29erUSA187
Topic Author
Posts: 1277
Joined: Mon Apr 14, 2014 11:34 pm

Strange 787 Orders

Sat Jan 24, 2015 2:08 am

Hello all,
I was just browsing around newairplane.com, and I noticed that there of a number of strange orders from small airlines that ordered very small subfleets of 787's that are often listed for delivery as TBA or in 2019-later.
These airlines are...

KC - Orders for 3 - Delivery TBA
PX - Order for 1 - Delivery 2017
W3 - Orders for 7 - Delivery TBA
IZ - Orders for 4 - Delivery TBA
HY - Orders for 2 - Delivery TBA
PT - Orders for 2 - Delivery TBA

There are also orders listed from airlines that I could have sworn dropped their orders options
These airlines are...

AF - Orders for 12 - Delivery TBA
FI - Orders for 4 - Delivery TBA
DL - Orders for 18 - Delivery 2020
SU - Orders for 22 - Delivery TBA
BG - Orders for 4 - Delivery 2019-2020 (4 Options)
GF - Orders for 16 - Delivery 2019

Will these Airlines actually take their 787 orders? Or were they "ego" orders? I hope so, because I think it would be interesting to see an AF 787 or an Air Astana 787!
 
User avatar
GE9X
Posts: 271
Joined: Mon Jun 30, 2014 12:13 am

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sat Jan 24, 2015 2:44 am

The 12 Air France aircraft are part of a larger Air France–KLM order for 35 aircraft. AF is slated to receive its first 789 in October 2015.

[Edited 2015-01-23 18:45:19]
 
29erUSA187
Topic Author
Posts: 1277
Joined: Mon Apr 14, 2014 11:34 pm

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sat Jan 24, 2015 2:50 am

Awesome! The 789 will look beautiful in the AF white!
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 12833
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sat Jan 24, 2015 2:57 am

Quoting 29erUSA187 (Thread starter):
DL - Orders for 18 - Delivery 2020

DL has definitely not dropped their orders, as of yet.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Carpethead
Posts: 2618
Joined: Mon Aug 02, 2004 8:15 pm

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sat Jan 24, 2015 8:17 am

Quoting 29erUSA187 (Thread starter):

You have to remember not all airlines in the world are the size of AA, UA or BA, AF.
Some carriers only need two or three medium-sized aircraft to fulfill their long-haul flying.

As for airlines that have TBA or 2019 or later delivery dates, it has to do with the long line and large backlog for the type.
DL is unique that they were an early customer via NW but for some reason dramtically defered their delivery dates.
I am not what is so weird about SU or GF's orders, though GF seem to be overwhelmed by the big ME3 carriers.
 
PietPiloot
Posts: 73
Joined: Sun Aug 20, 2006 3:16 pm

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sat Jan 24, 2015 8:33 am

Quoting 29erUSA187 (Reply 2):

The 12 Air France aircraft are part of a larger Air France–KLM order for 35 aircraft. AF is slated to receive its first 789 in October 2015.

Not entirely correct. KLM is to receive its first B787-9 in October this year. Air France will receive it much later. It was part of a combined A350/B787 order. Air France will get the A350 first and then a number of B787's. KLM will fly the B787 first and receive its first A350 in 2019.
 
hkcanadaexpat
Posts: 4047
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2012 3:33 am

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sat Jan 24, 2015 9:24 am

Rather than bunch together all 787s, the discussion gets more interesting when you split the various models. The 789 is fine for a long time to come with no real "strange" orders on the books. The interesting one to look at is the 788 and the true quality of its back log.

By mid-Feb, when it deliveres 788 #230, Boeing will have reached the top of the bell curve on 788 deliveries as it will have delivered more frames (220 as of now) than it has in backlog (239 as of now). If one looks at that backlog in greater detail, it gets interesting with a number of "strange" or rather "not so secure" orders.

239 current backlog
minus 24 (in progress, excludes teens except for LN 11 confirmed to Korean Air)
minus 49 (allocated and to enter the FAL in 2015)
= 166 Backlog for FAL starting in 2016

If we look at that backlog, some question marks appear and that is without even considering the generally accepted principal that we should see some conversions to 789s.

Aeroflot: 22 (2016, in discussion with Boeing re: delivery schedule due to economic/political situation in Russia)
Delta: 18 (2020, likely converted to 737s or 777s)
Gulf Air: 16 (???, no imminent plans to take the frames)
LAN: 12 (2017, likely to see some/all converted to 789s)
Iraq: 10 (2019, contingent on Iraq fixing itself allowing profitable long-haul flights)
Avianca: 8 (2016)
Air Europa: 8 (2016)
ALAFCO: 8 (rumoured to be dead order)
Air Canada: 7 (2017, likely to see some/all covered to 789s)
Scoot: 6 (2016)
Royal Jordanian: 6 (???, delayed)
Air India: 5 (2016, rumoured to be in discussions re: conversion to 789s)
Oman: 4 (2016)
Biman Bangladesh: 4 (2019)
Qatar: 3 (2016)
Air Astana: 3 (2017)
Qantas/Jetstar: 3 (???, delayed; Jetstar long haul growth only once proves profitable)
JAL: 2 (2016)
American: 2 (2016)
LOT: 2 (2016, rumoured to be settled by teens)
RAM: 2 (2016)
TUI: 2 (2016)
Uzbekistan: 2 (2016)
AerCap: 2 (2018, going to NEO in Italy)
BBJ: 2 (???)
ANA: 1 (2016)
Kenyan: 1 (2016)
PrivatAir: 1 (2016)
Air Niugini: 1 (2017)
Icelandair: 1 (rumoured to be dead order)
Royal Brunei: 1 (???, delayed until it finds a route to put it on)
Unidentified: 1 (???)

As one can see, the backlog is certainly nothing to write home about. The large quality orders initially secured for the program (ANA, JAL, Air India, Qatar, United, etc...) are basically filled leaving a less than "AAA" rated backlog. If you remove the 2016 deliveries, the backlog really starts looking bleak. Just look at the 5 largest outstanding orders which count for almost half of the backlog. Aeroflot is under pressure due to Russia's situation, Delta/Gulf Air are no where near ready to take those frames if at all, LAN is almost certain to convert to 789s and Iraqi's odds of being out of the woods by 2019 not looking like a cake walk at this stage.

Obviously this does not include future orders or top ups (such as that rumoured by Hainan and Qatar) but the future of the 787 program is clearly in the 789 if you ask me!

A
 
User avatar
Navigator
Posts: 869
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2001 2:31 am

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sat Jan 24, 2015 11:15 am

Quoting 29erUSA187 (Thread starter):
Hello all,
I was just browsing around newairplane.com, and I noticed that there of a number of strange orders from small airlines that ordered very small subfleets of 787's that are often listed for delivery as TBA or in 2019-later.
These airlines are...

KC - Orders for 3 - Delivery TBA
PX - Order for 1 - Delivery 2017
W3 - Orders for 7 - Delivery TBA
IZ - Orders for 4 - Delivery TBA
HY - Orders for 2 - Delivery TBA
PT - Orders for 2 - Delivery TBA

There are also orders listed from airlines that I could have sworn dropped their orders options
These airlines are...

AF - Orders for 12 - Delivery TBA
FI - Orders for 4 - Delivery TBA
DL - Orders for 18 - Delivery 2020
SU - Orders for 22 - Delivery TBA
BG - Orders for 4 - Delivery 2019-2020 (4 Options)
GF - Orders for 16 - Delivery 2019

Will these Airlines actually take their 787 orders? Or were they "ego" orders? I hope so, because I think it would be interesting to see an AF 787 or an Air Astana 787!

I have been in this business for more than 30 years and I still dont know all codes by heart. Why dont you write it out?... Google etc is OK but time consuming...
747-400/747-200/L1011/DC-10/DC-9/DC-8/MD-80/MD90/A340/A330/A300/A310/A321/A320/A319/767/757/737/727/HS-121/CV990/CV440/S
 
User avatar
winterlight
Posts: 1432
Joined: Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:57 am

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sat Jan 24, 2015 11:21 am

PT shows as West Air Sweden when you mouse over it.
Question everything. Trust no-one.
 
PlaneInsomniac
Posts: 418
Joined: Tue Nov 20, 2007 7:34 am

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sat Jan 24, 2015 1:15 pm

Quoting Navigator (Reply 7):
I have been in this business for more than 30 years and I still dont know all codes by heart. Why dont you write it out?... Google etc is OK but time consuming...

Welcome to a.net  

Hover your mouse over the code, and a tooltip with the airline name will appear.

Just like in the last 10 years  
Am I cured? Slept 5 hours on last long-haul flight...
 
flightsimer
Posts: 1055
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2009 5:34 am

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sat Jan 24, 2015 4:18 pm

Quoting PlaneInsomniac (Reply 9):

You do realize more and more people view this site on tablets right? I hardly ever read it on my computer, almost always on my ipad...
Commercial / Airline Pilot
 
LTH
Posts: 129
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2014 5:49 pm

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sat Jan 24, 2015 5:16 pm

Just check this website for more detailed information and order history: http://www.pdxlight.com/787.htm or check the Boeing O&D sites.
The newairplane page of Boeing is simply serving a marketing purpose.

As with all airplane programs: We might see customers canceling, deferring or converting orders. And as the others already mentioned: Some airlines just need a couple of planes and not 20, 30 or 50+ longhaul jets.


LTH
 
LH648
Posts: 507
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:06 pm

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sat Jan 24, 2015 7:54 pm

As far as I remember, Air Astana postponed delivery of 787s for one year ('18 instead of '17) due to the last year's devaluation of the national currency, but still want to get the birds. So delay can be the reason for a TBA next to the order in Boeing's books.
 
AOIspotter
Posts: 9
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2015 11:01 am

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sat Jan 24, 2015 7:58 pm

Quoting 29erUSA187 (Reply 2):
Awesome! The 789 will look beautiful in the AF white!

Indeed, but our beloved AF white is something very quick to disappear!!!
Sorry, couldn't resist!!  

AOIspotter
 
ASA
Posts: 1106
Joined: Thu Dec 02, 2010 5:12 pm

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sat Jan 24, 2015 8:40 pm

Quoting 29erUSA187 (Thread starter):
There are also orders listed from airlines that I could have sworn dropped their orders options
These airlines are...

AF - Orders for 12 - Delivery TBA
FI - Orders for 4 - Delivery TBA
DL - Orders for 18 - Delivery 2020
SU - Orders for 22 - Delivery TBA
BG - Orders for 4 - Delivery 2019-2020 (4 Options)
GF - Orders for 16 - Delivery 2019

Can't speak for the other airlines ... but Biman Bangladesh (BG) decided to purchase 4 788s as part of the restructuring proposal set by Boeing itself, which called for 4 77Ws, 4 788s, and 4 738s ... for long haul, medium haul, and regional destinations. The 788s are meant to replace the 2 old A310s and 2 leased 772s (Egypt Air) that it currently operates.

Not sure if they will be converted to 789s later on ... but 4 medium haul aircrafts sound about right for Biman's capabilities and number of medium haul destinations in the middle east and far east. If anything, 4 77Ws (all of them have been delivered) may have been too much airplane for Biman ... not sure of the numbers, but I hear the planes remain underutilized.
 
bunumuring
Posts: 2531
Joined: Wed Jan 15, 2014 2:56 pm

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sat Jan 24, 2015 10:07 pm

Quoting PlaneInsomniac (Reply 9):

Quoting Navigator (Reply 7):
I have been in this business for more than 30 years and I still dont know all codes by heart. Why dont you write it out?... Google etc is OK but time consuming...

Hover your mouse over the code, and a tooltip with the airline name will appear.
Just like in the last 10 years  
Quoting flightsimer (Reply 10):
You do realize more and more people view this site on tablets right? I hardly ever read it on my computer, almost always on my ipad...

Hi flightsimer and Navigator,
I couldn't agree more.
It is one of my pet peeves about this website: people who only use two or three letter / number codes for airports and airlines. I have a fairly broad knowledge of these codes but still find it irritating when some backwater airline flying Caravans out of some Rocky Mountain airport I have never heard of is posted about using codes only. I use my iPad
exclusively for the Internet and 'simply hover the mouse over the code' as one poster stated displays arrogance (with the followup sentence) and a lack of technical awareness. Also a lack of basic courtesy to fellow members of our community. The proper and correct procedure should be to use the full name first, including in the title, and THEN use the code thereafter. That follows the conventions of grammar, and displays good manners.
Cheers,
Bunumuring.
I just wanna live while I'm alive!
 
doug_or
Posts: 3238
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2000 9:55 am

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sat Jan 24, 2015 10:15 pm

Quoting hkcanadaexpat (Reply 6):
Obviously this does not include future orders or top ups (such as that rumoured by Hainan and Qatar) but the future of the 787 program is clearly in the 789 if you ask me!

I suspect it will play out much like the 767-200/300. No skin off Boeing's back as they're all built on the same line (I assume).
When in doubt, one B pump off
 
ek241yyz
Posts: 283
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2009 11:28 pm

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:09 am

Quoting 29erUSA187 (Reply 2):

No, it's KLM getting their 789's first (2 this year). AF still has a bit of time to go.
Travel often; getting lost will help you find yourself.
 
deltal1011man
Posts: 5332
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:17 am

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sun Jan 25, 2015 2:13 am

Quoting Carpethead (Reply 4):
DL is unique that they were an early customer via NW but for some reason dramtically defered their delivery dates.

DL didn't want the terrible teens NW had on order. At the time deferring to 2020 would be about the time Delta needed some widebodys for 767 replacement.

Quoting Navigator (Reply 7):

I have been in this business for more than 30 years and I still dont know all codes by heart. Why dont you write it out?... Google etc is OK but time consuming...

Because its an aviation site?

Why should the majority of us that know the IATA and ICAO codes have to type everything out for the few that don't? Just as it is a pain for you to look it up on google, its a pain for me to type it out on my iPhone.
 
User avatar
7BOEING7
Posts: 3039
Joined: Fri Oct 12, 2012 5:28 pm

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sun Jan 25, 2015 2:24 am

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 18):
DL didn't want the terrible teens NW had on order.


NW/DL didn't have any terrible teens did they?.
 
deltal1011man
Posts: 5332
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:17 am

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sun Jan 25, 2015 2:25 am

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 19):

Pretty sure NW was going to get a few of the first 20. (IIRC the first ship was once of the first 5 off the line)
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 26690
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sun Jan 25, 2015 2:26 am

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 19):
NW/DL didn't have any terrible teens did they?.

LN003 and LN004 were originally planned to go to NW.
 
User avatar
Tigerguy
Posts: 566
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2010 2:28 am

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sun Jan 25, 2015 2:39 am

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 18):
Why should the majority of us that know the IATA and ICAO codes have to type everything out for the few that don't?

Because it's the nice thing to do. Believe it or not, we can still do nice things even if it might take a little more effort.   
Good night, and keep watching the skis. Uh, skies.
 
User avatar
kanban
Posts: 4005
Joined: Sun Jan 06, 2008 1:00 am

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sun Jan 25, 2015 3:57 am

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 18):
Why should the majority of us that know the IATA and ICAO codes have to type everything out for the few that don't? Just as it is a pain for you to look it up on google, its a pain for me to type it out on my iPhone.

please consider that the site's roll over definitions are dated as far as airline codes are concerned..
Also consider that one way to encourage new enthusiasts is to be open and considerate.. there are aspects of this site (Military in particular) where the acronyms are daunting.. and all to often looking them up is just a guessing game --- often times with hilarious results.

at least we are not burdened with texting lingo to decipher
 
deltal1011man
Posts: 5332
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:17 am

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sun Jan 25, 2015 4:27 am

Quoting Tigerguy (Reply 22):

Because it's the nice thing to do. Believe it or not, we can still do nice things even if it might take a little more effort.

I don't disagree being nice, but I also think that at some point the nice has to end. If I don't know a code I look it up.

but like I said, its nice for use who use phones fairly regularly to type as little as possible. IATA codes make that easy.

And where do you draw the line? airlines? airports? Aircraft?

Do we really need to type out that "Delta was working on a British Airways Boeing 747-400 at Delta's Heartsfield Jackson International Airport hangar"?

"DL was working on a BA 744 in ATL" seems so much simpler.


not being a smart ass btw. I just think that being part of an aviation based web site you are going to have some learning curves. One of the reasons I like posting here is because of the wide use and knowledge of IATA codes. It took me a while to catch on, never could figure out why Airtran was FL not AT, but i got it after a little bit.

Quoting kanban (Reply 23):

please consider that the site's roll over definitions are dated as far as airline codes are concerned..

It is rare that I use them because of this. If i see one I don't know I generally go right to google.

Quoting kanban (Reply 23):
Also consider that one way to encourage new enthusiasts is to be open and considerate..

I agree with that to a point. I think it is important for new people to show up, but at the same time guys and girls who have been around here for a long time shouldn't have to make big changes just because of new people.

No one stopped posting IATA codes when I showed up. I had to learn them or google them. I am happy I did that because it makes it much easier now because I am part of the industry. I can promise that for the most part all you do is use IATA or ICAO codes.

Quoting kanban (Reply 23):
there are aspects of this site (Military in particular) where the acronyms are daunting..

I don't think IATA codes are that hard. Yes even I run across some tiny airline that i have no idea who it is, but picking up the big boys isn't hard. Same deal for airports.

the .mil stuff is not something I really have to deal with so I wont comment.

Quoting kanban (Reply 23):

at least we are not burdened with texting lingo to decipher

something I am glad for.
 
29erUSA187
Topic Author
Posts: 1277
Joined: Mon Apr 14, 2014 11:34 pm

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sun Jan 25, 2015 5:42 am

Generally Wikipedia is good for airline codes. Right In the top right corner there is the airline logo, name, and 2/3 letter code
 
KD5MDK
Posts: 818
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2013 4:05 am

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sun Jan 25, 2015 6:20 am

I don't find it at all strange that airlines mostly want the 789.
 
User avatar
Tigerguy
Posts: 566
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2010 2:28 am

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sun Jan 25, 2015 6:57 am

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 24):
Do we really need to type out that "Delta was working on a British Airways Boeing 747-400 at Delta's Heartsfield Jackson International Airport hangar"?

"DL was working on a BA 744 in ATL" seems so much simpler.

I give no quarter for DL, BA, and ATL. I'd be a tad more forgiving for Uzbekistan Airways and the like. But to get us back on topic...

Quoting KD5MDK (Reply 26):
I don't find it at all strange that airlines mostly want the 789.

The big boys have trended in that direction. What about the smaller carriers that may or may not need the extra seats?
Good night, and keep watching the skis. Uh, skies.
 
bunumuring
Posts: 2531
Joined: Wed Jan 15, 2014 2:56 pm

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sun Jan 25, 2015 7:25 am

Quoting Tigerguy (Reply 22):

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 18):
Why should the majority of us that know the IATA and ICAO codes have to type everything out for the few that don't?

Because it's the nice thing to do. Believe it or not, we can still do nice things even if it might take a little more effort.   

Quoting kanban (Reply 23):

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 18):
Why should the majority of us that know the IATA and ICAO codes have to type everything out for the few that don't? Just as it is a pain for you to look it up on google, its a pain for me to type it out on my iPhone.

please consider that the site's roll over definitions are dated as far as airline codes are concerned..
Also consider that one way to encourage new enthusiasts is to be open and considerate.. there are aspects of this site (Military in particular) where the acronyms are daunting.. and all to often looking them up is just a guessing game ---
often times with hilarious results.

at least we are not burdened with texting lingo to decipher


Hi guys,
I state again, a compromise could be using the full name in the title and first use, then the abbreviation afterwards. A simple and easy solution I believe.
It is, despite all the bluster of posters like Deta1011man (and ummmm, I exclusively use my iPad and iPhone too, m8, wink) a problem with this website as it can discourage and irritate those not as familiar with the codes as others. Without attracting new subscribers, and keeping interested those who 'dip into' this website, it's long term future is not
assured.
In any case, it's common decency to assist others.
And also, these discussions have veered the thread wildly off topic.... Apologies.
Cheers,
Bunumuring.

[Edited 2015-01-24 23:36:28]
I just wanna live while I'm alive!
 
User avatar
seabosdca
Posts: 6583
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2007 8:33 am

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sun Jan 25, 2015 7:26 am

Quoting 29erUSA187 (Thread starter):
FI - Orders for 4 - Delivery TBA

Icelandair is an aircraft brokerage and leasing business that happens to operate some flights. They'll take the aircraft, and sell or lease them if they can't use them on their own flights. I think they might be able to use one on their Copenhagen route, but I find it hard to see how they'll use four.

Quoting 29erUSA187 (Thread starter):
DL - Orders for 18 - Delivery 2020

Somehow it's become conventional wisdom that these won't ever be taken. I can't for the life of me understand why. Delta has a giant fleet of older widebody aircraft that will need replacement in the next 15 years. They've ordered enough Airbuses to replace a lot, but not nearly all, of their older aircraft. 18 787s due as their 767-300ERs age out seems like a perfect fit, and they have plenty of time to decide whether they want those 787s as -8s, -9s, or -10s. Delta's had multiple chances to cancel this order without penalty, and they've never done it.

Quoting 29erUSA187 (Thread starter):
SU - Orders for 22 - Delivery TBA

Given the new Russian economic situation any Russia order is obviously a bit shaky, but I'd think there is less risk in this order than in Aeroflot's orders for larger aircraft (777 and A350).

Quoting 29erUSA187 (Thread starter):
BG - Orders for 4 - Delivery 2019-2020 (4 Options)

I don't see any reason these couldn't be financed and operated. Air traffic in Bangladesh should grow very substantially over the next decade or so.

Quoting 29erUSA187 (Thread starter):
GF - Orders for 16 - Delivery 2019

This one is a bit of a question mark. It's exactly the right aircraft for GF if they have the will to survive against ME3 competition. I'm not sure they do.

I do agree that the 788 is on shaky ground going forward, but conversions from 788 to 789 don't hurt Boeing one bit, and I don't think the backlog in general is as fragile as some commenters think.
 
deltal1011man
Posts: 5332
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:17 am

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sun Jan 25, 2015 7:49 am

Quoting bunumuring (Reply 28):
it's long term future is not
assured.

My last post on the subject,
This is just not even close to being true. Its kind of funny coming from someone who has been here less than two years telling someone who has been here 10 (and I still see myself as pretty junior compared to some that are here) that because we use IATA codes the web site might die.

It seems to be going about as strong as ever. Getting a little flyertalky at times but still going strong.

anyways, back to the 787....

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 29):

Somehow it's become conventional wisdom that these won't ever be taken. I can't for the life of me understand why. Delta has a giant fleet of older widebody aircraft that will need replacement in the next 15 years. They've ordered enough Airbuses to replace a lot, but not nearly all, of their older aircraft. 18 787s due as their 767-300ERs age out seems like a perfect fit, and they have plenty of time to decide whether they want those 787s as -8s, -9s, or -10s. Delta's had multiple chances to cancel this order without penalty, and they've never done it.

I think the fact that it still hasn't at least been changed points to them at least thinking about keeping it.
 
KD5MDK
Posts: 818
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2013 4:05 am

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sun Jan 25, 2015 7:54 am

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 29):
I think they might be able to use one on their Copenhagen route, but I find it hard to see how they'll use four.

You don't see a market for TATL low cost?
 
icelander
Posts: 75
Joined: Sat Dec 31, 2011 12:34 am

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:30 am

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 29):
Quoting 29erUSA187 (Thread starter):
FI - Orders for 4 - Delivery TBA

Icelandair is an aircraft brokerage and leasing business that happens to operate some flights. They'll take the aircraft, and sell or lease them if they can't use them on their own flights. I think they might be able to use one on their Copenhagen route, but I find it hard to see how they'll use four.

They sold on 3 of them to Norwegian. I can't imagine they will operate just the single plane.
 
User avatar
kelvin933
Posts: 451
Joined: Tue Aug 19, 2014 9:20 am

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:43 am

Quoting icelander (Reply 32):
Quoting seabosdca (Reply 29):
Quoting 29erUSA187 (Thread starter):
FI - Orders for 4 - Delivery TBA

Icelandair is an aircraft brokerage and leasing business that happens to operate some flights. They'll take the aircraft, and sell or lease them if they can't use them on their own flights. I think they might be able to use one on their Copenhagen route, but I find it hard to see how they'll use four.

They sold on 3 of them to Norwegian. I can't imagine they will operate just the single plane.

The fourth frame is to be delivered in 2016. Its rumored destination is Icelease, Icelandairs leasing operation.
The supposed lessee is Air Niugini.
“Nations have no permanent friends or allies, they only have permanent interests.”
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 26690
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sun Jan 25, 2015 1:04 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 29):
Delta has a giant fleet of older widebody aircraft that will need replacement in the next 15 years. They've ordered enough Airbuses to replace a lot, but not nearly all, of their older aircraft. 18 787s due as their 767-300ERs age out seems like a perfect fit, and they have plenty of time to decide whether they want those 787s as -8s, -9s, or -10s. Delta's had multiple chances to cancel this order without penalty, and they've never done it.

I'm now of the opinion that the 787 order will be converted to 737 MAX and/or NSA. The A330-800 and A330-900 will become the 767 family replacement and the A350-900 and A350-1000 will become the 747 and 777 replacement.
 
NYCAdvantage
Posts: 109
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2009 3:01 pm

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sun Jan 25, 2015 3:46 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 34):
Quoting seabosdca (Reply 29):

I'm now of the opinion that the 787 order will be converted to 737 MAX and/or NSA. The A330-800 and A330-900 will become the 767 family replacement and the A350-900 and A350-1000 will become the 747 and 777 replacement.

Northwest ordered 18 plus 50 options, been a launch customer, correct me if I'm wrong being a launch customer gives you some lower price advantages, at the time when Delta differed the order to 2020.
Wasn't Boeing in a Hell hole with all source of problems, that is without talking compensations to the airlines?
If I remember correctly the order change at the time was seen to some people as a nice agreedment between DL and Boeing, they left the slots open so that Boeing could fill orders to other airlines, and did not have to pay compensation to DL, in other words Boeing save money in compensations and Delta get the plane when they wanted at a desirable price and more importantly not part of the first 20. Let just say IF that was the deal then, Why will Delta be converting to 737 Max?
When they may get a better all around plane than even today's B787 at a 2005 price?
 
User avatar
seabosdca
Posts: 6583
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2007 8:33 am

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sun Jan 25, 2015 6:34 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 34):
I'm now of the opinion that the 787 order will be converted to 737 MAX and/or NSA. The A330-800 and A330-900 will become the 767 family replacement and the A350-900 and A350-1000 will become the 747 and 777 replacement.

If this is the goal, shouldn't Delta have canceled the order already, since they should be able to get the deposits back given Boeing's 787 delays? What advantage is there in letting Boeing keep the deposits? I can't imagine that would lead to more favorable terms on a 737 MAX order.

Tthe A330-900 isn't an ideal 767-300ER replacement on every route, and it would seem very odd to me to give up existing 787-8 orders and turn around and order A330-800s.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 26690
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:54 pm

Quoting NYCAdvantage (Reply 35):
Northwest ordered 18 plus 50 options, been a launch customer, correct me if I'm wrong being a launch customer gives you some lower price advantages, at the time when Delta differed the order to 2020.

Richard Anderson has called the 787 an "expensive airplane" which leads me to believe that DL has given up their original launch pricing and would now be required to pay much closer to "market rates". Average list over the decade has risen $72 million, so I could see DL looking at tens, if not scores, of more millions per frame now than what NW had negotiated.

Also, if DL still had preferential pricing on the 787-8, chances are they had it on the 787-9, and yet they went with the A330-900 and A350-900. Airbus would also have to discount 60% off list just to match the list price of the 787-9 in 2006. Taking in account what DL's conversion price probably was, Airbus would lose their shirt trying to match it with the A350-900. Heck, they'd lose it trying to match it with the A330-900. While Airbus was matching 787 RFPs with the A350 during the early days of the program, the order book today is more than robust enough that they would never give that kind of discount to anyone today.



Quoting seabosdca (Reply 36):
If this is the goal, shouldn't Delta have canceled the order already, since they should be able to get the deposits back given Boeing's 787 delays? What advantage is there in letting Boeing keep the deposits? I can't imagine that would lead to more favorable terms on a 737 MAX order.

I believe it would. DL has plenty of 737-800s, 737-900ERs and A321-200s arriving so they don't need to jump right now on the MAX. They could also be waiting to see what NSA has in store for a 757-200 and 757-300 replacement and heck, they could even order new 767-300ERs.



Quoting seabosdca (Reply 36):
Tthe A330-900 isn't an ideal 767-300ER replacement on every route, and it would seem very odd to me to give up existing 787-8 orders and turn around and order A330-800s.

The A330-800 makes a lot more sense than the 787-8 since they already have a large Airbus A330 widebody fleet in place with a lot more A330s and A350s coming. The A330-800 leverages all of that, while the 787-8 requires a significant amount of expensive ancillaries.
 
NYCAdvantage
Posts: 109
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2009 3:01 pm

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:03 pm

[quote=Stitch,reply=37]

Richard Anderson has called the 787 an "expensive airplane" which leads me to believe that DL has given up their original launch pricing and would now be required to pay much closer to "market rates". Average list over the decade has risen $72 million, so I could see DL looking at tens, if not scores, of more millions per frame now than what NW had negotiated.

Also, if DL still had preferential pricing on the 787-8, chances are they had it on the 787-9,

I remember that, but the issue here is that Delta wanted to buy the 789, they didn't want 77LR nor 77W, what ever preferential pricing is on 788 not the 789.
And even thou they went with A350 If we are to believe Boeing it was more of delivery time what tilt the balance to Airbus, now that said, I believe Delta will get some 788, will they get 789? that's something else.
 
User avatar
KarelXWB
Posts: 26968
Joined: Sun Jul 15, 2012 6:13 pm

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Mon Jan 26, 2015 9:22 am

Quoting hkcanadaexpat (Reply 6):
Obviously this does not include future orders or top ups (such as that rumoured by Hainan and Qatar)

Thanks for making this great overview hkcanadaexpat.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
deltal1011man
Posts: 5332
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:17 am

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Mon Jan 26, 2015 10:11 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 37):

Also, if DL still had preferential pricing on the 787-8, chances are they had it on the 787-9, and yet they went with the A330-900 and A350-900. Airbus would also have to discount 60% off list just to match the list price of the 787-9 in 2006. Taking in account what DL's conversion price probably was, Airbus would lose their shirt trying to match it with the A350-900. Heck, they'd lose it trying to match it with the A330-900. While Airbus was matching 787 RFPs with the A350 during the early days of the program, the order book today is more than robust enough that they would never give that kind of discount to anyone today.

I think the question becomes here why did Delta order the 359. Was it price or was it time.

From what I have heard time had a lot more to do with it. Delta simply couldn't wait 3-4 years to get 787s.....





*not to say that price didn't play a part in it, I am just saying I wouldn't be shocked to learn the 787 was a better price but just to late.....
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 26690
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:44 pm

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 40):
I think the question becomes here why did Delta order the 359. Was it price or was it time.

I think it was time and capability - both for the A330-900 and A350-900.

And once that decision was made, that made the 787 an outlier for DL and they therefore are not going to operate it.
 
bunumuring
Posts: 2531
Joined: Wed Jan 15, 2014 2:56 pm

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:14 pm

I agree that Gulf Air's orders seem ambitious. I hope they maintain the order and use them wisely to expand and flourish.

Aeroflot's order seems unsteady only because of the political and economic climate. I think it will go ahead, maybe modified to include more larger Dreamliner variants. I actually think the A350 order is possibly more uncertain due to political considerations.

Biman Bangladesh's order will surely be fulfilled as that airline and nation develop further.

I am not as familiar with the airline as many posters are here, but in my opinion Delta's order will also surely be taken up. As others have stated, the recent Airbus orders aren't sufficient to cover all that needs replacing over the next decade or so. The Dreamliner would compliment the A330s (ceos and neos), A350s and 777s well, in my opinion. And that 2005 pricing should be a killer! 15 years between ordering and delivery (assuming 2020 as currently stated) would surely be some kind of record however, wouldn't it?

Air Niugini has been reported in the Australian press towards the end of last year as trying to raise the funds necessary to purchase a second Dreamliner 8. Privatization, either fully or partially, was suggested as the best course of action. I'm not sure what the funding arrangements are for the first and so far only Dreamliner 8 on order, nor details of it's delivery schedule, but I have little doubt that the airline could efficiently employ two aircraft and possibly a few more with careful expansion.

Cheers,
Bunumuring.
I just wanna live while I'm alive!
 
na
Posts: 9728
Joined: Sun Dec 12, 1999 3:52 am

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:16 pm

Quoting 29erUSA187 (Thread starter):
Hello all,
I was just browsing around newairplane.com, and I noticed that there of a number of strange orders from small airlines that ordered very small subfleets of 787's that are often listed for delivery as TBA or in 2019-later.
These airlines are...

KC - Orders for 3 - Delivery TBA
PX - Order for 1 - Delivery 2017
W3 - Orders for 7 - Delivery TBA
IZ - Orders for 4 - Delivery TBA
HY - Orders for 2 - Delivery TBA
PT - Orders for 2 - Delivery TBA

There are also orders listed from airlines that I could have sworn dropped their orders options
These airlines are...

AF - Orders for 12 - Delivery TBA
FI - Orders for 4 - Delivery TBA
DL - Orders for 18 - Delivery 2020
SU - Orders for 22 - Delivery TBA
BG - Orders for 4 - Delivery 2019-2020 (4 Options)
GF - Orders for 16 - Delivery 2019

Could you please write the airlines names down? AF, DL, ok, but most people wont know the two-letter codes of smaller airlines on the other side of the planet!
 
User avatar
seabosdca
Posts: 6583
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2007 8:33 am

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Mon Jan 26, 2015 4:36 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 37):
Richard Anderson has called the 787 an "expensive airplane" which leads me to believe that DL has given up their original launch pricing and would now be required to pay much closer to "market rates".

I know we've discussed this before, but I can't remember from those discussions whether there was anything else driving your thinking that DL lost its preferential pricing when it deferred the 2005 order. I'm still not sure I understand why it would have.

I thought when Anderson made the comment you quote he was talking in the context of Delta's recent RFP, where it seems clear that Boeing couldn't compete with Airbus on either pricing or availability. I'm not sure it refers to the 2005 order.

Your line of thinking makes a lot of sense if Delta did lose NW's launch pricing, but if it didn't, then not taking these 787s would seem insane.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 26690
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Mon Jan 26, 2015 4:57 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 44):
I know we've discussed this before, but I can't remember from those discussions whether there was anything else driving your thinking that DL lost its preferential pricing when it deferred the 2005 order. I'm still not sure I understand why it would have.

It's speculation on my part, I admit. We know the contracts have annual price escalation clauses in them to take into account inflation and rising list prices between the time the contract is signed and the planes are delivered (which can be years). It also just strikes me as undesirable on Boeing's part to have a contract with a purchase price from a decade ago. It would encourage airlines to place speculative orders and defer them for years until they actually needed the plane and that would play havoc with the OEM's production schedules.

We also have the anecdotal evidence from the QF 787-9 thread that their contract pricing from 2005 is at risk if they do not exercise their options and purchase rights this year. And AA's MoU required them to commit to an order 18 months before each delivery position came due or they would lose the slot (and, I expect, whatever pricing they had).



Quoting seabosdca (Reply 44):
I thought when Anderson made the comment you quote he was talking in the context of Delta's recent RFP, where it seems clear that Boeing couldn't compete with Airbus on either pricing or availability. I'm not sure it refers to the 2005 order.

I'm speculating that NW (or DL, when they renegotiated the contract for the 2010 deferral) had a clause that allowed them to convert the 787-8 to 787-9. So if they had 2005-level pricing on the 787-8, they should have at least 2010-pricing on the 787-9. and if Boeing could not match Airbus' 2015 pricing with 2010 (or earlier) pricing, well then the 787 order really is dead.



Quoting seabosdca (Reply 44):
Your line of thinking makes a lot of sense if Delta did lose NW's launch pricing, but if it didn't, then not taking these 787s would seem insane.

It depends on what kind of deal Airbus is willing to make and how, even with 2005 pricing, the total costs of adding the 787 to the fleet comes out when you add ancillaries like training, maintenance, spares, support and such (all those costs are already in place for the A330neo and the A350 will leverage the A330's training base and probably some of the maintenance and spares).
 
User avatar
N328KF
Posts: 5946
Joined: Tue May 25, 2004 3:50 am

RE: Strange 787 Orders

Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:16 pm

Quoting doug_Or (Reply 16):
I suspect it will play out much like the 767-200/300. No skin off Boeing's back as they're all built on the same line (I assume).

That is true, but the 787-8 and 787-9/1-0 have a fair number of differences. These don't just amount to changes that allow the 787-9/-10 to haul more and fly further. Eventually, I expect you'll see Boeing backlit a number of the -9/-10 improvements to the -8.
“In the age of information, ignorance is a choice.”
-Donny Miller

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos