NBC 4 (WCMH) in Columbus reported earlier today Mayor Michael Coleman, in response to a question about whether the lack of non-stop service to CMH cost Columbus the Democratic National Convention, hinted at a potential significant air service announcement at his press conference next week.

http://www.nbc4i.com/story/28099066/...coming-to-columbus-more-are-needed

WCMH has information leading them to believe it will involve the Bay Area, which obviously indicates either SFO or OAK.

Any predictions or rumblings? UA? VX? WN?

Someone in another thread also mentioned the possibility of a CMH service announcement next week, so if this turns out to be it, I'd say the best bets are either UA to SFO or WN to OAK. VX has bigger fish to fry than CMH, IMO.

Going on the above:

-AA and DL do LAX, and neither has the size in SFO to do battle with UA on such a route nor the stake at CMH (though both are certainly respectable there)

-UA would have the incentive to offer SFO, both to compete with AA/DL to LAX, as well as open the new market that allows Asian connectivity (though admittedly ORD does much of this for UA too)

-WN definitely has the scale at CMH to try dartboard stuff like this (they added DCA just recently!), so they'd have both ends and like UA would bring NorCal to CMH to compete with existing LA service

-VX I just can't see, per Sightseer's comment


Just my back-of-the-envelope rundown of CMH, but I do think it all leans toward UA or WN in a pick-'em bet.

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 1): VX has bigger fish to fry than CMH, IMO.

As unlikely as it seemingly could be, it's certainly something I could see a perfect fit into VX's mantra. CMH is growing and demographically emulating the demo/psychographics of AUS. It seems to be an obvious choice in terms of city type. Population among other factors could hold VX away.

If I had to guess, traditionally speaking I would call it to be WN. However, it's that or UA.

Quoting Runningonempty (Reply 3): CMH is growing and demographically emulating the demo/psychographics of AUS.

CMH is no Austin. AUS is the tech-mecca of the south/southwest and Texas is chock-full of Californians these days. Add in the tourism factor with music in Austin and the beautiful hill country, F1, Intel, Dell, and countless other companies and its clear why AUS can support so many California non-stops (including VX). What is there in Columbus besides a couple insurance companies, Ohio State, and an constantly underperforming hockey team?

Quoting ipodguy7 (Reply 4): What is there in Columbus besides a couple insurance companies, Ohio State, and an constantly underperforming hockey team?

Ummm lets see... Wendy's, White Castle, Bob Evans HQ; "a couple insurance companies" includes the Nationwide HQ; Battelle is significant; The Ohio State University (5th largest university in US); Cardinal Health HQ; a huge JP Morgan Chase operation (second largest single-company office building in the US behind the Pentagon); Huntington Bank HQ; Nationwide Children's Hospital (one of the premiere children's hospitals in the US); the top zoo (Columbus Zoo), Science Center (COSI), and Library system (Columbus Public) in the US; American Electric Power HQ; Department of Defense Supply Center; Honda's operations in nearby Marysville and west central Ohio region; Limited Brands HQ; Abercrombie and Fitch HQ; Express HQ; OhioHealth HQ; Scotts-Miracle Gro HQ (Marysville); and Big Lots HQ.

That's in addition to great neighborhoods like the Short North, Arena District, German Village; world-class shopping like Easton and Polaris; and a fantastic museum (Columbus Museum of Art, COSI, Wexner Center) and parks system (Scioto Mile, Park of Roses, Franklin Park).

Columbus is easily one of the most under-appreciated cities in the US... and it's the 15th largest city in the US, right behind SFO.

Quoting cmhflyguy (Reply 6): and it's the 15th largest city in the US, right behind SFO.

True, but an airport depends on more than just the population within the city borders. Surprisingly, the Columbus Metropolitan area (MSA) is only 28th in the US. That paints quite a different picture. Further, the most recent data I could find from a cursory search indicates that CMH is the 50th busiest airport in the US (granted the data is from 2013, please correct me if anyone has fresher data).

Quoting ipodguy7 (Reply 7): True, but an airport depends on more than just the population within the city borders. Surprisingly, the Columbus Metropolitan area (MSA) is only 28th in the US. That paints quite a different picture. Further, the most recent data I could find from a cursory search indicates that CMH is the 50th busiest airport in the US

And that's why I put in the first part of that comment:

Quoting cmhflyguy (Reply 6): Columbus is easily one of the most under-appreciated cities in the US...

Because people say:

Quoting ipodguy7 (Reply 4): What is there in Columbus besides a couple insurance companies, Ohio State, and an constantly underperforming hockey team?

And don't come here to realize all the other stuff I said in my post. Those of us who live here, we know what a great place it is. The problem is we don't do a good job communicating that and we miss the tourism revenue. Had the DNC picked us, we would have had some significant exposure we need (more than something like The Arnold Classic or Memorial Tournament gives us).

EDIT TO ADD: I'll also add that IND is only ranked 48 and they don't seem to have the same problems CMH has attracting city pairings and airlines.

[Edited 2015-02-13 23:28:09]

Quoting ipodguy7 (Reply 4): and an constantly underperforming hockey team?

Doing better than my Canes at the moment...ugh!

Quoting DeltaRules (Thread starter): NBC 4 (WCMH) in Columbus reported earlier today Mayor Michael Coleman, in response to a question about whether the lack of non-stop service to CMH cost Columbus the Democratic National Convention, hinted at a potential significant air service announcement at his press conference next week.

Columbus really does seem to be an underserved market. CMH will be down to just the big 4 (AA/DL/UA/WN) and AC once the AA/US merger is completed, and G4 offers some ULCC service from that other Columbus airport (LCK). With a metropolitan area population of over 2.3 million, Columbus is the 28th largest market in the entire country. However, the city has paltry air service compared to similar sized markets like Charlotte, Indianapolis, Kansas City and Salt Lake City.

Any new carrier would be a huge deal for Columbus, particularly an ULCC at CMH. We all know WN tends to be pretty expensive these days, and after the loss of truly low fare FL service in the CMH-Florida realm, I think CMH is a major opportunity for F9 and/or NK. F9 may be more likely since they've shown repeated interest in CMH (most recently from TTN), and they seem to be doing quite well in the other big Ohio markets.

In addition to F9 and NK I could see CMH being on the radar for AS and B6. Columbus is now the 4th largest U.S. market unserved by AS (after Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Charlotte), while it is now the 5th largest U.S. market missing from the B6 route map (after Atlanta, Minneapolis/St. Paul, St. Louis and Kansas City). Of course market size isn't everything, I just don't think people realize how big Columbus really is. I could definitely see AS selecting CMH over CLT or B6 resuming CMH (from BOS only) before trying MCI, but then again these carriers may very well opt for smaller markets like RDU (AS) or Hampton Roads (B6) instead.

Quoting DeltaRules (Thread starter): WCMH has information leading them to believe it will involve the Bay Area, which obviously indicates either SFO or OAK.

Columbus is the second largest market without any nonstop service to the San Francisco Bay Area, after Tampa. However, I think CMH stands a far greater chance of getting nonstop Bay Area service than TPA.

Quoting DeltaRules (Thread starter): UA?

Doubtful, even though Columbus is the 4th largest domestic market that UA does not serve from its SFO hub (after Detroit, Tampa and Charlotte, with Detroit being by far the largest and most important). On the Columbus end of things, consider the fact that UA will be by far the weakest domestic carrier at CMH once AA/US are officially merged. On the San Francisco end of things, consider the fact that UA really seems to be struggling on some of those long, thin routes between SFO and smaller domestic markets (i.e. SFO-MSY, SFO-PIT). Unless Columbus has come up with a hefty revenue guarantee/subsidy, I don't see it happening.

Quoting DeltaRules (Thread starter): VX?

Absolutely not. This airline has far bigger fish to fry, like resuming PHL or adding ATL. In the Midwest, you'll see VX at MSP and DTW long before anything else.

Quoting DeltaRules (Thread starter): WN?

They've been busy adding service to business markets lately - ATL (inherited from FL), DCA, and now DAL. A few more additions to key business destinations (BOS and LGA of course, maybe also HOU, LAX, and SFO) would certainly make WN the most attractive carrier for Columbus-based business travelers. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see WN add even more business routes from the likes of CMH and IND.

Regarding UA, I wonder if a E175 could do it. I'm sorta leaning toward no, since it has less range than the 190 that AC does YYZ-SEA with and SFO-CMH is longer, but I suppose that if they were to do it it would be UAX.

Otherwise, WN.

WN releasing it's fall scheduled on Thursday.
This schedule supposedly will have some NEW connecting of the dots.
I could easily see OAK-CMH starting.

Flyguy

My gut feeling is WN. They just added DAL and DCA was announced a few months ago. DAL really isn't much of a surprise, but CMH-DCA seems to be.

Quoting ipodguy7 (Reply 4): What is there in Columbus besides a couple insurance companies, Ohio State, and an constantly underperforming hockey team?

I could've just as easily said the same thing about AUS (F1 circuit, University of Texas, something of a tourist scene, probably something involving oil), but I know better. Both cities have enough to have drawn interest from BA recently, with AUS getting it and CMH being rumored (among others) last year.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 10): I think CMH is a major opportunity for F9 and/or NK. F9 may be more likely since they've shown repeated interest in CMH (most recently from TTN), and they seem to be doing quite well in the other big Ohio markets.

I have to wonder what F9's deal is. They inherited CMH service from YX and operated MKE and MCI. It was then dropped, but they came back on their own with service to TTN, which only lasted until they saw greener pastures at CLE and CVG and pulled up stakes.

Quoting DeltaRules (Reply 13): I have to wonder what F9's deal is

If you figure that out, let me know won't you? We've been scratching out heads down here in NOLA in regards to F9 for a while now...

Quoting DeltaRules (Reply 13): My gut feeling is WN.

Probably not a coincidence that WN is releasing its Fall schedule on that day. WN to OAK/SFO would be a nice win for CMH. Well deserved, I might add.

Quoting cmhflyguy (Reply 8): The problem is we don't do a good job communicating that and we miss the tourism revenue.

There isn't much to be had honestly. It's a cool town, but honestly, not a tourist destination. Sad to say, people that I know that have been have not exactly had rave reviews. The fact of the matter is if the demand were there. .. the service would be there. Or more accurately. .. there is more money to be had elsewhere for the airlines.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 10): In addition to F9 and NK I could see CMH being on the radar for AS and B6. Columbus is now the 4th largest U.S. market unserved by AS (after Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Charlotte), while it is now the 5th largest U.S. market missing from the B6 route map (after Atlanta, Minneapolis/St. Paul, St. Louis and Kansas City). Of course market size isn't everything, I just don't think people realize how big Columbus really is. I could definitely see AS selecting CMH over CLT or B6 resuming CMH (from BOS only) before trying MCI, but then again these carriers may very well opt for smaller markets like RDU (AS) or Hampton Roads (B6) instead.

Not sure how you're qualifying "4th largest U.S. market unserved", but there's a difference between city size and air travel markets. Airlines plan by air travel markets and that has to do with many things, but most importantly: demand. A city's size alone is largely irrelevant. Otherwise JAX would be larger than SFO...

RDU's overall air travel market was 50% larger than CMH's last year (9.5mil vs. 6.35mil pax). Not sure I would consider that one a "smaller market".

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 9): Columbus is the second largest market without any nonstop service to the San Francisco Bay Area, after Tampa. However, I think CMH stands a far greater chance of getting nonstop Bay Area service than TPA.

Any ranking aside, in Q3, 2014 CMH-Bay Area Airports traffic was 431 pax daily (274 to SFO, 78 to OAK, and 79 to SJC) - that seems worth a flight.

Quoting wnflyguy (Reply 11): WN releasing it's fall scheduled on Thursday.

Just to clarify, the schedule release is to be on Thursday, Feb 26, not this coming week (when the Mayor's press conference apparently is.)

I suppose it's possible that a new WN flight could be announced prior to the official schedule release by the carrier but I don't think WN likes, or usually allows, that. Seems to me WN usually hold their cards pretty close until THEY make the announcement.

bb

Quoting cmhflyguy (Reply 5): Ummm lets see... Wendy's, White Castle, Bob Evans HQ; "a couple insurance companies" includes the Nationwide HQ; Battelle is significant; The Ohio State University (5th largest university in US); Cardinal Health HQ; a huge JP Morgan Chase operation (second largest single-company office building in the US behind the Pentagon); Huntington Bank HQ; Nationwide Children's Hospital (one of the premiere children's hospitals in the US); the top zoo (Columbus Zoo), Science Center (COSI), and Library system (Columbus Public) in the US; American Electric Power HQ; Department of Defense Supply Center; Honda's operations in nearby Marysville and west central Ohio region; Limited Brands HQ; Abercrombie and Fitch HQ; Express HQ; OhioHealth HQ; Scotts-Miracle Gro HQ (Marysville); and Big Lots HQ.

I heard the reason behind DL's CMH-BDL flights back in the DL/RP focus city days was insurance, with Columbus and Hartford two big cities in the industry.

Verizon seems to have a decent presence in town as well.

Quoting RDUDDJI (Reply 15): A city's size alone is largely irrelevant. Otherwise JAX would be larger than SFO...

I'm not talking about city population per civic boundaries, I'm talking about metropolitan area populations. Jacksonville is a vast low density city spread across more than 750 square miles of land. Almost 2/3 of the Jacksonville metropolitan area population lives within city limits. In fact, the city of Jacksonville is the largest city by area in the entire continental U.S., thanks to a city-county consolidation back in the 1960s after a local corruption scandal. The boundaries of San Francisco were established more than 100 years earlier, by an 1856 city-county consolidation. San Francisco today is very densely populated (by American standards) but, with less than 50 square miles of land, tiny in terms of physical area. The city only hosts about 10% of the people living in the San Francisco Bay Area. Politically independent San Francisco suburbs such as Emeryville, Fremont, and San Mateo function much in the way that outlying neighborhoods in the city of Jacksonville do. Jacksonville has very few suburbs, while San Francisco has tons of them. The important thing to consider is the entire San Francisco Bay Area population of over 8 million - the nation's 5th largest urban area - versus the Jacksonville metropolitan area population of about 1.5 million people. Jacksonville may be the 13th most populous city in the country, but it is only the 39th most populous metropolitan area in the country, similar in overall market size to places like Greensboro, Hartford, Louisville, and Providence.

Quoting RDUDDJI (Reply 15): RDU's overall air travel market was 50% larger than CMH's last year (9.5mil vs. 6.35mil pax). Not sure I would consider that one a "smaller market".

The Columbus metropolitan area is home to over 2.3 million people, while the Raleigh/Durham area has just over 2 million residents. Both state capital regions are thriving demographically and economically, so it is quite surprising that RDU is doing so much better in terms of air service than CMH.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 17): Just to clarify, the schedule release is to be on Thursday, Feb 26, not this coming week (when the Mayor's press conference apparently is.)

No, the schedule release is Feb 19 and this release will be opening the schedule up through October 30.

[Edited 2015-02-14 11:04:00]

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 20): No, the schedule release is Feb 19 and this release will be opening the schedule up through October 30

Sorry, I stand corrected. (I know that just the other day it was still showing -- somewhere on the WN website -- 2/26 as the release of the extension.)

In that case, I'd say CMH-OAK by WN would be my guess.

bb

Quoting SANFan (Reply 21): In that case, I'd say CMH-OAK by WN would be my guess.

If it is CMH-OAK, with the addition of the other recent OAK additions, HNL and OGG can't be too far behind.

OAK/SFO/SJC is the shortest distance to HNL from the mainland, correct?

Although I do not disagree with the probability that this new service is WN to OAK, there may be some other remote possibilities as well. After all, I don't recall Mayor Coleman making a big deal out of the LAX service by DL or AA. That leads me to believe this may be something a little more significant.
Maybe a couple of flights or a new carrier?
The most likely new carrier would probably be Alaska, but do they have the ability to take on a new city right now?

I also don't think VX is totally out of the question, given that Columbus is a much more urban and "hipster" place than most realize. Further, as some of the other posts mentioned-- CMH will be down the Big 4 and have no competition from F9, B6, or even NK.
Maybe that is just the kind of market that VX would want to get into and establish a unique presence without some of its normal competitors.

How about DL starting a new N/S to SEA? As CMH doesn't currently have SLC service, a DL flight to SEA wouldn't overtly an existing hub route. And would open up some significant connectivity.

Whatever happens, will be good to see CMH getting new service to a new destination. (And still crossing my fingers for BA 788 to LHR from CMH.. someday..)

Chris

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 23): OAK/SFO/SJC is the shortest distance to HNL from the mainland, correct?

Yes.

Quoting brooklynchris13 (Reply 24): I also don't think VX is totally out of the question, given that Columbus is a much more urban and "hipster" place than most realize. Further, as some of the other posts mentioned-- CMH will be down the Big 4 and have no competition from F9, B6, or even NK.

While they have the "trendy/hipster" thing going for them, I think BNA/CMH/RDU are all just a bit too small and too far east for VX right now.

Quoting S75752 (Reply 11): Regarding UA, I wonder if a E175 could do it.

Nope, doesn't have the range west bound unless severely weight restricted.

I wouldn't be surprised if it is UA. Delta funnels a lot of people from the Bay Area, Norcal, and Vegas into LAX and onto their CMH flight. This could give Delta a run for its money.

Quoting cxb744 (Reply 26): I wouldn't be surprised if it is UA. Delta funnels a lot of people from the Bay Area, Norcal, and Vegas into LAX and onto their CMH flight. This could give Delta a run for its money.

That's what I keep coming back to, just too many pluses for UA here. The n/s to SFO/Bay Area for O&D, spreading out West Coast and Asia connections from the current ex-CMH "funnels" of ORD and DEN a bit, and the fact you mention that it will to some extent allow them to compete with DL and AA's LAX service as a West Coast connecting point to potentially steal a few pax away.

Quoting surfandsnow (Reply 19): The Columbus metropolitan area is home to over 2.3 million people, while the Raleigh/Durham area has just over 2 million residents. Both state capital regions are thriving demographically and economically, so it is quite surprising that RDU is doing so much better in terms of air service than CMH

Population only says so much. o&d can be influenced by local economy, if the city receives tourists, business travel/convention scene, and if other local airports are grabbing passengers plus other factors. DEN, SLC, CLT, AUS all have o&d way over what their populations would suggest. Cities like MEM and alot of midwest cities just an example have very low o&d for their populations.

CMH is doing pretty well for Ohio its certainly on the up swing, maybe its o&d hasn't caught up yet. Also I think RDU has alot more business travel, just my opinion I actually dont think ive ever head a friend or anyone i know have to fly to CMH for business? RDU is a pretty common business site i hear people headed to all the time.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 28):

Very true about population, size alone doesn't say much. But it is true that Columbus does have a very respectable business footprint, similar to Cincinnati where the list of businesses is more prestigious than you might think from mere "word association" with the city's name.

Also keep in mind that OSU (like Texas in AUS, or a Minnesota at MSP, or UW at SEA) probably generates a fair bit of leisure travel as well simply from the comings and goings of the students and families.

RDU has a huge catchment area, the whole eastern half of N Carolina plus southern VA will drive there for decent flights, whereas CMH is surrounded by CAK, CLE, DAY, CVG, PIT, etc.

Plus RDU is just absolutely loaded with ex New Yorkers, ex Bostoners, etc., people who fly, people who are transplanted from far away that they'll want to fly. Maybe Pinehurst and the outer banks bring enough tourism to help too?

I don't think CMH has either factor in it's favor. CMH is more drivable to major cities like Chicago, DC, NY too.

Quoting ncflyer (Reply 30): I don't think CMH has either factor in it's favor. CMH is more drivable to major cities like Chicago, DC, NY too.

I don't know what you are talking about here. The Triangle is about an hour closer to New York than Columbus and two hours closer to D.C. Columbus is closer to Chicago, but the Triangle is closer to Atlanta.

Columbus to DC is just under six hours. I think Chicago is a similar number.

Ohio is a deceivingly large state. Not massive, but Columbus to Cincinnati is just under two hours, while Columbus to Cleveland is just over two.

CMH-OAK on WN, it is. Starts August 9th, performance-based contract.

WN's also adding CMH-BOS, so that's DAL, DCA (though that's been known for a while) BOS, and OAK announced in the last week.

I just hope the BOS flight doesn't affect CMH's chances at getting B6.

[Edited 2015-02-19 08:15:06]

Quoting DeltaRules (Reply 33): CMH-OAK on WN, it is. Starts August 9th, performance-based contract.

What do you mean by this?

The deal was struck by a transportation task force in Columbus:

http://www.nbc4i.com/story/28148634/...adds-flights-to-boston-and-oakland

Quoting DeltaRules (Reply 33): I just hope the BOS flight doesn't affect CMH's chances at getting B6.

I'd argue that WN starting BOS-CMH almost guarantees B6 will announce BOS-CMH within a week. B6 protects BOS like NWA used to protect DTW/MSP/MEM.

This should bring some needed competition to DL's pricey service on jungle jets.

So the OAK service is subsidized by CMH. Interesting that they couldn't get the flight to SFO instead, perhaps even on a different carrier.

bb

Quoting SANFan (Reply 37): So the OAK service is subsidized by CMH. Interesting that they couldn't get the flight to SFO instead, perhaps even on a different carrier.

I have the sense that UA isn't interested in talking to these sorts of markets about SFO service. Our similar effort in BNA was officially (and unofficially, I think) agnostic about carrier and airport, and we likewise wound up with WN to OAK.

IND SFO on UA is on some kind of deal with the state of Indiana but it seems to do well ; United said it would not work but IND put up some cash so they went for it

I hope the timing of the CMH-OAK flt. isn't an issue. It leaves at 5:50am. That seems kind of early for a west coast flight. The return at least is at a decent hour.

Quoting DeltaRules (Reply 35): The deal was struck by a transportation task force in Columbus: http://www.nbc4i.com/story/28148634/...adds-flights-to-boston-and-oakland

This is a great idea other airports could easily adopt with some organization and funding. From what I understand the transportation task force is essentially what SCASD does only on a local scale instead of federal money divided nationally.

New flight times:

CMH-OAK 0555-0805 737-700
OAK-CMH 1150-1920 737-700

The flight times offer connections to places like SEA, PDX, LAX, BUR, SNA, SAN, etc. though OAK already has options to those stations through cities such as DEN, LAS, MDW, BWI, etc.

In my opinion Southwest has a pretty impressive schedule at CMH as of Oct. 1:

0550 TPA
0555 OAK
0610 ATL
0610 BWI
0635 MDW
0700 BNA
0700 LAS
0720 RSW
0745 BOS
0905 STL
0940 MDW
1005 DCA
1105 MCO
1155 BWI
1215 MDW
1245 PHX
1315 ATL
1350 MDW
1420 BWI
1455 MDW
1535 LAS
1610 DAL
1630 MCO
1640 MDW
1730 DEN
1745 BNA
1800 BWI
1810 MDW
2010 STL
1910 BOS
1925 ATL
2100 BWI

I come up with 32 daily flights.

Next largest holes on Southwest in my opinion from CMH in no particular order: HOU, LAX, LGA, MCI. LGA (obviously) has slot constraints and LAX has gate constraints.

Edit: FLL is seasonally discontinued..

[Edited 2015-02-19 15:32:08]

I could see WN add CMH-HOU after the international ops ramp up.

Quoting cmhflyguy (Reply 5): Columbus is easily one of the most under-appreciated cities in the US... and it's the 15th largest city in the US, right behind SFO.

Municipal population isn't a great measure.

Quoting surfandsnow (Reply 19): Both state capital regions are thriving demographically and economically, so it is quite surprising that RDU is doing so much better in terms of air service than CMH.

The industry RDU has travels heavily.

Quoting johnyv (Reply 40): I hope the timing of the CMH-OAK flt. isn't an issue. It leaves at 5:50am. That seems kind of early for a west coast flight. The return at least is at a decent hour.

That timing is not uncommon for east-west. UA's single day BWI-SFO also leaves early, at 6:03am. It does allow for connections, and is timed well for east coast pax that they have a full day still in the Bay Area essentially. Presumably they can check emails on the plane also.

WN really has built up quite an operation at CMH. Good on them.

DL's CMH-LAX leaves in the 7:00AM timeframe, so two of the three West Coast flights will be in the morning. AA/US's LAX flight leaves around 5PM.