cessna53996
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Posts: 124
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2013 12:27 am

How Long Can B6 Keep JFK-ABQ?

Sun Feb 22, 2015 2:48 am

There is no way that B6 can be making money on JFK-ABQ-JFK especially with fares as low as $124 one way. I've heard that this route has been pretty bad ever since they opened it...

Seat count and Fares for the next few days:
JFK-ABQ
2/22/15: 106/150 $199
2/23/15: 81/150 $199
2/26/15: 100/150 $199
2/27/15: 91/150 $199

ABQ-JFK
2/22/15: 136/150 $456
2/23/15: 121/150 $199
2/26/15: 107/150 $199
2/27/15: 73/150 $199

With flights going out sometimes less than 50% full, how can B6 justify keeping on a likely money-loser?
 
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1337Delta764
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Joined: Mon Oct 31, 2005 4:02 am

RE: How Long Can B6 Keep JFK-ABQ?

Sun Feb 22, 2015 3:06 am

I believe the city and/or the state has a revenue guarantee agreement in place with B6 on this route, so if this route doesn't perform the city and/or state will reimburse B6 for the losses.

However, I personally think an ABQ-JFK route would do better on DL with flights timed for European/African connections. There isn't really much O&D between ABQ and NYC for B6's flight times to work right.
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jfklganyc
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RE: How Long Can B6 Keep JFK-ABQ?

Sun Feb 22, 2015 4:39 am

It seems to work for them. RNO will follow the same pattern.

You are looking at winter loads and fares. But considering it has been flying for a while now, it is likely to stick around
 
usflyer msp
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RE: How Long Can B6 Keep JFK-ABQ?

Sun Feb 22, 2015 4:59 am

I would not be surprised if ABQ was dropped after the two-year incentive program is over. They have already cut the route from daily to 4x weekly for much of the year. It cannot be economical to operate a station for one relatively low yield, often less-than-daily domestic flight. The only positive thing is that it is a redeye flight , so there is little opportunity cost for the aircraft...
 
MIflyer12
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RE: How Long Can B6 Keep JFK-ABQ?

Sun Feb 22, 2015 9:25 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 1):
However, I personally think an ABQ-JFK route would do better on DL with flights timed for European/African connections. There isn't really much O&D between ABQ and NYC for B6's flight times to work right.

DL JFK to Africa? The twice weekly Dakar 757 flight and 4x weekly 767 to Accra describe the totality of DL's service. What do you think the PDEWs are ABQ-DKR and ABQ-ACC?
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 3305
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

RE: How Long Can B6 Keep JFK-ABQ?

Sun Feb 22, 2015 2:11 pm

Quoting cessna53996 (Thread starter):
With flights going out sometimes less than 50% full, how can B6 justify keeping on a likely money-loser?

It is certainly a money-loser, but it seems to be maturing (albeit slowly), and the cut to 4x/weekly during the winter troughs must help keep losses in check. I also suspect that the precipitous drop in fuel prices is helping the flight remain sustainable (especially since fuel costs are a significant portion of the CASM on transcon or near-transcon flights).

See load factor and average fare data below.

Oct '13 LF - 69%
Nov '13 LF - 49% (!)
Dec '13 LF- 71%
Q4 Average Fare - $192

Jan '14 LF - 80%
Feb '14 LF - 81%
Mar '14 LF - 86%
Q1 Average Fare - $169

Apr '14 LF - 72%
May '14 LF - 83%
Jun '14 LF - 91%
Q2 Average Fare - $179

Jul '14 LF - 91%
Q3 average fare - $188

The average fares are quite low - they essentially match or are below the fares B6 commands on the much-shorter JFK-Florida flights. The Q4 loads are pretty appalling, but it looks like the sub-50% loads are being avoided for the most part (unlike B6's failed attempt at JFK-TUS).

I think ABQ has passed the test for now, and should remain within the B6 network unless 1.) another airline enters the NYC-ABQ market and further pressures the loads and yields (highly unlikely), or 2.) the US economy enters another recession (highly unlikely in the near-term).
 
richierich
Posts: 3609
Joined: Sat Nov 04, 2000 5:49 am

RE: How Long Can B6 Keep JFK-ABQ?

Sun Feb 22, 2015 3:12 pm

Could this flight be made with an E190? It's on the edge of the realistic range...if so, what would that do the viability of JFK-ABQ?
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longhauler
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RE: How Long Can B6 Keep JFK-ABQ?

Sun Feb 22, 2015 3:18 pm

Quoting richierich (Reply 6):
Could this flight be made with an E190? It's on the edge of the realistic range...if so, what would that do the viability of JFK-ABQ?

The E190 should have no problem flying JFK-ABQ with a full load. It is significantly shorter than AC's longest E190 route, YYZ-SEA.
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georgiabill
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Joined: Sat Mar 01, 2003 11:53 pm

RE: How Long Can B6 Keep JFK-ABQ?

Sun Feb 22, 2015 3:39 pm

The grey matter between my ears is not what it used to be and when I want to find my old schedules I have misplaced them. But I seem to remember TWA flying JFK to ABQ in the early 80'S(perhaps summer seasonal) As with alot of their domestic flights at JFK it was timed to connect with European flights. I think the flight was operated by 727-200 and arrived around 4:00PM departed after 6:00PM.
 
IADLHR
Posts: 612
Joined: Wed Apr 27, 2005 10:25 pm

RE: How Long Can B6 Keep JFK-ABQ?

Sun Feb 22, 2015 3:57 pm

Quoting georgiabill (Reply 8):
The grey matter between my ears is not what it used to be and when I want to find my old schedules I have misplaced them. But I seem to remember TWA flying JFK to ABQ in the early 80'S(perhaps summer seasonal) As with a lot of their domestic flights at JFK it was timed to connect with European flights. I think the flight was operated by 727-200 and arrived around 4:00PM departed after 6:00PM.

I took that flight a couple of times but can not remember what kind of aircraft they used. However, I think I can find it in my notes somewhere. I dont think it was just seasonal but so remember taking it during the summer. After several months of operation the flight was canceled. TWA did restart it again a few years later. Again, the specifics are in my notes filed away. I think I can find them.

Back in the 70s TWA had a flight JFK-OKC-ABQ and ABQ-OKC-JFK. I took that flight many, many times and was always struck by the number of pax that got on in ABQ and going to JFK and vice versa. So even back then there seemed to be a market for NYC-ABQ. After many years TWA changed it to JFK-TUL-ABQ and ABQ-TUL-JFK. If I remember correctly that was on a 707. Still the dynamics was the same with more pax from/to ABQ than TUL.

Many times I have wondered if LGA is a better fit for ABQ-NYC and what the number of pax going into NYC for business or leisure instead of connecting at JFK.On the other hand there seem to be a large number of people in ABQ that have ties to or family on Long Island. So in that case JFK works well. I also realize that LGA has a perimeter rule and so we may never know if LGA is a better fit for the ABQ market.

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