PHL-CLT theoretically can be a different market than TTN-CLT. But, in practicality, if US fare matches F9 in PHL, flights to CLT become very cheap, and F9 essentially diluted yields and attractiveness of it's own TTN-CLT flight.

Yeah - if.

I just checked three days in late March/April and US fares are at least 50% (often much more as in double) than Frontier flights PHL-CLT.

TTN-CLT is often cheaper again, even now, before the PHL-CLT flights start, following the pattern that it has always been, leading to a few sold out flights even at this time of the year.

But - could the sky fall? Sure. I guess.

mariner

[Edited 2015-01-12 14:38:12]
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GentFromAlaska
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Mon Jan 12, 2015 11:42 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
B6 BOS-NAS MAY 0.2>0 JUN 0.1>0 JUL 0.1>0 AUG 0.2>0

This is interesting in the LCC realm This is the second LCC to suspend Nassau or announce it and thereafter decide not to fly it; F9 Why?

Perhaps seasonal adjustments or the Bahamian government telling the U.S. they only desire legacy service.
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Mon Jan 12, 2015 11:53 pm

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 32):
This is interesting in the LCC realm This is the second LCC to suspend Nassau or announce it and thereafter decide not to fly it; F9 Why?

jetBlue is not suspending service to Nassau. It is seasonally suspending BOSNAS, while it continues to fly FLLNAS, MCONAS, DCANAS and JFKNAS.

[Edited 2015-01-12 15:54:58]
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Mon Jan 12, 2015 11:57 pm

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 24):
It stood just fine for three years.

Then why is it being cut?
"KEEP CLIMBING" -- DELTA
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Tue Jan 13, 2015 12:12 am

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 34):

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 24):
It stood just fine for three years.

Then why is it being cut?

Because it no longer works, obviously. But it lasted for three years. At some point, it worked just fine.
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Tue Jan 13, 2015 12:14 am

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 33):
Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 32):
This is interesting in the LCC realm This is the second LCC to suspend Nassau or announce it and thereafter decide not to fly it; F9 Why?

jetBlue is not suspending service to Nassau. It is seasonally suspending BOSNAS, while it continues to fly FLLNAS, MCONAS, DCANAS and JFKNAS.

Also - B6 ran BOS-NAS last summer because DL did. They've always been seasonal with it. I think they can fill a weekly easily in off-peak but it looks like they were better off putting the plane somewhere else.
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN

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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Tue Jan 13, 2015 12:18 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 31):
Yeah - if.

US/AA did fare match on IAD-CLT and CLE-DFW on AA, and coincidence or not, F9 is ending or has ended these routes.

Not right away, but eventually it did and got aggressive with at one point discounting DCA-CLT as well as IAD-CLT, in addition to BWI-CLT which it already discounts because of WN/FL. That said, F9 knows this and ended IAD-CLT. I'm sure WAS-Charlotte is a bigger market than PHL-Charlotte and more Charlotteans can have more fun in DC over Philly in the summer. I'm still puzzled on the Charlotte confidence because last year all TTN had was 4x weekly. This year, it'll be daily but daily also out PHL. A lot more seats.

It remains to be seen what the end game is here. Maybe lose money but make US lose more money on what is otherwise a very profitable route for US because now US will be fare matching.

Rather than PHL-CLT-PHL-ORD-PHL-ATL-PHL routing it possibly could have done PHL-ORD-XXX-ORD-PHL-ATL-PHL with XXX maybe being PIT where PIT-Chicago is a 3 carrier spoke-hub but high fares.

I doubt the UA AA and WN would feel compelled to all lower their fares. I noticed that NK has an early morning low fare PHL-ORD flight and F9 would be competing directly against that. But likely the two will co-exist either way whether the flights are at the same time or other times of the day.

[Edited 2015-01-12 16:21:29]
 
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mariner
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Tue Jan 13, 2015 12:48 am

Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 37):
US/AA did fare match on IAD-CLT and CLE-DFW on AA, and coincidence or not, F9 is ending or has ended these routes.

Neither was good from the git-go and never really picked up, even with rock bottom fares. I've no idea why - or why TTN-CLT has been so successful.

Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 37):
It remains to be seen what the end game is here.

Indeed it does.

The full summer schedule hasn't been announced yet. A couple of western connections from PHL are presently available at ORD - maybe there'll be more - or not, as the case may be.

I can't predict what hasn't happened.

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Wingtips56
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Tue Jan 13, 2015 1:36 am

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 17):
My thought is K5 may now propose CEC EAS flights (replacing OO) that operate to SMF instead of the Bay Area.

The thought around here is that SeaPort would be more likely to run CEC-PDX, although CEC-SMF works for me and my visiting sister-in-law. As long as one can connect. SFO on K5 is probably just begging to be delayed/canceled all the time, as OO has had trouble enough and K5 would probably be given even less priority when a cloud passes over.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 8):
AS SEA-TUS JUL 2>1.0 AUG 2>1.0 SEP 2>1.0

I'd say it's partly just cutting TUS to the bone during the hottest part of the summer when absolutely no one wants to be there.

And the Seattle folks wouldn't want to be down in the desert in hot summer and miss both sunny days back home.   

Quoting ScottB (Reply 8):
PDX-SLC doesn't bode well for them trying to go Emily Thorne on DL at SLC.

I love that! A show that just begs you to lap up a saucer of milk while watching.   

Anyway, I don't see AS at SLC being able to really pull off any Revenge over DL, as DL has the onward connecting opportunities. For example, I don't see AS adding SMF-SLC as there just isn't enough point-to-point traffic for more flights. When I worked at SMF for WA, we had very few SMF-SLC local passengers ... almost all were thru or connecting. Even Morris Air relied on connections, and WN dropped it after taking over KN and the route. So the same probably applies to PDX and SJC, hence the cut-backs.
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Tue Jan 13, 2015 2:23 am

Quoting Wingtips56 (Reply 39):
The thought around here is that SeaPort would be more likely to run CEC-PDX, although CEC-SMF works for me and my visiting sister-in-law. As long as one can connect. SFO on K5 is probably just begging to be delayed/canceled all the time, as OO has had trouble enough and K5 would probably be given even less priority when a cloud passes over.

Or maybe both PDX and SMF from CEC. Visalia was only seeing a couple of flights to LAX with Great Lakes. But SeaPort is now planning 4X on weekdays (plus some weekend flights) to two different destinations. Maybe CEC would serve as a connector between K5's Southern California and PDX flights.
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Tue Jan 13, 2015 2:43 am

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 35):
Because it no longer works, obviously. But it lasted for three years. At some point, it worked just fine.

I mean, you could say the same thing about any route -- like CLE-FLL or BWI-LAX worked at one point but now it doesn't.

But less than 3 years and on a long and thin RJ route probably means they gave it a chance -- but it never materialized.

Won't be a missed route as it's outsourced United Express anyway. Would you really want to fly a CR7 for almost 4 hours westbound from Kansas to LA?
"KEEP CLIMBING" -- DELTA
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Tue Jan 13, 2015 2:53 am

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 41):
Would you really want to fly a CR7 for almost 4 hours westbound from Kansas to LA?

Let's not exaggerate THAT much. The flight hasn't broken three hours in a while. However, I agree with your point.
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threeifbyair
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Tue Jan 13, 2015 2:55 am

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 22):
Yeah I was going to say -- very odd. Might be the cue for DL to start SEA-EWR.

DL can't maintain 4x daily to JFK even with massive TATL connections and it is pretty heavily committed to an LGA/JFK strategy in NYC. I doubt EWR is forthcoming. I'd guess ORD would come before EWR.

UA is apparently trying to kill itself by starvation. New York is a massive market from SEA and I can't imagine UA is incapable of filling the seats with a huge hub on one end.

I really want AS to get another SEA-EWR flight (probably red-eye eastbound, unfortunately, in order to maximize utilization). If so, the schedule would look like the SEA-BOS summer schedule. What is the slot status for EWR these days?
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Tue Jan 13, 2015 3:27 am

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA EWR-SEA APR 1.7>0.9
Quoting COEWRNJ (Reply 5):
Is UA really going less than daily on EWR-SEA?

My guess is that this is a mistake/misfile/whatever. I just can't imagine UA cutting from double-daily on the current (January) schedule to less than daily in the Spring (April.)

That makes no sense at all. I see this being corrected next week back to at least 2 flights/day.

bb
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Tue Jan 13, 2015 4:44 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 38):
I've no idea why - or why TTN-CLT has been so successful.

There are a lot of flyers who do not like US who at last check is the dominant carrier at PHL. Will that change under the US/AA merger; perhaps.
Man can be taken from Alaska. Alaska can never be taken from the man.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Tue Jan 13, 2015 8:39 am

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA EWR-SEA APR 1.7>0.9

Crazy if true.

Quoting enilria (Reply 18):
I'm sure PDX is better than SEA on a lot of routes thanks to DL.

But on these routes?

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 41):
Would you really want to fly a CR7 for almost 4 hours westbound from Kansas to LA?

CR7's aren't that bad. Not a mainline but not bad.

Quoting threeifbyair (Reply 43):
New York is a massive market from SEA and I can't imagine UA is incapable of filling the seats with a huge hub on one end.

Well, it's the other end that seems to be losing UA's interest.

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ericm2031
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Tue Jan 13, 2015 10:17 am

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AS SEA-SBA JUN 1.0>1.8 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2 SEP 1.0>2

Great to see an expansion in SBA instead of cuts. F9 just ended service last week and are down to just 3 airlines.

Not long ago AS only had daily SEA and seasonal PDX. Come June, it'll be double daily SEA and daily PDX. This opens up many more SEA connections not currently available due to the later arrival in to SEA.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Tue Jan 13, 2015 11:09 am

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 46):
CR7's aren't that bad. Not a mainline but not bad.

Not bad compared to an E145 or CR2 maybe   Then again, Kansas to LAX should not take 4 hours on jet aircraft.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/16/2015:3M/AS/DL/NK/F9/UA

Tue Jan 13, 2015 12:56 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 31):
The point being that based on Frontier surveys (about) 85% of TTN traffic can be considered local to the TTN area. This number does vary some, according to the destination.

Since F9 is expanding at PHL and contracting at TTN I guess they have a new survey.  
Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 32):
Perhaps seasonal adjustments or the Bahamian government telling the U.S. they only desire legacy service.

More likely Atlantis cut off their subsidy and they said we'll drop it if you do. They dropped it.

Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 37):
This year, it'll be daily but daily also out PHL. A lot more seats.

Agreed. I don't see that working. CLT is not even a very large market compared to the other places they are adding like MCO, ORD, etc.

Quoting rtalk25 (Reply 37):
It remains to be seen what the end game is here. Maybe lose money but make US lose more money on what is otherwise a very profitable route for US because now US will be fare matching.

Perhaps they are attempting to teach AA a lesson. Good luck with that...

Quoting mariner (Reply 38):
I've no idea why - or why TTN-CLT has been so successful.

We don't really know that it has. With the frenetic nature of the F9 schedule I don't get the impression they do things solely on the basis of a lengthy analysis of historical performance.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 46):
Quoting enilria (Reply 18):
I'm sure PDX is better than SEA on a lot of routes thanks to DL.

But on these routes?

I agree TUS is not great in the Summer, but I am very very confident that they needed more planes to fight DL in the Summer and PDX was next to fund it.

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