Which Florida City Will See First Asian Service?

Max Q · Fri Jan 30, 2015 9:40 am

With the newer twins, especially the 787 I think this can't be too far away, most likely to NRT

I think there are only two real possibilities, MCO and MIA.

LAX772LR · Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:17 am

MIA would make more sense, as it's more business (especially int'l finance) and it's also a significant OneWorld hub, with a j/v partner on the other end.

Yes the Japanese love Disney, but I doubt they love it enough to sustain a 14-15hr flight to MCO... especially when they have their own Disneyland right there in NRT.

Could see a lot of NRT-MIA-MCO triangle trips though.

LAX772LR · Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:19 am

Though it should be noted that MIA has already had (technically) Asian service....... TLV and DOH

Max Q · Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:21 am

MIA does seem more likely, in addition to its business and finance attractions AA can connect you to any city in S America plus there's even the cruise industry .

Do the Japanese like cruising ?

jumpjet · Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:27 am

WDW Celebration International?

Miami · Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:05 am

If we are talking about the Japanese market. MCO is bigger than MIA.

But I'm guessing with JAL and AA being OneWorld just like MIA. I'd assume MIA would be first. But anything could happen.

LAX772LR · Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:14 am

Quoting Miami (Reply 5):
If we are talking about the Japanese market. MCO is bigger than MIA

Even if that's the case.... tourists hauling their brats on prepaid mouse-house packages is not going to sustain a 7,200mi flight.

Miami · Fri Jan 30, 2015 12:12 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 6):

I'm not saying that's the case.

Now, let me ask you this. What do you think? MIA or MCO and why.

commavia · Fri Jan 30, 2015 12:17 pm

It's hard to imagine any Florida city other than MIA seeing Asia service, not just because of the AA megahub there, but frankly because it is by far the largest and most important center of global commerce in the state. MCO is obviously a global tourist destination, but it's hard to imagine MCO viably supporting Asia service given the lower yields and the stage length. Put simply, if any Florida market is ever going to make a nonstop to Asia work - it seems like it would have to be MIA.

HKG212 · Fri Jan 30, 2015 12:21 pm

Quoting Miami (Reply 5):
If we are talking about the Japanese market. MCO is bigger than MIA.

Is this thread a joke?...

Of course MIA. The only real commercial value in linking Florida with Asia is ongoing traffic to South America (despite the hassle which is transiting via the US) via AA's superior network there ex-MIA. There are already two Disney parks in Asia, a third on the way, no way are Asians going to flock to Orlando in numbers which can sustain a commercial long-haul operation.

MCO will never, ever see a direct flight from Asia -- I'll bet my life savings on it.

xdlx · Fri Jan 30, 2015 12:26 pm

Quoting HKG212 (Reply 9):

DL served NRT thru LAX with MD11 back in the 90's MCO-LAX-NRT-LAX-MCO

HKG212 · Fri Jan 30, 2015 12:39 pm

Quoting xdlx (Reply 10):
DL served NRT thru LAX with MD11 back in the 90's MCO-LAX-NRT-LAX-MCO

I bet you 90% of the traffic on the LAX-MCO leg was domestic. Anyway, that was then, this is now. Sorry but the brutal commercial logic of civil aviation in 2015 does not support direct Asia-MCO routes. Or MD11 domestic flights, for that matter.

SYDSpotter · Fri Jan 30, 2015 12:40 pm

Quoting xdlx (Reply 10):
DL served NRT thru LAX with MD11 back in the 90's MCO-LAX-NRT-LAX-MCO

Yes but I think the poster is referring to a non-stop service.

Quoting Miami (Reply 5):
If we are talking about the Japanese market. MCO is bigger than MIA.

But I'm guessing with JAL and AA being OneWorld just like MIA. I'd assume MIA would be first. But anything could happen.

If MIA gets the service, it will be the first and LAST city in Florida to get a non-stop service, there is no room for both. And in the case of MCO, you can forget about it unless the airport/city are offering outrageous rebates/incentives to airlines. A destination that is limited purely by O&D leisure traffic (and subject to seasonality) on a long haul route will never work.

Coal · Fri Jan 30, 2015 12:50 pm

Quoting Miami (Reply 5):
If we are talking about the Japanese market. MCO is bigger than MIA.

You guys have it all wrong. The first city pair will be TLH - NRT. I think capital to capital makes a lot of sense.

Rgds
Coal

jfklganyc · Fri Jan 30, 2015 1:21 pm

This is such a loaded thread...

MIA.

Quoting HKG212 (Reply 9):
Is this thread a joke?...

Miami · Fri Jan 30, 2015 1:51 pm

Quoting Coal (Reply 13):

Haha! You're right!

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 14):

While I do agree with all of you. I sometimes keep quiet due to the fact that I'm "biased".

Quoting SYDSpotter (Reply 12):

I'm sure MIA will be first. We'll probably have an announcement from AA or JAL (AA more likely) later this year on board a 787. The 787 is ideal for such a route.

And MIA does offer more connections than MCO so that's another thing that can give MIA the edge.

Thenoflyzone · Fri Jan 30, 2015 2:00 pm

MCO makes zero sense. At over 11000km, NRT-MCO would be the longest purely VFR route out there. Other East Asian cities are even further away, so even less likely to happen.

MIA, the more premium destination, the one that makes sense, will get east Asia service, its only a matter of time.

bobnwa · Fri Jan 30, 2015 2:51 pm

Quoting Max Q (Reply 3):
Do the Japanese like cruising ?

I believe there are zero cruises originating or terminating in Japan. Having been on over 20 cruises, I do not remember ever seeing Japanese citizens onboard.
The cruise industry is non existent in Japan.

jfk777 · Fri Jan 30, 2015 3:02 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 1):
Yes the Japanese love Disney, but I doubt they love it enough to sustain a 14-15hr flight to MCO... especially when they have their own Disneyland right there in NRT.

Don't forget Disney parks in Shanghai, Hong Kong and California all closer to Japan.

jeffh747 · Fri Jan 30, 2015 3:16 pm

I could actually see TPA being a competitor. They're undergoing renovations and Tampa itself is a world class city for business and leisure- I say this even though I used live right next to MIA and still visit very often.

MAH4546 · Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:42 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 1):
Yes the Japanese love Disney, but I doubt they love it enough to sustain a 14-15hr flight to MCO... especially when they have their own Disneyland right there in NRT.

It absolutely is enough to fill a plane because the Japanese go to Disney World in huge numbers. Orlando-Tokyo is the second largest market between the Southeast and Asia after Atlanta-Seoul. It is larger than Atlanta-Tokyo, Houston-Tokyo, etc. And the third largest market between the Southeast and Asia is Miami-Manila. But it goes without saying that neither of those markets, despite having a lot of passengers, is high yielding.

Quoting jeffh747 (Reply 19):
I could actually see TPA being a competitor.

It's really not at all. More people fly between Miami and Manila or Orlando and Tokyo in a six month period than do between Tampa and all of Asia in one year.

deltalaw · Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:57 pm

The 787 has truly become the aircraft of ridiculous city pair hypotheticals.. It has really taken over that top spot from the 77L and the A345 on this forum. Just because a pairing is operationally possible...an airline should obviously open that route (pause for sarcasm to sink in)

gatechae · Fri Jan 30, 2015 7:08 pm

Quoting bobnwa (Reply 17):
Quoting Max Q (Reply 3):
Do the Japanese like cruising ?

I believe there are zero cruises originating or terminating in Japan. Having been on over 20 cruises, I do not remember ever seeing Japanese citizens onboard.
The cruise industry is non existent in Japan.

I count 13 princess Japan cruises in 2015, all on Diamond Princess (which was built by MHI). Not "none" but also not a lot either.

[Edited 2015-01-30 11:09:29]

cedarjet · Fri Jan 30, 2015 7:11 pm

Japan Air Lines served Miami once before. I don't recall the route (it was a multi stopper that I think continued to S America). It didn't last long. But it definitely happened, in the 1980s. The head of routing planning at Jet Airways told me and the guy is such a walking encyclopedia, I believe him. Anyone know more?

MAH4546 · Fri Jan 30, 2015 7:13 pm

Quoting cedarjet (Reply 23):
Japan Air Lines served Miami once before. I don't recall the route (it was a multi stopper that I think continued to S America). It didn't last long. But it definitely happened, in the 1980s. The head of routing planning at Jet Airways told me and the guy is such a walking encyclopedia, I believe him. Anyone know more?

The routing was NRT-ANC-MIA-GRU with a DC8 and there was no local traffic to/from Miami. It was purely a stop for fuel.

MIflyer12 · Fri Jan 30, 2015 7:40 pm

Quoting jeffh747 (Reply 19):
I could actually see TPA being a competitor. They're undergoing renovations and Tampa itself is a world class city for business and leisure- I say this even though I used live right next to MIA and still visit very often.

Quoting commavia (Reply 8):
It's hard to imagine any Florida city other than MIA seeing Asia service, not just because of the AA megahub there, but frankly because it is by far the largest and most important center of global commerce in the state.

You guys are kidding, right? 'The largest and most important center of global commerce in the state,' in a state that figures prominently in global commerce only in tourism? It's like saying you want to eat from 'the cleanest public toilet.'

TPA-Asia is nothing but risible. TPA doesn't even have daily non-nonstops to all of LAX/SFO/SEA/PDX.

MAH4546 · Fri Jan 30, 2015 7:44 pm

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 25):
You guys are kidding, right? 'The largest and most important center of global commerce in the state,' in a state that figures prominently in global commerce only in tourism?

No, you are absolutely kidding yourself and grossly misinformed if you think the industry in America's third largest economy (Florida) and fourth largest urban area (Miami) is all about tourism.

ualcsr · Fri Jan 30, 2015 8:06 pm

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 25):
You guys are kidding, right? 'The largest and most important center of global commerce in the state,' in a state that figures prominently in global commerce only in tourism? It's like saying you want to eat from 'the cleanest public toilet.'

I don't know where you're from but you certainly know nothing about Miami. Tourism may be the biggest industry in other parts of the state, but as a born and raised Miamian, I can assure you that Miami's economy is far more diverse with large sectors of global finance, international law, trade and entertainment, to name just a few.

Quoting jeffh747 (Reply 19):
I could actually see TPA being a competitor. They're undergoing renovations and Tampa itself is a world class city for business and leisure- I say this even though I used live right next to MIA and still visit very often.

Ahhh, no. Tampa's a nice city but its business sector is far from world class and oriented toward domestic markets. No possibilities for connections either. I think there is zero doubt that the one and only viable option is MIA.

Sooner787 · Fri Jan 30, 2015 8:14 pm

I figure MIA - NRT works with a 789

Question would be will it be an AA 789 or JAL?

Miami · Fri Jan 30, 2015 9:19 pm

Quoting Sooner787 (Reply 28):
Question would be will it be an AA 789 or JAL?

JAL is in talks with MIA officials so wouldn't surprise me if MIA does everything it can to lure JAL into the market.

PITrules · Fri Jan 30, 2015 9:21 pm

I never would have guessed HAV would land direct service to East Asia before MIA, so anything is possible.

VX321 · Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:43 am

I'm going to out on a limb and say Punta Gorda. You never know what Allegiant will do.
Just kidding! MIA will is the most likely candidate. Why? MIA has both premium and non premium traffic. An NRT-MIA needs to have premium traffic. If pax wanted to go from NRT to MCO,they would only have one layover and a short domestic hop to MCO. MIA makes sense. MIA also has AA's Latin American feed.

MD80Nut · Sat Jan 31, 2015 2:07 am

IF it happens, MIA is the most likely. However, I'm not convinced it will happen. I'm not sure the demand for a nonstop is there. There's already ways to go from East Asia to Florida one-stop, too.

I hope I'm wrong, though. I'd love to see ANA and/or JAL at MIA.

Cheers, Ralph

[Edited 2015-01-30 18:16:26]

LAX772LR · Sat Jan 31, 2015 2:59 am

Quoting HKG212 (Reply 9):
MCO will never, ever see a direct flight from Asia

Wrong. MCO has already technically done that:
SV flew scheduled to MCO in the late '90s (and IINM, early '00s) via IAD.

Direct service by an Asian airline to Asia. Bam.

Now in the event that you meant a nonstop by an East Asian carrier; then yeah, I too don't see that happening any time soon if ever.

But that's not what you actually said.

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 20):
It absolutely is enough to fill a plane because the Japanese go to Disney World in huge numbers.

Sure, but I said sustain the service, not fill the plane.

And you know as well as I do, that a plane full of brats on all-inclusive vacation packages, is not going to sustain a 7200mi flight.

Flopped · Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:54 am

Quoting AR385 (Reply 38):
Maybe FLL.

There's a rumor out there that FLL may soon get a once-weekly charter from Japan, but I haven't found any factual evidence to support that claim.

N62NA · Sat Jan 31, 2015 4:21 am

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 26):
fourth largest urban area (Miami)

4th largest? What metric are you using to come up with that?

YULWinterSkies · Sat Jan 31, 2015 5:17 am

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 26):
No, you are absolutely kidding yourself and grossly misinformed if you think the industry in America's third largest economy (Florida)

All proportions kept, Florida has the US fouth largest GSP (~ economy). One spot lower only but the difference with NY (#3) is substantial.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_GDP

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 26):
and fourth largest urban area (Miami) is all about tourism.

That is a given no. Miami rather ranks #9, or perhaps #10 at it is being outgrown by Houston.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...politan_areas_of_the_United_States
To translate this into a market size for intl airlines is a big step with many variables, including mainly how the local economy is oriented towards international trade, and if so, with which continents. Still, with well over 6 M people, MIA - FLL is a big market for sure.

TPAfan · Sat Jan 31, 2015 5:48 am

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 20):
It's really not at all. More people fly between Miami and Manila or Orlando and Tokyo in a six month period than do between Tampa and all of Asia in one year.

It's not like you would have anything positive to say about TPA. What was it last time? Copa airlines had zero chance of lasting a year at TPA? Granted, TPA is not a competitor against MIA for Asia service. But your number crunching isn't always needed, as validated by the Copa airlines situation.

This thread sought a one word answer and everything outside of that was designed to thrash the low yielding tourism at MCO, or somebody to point out the only remaining qualified (recognizable) metro, that is lots of years away and who's business is alot more domestic oriented, and if exceeding those boundaries, south america and Europe.

[Edited 2015-01-30 21:49:27]

ipodguy7 · Sat Jan 31, 2015 5:51 am

Quoting TPAfan (Reply 37):
It's not like you would have anything positive to say about TPA. What was it last time? Copa airlines had zero chance of lasting a year at TPA? Granted, TPA is not a competitor against MIA for Asia service. But your number crunching isn't always needed, as validated by the Copa airlines situation.

This thread sought a one word answer and everything outside of that was designed to thrash the low yielding tourism at MCO, or somebody to point out the only remaining qualified metro, that is years away and who's business is alot more domestic oriented, and if exceeding those boundaries, south america and Europe.

One would think that a major Euro airline would serve a Euro Business/Connection market from TPA (BA to LGW is 100% leisure, LH JUMP is leisure, and Edelweiss to ZRH is a glorified charter) before an Asian carrier would even begin to think of offering a flight. It will, without a doubt be MIA.

Coal · Sat Jan 31, 2015 5:54 am

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 25):
You guys are kidding, right? 'The largest and most important center of global commerce in the state,' in a state that figures prominently in global commerce only in tourism? It's like saying you want to eat from 'the cleanest public toilet.'

You obviously don't know anything about Miami. Miami is the second largest financial center in the US (after NYC), not to mention the economic capital of Latin America.

Quoting VX321 (Reply 31):
I'm going to out on a limb and say Punta Gorda. You never know what Allegiant will do.

I still think TLH has a very good chance of being the first place with service to Asia. I could see perhaps TLH - NRT 4x weekly and TLH - ICN 3x weekly on AA 787, or even 77W with all the government traffic between TLH and Tokyo/Seoul.

Rgds
Coal

ASA · Sat Jan 31, 2015 5:57 am

Quoting Max Q (Thread starter):
Which Florida City Will See First Asian Service?

Hmmmm .... let me take a wild guess

.... Gainesville?!!

C'mon Guys, this is like asking ... which city is MA will get the next ME3 ... BOS or ORH?

TPAfan · Sat Jan 31, 2015 6:08 am

Quoting ipodguy7 (Reply 38):
One would think that a major Euro airline would serve a Euro Business/Connection market from TPA (BA to LGW is 100% leisure, LH JUMP is leisure, and Edelweiss to ZRH is a glorified charter) before an Asian carrier would even begin to think of offering a flight. It will, without a doubt be MIA.

Never, ever disputed the fact it would be MIA. That's why I blatantly concluded, "TPA is not a competitor against MIA for Asia service." Maybe someone could better inform me, but LH's offering to TPA has a higher concentration of economy seating, but the business class product is on par with their normal offering. Edelweiss' business class is not LX's, and LGW is not LHR. LH's service obviously regards the tourism aspect, but I don't see how it wouldn't also serve as a business connection?

KD5MDK · Sat Jan 31, 2015 6:44 am

Quoting SYDSpotter (Reply 12):
A destination that is limited purely by O&D leisure traffic (and subject to seasonality) on a long haul route will never work.

LGW-MCO is not leisure or not long-haul?

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 16):
At over 11000km, NRT-MCO would be the longest purely VFR route out there.

VFR doesn't meant tourism. Unless there are a lot more Japanese people living in MCO than I expect, traffic between MCO and NRT would not be VFR, it would simply be leisure.

SYDSpotter · Sat Jan 31, 2015 7:35 am

Quoting KD5MDK (Reply 42):
LGW-MCO is not leisure or not long-haul?

LGW-MCO is 4353 miles
NRT-MCO is 7251 miles

If LGW-MCO is "long-haul" at 4353 miles, then what would you classify NRT-MCO at 7251 miles as? Ultra Long Haul??

How would you classify SYD-DFW at 8578 miles or the old SIN-EWR non-stop at 9534 miles ?

777Jet · Sat Jan 31, 2015 7:47 am

MIA will be the first city in Florida to get a non-stop service to Asia.

And, if I had to place a bet on which service it would be: NRT-MIA on the JAL 787 or the reverse with the AA 787.

The following two posts pretty much hit the nail on the head IMHO:

Quoting commavia (Reply 8):
It's hard to imagine any Florida city other than MIA seeing Asia service, not just because of the AA megahub there, but frankly because it is by far the largest and most important center of global commerce in the state. MCO is obviously a global tourist destination, but it's hard to imagine MCO viably supporting Asia service given the lower yields and the stage length. Put simply, if any Florida market is ever going to make a nonstop to Asia work - it seems like it would have to be MIA.

Well said.

Quoting HKG212 (Reply 9):
Of course MIA. The only real commercial value in linking Florida with Asia is ongoing traffic to South America (despite the hassle which is transiting via the US) via AA's superior network there ex-MIA. There are already two Disney parks in Asia, a third on the way, no way are Asians going to flock to Orlando in numbers which can sustain a commercial long-haul operation.

Again, well said.

LAX772LR · Sat Jan 31, 2015 7:54 am

Quoting SYDSpotter (Reply 43):
If LGW-MCO is "long-haul" at 4353 miles, then what would you classify NRT-MCO at 7251 miles as?

ANSWER: both are medium-range longhauls, or "medium hauls" if you will.

You can't fly either one without a widebody, yet neither requires ULH-specializing ships such as the 77L.

Kashmon · Sat Jan 31, 2015 8:03 am

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 45):

they are definitely NOT medium hauls
these terms refer to time

anything 4-8 hours is medium haul

777Jet · Sat Jan 31, 2015 8:11 am

Quoting SYDSpotter (Reply 43):

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 45):

Quoting Kashmon (Reply 46):

In my book:

NRT-MCO @ 7251 miles - I would consider long haul. That is almost the sector lenght of SYD-LAX which is the perfect example of a long haul. Still no where near ULH but far, far longer than a medium haul...

LGW-MCO @ 4353 miles - I would sit on the fence and say it falls into a grey area

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 45):
You can't fly either one without a widebody

I believe a 752WL could do LGW-MCO. Possibly the paper A321NEO LR abcdefg as well

SYDSpotter · Sat Jan 31, 2015 8:13 am

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 45):
ANSWER: both are medium-range longhauls, or "medium hauls" if you will.

Really? One route is 3000 miles longer than the other yet you would classify both as medium haul?

So using your terminology, JFK-NRT (6745 miles) and JFK-LHR(3451 miles) are both in the same category of flights then? A 14 hr flight vs a 7hr hour flight are the same then...

AR385 · Sat Jan 31, 2015 8:26 am

Quoting SYDSpotter (Reply 48):
A 14 hr flight vs a 7hr hour flight are the same then...

I can assure you MEX-EZE, feels completely different than FRA-EZE. Even in F...

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