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lhcvg
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Tue Feb 17, 2015 10:10 pm

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 48):

I've made the argument for some time that IMHO DL has a very good idea what they can sustain at CVG based on the total O&D mix, and that pretty much everything left that isn't an obvious leisure destination like an RSW is self-sustaining or contractually valuable. My thinking is that DL would have no incentive to operate service at CVG at the level they do if it wasn't either paying it's own way, or met a contractual need that is otherwise valuable to them.

Quoting william (Reply 49):
One have to wander why Spirit or SWA has not swooped into CVG. Maybe it speaks to CVG's O&D traffic.


And that is the age old question! LCC's have tried in the past but nothing has stuck. G4 and F9 are the only two I can recall that have had any kind of traction to them. But so far they seem to be carving out a niche for themselves.

I should add that to me WN is a much different animal than G4/F9/NK. WN would put some real business markets in play that would thus be a much bigger threat to DL's base than leisure carriers nibbling around the edges.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Tue Feb 17, 2015 10:33 pm

CVG has a 73H pilot base in part also because DL performs 737 maint

Quoting LHCVG (Reply 50):
And that is the age old question! LCC's have tried in the past but nothing has stuck. G4 and F9 are the only two I can recall that have had any kind of traction to them. But so far they seem to be carving out a niche for themselves.

I should add that to me WN is a much different animal than G4/F9/NK. WN would put some real business markets in play that would thus be a much bigger threat to DL's base than leisure carriers nibbling around the edges.

It's a matter of priorities and allocation of scare assets. Right now it seems they still have higher priorities, like what they are doing with at DAL in 2015.

WN if/when they come in would probably just go after their top 3-5 pseudo-hubs - MDW, DEN, BWI, maybe STL, and MCO.
 
lhcvg
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Tue Feb 17, 2015 11:07 pm

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 51):

I don't doubt that, my point was just that if WN comes they probably will start like you describe with service to 3-5 of their hubs that they don't call hubs, and that this will represent a much bigger existential threat to DL at CVG than the ankle biting from F9 and G4 given WN's scale and reach (not to mention brand ID).
 
WaywardMemphian
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Wed Feb 18, 2015 12:24 am

Quoting DeltaXNA (Reply 33):
is the XNA flight subsidized?

P&G has a good sized operation out of Fayetteville that services Walmart just up the road, I'm not sure just how much travel between NWA and Cincy is needed. Walmart has it's own corporate fleet.
 
jb1087xna
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Wed Feb 18, 2015 1:39 am

Quoting WaywardMemphian (Reply 53):

Quoting DeltaXNA (Reply 33):
is the XNA flight subsidized?

P&G has a good sized operation out of Fayetteville that services Walmart just up the road, I'm not sure just how much travel between NWA and Cincy is needed. Walmart has it's own corporate fleet.

I don't really know why it's needed. Switching it to DTW would provide many more connection opportunities, so I guess that WM/P&G relationship is enough to hold it for now.
 
lpdal
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Wed Feb 18, 2015 6:54 pm

How disappointing, but not surprising. The place has been cut, and cut, and cut some more, so I'm surprised there is anything left to cut. Given that Delta has stated intentions to retire the entire 50-seater fleet, I wonder if that will mean anything for the struggling hub? Or former hub? It is a nice airport, and the staff are very senior. In fact, a friend recently had a MX delayed bird in the evening to DFW and the station manager bought Chick-A-Filet for the entire passenger manifest--now that is impressive. Usually, you have to wrangle with airport ground staff just to get a $10 food voucher on an international flight. Very amazing to hear! )

-LPDAL

[Edited 2015-02-18 11:23:09]
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michman
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Wed Feb 18, 2015 8:00 pm

Quoting lpdal (Reply 55):
Given that Delta has stated intentions to retire the entire 50-seater fleet

They have never stated such intentions. They have a specific target of 100 50-seaters.

[Edited 2015-02-18 12:01:18]
 
lpdal
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Wed Feb 18, 2015 8:07 pm

Thanks for the clarification, when I visited recetly over half the Delta aircraft at the airport were CRJ-200s or ERJ-145s (and AA/US/UA) so I was a bit baffled as to how such aircraft would be replaced. Obviously, some former CR2 routes do not have the capacity for a 717 or even CR7, so I was wondering if they were going to be replaced or just cut. Nevertheless, compared to UA's fleet of 378 50-seaters, and AA's combined fleet of exactly 400 fifty-seaters, just 100 active frames is a very small amount.

-LPDAL

[Edited 2015-02-18 12:16:34]
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DC9RHI
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Wed Feb 18, 2015 8:40 pm

Quoting sxf24 (Reply 7):
Or the opposite. Didn't they make some sort of service commitment related to the terminal deal? Is it over?

Lease deal ends in 2020. Ticket counter and terminal. That's when it will change from hub or focus city to just normal service.

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 13):
I wonder how many people in metro Cincinnati make the drive to DAY, SDF, or LEX to get a cheaper fare.

Many people do. DAY, SDF, LEX, IND, and CMH are all viable options. But let's be clear - the "highest airfare in the country" label is from Delta and only Delta. Last month, N-S to LGA was $1400 RT on DL. It was only $500 if you are willing to connect in CLT, DCA, or PHL on US/AA. There's no way I, or my company, can justify almost 3x the fare to go non-stop.

Build a new airport between Dayton and Cincinnati and close both CVG and DAY - then you would have something.
 
B4REAL
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Wed Feb 18, 2015 11:17 pm

Quoting DC9RHI (Reply 58):
Many people do. DAY, SDF, LEX, IND, and CMH are all viable options. But let's be clear - the "highest airfare in the country" label is from Delta and only Delta. Last month, N-S to LGA was $1400 RT on DL. It was only $500 if you are willing to connect in CLT, DCA, or PHL on US/AA. There's no way I, or my company, can justify almost 3x the fare to go non-stop.

I love the CVG-LGA route bit also... 1 of the routes currently are on mainline, 5x on DL Connection for the weekday..
B4REAL, spelled like it sounds & @RickVanover on Twitter
 
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mayor
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Thu Feb 19, 2015 1:46 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 35):
Horrible timing.
Quoting WaywardMemphian (Reply 53):
P&G has a good sized operation out of Fayetteville that services Walmart just up the road, I'm not sure just how much travel between NWA and Cincy is needed. Walmart has it's own corporate fleet.

Except usually Walmart doesn't fly TO the suppliers........the suppliers fly TO Walmart.

Quoting michman (Reply 56):

Quoting lpdal (Reply 55):
Given that Delta has stated intentions to retire the entire 50-seater fleet

They have never stated such intentions. They have a specific target of 100 50-seaters.

I thought DL was trying to get the 50 seaters down to 125 aircraft?

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 48):
I think a lot expected it to survive because of the business community in CVG, whereas MEM has a complete lack of.

When it's all said and done, it will probably be a large focus city -- not that it already could be categorized as one.

I think a lot forgot that originally, CVG was opened as a reliever hub for ATL. Then, with DL's growth in the 80s and 90s, it morphed into a full fledged hub. Things change in this industry.......a city that was a hub once, may not be one tomorrow, for many reasons. When I worked at ORD in the 70s, we (DL) had 90 outbound flights per day and I don't think it ever went above that. At that time, ATL was the ONLY actual hub that we had.
"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
 
WaywardMemphian
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Thu Feb 19, 2015 2:10 am

Quoting mayor (Reply 60):
Except usually Walmart doesn't fly TO the suppliers........the suppliers fly TO Walmart.

Oh, I know that. Just Walmart folks aren't as likely to use the airport for their travels. Walmart has long mandated that suppliers have an office in NWA. P&G has had a long presence in NWA so much so they underwrite/sponsor lots of stuff locally like the touring Broadway shows. I think the Tyson acquisition of Hillshire will have some impact on airport use. There's three Fortune 500 companies up here, don't think many outside the area realize that. Big ones at that. Walmart is tops retail, Tyson is tops in protein and JB Hunt is tops in publically traded logistics. If the growth numbers at XNA continues, it'll have to be serviced by larger planes or increased frequencies on the RJs. Much of the forcasted growth is in the 25 to 40 year old range so O&D will grow, not just business.

Back to Cincy, I hadn't heard a peep about that charter starting service to Memphis via the Memphis Press, I know International Paper intends on new acquisitions and is readying a new tower on their HQ campus. Air freight will get a boost since Target is opening a new DC geared to online fulfillment. Memphis recently hired away one of American's top route guys to help shape the growth of O&D from there and Fed Ex. Looking forward to the redo and then consolidation to Terminal B.
 
lhcvg
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Thu Feb 19, 2015 2:53 am

Quoting DC9RHI (Reply 58):
Build a new airport between Dayton and Cincinnati and close both CVG and DAY - then you would have something.

That's always been the pipe dream my dad and I would conjure up during summer nights on the deck -- build a central airport somewhere around Wilmington/Lebanon/etc. to serve the whole Cincy-Dayton-Columbus area and be done with it. Obviously a pipe dream as it would require at least 1 major new highway (NW-SE from the airport to Dayton, though 71 would cover Cincy and Cbus), some beefing up to the West (northern Cincy suburbs/Middletown area), and probably some sort of HSR to at least the Columbus and Cincinnati city centers.

But just because the logistics of getting there would be impractical without major investment doesn't mean it wouldn't be a good idea! Should add here that as a DC resident, I have plenty of local jokes about Metro to IAD but I will let that horse lie for now.
  
 
flyguy89
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Thu Feb 19, 2015 3:31 am

Quoting compensateme (Thread starter):
With the reduction in 50-seat jets, CVG will be experiencing its most significant cuts in service in several years this upcoming summer.

Disappointing to say the least. The Enquirer had an article today about the cuts, which included yet another quote from Delta "re-affirming their commitment to the hub" and its "key role in the Delta network". I fail to see what DL's long-term plan is with CVG and the ridiculous dance they continue performing, "CVG, you're profitable, we're committed to you...but let's just trim you down 10% here..."

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 10):
And of course G4 is less than daily.

G4 is actually daily or double-daily on certain days to both Orlando and Punta Gorda.

Quoting N867DA (Reply 12):
I wonder how many people in metro Cincinnati make the drive to DAY, SDF, or LEX to get a cheaper fare.


Many do, however that's beginning to change with low-cost travel options now finally being available at CVG.

Quoting steeler83 (Reply 17):
I think we can all safely say that MEM and now CVG are no longer hubs in the DL system.


Certainly not a leap, I just can't understand why DL continues to insist otherwise.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 19):
For any CVG customer paying out of their own pocket, hard to say whether there's anything to be grateful about.

Depends on what kind of business you are. The Fortune 500's and Fortune 1000's most certainly have agreements with DL in place at fares agreeable to them.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 25):
Quoting enilria (Reply 6):

Yes, Delta only made $4.5 billion in profits last year, clearly something had to change improve performance. LOL

Yes just because they are profitable, making positive changes to the network is stupid.


Very understandable, but just unfortunate and disappointing that they continue to delay the inevitable.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 26):
Airfares are killing CVG businesses more than anything

Then they'll complain about the lack of nonstops...it's a vicious cycle and everybody wants their cake and to eat it too.

Quoting Flymichael21 (Reply 30):
I understand winter travel is big to MCO, but didn't realize it was that big of a difference compared to the summer.

It doesn't help that CVG-Orlando now has three carriers flying the route either.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 35):
Subsidized by P&G.

None of the DL CVG routes are subsidized. You can argue that it's defacto subsidized with P&G being the largest customer, but that's the nice thing about the current set-up, none of the service is being subsidized.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 35):
It's why every day in the news everybody's pissed off at the KCAB.


And for no reason quite honestly, other than an inherent Ohio vs. Kentucky bias against the fact that their airport is in Kentucky and run by hillbillies. Most non-avgeek haven't the first clue about how the airline industry or airport management works.

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 43):
Did anyone really expect CVG to maintain pre NW merger operations?


Nope. I knew the writing was on the wall the day the merger was announced, though I was always open to being proven wrong which unfortunately has not been the case.

Quoting william (Reply 49):
Maybe it speaks to CVG's O&D traffic.


G4 and F9 certainly seem to think otherwise.

Quoting DC9RHI (Reply 58):
Lease deal ends in 2020. Ticket counter and terminal.

...when they'll probably de-hub and try to blame it on the KCAB for not negotiating some obscenely favorable lease terms.

Quoting LHCVG (Reply 62):
That's always been the pipe dream my dad and I would conjure up during summer nights on the deck -- build a central airport somewhere around Wilmington/Lebanon/etc.

Coulda shoulda woulda. The current set-up isn't all terrible by any means, though light rail from downtown to CVG should be a long-term goal.
 
N1120A
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Thu Feb 19, 2015 3:39 am

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 44):
I could definitely see PHX becoming a decent Mexican gateway for WN, once HOU is up to speed.

WN has basically stated their intentions to focus their US West-Mexico flying out of LAX.
Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
 
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jfklganyc
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Thu Feb 19, 2015 3:43 am

Quoting DC9RHI (Reply 58):
Lease deal ends in 2020. Ticket counter and terminal. That's when it will change from hub or focus city to just normal service.

It will be gone before that. Just look at attrition trend. They don't have 5 years worth of flights left.
 
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mayor
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Thu Feb 19, 2015 6:57 am

Quoting WaywardMemphian (Reply 61):

Quoting mayor (Reply 60):
Except usually Walmart doesn't fly TO the suppliers........the suppliers fly TO Walmart.

Oh, I know that. Just Walmart folks aren't as likely to use the airport for their travels. Walmart has long mandated that suppliers have an office in NWA. P&G has had a long presence in NWA so much so they underwrite/sponsor lots of stuff locally like the touring Broadway shows. I think the Tyson acquisition of Hillshire will have some impact on airport use. There's three Fortune 500 companies up here, don't think many outside the area realize that. Big ones at that. Walmart is tops retail, Tyson is tops in protein and JB Hunt is tops in publically traded logistics. If the growth numbers at XNA continues, it'll have to be serviced by larger planes or increased frequencies on the RJs. Much of the forcasted growth is in the 25 to 40 year old range so O&D will grow, not just business.

Living in FSM, I know plenty about NWA. What I don't understand is how the 2nd largest city in Arkansas plays second fiddle to NWA, almost every time. But, that's for another thread, another time.

PM me if you'd like to discuss that subject.
"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
 
michman
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Thu Feb 19, 2015 7:17 am

Quoting mayor (Reply 60):
I thought DL was trying to get the 50 seaters down to 125 aircraft?

Oops, yes, it's 125. The Cincinnati article misquoted DL and said 100 50-seaters.
 
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AirportRival
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:15 am

Quoting WaywardMemphian (Reply 61):
Back to Cincy, I hadn't heard a peep about that charter starting service to Memphis via the Memphis Press, I know International Paper intends on new acquisitions and is readying a new tower on their HQ campus. Air freight will get a boost since Target is opening a new DC geared to online fulfillment. Memphis recently hired away one of American's top route guys to help shape the growth of O&D from there and Fed Ex. Looking forward to the redo and then consolidation to Terminal B.

Unfortunately I haven't heard anything either since this article http://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnat...add-destination-city.html?page=all from Dec. 2014 talked about both MEM and BNA being added to their network. However, I did recieve an email from Ultimate Air to fill out this survey http://us8.campaign-archive2.com/?u=...amp;id=04bd56060f&e=0a24a42d6f to help them decide their next destination. MEM and BNA were both choices with Cleveland, DC, and Atlanta, as well as having the option to enter your own preference. So I'm not sure where they'll be flying to next or when now.
 
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lightsaber
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Thu Feb 19, 2015 12:22 pm

DL is now in an advanced part of their transition away from 50 seaters. Any routes or destinations not sustainable with mainline will have trouble. For until DL is able to reduce their RJ fleet, are they not near their cap in 76 seat RJs?
I believe DL must also increase their mainline fleet, but I have forgotten the exact details of the pilot contract.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 19):
It's an airport that's very ripe for ULCC invasion.

Due to the high connections, even the stimulus effect of ULCC might not be able to compete on many routes. I think LCCs are likely to increase at CVG, but the high connections imply the direct flights might struggle on their own.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
MIflyer12
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Thu Feb 19, 2015 2:14 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 69):
DL is now in an advanced part of their transition away from 50 seaters. Any routes or destinations not sustainable with mainline will have trouble. For until DL is able to reduce their RJ fleet, are they not near their cap in 76 seat RJs?
I believe DL must also increase their mainline fleet, but I have forgotten the exact details of the pilot contract.
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 69):
Any routes or destinations not sustainable with mainline will have trouble.

There can be 325 2-class RJs (up from about 290 now) with 88 717s in the fleet, and a cap of 450 aircraft at Delta Connection in total at that point. Routes than can't support decent frequency with CR7s are in trouble but that's a much smaller increment of capacity than mainline.

If DL wants more than 325 it needs to keep adding 717s or 319s (or get pilots to amend the pilot working agreement to have another mainline type qualify).

As DL works the 50-seater count down to 125 it may do more routing rationalization at airports that get service on nothing but RJs but into multiple hubs. Think of FWA today:

DTW 4x CRJ
ATL 4x CRJ
MSP 1X CRJ

IMHO, that MSP flight is in jeopardy. Travelers to destinations not served n/s from ATL or MSP would need to double-connect -- or fly AA or UA through ORD (and all those flights are single-class RJ, too).
 
tommy767
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Thu Feb 19, 2015 6:50 pm

Quoting mayor (Reply 60):
I think a lot forgot that originally, CVG was opened as a reliever hub for ATL. Then, with DL's growth in the 80s and 90s, it morphed into a full fledged hub. Things change in this industry.......a city that was a hub once, may not be one tomorrow, for many reasons. When I worked at ORD in the 70s, we (DL) had 90 outbound flights per day and I don't think it ever went above that. At that time, ATL was the ONLY actual hub that we had.

Very true, but the mass amounts of mainline and international flights that CVG had at it's peak in the early 2000s was nothing short of incredible for a midwest city outside of ORD. It's hard to look back, sans the 1x 763 to CDG which I'm still amazed is still around.

I have to say that the DL RJ terminal (or compound) CVG closed was a total depressing dump. I don't miss it at all. I remember I almost stepped in vomit flagged off by a caution sign flying EWR-CVG-MCO in 2005.

My last time at CVG was in 3/08 flying LAX-CVG-BWI. Back then the RJ terminal was still open and B was packed with mainline. Lots of M80s and 738s.
"KEEP CLIMBING" -- DELTA
 
lpdal
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Thu Feb 19, 2015 8:37 pm

The daily 767 to CDG is there for General Electric Aviation's headquarters and engine factory in Cincy to shuttle engine components back and forth between Paris and the US (Source), with some very likely continuing onto the Airbus operation in Toulouse (TLS). It is not there for Proctor and Gamble as [incorrectly] previously stated. A portion of the cargo usually shipped on that flight might be that of P&G, but certainly not a majority and for all intents and purposes, the flight is there for GEA. Not to mention that CVG is not too unique in the fact that it has CDG service--only in the way that it is daily scheduled service--PHL, PIT, ORD, and EWR all have either SKED or SEAS service to Charles de Gaulle themselves.

Quoting Wall Street Journal:
Or consider Paris and Cincinnati. While Delta Air Lines Inc. has slashed its international flights from Cincinnati over the past decade, it has spared the daily Paris flight partly because of the route's lucrative cargo: 4.2 million pounds of jet-engine parts ferried each year between factories near the two cities.

As for the airport itself, it's basically like every other medium-sized airport with a small "hub" operation (hence my confusion as to why a thread or big shebang is started every time something "new" occurs in CVG). It has some points going for it however, with the 1) excellent service (as mentioned before, a station manager there bought Chick-A-Filet for an entire flight to DFW when the airplane went tech and was delayed), 2) emptiness (no need to worry about being run over, no loudness, no humongous crowds), 3) tall ceilings (much like TPA, CVG has tall ceilings everywhere), 4) The onsite DoubleTree is very nice and comforting, and 5) they have this excellent Chili Dog place whose name escapes my mind but was downright delicious.

-LPDAL

[Edited 2015-02-19 13:19:45]
TWU represented. All of my views and posted content are mine alone, and should not be viewed as official communication from my employer, its subsidiaries thereof, or any other entities or airlines.
 
Rdh3e
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Thu Feb 19, 2015 8:50 pm

Quoting LPDAL (Reply 57):
compared to UA's fleet of 378 50-seaters, and AA's combined fleet of exactly 400 fifty-seaters, just 100 active frames is a very small amount.
http://ir.unitedcontinentalholdings....nix.zhtml?c=83680&p=irol-fleetInfo

DL is just way ahead. UA is now at 322 as of the end of 2014 with a plan to reduce to 242 by year end, down by 80 frames YoY. Given a couple more years, 125-150 seems possible for UA as well.
 
Shields
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Thu Feb 19, 2015 8:50 pm

Quoting LPDAL (Reply 72):

The daily 767 to CDG is there for General Electric Aviation's headquarters and engine factory in Cincy to shuttle engine components back and forth between Paris and the US (Source), with some very likely continuing onto the Airbus operation in Toulouse (TLS). It is not there for Proctor and Gamble as [incorrectly] previously stated.

Not sure that this is entirely accurate; P&G employees account for a non-trivial percentage of O&D passengers on the flight. On another forum, folks have described the Business Elite section of CVG-CDG as an informal P&G happy hour.

Look, as you suggest, it is not that surprising that a city of Cincinnati's size has a single nonstop flight to Europe. PIT does; CLE has historically had trans-Atlantic flights. Perhaps GE's presence explains why the flight is operated with a 763 as opposed to a 752, but GE alone is not the only thing keeping the flight alive.
 
lpdal
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Thu Feb 19, 2015 8:56 pm

For the cargo, yes. I wasn't talking about passengers. I doubt you can transport large aircraft engine parts in the passenger cabin. Of course, it's not the only reason the flight exists but probably near 80% of it.

Klaxons would wail in CVG if that flight was removed. Some companies who badgered Delta to restore CVG to its previous (massively unprofitable) 600-flight-a-day state have already moved on, a prime example being Chiquita Banana. Others, such as P&G and GEA, have stayed.

-LPDAL

[Edited 2015-02-19 12:59:45]
TWU represented. All of my views and posted content are mine alone, and should not be viewed as official communication from my employer, its subsidiaries thereof, or any other entities or airlines.
 
dynkrisolo
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Thu Feb 19, 2015 9:32 pm

Quoting Shields (Reply 74):
Quoting LPDAL (Reply 72):

The daily 767 to CDG is there for General Electric Aviation's headquarters and engine factory in Cincy to shuttle engine components back and forth between Paris and the US (Source), with some very likely continuing onto the Airbus operation in Toulouse (TLS). It is not there for Proctor and Gamble as [incorrectly] previously stated.

Not sure that this is entirely accurate; P&G employees account for a non-trivial percentage of O&D passengers on the flight. On another forum, folks have described the Business Elite section of CVG-CDG as an informal P&G happy hour.

Cargo can make the route more viable, but pax revenue has to be the primary revenue source. If there is no adequate demand in the main cabin, the cargo can have other options: go through ATL, truck to DTW, etc. Nonstop is not critical for cargo.
 
lhcvg
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:25 pm

Quoting dynkrisolo (Reply 76):

And the combo is exactly why the route sticks around in this case. I won't touch whether the cargo or the BE cabin "makes" the flight, but I think we can all agree that the real point is simply that whatever the ratio, the equation works for DL to operate the route.
 
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mayor
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:33 pm

Quoting dynkrisolo (Reply 76):

Cargo can make the route more viable, but pax revenue has to be the primary revenue source. If there is no adequate demand in the main cabin, the cargo can have other options: go through ATL, truck to DTW, etc. Nonstop is not critical for cargo.

However, in many cases, it is the cargo that makes the flight break even.
"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
 
lhcvg
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:42 pm

Quoting mayor (Reply 78):
However, in many cases, it is the cargo that makes the flight break even.

There is old joke that UA would fly an empty plane to PVG if they had to because the eastbound cargo (ex-Shanghai bound for the U.S.) was so profitable they could make money on that alone. Obviously an exaggeration, but stands to your point about the value of cargo.
 
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AirportRival
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Thu Feb 19, 2015 11:01 pm

Quoting LPDAL (Reply 72):
5) they have this excellent Chili Dog place whose name escapes my mind but was downright delicious.

It had to be either a Skyline or Gold Star Chili cheese coney. I love me some Skyline.
 
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AirportRival
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Thu Feb 19, 2015 11:05 pm

I'm curious if the cargo is the primary reason that DL keeps the route open. If the route was to get cancelled then I can't imagine GE getting too upset considering that DHL has a major hub at the same airport.

I know there is a decent amount of local companies in Cincinnati that use the route.
 
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mayor
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Fri Feb 20, 2015 12:23 am

Quoting AirportRival (Reply 81):
I'm curious if the cargo is the primary reason that DL keeps the route open. If the route was to get cancelled then I can't imagine GE getting too upset considering that DHL has a major hub at the same airport.

I know there is a decent amount of local companies in Cincinnati that use the route.




It has been my experience, in my 33+ years with DL, some in cargo, that DL would not likely keep a route in operation, just to haul cargo. They are first and foremost, a passenger carrier and that is what their emphasis is......passengers, with cargo being the "gravy".


When I was in TLV, helping with the transition from PA in '91, the flight to JFK (with a stop in Paris) was hauling 25-30k in cargo every day it operated and, while the seats were full, upstairs, they were not all generating revenue. It seems that TLV was the most active station in PA's system for FF's and this carried over to DL. So, most of the pax, upstairs were redeeming their miles. Consequently, after a time, the TLV service was shut down because they weren't making any money on this particular flight.
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Fri Feb 20, 2015 2:50 am

Quoting AirportRival (Reply 80):
It had to be either a Skyline or Gold Star Chili cheese coney. I love me some Skyline.
Quoting LPDAL (Reply 72):
5) they have this excellent Chili Dog place whose name escapes my mind but was downright delicious.

Yes, it is Gold Star - and I used to love connecting thru CVG just for that!!
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cfichad
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Fri Feb 20, 2015 3:07 am

I was just at CVG on Sunday morning and I was blown away at how downright depressing the airport is compared to what it was. It was a great airport to change planes in and to be a part of. Sadly its time has come and gone and CVG desperately needs to go a different direction. The fact that it is not a high O&D Market has no bearing on the fact that the infrastructure is there to create a nice east/west hub for a Jetblue type of operation. I doubt it would happen but it would be nice to see.
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Fri Feb 20, 2015 3:10 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 69):
Due to the high connections, even the stimulus effect of ULCC might not be able to compete on many routes. I think LCCs are likely to increase at CVG, but the high connections imply the direct flights might struggle on their own.

Can you clarify? Not sure I understand what you mean by "high connections".

Quoting LPDAL (Reply 72):
The daily 767 to CDG is there for General Electric Aviation's headquarters and engine factory in Cincy to shuttle engine components back and forth between Paris and the US (Source), with some very likely continuing onto the Airbus operation in Toulouse (TLS). It is not there for Proctor and Gamble as [incorrectly] previously stated.

That's not really an accurate characterization. The source article, which I've read before, states that the cargo is only part of the reason. As pointed out, the bulk of the revenue and profit for passenger carriers comes from passengers, DHL has a direct cargo flight from CVG to CDG, so it's not like DL even has a monopoly for cargo on the route.

It'd correct to say that both P&G and GE Aviation (and SNECMA/SAFRAN) are probably two of the flight's biggest patrons, Business Elite is often full and PDEW numbers for CVG-CDG are ~36...and that's just to Paris and doesn't include connections beyond, into Western Europe.
 
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Fri Feb 20, 2015 4:06 am

Quoting cfichad (Reply 84):
Sadly its time has come and gone and CVG desperately needs to go a different direction. The fact that it is not a high O&D Market has no bearing on the fact that the infrastructure is there to create a nice east/west hub for a Jetblue type of operation. I doubt it would happen but it would be nice to see.

It's not up to CVG to go in a different direction, its for an airline to express an interest in building such an operation.

With current aircraft range and capabilities, B6 has almost zero need to build an E-W hub in a place like CVG.
 
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Fri Feb 20, 2015 12:54 pm

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 70):
There can be 325 2-class RJs (up from about 290 now) with 88 717s in the fleet, and a cap of 450 aircraft at Delta Connection in total at that point.

The 88 717s will not happen until December of this year. But per the link below, DL must just add 1.25 mainline per new 76 seat RJ. Or for every 5 717s, they may add 4 E-175s.   

Either way, DL is in the process of shrinking from 353 50 seaters to 125:

http://crankyflier.com/2012/05/24/de...perience-with-new-pilot-agreement/

That means some cities are in trouble. CVG is a hub I would expect to shrink further in 2015.  
Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 85):
Can you clarify? Not sure I understand what you mean by "high connections".

I mean that many routes are low O&D with a high fraction of connecting passengers. Even with the stimulation of lower fares from a ULCC, those routes will not work without hubbing (connecting butts). Thus higher ULCC penetration would not grow service as much as expected.


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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Fri Feb 20, 2015 5:50 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 87):
That means some cities are in trouble.

I just noticed that my own, small spoke of FSM is being reduced to 2 FSM-ATL flights a day on CRJs, but in September they are being upgauged to CR7s, which is an improvement, at least.
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WaywardMemphian
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Fri Feb 20, 2015 6:17 pm

Quoting mayor (Reply 88):

I just noticed that my own, small spoke of FSM is being reduced to 2 FSM-ATL flights a day on CRJs, but in September they are being upgauged to CR7s, which is an improvement, at least.

FSM has been experiencing gains as well, up past 90,000 for last year. I wonder how that will effect their renewed passenger growth. The City Wire website stays on top of the pass numbers but they don't get into how full those flights are.
 
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Fri Feb 20, 2015 6:23 pm

Quoting cfichad (Reply 84):
I was just at CVG on Sunday morning and I was blown away at how downright depressing the airport is compared to what it was

I'm sure this has all been said before... CVG became what it was because of Comair/DL making it a hub. The first all-jet midwest hub was appealing at a time when AA had it's ATR's and NW had it's S340's. Ease of CVG won out over weather and delays at ORD, DTW, MKE, MSP. Terminal C was the crossroads of the midwest. When all that went away thanks to economy/consolidation/poor airline management, well that was it. CVG was built out to serve what it had to serve at the time. O&D is hurt by DL's stupid high fares and proximity of DAY,CMH, LEX, SDF, and IND. To people in the midwest, it's nothing to hop in the car and drive 90 or 100 minutes to get to a cheaper airport. It's part of the mentality of living here. If a family of 4 can save $150 per person on airfare, they will drive to one of those 5 other airports without even blinking.
 
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Fri Feb 20, 2015 7:02 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 2):
Queue the choir who still insists CVG is a self-sustaining high yield reliever hub

If DL hadn't merged with NW, and if ATL hadn't built a fifth runway and a separate terminal for international flights, then CVG would be a larger operation than it is now. But with the merger and the expansion at ATL, there isn't much need for CVG.

Yes, Cincinnati has P&G and Convergys headquarters, but other hubs, such as ATL, ORD/MDW, DTW, and DFW have far larger corporate bases generating more O&D traffic than Cincinnati can generate.
 
WaywardMemphian
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Fri Feb 20, 2015 7:48 pm

Quoting ckfred (Reply 91):

If DL hadn't merged with NW, and if ATL hadn't built a fifth runway and a separate terminal for international flights, then CVG would be a larger operation than it is now. But with the merger and the expansion at ATL, there isn't much need for CVG.

Yeah, yeah. Same for Memphis. Ifs and buts. Unless new airlines want to take advantage of existing infrastructure and use the massive amount of space each of these airports offer and likely incentives from their states to do so. Memphis sees the future and consolidating to B terminal over the next few years will make it very nice and easier to navigate. For years my friends and family drove to LR and Nashville to fly cheaper now they starting to finally use THEIR airport. My brother is now flying Southwest to Tampa for their two weeks At Longboat every year when they once just drove due to the high fares. The last thing anyone in Memphis wants to do is spend time, any time at Hartsfield.

Where are all these 50 seaters Delta is grounding going?
 
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Fri Feb 20, 2015 8:24 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 87):
The 88 717s will not happen until December of this year. But per the link below, DL must just add 1.25 mainline per new 76 seat RJ. Or for every 5 717s, they may add 4 E-175s.   

Either way, DL is in the process of shrinking from 353 50 seaters to 125:

http://crankyflier.com/2012/05/24/de...perience-with-new-pilot-agreement/

That means some cities are in trouble. CVG is a hub I would expect to shrink further in 2015.

Delta's CVG ops may shrink further but most of DL's 50-seater reduction is already in place: DL went from a peak of ~500 50-seaters in 2009 to 206 (see the annual report) on 12/31/14. In the last six years lots of upgauging has occurred:

CR2s and E-145s dumped as new CR9s enter the fleet

Saabs gone

~65 DC-9s replaced seat-for-seat with 49 used MD-90s

Is dropping another eighty 50-seaters likely to cause some frequency reduction and service drops: yes. City-count Armageddon? No.
 
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Fri Feb 20, 2015 8:44 pm

Quoting WaywardMemphian (Reply 89):
FSM has been experiencing gains as well, up past 90,000 for last year. I wonder how that will effect their renewed passenger growth. The City Wire website stays on top of the pass numbers but they don't get into how full those flights are.

Maybe folks south of the tunnel are realizing that it's easier to fly out of FSM than it is to make the drive up to XNA. That drive can be a pain in the butt. It's easier to drive to TUL than XNA.
"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
 
WaywardMemphian
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Fri Feb 20, 2015 8:57 pm

Quoting mayor (Reply 94):
Maybe folks south of the tunnel are realizing that it's easier to fly out of FSM than it is to make the drive up to XNA. That drive can be a pain in the butt. It's easier to drive to TUL than XNA.


Come on, you know better.

Ft. Smith is still off of it's peaks pre recession but XNA smashed it's 2007 numbers last year. The highway dept. is bidding out the western section of the US 412 bypass that will go far enough west to tie in with the planned dedicated road to XNA so access to the airport from I-49 will be greatly improved in a few more years. I don't see FSM being more than what it is now a feeder to Atlanta for Delta and Dallas for American.
 
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:57 pm

Quoting WaywardMemphian (Reply 95):
Ft. Smith is still off of it's peaks pre recession but XNA smashed it's 2007 numbers last year. The highway dept. is bidding out the western section of the US 412 bypass that will go far enough west to tie in with the planned dedicated road to XNA so access to the airport from I-49 will be greatly improved in a few more years. I don't see FSM being more than what it is now a feeder to Atlanta for Delta and Dallas for American.

Is XNA flying to anywhere, other than different hubs? What I mean about the drive is this......if I leave for anywhere south of the tunnel or even south of I-40, once I reach Fayetteville, many times the traffic between there and XNA can be a problem. I've gone out of XNA and TUL and TUL is no worse, and in many cases, better than driving to XNA. People are driving from the Fort Smith metro area, up to XNA to fly, but I wonder if they realize how much easier it is to fly out of FSM?
"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
 
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AirportRival
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Sat Feb 21, 2015 1:54 am

Going away from flights being reduced to flights being added, Frontier sent out this tweet Friday evening: "Excited for new routes from @CVGairport next week! Guess our new routes for a chance to win a ticket! Enter by 2/22 http://spr.ly/60150XIH."

It gives you the option to put in two options if you decide to guess so I don't know if that means that two new Frontier destinations will be announced or what. Yes I know that some of you absolutely despise the ULCC's but more flights are more flights. I won't complain.
 
jb1087xna
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Sat Feb 21, 2015 2:55 am

Quoting mayor (Reply 96):
Is XNA flying to anywhere, other than different hubs? What I mean about the drive is this......if I leave for anywhere south of the tunnel or even south of I-40, once I reach Fayetteville, many times the traffic between there and XNA can be a problem. I've gone out of XNA and TUL and TUL is no worse, and in many cases, better than driving to XNA. People are driving from the Fort Smith metro area, up to XNA to fly, but I wonder if they realize how much easier it is to fly out of FSM?

XNA just has more non-stop destinations, though they're just to hubs of the various carriers.
 
crazytoaster
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RE: DL Significantly Downsizing CVG

Sat Feb 21, 2015 3:57 am

Quoting AirportRival (Reply 97):

Going away from flights being reduced to flights being added, Frontier sent out this tweet Friday evening: "Excited for new routes from @CVGairport next week! Guess our new routes for a chance to win a ticket! Enter by 2/22 http://spr.ly/60150XIH."

It gives you the option to put in two options if you decide to guess so I don't know if that means that two new Frontier destinations will be announced or what. Yes I know that some of you absolutely despise the ULCC's but more flights are more flights. I won't complain.

Pretty cool actually. Frontier taking up more leisure destinations that DL just dropped I assume. I don't have much of a problem with ULCC, just need to adjust expectations.
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