AngMoh
Topic Author
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What Are 757s Used For?

Mon Feb 16, 2015 2:03 pm

Flight global has an article on the current usage of the 757:

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...sis-what-are-757s-used-for-409003/

In short:

83% of 757s seat 199 pax or less
70% of routes are less than 3000km
83% of routes are less than 4000km
From the 5 757 most flown routes, 4 of them are ATL-Florida and less than 900km

It shows why there is no market for a 757 replacement....
727 732 733 734 735 73G 738 739/ER 742 743 744/M 752 753 762 772 77E 773 77W 788 A300 A310 A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A343 A345 A346 A359 A35K A388 DC-9 DC-10 MD11 MD81 MD82 MD87 F70 ERJ145 E170 E175 E190 E195 ATR72 Q400 CRJ200 CRJ700 CRJ900 BAE146 RJ85
 
roseflyer
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RE: What Are 757s Used For?

Mon Feb 16, 2015 3:26 pm

Quoting AngMoh (Thread starter):
83% of 757s seat 199 pax or less
70% of routes are less than 3000km
83% of routes are less than 4000km

Thank you for posting some statistics. Unfortunately the article is only for subscribers.

I appreciate the statistics because transatlantic 757 flying is one of the most talked about subjects on A.net. Some love it, some hate it, some think it is an incredibly important market, some think the 757 production should be restarted (followed by comments on tooling), some think a fuel stop is an epic tragedy, some think the A321neolr is being sent by God to save the world from such misery... ok there is a bit of exaggeration there.

The statistics show that 17% of 600 planes currently flying need the 757 range over existing 737NG and A320. That is a market of 100 planes. It is important for a few airlines, but it is a small market and getting smaller as the MAX and NEO ranges increase. I am glad there are some numbers from a reputable source to describe the market.
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
bobdino
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RE: What Are 757s Used For?

Mon Feb 16, 2015 3:37 pm

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 4):
Unfortunately the article is only for subscribers.

You need to be a member of Flightglobal Club to read the article. Club is free but requires registration - it's not the same as their Pro product, which costs real money.
 
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hufftheweevil
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RE: What Are 757s Used For?

Mon Feb 16, 2015 3:54 pm

I'm a big fan of statistics. And that analysis is quite clear. The great majority of 757 routes today can be replaced by already existing aircraft
Huff
 
AF022
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RE: What Are 757s Used For?

Mon Feb 16, 2015 4:05 pm

I think this is very misleading.
I checked my data and I come up with something similar - 31% of 757 operations are for flights 3000km and greater.
But surely a lot of those 31% could not be replaced with other aircraft because 737 doesn't have the range or widebody is too big.
Besides transatlantic flights in thinner markets, there are flights on
AA from MIA to secondary points in South America (ASU, REC, SSA),
LC from Paris to BZV and PNR; and
UA flights from DEN to Hawaii
If airlines need the 757 for longer flights then they are going to use them during down time for short flights, and this clouds the data. If I were UA operating DEN-OGG and I had 8 hours on the DEN side with the aircraft, I could leave it on the ground to make the statistics look better, or I could operate a quick DEN-IAH roundtrip to use the aircraft.
The 757 fits a key niche and without new manufactures a few airlines have a problem on certain key routes. Whether or not X% of 757s operate on short flight can't deny the fact that some airlines will really miss this aircraft.
 
roseflyer
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RE: What Are 757s Used For?

Mon Feb 16, 2015 5:55 pm

Quoting af022 (Reply 4):
Whether or not X% of 757s operate on short flight can't deny the fact that some airlines will really miss this aircraft.

United, Delta and American do rely on the range of the airplane and will miss an airplane in that market segment. It is important for their route network. However 3 airlines with 100 or so planes is not a market that Boeing and Airbus are going to invest a ton of money to satisfy. Airbus is going to push the A321NEOlr. Boeing will push the MAX. If neither can do a specific route, then that route no longer makes business sense.

Every airline has a route that they would love to operate if their airplanes had just a little more range. However the manufacturers are getting very focused on the desires of growing markets like China. Airlines in China want the most efficient airplane on their route network which for the most part averages 800 mile segments. Airbus or Boeing could push the A320NEO or 737MAX farther, but they have to be careful not to increase the baseline weight of the airplane. Airlines in China have zero interest in more range. They usually want less range and lower weights to reduce operating costs.
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
AA737-823
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RE: What Are 757s Used For?

Mon Feb 16, 2015 6:23 pm

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 1):
ok there is a bit of exaggeration there.

I don't know about that; you've accurately summarized about ten petabytes of a.net's server space in one paragraph.

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 5):
However 3 airlines with 100 or so planes is not a market that Boeing and Airbus are going to invest a ton of money to satisfy.

Not a ton of money, no. But one can take a look at the 767-400 and consider that Boeing is at least willing to entertain some compromise.
 
justplanenutz
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RE: What Are 757s Used For?

Mon Feb 16, 2015 7:19 pm

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 6):
However 3 airlines with 100 or so planes is not a market that Boeing and Airbus are going to invest a ton of money to satisfy.

Why not just Frankenplane the 100-200 newest frames to serve the under 5000 nm TATL market? New engines, scimitars and BSI. There is already an avionics upgrade that AA deployed in 2005. UA did it to DC8s, FedEx to DC-10s and USAF to 707s. It may not make any money for Boeing, but it would buy time for the NSA.
 
dfambro
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RE: What Are 757s Used For?

Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:29 pm

Quoting AngMoh (Thread starter):
It shows why there is no market for a 757 replacement....

I wouldn't read that into the stats so easily. There are a few carriers (ie, US legacies) with a ton of these planes, and a lot of carriers without any. The legacies deploy them on a variety of routes, and obviously those without the aircraft don't deploy it at all. It's just not surprising to me that, say, UA doesn't have 100 3000-4000mi routes that they can put 757s on. Or that they need 757 capacity on shorter routes and so use the planes on those routes. They fly the fleet they have.

It's an entirely different question as to whether, today, a new-build highly efficient aircraft of similar capacity and range would be acquired and deployed. The air travel market has changed quite a bit since 757 sales dropped off and the model was discontinued. A modern version could be a great plane for today's point-to-point (that is, hub-to-distant-point) model.
 
eastern747
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RE: What Are 757s Used For?

Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:30 pm

I had just started with EA @68-69 when the first one flew into DCA. I took a break and went down to see the plane. Other than the 747 I was in awe. Amazing. and don't forget EA was the first to fly it. It is a great aircraft to fly, at least it was before airlines cram the passengers in like sardines in a can! I liked the 727s, but am and have been unimpressed with 737s. They remind me of CTA's busses.(Chicago Transit Co)
 
32andBelow
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RE: What Are 757s Used For?

Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:31 pm

Quoting dfambro (Reply 8):
I wouldn't read that into the stats so easily. There are a few carriers (ie, US legacies) with a ton of these planes, and a lot of carriers without any. The legacies deploy them on a variety of routes, and obviously those without the aircraft don't deploy it at all. It's just not surprising to me that, say, UA doesn't have 100 3000-4000mi routes that they can put 757s on. Or that they need 757 capacity on shorter routes and so use the planes on those routes. They fly the fleet they have.

It's an entirely different question as to whether, today, a new-build highly efficient aircraft of similar capacity and range would be acquired and deployed. The air travel market has changed quite a bit since 757 sales dropped off and the model was discontinued. A modern version could be a great plane for today's point-to-point (that is, hub-to-distant-point) model.

If there was an economic case for the aircraft then a manufacturer would make one. Looks like AB is going after it with the 321LR. If Boeing could make money then they would jump in, they feel they can't so they aren't
 
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NYPECO
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RE: What Are 757s Used For?

Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:32 pm

But this article only shows what the 757 statistics are today when there are less and less of them available and less airlines have them.
 
SXDFC
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RE: What Are 757s Used For?

Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:40 pm

The 757 is used to transport people and cargo all around the world. Its white, with red stripes and it looks like the Tylenol myself and others will need to to take for reading YET ANOTHER THREAD ABOUT THE 757! My lord is this industry that dull to the point where we need to contentiously beat this topic to death. I think Airbus made the A321LR as an effort to shut a-net up!

The 757 is a beautiful plane with beautiful lines. Lets enjoy her lines while we can, because in another generation or so they will only get to enjoy the 757 in a museum.

[Edited 2015-02-16 14:44:25]
 
cschleic
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RE: What Are 757s Used For?

Mon Feb 16, 2015 11:03 pm

Quoting AngMoh (Thread starter):
In short:

83% of 757s seat 199 pax or less
70% of routes are less than 3000km
83% of routes are less than 4000km
From the 5 757 most flown routes, 4 of them are ATL-Florida and less than 900km

It shows why there is no market for a 757 replacement....

As a relative of mine with a PhD in statistics always says, you have to understand the "why" behind each number.

Looking at the stats above, going strictly by length doesn't tell the whole story. Sure, other planes have a similar range, but can they lift the same payload, can they get out of certain length runways, does a particular airline even have them in their fleet?

Looking at the Florida comparison, the volume probably is driven more by this.... there are a lot of people connecting between Atlanta and Florida cities for vacations/cruises, Delta has a lot of 757's, they're paid for, they're not the most efficient plane in the fleet so they're used on shorter - but higher volume - routes, therefore.....ATL - Florida. Does this mean there's no market for a replacement? Who knows....it just means it might not be used on ATL - Florida, but could be used plenty of other places. The fact that Delta makes a business decision to use the equipment it has to its most economic sense has nothing to do with the analysis of whether a "replacement" (meaning range, payload, passengers, performance and economics) might be more useful on a different route. If the existing 757 design suddenly were made more economical (re-engined, new wing or structures), they might be switched to other routes.

Maybe this is more important.....rather than replacements, an evolutionary design that continues to fragment markets. The 763 did this with Europe; direct service between more cities in Europe and North America. The 737NG's did this in North America (and other areas)....more non-stop service between cities that previously were too far apart for other types of planes (too small or too big, inadequate range), as well as more economical in general.
 
jfk777
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RE: What Are 757s Used For?

Mon Feb 16, 2015 11:16 pm

Quoting cschleic (Reply 14):
Looking at the Florida comparison, the volume probably is driven more by this.... there are a lot of people connecting between Atlanta and Florida cities for vacations/cruises, Delta has a lot of 757's, they're paid for, they're not the most efficient plane in the fleet so they're used on shorter - but higher volume - routes, therefore.....ATL - Florida. Does this mean there's no market for a replacement?

Delta has ordered A321, this is a replacement plane for the 757. DL also ordered 100 737-900ER from Boeing which look like 757 replacements too. DL has plenty of 757 replacements ordered, its just a matter of time before the 75 fleet goes to Scottsdale.
 
321neoLR
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RE: What Are 757s Used For?

Mon Feb 16, 2015 11:30 pm

Quoting SXDFC (Reply 12):
YET ANOTHER THREAD ABOUT THE 757! My lord is this industry that dull to the point where we need to contentiously beat this topic to death. I think Airbus made the A321LR as an effort to shut a-net up!

That really made me laugh.... Brilliant!!!
 
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N62NA
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RE: What Are 757s Used For?

Mon Feb 16, 2015 11:40 pm

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 1):
Thank you for posting some statistics. Unfortunately the article is only for subscribers.

Go to google and paste in the URL and you'll be able to read the entire article.
 
B737900
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RE: What Are 757s Used For?

Tue Feb 17, 2015 12:59 am

Quoting EASTERN747 (Reply 9):
I liked the 727s, but am and have been unimpressed with 737s. They remind me of CTA's busses.(Chicago Transit Co)

Never been on a CTA bus but have been on plenty of 727's and many, many 737's. Your statement about being unimpressed with the 737's needs it's own thread. I'd like to here your reasoning. Cheers.
Sounds like a Beaver on floats..........we're saved!!
 
strfyr51
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RE: What Are 757s Used For?

Tue Feb 17, 2015 1:36 am

Everybody fails to realize the 757 CAN carry extra tankage but it will limit the Cargo Capability of the airplane. Since Cargo
is what pays the Bills? Nobody is going to do that unless it's absolutely NECESSARY. And right NOW?? It's Not.
 
dfambro
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RE: What Are 757s Used For?

Tue Feb 17, 2015 2:06 am

Quoting 32andBelow (Reply 10):

If there was an economic case for the aircraft then a manufacturer would make one. Looks like AB is going after it with the 321LR. If Boeing could make money then they would jump in, they feel they can't so they aren't

Not to pick on you, but your statement is typical of the common Panglossian attitude on A.net, where everything is exactly as it should be, because if there was a reason to do something differently, it would have already been done. There's on old joke about an economist who sees a $100 bill on the ground, but just ignores it and keeps walking because he figures that if there was actually a $100 bill on the ground, someone would have picked it up already. Given how much this industry has changed, and the tumult it's been in, and the huge risks entailed in new aircraft projects, there are abundant opportunities for market inefficiences and unmet aircraft needs. It's entirely possible that Boeing thinks a 757 replacement would likely make money, but (1) they have other higher priorities for their limited capital and human resources, or (2) the risk-adjusted ROI is less than a threshold hurdle because a high risk adjustment is placed on this project due to the required assumption that airline route structures change. Or some other reason.
 
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NYPECO
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RE: What Are 757s Used For?

Tue Feb 17, 2015 2:09 am

Quoting N62NA (Reply 18):

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 1):
Thank you for posting some statistics. Unfortunately the article is only for subscribers.

Go to google and paste in the URL and you'll be able to read the entire article.

Thanks for that trick!
 
CalTex
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RE: What Are 757s Used For?

Tue Feb 17, 2015 2:26 am

There are two major problems with making arguments from the article's data:

1. The data are based on # of flights, which will overstate the impact of short flights. A 757 could complete four round trips between ATL and Florida (1:00 flight, 1:00 turn) in the time it takes to fly one EWR-TXL round trip.
2. Trying to draw a correlation between "most 757's are configured with less than 200 seats" and "most 757's fly short range flights" is imperfect logic because TATL 757's need low seat counts to achieve range.

To better address the problem with #1, I decided to look at the question "how much time does a 757 spend flying TATL versus ATL-Florida?" As a rough estimate, I calculated how many miles a 757 spends flying TATL vs. ATL-Florida:

Miles Flown by 757's, by Stage Length:
    5,000+ km: 13% (6% of all flights; I assumed an average stage length of 5,500 km)
    4,000-5,000: 22% (12% of flights, 4,500 km)
    3,000-4,000: 18% (same process as 4,000-5,000)
    2,000-3,000: 23%
    1,000-2,000: 17%
    0-1,000: 6% (19% of all flights, assumed 800 km stage length)

(The one major flaw with this analysis is that it ignores ground time. TATL 757 routes tend to spend more of their time in the air than on the ground, vice vesa.)

The OP noted that 70% of all 757 flights are less than 3,000 km, and that 83% are less than 4,000 km.
Based on my numbers, I would say that roughly half (46%) of 757 flight time is spent on stages less than 3,000 km, and roughly two-thirds (64%) on stages less than 4,000 km.

Overall, I very much agree with the OP's assertion that most 757 routes can be replaced with 738/739/A321. In fact, I expect that's why we see narrowbody fleets changing from, for example, a bipolar 727/733/734/73G + 757 to the more similarly sized 738/739/A321. However, it looks like there is still a niche for longer 5,000+ km routes. Roughly 10% of 757 flight time is on those routes - 10% of UA, AA, and DL's active 757 fleets is 33 airframes.

[Edited 2015-02-16 18:29:22]
 
DeltaRules
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RE: What Are 757s Used For?

Tue Feb 17, 2015 4:46 am

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 6):
Not a ton of money, no. But one can take a look at the 767-400 and consider that Boeing is at least willing to entertain some compromise.

757-300, too. Not a lot of those made. 767-200 replacement option.
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B717/722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
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RayChuang
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RE: What Are 757s Used For?

Tue Feb 17, 2015 5:04 am

I think the 757-200 will stay in USA airline service because of the need to operate out of airports with tricky takeoff and landing situations (e.g. SAN, SNA and LGA) and very popular "hot and high" airports (DEN, LAS and PHX). Also, the plane has the range to easily fly USA transcon routes such as between JFK and LAX/SFO year-round.

Small wonder why Airbus is offering the A321neo long range version as a 757-200 replacement for AA, DL and UA, since the A321neo-LR could potentially have very similar flight characteristics as the 757-200.
 
Cadet985
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RE: What Are 757s Used For?

Tue Feb 17, 2015 8:04 am

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 14):
Delta has ordered A321, this is a replacement plane for the 757. DL also ordered 100 737-900ER from Boeing which look like 757 replacements too. DL has plenty of 757 replacements ordered, its just a matter of time before the 75 fleet goes to Scottsdale.

DL and UA fly some 757's on fairly short TA routes and to Hawaii, and various points in the Pacific. The 321 and -900ER can't fill these holes.

Marc

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