Will Southwest Ever Serve Hawai'i?

vulindlela744 · Fri Feb 06, 2015 9:06 am

I know it's been a few years since SW announced their intent to fly to Hawai'i but since then we've never really heard much more about it or a potential launch date. Do you think it'll happen? I understand their 737-800's have range issues which prevents them from flying full to Hawai'i

Raventech · Fri Feb 06, 2015 9:26 am

Its not any range issues that stopped them, its that competition has increased to the point that they are better off just flying to new international destinations than getting and maintaining an ETOPS sub fleet of aircraft to the Islands. Alaska flies 800s all the time to the islands and range is only an issue when the winds are really cranking.

N1120A · Fri Feb 06, 2015 10:10 am

Quoting vulindlela744 (Thread starter):
I know it's been a few years since SW announced their intent to fly to Hawai'i

I doubt Air Namibia will ever fly to Hawai'i. Southwest's code is WN.

Quoting vulindlela744 (Thread starter):
I understand their 737-800's have range issues which prevents them from flying full to Hawai'i

No they don't. Not at all.

Quoting Raventech (Reply 1):
Its not any range issues that stopped them, its that competition has increased to the point that they are better off just flying to new international destinations than getting and maintaining an ETOPS sub fleet of aircraft to the Islands.

No, it is far more simple than that. Southwest would fly to Hawai'i tomorrow if they could. They probably feel like stabbing themselves in the eye every time they see a lei on the guy on the Alaska tail. The issue is that their reservations system cannot support Hawai'i flying. It can't support redeyes either, because it can't support flights that leave one day and arrive the next. Once Altea has taken over the entire operation, Aloha.

jfklganyc · Fri Feb 06, 2015 1:29 pm

Quoting N1120A (Reply 2):
I doubt Air Namibia will ever fly to Hawai'i. Southwest's code is WN.

Be nice

MIflyer12 · Fri Feb 06, 2015 1:57 pm

Quoting Raventech (Reply 1):
Its not any range issues that stopped them, its that competition has increased to the point that they are better off just flying to new international destinations than getting and maintaining an ETOPS sub fleet of aircraft to the Islands. Alaska flies 800s all the time to the islands and range is only an issue when the winds are really cranking.

Alaska's 737-800s are configured for 15-18 fewer passengers than Southwest's and at the margin that matters. Bags don't really fly free, either, and it would be interesting to see a study of average checked bag and carryon weight for WN vs. carriers that charge for first or second bags.

SWADawg · Fri Feb 06, 2015 2:06 pm

When either the MAX arrives or the AS Merger is announced, THEN WN will serve Hawaii. We'll just have to see which happens first.

wnflyguy · Fri Feb 06, 2015 2:55 pm

2017 when the 737 MAX arrives.
The 800's are Heavy PIGs in a 175 layout.
Add that plus seasonal headwind, Bags fly free and the additional fuel for Etops.
It gives restrictions to a limited market like OAK-HNL.

Flyguy

B747forever · Fri Feb 06, 2015 3:00 pm

Quoting N1120A (Reply 2):
The issue is that their reservations system cannot support Hawai'i flying. It can't support redeyes either, because it can't support flights that leave one day and arrive the next.

Really, then why can I find the following flight bookable on their website

WN 1521 LAX-MDW 6:30PM- 12:15AM + 1??

usflyguy · Fri Feb 06, 2015 3:02 pm

Quoting N1120A (Reply 2):
It can't support redeyes either, because it can't support flights that leave one day and arrive the next.

WN runs red-eye charters all of the time, especially during football season and march madness.

wnflyguy · Fri Feb 06, 2015 3:20 pm

Quoting B747forever (Reply 7):

WN old domestic and flight flow cowboy system doesn't recognize arrival Times past 0300 HERB.
WN technology development department has worked and tweaked a 1970 Computer system as much as possible.

Over the years WN have tested flights like MCI-BWI that have Arrived into BWI at like 0325 HERB and had connecting flights to a AM departing bank. But unfortunately the system had to many glitches and was reservations agents nightmare trying to fix the problems on the short seasonal test.

The new domestic Amadeus reservations and Otis systems coming online in the future will finally fix the RED EYE problems.

WN flying red eyes is not a IF but When it will come. It's coming but I don't think until like 2016 or 17.

Flyguy

[Edited 2015-02-06 08:14:31]

mtnwest1979 · Fri Feb 06, 2015 4:00 pm

Will WN ever serve Hawai'i? 50/50, they will or won't. Easy answer lol.
Every time I see an 'ever' question, I just want to say that.
Sorry, finally couldn't resist.

S75752 · Fri Feb 06, 2015 4:20 pm

Doesn't WN already do a few transcons that already match or surpass the OAK-Hawaii range?

wnflyguy · Fri Feb 06, 2015 5:07 pm

Quoting S75752 (Reply 11):

Yes but unlike a transcontinental flight OAK-HNL has ETOPS restrictions should a emergency happen.

OAK-BWI the aircraft can divert to hundreds of locations in any type of a Emergency event in-flight.

OAK-HNL (Etops) the aircraft has fewer options in the event of an emergency. Basically turn back to OAK or keep going to the closest Hawaiian airport in the event of a Emergency. To achieve this the extra fuel is tankered on for safety reasons which adds weight.

Flyguy

N1120A · Fri Feb 06, 2015 5:39 pm

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 8):
WN runs red-eye charters all of the time, especially during football season and march madness.

Charters that don't go through their res system. Also, how many leave after 0300 HERB and are considered the next day?

Quoting B747forever (Reply 7):
WN 1521 LAX-MDW 6:30PM- 12:15AM + 1??

Not technically a different day. WN's day is 27 hours long and specially programmed into their res system. If a flight lands after 12:00 a.m. Eastern, its a big problem.

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 4):
Alaska's 737-800s are configured for 15-18 fewer passengers than Southwest's and at the margin that matters. Bags don't really fly free, either, and it would be interesting to see a study of average checked bag and carryon weight for WN vs. carriers that charge for first or second bags.

Not a major factor. The same weights are used on WN as on other carriers for the average sized passenger. Also, weight really isn't an issue for that plane.

Quoting S75752 (Reply 11):
Doesn't WN already do a few transcons that already match or surpass the OAK-Hawaii range?

I think OAK-BWI is their longest flight, which is shorter than LAX-HNL Still not an issue.

Quoting wnflyguy (Reply 12):
Yes but unlike a transcontinental flight OAK-HNL has ETOPS restrictions should a emergency happen.

The 738 is very well proven on the Hawai'i route.

32andBelow · Fri Feb 06, 2015 5:46 pm

That reservation system location is absolutely mind boggling. How did they let that happen and how have they not fixed that like 15 years ago?

INFINITI329 · Fri Feb 06, 2015 5:48 pm

Quoting N1120A (Reply 13):
Not a major factor. The same weights are used on WN as on other carriers for the average sized passenger. Also, weight really isn't an issue for that plane.

I beg to differ, I see weight restrictions all the time on a short 3 hr sector on WN using 738 equipment, even weather isn't an issue. It has a lot to do with bags. I don't see bags flying free,hawaii, the -800 & southwest all in the same sentence.

N1120A · Fri Feb 06, 2015 5:59 pm

Quoting infiniti329 (Reply 15):
I beg to differ, I see weight restrictions all the time on a short 3 hr sector on WN using 738 equipment, even weather isn't an issue.

From Brooklyn? Is WN purposefully blocking a seat or two because they want to pay less for gas? A 3 hour sector without weather shouldn't create a weight issue at all. If that was the case, how on earth would 189 seats fly east/west over Europe constantly?

Quoting 32andBelow (Reply 14):

That reservation system location is absolutely mind boggling. How did they let that happen and how have they not fixed that like 15 years ago?

Its just not something they thought they needed.

Quoting infiniti329 (Reply 15):
I don't see bags flying free,hawaii, the -800 & southwest all in the same sentence.

I do.

usxguy · Fri Feb 06, 2015 6:05 pm

... because at Southwest Airlines, they know best. And its their way or the highway. Nevermind its 2015 and NOT 1978.

But that's the Texas mentality for you. Just look at the Air Tran assimilation. Instead of LEARNING from Air Tran, they said "nope, do it our way".

n471wn · Fri Feb 06, 2015 6:10 pm

Quoting usxguy (Reply 17):
But that's the Texas mentality for you. Just look at the Air Tran assimilation. Instead of LEARNING from Air Tran, they said "nope, do it our way".

You must be joking---the SWA way has yielded the most powerful US carrier in history and you are questioning "do it their way".....perhaps they should do it the "United way".....

N1120A · Fri Feb 06, 2015 6:35 pm

Quoting usxguy (Reply 19):
While folks like United, American, and even crappy lil Air Tran were investing in proper IT infrastructure and systems,

United's IT is horrible, and they went with the poor system.

32andBelow · Fri Feb 06, 2015 6:45 pm

Quoting N1120A (Reply 16):
Its just not something they thought they needed.

Well a high school freshman could figure our you shouldn't artificially restrict yourself.

INFINITI329 · Fri Feb 06, 2015 7:02 pm

Quoting N1120A (Reply 16):
how on earth would 189 seats fly east/west over Europe constantly?

Is this done with over 200+ bags?

Quoting N1120A (Reply 16):
I do.

Ill post some numbers later so you can better understand my train of thought

N1120A · Fri Feb 06, 2015 7:15 pm

Quoting infiniti329 (Reply 22):
Is this done with over 200+ bags?

Bags, extra people, Greek heat, etc.

bobnwa · Fri Feb 06, 2015 7:23 pm

Quoting N1120A (Reply 23):
Bags, extra people, Greek heat, etc

I am aware of Greek food, Greek yogurt, but not greek heat

N1120A · Fri Feb 06, 2015 7:32 pm

Quoting bobnwa (Reply 24):
I am aware of Greek food, Greek yogurt, but not greek heat

Ha! Greece gets very hot in the summer.

steex · Fri Feb 06, 2015 7:33 pm

Quoting B747forever (Reply 7):
WN 1521 LAX-MDW 6:30PM- 12:15AM + 1??

Quoting N1120A (Reply 13):
Not technically a different day. WN's day is 27 hours long and specially programmed into their res system. If a flight lands after 12:00 a.m. Eastern, its a big problem.

I don't know anything about how their systems work, but 12:15 AM Central is most certainly an hour and fifteen minutes after 12:00 AM Eastern.

SXDFC · Sat Feb 07, 2015 6:35 am

People can say whatever they want about Southwest Airlines. I am proud to work for them despite their shortcomings, and that's something that not many people can do, LIKE THE COMPANY THEY WORK For. WN has its issues but every airline has. I'd rather work for a company with a res system from 1978 than work for a company that steals from their own people. Hopefully all the work groups that aren't happy with the current issues get resolved soon. However this thread is about WN and Hawaii..

As much as I love my company ( as stated above ) I'd rather fly to Hawaii on a much more comfortable aircraft with either a Widget or a beautiful girl on the tail, its too warm down there for an Eskmo, even if he wears a Lei. Silly

[Edited 2015-02-06 22:39:16]

strfyr51 · Sat Feb 07, 2015 6:49 am

I do think WN Could if they chose to. But! it would be cost prohibitive to ETOPS Equip all their -800's They migh require s Sub fleet
to do that and that takes Training and Equipment for ETOPS operations. The Rest they should really already Have or they can easily Acquire.
I know some guys who can easily get their ETOPS program going in Maintenance since it Does require some changes.
There are Consultants that do that sort of work also.

SXDFC · Sat Feb 07, 2015 6:51 am

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 28):
I do think WN Could if they chose to. But! it would be cost prohibitive to ETOPS Equip all their -800's They migh require s Sub fleet

There is already a subfleet of ETOPS -800s. These are A/C 8301-8329.

SAAFNAV · Sat Feb 07, 2015 7:20 am

Well, I spoke with a family member who is a WN pilot and someone asked him the same question.

He replied that it won't happen, as it won't be profitable for them.

No one really pays to fly to Hawaii, they just use their loyalty rewards for the tickets there.

Suppose there is some truth to that?

n471wn · Sat Feb 07, 2015 6:01 pm

Quoting SAAFNAV (Reply 30):
Well, I spoke with a family member who is a WN pilot and someone asked him the same question.

He replied that it won't happen, as it won't be profitable for them.

No one really pays to fly to Hawaii, they just use their loyalty rewards for the tickets there.

Suppose there is some truth to that?

Well if a pilot said it then it must be true!!!!!

aloha73g · Sat Feb 07, 2015 6:03 pm

Quoting SAAFNAV (Reply 30):
No one really pays to fly to Hawaii, they just use their loyalty rewards for the tickets there.

Suppose there is some truth to that?

NO. Hawaiian Airlines 2014 net profit up 33% to $69 million
http://m.atwonline.com/finance-data/...ines-2014-net-profit-33-69-million

N1120A · Sat Feb 07, 2015 6:21 pm

Quoting SAAFNAV (Reply 30):
No one really pays to fly to Hawaii, they just use their loyalty rewards for the tickets there.

That's completely and totally untrue. There's a reason Bob Crandall said that he would rather put on another Hawaii frequency than test a marginal new market. Hawaii is consistently profitable, but not a home run.

SANFan · Sat Feb 07, 2015 6:21 pm

Quoting n471wn (Reply 31):
Well if a pilot said it then it must be true!!!!

LOL. You beat me to it!

bb

DualQual · Sat Feb 07, 2015 6:25 pm

Quoting n471wn (Reply 31):

You need to verify it with an FA.

SAAFNAV · Sat Feb 07, 2015 8:23 pm

Quoting n471wn (Reply 31):

Well if a pilot said it then it must be true!!!!!

Haha, I just said what the opinion between them are, and I qualified it with the word 'might'!

N1120A · Sat Feb 07, 2015 9:19 pm

Quoting SAAFNAV (Reply 36):
Haha, I just said what the opinion between them are, and I qualified it with the word 'might'!

Yeah, I should ask my father's, brother's, cousin's, sister's former roommate about that.

EA CO AS · Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:31 pm

Quoting SAAFNAV (Reply 30):
No one really pays to fly to Hawaii, they just use their loyalty rewards for the tickets there.

That was the case 15 years ago, but since then the economics have changed. Hawaii is a money-maker now, as it's domestic travel and has absorbed a lot of shift from what had previously been travel to Mexico and the Caribbean.

usxguy · Sun Feb 08, 2015 12:06 am

don't forget that Southwest also owned a chunk of ATA for a while, and codeshared with them to Hawai'i - so Southwest is aware of what the market can & can't handle - albeit this was YEARS ago.

N1120A · Sun Feb 08, 2015 5:20 am

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 38):
That was the case 15 years ago, but since then the economics have changed.

Even 15 years ago, the cheap fares were sucked up by TZ through Pleasant Hawaiian and the rest did just fine. The airlines ALWAYS severely restricted award capacity. If anything, that has opened up significantly.

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 38):
Hawaii is a money-maker now, as it's domestic travel and has absorbed a lot of shift from what had previously been travel to Mexico and the Caribbean.

Hawai'i has always been a money maker. The difference now is that airlines can fly different, less difficult to fill, types there efficiently. AS has done so well there because the 738 has allowed them to keep fleet commonality and avoid high trip cost risks.

MaverickM11 · Sun Feb 08, 2015 6:23 am

How will WN serve HI without 757s???

Quoting usxguy (Reply 39):
Southwest is aware of what the market can & can't handle

I think they know HI will be a struggle just like Latin America. They will serve Hawaii--they have to be there and eventually get it right. And for the short to medium term, they will lose their shirt, just like Latin America.

Quoting aloha73g (Reply 32):
NO. Hawaiian Airlines 2014 net profit up 33% to $69 million

They must be printing money on interisland and less so to the US, because they are operating several international longhaul markets that are barely even half full.

Quoting S75752 (Reply 11):
Doesn't WN already do a few transcons that already match or surpass the OAK-Hawaii range?

The problem is not the range operationally, it's that the WN model breaks down on longer hauls, especially when AS is in the market as well.

N1120A · Sun Feb 08, 2015 7:09 am

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 42):
The problem is not the range operationally, it's that the WN model breaks down on longer hauls, especially when AS is in the market as well.

I could see them benefiting from the drop in CASM by lengthening out stages.

airplaneboy · Sun Feb 08, 2015 7:20 am

Keep in mind that it is remotely possible that WN is waiting for the 737 MAX to arrive to deploy to Hawaii. Not because of range issues with the current 738s, but more likely due to the more efficient engines and aircraft operating costs- which would help negate WN's higher operating costs to help offset a fare war with current mainland-Hawaii carriers.

Cheers

XT6Wagon · Sun Feb 08, 2015 7:23 am

Quoting N1120A (Reply 43):

I could see them benefiting from the drop in CASM by lengthening out stages.

That was the theory once opon a time, however they went right back to shorter stages for most city pairs. More money to be had with more segments per day than cheapest casm per flight. Maximixing frequency by maximizing one stop flights between major markets is still the goal.

MaverickM11 · Sun Feb 08, 2015 7:43 am

Quoting N1120A (Reply 43):
I could see them benefiting from the drop in CASM by lengthening out stages.

They've had that opportunity for years:

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 45):
That was the theory once opon a time, however they went right back to shorter stages for most city pairs

EA CO AS · Sun Feb 08, 2015 7:45 am

Quoting N1120A (Reply 41):
Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 38):Hawaii is a money-maker now, as it's domestic travel and has absorbed a lot of shift from what had previously been travel to Mexico and the Caribbean.

Hawai'i has always been a money maker.

Actually there was a time for network carriers - late 80s/early to mid 90s in particular - where it was breakeven at best, and ran as a loss-leader for frequent flier programs. "Fly us to your business meetings in Pittsburgh and Tulsa, and soon you'll have enough miles for that free trip to Hawaii!"

The biggest reason for AS jumping into the Hawaii markets was seeing so many Mileage Plan miles being burned on NW going to/from Hawaii; they figured they could at least send people on their own aircraft and lose less than paying NW to carry their customers, while attracting more FFs in the process.

Thanks to AQ/TZ leaving the market, coupled with H1N1 killing Mexico traffic, Hawaii became a hugely profitable proposition for AS.

[Edited 2015-02-07 23:48:40]

N1120A · Sun Feb 08, 2015 8:43 am

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 46):
They've had that opportunity for years:

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 45):
That was the theory once opon a time, however they went right back to shorter stages for most city pairs.

Sure, but that was also at a time where they were getting $199 RT fares on LAX-BWI, and prior to all the unbundling at the legacies. Getting a better yield out of Hawaii changes things.

XT6Wagon · Sun Feb 08, 2015 10:42 am

Quoting N1120A (Reply 48):
Sure, but that was also at a time where they were getting $199 RT fares on LAX-BWI, and prior to all the unbundling at the legacies. Getting a better yield out of Hawaii changes things.

Hawaii for WN needs the 737Max. The fleet needs to grow to just meet current needs in the current destinations. WN has been robbing "marginal" routes for a whole ton of years to get planes into the new major opportunities like DEN and NYC. So no need to hit Hawaii right now with a 737NG where payload performance would be difficult and limiting of the cities they can serve. Too many places to put any frame that arrives in the current network. Maybe if they had such large numbers of 738 that some were on routes with low load factors for most of the segments it would be worth opening a new station in a new state.

When the Max arrives, the improved performance over that range makes it much more appealing. Now the hard part will be deciding more international Vs Hawaii.

MaverickM11 · Sun Feb 08, 2015 11:11 am

Quoting N1120A (Reply 48):
Sure, but that was also at a time where they were getting $199 RT fares on LAX-BWI, and prior to all the unbundling at the legacies. Getting a better yield out of Hawaii changes things.

That's not a CASM issue but a RASM one, which is again is why WN has trouble making transcons work. Barely more than 1% of WN's departures are over 2000 miles, and they've come down in the last couple years. AS on the other hand has no problem with transcons or Hawaii and they have a higher CASM than WN. Cheap fuel and improved pricing *cough* FL *cough* will help but it's just not WN's main talent...yet.

[Edited 2015-02-08 03:14:57]

n471wn · Sun Feb 08, 2015 7:01 pm

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 47):
Hawaii for WN needs the 737Max. The fleet needs to grow to just meet current needs in the current destinations. WN has been robbing "marginal" routes for a whole ton of years to get planes into the new major opportunities like DEN and NYC. So no need to hit Hawaii right now with a 737NG where payload performance would be difficult and limiting of the cities they can serve. Too many places to put any frame that arrives in the current network. Maybe if they had such large numbers of 738 that some were on routes with low load factors for most of the segments it would be worth opening a new station in a new state.

I think you are right on here---an excellent analysis and thoughtful reasoning

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