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shamrock350
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Mon Feb 09, 2015 4:45 pm

Quoting Eagleboy (Reply 49):
Here's a better pic:

Certainly looks like a good seat. Not sure about the colour option though, hopefully just a demo version as the lack of seat belts indicates! Navy with the vibrant green trim as seen on the new J class would be nice for the short haul cabin.
 
BrianDromey
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Mon Feb 09, 2015 4:51 pm

Quoting shamrock350 (Reply 46):
It's a dark photo but the near invisible seats in the foreground appear to be by Acro seating (the A4 paper at the bottom says this) and these are used by Aer Lingus Regional but the cream coloured seats in the background are very different

Those Acro seats are also used by TCX. I'll report back if they feature on the A321 to ILD next month. (In a first Lleida-Alguaire is an airport I'd never even heard of before the travel confirmation came through). It appears to be a very tiny airport with only a few thousand passengers a year, but with a very nice, but tiny, terminal. The Spanish do love their White Elephant airports!
The cream seats remind me of Icelandair, for some reason. They don't appear very slimline, either.
 
kaitak
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Mon Feb 09, 2015 5:06 pm

According to Bloomberg, the govt is to reject the IAG bid for Aer Lingus:

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015...to-reject-aer-lingus-bid-bloomberg

So, what now?

- IAG won't proceed unless the govt is on board, so everyone else (including FR) who might have wanted to sell shares, is in a fix
- it's sad (not to say pathetic) that the "electoral cycle" has a bearing on this, but of course it does. Was IAG badly advised in relation to this, if it was advised at all?
- What is FR going to do now? Presumably it was anxious to sell its shareholding and if it was prevented from doing so due to matters beyond its control, does it have any legal recourse
- What happens to EI now?
- IAG is going to "engage" with the govt later this week, so we'll see what that throws up.
- Even if the govt could have got all the assurances it wanted, might it still have pulled back from a sale?
- EI's shares have gone down by about 10% this afternoon.
 
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OA260
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Mon Feb 09, 2015 5:08 pm

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 51):
Those Acro seats are also used by TCX

Do you mean these ones Brian?


http://i955.photobucket.com/albums/ae40/PhilipOA260/F18E6B70-D6DD-441D-9DBD-2907D3718180_zpsdya2gaqm.jpg
 
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OA260
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Mon Feb 09, 2015 5:32 pm

Quoting kaitak (Reply 52):
According to Bloomberg, the govt is to reject the IAG bid for Aer Lingus:

Lets hope its not true or another way around it is found.

Quoting kaitak (Reply 52):
- What happens to EI now?

A very sad missed opportunity and will mean no real growth or major potential being realised in future.

Quoting kaitak (Reply 52):
- EI's shares have gone down by about 10% this afternoon.

No surprise there !
 
BrianDromey
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Mon Feb 09, 2015 5:49 pm

Quoting kaitak (Reply 52):
According to Bloomberg, the govt is to reject the IAG bid for Aer Lingus:

Oh dear. Essentially a quarter of the airline is going to be forcibly sold off and there are no buyer in sight. Brilliant move by the government.

Quoting OA260 (Reply 53):
Do you mean these ones Brian?

I didn't because I thought TCX had Acro seats on the A321s, but proper research suggests that its actually Recaro. The Acro seats are on the A330. They seem to make a nice premium economy seat. Maybe thats what EI have in mind....hope springs eternal!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=69k54dlAHJU
 
Auleyair
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Mon Feb 09, 2015 6:21 pm

Quoting shamrock350 (Reply 46):
I wonder if these are the seats, or at least one of the options that were displayed? Seems a recent photo from the hanger.

Aer_Lingus_Tour 055 by pauraicmcauley, on Flickr

It's a dark photo but the near invisible seats in the foreground appear to be by Acro seating (the A4 paper at the bottom says this) and these are used by Aer Lingus Regional but the cream coloured seats in the background are very different, not sure what kind of work goes on in Hanger 6 and whether or not these could be for another airline but might be worth noting if Aer Lingus are currently reviewing new seating.
Quoting Eagleboy (Reply 47):

Quoting shamrock350 (Reply 46):
I wonder if these are the seats, or at least one of the options that were displayed? Seems a recent photo from the hanger.
Quoting shamrock350 (Reply 46):
but might be worth noting if Aer Lingus are currently reviewing new seating.

Shame the guy getting the tour didn't realise what he was looking at. Definitely looks like a selection of shorthaul seats. In that pic they don't look as if they are for staff to try them out. Maybe the trial was finished when this tour took place

Quoting Eagleboy (Reply 49):

Quoting shamrock350 (Reply 46):
the cream coloured seats in the background are very different,

Here's a better pic:
https://www.flickr.com/photos/[email protected]/16265103398/in/set-72157650253421988/
Quoting shamrock350 (Reply 50):

Quoting Eagleboy (Reply 49):
Here's a better pic:

Certainly looks like a good seat. Not sure about the colour option though, hopefully just a demo version as the lack of seat belts indicates! Navy with the vibrant green trim as seen on the new J class would be nice for the short haul cabin.

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 51):

Quoting shamrock350 (Reply 46):
It's a dark photo but the near invisible seats in the foreground appear to be by Acro seating (the A4 paper at the bottom says this) and these are used by Aer Lingus Regional but the cream coloured seats in the background are very different

Those Acro seats are also used by TCX. I'll report back if they feature on the A321 to ILD next month. (In a first Lleida-Alguaire is an airport I'd never even heard of before the travel confirmation came through). It appears to be a very tiny airport with only a few thousand passengers a year, but with a very nice, but tiny, terminal. The Spanish do love their White Elephant airports!
The cream seats remind me of Icelandair, for some reason. They don't appear very slimline, either.

Long time Larking on A.net but not many post so go easy on me.

I actually took these photo myself so apologized for dark photo. I am only an amateur photography. Not much experience in indoor photography.

I was talking to the EI Guy about any plan for changing seat. He said there is a plan in medium term for the year 2020 and there is no short term plan to change seat (Both Long and Short Haul). There is another seat, not shown in the photograph, It in front of the arco seat, seat design look exactly to this one but in leather. https://www.airliners.net/photo/Dalia...d=77722ab0735d09985a1c12da30860b1b

I found the cream seat quite comfortable.

There are two seat design for EIR, the arco one and one behind it. It look quire similar but the only different is the tray table size.
 
EI320
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Mon Feb 09, 2015 6:30 pm

Unfortunate but not unexpected.

IAG's failure to adequetly address the concerns surrounding connectivity is as much to blame for this deal falling through as the political theatrics. IAG's "guarantees" were nothing short of a PR exercise; they were vague, ambiguous, and were not airport-specific. This was blatantly obvious the day the statement was issued, yet no further clarity has been provided since.

Amidst the wave of public discontent in Ireland over the takeover, IAG's public efforts have amounted to little more than a single statement that raised as many questions as it answered.

A poor showing from all sides.
 
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OA260
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Mon Feb 09, 2015 7:08 pm

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 55):
I didn't because I thought TCX had Acro seats on the A321s, but proper research suggests that its actually Recaro. The Acro seats are on the A330. They seem to make a nice premium economy seat. Maybe thats what EI have in mind....hope springs eternal!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=69k54dlAHJU

The A321 seats look uncomfortable but actually are not. Well thats a personal view so you may have other experiences. I have done 2 x 4 hour flights back to BFS and was surprised how nice they were. The legroom was pretty good.. The meal if you pre order was very good too. Will be interesting to hear your feedback as I found TCX pretty decent. Love the look of the new product in the video link you posted too. The A330 I flew on last May ACE-MAN was the TCX Scandinavia one and had the old seats both in PE and Y .


http://i955.photobucket.com/albums/ae40/PhilipOA260/tcx4_zpsf22f370d.jpg
.

http://i955.photobucket.com/albums/ae40/PhilipOA260/tcx2_zpsfb0af078.jpg


I wonder if anyone will post some pics of the BFS A330 operations this year and what the cabins are like. Hopefully we will see some around posted.

Quoting auleyair (Reply 56):
I actually took these photo myself so apologized for dark photo. I am only an amateur photography. Not much experience in indoor photography.

Thanks for the pics anyway and hope you enjoyed the tour. I did one many years ago and they are pretty interesting.
 
BrianDromey
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Mon Feb 09, 2015 7:37 pm

Quoting OA260 (Reply 58):
Will be interesting to hear your feedback as I found TCX pretty decent. Love the look of the new product in the video link you posted too.

I haven't done a TR in a while, its been a long stream of RE AT6 and FR 738s for the past year or two, but Im thinking about doing one for this trip, the novelty of the airport, if nothing else. I hoping for one of the newer TCX A321s with sharklets, that would also be a first for me. these Recaros are an evolution of the ones on LX, which I found comfortable in a Teutonic orthopaedic sort of way, my only real memory of them was that they had a strange squeak, so they can't have been that uncomfortable!
I haven't pre-booked a meal. Im not sure what Ill be able to face on an 0525 departure....
 
Eagleboy
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Mon Feb 09, 2015 9:06 pm

Quoting kaitak (Reply 52):
According to Bloomberg, the govt is to reject the IAG bid for Aer Lingus:

Bugger it.

Quoting kaitak (Reply 52):
- IAG is going to "engage" with the govt later this week, so we'll see what that throws up.
Quoting OA260 (Reply 54):
Lets hope its not true or another way around it is found.

I can't see them offering anything to counter the political nerves with an election on the horizon.

Quoting OA260 (Reply 54):
A very sad missed opportunity and will mean no real growth or major potential being realised in future.
Quoting EI320 (Reply 57):
A poor showing from all sides.

Indeed. EI may well be a no-go for airline investors due to fears of Govt interference. ANd to be fair IAG could ahve been a little more PR oriented in their approach.

Quoting auleyair (Reply 56):
I actually took these photo myself so apologized for dark photo.

No need to apologise...am sure you were looking all around while in H6. Can I ask what day this took place?
 
Phen
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Mon Feb 09, 2015 10:02 pm

Quoting kaitak (Reply 52):

What a crying shame if true. A golden opportunity to bolster the strong position EI already finds itself in, and it is dashed by narrow-minded local politics. We like to think of ourselves as having evolved into a modern European nation but sadly there are plenty of recent examples of behaviour such as this which demonstrate otherwise. Whilst I can understand the mentality and where the hesitance is coming from (I am from the west of Ireland myself), it is dangerously blinkered and short-sighted.

So what now for EI? Is there anyone in the opposition camp across the table from WW who can spell out clearly why rejecting the offer is a superior alternative to joining a strong group? Can they lay out exactly what EI's long term future plan should be? If there is, they have been pretty quiet so far about putting realistic plans on the table. IMHO all of this opposition is political noise-making just for the sake of it because their own jobs are up for contract renewal next year. And this antiquated sentimental attachment to the 'family silverware' is laughable considering the airline was floated years ago.

EI needs a solid plan for future growth and investment. If the Minister and this gang of Labour TDs were able to answer some basic but crucial questions to explain where this going to come from in an independent EI, there may be a balanced debate to be had. EI will be eclipsed once the likes of FR start TA ops. We already see WOW starting TA ops via KEF (granted not a big threat right now but they will certainly pick up some price-sensitive traffic, and there is a heck of a lot of that in Ireland). With rumours of QR wanting to come to DUB, any chance of expanding eastwards will meet stiff competition from the ME3.

No doubt the future of EI will have a massive question mark over it if this falls through. When the next recession hits, EI probably won't be so lucky but that's OK because by then Enda Kenny & Co. will be retired and living handsomely off their ministerial pensions. [/rant]

The only potential saving grace is that IAG may try again in a couple of years, but I wouldn't be surprised if they consider it too much of a hornet's nest.

[Edited 2015-02-09 14:04:18]
 
Auleyair
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Mon Feb 09, 2015 10:08 pm

Quoting Eagleboy (Reply 60):

No need to apologise...am sure you were looking all around while in H6. Can I ask what day this took place?

A tour organised by Airliner Experience with special permission from Aer Lingus, it a very well organised tour. There is no official website for it. You can keep an eye out for next event on this facebook page https://www.facebook.com/AirlinerExperience The next event was the Dublin ATC Tour and that is booked out already. The previous tour they had was Dublin Fire Station, Eirtech, ATC Tower, Baldonnel Air Base etc.
 
styles9002
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Mon Feb 09, 2015 10:22 pm

Quoting Phen (Reply 61):
EI will be eclipsed once the likes of FR start TA ops. We already see WOW starting TA ops via KEF (granted not a big threat right now but they will certainly pick up some price-sensitive traffic, and there is a heck of a lot of that in Ireland). With rumours of QR wanting to come to DUB, any chance of expanding eastwards will meet stiff competition from the ME3.

It is not so much that one single thing will kill EI on the long-haul but more likely it will be death from a thousand paper cuts over the short to mid-term in my opinion if they try (or are compelled by politics) to go it alone.

WOW Air will likely only grab some of the low end of the market but what if they stimulate Icelandair into serving DUB and that opens up 14 North American destinations which would certainly be more direct, relevant competition for EI mainline services. Additionally, you could even see both WOW and FI offer DUB-KEF-USA/CAN services.

I also read today that Thomas Cook Airlines are planning on launching MAN-BOS & MAN-LAX scheduled service for 2016 to complement MAN-JFK & MAN-MIA which are operating this year. Even though these flights will likely not attract any passengers to or from Ireland and they are not daily, it will certainly not help EI with their current regional strategy from UK to USA via DUB. I'm not comparing MT to EI, but this is about butts in seats and it will likely siphon on potential business.

We also have AC adding more seats onto DUB-YYZ for Summer 2015 as well.

Beyond these three examples of what is coming, I'm sure there are some other possible disruptions that might arrive on the scene, maybe a Norwegian or similar operator. They could serve the US or Canada from Ireland or regional UK points that could also hurt UK-DUB traffic feeding into EI.

Of course, all this may be irrelevant if FR ever do launch a long-haul product or subsidiary and decide to offer Ireland-US/Canada service with it. Without any internal knowledge of this happening, I'm sure if they do launch it, it will be done in a big way.

just my $0.02...
It is what it is.
 
321neoLR
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Mon Feb 09, 2015 10:38 pm

If this report is true,it is a sad day for irish aviation.

Aer Lingus has not grown properly since its early days, and it has been overtaken by every other national flag carrier years ago.

I think long term there will be more job losses in Aer Lingus without a big partner. This is typical irish election politics at its best.

What airline or group will be interested with this government interfering in this manner?

Also the irish governments aviation policy is to allow non eu airlines to operate to dublin and onwards to the U.S. in one hand, saying we want to protect the future of Irish airlines for connectivity, but on the other, opening up new routes to other carriers.

Aer Lingus is too small to grow quickly enough to expand with the required amount of routes to stay in the market long term.

A very sad day for Irish aviation.....I just hope this story is not accurate.
 
JAmie2k9
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Mon Feb 09, 2015 10:51 pm

Quoting Reply 63):
WOW Air will likely only grab some of the low end of the market but what if they stimulate Icelandair into serving DUB and that opens up 14 North American destinations which would certainly be more direct, relevant competition for EI mainline services. Additionally, you could even see both WOW and FI offer DUB-KEF-USA/CAN services.

I don't seem them attracting many, they had only 2 dates in 2015 for €149, all other dates were very comparable to EI.

Quoting Reply 63):
I also read today that Thomas Cook Airlines are planning on launching MAN-BOS & MAN-LAX scheduled service for 2016 to complement MAN-JFK & MAN-MIA which are operating this year. Even though these flights will likely not attract any passengers to or from Ireland and they are not daily, it will certainly not help EI with their current regional strategy from UK to USA via DUB. I'm not comparing MT to EI, but this is about butts in seats and it will likely siphon on potential business.

Don't see any affect as to be honest what % will be package and EI can beat them on price if they really needed such market.

Quoting Reply 63):
We also have AC adding more seats onto DUB-YYZ for Summer 2015 as well.

Think it will be fine, they did well. In future I think you will see AC add an additional destination and remove some YYZ capacity.

Quoting Reply 63):
Of course, all this may be irrelevant if FR ever do launch a long-haul product or subsidiary and decide to offer Ireland-US/Canada service with it. Without any internal knowledge of this happening, I'm sure if they do launch it, it will be done in a big way.

A big threat but out of all T/A carriers EI are probably in the best position to take on the likes of FR/DY. It will be the big boys who will be pressed the most just like their short haul arms are in Europe.
 
EI320
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:52 pm

Quoting Reply 63):
Of course, all this may be irrelevant if FR ever do launch a long-haul product or subsidiary and decide to offer Ireland-US/Canada service with it. Without any internal knowledge of this happening, I'm sure if they do launch it, it will be done in a big way.

Quite a bit of noise has been made over the past few days about WOW, but realistically, they will never be anything other than a niche player. Stopovers in Iceland are just not an attractive proposition.

The economics of long-haul, low-cost are vastly different to short-haul operations. The entire concept is still relatively untested, but the studies conducted to date have been consistent in finding that LCCs will never enjoy the same cost advantages on long-haul that they currently do on short-haul. There is little scope for increasing aircraft utilisation above what the legacies currently achieve, gone are the 25 minute turnarounds, and fuel consumption (an uncontrollable cost for the most part) increases significantly. Cheaper landing fees become less relevant given that fewer sectors are operated per day.

And that's only discussing the areas where LCCs currently gain their cost advantage. Add in the costs relating to crew accommodation, allowances, inflight catering and the additional regulatory burdens, and the cost gap narrows significantly.

In summary, while LCC competition on long-haul would undoubtedly represent a threat, I see no reason why EI cannot compete with such carriers on long-haul routes if they can successfully do it on short-haul.

The A321neo will present a whole new range of opportunities for EI on long-haul, and the A350s will yield further unit cost savings on the trunk routes.

Despite the naysayers, EI will do fine. I am not entirely sure where all the pessimism has come from, as before IAG appeared on the scene in late December there was nobody predicting EI's demise.
 
Eagleboy
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Tue Feb 10, 2015 9:44 am

Quoting Reply 63):
It is not so much that one single thing will kill EI on the long-haul but more likely it will be death from a thousand paper cuts over the short to mid-term in my opinion if they try (or are compelled by politics) to go it alone.
Quoting EI320 (Reply 66):
In summary, while LCC competition on long-haul would undoubtedly represent a threat, I see no reason why EI cannot compete with such carriers on long-haul routes if they can successfully do it on short-haul.
Quoting Reply 63):
I'm sure there are some other possible disruptions that might arrive on the scene, maybe a Norwegian or similar operator. They could serve the US or Canada from Ireland or regional UK points that could also hurt UK-DUB traffic feeding into EI.

I agree with the 1000 cuts idea. EI will be in a good position to survive an LCC encroachment on their market. However combine LCC T/A with an expanded FR out of Ireland, perhaps a refocus by IAG on capturing the UK Regional market, restructuring in AF/KLM and Alitalia which will reduce teh EI share of that transfer market.

Quoting 321neoLR (Reply 64):
I think long term there will be more job losses in Aer Lingus without a big partner. This is typical irish election politics at its best.
Quoting 321neoLR (Reply 64):
What airline or group will be interested with this government interfering in this manner?

As an article in the Indo stated today......"as in house auctions a single buyer is never good"

Quoting EI320 (Reply 66):
Quite a bit of noise has been made over the past few days about WOW, but realistically, they will never be anything other than a niche player. Stopovers in Iceland are just not an attractive proposition.

But that niche will stilltake some business way from EI. And the option of 1-2 night stops in Iceland could be attractive to some. (Personally I feel that EI should offer this option in DUB,great way to get a little extra tourist income into the country)

Quoting EI320 (Reply 66):
Despite the naysayers, EI will do fine. I am not entirely sure where all the pessimism has come from, as before IAG appeared on the scene in late December there was nobody predicting EI's demise.

But isn't that attitude a problem for EI? Just because they are healthy now does not mean that something will happen or some other airline will not interrupt their business model. Looking at the past or the present doesn't answer the questions about this opportunity.

Quoting EI320 (Reply 66):
In summary, while LCC competition on long-haul would undoubtedly represent a threat, I see no reason why EI cannot compete with such carriers on long-haul routes if they can successfully do it on short-haul.

But its not just 1 threat, its many. LCC on T/A, LCC on S/H, increased product attractiveness on ME3 carriers, increased cost efficiencies in EU legacies, more routes opened by US carriers etc....
 
EI320
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Tue Feb 10, 2015 10:30 am

There will always be many threats, and IAG ownership would not shelter EI from any of these. If EI cannot compete, Walsh or any future IAG CEO will not think twice about curtailing EI's network. As has been the case with IB, EI must prove that it can operate as a sustainable, profitable entity within the group.

There are many perspectives to view this from. What's not to say that the costs and restrictions that come with alliance membership, combined with a weaker US partner (AA - who has a weak presence at almost all EI gateways with the exception of ORD) will not weaken EI's ability to compete?
 
al2637
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Tue Feb 10, 2015 10:47 am

Yea, I also don't see what all the pessimism about. I think people are giving too much value to the idea that IAG would be some sort of magic shield to insulate EI from competitive threats. They wouldn't.

As I've stated I feel the UK transfer market hasn't got that much more to grow, and there are not many other areas where IAG would add traffic to EI. In fact I'd see EIs cost base grow under IAG, making them actually less capable of dealing with competitive threats.
 
321neoLR
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Tue Feb 10, 2015 11:01 am

I don't agree with the post above regarding th UK regional market.

Currently Ei compete with BA on eu regional, BA via Lhr and Ei via dub. In aircraft terms it is not efficient to fly such short sectors from man, and all airports South to Lhr. If there was a partnership, all of the flights from man South, could fly via dub, freeing up slots and aircraft with BA to convert to long haul out of Lhr.

Rather than compete, work together.

The big risk is that IAG will create man as a third runway to Lhr, and that will be a big threat to Ei. EI's current model is to feed eu and UK pax to dub for long haul. Freedom rights from the Irish government, and BA man hub has the potential to decimate Ei.

Aviation can change by eu decisions, Usa decisions, so taking any chance to improve and become part of a larger group should not be turned down lightly.

It is old thinking, civil servant mentality that says Ei will always be there on their own.
 
BrianDromey
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Tue Feb 10, 2015 11:35 am

Quoting Reply 63):
I also read today that Thomas Cook Airlines are planning on launching MAN-BOS & MAN-LAX scheduled service for 2016 to complement MAN-JFK & MAN-MIA which are operating this year. Even though these flights will likely not attract any passengers to or from Ireland and they are not daily, it will certainly not help EI with their current regional strategy from UK to USA via DUB. I'm not comparing MT to EI, but this is about butts in seats and it will likely siphon on potential business.

TCX seem to be launching a large US network from MAN. Only a few months ago the group was on the brink of collapse, so its good to see a turnaround. The rebranding looks great, not only on the aircraft but on the Travel Agents premises as well. I really like the sunny yellow with the more professional grey. Its a good change from corporate blues.

Quoting Eagleboy (Reply 67):
I agree with the 1000 cuts idea. EI will be in a good position to survive an LCC encroachment on their market. However combine LCC T/A with an expanded FR out of Ireland, perhaps a refocus by IAG on capturing the UK Regional market, restructuring in AF/KLM and Alitalia which will reduce teh EI share of that transfer market.
Quoting 321neoLR (Reply 70):
The big risk is that IAG will create man as a third runway to Lhr, and that will be a big threat to Ei. EI's current model is to feed eu and UK pax to dub for long haul. Freedom rights from the Irish government, and BA man hub has the potential to decimate Ei.

I don't think IAG have the aircraft or the terminal capacity to take much more of the UK regional market. That said, LBA does seem to have worked very well for them, much to the surprise of many when it launched. It was derided as a "slot-sitter", much like the Irish services are being portrayed in the media. What the self-procalimed experts ignore is that for a hub to function effectively there must be a mix of long and short haul destinations. Long-Haul only at LHR just would not work. Corporate contracts take account of the breath of an airlines network, if BA did not offer a short-haul network, they would not just loose transfer traffic, but a lot of O&D traffic as well. Its a nonsense.
 
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OA260
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Tue Feb 10, 2015 11:52 am

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 71):
TCX seem to be launching a large US network from MAN. Only a few months ago the group was on the brink of collapse, so its good to see a turnaround. The rebranding looks great, not only on the aircraft but on the Travel Agents premises as well. I really like the sunny yellow with the more professional grey. Its a good change from corporate blues.

They really have shown how to turn around a bad airline into a classy operation. I remember in the BMI days where they said MAN - USA/Caribbean couldn't work ! Just shows....

Regarding Aer Lingus the idea that a government can stall the progress of a private airline because an election is around the corner is a blight on the Irish political system and such old school mentality its the 80s all over again. Its also amusing that Irish ex Pats who have left the country and done very well for themselves abroad in major private companies have made comments on forums/media that supports these old practices. It is double standards really.
 
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shamrock604
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Tue Feb 10, 2015 3:34 pm

Quoting OA260 (Reply 72):
Regarding Aer Lingus the idea that a government can stall the progress of a private airline because an election is around the corner is a blight on the Irish political system and such old school mentality its the 80s all over again. Its also amusing that Irish ex Pats who have left the country and done very well for themselves abroad in major private companies have made comments on forums/media that supports these old practices. It is double standards really.


I think we are all jumping the gun here - the offer has not been rejected. This is a press leak - and as such is probably nothing more than a negotiating tactic on the part of the government, and perhaps even Aer lingus.

They are continuing to engage with each other - so lets just see what happens before writing it off!  
 
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shamrock350
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Tue Feb 10, 2015 4:05 pm

Quoting shamrock604 (Reply 73):
I think we are all jumping the gun here

Indeed but we all love a bit of doom and gloom in Ireland don't we!

Anyway, the Transport Minister will meet with IAG tomorrow to discuss Aer Lingus sale and said today the decision is still "weeks away" so I'm sure there'll be plenty more to be heard before this is finally over with. This issue has exposed just how backwards and unashamedly self serving Irish politics can be, not that we didn't know that already of course. It's also laughable to see the sudden national pride in Aer Lingus by some of these people when so many of them were happy to see it sold down the river to Ryanair when it was almost inevitable those green planes would repainted blue and yellow faster than you can say "low fares made simple".

I'm personally still in two minds about this take over, I see some huge benefits for Aer Lingus, Ireland and IAG but also have some reservations, hopefully the next few weeks will see IAG outline their plans for the airline in more detail, joining OneWorld and the transatlantic partnership are big plus points for me so everything is pointing in the right direction at the moment.
 
kaitak
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Tue Feb 10, 2015 5:50 pm

I agree with Shamrock 604 (though there is an element of "clutching at straws" in my agreement!!) ... nothing has been ruled out yet and there is no refusal. The government is more than likely (and indeed hopefully) consulting with IAG at this moment and probably trying to eke out a better deal. However, my concern is that this better deal might be motivated more by its own electoral interests than by the need to help EI.

My initial reaction when I heard rumours about the possible rejection was "here we go again; when it comes down to it and EI needs the govt to act sensibly, it's almost always let down" - the SNN stopover issue is a perfect example of this.

There's no way IAG can insulate EI from competition and I'm sure neither wants this; EI wants to be a growing and successful carrier; it's not the Aer Lingus of the 1970s - cosseted, overmanned and highly inefficient; today's Aer Lingus is a lot more efficient than it has ever been, but as we all know well, it faces fierce competition and (as has been mentioned before) that's only likely to increase in the years to come. EI has come a long way on its own, but the future does not bode well for smallish independent carriers and having the likes of IAG by its side will help in many ways.

I really do hope that something comes of this. It would be a tragedy if the opportunity is allowed to pass by.
 
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OA260
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Tue Feb 10, 2015 8:37 pm

Quoting shamrock350 (Reply 74):
Indeed but we all love a bit of doom and gloom in Ireland don't we!

Indeed haha...

Quoting shamrock350 (Reply 74):
This issue has exposed just how backwards and unashamedly self serving Irish politics can be, not that we didn't know that already of course.

Totally correct Im not sure if you have a vote here but I do and I actually don't even know if I will vote for any of them this time around they are all a shower ! Maybe time to go IND.

I do wonder if they can drag it out until after the election though.
 
JAmie2k9
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Tue Feb 10, 2015 10:19 pm

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 71):
TCX seem to be launching a large US network from MAN. Only a few months ago the group was on the brink of collapse, so its good to see a turnaround. The rebranding looks great, not only on the aircraft but on the Travel Agents premises as well. I really like the sunny yellow with the more professional grey. Its a good change from corporate blues.

2 or 3 weekly peak seasonal routes are hardly a large network, currently just two routes with the other two removed from the system.
 
BrianDromey
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Tue Feb 10, 2015 11:28 pm

Quoting Jamie2k9 (Reply 77):
2 or 3 weekly peak seasonal routes are hardly a large network, currently just two routes with the other two removed from the system.

JFK, LAS, MIA, MCO are all currently operated, LAX and BOS are more than likely for next summer, just not bookable yet. You're right the frequency isn't great on some routes, but the overall network in terms of destinations is sizeable, which is what I was thinking of.
 
BestWestern
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Wed Feb 11, 2015 12:53 am

I'm expecting a political fudge fest. The government will not say anything and will be the last to sell.

There was a firm NO regarding the Ryanair transaction and regarding IAG, nothing said at all.

We do seem to have a week minister of transport who has yet to express his opinion. However Fine Gael are a right wing pro business party at the end of the day so I expect this sale to proceed in a politically acceptable way.

Timmy Dooley was realistic about the SNN LHR route at the time even though he was a local politician so we should hopefully get some sanity from him also.
Greetings from Hong Kong.... a subsidiary of China Inc.
 
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shamrock604
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Wed Feb 11, 2015 12:22 pm

Quoting bestwestern (Reply 79):
I'm expecting a political fudge fest. The government will not say anything and will be the last to sell.

There was a firm NO regarding the Ryanair transaction and regarding IAG, nothing said at all.

We do seem to have a week minister of transport who has yet to express his opinion. However Fine Gael are a right wing pro business party at the end of the day so I expect this sale to proceed in a politically acceptable way.

Timmy Dooley was realistic about the SNN LHR route at the time even though he was a local politician so we should hopefully get some sanity from him also.

Sadly, Dooley has been among the worst on twitter condemning the potential sale. FF have been extremely loud about this on social media - many of course have been quick to remind them that they privatised it in the first place.

Previous EU national mergers have always brought growth to the smaller partner - except for the likes of OS, which countinues to struggle with restructuring. IAG have followed the AF/KL and LH model with IB. I dont see EI being any different. Bring it on!
 
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OA260
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Wed Feb 11, 2015 12:51 pm

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 78):
but the overall network in terms of destinations is sizeable, which is what I was thinking of.

Agreed   

---

This is actually a shame as the airport is pretty decent in terms of passenger comfort/facilities. What needs to be done to halt the demise?


More than a million fliers bypass €120m Cork Airport
Dublin, Shannon and Kery are growing but Cork's new terminal is losing business

There are now major concerns for the long term viability of the airport if the proposed sale of Aer Lingus to IAG goes ahead. Cork - Ireland's second busiest airport - has seen its passenger numbers plummet from 3.25 million down to an estimated 2.1 million, a decline of 36pc.

http://www.independent.ie/business/m...ss-120m-cork-airport-30975357.html

---

Travellers face airport disruption if action goes ahead

Air travellers could be hit with industrial action at Dublin Airport next month, the chairman designate of the DAA has warned.

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news...if-action-goes-ahead-30982744.html

---

Subsidy urged for Cork to Dublin flights

The Government should consider subsidising the Cork-Dublin air route, the chairman of the DAA has suggested, adding that Cork Airport is at a disadvantage compared to other airports.

In the face of a 5.1% decline in passenger numbers at the country’s largest terminal last year, Pádraig Ó Ríordáin told the Oireachtas transport committee that Cork Airport needed the support of the entire region, there needed to be marketing support for airlines, and that there was a need to look at public service obligation support for the route between Cork and Dublin. A flight service between the cities was axed by Ryanair in 2011.

http://www.irishexaminer.com/archive...cork-to-dublin-flights-311911.html

[Edited 2015-02-11 05:21:57]
 
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shamrock604
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Wed Feb 11, 2015 1:29 pm

Quoting OA260 (Reply 81):
In the face of a 5.1% decline in passenger numbers at the country’s largest terminal last year,

Country's largest terminal? wha???

Jesus, where do Corkonians get this stuff!  
 
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AmricanShamrok
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Wed Feb 11, 2015 2:16 pm

The Government Gulfstream IV is being retired; no plans for a replacement. Ministers, the Taoiseach and President will travel commercially and occasionally the shorter-range Learjet will be used:

http://forum.flyinginireland.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8175

Like every other decision that is made nowadays, I suppose it would be a political hot potato if they upgraded to the A319CJ   
 
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OA260
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Wed Feb 11, 2015 4:02 pm

Quoting AmricanShamrok (Reply 83):
Like every other decision that is made nowadays, I suppose it would be a political hot potato if they upgraded to the A319CJ   

They don't need a Govt plane. Use FR or EI like the rest of us. Put the money here instead !!

More than 400 patients on hospital trolleys, Dáil told

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/polit...ital-trolleys-dáil-told-1.2099790
 
Aer Lingus
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Wed Feb 11, 2015 10:29 pm

Any new government jet purchase should have the capability for medevac, troop support, long range SAR top cover as well as ministerial transport if required. A biz jet on its own is pointless when we could just sign up for Net Jets.

Some white tail C17s will be knocking about shortly...   
 
Eagleboy
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Wed Feb 11, 2015 11:07 pm

Quoting Aer Lingus (Reply 85):
Any new government jet purchase should have the capability for medevac, troop support, long range SAR top cover as well as ministerial transport if required.
Quoting OA260 (Reply 84):
They don't need a Govt plane. ... Put the money here instead !!

More than 400 patients on hospital trolleys, Dáil told

The sad reality is that the cost of a new (used) jet would be swallowed by the HSE with no frontline improvement. And the rabid public opinion has no time for facts, like saying the Govt jet is used for more than just off-license openings.......
 
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AmricanShamrok
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Wed Feb 11, 2015 11:25 pm

Quoting Aer Lingus (Reply 85):

Any new government jet purchase should have the capability for medevac, troop support, long range SAR top cover as well as ministerial transport if required. A biz jet on its own is pointless when we could just sign up for Net Jets.
Quoting Eagleboy (Reply 86):
The sad reality is that the cost of a new (used) jet would be swallowed by the HSE with no frontline improvement.

Two very valid points there. Actually the entire Air Corps and their aircraft capabilities should probably be looked at after reading this article today:

http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland...sh-space-its-game-over-311909.html
 
BestWestern
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Thu Feb 12, 2015 1:24 am

Sell AerLingus. Open a Hospital ward in Dublin, cork and Shannon. Win:Win:Win
Greetings from Hong Kong.... a subsidiary of China Inc.
 
dstc47
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Thu Feb 12, 2015 9:42 am

Sadly it is never the right time to buy aircraft for the IAC for any purpose and a replacement for the GIV, however necessary for an island state with limited, and tightly scheduled flights, always looked to be a dead duck.
Even the reported presence of a nuclear equipped TU 95 in Irish air space wont change things.
 
Eagleboy
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:34 am

Quoting bestwestern (Reply 88):
Sell AerLingus. Open a Hospital ward in Dublin, cork and Shannon. Win:Win:Win

My God, the man may have hit on a solution. Take that Timmy Dooley!!
 
BrianDromey
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Thu Feb 12, 2015 11:01 am

Quoting bestwestern (Reply 88):
Sell AerLingus. Open a Hospital ward in Dublin, cork and Shannon. Win:Win:Win

There is a problem with opening hospital wards and creating more beds. Doctors are very good at filling them up. If you give us a thousand new beds we will find a thousand new patients. In a few years exactly the same thing will happen, 'the media' will campaign for 'more beds'. Hospitals have to be seen as businesses. I think the Irish are probably more open to this view than the UK, where everything is "free".
What you have to do is look at the services you provide and the type of services you want to provide. A hospital "bed" is a lot more than that, a bed on the bowel ward isn't much good if you have a brain injury, for example. Planned day-case procedures make money for the hospital and don't require 'proper' beds. You need to identify who remains in your beds for longest. Generally, that is major surgical cases, ICU patients and the elderly. Some, but not all, of the elderly patients remain in hospital while waiting for "social" reasons, care packages etc to be put in place. Like hospital beds, not all care home beds are created equal either. The point Im making is that you cannot run a hospital in isolation, it needs to work with the community (can they get appropriate care from their GP, from their Pharmacist, from a minor injuries or VHI clinic, etc), care homes, district Nurses and with Social Services to keep people out of hospital in the first place, to keep their stay as short as possible and provide as much care as possible in the community.

Sorry for the rant! But just saying "more beds" is equivalent to saying "Airline X should cut fares and everyone should fly with them and they'd be grand" while ignoring an uncompetitive cost base. Sadly, its just not that simple.
 
EI320
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Thu Feb 12, 2015 11:06 am

Very interesting analysis there Brian, well written. It certainly goes a long way in explaining why the issue is such a challenging one to resolve.
 
BestWestern
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Thu Feb 12, 2015 11:06 am

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 91):
Sorry for the rant! But just saying "more beds" is equivalent to saying "Airline X should cut fares and everyone should fly with them and they'd be grand" while ignoring an uncompetitive cost base. Sadly, its just not that simple.

Oh I know that - but this wasn't supposed to be a practical solution, but a political fudge to keep good old timmy and our spineless leader spinning and spinning.
Greetings from Hong Kong.... a subsidiary of China Inc.
 
iRISH251
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Thu Feb 12, 2015 11:32 am

While the Goverment as a shareholder would get a cash windfall from any sale of Aer Lingus, this would be a once-off amount. As such, it couldn't be used to expand or provide a public service unless the Government was clear where the money for future years' provision was going to come from.
 
BrianDromey
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Thu Feb 12, 2015 11:55 am

IB has announced a return to profit.
http://grupo.iberia.es/portal/site/W...VCM1000008de815acRCRD#.VNySysZ3bBI

Anyone who doubts that IAG would simply asset-strip EI for LHR slots should read this. IB is doing a lot of exciting things, paperless cockpit, SmartWatch boarding pass, Print Bag Tags at home, new A330s, new A346 cabins. Yes there has been a lot of pain. I2 caused a lot of unrest, but much like Greenfield and other transformational programmes at EI, it was necessary to compete. Willie Walsh was on the Today show this morning and I felt that IAG actually wants EI, the slots, of course, play a part, but so too does the cost structure and the brand, which is strong in Ireland and North America, two of IAG's key markets. EI makes sense for IAG, asset stripping it and decimating it does not.
 
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shamrock604
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:37 pm

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 95):
Anyone who doubts that IAG would simply asset-strip EI for LHR slots should read this. IB is doing a lot of exciting things, paperless cockpit, SmartWatch boarding pass, Print Bag Tags at home, new A330s, new A346 cabins. Yes there has been a lot of pain. I2 caused a lot of unrest, but much like Greenfield and other transformational programmes at EI, it was necessary to compete. Willie Walsh was on the Today show this morning and I felt that IAG actually wants EI, the slots, of course, play a part, but so too does the cost structure and the brand, which is strong in Ireland and North America, two of IAG's key markets. EI makes sense for IAG, asset stripping it and decimating it does not.

              

FR have released their winter timetable for DUB. Copenhagen begins as new daily route, Lublin comes back, and Treviso goes year round.
 
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OA260
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:45 pm

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 95):
IB has announced a return to profit.

A huge turn around and kudos to IAG for saving the airline. It just shows what you can do with an airline making losses so just think what they can do with a profitable and established airline such as EI !

Quoting Shamrock604 (Reply 96):
FR have released their winter timetable for DUB. Copenhagen begins as new daily route

Yes they were selling seats for just 30c this morning  
 
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shamrock604
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Thu Feb 12, 2015 1:55 pm

Quoting OA260 (Reply 97):
Yes they were selling seats for just 30c this morning  

After last time? Not even at that price..... now pass me the Green Kool Aid.  
 
opticalilyushin
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RE: Irish 3/15: Fasten Seatbelts - Turbulence Ahead!

Thu Feb 12, 2015 2:35 pm

booked for £0.21 a go 

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