* MAINLINE DELIVERIES *

- 319: +4 Q1, +3 Q2
- 321: +10 Q1, +10 Q2, +8 Q3, +7 Q3
- 738: +4 Q1, +6 Q2, +3 Q3, +5 Q4
- 77W: +1 Q1, +1 Q4
- 788: +3 Q1, +3 Q2, +3 Q3, +3 Q4

* MAINLINE RETIREMENTS *

- 320: -7 Q1, -2 Q2
- 752: -10 Q1, -10 Q2, -14 Q3, -3 Q4
- 762: -4 Q1, -2 Q2
- 763: -1 Q1, -1 Q2, -7 Q3
- S80: -7 Q1, -23 Q2, -13 Q3

* MAINLINE FLEET COUNT AT YE2015 *

- 319 = 125 (+7)
- 320 = 55 (-9)
- 321 = 174 (+35)
- 332 = 15
- 333 = 9
- 738 = 264 (+18)
- 752 = 69 (-37) (includes 8 aircraft already stored)
- 762 = 0 (-6)
- 763 = 49 (-9)
- 772 = 47
- 77W = 18 (+2)
- 788 = 12 (+12)
- E90 = 20
- S80 = 96 (-43) (includes 2 aircraft already stored)
- Total = 953 (-30) (includes 10 aircraft already stored)



* REGIONAL DELIVERIES *

- CR9: +7 Q1, +11 Q2, +3 Q3
- E75: +7 Q1, +4 Q2, +9 Q3, +9 Q4

* REGIONAL RETIREMENTS *

- DH1: -1 Q1
- ERD: -11 Q1, -5 Q2, -4 Q3, -1 Q4

* REGIONAL FLEET COUNT AT YE2015 *

- CR2 = 138
- CR7 = 61
- CR9 = 98 (+21)
- DH1 = 26 (-1)
- DH3 = 11
- E70 = 20
- E75 = 109 (+29)
- ERD = 13 (-21)
- ER4 = 118
- Total = 594 (+28)


Some interesting things to point out about this fleet plan:

* 788 deliveries / 763 retirements:

This year, the 788 deliveries are not going to represent (like the 20 77W did), a net increase in AA's widebody fleet (net gain, 3 frames). This means that we will probably see them, for now, replacing current 763 routes.

However, things will change from 2016. The fact that 35 out of 58 763s have been repainted, and that ~30 of them are getting the new J class, indicates that next year there could be much less 763 retirements while the 787s keep coming, allowing the launch of new long haul routes (winter 2015-2016). Besides, the 772s are underused while they get all the mods.

* Airbus:

Out of the 35 A321s, 12 should be for US and 23 for AA. The US Airways 330 that was damaged some months ago is apparently keeped.

* CR9s / E75s:

The company says that it has taken delivery of 16 CR9s for PSA in 2014 and that 21 are due in 2015, so either Mesa or PSA will get 2 new CR9 not previously planned.

The 29 new E75 operators should be: 4 for Republic, 20 for Compass, 5 for Envoy.

* Mainline fleet count:

AA/US have gained 13 mainline aircraft in 2014 and are losing 30 in 2015, so the 2 year reduction is only 17 aircraft, which are very few if we take into account that a lot of 160 seats 738s are replacing 140 seats S80s, and that a lot of mainline S80 flights have been replaced by CR9s and E75s (particularly from ORD).

[Edited 2015-01-27 14:47:38]

953 aircraft!? Good God! And with 594 regionals!? That's one hell of a fleet!

surely it is easier to launch and establish new routes when fuel prices are low
then when they go back up.

pity AA insists on only talking expansion NOT doing.

Great spreadsheet...thanks for posting   

Quoting realsim (Thread starter): The 29 new E75 operators should be: 4 for Republic, 20 for Compass, 5 for Envoy.

I was surprised at the 5 for Envoy. I didn't think they would be getting their hands on any of those.

restarting LAX routes

and saying its going to be a transpacific hub whith no expansion is not much at all.

JFK?? AA is far from what it used to be...

Quoting Kashmon (Reply 6):

He lumped many 2013-2015 expansion all into a single post, and I can't count how many are seasonal and/or regional

Regarding the fleet, I'm seeing -30 for mainline but +28 for regional ? And people complain UA does too much regional ??

sounds very similar to when a CX CEO talks about expansion.

this year CEO says CX is moderately expanding- launches/launching 5-6 new routes.

for the past 2 decades CX has supposedly MASSIVLY expanded according to the CEO but adding approximately 1 city each year...

AA is just talking nonsense about expansion.

It is almost like they have decided to become a central/east coast airline
with a sprinkle of flights to the west...

Quoting Kashmon (Reply 8): It is almost like they have decided to become a central/east coast airlinewith a sprinkle of flights to the west...

Um no...

Quoting realsim (Thread starter): This year, the 788 deliveries are not going to represent (like the 20 77W did), a net increase in AA's widebody fleet (net gain, 3 frames). This means that we will probably see them, for now, replacing current 763 routes.

Or allowing more 772 to be updated.
Not a huge gain, but be in mind that AA will receive 2 B77W which means 5 new widebodies.

Quoting KGRB (Reply 10):

I feel like that route map just proves my point.

Add international flights and it would prove my point even more...

Quoting a380787 (Reply 7): He lumped many 2013-2015 expansion all into a single post, and I can't count how many are seasonal and/or regional

The quote was

Quoting Kashmon (Reply 2): AA insists on only talking expansion NOT doing

which is not borne out by the facts.

Quoting Kashmon (Reply 6): JFK?? AA is far from what it used to be...

So what? It's probably a nicely profitable operation which is what counts these days.

Quoting Kashmon (Reply 6): restarting LAX routes and saying its going to be a transpacific hub whith no expansion is not much at all.

A transpac hub @ LAX requires 2 things:

1. Appropriately configured aircraft - that's what happening with the 772's at the moment;
2. Appropriate capacity aircraft - which AA will have the 787's coming on line.

With the lower capacity 787's and more appropriately configured 777's, AA will have the right aircraft to build out a hub if that's the goal. In the mean time they appear to be keen on adding domestic and narrowbody international flying which, as long as it is profitable, all adds builds pax, connections and presence @ LAX.

Quoting realsim (Thread starter): - 752: -10 Q1, -10 Q2, -14 Q3, -3 Q4

Wow -37 Planes? Isn't that like half the fleet? Its gonna be like a 757-appocalypse this year! Such as shame. Sadly the S80 isn't fairing too well this year either....

Just curious, what role will the E190 play at the new American? Will they remain in the fleet for long? Is it possible AA could order more? As I undddrand it, the 190 is considered a mainline aircraft due to pilot scope clauses? Thanks for any info. Cheers!

you do realise AA has not even ordered enough 787's to replace the 767 fleet right!!

no expansion happening.

AA cannot say they are expanding when they are downsizing in the name of profitability.

by your logic JetBlue and DL are running loss making operations at JFK.

from the past 2 decades the AA strategy is basically acquire airlines and then slowly hand over markets to competitors...

apasrt form DFW and Miami - we don't give a damn about the other hubs.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 7): Regarding the fleet, I'm seeing -30 for mainline but +28 for regional ? And people complain UA does too much regional ??

As I stated in the first post, the net loss in mainline aircraft is 17, given that in 2014 they added 13 aircraft. I do not have the exact numbers in this computer, but AA has been growing its mainline fleet since 2009. This is because they needed to compete against the merged DL and later UA, so they needed more planes and for some years they retired 2 S80 for every 3 738 delivered. In fact, some years ago there were under 600 mainline aircraft and now there are over 630.

Regarding the regional fleet, due to scope restrictions, L-AA had one of the smallest regional feed network in relation to their mainline fleet, only compared to CO's. In fact, AA+US, despite having the largest mainline fleet, have a similar regional fleet than DL and smaller than UA. For years, while DL, UA and US already had dozens of +70 seats RJ, AA only had 25 and was only allowed 22 more before the scope was changed. This is why AA is growing its regional fleet and why they don't have to retire so many 50 seaters yet. Since the scope was changed, L-AA has added or is going to add almost 30 CR2s and 150 large RJs, while only retiring around 100 ERJs.

[Edited 2015-01-27 18:25:42]

Quoting airplaneboy (Reply 16): Will they remain in the fleet for long?

They've expressed no signs of wanting to get rid of them as of late, and I'm inclined to believe that they'll have a nice place in the AA fleet for a while to come.

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 14): So what? It's probably a nicely profitable operation which is what counts these days.

  

Quoting a380787 (Reply 7): He lumped many 2013-2015 expansion all into a single post, and I can't count how many are seasonal and/or regional Regarding the fleet, I'm seeing -30 for mainline but +28 for regional ? And people complain UA does too much regional ??

When looking at the regionals in this light, we should look at the percentage of the fleet that are 50-seaters. That percentage would be MUCH higher at UA than it is at AA.

Quoting 29erUSA187 (Reply 15): Wow -37 Planes? Isn't that like half the fleet? Its gonna be like a 757-appocalypse this year! Such as shame. Sadly the S80 isn't fairing too well this year either....

Sad but true. Certainly from a spotting perspective (and from a pax POV for many), it is nothing but bad news as it relates to AA's narrowbody fleet. Replace favorites like the RB211 757 and classic MD80 for more 738s and A321s?   

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 4): Yeah, I mean, seriously. Look at all this not expansion of the route map this year. DFW-PEK/HKG/PVG JFK-BHX/EDI LAX-ATL/GDL/TPA/SAT/YVR/YEG MIA-FRA/MTY/VCP/CAP/SAT/AUS/MCI/SLC

For an airline the size of AA, that's peanuts. And aren't some of those seasonal routes?

Quoting MesaFlyGuy (Reply 19):

What are the percentages ? Do u know the numbers ?

Quoting Kashmon (Reply 17): you do realise AA has not even ordered enough 787's to replace the 767 fleet right!! no expansion happening.

You do realize that AA is also replacing 767s with 777s on some routes such as MIA-SCL? It's not a one-for-one replacement of the 767 by the 787.

Quoting Kashmon (Reply 17): apasrt form DFW and Miami - we don't give a damn about the other hubs.

You also realize that the majority of the management at the new AA is US Airways, right? So it's not their philosophy to just forsake every hub that isn't MIA or DFW. And, if that's what you think their motto is, please show me which routes out of CLT or PHX they've cut since the merger? Unless I missed something, they haven't cut any routes from CLT or PHX, and have only moved ORD-ART to PHL-ART, and PHL-EDI to JFK-EDI, but I don't remember much else.

Quoting Kashmon (Reply 17): you do realise AA has not even ordered enough 787's to replace the 767 fleet right!! no expansion happening.

The 787 order was placed by L-AA, which has a long history of ordering less aircraft than needed and later exercise more options (and there are 58 787 of those). For example, AA first ordered only 2 (two!) 77W but is going to have 20, all of which, by the way, have been net widebody expansion.

Quoting Kashmon (Reply 17): from the past 2 decades the AA strategy is basically acquire airlines and then slowly hand over markets to competitors... apasrt form DFW and Miami - we don't give a damn about the other hubs.

First, L-US is running the show now, not L-AA.

Regarding the cornerstone strategy, AA has added dozens of destinations from LAX in the past 5 years. It was the first US airline to add LAX-PVG, and is adding a 2nd daily LHR flight. Yes, I'm disappointed because I would have expected LAX-ICN or HKG to be already announced, but I'm sure that we will see them in a not too distant future. AA is building a strong domestic and regional network, has added a lounge in its regional "terminal", is upgrading the regional feed and reconfiguring the widebody aircraft, all before the longhaul expansion happens.

NYC is also being taken cared of, but there are, of course, the slot limitations.

ORD is the only hub which cannot be enthusiastic for now. But AA is not shrinking there neither.

Quoting MesaFlyGuy (Reply 24): You do realize that AA is also replacing 767s with 777s on some routes such as MIA-SCL? It's not a one-for-one replacement of the 767 by the 787.

Not only MIA-SCL, but also MIA-GIG, DFW-SCL, MIA-MAD/BCN, and others operated by 767 (soon for example JFK-GIG)
As some routes got upgauged to 77W, some 772 become available and AA decided to use some of them on previous 763 routes.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 23): Quoting MesaFlyGuy (Reply 19): What are the percentages ? Do u know the numbers ?

Right now the United Express fleet includes 343 50-seaters. That works out to 52.93% of the United Express fleet

At the same time, the combined US/AA regional fleet includes 272 50 seaters out of 585 aircraft, working out to about 46.49% of the regional fleet.

Now, if we include mainline, United's fleet is 25.52% 50-seater, whereas American's combined fleet is 17.54% 50-seater.

So I did overestimate the difference a little, but the fact still stands that United flies a greater percentage of 50-seaters than American.

Just so we know, United's current total fleet is 48.21% regional, while American's current total fleet is 37.71% regional. (Neither of these factor in standing orders).

We also know that United, as of late, has been increasing their fleet of large RJs which is a pleasant sight, as is American.

[Edited 2015-01-27 18:26:28]

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 25): CLT-MAN/LIS/BRU/GRU/GIG. Though, honestly, those first three were basically PMUS saying, "we have extra widebody capacity, what do we do with it?!?"

Whoops, did forget about those. However, my point still stands that AA cares about more than just DFW and MIA.

Quoting 29erUSA187 (Reply 15): Wow -37 Planes? Isn't that like half the fleet? Its gonna be like a 757-appocalypse this year! Such as shame. Sadly the S80 isn't fairing too well this year either....

It will end the year with 69 frames, so the time when the 757 will only be used on TATL, Hawaii and South America isn't far away.

When AA ordered the 260 Airbus and the breakdown between A319s and A321s wasn't known, everybody thought that at first a lot of 319s would come to replace the S80, and later tons of 321NEOs to replace the 752s. However, when it was announced that 65 of the CEOs were 321s, it was clear that AA wasn't going to retire the S80 fleet first and then the 752 fleet, but both at the same time.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 27): Not only MIA-SCL, but also MIA-GIG, DFW-SCL, MIA-MAD/BCN, and others operated by 767 (soon for example JFK-GIG)

When will the 777 be replacing the 767 on JFK-GIG? Will it be a 777-200 or 777-300? Thanks.

Quoting jfkgig (Reply 31):

It'll be a -200, beginning June 3rd.

AA has enough new widebodies coming and flexibility with retirement to expand long haul flying but if the market isn't growing they have to take that business from someone. And I don't see that happening to any large extent.

Quoting MesaFlyGuy (Reply 24):

lets be honest
the US hubs are not as important as
JFK/LAX/ORD

one thing is common from both the managements

DFW/MIA are more important than JFK/LAX/ORD and you can see that from the types of routes they had.
when you do not even order enough 787's to replace your 767 fleet
you cannot lie and tell people you are expanding with a pacific LAX hub...

unless your airline is so pathetically managed now that the 767's are terribly underused...

and based on the beautiful route map put up to somehow disprove my point

AA is clearly avoiding the west coast...

adding 4 -5 new destinations just doesn't cut it as major expansion and creation of a hub

Quoting Kashmon (Reply 34): lets be honest the US hubs are not as important as JFK/LAX/ORD

I wholeheartedly and very respectfully disagree.

CLT gives them a huge presence in the Southeast, with a strong domestic hub in a good location.
PHL gives them a great transatlantic gateway at an airport where they have little competition and plenty of room to play with.
DCA is the key Washington D.C. airport.
PHX is the only hub that I can see being less important than the others. It is kind of in the shadow of LAX, but is a good connecting hub for the region.

Quoting Kashmon (Reply 34): when you do not even order enough 787's to replace your 767 fleet you cannot lie and tell people you are expanding with a pacific LAX hub...

I'm still very confused as to your fixation on this one (non)fact. They are only retiring about half of the 767 fleet. Plus the fact that, as mentioned above, the 777s are also playing a part in the 767 replacement and of course the a350s that are on order will help out as well.

Quoting Kashmon (Reply 34): unless your airline is so pathetically managed now that the 767's are terribly underused...

I honestly don't even know how to respond to that. I don't mean it disrespectfully or confrontationally; I just legitimately have no response to this.

Quoting MesaFlyGuy (Reply 24): You do realize that AA is also replacing 767s with 777s on some routes such as MIA-SCL? It's not a one-for-one replacement of the 767 by the 787.

With all due respect, don't feed the troll.

so instead of the A350's being used for US expansion from their hubs,
instead of the 777 BEING USED FOR expansion
they are going to replace the 767...

so more different planes are going to be used to replace the 767- you are still not making your case that AA has enough planes on order for expansion.

now if the AA order was doubled, I could believe it.

also I agree, I do not think those hubs are unimportant

just that DFW and MIA are clearly more important to the management considering for decades and even last year they have had most of the expansion.

Quoting LDVAviation (Reply 37): Quoting MesaFlyGuy (Reply 24): You do realize that AA is also replacing 767s with 777s on some routes such as MIA-SCL? It's not a one-for-one replacement of the 767 by the 787. With all due respect, don't feed the troll.

Good point, I'm done now.  

I am sure the as the SOC comes into existence, mainline flying in PHX will decrease and express will increase. If I had to guess, DFW and MIA will provide the regional aircraft and the mainline flying will shift some more over there. Either way though PHX will still be a hub and provides some better options than LAX and allows for expansion without using more premium gate space (LAX space is more valuable that PHX)

Quoting LDVAviation (Reply 37): With all due respect, don't feed the troll

Quoting MesaFlyGuy (Reply 39): Good point, I'm done now.

  

MAH4546: You are a well respected, highly regarded member of this forum. Don't pay any attention to those who fill the forum with unsupported "facts" and hyperbole. Thank you for your always accurate, insightful posts.

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 24): CLT-MAN/LIS/BRU/GRU/GIG. Though, honestly, those first three were basically PMUS saying, "we have extra widebody capacity, what do we do with it?!?"

Though some of these were with the 752 which doesn't help from a widebody perspective. Regardless AA essentially gained US' widebodies. With winter suspensions and the CLT pull down there is probably some slack in the 330 fleet.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 45): Though some of these were with the 752 which doesn't help from a widebody perspective. Regardless AA essentially gained US' widebodies. With winter suspensions and the CLT pull down there is probably some slack in the 330 fleet.

Apparently, not yet. This summer US will operate:

* 16 daily 333 flights: CLT-CDG/FCO/LHR(x2) and PHL-CDG/FCO/LHR/VCE.
* 26 daily 332 flights: CLT-BCN/DUB/FRA/MAD and PHL-ATH/BCN/DUB/FRA/MAD/MAN/MUC/TLV/ZRH.

The average block time per frame and day is 15 hours for the 332 and 15,5 hours for the 333, which are just a little over last summer figures for both types. Compared to last summer, the 330s have lost 2 daily FRA flights + CLT-GRU, but have replaced the 762 in CLT-MAD and PHL-ZRH, and are operating the new 2nd daily CLT-LHR.

I believe that the lack of aircraft is what explains that the new 2nd daily PHL-LHR is operated by a 752. It is surprising, however, that US has decided to upgrade CLT-DUB from a 752 to a 332 instead of using that frame for LHR.

Kashmon:

It seems to me that the focus shouldn't be on expansion but on getting the merger done, with as few problems as possible. No one wants the merger to drag on the way that Southwest and Air Tran has, and no one wants the problems that UA and CO had, especially with the computer systems being merged.

The problem with expansion now is who flies the new routes, AA, US, Envoy, PSA, Piedmont, or one of the Eagle/US Express contract carriers.

One thing AAG needs to look into is the mix of aircraft. Are there current international routes where it would make sense to swap out an A332 for a 763 or a 772 for an A333? At what point does AAG start to put A319s into ORD to replace MD-80s that are being retired?

And as aircraft are retired, the training centers are going to be busy getting pilots and F/As checked out for new aircraft types.

Quoting realsim (Reply 46): I believe that the lack of aircraft is what explains that the new 2nd daily PHL-LHR is operated by a 752. It is surprising, however, that US has decided to upgrade CLT-DUB from a 752 to a 332 instead of using that frame for LHR.

Agree. AA has a ton of capacity to DUB this summer. I'd guess if one was going to fall (b/c performance or just better utilization of a widebody), it would be CLT

AA
PHL - 1x 332
CLT - 1x 332
JFK - 1x 763
ORD - 1x 763

UA
EWR - 2x 752
IAD - 1x 752
ORD - 1x 752

DL
JFK - 1x 752
ATL - 1x 763

Quoting Kashmon (Reply 16): from the past 2 decades the AA strategy is basically acquire airlines and then slowly hand over markets to competitors... apasrt form DFW and Miami - we don't give a damn about the other hubs

I don' t agree with this assessment at all. Current AA management is primarily from the US side of the company, and they did a pretty good job of expanding US's international routes. I would think the same will happen now. This is not the American Airlines of five years ago.

Really nice job, well done.

Quoting realsim (Thread starter): * MAINLINE FLEET COUNT AT YE2015 * - 319 = 125 (+7) - 320 = 55 (-9) - 321 = 174 (+35) - 738 = 264 (+18)

Did not realize that the A320 series were so far ahead of the 737 series. I clearly remember the vicious discussions here that AA would never order/need Airbusses.
Yes, I realize that an important portion came out of US, but still quite remarkable.
Wonder what numbers the A321 fleet (CEO/NEO) will end up . . .  

Quoting ckfred (Reply 44): One thing AAG needs to look into is the mix of aircraft. Are there current international routes where it would make sense to swap out an A332 for a 763 or a 772 for an A333?

I believe this would be relatively complicated to accomplish in practice until there is a single operating certificate (SOC) and until a joint collective bargaining agreement (JCBA) is concluded with the pilots - either through ratification or arbitration. Nonetheless, yes, I fully expect that once that occurs there are going to be multiple "low hanging fruit" opportunities for cross-fleeting the widebodies between hubs.

Specifically, I could see, among others:

PHL/CLT-LHR each getting at least one daily 2-class 777
PHL-ATH/MUC/ZRH and CLT-FRA/CDG going to 763
JFK-FCO/BCN/CDG/GIG going to A330
MIA-CNF/BCN going to A330