Quoting zeke (Reply 99): I would have thought they should have constructed a metal carriage box for the fuselage out of I beams and lift the carriage box rather than lifting with straps to prevent further crushing.

Quoting Okie (Reply 100): I would agree, I sure expected some other means than trying to just break the weight of the fuselage over the aft of the ship with a wench.

I also agree, but since they have appeared to butchered other parts by cutting them in half with a circular saw, it's not surprising!

Jimbo

For some weird reason I was thinking they would use a semi-submersible transport ship like MV Blue Merlin from Netherlands. Once the fuselage floats on balloons ship can submerge and lift entire thing intact. I thought investigators would like it as intact as possible.

Never expected them to winch a fuselage with human remains and drop few times in the process. If Indonesia trying to show their prowess, it is not working. At least show some respect to victims and their families. Also don't video tape and release to public. Its a disgrace.

Any reason why they dismissed all foreign navies helping them quickly?

Quoting alfablue (Reply 89): Quoting md80fanatic (Reply 78): Also would like to add a photographic-level memory, another curse if you ask me.

Quoting alfablue (Reply 89): I'd love to eat you for breakfast.

    

seriously, is humanity not great. every thread like this never fails to deliver the goods. (Not you alfablue). These people just always pop up. I recall the navs and super sleuths we have had on here previously.

some of the theories on here has as much promise as my new dog breed I tried to achieve once.

A mix of a bulldog and a shih tzu - It was going to be called a bullshXX (you know the word) ..... doomed for failure.

[Edited 2015-01-25 19:40:53]

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 102): For some weird reason I was thinking they would use a semi-submersible transport ship like MV Blue Merlin from Netherlands. Once the fuselage floats on balloons ship can submerge and lift entire thing intact. I thought investigators would like it as intact as possible.

That is overkill!
The Blue Marlin is Gianormous!
There are many submersible barges available in Asia, who would do it for less coins.

No Tax On Rotax

Quoting md80fanatic (Reply 78): Also would like to add a photographic-level memory, another curse if you ask me.

My photographic memory is likely orders of magnitude superior to yours. Anything my eyes set upon is captured and deposited permanently into my limitless capacity cache. Don't know about your end but only problem I have is poor data retrieval capability. Also, my grey matter's outrageous search function could rival that of A.net's notoriety.   

Quoting Okie (Reply 100): I sure expected some other means than trying to just break the weight of the fuselage over the aft of the ship with a wench.

I imagine that would be unsuccessful, I'd prefer using a winch or crane for that instead  

Quoting zeke (Reply 99): I am no salvage expect, I would have thought they should have constructed a metal carriage box for the fuselage out of I beams and lift the carriage box rather than lifting with straps to prevent further crushing. While it an approved method to move aircraft on straps when disabled on the ground, this assumes the structural integrity of the fuselage to resist the loads. It appears from the initial photos we saw that the fuselage appeared to have failed.

Indeed, it would make more sense to lift it with the load more spread out, I wonder if the investigators think they've figured it out from the CVR and FDR and they're under pressure to recover the remaining bodies.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 91): Epic fail - the Russian writing is a big clue

What's really funny is that if you actually watch the NBC video, at no point does it link that image to QZ8501; it's quite obviously a 'stock' photo, as anyone familiar with how the press works would know.

It would appear that expertise in metallurgy, aerodynamics, physics, oh - and not forgetting

Quoting md80fanatic (Reply 78): Also would like to add a photographic-level memory

are still not enough to spot a rather obvious red herring. Doh.

Now please stop wasting our time, sir.

Riv'

Isn't the area of the crash fairly near (say, 300 km or less) to offshore oil drilling activities?

I'm just thinking that there ought to be plenty of equipment eminently capable of retrieving that fuselage once it's balloon floated to the surface.

That video of the attempt to drag the fuselage over the stern of the ship was nothing short of appalling. Trying to pull that much mass (even if it's only 5% of the empty weight of the airplane!) *around a corner* with a *single line* of *fiber rope*!! Come on, there's got to be better ropesmen on board that craft, or they wouldn't even be capable of tying their boat up to a dock!

Quoting Pihero (Reply 48): Secondly, the lat / long squares are 2 minutes apart. At a latitude of 3.5° South, these squares represent 1.996 nm per side. So the scale is dead wrong... But I agree it's a very pretty picture, but I'd not use it for anything but toilet paper.

Worse than that. The scale is in increments of 2/100ths of a degree.

Quoting flightless (Reply 107): I'm just thinking that there ought to be plenty of equipment eminently capable of retrieving that fuselage once it's balloon floated to the surface.

The Singapore anchorage was full when I was there a fortnight ago.
Nice DP construction vessels, with an A-frame that would have done the job!

Quoting flightless (Reply 107): That video of the attempt to drag the fuselage over the stern of the ship was nothing short of appalling. Trying to pull that much mass (even if it's only 5% of the empty weight of the airplane!) *around a corner* with a *single line* of *fiber rope*!! Come on, there's got to be better ropesmen on board that craft, or they wouldn't even be capable of tying their boat up to a dock!

"Ropesmen", interesting.
Never heard that word before.

No Tax On Rotax

Quoting notaxonrotax (Reply 103): That is overkill! The Blue Marlin is Gianormous! There are many submersible barges available in Asia, who would do it for less coins.

I thought MV Blue Marlin is unique. If the technology is available in the region, I wonder why they didn't use it, unless Chief just watched re-run of "Parts Unknown" Sicily episode.

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 110): I thought MV Blue Marlin is unique.

She is, in the fact that she's huge!
But the "Vanguard" is now the largest in the world.....of this class.

The Dutch are indeed the pioneers in this game, but there are many other type of submersible barges on the market.
Including Asian ones!

If you're interested, have look at the following links.

http://www.dockwise.com/page/fleet.html

A smaller Asian one, seen in this article:

http://www.wd2.gov.hk/eng/feature.html

The tragic sinking of one, here described:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mighty_Servant_2

Off topic, sorry; people!

No Tax On Rotax

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 97): Wing center section just as the line parted. Bottom side perhaps?

That rather looks like the horizontal stabiliser, also because the wing never got above the water (the rops broke 7m under the surface).

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 110): I thought MV Blue Marlin is unique. If the technology is available in the region, I wonder why they didn't use it, unless Chief just watched re-run of "Parts Unknown" Sicily episode.

Sure, that thing is unique. But it's overkill for parts (!) of a plane that weighs 78 tons at MTOW.

Surely, quite heavy water is trapped in the tanks and possibly other parts of the debris. But then one can safely winch the parts to the surface (below water, water "weighs" nothing). Then one can drain the tanks, in the worst case by drilling some holes.

Presto... the A320 wing is so light that every self-respecting crane in Indonesia can handle it.


David

From what I've heard about Indonesia, we should not discount the possibility that graft was involved in the selection of the salvage contractor. It might be easier to extract an appropriate kickback from ones' brother in law than a Singaporean salvage company.

Quoting Okie (Reply 100):

It is disturbing

Quoting flightless (Reply 107): I'm just thinking that there ought to be plenty of equipment eminently capable of retrieving that fuselage once it's balloon floated to the surface. That video of the attempt to drag the fuselage over the stern of the ship was nothing short of appalling. Trying to pull that much mass (even if it's only 5% of the empty weight of the airplane!) *around a corner* with a *single line* of *fiber rope*!! Come on, there's got to be better ropesmen on board that craft, or they wouldn't even be capable of tying their boat up to a dock!

My thoughts exactly. I have restrained in commenting because I have no expertise in oceanic salvage operations but from I have seen so far, it defies all logic. I wish someone would tell us why it has to be done this way, until then, it seems to me it is being done completely wrong!

If Aluminium has a density of say 4 times water.
then underwater the weight is only 3, due to the buoyancy effect of water.
But unfortunately , when you lift the thing out, the missing extra ton/m3 comes back to break your rope.

At what point can the international community apply some behind the scenes leverage, so that we can get some extra help and equipment on scene to prevent further damage to the aircraft?

Ultimately, many wrecks contain clues/evidence which have safety ramifications, and it really is quite concerning that such evidence may be being destroyed.

I get that it is their right to salvage the aircraft as they see fit, and I assume that no help has been asked for....but it seems like something could be worked out behind closed doors that would keep everyone happy and preserve any remaining stories the wreckage has to tell.

Quoting United787 (Reply 115): I have no expertise in oceanic salvage operations

Same here. However, my Pa was a crane operator, and spent several years running deck cranes on oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico - so I assure you, when I built Erector set model cranes, my rigging was Done Right.  

If they really have to use the equipment we've seen - which, unless I miss my guess, is designed for assisting fishing boats of questionable seaworthiness, which can be simply dragged aboard - I think it would be safest to bring the fuselage section to the surface, haul it up just until it starts showing a substantial weight gain, and then lash it tightly to the salvage vessel. Put a lot more harness on it than would seem reasonable - there's going to be a lot of movement and shifting. Then shut down the screws (the propellers would just be blasting water against the fuselage, counterproductive) and use another boat to tow the salvage ship to port. Make sure a fishing net is well wrapped around the fuselage in case any bodies are dislodged. Tow slowly. Once in port, a dock crane can lift the fuselage out of the water.

That's not the right way to do it, but I think it would be workable if they really don't have access to anything else.

By the way - what's the port for salvage ops? How far from the crash site?

[Edited 2015-01-26 12:29:09]

Quoting BuyantUkhaa (Reply 112): That rather looks like the horizontal stabiliser, also because the wing never got above the water (the rops broke 7m under the surface).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlk-eJoRLnc&feature=youtu.be

From the other side.

When it rises up, I believe I see the markings for where to walk on the wings during an emergency exit.

As seen here:

http://img.planespotters.net/photo/2...20-200_PlanespottersNet_225516.jpg

[Edited 2015-01-26 12:39:29]

I think it must be the wings.

[Edited 2015-01-26 13:03:11]

It's definitely the wingbox/center section they tried to drag over the stern.

In the original photos of the fuselage on the sea floor, the fuselage is already missing just in front of the wings.
It has already broken off.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnnnext/dam...45-01-airasia-0114-exlarge-169.jpg

That is what they tried to raise. It matches the video.

It is broken off at the C in CAN, and you can see that C rise up above the stern of the ship, along with the wing markings.

[Edited 2015-01-26 12:51:12]

http://api.ning.com/files/8W5ARlmXvR...Yqij4kPSrddufypyX/1K5A2295E533.jpg

The C in Can is just in front of the wings.

Back to the last few minutes of flight, I thought this might be interesting:

QZ8501 altitude v time, last few minutes of flight

It's just a timeline of altitude, based on the data reported by Mandala499, not accounting for groundspeed or distance..

Would be very interesting to get some approx altitude for the last minute here, as we know the flight continued (airborne) until almost 23:20... The last reported position was at 23:19:49, which implies a fairly steady descent rate, although of course with so little data, that's way too speculative.

Riv'

Zeke, no doubt the FDR is the most important piece... Until that gets released, we can only go ny the ADS-B data...
And as far as I'm concerned, even if this is accurate, we still need the FDR... of course  

Quoting Rivet42 (Reply 122): It's just a timeline of altitude, based on the data reported by Mandala499, not accounting for groundspeed or distance..

Nicely put... please add:
23:18:45 24025 (last valid with Baro Alt of FL235)
Impact is between 23:20:16 to 23:20:26, this was at the press conference somewhere... but I can't remember the exact time... it is between those two numbers.
You'd see that the final fall is roughly straight from at 23:19:03 / 34125 ft.

If you then look at the average vertical speeds between the points, then the vertical speeds become less spectacular and make more sense.
23:16:33 34000 -
23:16:52 33975 (79)
23:17:29 37075 5,027
23:17:43 38850 7,607
23:18:03 34125 (14,175)
23:18:45 24025 (14,429)
23:20:20 0 (15,174)

These numbers would not be too far off the numbers we saw in AF447... conveniently... *pretty numbers syndrome caution! consider with extreme caution!*

AF447 QZ8501
Elapsed Time 0:04:22 0:03:28
Time To Peak 0:01:04 0:00:51
Climb to peak 30.5 48.75 (FL)
Average Clb 2,859 5,735
Peak to Fall 379 367 (FL)
Fall Time 0:03:18 0:02:37
Average Fall 11,485 14,025

Given that QZ8501 was well below it's optimum altitude of FL380 and that AF447 was near it's optimum altitude at FL350... The difference in the climb and descent rates are not spectacular whatsoever in my opinion.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 123): If you then look at the average vertical speeds between the points, then the vertical speeds become less spectacular and make more sense.

Indeed; moreover, when I was flying last weekend from HEL to NGO, I noticed that the on-screen display of vertical speed fluctuated wildly even in mild turbulance, so any spot reading of vertical speed on its own is almost meaningless. Only the average values as you've calculated are of use.

Awaiting more data to update my graph (the last point is 23:18:45 as mentioned). Would love to fill in some of the gaps - there could be a lot hiding between the given points.

I've been trying to produce a 3-D graph of latitude v longitude v altitude, but my software is not up to the job. Sorry for that.

Riv'

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 123): 23:20:200 (15,174)

If you do have that data point, that's news to me!

In my post #83 above re. a/c total energy, I had surmised a steady V speed around -73m/s after 23:18:45, leading to a geo altitude of 2,840m at 23:19:46 and a crash about 40 sec later or 23:20:15.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 123): Impact is between 23:20:16 to 23:20:26, this was at the press conference somewhere...

I was not aware of that info. Average V speed may have decreased a bit due to increased drag at lower altitudes in the last 90 sec, or some late maneuver finally managed to slow the rate of descent before ditching.

Maybe investigators will at least share the exact time the FDR stopped.

. http://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-aira...litch-crew-095745376--finance.html

Exclusive: AirAsia probe vets possible computer glitch, crew response

Quoting DJM18 (Reply 126): Exclusive

Not so much. Read the last thread.

From the Singapore Strait Times today:

Quote

Indonesia's military on Tuesday halted search and recovery efforts for an AirAsia passenger jet that crashed last month killing all 162 people on board, navy officials said.

"The operation has been ongoing for 30 days so the joint team has been pulled out," Rear Admiral Widodo, head of the navy's western fleet, told reporters. "We apologise to the families of the victims. We tried our best to look for the missing victims."

The Airbus A320-200 vanished from radar screens on Dec 28, less than half way into a two-hour flight from Surabaya, Indonesia's second-biggest city, to Singapore. There were no survivors.

Seventy bodies have been recovered. The flight recorders have also been retrieved and are being analysed.

But days of rough weather and poor visibility have hampered navy divers' efforts to find more bodies and recover the fuselage of the plane. Widodo said no more victims had been found by divers involved in the search for the past two days.

Since Saturday, salvage teams have been using giant inflatable bags to try to raise the fuselage of the Airbus A320-200, which is lying in the sea at a depth of around 30 metres. At one point, they managed to lift the main body to the surface for two minutes before a sling holding it snapped.

The civilian National Search and Rescue Agency (Basarnas) said on Tuesday it may press on with the search for bodies. But its efforts will be hampered by the loss of the military’s large vessels and heavy recovery equipment.

“Perhaps we will do regular operations with help from fishermen and communities near the coast to find other victims,” Tatang Zaenuddin, Basarnas’s deputy of operations, told Reuters. The agency will hold a news conference on Wednesday.

Imam Sampurno, who lost four family members on Flight QZ8501, none of whom has been found, said he was resigned to their fate. “We can only hope they will continue to search, but if it’s stopped there is nothing I can do about it. I am resigned to it,” he said.

Despite the military’s withdrawal from the operation, Shukor Yusof, founder of aviation research firm Endau Analytics, said it would be surprising if authorities did not continue to salvage the aircraft.

“I think it would be very surprising if the salvage was not continued, knowing in fact that it’s there,” he told AFP. “I can’t think of any previous aircraft incidents where they haven’t tried to retrieve everything.”

End quote

I think when the final chapter is written on the wreck recovery, words like inept...grandstanding...pathetic and others less flattering terms will be used. There were as I recall, nearly a dozen countries who either sent or offered assets to the authorities who appear to have kept them at an arms length saying we can handle this. Sad to say, they couldn't. I hope they do a better job on recovering data from the FDR and CVR.

I am not surprised at all. This plane crashed in the equivalent of what Texan's call a "diver training pool" and after 1 month still missing are ...

2 engines
APU
Horizontal Stabilizer
Forward Fuselage including cockpit and electronics bays
Right wingtip /aileron
Left wing beyond pylon
Undercarriage

and 90+ unfortunate victims, with families resigned to the notion their loved ones likely won't be found.

  

There is absolutely no reason to halt salvage operations. This is just stupid. They need to allow all international aid in to their waters, and get that fuselage to the surface. Why haven't we seen any images of the cockpit yet? Where IS the cockpit?!??

This announcement..........I can't even begin to image the heartache it will be wreaking on the poor families who are waiting on having the remains of their loved ones returns so that they can find some closure.

Quoting md80fanatic (Reply 129): I am not surprised at all. This plane crashed in the equivalent of what Texan's call a "diver training pool" and after 1 month still missing are ..

Yeah, and even though, 19 of their 'divers' have apparently been sent to hospital with the bends. Seems pretty far-fetched and possibly just a strategy to garner their plans to cease salvaging some misguided understanding....

EDIT: Also very sad - I just read that Indonesia was required to search/salvage for 30 days. Yesterday was the 30th - today, they're done. Pathetic.

[Edited 2015-01-27 09:02:38]

Quoting md80fanatic (Reply 129): I am not surprised at all. This plane crashed in the equivalent of what Texan's call a "diver training pool" and after 1 month still missing are ...

Can we add qualified salvage diver to your resume?

Go on buddy, go get it.

A question related to some of the computer/parts swapping/system incompatibility ideas that have been mentioned.

What is the minimum functionality necessary for an A320 to actually take flight? If the aircraft were powered up, and some incompatibility existed between the various flight computers, such that it was incapable of operating in normal law - could the aircraft be taxied out and flown in alternate law from departure?

If it's possible to dispatch in alternate law, what's the likelihood of such a thing actually happening in the real world?

Quoting aerodog (Reply 128):

I'm pretty sure they're referring to the wider area search... I don't think they mean the whole recovery operation.

Well, I hope at least.

Quoting nm2582 (Reply 132): such that it was incapable of operating in normal law - could the aircraft be taxied out and flown in alternate law from departure?

My amateur's guess is "no." I would think any significant FBW system issue on a FBW airplane would mean no-go. The control laws are not MEL-able items since they aren't even items. They're functionality.

Possible explosive decompression? What could cause that?

http://www.straitstimes.com/news/asi...ely-caused-jet-explode-impact-offi

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 93): http://www.dropbox.com/s/q67265sv48q...?dl=0

Well, that certainly puts to rest any claim that one, or the other, or both wings broke off at the root ...

There are most definitely two wing roots still attached there, with at least enough wing to also include the painted escape pathway for the emergency exits.

Quoting liquidair (Reply 133): Quoting aerodog (Reply 128): I'm pretty sure they're referring to the wider area search... I don't think they mean the whole recovery operation. Well, I hope at least.

No - they mean everything. The military has been told to stand down and return to shore. They tried three or four times to raise the wreckage, several divers got sick, ropes bust, and they're done.

God bless the victims and their families - they're now having to hear this and deal with the fact that their loved ones' remains may never be recovered.

Quoting ryu2 (Reply 135): Possible explosive decompression?

Well, that didn't happen, so no need to speculate.

The plane hit the water and broke apart on impact.

Quoting ryu2 (Reply 135): Possible explosive decompression? What could cause that?

Jan 12 dateline? That's pretty stale. That was mentioned in this thread several parts back.

Quoting litz (Reply 136): Well, that certainly puts to rest any claim that one, or the other, or both wings broke off at the root ...

The fuselage is cracked just behind the wings, and broken off entirely just in front of them.

That explains the piece they tried to raise.

[Edited 2015-01-27 12:42:27]

Quoting ryu2 (Reply 135): Possible explosive decompression? What could cause that? http://www.straitstimes.com/news/asi...ely-caused-jet-explode-impact-offi

This sounds to me like more "noise" in leaks from the investigation. It is not tied to any available data source such as the FDR or the CVR. Furthermore, it would surprise me if they could come to such a conclusion so quickly based on the fuselage which has not been recovered in its totality and has in fact been mishandle in many different ways. I do wish they would make some public release of the preliminary investigation results given all the leaks that are in the press which do nothing but fuel continued speculation.

[Edited 2015-01-27 13:07:15]

[Edited 2015-01-27 13:07:41]

Quoting djm18 (Reply 141): This sounds to me like more "noise" in leaks from the investigation.

It's an old story, no one ever gave it much weight, and in the time since it was first published, it has not been supported by any evidence.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 140): The fuselage is cracked just behind the wings, and broken off entirely just in front of them.

In a flat pancake style impact, this is pretty much what you would expect to happen ...

It does show how impressively strong the wingbox is ...

Regarding the comments above about "explosive decompression" ... the only explosive decompression here was when it hit the water and basically squished itself (everything above the bottom impact point wants to keep going down) ...

Case in point ... the Mythbusters once dropped a car from a helicopter. When it hit the ground, the entire vehicle basically became about six inches thick.

that 11,000fpm decent rate is pretty tremendous; it would have hit the surface with almost unfathomable force.

I guess that the part of the plane referred to as the cockpit by the salvage crew, was probably the whole front section of the fuselage, from the wings forward.

Look up "Freediving", which is diving without airtanks, essentially. Wiki mentions this has been done since ancient Greece, where divers would descend to 30m, for 5 minutes, to gather sponges ... all on one breath. These days records exist to nearly 190m, also on one breath. So seriously, everything is bigger in Texas but a meter is a meter all over the world and as IADCA explains so well, diving to 30m is not something that requires specialists trained to Cousteau-ian standards to accomplish.

There is much to    about here, from the 90 minute delay in ATC reporting the aircraft missing, to the constant "poor diving condition" reports in lieu of every other marine weather service calling it optimal, to the manufacturer engineers on board the "recovery" boat while the tail section was mangled, to the head spokesman shaking his head in confidence that the cause of this accident was easily apparent from the CVR, yet now the so-called easy cause is being kept hush with no prelominary being made public after 30 days .... God, it all stinks. Now the search operation is called off, with 3 of the 4 corners of the plane that -every- investigation strives for are being left on the ocean floor, on purpose.

I feel sorry for the families, the victims, and am really sad that Mandala499 was caught in the middle of all this. Absolutely not cool.   

Quoting Trin (Reply 137): Quoting liquidair (Reply 133): Quoting aerodog (Reply 128): I'm pretty sure they're referring to the wider area search... I don't think they mean the whole recovery operation. Well, I hope at least. No - they mean everything. The military has been told to stand down and return to shore. They tried three or four times to raise the wreckage, several divers got sick, ropes bust, and they're done.

And here I was thinking that the Indonesian authorities in their handling of this accident put the Malaysian authorities in their handling of MH370 to shame... That still might be the case, but the Indonesian authorities are slowly catching up to the Malaysian authorities in terms of incompetence 

Quoting Trin (Reply 130): 19 of their 'divers' have apparently been sent to hospital with the bends.

19 experienced divers with the bends? Wow...

Were they not aware of the bends? I really doubt that...

So I wonder if the divers were pressured to stay down for longer or take extra risks???

Quoting md80fanatic (Reply 146): Look up "Freediving", which is diving without airtanks, essentially. Wiki mentions this has been done since ancient Greece, where divers would descend to 30m, for 5 minutes, to gather sponges ... all on one breath. These days records exist to nearly 190m, also on one breath. So seriously, everything is bigger in Texas but a meter is a meter all over the world and as IADCA explains so well, diving to 30m is not something that requires specialists trained to Cousteau-ian standards to accomplish.

Diving to 30 meters for a few minutes in calm and clear waters while doing nothing much down there is easy for a recreational diver. I've done it.

Diving to 30 meters for an extended period, in offshore water with currents, among wreckage, probably with poor visibility, while performing work, is a completely different matter. Yes, it does take very high standards.

Freediving in this instance seems counterproductive.