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Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 5:28 am

Please continue the discussion here.

Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates (by scbriml Feb 4 2015 in Civil Aviation)

Best regards,
Ben Soriano
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Boeing778X
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 5:31 am

In summery, EK and the 747-8i, as nice it would be, will not happen   

However, if Boeing can eventually break even with the 747-8 by means of selling -8Fs, then that's all that matters.

The 777-9 really did damage the 747-8i's appeal.
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rta
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 5:38 am

Not saying it can't happen, but I can't imagine Emirates wanting to add another aircraft type to their fleet.
Who knows though.. money talks  
 
UA444
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 6:05 am

If the price is right, they'd be stupid not to. I'm sure Boeing will do everything they reasonably can to make an order happen, which is why I think these talks are different than ones in 2008.
 
travelhound
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 6:36 am

Quoting UA444 (Reply 3):
If the price is right, they'd be stupid not to. I'm sure Boeing will do everything they reasonably can to make an order happen, which is why I think these talks are different than ones in 2008.

Price is one thing, financing is another!

I wonder how financiers are viewing the current generation A380 at the moment? Boeing could offer Emirates favourable financing terms and guaranteed buy backs to make the value equation for the 748i work!
 
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 8:28 am

Quoting travelhound (Reply 4):
Price is one thing, financing is another!

Option three: business case. We don't even know if the 747-8i would fit in EK's business plans.

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 1):
will not happen

Stranger things have happened before. I'm not going to bet on this one.
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LTH
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 9:09 am

I agree: strange things happen in aviation every day. Ordering maybe not 100 but some 748s would put some nice additional pressure on Airbus to proceed with the 380neo and an 380 stretch.


LTH
 
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 9:09 am

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 5):
Stranger things have happened before. I'm not going to bet on this one.

While that is true if I would be a betting man I would bet on "no". With so many B777-9's and A380's coming the B748i really adds nothing significant to EK's fleet and business plans (imho). Which makes such an order highly, highly unlikely.

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 1):
In summery, EK and the 747-8i, as nice it would be, will not happen  

Good summary.  
 
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 9:10 am

Sorry but the 747-8i is ready to go, but the 380NEO has to be done , Airbus speaking , that means Time ! ( years )
 
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 9:16 am

Quoting dennys (Reply 8):
Sorry but the 747-8i is ready to go, but the 380NEO has to be done

Even while being "ready to go" for many years (although actually it is not since there is talk of some minor improvements to the B748i to make the offer extra appealing) it has never persuaded EK to purchase or lease B748i's.

The A380-neo offers really additional value and capabilities to the A380, and thus to EK as a company. The B748i is just not doing that really, and therefore it has not made its way into the fleet of EK. And also not in the fleet of many long-time B747-customers. Which says it all about this beautiful aircraft, it is just not good enough.
 
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 9:26 am

I think in EKglish, big aircraft means two full length decks, made in TLS, and smaller aircraft mean one single full length deck, made in PAE, even from a corporate image point of view...

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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 9:32 am

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 7):
coming the B748i really adds nothing significant to EK's fleet and business plans

Earlier delivery slots ?
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 9:40 am

Quoting columba (Reply 11):
Earlier delivery slots ?

Which would have to make up all the extra costs for entering a new fleet type with hardly any resale value? I don't see that as adding something significantly positive for EK. Especially with the low production rates for the B748i.

The fact that Tim Clarke is not in these talks, but that Boeing surpassed him to talk to the EK owners says it all. This is a bold, but even more a desperate move to try to save the B748i program a couple of years longer.
 
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 9:57 am

Quoting baconbutty (Reply 217):
If you can't tell the difference between a sovereign state actor and a publicly traded company, and why it makes your comparison irrelevant, I can't help you.

While nice and glib, I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. Are you implying that the decision-making process of the US government is much quicker than a corporation like BA? While there are efficient governments, they tend to be of the less-democratic variety. Though to be fair, Murdoch-owned news organizations have been reporting that Obama is a dictator.

Alternatively, are you saying that BA might have financing issues? They're a big airline, deliveries wouldn't start for a year or two and it's a handful of hulls. Unless they're making an EK-sized order (mind you, BA only has options for 7), it shouldn't be a problem. BA has had several A380s in service for a while now, I assume they pay close attention to how much money their routes are making. Therefore, they should have a good idea about whether this is an aircraft they want to be buying more of.

Quoting zckls04 (Reply 218):
Ah, the inevitable conspiracy theory. I would say it's more conceivable that those companies bought the planes which they wanted. What form did this "harassment" you speak of take?

Oooh! Conspiracy theory!? I hate to break it to you, but a government pressuring a company to preserve jobs is hardly an uncommon occurrence. A decade ago, Airbus has just spent $20 billion to introduce a jet that is selling very slowly. They make some calls to goverment officials and point out that a public vote of confidence in the program by their national airlines would encourage orders from abroad. Otherwise, thousands of high-paying jobs might be at risk. You don't think any politicians are going to be concerned? And yes, receiving a phone call from a government minister every few days that you have to respond to politely might be viewed by some CEOs as harassment, though they'd never say so in public.

If an airline is lobbying the government for certain provisions in bilateral sky treaties or trying to get approval for another runway at one of their hubs, do you think officials will be more or less amenable to the airline's position if they've done them a favour? Maybe the airline would like a larger allocation of carbon credits in the EU Emissions Trading System. There's countless issues that an airline would prefer a friendly government for. Hence the business case for the A380, which might up until that point only have been so-so for BA, LH, AF, suddenly becomes a lot more clear-cut.
 
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 10:44 am

Quoting dennys (Reply 8):
Sorry but the 747-8i is ready to go,

Perhaps but that isn't necessarily an advantage. It depends on when EK needs the new planes.
They already have a large amount of A380s on order so if EK doesn't need new aircraft
until 2020 or so , it won't help Boeing sell 748s.
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 11:24 am

Quoting travelhound (Reply 4):
I wonder how financiers are viewing the current generation A380 at the moment? Boeing could offer Emirates favourable financing terms and guaranteed buy backs to make the value equation for the 748i work!

I am sure the sales department would be happy to offer buy backs, they finance guys, not so much.
 
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 11:39 am

Quoting icramerica:
Boeing will not sell 100 748s at a loss. But they might sell 100 748s at a price that will bring the program overall above break even, which would be an achievement. Combined with promised PiPs over time for the engines and possibly promised weight savings (costs amortized over 100 frames), the deal might be very attractive. Why not configure the 748 in two class rather than the A380, where it feels like a misuse of floor space.

I would support your statement and take it even one step further.

When a company like Boeing is facing the end of the production line, it is no longer a matter of "achieving break even" but about getting a margin. Boeing invested a lot in the 748 development and production line, and they aimed their commercial price such that they may eventually achieve break-even (return on investment) and better. Now that goal is far out of sight, the sales target is simply to sell airframes at the actual out-of-pocket cost for Boeing + $1.

Furthermore, calculating the forseeable income generated by spareparts and maintenance, the sales price of airframes could at this stage very well be below out-of-pocket cost for Boeing, and still be a better business case than closing the production line and absolute certainty that not a dollar of that investment will ever be regained.

In that light, the 100 airframe pitch to EK can be made at extreme discounts, in such a way that the owner of EK has a bottom-price offer against any A380(neo) proposal that may be under discussion.

I have seldom met anyone who adequately foresaw EK's investment decisions and their sheer size, so I see the Boeing pitch as an aggressive no-regret move which can never make things worse for Boeing than its current facing EOL of the 747-8i program.
 
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:13 pm

Quoting ricknroll (Reply 15):
I am sure the sales department would be happy to offer buy backs, they finance guys, not so much

Yes, I am sure of that, but I'd suggest any sale to EK would be completed on a corporate or even consular level. They are just too important a customer.
 
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 2:27 pm

I am no expert in business, but what if selling planes at a rather modest loss, and gradually closing down the line, is cheaper than axing it at once?

I mean lets assume Boeing sells zero new 748s, but production ramp up of the 779 is only happening in a few years - they then will have to decide what to do with the workforce. Maybe gradually winding down the 748 personnel is cheaper than axing the whole programme entirely?

Obviously the complexity of such business decisions is much bigger than can be put into a few words. So many factos play a role, that the simple logic of "each plane must be sold at a profit" is a way too gross oversimplification.

The same applies to the A380 as well, we have talked about that many times already.
 
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 2:41 pm

Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 18):
I am no expert in business, but what if selling planes at a rather modest loss, and gradually closing down the line, is cheaper than axing it at once?

I do not know if it would be less expensive, but closing the line will involve some large write-downs, both on outstanding production costs (assuming the currently sold units are not sufficient to cover the total deferred production costs) and closing down and disposing of the production facilities. That's going to hit revenues and profits, which by extension will hit the stock price.

If Boeing can keep the line open, should traffic (passenger and/or cargo) suddenly see a spike, Boeing will be able to sell additional frames (passenger or freighter). And any additional frame they can sell helps the resale of the program.

Ending the 747 program is also going to have an impact on the suppliers for that program. So beyond just Boeing, the suppliers have a vested interest in trying to secure new orders.
 
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 2:46 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 19):


Yes that was more or less what I thought about the case. One does not simply say "its over now" over night. This happened before, granted, but both the 717 and MD-11 lines were lines, which Boeing inherited.
 
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 3:53 pm

Quoting rta (Reply 2):
Who knows though.. money talks

If there's one thing we know about EK it's that the analysts' pencils are sharp. A dramatic change in pricing could definitely affect an aircraft's prospects, for the better or for the worse. And, at the very least, a dramatic change in pricing could also offer extra leverage over the competition...

It's very reasonable to believe Boeing might offer substantially better pricing on the 747-8 now than it has in the past. So, while I'd still be very surprised to see any new short-term order for EK be made up of 747-8s rather than more 77Ws, I don't think EK's past dismissals of the 747-8 tell us all that much.

I do think the 100 number is rather ridiculous. 30 (of either 748s or 77Ws) would be more reasonable.
 
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 4:00 pm

Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 18):

I am no expert in business, but what if selling planes at a rather modest loss, and gradually closing down the line, is cheaper than axing it at once?

I think you are all missing what Boeing is really doing. Boeing isn't selling airplanes here, they are selling an insurance policy against this...

http://blogs.rollcall.com/the-contai...kies-deals-with-gulf-nations/?dcz=

If EK orders 100 748s it will essentially guarantee that AA/DL/UA will get nowhere with their attempts to stop MidEast carrier expansion. Boeing's timing makes it VERY clear that they rushed over there knowing that EK might be more receptive knowing they would have a huge bargaining chip in any future Open Skies repeal negotiations with a deal like this in their pocket.
 
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 4:01 pm

Is there a way we can generate a list of 748 compliant airports that are not A380 compliant where EK could have an interest in increasing single flight capacity over the 77W? ORD is one but I think that will be fixed before they can deliver 748s anyway. I believe GRU is another. HND?

How many more seats could EK put in their 748i over the 77W? 40? Less cargo tradeoff.

I think we all saw the range increase that Boeing has been working as intended to appeal to EK. I wonder if this will work. I am not optimistic.

tortugamon
 
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 4:13 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 23):
Is there a way we can generate a list of 748 compliant airports that are not A380 compliant where EK could have an interest in increasing single flight capacity over the 77W?

SEA is technically one (though EK may still be operating the 777-200LR to here because they are said to use the belly space for 777 spares).
 
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 4:30 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 24):
(though EK may still be operating the 777-200LR to here because they are said to use the belly space for 777 spares)

In recent months it's been one of the high MTOW 77Ws. Even more belly space.
 
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 4:32 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 22):
If EK orders 100 748s it will essentially guarantee that AA/DL/UA will get nowhere with their attempts to stop MidEast carrier expansion.

ME3 have already 225 777X on order. They don't need another 100 748i for leverage.
 
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 4:33 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 23):
Is there a way we can generate a list of 748 compliant airports that are not A380 compliant

Oddly enough, they are both in category F. Whereas the previous version, the 744, is a category E. I guess this is just one more stumbling stone for the 748.
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 5:26 pm

Quoting hilram (Reply 27):
Oddly enough, they are both in category F. Whereas the previous version, the 744, is a category E. I guess this is just one more stumbling stone for the 748.

I think Boeing has gone through the effort though of convincing about 200 airports that are technically category E to give an exemption to the 748 as it is not that much different than the 744 which many of these airports operate.

Doesn't LH send its 748 to ORD sometimes? I know that is not a Cat F airport.

There was more specific figures somewhere but here is the Boeing propaganda:
http://www.boeing.com/commercial/aeromagazine/articles/2010_q3/3/

Quoting Stitch (Reply 24):
SEA is technically one (though EK may still be operating the 777-200LR to here because they are said to use the belly space for 777 spares).

Good one; I think you are right.

tortugamon
 
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 5:38 pm

Quoting HALtheAI (Reply 13):
A decade ago, Airbus has just spent $20 billion to introduce a jet that is selling very slowly.

AF order was the second announced order. Did we know it was slow selling at that stage?

Quoting HALtheAI (Reply 13):
Oooh! Conspiracy theory!? I hate to break it to you, but a government pressuring a company to preserve jobs is hardly an uncommon occurrence.

Indeed, but it's got to be quite some pressure to persuade a privately held company to spend 2.5 billion dollars on something it doesn't want. In the end it has to be a decent quid pro quo, and what you're describing isn't, at least to me.

Quoting HALtheAI (Reply 13):
If an airline is lobbying the government for certain provisions in bilateral sky treaties or trying to get approval for another runway at one of their hubs, do you think officials will be more or less amenable to the airline's position if they've done them a favour?

It's plausible that an airline might spend an enormous amount of money on the off-chance that it might make the government slightly more likely to build a new runway in twenty years. I just don't find it anywhere as near plausible as the carrier just ordering the planes it wants based on the terms it was offered. That's not to say those terms might not have been highly favorable, but for an airline the size of the ones we're talking about, acquisition costs aren't nearly as important as running costs.

It would also seem odd to me if one, and exactly one carrier in the entire world can make this plane work effectively. Zero, I could understand. Several, I could understand. But exactly one? Seems unlikely to me. And at the time of launch if I'd had to pick an airline I thought could use the A380 effectively based on its capacity and range BA probably would have been high on my list.

Quoting HALtheAI (Reply 13):
Hence the business case for the A380, which might up until that point only have been so-so for BA, LH, AF, suddenly becomes a lot more clear-cut.

Does it? If the business case was not compelling to start with I fail to see how a bit of extra influence would help enough to offset the daily financial drain that these planes would be causing the airlines.

What I think is far more likely is that those influences you mention above may have been nice extra fringe benefits, but that the "most likely explanation" for AF, BA and LH buying the A380 was that they thought they could make money from operating it.
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 6:19 pm

Quoting hilram (Reply 27):
Oddly enough, they are both in category F. Whereas the previous version, the 744, is a category E. I guess this is just one more stumbling stone for the 748.

Please stop using the general category. All Jet airliners have specific airport compatibility guides. To be specific I'd be frankly shocked if any airport the A380 operates at meets a full category F rating. Thats.... a whole lot of extra paving for no aircraft that needs it.

For better or worse the A380 operates like a 744 outside of taxiway/runway centerline, and firefighting issues. Even the centerline issues can be worked around with procedures instead of requiring physical reconstruction before A380s operate there.

The 748i can be either better or worse for an airport than an A380 as they are different widths and lengths. One airport might be able to operate the shorter 748 wingspan while not the A380. Another airport might be able to take the A380 fine, but not the 748 due to the extra length leaving the tail in a taxiway while at the gate.
 
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CALTECH
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 9:09 pm

Quoting astuteman:
Putting my cards on the table, as an enthusiast I'd LOVE EK to go for 100 x 748i, as well as 100 x A380NEO, at the expense of the 777X's.
The 777X (IMO) will be ok even without EK, but these beautiful 4-holers, maybe the last of their kind, look like they need these big EK orders to keep them viable for the manufacturers.
The icing on the cake would for EK tro then become the world's most profitable airline, flying huge quantities of 4-holers (of both types)

How good would that be?


  

Sad day when the 4-holers will not be economical anymore. Still, to get the capacity and range, they will be around for a bit yet. But like in a thread a while ago, Airbus and Boeing probably have 4-holer killers in the works.



Miss the odd 3-holers too. Twins are okay, but boring anymore. Remember as a young one spending time at a friend's house at LAX's departure end, the 747s were the ones that thrilled. Richard used to keep track of time and type of aircraft. IIRC, United dominated LAX back then.

Here's hoping offers Emirates a deal too good to refuse. And if they do refuse, offer it to United.  
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travelhound
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 9:19 pm

For argument sake an order for fifty planes would probably enable Boeing to implement the Ozark improvements.

If the Ozark improvements are filtered down into the F model, the business case for purchasing a new 748F instead of retaining older 744's becomes more viable. If this stimulates demand for 20 748F, we would have a business case for fifty 747-8i's sold at cost and twenty 747-8F's sold with a commercial profit margin.

Orders for seventy aircraft would probably enable Boeing to increase production, which in turn would lower costs. It would also take away the immediate need for Boeing to "fire sale" 747's to keep the line running.

The last thing Boeing would want to do is fire sale 747's to customers knowing they will need to order the aircraft in the future. I'd suggest there could be a good 50-100 orders still waiting to happen!

From the previous thread:

Quoting Astuteman

Quote:
787-10 = 2018. A330NEO = 2017, A350-1000 = 2017.
So not true

The 787-10 has been in development for quite a few years longer than both the A350-1000 and A330NEO. The pacing item for this airframe is not entry into service, but availability of 787 production slots to deliver the aircraft to its customers.

I'd suggest the resources Boeing has committed to the 787-10 are far less than the resources Airbus have committed to the A350-1000 and A330NEO.

If we look at the 777X, from all accounts the aeroplane has been properly defined. Even though one could argue an A380NEO would have a relatively smaller workload, the long lead time items (i.e. engines) are still to be defined. This would be the pacing item for the design of the rest of the airframe.

So, in short Boeing are in the middle of the S-curve with the 777X, whereas Airbus are yet to start the A380NEO program.
 
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 9:51 pm

Quoting travelhound (Reply 32):
The pacing item for this airframe is not entry into service, but availability of 787 production slots to deliver the aircraft to its customers.

Well it's also heavily tied to Charleston which major construction won't start until 2016. See the army corp of engineer filing for Boeing Charleston.

Quote:
It is our understanding that Stage 2 of the proposed expansion is still in the early planning stages and is not expected to begin construction until 2016.

So far right now, the construction companies have been doing massive land clearing and filling in the reservoirs. They still haven't demolished the SCRA where the new paint barn is going to be. LN 528 is going to be ZC001 and they're currently at LN275-LN290 for the final assembly process.
 
UALWN
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 9:59 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 28):
Doesn't LH send its 748 to ORD sometimes? I know that is not a Cat F airport.

They send it daily.
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 10:45 pm

Quoting travelhound (Reply 32):
The 787-10 has been in development for quite a few years longer than both the A350-1000 and A330NEO. The pacing item for this airframe is not entry into service, but availability of 787 production slots to deliver the aircraft to its customers

I'd suggest the pacing item for this airframe is actually the uprated engines (like the Trent TEN)
I'd also challenge your assumption that the 787-10 has been in development for longer.
I have absolutely no idea where you get that from.
I'm pretty sure the A350-1000 was launched before the 787-10
Even the higher weight version was announced before the 787-10

Quoting travelhound (Reply 32):
I'd suggest the resources Boeing has committed to the 787-10 are far less than the resources Airbus have committed to the A350-1000 and A330NEO

As the A330NEO AND the A350-1000 will EIS before the 787-10, these Airbus programmes should be releasing them first.
So my response has to be "So what?"

Quoting travelhound (Reply 32):
So, in short Boeing are in the middle of the S-curve with the 777X, whereas Airbus are yet to start the A380NEO program.

A plane launched in 2014 and EIS in 2020 is in the middle of the "S" curve in Feb 2015?
Good luck with that

None of which is pertinent to a thread on EK and the 748i by the way.


Rgds
 
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glideslope
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 10:51 pm

I thinks it's very interesting the discussions are not with Mr. Clarke. They are with EK's Chairman/Owner/Sheik Ahmed Bin Saceed Al Maktoum. IMO, Politics will play a large role in this. 100 748's to the UAE is like ordering McNuggets. They could simply want to support the US Defense Industry through Boeing.

While they still fly some Mirage 2000-9's, they send their pilots to the 162nd in Tucson to fly their Block 60 F-16's. I simply do not see any CASM in these "discussions."
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Fri Feb 06, 2015 10:54 pm

Quoting glideslope (Reply 36):
They could simply want to support the US Defense Industry through Boeing.

Ordering 100 F-15 Silent Eagles or 100 F/A-18 Super Hornets would be of more help to Boeing IDF.  
 
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glideslope
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Sat Feb 07, 2015 12:16 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 37):

All ends up in the same pot. No different than our friends across the pond. Be it Boeing or Lockheed Martin.  

[Edited 2015-02-06 16:18:14]
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
travelhound
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Sat Feb 07, 2015 12:43 am

Quoting astuteman (Reply 35):
I'd suggest the pacing item for this airframe is actually the uprated engines (like the Trent TEN)

No arguments here!

Quoting astuteman (Reply 35):
I'd also challenge your assumption that the 787-10 has been in development for longer.

The 787-10 is a (relatively) straight forward (stretch) derivative of the 787-9, which has been in operation for close to a year now. I don't think we would have to do too much surmising in coming to a conclusion that the 787-9 would have been developed from the outset with the 787-10 in mind.

On the flip side the A350-1000 is not a straight forward (stretch) derivative of the A350-900, meaning the engineering resources for this program would be far more substantial than that for the 787-10.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 35):
So my response has to be "So what?"

Both Airbus and Boeing are a dynamic! As such, committing (finite) engineering resources to one program has an impact on the OEM's ability to commit engineering resources to another program!

Quoting astuteman (Reply 35):
A plane launched in 2014 and EIS in 2020 is in the middle of the "S" curve in Feb 2015?

The 777X was a relatively well defined plane at launch (in 2013). It is now in the middle of its design (not flight testing) phase and as such in the (relatively vague term) middle of the s-curve. Th A380NEO program has not been launched as yet!
 
DeltaMD95
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Sat Feb 07, 2015 1:19 am

The longer this rumor lingers without a rejection from EK, the more interesting things may get... Either in the way of profit crippling discounts from Airbus as EK leverages of Boeing's desperation, or maybe, just maybe a surprise 747-8I order that will fool all the so called forum "experts."   
Did you know that a Boeing 717-200 is really a McDonnell Douglas MD95-30? ;-)
 
Gasman
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Sat Feb 07, 2015 1:49 am

Opinions here seem to be divided into two camps.

1. It will not happen
2. It probably will not happen, but it could happen with the right mixture of politics, financial jiggery-pokery and massive discounting on behalf of Boeing.

As a major Boeing and 747 fanboy, I'd argue that neither scenario is a particularly fitting finale for an aircraft of the legacy and stature of the Boeing 747. If there was an order made without some sort of financial dignity, I'd prefer they just let the 747 RIP.
 
karadion
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Sat Feb 07, 2015 1:50 am

Quoting astuteman (Reply 35):
I have absolutely no idea where you get that from.
Dash 10 Now since I got that date. I did a custom search on A350-1000 prior to February 6th and I got nothing. Now after February 6th, I got this as the earliest which Airbus announced the family at Farnborough in July, 5 months after. Farnborough Of course there's the go-ahead that happened in December 2006 So it seems to me that Boeing was already studying and engineering the 787-10 prior to any sources I can find. Of course there's this airliners thread where the 787-10 is mentioned This flightglobal article implies that only the -800/-900 was being discussed prior to Farnborough. Of course the thread is pretty hilarious since it says that the A350 is dead and the A370 will replace it. And it's got Keesje commenting in it as a bonus.

[Edited 2015-02-06 18:01:06]
 
DeltaMD95
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Sat Feb 07, 2015 1:59 am

Quoting gasman (Reply 41):
As a major Boeing and 747 fanboy, I'd argue that neither scenario is a particularly fitting finale for an aircraft of the legacy and stature of the Boeing 747. If there was an order made without some sort of financial dignity, I'd prefer they just let the 747 RIP.

If you're that mercenary about a potential production saving 747 order, then I would say you are anything but a fanboy. And perhaps, enthusiast.
Did you know that a Boeing 717-200 is really a McDonnell Douglas MD95-30? ;-)
 
Gasman
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Sat Feb 07, 2015 2:28 am

Quoting DeltaMD95 (Reply 43):

Yeah fair cop. If such an order came that genuinely did save the 748 I'd be the first to applaud it. I guess what I'd hate to see is an order at loss making prices for a few frames that all end up parked in the desert far earlier than what they deserve.
 
UA444
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Sat Feb 07, 2015 2:42 am

Quoting gasman (Reply 44):

What makes you think they'll be loss making prices? An order is an order and If it means even more 747s, then you should be thrilled. It doesn't make the plane "less dignified".
 
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TheRedBaron
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Sat Feb 07, 2015 3:14 am

Quoting glideslope (Reply 36):
I simply do not see any CASM in these "discussions."

Because its not an A380 thread, the Queen of the Skies is oblivious to such pedestrian comparisons on CASM. LOL

Quoting Stitch (Reply 37):
Ordering 100 F-15 Silent Eagles or 100 F/A-18 Super Hornets would be of more help to Boeing IDF.  

Exactly why order Pizzas when you really need Ice-cream .

Quoting DeltaMD95 (Reply 40):
747-8I order that will fool all the so called forum "experts."   

Well, I think I would surprise even Boeing... but to be realistic I bet EK would order another 100 a380 and keep fleet commonality and able to boast that they could use the Whale-liner in all their routes (id airports can accommodate it).

I might fly MEX FRA with LH just for the sakes of experiencing the 748... but I think its days are counted.

TRB
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dbo861
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Sat Feb 07, 2015 4:20 am

Quoting TheRedBaron (Reply 46):
I might fly MEX FRA with LH just for the sakes of experiencing the 748... but I think its days are counted.

The days of the 748 factory line are probably numbered, but considering LH is still taking brand new 748s..you still have several years to experience a 748.
 
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glideslope
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Sat Feb 07, 2015 4:21 am

Quoting TheRedBaron (Reply 46):
Because its not an A380 thread, the Queen of the Skies is oblivious to such pedestrian comparisons on CASM. LOL

I never attempted to make a direct comparison in CASM between the two frames. My comments were simply stating I believe this to be about Politics not CASM. I'll try to break it down in a more simple expulsion of verbiage next time.   
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
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SEPilot
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RE: Boeing Pitches 100 X 748 To Emirates - Part 2

Sat Feb 07, 2015 4:49 am

All this talk about "money talks" and "the price being right" ignores a huge reality; the initial price of an aircraft, large as it is, is a relatively small part of the costs of operating an aircraft over its lifespan. And so the ability of either manufacturer to make up for inefficiency by cutting the price is highly unlikely to be effective (as Airbus found out when they were trying to sell the A346 against the 77W). The 748i may or may not be as fuel efficient as the A380 (and I am not making a judgment about it either way, except I suspect that it would be slightly less efficient), but it is smaller, and offers only slightly more range at best. It is less efficient than the 779, and offers only slightly more passenger capacity at the price of less freight capacity. Much as I would like to see scores more of them enter service, I cannot see it happening. With the choices of the A380 and the 779 available, I cannot see any unique capability that justifies any airline purchasing it. Airlines don't buy airliners for their sex appeal.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler

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