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Liverpoola380
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Low Cost Long Haul - Will Lakers Dream Come True

Thu Feb 19, 2015 8:56 am

Great article in the economist underpinning the LCC current and future positions for Long Haul.

Will we really see Ryanair enter this space?

http://discover.economist.com/?a=216...onghaulroutesCTOutbrain|[TRACKING]
 
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Plane Holland
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RE: Low Cost Long Haul - Will Lakers Dream Come True

Thu Feb 19, 2015 8:58 am

I don't hope so. The race to the bottom has gone too far already. 28-29" on short haul is a crime, let alone on a long haul flight.
 
Armodeen
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RE: Low Cost Long Haul - Will Lakers Dream Come True

Thu Feb 19, 2015 9:05 am

I read this article yesterday. It left me wondering if they know something we don't regarding the next generation of Boeing narrowbody... London to India non stop?!
 
MaverickM11
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RE: Low Cost Long Haul - Will Lakers Dream Come True

Thu Feb 19, 2015 9:10 am

So far DU (DY's op profit dropped by 1B+ NOK in 2014 YOY because of it) and D7 are losing their shirt, and they are the best run longhaul LCC operations we've seen in a long time. When they start to break even and even make money, then we can talk about the future of longhaul LCC.
I don't take responsibility at all
 
Planesmart
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RE: Low Cost Long Haul - Will Lakers Dream Come True

Thu Feb 19, 2015 9:34 am

Looking back, reminds me how everything seems different, but nothing really changes. Then there was illegal price fixing and capacity limits. Now they are legal through JV's. Great for customers. NOT
 
AA737-823
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RE: Low Cost Long Haul - Will Lakers Dream Come True

Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:28 am

I don't see what all the fuss is about; when I can fly a legacy US carrier from Alaska to Singapore, 24,000 miles roundtrip, for US$800, it seems to me like low-cost longhaul has arrived.
Granted, that was a decent deal, but still, it's not uncommon to find $1000-$1200 for transpacific flights.

So.... what we really need is even WORSE service than the low level we already get on that flight? For a lower price? No, thanks.
I was thankful for the bread sandwich I received (literally. A sandwich. With a penny-sized piece of turkey inside.)
 
MaverickM11
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RE: Low Cost Long Haul - Will Lakers Dream Come True

Thu Feb 19, 2015 11:06 am

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 5):
So.... what we really need is even WORSE service than the low level we already get on that flight? For a lower price?

   pretty much...and then EVERYONE will complain how bad the service is when airlines just follow their spend.
I don't take responsibility at all
 
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Aquila3
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RE: Low Cost Long Haul - Will Lakers Dream Come True

Thu Feb 19, 2015 12:01 pm

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 5):
So.... what we really need is even WORSE service than the low level we already get on that flight? For a lower price? No, thanks.
I was thankful for the bread sandwich I received (literally. A sandwich. With a penny-sized piece of turkey inside.)

So you see, it cannot be much worse than that. "Full service" carriers have already almost completed the race to the bottom in cattle class. Almost no food, almost no water, 10 abreast. Now, what about, to get the same abuse for half of that price or less? And the unvaluable feeling that there are no "privileged" inflated egos up front masturbating in their "suites" and dining with caviar and French frizz? Voila' the LCC model is served!
(note: for $400 difference , I am well ready to bring my own sandwich with me. Sure it will taste better, at least. I see a problem with the liquids ban, but I guess that with such budget I can buy plenty of water on board.)
chi vola vale chi vale vola chi non vola è un vile
 
aviationaware
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RE: Low Cost Long Haul - Will Lakers Dream Come True

Thu Feb 19, 2015 12:08 pm

All the things that make LCCs work on short haul are far less valuable on long haul flights.
 
Kiwirob
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RE: Low Cost Long Haul - Will Lakers Dream Come True

Thu Feb 19, 2015 12:09 pm

We already have low cost long haul, this dream came true years ago.
 
PanHAM
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RE: Low Cost Long Haul - Will Lakers Dream Come True

Thu Feb 19, 2015 12:37 pm

Low cost Long haul never ended after Sir Freddie had to Close shop. With ever more sophisticated yield Management Systems a good number of seats can be sold on the legacies for prices LCCs could never achieve.

Low cost on Long haul will not be that much more competetive as they are facing costs which they do not have on short hauls. They would also Need to carry freight whoich would however be low yield only since they do not have the sales structure the legacies have for freight.
GSAs can handle the sales and the physical handling of the freight however the legacies will always have a leading edge in that Business.
Was Erlauben Erdogan!!!
 
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Aquila3
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RE: Low Cost Long Haul - Will Lakers Dream Come True

Thu Feb 19, 2015 1:03 pm

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 10):
Low cost on Long haul will not be that much more competetive as they are facing costs which they do not have on short hauls. They would also Need to carry freight whoich would however be low yield only since they do not have the sales structure the legacies have for freight.

I agree with you that it is much more competitive, for the reasons you have stated.
But I do not really get the cargo issue. Why should they bother to sell cargo?
The LCC model would be to fill the A/C with seats to gills (see the 737-800-200 by Ryan). At that point the space left for cargo would be almost nil, if you consider that on long haul everybody will carry hold luggage. There are of course A/C more suited for this an some less. Cargo stars like the 77W or the 788 probably not. But here are A/C that are now seen as cargo-problematic like the A380 that would be ideal for the LCC model. Seems that in a couple of years they will be available used almost for the price of the scrap metal, as well....
chi vola vale chi vale vola chi non vola è un vile
 
WaywardMemphian
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RE: Low Cost Long Haul - Will Lakers Dream Come True

Thu Feb 19, 2015 1:24 pm

Boeing and Fed Ex coming up with passenger/ cargo plane and starting service that way.

That's a joke you know
 
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spinkid
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RE: Low Cost Long Haul - Will Lakers Dream Come True

Thu Feb 19, 2015 1:33 pm

We have had some LCC long haul like Air Asia X and Norwegian, even XL Airways France, but I think the real question is will we see an ULCC give it a try.
 
Baexecutive
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RE: Low Cost Long Haul - Will Lakers Dream Come True

Thu Feb 19, 2015 2:29 pm

Quoting spinkid (Reply 13):

Add Jetstar, Scoot, Cebu Pacific & Rouge, not withstanding the other semi LCC/LH operators such as Aer Lingus or Monarch or Westjet (transatlantic but not sure if it merits long haul status).

Flyglobespan tried unsuccessfully to break into the LH market and I believe Jet2 operated a flight to New York, not sure how successful that was though.

Personally I think for the cost conscious who plan ahead for holiday, they can already obtain cheap fares LH with enhanced carriers as it stands, not sure if the LCC can compete in this arena effectively.
 
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hongkongflyer
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RE: Low Cost Long Haul - Will Lakers Dream Come True

Thu Feb 19, 2015 3:17 pm

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 3):
So far DU (DY's op profit dropped by 1B+ NOK in 2014 YOY because of it) and D7 are losing their shirt,

We should rather wait for the 2015's result to form the conclusion because of the "mess" related to the 787 (compensation; wet-lease costs) etc.

Same for the Scoot as their highly inefficient 777 will finally be replaced by the 789.

So result of AirAsiaX; Jetstar Long Haul; Scoot and Norwegian Long Haul in 2015 will be a better indicator on whether LCC long Haul will be success or not.
 
B-HOP
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RE: Low Cost Long Haul - Will Lakers Dream Come True

Thu Feb 19, 2015 5:09 pm

I think it will work, given the large middle class population who has disposable income from many large cities in China with base in developed countries that has disposable income and paid annual leave. I have traveled HKG-SIN-SYD-OOL-KUL-SIN-HKG last September on both TZ and D7, whilst the seat are small and I need to pay for some substandard food, it helped tremendously by large inbound and outbound traffic, many of those would simply not visit Australia/Asia without those cheap fares, myself included, the total airfare for the trip was no more than US$700. Whilst they might be un-glamorous, it moves vast number of souls cheaply between continents. 5J's case is different, it focus on labour traffic to Middle East, so give it some time, inbound to Australia, with falling currency, seems to do OK, through not good for opposite, we are still waiting for the revolution of the model, D7 A350 to Europe and more exposure from DY to cities like HKG, but for now, with China and Australia, it seems sustainable.

Kev
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PanHAM
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RE: Low Cost Long Haul - Will Lakers Dream Come True

Thu Feb 19, 2015 9:45 pm

Quoting Aquila3 (Reply 11):
Cargo stars like the 77W or the 788 probably not. But here are A/C that are now seen as cargo-problematic like the A380 that would be ideal for

Taking on cargo is an essential when operating long haul. Legacy carriers are filling the main deck with passengers plus the lower holds with cargo. An LCC could not operate profitably without getting that additional income.The Point is only that LCCs who will never even think about putting up heir own infrastructure for freight will have to employ a GSA for the sales and a GHA for the handling

There are companies specialized like Leisure Cargo which was founded y LTU and is now a stand-alone serving many Airline customers.

Which leads me to another point, the holiday airlines like Thompson., Thomas Cook / Condor and so on are the real Long haul LCCs and some are doing that for decades. Sir Freddie belonged i that System.

Looks like the world has to re-invent the wheel every once and so often.
Was Erlauben Erdogan!!!
 
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hongkongflyer
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RE: Low Cost Long Haul - Will Lakers Dream Come True

Fri Feb 20, 2015 3:02 am

Scoot have some cargo feed from SQ and AirAsia has their cargo operation.
 
B-HOP
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RE: Low Cost Long Haul - Will Lakers Dream Come True

Fri Feb 20, 2015 5:08 am

first choice, before thomson, used to have a "paper " airline chartered an AN12 from carribean countries back to uk, to ship tropical fish. They also used to do the same for phuket.
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PlanesNTrains
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RE: Low Cost Long Haul - Will Lakers Dream Come True

Fri Feb 20, 2015 6:56 am

I'm looking forward to seeing a true global (ish) ULCC carrier, just to see how the concept evolves. I'd imagine a 3 class cabin might evolve, along the lines of economy-, economy, and economy+. An A330-900 might be 3-3-3, 2-4-2, and 2-3-2 respectively. There'd need to be some sort of feed with a regional LCC/ULCC in order to fill the planes, though, and of course this adds cost and complexity.

The challenge I see with longhaul ULCC's is that while they might help poorer people have an opportunity to travel the world, which I'd love to see, they'd ultimately harm the middle class who are currently out their flying because it'd be the proverbial race to the bottom for many carriers, and this might ultimately leave 75% of the capacity geared towards the ULCC crowd and 25% geared towards traditional full-service business models. Those full service carriers will charge a premium above current fares IMHO, so more people will be pushed into the ULCC arena.

That's how I can imagine it going, anyhow.

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
PanHAM
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RE: Low Cost Long Haul - Will Lakers Dream Come True

Fri Feb 20, 2015 8:27 am

Quoting b-hop (Reply 19):
first choice, before thomson, used to have a "paper " airline chartered an AN12 from carribean countries back to uk, to ship tropical fish. They also used to do the same for phuket.


That can be good Business but why an An-12 when they fly empty belly space from the Carribean or Asian Holiday spots that can be filled with produce or flowers. Such markets can be developed.
Was Erlauben Erdogan!!!
 
UPNYGuy
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RE: Low Cost Long Haul - Will Lakers Dream Come True

Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:35 am

AC Rouge is what I would classify as low cost long haul (at least on some of the routes). The wife and I have flown them in the front cabin, and were VERY happy with the service provided. When we can receive what is essentially elevated domestic biz class service on an international flight for less than the cost of a "traditional" economy fare, we will go.
 
aviationaware
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RE: Low Cost Long Haul - Will Lakers Dream Come True

Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:39 am

Posted in wrong topic, delete please.

[Edited 2015-02-20 01:40:22]
 
B-HOP
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RE: Low Cost Long Haul - Will Lakers Dream Come True

Fri Feb 20, 2015 1:59 pm

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 21):
That can be good Business but why an An-12 when they fly empty belly space from the Caribbean or Asian Holiday spots that can be filled with produce or flowers. Such markets can be developed.

My apology, my brain jammed (is Chinese New Year!), it was from Caribbean Islands chartered to I think Barbados or Montego Bay (I can't remember correctly, the article was 2002) then fill the 767 belly back to UK, they also have something similar from Sri Lanka/India through Male, Maldives back to the UK, at the time, charter flights can't sell cargo space directly so the subsidy helped them with that.

And here goes another type, Air Canada Rouge and Air Transat, follow old ABC charter model serving less than daily, but with better infrastructure than the Labour Carrier (5J) and People Mover (D7/TZ), Air Transat, in particular have nice IFE system, through seats are still narrow.
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