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Boeing778X
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:02 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 42):
Makes sense. It would look really daft NOT to believe it when you see it

Absolutely not! I guess we'll just have to wait and see  
Quoting EPA001 (Reply 43):
Of course I do. And here is the reason: it is conveniently and consistently left out when EK order 150 B777's, but it is brought up if EK talks about more A380's. I find that very inconsequent, but hey, maybe it's just me?  .

It's probably you.

The 777X not only has 150 orders from EK, it has 145 other orders from 5 other airlines, with more on the horizon. It's a modern aircraft with updated aerodynamics, and will enter service in 5 years.

The A380 has been in service 10 years this April. There are 165 orders as of now, 140 of which are for EK alone. The last significant order was from You-Know-Who in 2013, for 50. Before that, in 2012, it was from SQ, who depleted their options for 5. And then of course, there's Amedeo, a leasing company, which just pushed back delivery of the type till 2017, and they ordered 20.

Everyone other than EK and SQ have order 20 and under, and most of those customers have received most or all of their orders. I'm willing to bet VS isn't going to want to deal with it, so I would expect them to convert to the A350 at least.

Airlines, notably BA, have stated that they do not want additional frames, and I believe AF said the same thing.

So here's what I see: I see a very large, expensive, four engined jet made by a company who gambled nearly everything on it's success, and ten years later, is having only one airline order them in sustainable numbers.

And then we have people on here stating "NEO the A380" and A380-900! One thing's for certain, Leahy is going to have to work till he weeps just so the company can break even on the A380-800ceo alone!

So, to answer your problem, the answer is simple. Twins are the future. The 777-9 and A350-1000 are the future. I believe that if nothing happens soon, the A380 will be a write off.

[Edited 2015-01-22 14:04:07]
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:06 pm

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 15):
What is the REAL reason for their desire to re-engine??

I think one major reason is to stay ahead of the competition.
A number of carriers may want to use the A380 but in simple terms they are risk averse, but if they can get cheap frames they will give it a go. Now where would they get cheap A380 frames, I do not think that the EK frames will be going scrap after their lease is up, so those would be the cheap frames.
If he has the NEO its performance will be better than the CEO allowing him to maintain his current advantage.

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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:10 pm

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 51):
he A380 has been in service 10 years this April. There are 165 orders

etc etc.
As of this moment there are 76 B788 and 68 A388 aloft. You can watch http://www.flightaware.com/live/aircrafttype/. If the A388 is a failure so it is the B788.
 
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:26 pm

I think, as some have already pointed out in various ways, is that Airbus do not have to do anything, to sell the same number od 380's to EK. That us why Airbus wants wider support, to launch a more modified NEO. I expect EK (and Airbus) are hoping RR will commit to a new engine, then Airbus has far less exposure, and EK get a lot of what they want.

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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:41 pm

Quoting par13del (Reply 52):
I do not think that the EK frames will be going scrap after their lease is up, so those would be the cheap frames.

Of EK's present fleet of 57 A380 airplanes only about 1/3 are on sale-leaseback deals, the rest are owned outright. I think we might see EK doing what they have done with the rest of their fleet for the most part -- fly them until they are "dead" -- which in EK terms is about 20 years. Early builds will "die" a little sooner and leases will be extended but I don't see any of them ending up in the secondary market -- if there is one.
 
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:49 pm

Quoting wingman (Reply 6):
On thing is clear in these recent statements, the enthusiasm and general tone from Airbus on the NEO is much more tempered than it was after the PR fiasco last month.

I got the same impression.

For instance http://aviationweek.com/commercial-a...keeps-orders-deliveries-high-level said:

Quote:

As for the plans to re-engine the A380, Bregier pointed out that the aircraft “was a financial burden in the past,” and “we want to avoid another burden.” His priority was to “find other customers for the current version,” but “longer-term we will move to evolutions of the A380.” Likely options include re-engining and, further down the road, a stretched version.

but IMHO commitments for 100 more A380s on top of the current commitments would make Airbus pretty darn enthusiastic.

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 39):
Airbus really needs another *200* orders across that decade to keep the line operating as it is today. If they really cut costs and settle into a low rate production then its still 100 extra planes they need to find customers for... Just to not lose money building them.

I've said in the past that A380 really needs a 2nd EK. I really hadn't considered it's 2nd EK very well might just be EK itself doubling its already mind boggling commitments!

The devil will be in the details, especially with regard to firming up commitments and delivery dates, but I have a very hard time seeing Airbus decide to ignore EK's pleadings for 100 NEOs and closing the shutters on the A380 production line.

Boeing launched 748 on top of something like 80 commitments and committed itself to hanging new engines on a heavily modified wing, and making both pax and freight variants. Seems like Airbus would be moving forward with more commitments and less work to do than Boeing did with 748.
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:50 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 47):

not really for south China

also CX BRAND strength in China is no where near EK brand strength in India

if CX brand was so strong in China KA would not exist...

EK has tagged international flying and comfortable flying even in Economy to its name like no other carrier
and when you do that to an Economy that is only just maturing and growing in aviation
youo basically have sealed all of them as customers and future customers.

Most Indian kids who know a thing about planes know EK- you cannot say the same for CX

most mainlanders overseas think Cathay? what is that

this is why EK can fill their A380's and Cathay cannot even fill 777's properly inspite of having a larger population in its radius.
 
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:59 pm

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 29):
Quoting a380787 (Reply 27):This is coming from an airline that cancelled all 70 of their A350s
True. I'd say there's no guarantee for even the promise of new A380s.

That of course is a lame argument. Following that reasoning, they could just as easily cancel a hundred 777X . . .

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 39):
100 A380 over 10+ years is not going to keep the lights on at the factory

Airbus really needs another *200* orders across that decade to keep the line operating as it is today. If they really cut costs and settle into a low rate production then its still 100+ extra planes they need to find customers for

Easy. They’ll just cancel a hundred or so 777X and order another 100 A380NEO . . .   . . .

Quoting delta88 (Reply 31):
In all honesty, it seems Emirates has become too big to fail, so to speak. But really, 100 A380NEOs? How does one afford that many aircraft, at say 200 million a piece(after discounts and haggling if any, of course), that ammounts to alot of money

Funny, never saw the same question when it came to the 150 or so 777X. Anet double standards at best again.

Quoting 777stl (Reply 36):
So, Emirates buys 100 NEOs and casts off all their gently used CEOs into the desert. I have to imagine this would destroy the new build market for Airbus should EK do this.

Why buy a new aircraft when you can get a gently used one for a fraction of the amount?

Not sure I follow. Even if they get rid of “gently used” A380s, why would that destroy the new build market? If they were that gently used, and cheaper than new builds, why would EK get rid of them???
Yes, I realize that they lease them. But surely their market value is reflected in the lease rate. If they are so cheap that Airbus can’t sell any new birds, their lease rate would be good enough for EK to keep them in the first place . . . self defeating argument from Airbus perspective (from owners perspective, it may be somewhat different).

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 51):
Twins are the future. The 777-9 and A350-1000 are the future. I believe that if nothing happens soon, the A380 will be a write off

I agree, wide-body twins are the future. I disagree that that means there is no feature for anything else. Why is this always a simplistic black-and-white thing, good-or-bad thing? Is this typical American thinking, Or am I now being simplistic?
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wingman
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Thu Jan 22, 2015 11:00 pm

Quoting moo (Reply 11):
What PR fiasco would that be?

You might've missed the thread about the Airbus Finance Director, rightly or wrongly, having statements he made to investors interpreted as the company questioning the continued viability of the 380. This was about a month ago so around the year end holidays. The very next day the CEO came out and was adamant the NEO would be done. This was in response to extensive press coverage re the investor comments and also some very unhappy comments from their largest customer. Fiasco is a strong word but in this context I like it a lot. I doubt it was the funnest 72 hours at Airbus HQ that week.

The main point of my post was to note the change in tone, evidenced by the opening comment from Leahy "If we ever do the 380 NEO.." It all sounds like exactly what it is, a question still to be decided.

You can do more research into this story starting with this link:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...airbus-group-idUSKBN0JP0W020141211
 
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Thu Jan 22, 2015 11:01 pm

Quoting wingman (Reply 6):
On thing is clear in these recent statements, the enthusiasm and general tone from Airbus on the NEO is much more tempered...

Because they know EK will keep buying the A380 in it's current form. It's critical to their continued success.



Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 15):
I STILL don't understand why Clark is so damn Hot to re-engine the A380.

Because it will be an even more effective weapon to hammer the major European and Asian carriers with.



And that might be one reason Airbus is not jumping at the chance to launch it, because if EK uses the A380neo to successfully apply even more hurt to BA, LH, AF, SQ, MH and TG, that is six existing A380 customers who may not be in a position (financially or strategically) to replace all (or any) of their A380s with A380neos.

Also, an A380neo undercuts the A380 on the second-hand market. If second-hand A380s go to the scrapyard instead of new operators, that means they won't be selling spare parts, training and other ancillaries.

What's good for EK is not necessarily good for everyone else...
 
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Thu Jan 22, 2015 11:02 pm

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 33):
EK knows that without them the A380 is no where close to where it is today.

Who knows. EK doesn't generate passengers out of thin air. If EK didn't exist, all those butts would be flown around in AI, LH, BA, TG, AF, QF metal. The A380 may have had a much larger success with the European and Asian legacy carriers.
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Thu Jan 22, 2015 11:39 pm

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 51):
165 orders as of now, 140 of which are for EK alone.

Actually there's currently 165 orders outstanding, of which 83 are destined for EK.
 
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Thu Jan 22, 2015 11:55 pm

Quoting javierglez (Reply 53):
etc etc.
As of this moment there are 76 B788 and 68 A388 aloft. You can watch http://www.flightaware.com/live/aircrafttype/. If the A388 is a failure so it is the B788.

Although while the 787-8 holds a large number of orders, I think a large portion of that will be converted to larger models.

But you're comparing apples to oranges otherwise. Plus, the number of planes aloft at a given time isn't the best example of sales and popularity.

Quoting PW100 (Reply 58):
Following that reasoning, they could just as easily cancel a hundred 777X . . .

That's true, but seeing as EK was the one who pushed Boeing to produce the 777X, I won't fear that happening anytime soon   

Quoting PW100 (Reply 58):
I agree, wide-body twins are the future. I disagree that that means there is no feature for anything else. Why is this always a simplistic black-and-white thing, good-or-bad thing?

I think one aspect one could point out is that twins usually have better economics that quads. That's usually the situation, but it depends.
For example, IB has a good use for their A346s, as they need the power to get out of hot and high fields like Bogota, Quito and Lima, but in the general market, a 777-300ER would be a better aircraft.
The same could be said about the A380. Not only does EK want the aircraft because it fits into their business plan well, but because DXB is strategically located to utilize a large fleet to it's full potential. There are only so many routes the A380 can be used elsewhere, and upcoming planes such as the 777-9 and A350 will do these missions more practically.

What also surprises me is how the A380 has been slow to sell in the Far East, particularly in China. China Southern and Asiana each have handfuls of them, but seeing as the traffic between cities is high, it seems like the A380 would have good use there in a domestic setting.

The point is, the way I see it, the A380s role in the market will eventually be reduced to a niche of a highly limited nature. This will be the case with the 747-8 and this will be the case with any other quad. Of course, a lot of what we on A.net think could be wrong, but this is how I see it.

Quoting PW100 (Reply 58):
Is this typical American thinking,

This is a silly question! What does being American have to do with any of this?   
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 12:15 am

Quoting Kashmon (Reply 45):
EK is the defacto Indian international carrier

India is now one of the world's major economies when you pretty much have that to yourself- QR/EH do not even come close to EK - and everyone in India who flies and even now has never been on a plane before knows Emirates.

FYI, that is history. There are only 3000/week left in UAE(Dubai)-India bilateral which EK has to share with FZ, and FZ recently demanding its fair share.

India rejected requests for more seats and to any major adjustments to current station/frequency/seat restrictions.

China doesn't even acknowledge ASA update requests. Apparently they get lost in mail all the time.

Indonesia is bit far away.

Africa always in turmoil.

So, Which is the next big market for EK? I know I shouldn't be asking this question.
 
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 1:05 am

Much angst over a numbers run company (EK).

Quoting speedbored (Reply 20):
Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 15):
What is the REAL reason for their desire to re-engine??

To reduce his costs and increase his profits.

  
Not to mention added revenue on flights to the Americas.   

Quoting speedbored (Reply 20):
No, they have to look at the business case and decide whether doing a NEO will make more (or lose less) money than not doing a NEO.

That is 100% true. All business demands a ROI on investments. With a launch customer, I think this becomes a no brainer. I'm sad Pratt isn't invited to the table, but that is the enthusiast in me as the reality is RR is the best positioned to offer an engine in the near term and this is either done in the near term or Airbus finds a different strategy.

Quoting SelseyBill (Reply 32):
At around £25M list a unit, a 100 plane order from EK is a 400+ engine order for RR, and its not hard to understand why RR are so 'bullish' about the A380NEO.

   RR will be the clear winner on the A380NEO. EK too.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 37):
Quoting a380787 (Reply 27):
This is coming from an airline that cancelled all 70 of their A350s

And is re-evaluating that aircraft and might yet re-order (i'd have a chuckle at that one)

A380787, how is wise fleet planning a bad decision? The A350 grew out of the niche EK had for them. Perhaps they'll buy them again, but after negotiations for a configuration that better meets EK's needs.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 60):
Because they know EK will keep buying the A380 in it's current form. It's critical to their continued success.

I'm certain EK will take their current CEO orders. But they wouldn't buy A380CEOs forever. If Airbus is going to 'jump start' the line, that takes the NEO (or a stretch, but the NEO is lower cost for Airbus).

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 64):
Africa always in turmoil.

Yet EK has done very well growing there.

There are markets for EK. Eventually China will see the opportunity to let them in. Not to mention the huge potential of Malaysia and Indonesia.

I read similar arguments on EK back in 2005 and yet they still kept growing. Dubai as a destination is growing too. While the city state is still 'riding the wave' (risk of rapid contraction), EK seems well positioned to ride out a European recession. EK has grown despite little growth in seats to India... I think they'll continue that trend.

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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 1:12 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 65):
I'm certain EK will take their current CEO orders. But they wouldn't buy A380CEOs forever.

As long as Airbus keeps producing them, I fully expect EK to keep buying them. They need the capacity the plane offers because even if JXB is built out to six runways, they're going to be constrained at their destination airports.
 
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 1:12 am

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 63):
That's true, but seeing as EK was the one who pushed Boeing to produce the 777X, I won't fear that happening anytime soon

It might be said that EK is pushing Airbus a little to do the neo...perhaps they can give the breath of life to that program as well?   
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 1:31 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 60):
And that might be one reason Airbus is not jumping at the chance to launch it, because if EK uses the A380neo to successfully apply even more hurt to BA, LH, AF, SQ, MH and TG, that is six existing A380 customers who may not be in a position (financially or strategically) to replace all (or any) of their A380s with A380neos

So are you in a nutshell saying that Airbus rather than simply selling their products are also being political in attempting to preserve business for favourite or carriers domiciled in the home country (EU)?
In true A versus B fashion, that would be like Boeing refusing to produce the 777X since the most popular version the 777W is not used by USA carriers ( AA has a few) but is used by foreign carriers to serve the USA.

Your point may be valid, but until they actually say so, I will take the simply approach, Airbus does not want to see the bulk of their current backlog converted to the NEO, they may also not want a 767-400 issue. In this case it would be the financial number not the number of frames.

Only caveat I can think of is if current customers start requesting delivery delays to force a NEO decision, however, I suspect the contracts may make that a difficult proposition.
 
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 1:49 am

Airbus is not stupid and knows very well that 100 A380 NEOs EK would buy would mean at least 25 or so of the CEO models EK currently has on order would be converted. If so, that's not 100 more A380 sales on top of the current order - it's only 75 or so more A380 sold depending on how many are converted. Given the success, lack of success or whatever you want to call it of the current A380, unless Airbus got committments of at least 150+ A380 NEOs frames that did not include carriers converting current CEO orders - which still need to sell for overall program - then I don't think it is wise for Airbus to launch the A380 NEO. As for the -900 stretch - that's even more of an EK pipe dream... It seems to me that EK needs A380s more than Airbus needs to make a NEO so if Airbus decides not to do a NEO I have no doubt that EK will keep buying A380s. IMHO Airbus has more to lose by making the NEO than by not.

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 51):
And then we have people on here stating "NEO the A380" and A380-900! One thing's for certain, Leahy is going to have to work till he weeps just so the company can break even on the A380-800ceo alone!

  

Agreed!

Quoting Revelation (Reply 56):
Boeing launched 748 on top of something like 80 commitments and committed itself to hanging new engines on a heavily modified wing, and making both pax and freight variants. Seems like Airbus would be moving forward with more commitments and less work to do than Boeing did with 748.

That was not surprising given that the 748s predecessor 744 was quite successful. We can't say that as confidently about the A380 which would be the A380 NEOs predecessor.

694 x 747-400s built v. 152 built / 317 ordered A380s thus far.

That Airbus is not rushing any decision on the A380 NEO is very, very smart on their part.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 66):
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 65):
I'm certain EK will take their current CEO orders. But they wouldn't buy A380CEOs forever.

As long as Airbus keeps producing them, I fully expect EK to keep buying them. They need the capacity the plane offers because even if JXB is built out to six runways, they're going to be constrained at their destination airports.

Likewise!

Like I said above, IMHO EK need A380s more than Airbus needs to make an A380 NEO. Airbus has far more at stake here. I wouldn't be surprised if there was no A380 NEO launch without at leats 150+ committments not including converted CEOs - which airbus might not get - and therefor EK will just have to make do with A380 CEOs unless they buy Airbus  

[Edited 2015-01-22 18:09:13]
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 2:51 am

I have a feeling that we are going to have this sort of threads for quite some time into the future. Simply because Airbus doesn't know yet what to do.

They have two relevant options:

1. To offer a third engine option pretty soon - Trent 7000 on top of Trent 900 and EA 7200.

2. To make a substantial rework, and base it on the RR Advance.

Option 1 doesn't have to be chosen for the next year or two since the engine isn't available until 2017'ish, and A330NEO has priority.

Option 2 includes substantial uncertainties. Certainly certificaion date of the engine, but maybe even more important, the price of the engine. Risk is high when basing a new plane version on completely new engine OEM blueprints.

Very likely we will see a temporary production ramp down. It doesn't automatically spell disaster. If in doubt, have a look at the B737 delivery rate curve over the past fifty years.

Relevant customers likely know a lot more about Airbus' plans - or lack of plans - than we do. And as long as they haven't made up their mind there will be none (or very few) new orders.
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 3:00 am

Quoting prebennorholm (Reply 70):
I have a feeling that we are going to have this sort of threads for quite some time into the future. Simply because Airbus doesn't know yet what to do.

Spot on!

Quoting prebennorholm (Reply 70):
1. To offer a third engine option pretty soon - Trent 7000 on top of Trent 900 and EA 7200.

That was another option that I though might make sense. It is somewhere between not doing anything at all and risking a lot more with a NEO in which substantial rework would be needed.
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 3:09 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 69):
Airbus is not stupid and knows very well that 100 A380 NEOs EK would buy would mean at least 25 or so of the CEO models EK currently has on order would be converted. If so, that's not 100 more A380 sales on top of the current order - it's only 75 or so more A380 sold depending on how many are converted.

EK has already said they expect an A380NEO by 2020 and 25 of their latest 50 airplane order are due 2020 and beyond, that's a given. That leaves EK with a fleet of 115 CEO's and the requirement for a further order of 90 NEO's to do a complete fleet replacement.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 69):
unless Airbus got committments of at least 150+ A380 NEOs frames that did not include carriers converting current CEO orders - which still need to sell for overall program - then I don't think it is wise for Airbus to launch the A380 NEO

Assuming EK takes the 115 NEO's (above), another 35 for growth and 150 to non-EK airlines, over 10 years AB gets 30+/- a year which I'm sure they'd be happy with -- maybe even a little profit. But that other 150 requires everybody that has or is expected to get a CEO to replace it -- don't think that will happen.
 
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 3:24 am

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 72):
EK has already said they expect an A380NEO by 2020 and 25 of their latest 50 airplane order are due 2020 and beyond, that's a given. That leaves EK with a fleet of 115 CEO's and the requirement for a further order of 90 NEO's to do a complete fleet replacement.
Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 72):
Quoting 777Jet (Reply 69):
unless Airbus got committments of at least 150+ A380 NEOs frames that did not include carriers converting current CEO orders - which still need to sell for overall program - then I don't think it is wise for Airbus to launch the A380 NEO

Assuming EK takes the 115 NEO's (above), another 35 for growth and 150 to non-EK airlines, over 10 years AB gets 30+/- a year which I'm sure they'd be happy with -- maybe even a little profit. But that other 150 requires everybody that has or is expected to get a CEO to replace it -- don't think that will happen.

I was thinking 150 NEOs in total including what EK takes (without the loss of current A380 CEO frames being built resulting from a converted order in the interest of the entire A380 program as a whole). So, based on your numbers above and not including converted CEO orders, 90 new frames built for NEOs to EK. That just leaves 60 needed to get to the 150. If EK takes anther 35 NEOs for growth then that leaves only 25 more needed to get to the 150.
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 3:35 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 73):
I was thinking 150 NEOs in total including what EK takes (without the loss of current A380 CEO frames being built resulting from a converted order in the interest of the entire A380 program as a whole).

150 over 10 years is 15 a year. They are planning to break even at 30 airplanes per year starting this year but I doubt they'll ever be able to break even at 15 airplanes per year. The present management will not continue a program that doesn't produce profits.
 
JAAlbert
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 4:18 am

Quoting astuteman (Reply 36):
Tim Clark's words were:-
"What we’ve said is if you are going to do the A380neo, we are in for 100 [aircraft]. We are putting it on the table; we’ll start it off for you.”
You think he'll make that commitment and then pull the rug from under the programme by converting all his CEO orders?
I strongly doubt it.
He's already said he'll take all his CEO's

In reply to the argument that Airbus runs the risk that EK will convert its CEOs to NEOs, resulting in losses to Airbus - EK is not the only one holding some high cards in this game. EK really wants the NEO - Airbus is thus in a position to exact some assurances from EK that the NEO orders will be new (or mostly new) orders rather than conversions and Airbus is also in a position command a certain price from EK. How much Airbus can charge EK will depend on how much EK really wants the NEO. I agree that Airbus needs commitments from other carriers, but Airbus isn't in as desperate a situation re: the NEO as some on this topic have urged.
 
lutfi
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 5:15 am

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 62):
What also surprises me is how the A380 has been slow to sell in the Far East, particularly in China. China Southern and Asiana each have handfuls of them, but seeing as the traffic between cities is high, it seems like the A380 would have good use there in a domestic setting.

High Speed Rail... Plus the airports in many cases are a long way from the cities. (30-70km away) I know that when I lived in Japan, the railways for most trips were significantly faster door to door, and much less hassle.
 
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Boeing778X
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 5:19 am

Quoting lutfi (Reply 75):
High Speed Rail... Plus the airports in many cases are a long way from the cities. (30-70km away) I know that when I lived in Japan, the railways for most trips were significantly faster door to door, and much less hassle.

I see.
The Shinkansen in Japan has really competed and competed well against the airlines, so it makes sense that China does it.
United Airlines: $#!ttin' On Everyone Since 1931
 
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Matt6461
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 5:23 am

Quoting JAAlbert (Reply 74):
EK is not the only one holding some high cards in this game. EK really wants the NEO - Airbus is thus in a position to exact some assurances from EK that the NEO orders will be new (or mostly new) orders rather than conversions and Airbus is also in a position command a certain price from EK. How much Airbus can charge EK will depend on how much EK really wants the NEO.

Maybe Airbus could charge a 20% premium on A380CEO->NEO conversions? Fuel is generally half of operating cost, capital about a quarter. So if fuel decreases by 10-12%, then maybe EK wouldn't mind paying 20% more for each converted frame. Probably can't charge that much to the general market, but for conversion orders maybe.
 
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Navigator
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 6:02 am

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 1):
I know I'll be chastised for this, but I still wonder if "bubble" and "burst" might someday become two words that are synonymous with EK.

Thats the day when World economics is turned upside down. Emirates is supported by a strong economy. If you think of Emirates as a bubble you might as well see most other Airlines as bubbles as well. As long as the World needs oil Emirates in one form or Another is here to stay.
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parapente
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 6:34 am

I wonder what the global air freight market will look like with 100 converted ( free) A380 CEO,s centrally based in Dubai at their brand new airport,with their global deep water port just down the road for good measure ?if their model works for people (and it clearly does) why not cargo?Its a bit of a mom and pop fragmented industry right now ( just like the old legacy airlines ) ripe for a complete rethink me thinks.Watch this space?
 
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Ab345
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 6:36 am

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 62):
What also surprises me is how the A380 has been slow to sell in the Far East, particularly in China. China Southern and Asiana each have handfuls of them, but seeing as the traffic between cities is high, it seems like the A380 would have good use there in a domestic setting.

China has pretty unique way of ordering and operating aircraft as I m sure you know.. CZ actually can't utilise the A388 as it should and the CEO made that clear in the interview to flightglobal

Being the largest player in China is no guarantee that the carrier always gets its way. One of the most embarrassing setbacks for China Southern is its failure to use the Airbus A380 on long-haul routes out of Beijing since taking delivery of the type in 2011. This is due to regulatory resistance that prevents Chinese carriers from competing directly on international routes.

China Southern’s attempts to jointly operate the A380 with Air China on key routes out of Beijing also failed when Air China insisted that it wanted only to wet-lease the aircraft – a display of increasing rivalry.

The reality is that brewing inside China – beneath the polite nods, gentle applause and friendly smiles – is a fierce battle to become the country’s pre-eminent carrier.

China Southern has been forced to ply its five A380s – the only superjumbos operating in China – on domestic routes from Beijing to Guangzhou and Shenzhen, with only one long-haul service to Los Angeles. Si pledges that China Southern remains determined to one day operate the type effectively.

“My biggest wish is to use the A380s from Beijing to USA and Europe. We have not given up… We’re still fighting hard for it,” he says. “Looking at it from another perspective, whether it’s in the domestic or international market, it raises the brand and influence of China Southern.”

China is a unique operating environment, with many decisions still being tightly regulated. But Si is positive that with deepening reforms, things are set to change.


http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...southern-airlines-chairman-403690/

As far as OZ is concerned they just got it   We will see comments from them in the near future I believe

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 68):
That was not surprising given that the 748s predecessor 744 was quite successful. We can't say that as confidently about the A380 which would be the A380 NEOs predecessor.

694 x 747-400s built v. 152 built / 317 ordered A380s thus far.

The predecessor was so successful cause at the time it was the only player in town for its capabilities. On this assumption I think the A380 was launched on (the ability to take on the 744 head-to-head), but in the meantime the 77W happened and weirdly enough the 744 got cancelled a year after the 77W entered into service.

The 747 program got beaten by both high and low (77W and X, and 388/neo). The only legacy 744 operators that stayed with it were LH KE and CA two of which also operate the 388. So comparing the two numbers is a bit out of contect IMHO
 
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seahawk
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 6:44 am

With 75 effective orders, Airbus is probably around 125 frames short of what they need to launch a NEO. Now everyone can guess if they find airlines who will buy those 125. A380NEO is dead imho. EK will be demanding it but in the end take the CEOs for a discount and by 2020 the line will close.
 
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Navigator
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 7:08 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 68):
That was not surprising given that the 748s predecessor 744 was quite successful. We can't say that as confidently about the A380 which would be the A380 NEOs predecessor.

That comparison is not fair. The 747 programme started out with the 747-100. The -400 is based on the original 747. And by the time the 747-400 went into production the 747 had been running for a long time. The A380 has not been around long enough to make any such comparisons even if the orders have dried up. The A380neo could give a boost to the A380 much like the -400 gave the 747.
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astuteman
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 7:35 am

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 62):
That's true, but seeing as EK was the one who pushed Boeing to produce the 777X, I won't fear that happening anytime soon

This is the same EK that is "pushing" Airbus, aggressively too, to develop an A380NEO.
But they'll back out of the A380 contracts ...
At least we're not practising double standards ...   

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 62):
This is a silly question! What does being American have to do with any of this?

this suggests that you missed his point

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 68):
Airbus is not stupid and knows very well that 100 A380 NEOs EK would buy would mean at least 25 or so of the CEO models EK currently has on order would be converted

They do? It seems A-net certainly knows this.
If EK make it too hard to launch the NEO, they won't get their own way.
Why would they do that?
Should I guess? Because it's the A380?

Rgds
 
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JetBuddy
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 7:40 am

I'm pretty sure we'll see an A380neo. Airbus' response has always been luke warm about speculations about future models and upgrades. They denied the A330neo for a very long time, up until it's launch. Same thing about the A321 97t / A321LR / A321neoLR.

It's simple math. Will they make money on upgrading the A380neo for say.. 50 extra frames? If the answer is yes, then they'll do it. If not, they won't. And even if 50 extra frames will make them money, they'll push it and delay it until they've secured even more orders before going ahead with the program.
 
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moo
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 8:21 am

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 38):
100 A380 over 10+ years is not going to keep the lights on at the factory

120 orders in 10 years has worked fir the 747, why not for Airbus?
 
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speedbored
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 8:53 am

Quoting moo (Reply 85):
120 orders in 10 years has worked fir the 747, why not for Airbus?

Even though the break-even point on the A380 line currently appears to be around the 30 a year mark, I see absolutely no reason why, with orderly adjustments within the assembly line and supply chain, Airbus cannot achieve break-even or better with a lower production rate.

After all, Boeing seem to have managed perfectly well with the 748 line at rate 21 and seem confident that they will still be doing OK at rate 18.
 
TheSonntag
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 8:53 am

So when are the other airlines due to need replacements?

LH usually uses planes for 20-25 years. This would mean they need replacement-airframes around 2030. Of course, I would not rule out growth, but I do not see them ordering new frames for delivery before 2025.

SIA might need some, their first A380s date from 2007, so they might need replacement in the 2020s.

QF: They still need to take their deferred ones, although they actually might use them.

AF: If they still exist, earliest in the 2030s, I guess.

So I certainly see a market for A380NEOs, maybe some additional orders (Turkish airlines?) for A380 NEOs, but in 2030 we might want a A380NEO2 already.
 
tommy1808
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 9:02 am

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 15):
I STILL don't understand why Clark is so damn Hot to re-engine the A380. Is the range or the Payload Lacking??
What is the REAL reason for their desire to re-engine??

Because they realize they won´t achieve any meaningful CASM improvements in the next 15 years without an A380neo, since the 777x will just improve the fleetwide economics more or less to the A380 level give or take a few percent. As an Airline CEO i would find it worrisome if there is no frame on the horizon that allows me to sustain the cost gap with the competition, as their costs will improve a lot with all those 787, 777x, A350 and A330neos coming online, since many of them have old long haul fleets to begin with. Going from a 744 to an 779 is a quantum leap, going from 77W to 779 is a much smaller improvement.
Aggressively expanding market share becomes a somewhat iffy proposition when your cost advantage melts away.

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
rheinwaldner
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 9:47 am

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 25):
The A380 is in an already small niche

A user with your nickname should not call out an aircraft with hundreds of sold copies to be a niche product....
Many things are difficult, all things are possible!
 
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mariner
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 9:49 am

Quoting prebennorholm (Reply 69):
I have a feeling that we are going to have this sort of threads for quite some time into the future. Simply because Airbus doesn't know yet what to do.

Huh?

Airbus doesn't need to do anything yet, they're still holding their cards. Emirates has shown its hand.

mariner
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Navigator
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:09 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 90):
Quoting prebennorholm (Reply 69):I have a feeling that we are going to have this sort of threads for quite some time into the future. Simply because Airbus doesn't know yet what to do.
Huh?

Airbus doesn't need to do anything yet, they're still holding their cards. Emirates has shown its hand.

mariner

I think the relationship between Airbus and Emirates is much closer than most in this forum believe. They of course have regular talks about the proposed development of the A380neo as well as about other Projects. And most of what is said will never reach public.
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XT6Wagon
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:20 am

Quoting moo (Reply 85):
120 orders in 10 years has worked fir the 747, why not for Airbus?

Its a very simple reason... The A380 has a large and complex process to build them, with much of it unique to the A380.

The 747 is built in a building with 767, 777 and 787. It has no specialized supply chain supporting it. It doesn't need to fly to another city to be outfitted. So there is very little overhead on the 747 program. The 777 can keep the lights on in everett with no help needed from the other programs.

A second reasons is that Boeing has long since paid off the majority of the assets used to build it, and long ago optimized it for low rate production. So Boeing would be unable to suddenly start shoving 40+ a year out the door, but its already at a sustaniable rate of production. (order book... not so much).
 
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SEPilot
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:21 am

Quoting astuteman (Reply 41):
Makes sense. It would look really daft NOT to believe it when you see it

I dunno. I was taught never to believe anything I hear and only half of what I see. The problem is figuring out which half.   

As to EK being a bubble, I wonder that too. Many companies expand wildly with seeming success, and then something happens and they crash. Any company that expands as rapidly as EK has is cause for question. I am not saying it is going to happen; just that it is a very real possibility. And if it does, it will likely be with little warning to those on the outside, especially as the ME is not anywhere near as open as most Western nations, and it is much easier to hide bad news.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
TheSonntag
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:30 am

Somehow EK is the Amazon of Aviation. World domination with a big question mark. Time will tell.
 
strfyr51
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:30 am

Quoting speedbored (Reply 20):
Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 15):Unless I'm Mistaken?? .
You are


Ok? then I'm Mistaken in Which WAY?? I've read to Lower Costs. So? does this mean the airplane is Inefficient??
It's NOT like that many other airlines even FLY the airplane. So what dies Clark Know that We Don't or YOU don't?
Nobody has said that about the B747-8i the A350 or the B787. So What's REALLY up?? Clark isn't talking to hear himself Speak of to read his quotes in the press
And?? If the NEO comes about ?? It will Surely diminish the Value of the Airplanes already flying because Airline Executives and planners will wonder JUST like I'm doing.
What is the Problem with that airplane??
 
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mariner
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:37 am

Quoting Navigator (Reply 91):
I think the relationship between Airbus and Emirates is much closer than most in this forum believe. They of course have regular talks about the proposed development of the A380neo as well as about other Projects. And most of what is said will never reach public.

I'm sure that's true. I'm talking about the public statements, which is really all we have to go on.

Everything else is speculation.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
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Navigator
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:40 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 93):
As to EK being a bubble, I wonder that too. Many companies expand wildly with seeming success, and then something happens and they crash. Any company that expands as rapidly as EK has is cause for question. I am not saying it is going to happen; just that it is a very real possibility. And if it does, it will likely be with little warning to those on the outside, especially as the ME is not anywhere near as open as most Western nations, and it is much easier to hide bad news.

As long as one of the wealthiest nations in the World is supporting it there is no comparison between Emirates and other Airlines you are thinking of here. The World has not seen an airline built on the wealth supporting Emirates before. There is simply nothing to compare with.
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speedbored
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:54 am

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 95):
Ok? then I'm Mistaken in Which WAY??

Well, you are mistaken because you said:

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 15):
it seems to me the Airplane isn't as advertised and it Sure put's to doubt the Quality of the present airplane..

Watch the interview with Tim Clark C in Davos and you will see why:
http://www.businessweek.com/videos/2...s-if-airbus-upgrades-clark#r=lr-sr

Some quotes:
"this aircraft has enormous qualities both in terms of it's passenger appeal, it's product and the ability to mitigate the bottom line issues"

"what does the NEO do? It helps that enormously - we are talking about a 10-13% improvement in the seat mile costs of what is already a very good airplane for us"

"would be very pleased if they (other carriers) bought more of them because the world would be a better place for it"

"environmentally friendly"

"hugely popular with the consumers"

"all the places we fly this aircraft to are always full"

"the A380 solves a lot of those problems"

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 95):
What is the Problem with that airplane??

For Tim Clark at EK, the only problem seems to be that he doesn't have enough of them.
 
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N14AZ
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RE: Emirates Would Buy 100 A380neo

Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:55 am

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 95):
What is the Problem with that airplane??

Huh, who said there is a problem with that airplane?

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