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Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:50 am

Please continue here.

Australian Aviation Thread # 115 (by QF175 Feb 6 2015 in Civil Aviation)

Ben Soriano
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:19 am

Hi All,

Just to recap find below notes from Australian Aviation Discussion Thread #115.

Australian Aviation Thread # 115 (by QF175 Feb 6 2015 in Civil Aviation)


* QF & the case of disposable gloves being used for rubbish collection
* 85% Controlling Stake in Airnorth acquired by Bristow Helicopters Australia Pty Ltd
* JQ will commence 787 operations on Brisbane and Melbourne to Honolulu from the end of October 2015, replacing the 303-seat A330-200s.
* CZ will begin flying 787-8s on its Guangzhou-Perth route from 31 March 2015 replacing the A330-200s that currently operate the flights.
* International flights between Bali and Townsville given the green light by the Federal Government.
* QF launch Virgin style bid-to-upgrade your flight option which can combine points and cash http://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-onlin...=flipper&utm_campaign=home-flipper
* JQ commence Perth-Solomon FIFO flights.
* QF BNE-NRT will be daily, not four times weekly service
* QF proposes PER-SIN daily from June 13, 2015 onboard Boeing 737-800
* QF to take over MEL-HTI from JQ with twice-weekly 737s
* JQ to commence MEL-PPP three times a week
* QF (11FEB15) remove proposed schedule for Perth – Singapore service, which would see the oneWorld member operating Boeing 737-800 aircraft on daily basis, from 13JUN15. QF last operated this route in July 2014 with A330-200/-300 aircraft.
* JQ take over one of the PER-SIN services from 3K.
* QF credit rating revised to BB+ "Stable"
* QF tighten dress rules for lounges - smart casual.
* QF a step closer to ordering the B787
* QF expected to regain its prized investment-grade rating within a year to 18 months
* Speculations surrounding QF's International fleet renewal plans B787 vs A350
* LAN to fly SCL-AKL-SYD 10 x weekly with the 787-9 by the end of 2015
* UL Colombo – Melbourne UL 4 x weekly A330-300 service from 02NOV15.
* Discussions surrounding QF's poor OTP SCL-SYD route
* Speculation Network's Fokker fleet to be repainted in QF colours
* 2nd reconfigured QF A332 VH-EBA back in service
* All JQ A330s will be replaced by B787s by November 2015: http://airlineroute.net/2015/02/15/jq-787-w15update1/
* Qantas Improves Domestic Economy Meal Times And Headsets:http://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-expan...y-meal-times-launches-new-headsets
* Extra capacity allowed for Australia - Chile, up to 4000 seats per week. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busi...-link/story-e6frg95x-1227221626960
* QF 1st B744 VH-OJA departure date confirmed that VH-OJA will fly into Wollongong on March 8 at 7.50 am. (I'll be there!)
More information about VH-OJA in Wollongong courtesy of Australian Aviation.
* BNE Airport Corporation meet with AC VP Global Sales Duncan Bureau
* Virgin announces first half results: http://australianaviation.com.au/201...australia-narrows-first-half-loss/
* Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia hits Queensland Coast 20 February 2015 as a category 5 system! as a consequence Virgin Australia and Qantas cancel flights
* Discussion surrounding VA possible launch of SYD-HKG services
* Hogan resigned & James Rigney (Etihad CFO) resign from VA Board
* QF announce underlying profit before tax of $367 million for the six months to December 2014.
* Fly Pelican to operate direct flights between Canberra and Newcastle in April http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-...tle-to-resume-20150226-13pcpk.html
* Discussions surrounding QF and a firm B787 order

I have done my best to summarise the previous discussion so enjoy!

EK413
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:33 am

It would seem to me that Joyce is starting to deliver what he has promised and that Borgetti is still to get there. I wonder how long his Board will give him? Luxon appears to be looking for a turn around sooner rather than later.
What needs to happen at Virgin to reverse the present situation ? Can it sustain it's present international operations? The fare check's that I have done from time to time suggest their yields to LAX are well below those of QF. I am sure there are a variety of Rx's out there to effect a cure.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:07 pm

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 2):

Joyce had a bit of a head start as he's been CEO since 2008, Borghetti started at DJ in 2010. However I think Borghetti is running out of time to deliver profits. Luxon's comments and Hogan's departure from the board may be a sign that the benefactors are losing patience.
VA needs to quickly solve their issues with DPS and I'm not sure TT is the answer. TT could easily take over PER/ADL-DPS but A320s lack the range to do MEL/SYD/BNE-DPS.
AUH seems to struggle for VA (but not EY) so with more planes coming into the EY fleet they should be able to handle it on their own. VA don't really have anywhere else to send their 77W at the moment though.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:30 pm

Quoting qfvhoqa (Reply 3):
AUH seems to struggle for VA

For sure. From BITRE in November 2014 their inbound load factor for UAE was 70% and outbound 53%   
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:44 pm

It was only a matter of time before JB's spending spree came back to haunt him. EY/NZ/SQ will only tolerate losses to a certain point and now Luxon has fired the first warning signal. The Hogan departure I'm not so sure about- do we interpret it as he doesn't want to be indirectly held accountable for more losses or can he be more firm in VA direction by removing himself?

Operationally, SYD-AUH and the AUH-KUL wet lease are pointless. If there's an extra 773 available a better solution may be to operate extra SYD-LAX flights certain days of the week.

SYD/MEL/BNE-DPS: these routes are deep in-the-red holes. Capacity restricted and sold at fares that don't cover costs. Sometimes NZ transit pax feed into these at only $200 extra than the Australian fare.
The BNE-DPS schedules are weird and often changing- are these routes operated because of too many leased aircraft?
PER-HKT also used to be a problem- not sure now.
BNE-POM/HIR perform poorly with pax numbers, but flying time is half DPS and significantly less fuel.
Agree PER/ADL-DPS will most likely transfer to TT.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sat Feb 28, 2015 12:12 am

Quoting eta unknown (Reply 5):
PER-HKT also used to be a problem- not sure now.

in 2013 their Thai services had a loaf factor of ~ 60%.. Not good ! To Indonesia better at ~ 72% but what about the yields?
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sat Feb 28, 2015 1:21 am

Why would Etihad steadily increase their holding in Virgin Australia, yet Hogan resigns from the board...
Could It be a sign of more pressing need in the world of Etihad Partners, and the relative 'trust' in Borghetti that Hogan may have?
Or could it be the beginning of a draw-down in Etihad 'interest' in Virgin Australia? For whatever reason...
We live in interesting times!
Oh to be a fly in the wall in the QF and VA boardrooms at the moment!
Cheers,
Bunumuring.
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sat Feb 28, 2015 1:28 am

Quoting eta unknown (Reply 5):
SYD/MEL/BNE-DPS: these routes are deep in-the-red holes. Capacity restricted and sold at fares that don't cover costs. Sometimes NZ transit pax feed into these at only $200 extra than the Australian fare.

For VA, they're flying these leisure routes with an increasing cost base, this undoubtedly where TT should be used. For VA, I can't see anywhere apart from North America where they could deploy widebodies to (i.e. their 77W's).
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sat Feb 28, 2015 1:50 am

Quoting eta unknown (Reply 5):
BNE-POM/HIR perform poorly with pax numbers

I've been on the BNE-POM-BNE route with two return trips and the most pax I've had on any flight is 120 - roughly a 66% LF, and the lowest I've seen is 35. It's likely quite a good route for cargo and freight - hence why Air Niugini fly 767's on the route at a frequency of better than daily (not entirely sure what it is like off the top of my head).
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sat Feb 28, 2015 3:22 am

Quoting qfvhoqa (Reply 3):
VA don't really have anywhere else to send their 77W at the moment though.

Short-Term lease to NZ? they have been talking so much about there capacity increase of 12% in the next 6 months, surely a couple more 77Ws will help the North American routes and allow for the fourth route to be started.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sat Feb 28, 2015 3:52 am

Quoting SYDSpotter (Reply 8):
For VA, I can't see anywhere apart from North America where they could deploy widebodies to (i.e. their 77W's).

Agreed, nor can I - and I find that fairly depressing.

One of the things that I loved about Virgin Blue was that they did a few oddball things (Polynesian Blue, e.g.) and made 'em work - although not with widebodies, obviously.

The Virgin (international) route map is both obvious and dull - as well as losing money. Take a risk or two, I say, do something interesting.

Quoting Bluebird191 (Reply 9):
I've been on the BNE-POM-BNE route with two return trips and the most pax I've had on any flight is 120 - roughly a 66% LF, and the lowest

Times have changed, then. Three of us once had to get back rather urgently to Oz and were stuck in Madang for two days (or Mad Ang, as I think of it) because there were no seats on any flight on any airline from POM to Oz - although I'd rather be stuck in Madang than Port Moresby.

The joke was that when we finally got seats we were off-loaded from the connecting flight from Madang to POM and the company had to charter a Cessna for us.  

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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sat Feb 28, 2015 4:04 am

VA seem to be a carrier that hasn't quite grasped the position in the market that it is a best fit for, especially internatioally.

Its overall strategy is one of confusion across the board, with what appears to be inconsistent service offerings on flights (ie. snacks and drinks or some flights and BOB on others). Its trying to turn itself into a mini-QF, but at the same time QF/JQ are at a much more mature stage, whilst VA/TT are still trying to get their act together. Its getting there slowly, but in the meantime its market position is harder to identify.

Internationally, TT would be a good solution for DPS if the A320's had the range to fly from MEL/SYD/BNE, but they don't .It may just be best to pull out of the low-yielding, competition intense DPS market and leave that to JQ, GA and XT (when they start). Trying to go into the market with A330's won't likely help them either, which limits what it can do on many routes. Its just too much aircraft for it too fill, especially given the competitive pressures.

Whether its worth trying to use TT a a vehicle to sustain ADL/PER-DPS is another matter really, as it may well work, but whether its the best use of resources, especially on the high demand but ultra-competive PER-DPS market, is another question really.

VA on AUH-SYD is past its used by date, but as has been stated, its got limited options that it can do with the aircraft. The 77W is the wrong aircraft for them really, given its size. It may be efficient, but filling seats creates added yield pressures.

It certainly isn't easy whichever way it turns.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sat Feb 28, 2015 4:26 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 11):
The Virgin (international) route map is both obvious and dull - as well as losing money. Take a risk or two, I say, do something interesting.

I agree entirely.
Thus, open a few adventurous routes...
Wonder what Borghetti has up his sleeve with new international destinations? It was just a few months ago, wasn't it, that he suggested up to two new international VA destinations that we all speculated over... Still hoping for Seattle! Remember, at one point Ansett's International strategy was to go to places not served or underserved by Qantas. Perhaps Borghetti could follow such a strategy ... Although it didn't really work for Ansett, did it?
Also, the deferred VA wide-bodied replacement/expansion program will be an interesting one to watch... Both in terms of numbers of planes and type(s) ordered.
Cheers,
Bunumuring.
I just wanna live while I'm alive!
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:19 am

Quoting EK413 (Reply 1):

Excellent recap!

Quoting qfvhoqa (Reply 3):
Joyce had a bit of a head start as he's been CEO since 2008, Borghetti started at DJ in 2010.

Oh how fast time flys...

Quoting bunumuring (Reply 13):
Wonder what Borghetti has up his sleeve with new international destinations?

As discussed in the previous thread there aren't really any destinations that would come close to being a 'no-brainer' for VA. I was thinking HKG but to go up against QF and CX on the route - I'm not so sure, especially with a big 77W which is their only widebody / long-haul option. Perhaps something more regional within 737 range, like in SE Asia. Vietnam? Given that I would put HKG up there for VA to start but I have many more reasons why they wouldn't or shouldn't do HKG that is why I can confidently say that I really have no idea what intl destination VA will start next. I can also confidently say that anybody who can correctly predict VA's next intl destination should by a lotto ticket ASAP  
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sat Feb 28, 2015 12:06 pm

Quoting EK413 (Reply 1):

Thankyou sir.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sat Feb 28, 2015 12:38 pm

EK413, thank you for your summary, professional as always.
I note that QF11/12 have been op by 747 26/2 (OEG), 27/2 (OEH) and 28/2 (OJI). This is normally op by A380. I note OQC hasn't flown since returning QF8 25/2 (according to QF tracker), anyone know what the issue is (if any). All other A380's seem gainfully employed (OQJ is still in Manilla).
Spent a great day at Avalon airshow today (son took around 750 photo's). QF was represented by VH XZP (738 retro colours), and absolutely no presence by VA in the form of a static ac display and no booth in the tents that I could see. A fantastic Aussie defence force presentation (over an hours worth) combining air force, army and navel assets, the best combined forces display I have witnessed. It was something to behold.
remember the t shirt "I own an airline"on the front - "qantas" on the back
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sat Feb 28, 2015 1:39 pm

Quoting TN486 (Reply 16):
Spent a great day at Avalon airshow

Yes, it appears to have been one of the best ... About time they got it right! I have been too disappointed over the years by the broken promises of Avalon and general disorganization of it to have made the trip down to Victoria for it, which is a shame as I used to go religiously for all public days every show.
The planes I wished I had seen most this year were undoubtedly the JASDF 767, the private 757 and the water bombing 146. Happily, I got a running commentary the past two days by my mate via text and photos. He even managed to snare a few 1/400 models that I'd wanted for ages, and at cheap prices!
Shame the rumored Scoot Dreamliner visit didn't take place though...
My 'best ever' airshow experience was definitely the 1988 Bicentennial Airshow at Richmond. Wow wow wow...I still break out in huge grins thinking about that one! The sight and sound of the B-52 lumbering in from over the Blue Mountains was just simply amazing!

And I am still trying to find out exactly which roads will be closed when VH-OJA comes into Albion Park. I scouted around the other day to choose the best Location to photograph and film her landing, but info on the road closures (if there will be any at all) may determine my final decision. I know that large crowds are expected...

And anyone interested in a mini-a.net meet afterwards, let me know! I live not too far away and with a 0750 ETA, there will be plenty of time for a meet afterwards. I already have one avgeek staying with me the night before, and he and I will make a big day of it!

Cheers,
Bunumuring.
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sat Feb 28, 2015 2:49 pm

I still think VA should consider flying between MEL and SYD to SFO! Perhaps 4 weekly from SYD and 3 weekly from MEL.
A quick question does VA'S A330'S have the range to fly SYD or MEL to BOM or DEL? Is there enough business to justify having VA and AI flying routes to India?
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sat Feb 28, 2015 3:05 pm

Quoting georgiabill (Reply 18):
I still think VA should consider flying between MEL and SYD to SFO! Perhaps 4 weekly from SYD and 3 weekly from MEL.
A quick question does VA'S A330'S have the range to fly SYD or MEL to BOM or DEL? Is there enough business to justify having VA and AI flying routes to India?

Hi there,
VA and or QF flying to San Francisco is a much debated subject. I agree with you that such a service by either would be a success and present good competition to the United monopoly on the route.
India? I can never quite work out why Qantas has never made a success of services to India (and for that matter, China) when I think any 'lay man' would expect there to be a market for direct services between the two countries. Yes, I understand that airlines like Singapore have substantial hold on Australia-India trips, but why Qantas can't successfully and consistently fly to India is a bit surprising. At least with China one understands that the proliferation of flights from all manner of Chinese cities by Chinese airlines over the past few years has frozen Qantas' ability to expand successfully with it's own metal...
Cheers,
Bunumuring.
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sat Feb 28, 2015 3:17 pm

Quoting georgiabill (Reply 18):
I still think VA should consider flying between MEL and SYD to SFO! Perhaps 4 weekly from SYD and 3 weekly from MEL

Total passenger count for 2013 SYD-SFO was about 210000 seats . SYD-SFO for Nov 2014 was 12564 bums down from 16638 same month 2013. Not heading in the right direction is it . An explanation maybe that QF carried a goodly number via LAX.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sat Feb 28, 2015 3:17 pm

Hi guys,
A quickie: anyone have information about the TAA 'Goldcoaster' colourscheme proposed for the 727-200 as displayed in a poster at the Avalon Airshow at the moment...? Obviously it was never used but would have beautifully complimented the 'Coral Islander' scheme on the TAA DC-9 and the other outback scheme on a 727!
Why wasn't it used?
Cheers,
Bunumuring.
I just wanna live while I'm alive!
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sat Feb 28, 2015 8:17 pm

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 20):

Perhaps VA using the 777s to SFO will result in a smaller loss than they are currently generating on AUH et al ?  
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sat Feb 28, 2015 8:33 pm

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 12):
VA seem to be a carrier that hasn't quite grasped the position in the market that it is a best fit for, especially internatioally.

  

Virgin Schizophrenia?

Clearly, JB has a yearning to take it upmarket, while "singing the praises" of Tiger.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 14):
I can also confidently say that anybody who can correctly predict VA's next intl destination should by a lotto ticket ASAP

Not in its present state, but I'd suggest LAS.

Las Vegas has a "low yield" reputation among a.netters - Bogan Heaven. It is that (although Bogan dollars are still legal tender), but it is also much more than that, an (almost) season-proof resort destination that spans the income spectrum and is in the Top 10 of busiest US airports.

One day, an airline will crack Oz-LAS service, although it might require some out-of-the-box thinking - interline or some other booking agreement with Southwest Airlines, perhaps?

It might have been an ideal destination for V Australia and Virgin Atlantic is happy to fly there. While it might not appeal to JB, it would give the airline something different, something noticeable and unlikely to be replicated by Qantas.

LAS is on Air NZ's short list of three (with ORD and IAH) for a new US city and JB could always hold his nose.  

mariner

[Edited 2015-02-28 13:01:05]
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:56 pm

Quoting Qf2220 (Reply 22):
Perhaps VA using the 777s to SFO will result in a smaller loss than they are currently generating on AUH

Or dare we consider the "P" word - profit? There has been talk that when QF flew to SFO is was profitable, and that was with 747's - surely VA have a lower cost structure at the current time than what QF did back in the 2000's when the route was dropped, and with the 77W being better economics than a 744 who knows what might happen. Did QF ever run first class for SFO or was it at the time just business and economy?

SFO would be a better option that AUH - flight time from SYD or BNE is not as much as to AUH (reduces fuel cost), but would require one (maybe two) more aircraft to make it a daily flight. If VA could potentially squeeze out 4x weekly flights ex SYD with feed at the SFO end from DL and possibly VX then they may just be on a winner, but can't loose sight of potentially going daily to be of more appeal.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sat Feb 28, 2015 10:36 pm

Quoting Bluebird191 (Reply 24):
SFO would be a better option that AUH - flight time from SYD or BNE is not as much as to AUH (reduces fuel cost), but would require one (maybe two) more aircraft to make it a daily flight.

SFO and AUH will have pretty much identical flight times from SYD - approx. 14-15hrs depending on the direction flown.

Quoting Bluebird191 (Reply 24):
There has been talk that when QF flew to SFO is was profitable, and that was with 747's - surely VA have a lower cost structure at the current time than what QF did back in the 2000's when the route was dropped, and with the 77W being better economics than a 744 who knows what might happen.

Cost is one thing, revenue/yield is another. VA's yields are still lower compared with QF on LAX routes. Flying into SFO also has the potential to take some of their existing LAX traffic. Either way, VA will need additional aircraft and/or new aircraft, 5 77W's doesn't give VA a lot of options.
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sat Feb 28, 2015 10:48 pm

Quoting Bluebird191 (Reply 24):
but would require one (maybe two) more aircraft to make it a daily flight.

Or they could potentially drop BNE back down from daily again?
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sat Feb 28, 2015 10:59 pm

Quoting bunumuring (Reply 17):
And anyone interested in a mini-a.net meet afterwards, let me know!

Now that I have seen my roster there is no way I will be watching the landing in person. I finish work at 2 am that morning and then start work again at 12 noon. However, depending on how I feel if I wake up, I might go out and watch the takeoff @ SYD - somebody has to watch the last takeoff, right???  
Quoting georgiabill (Reply 18):
A quick question does VA'S A330'S have the range to fly SYD or MEL to BOM or DEL?

IIRC the VA A330s are only allowed to operate domestic flights. But... I could be wrong, very wrong - it wouldn't be the first time nor last  

So, as far as VA new intl destinations go, I would suspect it would either be something regional within the range of their 737s or something long-haul that their 77Ws would operate.

Quoting mariner (Reply 23):
Las Vegas has a "low yield" reputation among a.netters - Bogan Heaven.
Quoting mariner (Reply 23):
One day, an airline will crack Oz-LAS service, although it might require some out-of-the-box thinking -

I believe that the 788 would be ideal for Oz-LAS.

Also, since you mentioned 'low yeilding', and 'bogan' to a lesser extent', JQ comes to mind to operate such a route before VA. JQ do like their tourist destinations - which Vegas is.

In fact, the 788 has the legs, and JQ has the 788 and is the low-yeilding expert.

If the UA 788 can operate LAX-MEL @ 7,932 miles then the JQ 788 should be able to operate SYD-LAS @ 7,729 miles.

Was the UA 788 facing payload restrictions on the days it operated LAX-MEL between 789 operated services???

Having said that, I wouldn't want to sit in a JQ 788 for that long, but if the price was right and Vegas was on my itinerary...

  
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sat Feb 28, 2015 11:01 pm

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 14):
As discussed in the previous thread there aren't really any destinations that would come close to being a 'no-brainer' for VA. I was thinking HKG but to go up against QF and CX on the route - I'm not so sure, especially with a big 77W which is their only widebody / long-haul option. Perhaps something more regional within 737 range, like in SE Asia. Vietnam? Given that I would put HKG up there for VA to start but I have many more reasons why they wouldn't or shouldn't do HKG that is why I can confidently say that I really have no idea what intl destination VA will start next.

Borghetti has been on record saying that he doesn't "see the value" in an Asian strategy.

Quote:
For the prospect of Virgin pursuing an "Asian strategy" to partake in growth in Northern Asia, and China in particular, Mr Borghetti says: “My reply is always 'Why? Why would we do that? What is it that would do for our core business?'... That to me would be a distraction. I don’t see the value in it. You’re not going to see us doing that in the foreseeable future."
Virgin Australia CEO John Borghetti interview: dual-brand strategies, Asia & being a modern airline

As for VA & SFO, they can really only offer 3x weekly flights due to the low number of 77Ws in the fleet. As we saw with VA doing 3x weekly MEL-LAX, they found it tough to compete against competitors with daily flights. VA would likely need feed at SFO, which they can get from VX. But I could only find 2 destinations offered by VX at SFO that DL don't offer out of LAX - IAD/DCA & SJD.

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 20):
Total passenger count for 2013 SYD-SFO was about 210000 seats . SYD-SFO for Nov 2014 was 12564 bums down from 16638 same month 2013. Not heading in the right direction is it . An explanation maybe that QF carried a goodly number via LAX.

It could also be that UA's MEL-SFO pax who used to fly MEL-SYD-SFO now fly MEL-LAX-SFO.

Quoting bunumuring (Reply 19):
India? I can never quite work out why Qantas has never made a success of services to India (and for that matter, China) when I think any 'lay man' would expect there to be a market for direct services between the two countries. Yes, I understand that airlines like Singapore have substantial hold on Australia-India trips, but why Qantas can't successfully and consistently fly to India is a bit surprising.

The Australia-India market is not concentrated on one or two cities, it is polycentric. This benefits a mid-point carrier like SQ who can offer several one-stop options to the market. QF flying (say) SYD-BOM means anyone outside these two cities needs at least one stop to get where they are going.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sat Feb 28, 2015 11:04 pm

Quoting Bluebird191 (Reply 24):



I don't coment much on VA but taking a look at it I think they should look to focus on strengths and bail out of the weaker parts and use codeshares there. Generally for Australian airlines, the Americas routes are naturally more profitable.

With the 777s, VA currently run:

SYD-LAX
MEL-LAX
BNE-LAX
SYD-AUH

(If someone with better knowledge of the VA fleet can correct me if im wrong, and add in the frames needed for each service that would be great)

To me, more USA travel could be beneficial, cutting AUH and possibly others. LAX is of course the #1 port to serve but there are some other options too. SFO at 3/4pw with VX and DL connections could make sense. SEA at 3/4pw with DL connections could also make sense. And I do like mariner's idea of LAS. All 3 ports would be points of difference to QF and offer something else to what QF offers. It may also put VA back on the front foot and QF back into the follower role, roles which VA has used in the past for good effect.

Also, a fleet simplification to replace the 330s and 777s would help, especially maintenance cost wise. I think ive seen suggestions that a 789 might go well at VA, though the lacklustre orderbook for 358s might lead to some good discounts on purchase price for VA for those. Or if the 332NEOs have the range, them. The 789s have a benefit of commonality with SQ/Scoot and NZ fleets and could be wrapped into existant maintenance agreements to reduce costs further.

Finally the EY relationship could now be a hindrance. SQ could be a good partner for both Europe and Asia. If VA was to offer flights through SIN to destinations in Europe and Asia, yes it will be mirroring the old QF approach, but it would also be offering what QF used to offer. QF operations through DXB hasn't seen a massive exodus to other carriers, but VA offering SIN as the stopover port would perhaps bring a few people back who just like SIN better than DXB.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sat Feb 28, 2015 11:20 pm

Quoting Qf2220 (Reply 29):
With the 777s, VA currently run:

SYD-LAX
MEL-LAX
BNE-LAX
SYD-AUH

The don't fly MEL-LAX anymore. They ditched this route to take BNE-LAX to daily.

Quoting Qf2220 (Reply 29):
SEA at 3/4pw with DL connections could also make sense. And I do like mariner's idea of LAS

Too little originating traffic at either port would mean these wouldn't work. LAS would be too much leisure with no obvious connections. SEA is a bit off-Broadway.

Quoting Qf2220 (Reply 29):
789 might go well at VA, though the lacklustre orderbook for 358s might lead to some good discounts on purchase price for VA for those.

The 789 would go well. I doubt Airbus are interested in selling more A358s. They would prefer to save the development cost and move customers to A330NEO or A359. The 359 would be a good option being a little smaller than the 77W and with much lower operating costs. The 77W was always a bit big but at the time of the order, the 787 and A350 were in the distant future.

Quoting Qf2220 (Reply 29):
The 789s have a benefit of commonality with SQ/Scoot and NZ fleets and could be wrapped into existant maintenance agreements to reduce costs further.

SQ will also have maintenance agreements for the A350.

Quoting Qf2220 (Reply 29):
Finally the EY relationship could now be a hindrance.

EY is a major shareholder and the relationship is no different now than it was a year ago.

Quoting Qf2220 (Reply 29):
QF operations through DXB hasn't seen a massive exodus to other carriers, but VA offering SIN as the stopover port would perhaps bring a few people back who just like SIN better than DXB.

DXB hasn't grown the base for QF but it hasn't been a complete disaster either. Many prefer SIN to DXB as a stopover point and QF probably should've kept a Europe route via SIN open but apparently they traded this option away with EK.
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sat Feb 28, 2015 11:36 pm

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 27):
Also, since you mentioned 'low yeilding', and 'bogan' to a lesser extent', JQ comes to mind to operate such a route before VA. JQ do like their tourist destinations - which Vegas is.

Could be, but as they have so far shown no interest in LAS, I was thinking of it for Virgin Australia.

"LAS as low yielding" is an a.net mantra - I'm not sure how much I agree because it isn't only that - but even if it's true, the way to deal with it, assuming demand, is with higher capacity.

However, given JB's comments above about an Asian strategy - as in not - then where? He says the US and NZ are the bread and butter international routes, but neither have grown.

"Mr Borghetti cautions that in the China discussion Australia should not forget about its "bread and butter" international markets, the US and New Zealand.

Yet despite having a presence in these core international markets, Virgin has not grown in either the US or New Zealand. To New Zealand, Virgin's partner Air New Zealand has slightly grown over the period of their marriage."


The only hint of an answer that I can find is SIN - but that might create problems with Singapore Airlines:

"Virgin would likely want to fly to Singapore but from key Australian cities like Melbourne and Sydney, whereas Singapore Airlines prefers to fly from those cities and have Virgin take secondary routes, like Darwin-Singapore, in which Virgin is not interested."

I dunno.

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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sat Feb 28, 2015 11:50 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 31):
The only hint of an answer that I can find is SIN - but that might create problems with Singapore Airlines:

"Virgin would likely want to fly to Singapore but from key Australian cities like Melbourne and Sydney, whereas Singapore Airlines prefers to fly from those cities and have Virgin take secondary routes, like Darwin-Singapore, in which Virgin is not interested."

This makes sense though, SQ's Australian routes are some of their most profitable and this stage, there is nothing to suggest there is a lack of capacity between Oz-SIN. The only reasons why SQ would want VA to fly SIN to PER/ADL/MEL/SYD/BNE would be if they were short of aircraft themselves or if they had other destinations where they could deploy their aircraft to more profitably. SQ also have Scoot to operate in the market as well, so introducing another carrier doesn't really make sense in the whole scheme of the VA/SQ partnership.
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sat Feb 28, 2015 11:57 pm

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 14):
Quoting EK413 (Reply 1):

Excellent recap!
Quoting Qf2220 (Reply 15):

Quoting EK413 (Reply 1):

Thankyou sir.
Quoting TN486 (Reply 16):
EK413, thank you for your summary, professional as always.

Welcome  
Quoting TN486 (Reply 16):
I note that QF11/12 have been op by 747 26/2 (OEG), 27/2 (OEH) and 28/2 (OJI). This is normally op by A380.

Don't quote me but I believe 1 x A380 went tech therefore resulted in the QF0011 being down gauged to B744 equipment. I believe this had a domino effect resulting in the QF0087 having a 19 hour delay on the 27/02.

Quoting bunumuring (Reply 17):
My 'best ever' airshow experience was definitely the 1988 Bicentennial Airshow at Richmond. Wow wow wow..

I remember the Richmond Airshow in 1991 and a QF B744 (I believe it was VHOJA   ) made an appearance performing a number of low fly-bys sporting the We Go Further logo. Memorable Airshow and it's a shame it was moved to Avalon  
Quoting bunumuring (Reply 17):
And anyone interested in a mini-a.net meet afterwards, let me know! I live not too far away and with a 0750 ETA, there will be plenty of time for a meet afterwards.

I'm working nightshift evening prior but I plan to be there. Wouldn't miss it!

Quoting Bluebird191 (Reply 24):
Did QF ever run first class for SFO or was it at the time just business and economy?

From memory QF operated the route with a 14P66J40W187Y configuration so yes I believe QF had a First Class offering.

EK413
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sun Mar 01, 2015 12:03 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 31):
"LAS as low yielding" is an a.net mantra - I'm not sure how much I agree because it isn't only that - but even if it's true, the way to deal with it, assuming demand, is with higher capacity.

I think BA sustaining LHR-LAS flights has kind of disproven this a.net theory.If the traffic was that low yielding, BA would keep it to just LGW-LAS instead of both. Apparently LAS is one of the largest convention markets in the world - conventions are hardly low yielding.

The only issue I see with LAS is a lack of demand ex-LAS. The flight will mostly be serving demand ex-Australia, and I'm not sure that's enough. NZ could be better placed to make a go of it by combining Australian & NZ feed.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sun Mar 01, 2015 12:08 am

Quoting SYDSpotter (Reply 32):
This makes sense though, SQ's Australian routes are some of their most profitable and this stage, there is nothing to suggest there is a lack of capacity between Oz-SIN.

Sure, it makes sense, especially for SQ - although Air NZ found a way to do it.

But again, SIN is the only clue that i could find to JB's international plans, other than the US and NZ, and if it isn't SIN, then I don't know where.

Which brings us straight back to your starting point:

Quoting SYDSpotter (Reply 8):
I can't see anywhere apart from North America where they could deploy widebodies to (i.e. their 77W's).

With which I agreed.

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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sun Mar 01, 2015 12:24 am

Quoting qfvhoqa (Reply 34):
I think BA sustaining LHR-LAS flights has kind of disproven this a.net theory.If the traffic was that low yielding, BA would keep it to just LGW-LAS instead of both. Apparently LAS is one of the largest convention markets in the world - conventions are hardly low yielding.

And Virgin Atlantic, another "second airline", which also serves LAX and SFO.

Quoting qfvhoqa (Reply 34):
The only issue I see with LAS is a lack of demand ex-LAS.

The same would be true of any resort destination, but for many airlines those resorts are the bread and butter.

mariner
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sun Mar 01, 2015 12:28 am

Quoting tullamarine (Reply 30):
DXB hasn't grown the base for QF but it hasn't been a complete disaster either. Many prefer SIN to DXB as a stopover point and QF probably should've kept a Europe route via SIN open but apparently they traded this option away with EK.

I do wonder how many people have switched to flying BA itineraries via SIN or HKG, as you can take QF flights to those points (with BA codes) and connect. Heck, you could probably exploit a multi-city booking to force something like SYD-NRT-LHR and have the choice of QF or JL on the first leg and JL or BA on the second.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sun Mar 01, 2015 12:57 am

Quoting XAM2175 (Reply 37):
I do wonder how many people have switched to flying BA itineraries via SIN or HKG, as you can take QF flights to those points (with BA codes) and connect.

But the QF services to/from these points aren't timed to connect with those onward flights to LHR. I don't know the precise timings of services to/from HKG/SIN to LHR, but I would be surprised if both outbound/inbound flights had connections within 2-3 hours. In the case of HKG, I believe BA now codeshare with CX now for Australian connections.

Your suggested itineraries only make sense if you want stopovers in Asia as opposed to DXB.
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sun Mar 01, 2015 12:58 am

Is QF'S service to YVR seasonal? If so is there enough of a market between Western Canada and Australia to justify two carriers flying between YVR and Australia? Would VA'S 777-300ER'S be to big for the route?
Does the A330 have the range to fly non stop between SYD or MEL to BOM or DEL without significant payload restrictions? If not could VA or QF operate nonstops between Australia and India? Air India is already flying the routes. Just curious if there might enough traffic to justify two carriers?

Thanks for any thoughts on the subject
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sun Mar 01, 2015 12:59 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 36):
The same would be true of any resort destination, but for many airlines those resorts are the bread and butter.

That's true, but there aren't many 14-15 hour flights to resort destinations. Some scheduled-charter airlines run 12 hour flights like DE's FRA-MRU, but is that something VA (or QF for that matter) should be emulating?
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sun Mar 01, 2015 1:18 am

Quoting qfvhoqa (Reply 40):
That's true, but there aren't many 14-15 hour flights to resort destinations.
AMS-DPS springs to mind, and LAS is scarcely much further from SYD than SFO - or YVR, which Qantas is flying for the skiing traffic in (northern) winter:

http://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/med...couver-for-summer-and-ski-holidays

"QANTAS TO FLY TO VANCOUVER FOR SUMMER AND SKI HOLIDAYS"

So I'm not sure I understand your point. Anywhere in the US is a long way from Australia, and generally, I think that airlines do best flying to where people want to go, when they want to go there, seasonally or otherwise.

mariner

[Edited 2015-02-28 17:23:33]
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sun Mar 01, 2015 1:30 am

Quoting tullamarine (Reply 30):
DXB hasn't grown the base for QF but it hasn't been a complete disaster either. Many prefer SIN to DXB as a stopover point and QF probably should've kept a Europe route via SIN open but apparently they traded this option away with EK.

Do you have any further information to back this up, other than anecdotal? From what anecdotal I'm hearing in Sydney is that many people prefer DXB due to there being more connections than either SIN or HKG which get them closer to their final destination. From a personal point of view my preferred entry point to Europe is Venice, which is much, much easier via DXB.

I doubt well know the real results for many, many years. Like all major changes (and via DXB instead of SIN IS A MAJOR change), it takes time for people to adjust and take advantage of it.

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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sun Mar 01, 2015 1:41 am

Quoting tullamarine (Reply 30):
Too little originating traffic at either port would mean these wouldn't work. LAS would be too much leisure with no obvious connections. SEA is a bit off-Broadway.

Couldn't the same be said of DFW and QF? And yet QF is making DFW work.

Treated like a gateway, with a strong partner on the other side, I think there is a lot of merit to SEA.

As a MEL resident who frequently visits the US, I think I see a hole in the market. None of the big 3 American carriers have exceptional connections out of LAX, they all work to the big cities but if you are going anywhere else East of the Mississippi (other than NY), connections out of LAX can be very long. AA is very strong out of DFW but that flight is not very accessible for me as a MEL resident.

SFO is a United hub, but isn't SEA a major DL hub? The 2D map can be misleading, SYD-SEA is basically the same distance as SYD-LAX and SYD-SFO. So why not try that? You'll be offering something different than LAX and SFO that currently have many flights to Australia, and you might win a lot of passengers based on connections that DL can offer.

A bit of further out of the box thinking, and I would say this flight should be launched either from MEL or BNE. QF to North America is not as strong in these markets as they are in SYD (because of the DFW factor). Launching a BNE-SEA or a MEL-SEA route could very well cover a lot of bases where the current VA's me-too strategy is simply failing.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sun Mar 01, 2015 1:46 am

Why did a RAAF A330 tanker land on runway 34L at SYD and taxi to and park at the international terminal? As it did yesterday arvo. I have not seen one of them at SYD before, but why park at the international terminal? Stealthy looking plane I'll say that much!

 
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sun Mar 01, 2015 2:05 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 41):
So I'm not sure I understand your point.

I guess my point is that full service carriers chasing premium pax (which VA now positions itself as) don't tend to fly very long flights to leisure destinations.
When VA submitted their proposal for the DL-VA partnership they claimed they needed the feed at LAX to succeed. With no feed at LAS and little demand from that end, how will they succeed?
QF's service to YVR also coincided with a WS codeshare. Would the flights have taken place without this in place? We don't know and probably never will.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sun Mar 01, 2015 2:09 am

Quoting a36001 (Reply 44):
Why did a RAAF A330 tanker land on runway 34L at SYD and taxi to and park at the international terminal?

Charter service requiring customs clearance my wild guess? Must say this would've been an impressive sight parked at the International Terminal

EK413
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sun Mar 01, 2015 2:29 am

Quoting qfvhoqa (Reply 45):
When VA submitted their proposal for the DL-VA partnership they claimed they needed the feed at LAX to succeed. With no feed at LAS and little demand from that end, how will they succeed?

Um - I did suggest that whoever flies it might need some (US) partner at LAS:

Quoting mariner (Reply 23):
One day, an airline will crack Oz-LAS service, although it might require some out-of-the-box thinking - interline or some other booking agreement with Southwest Airlines, perhaps?

Then again, LAS is not a major Star Alliance hub, although United does fly to several important cities, yet Air NZ has it on its short list:

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/3...says-cheaper-fares-could-be-coming

"Air New Zealand is also working on plans to fly to a third United States mainland destination, in the interior or close to the eastern seaboard. Luxon said he hoped to make an announcement soon on the new route.

Cities in the running include Chicago, Houston and Las Vegas."


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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sun Mar 01, 2015 2:54 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 47):
Cities in the running include Chicago, Houston and Las Vegas.

The logical choice would be IAH though ORD is also a UA hub but would be really stretching the 789's legs westbound. LAS seems a poor choice with limited onward connections and nothing that LAX doesn't already offer.

Quoting aryonoco (Reply 43):
Couldn't the same be said of DFW and QF? And yet QF is making DFW work

Except DFW is AA's number 1 hub so there are a huge number of connections to the midwest and east coast. SEA doesn't offer much in excess of LAX given the uplift opportunities from LAX on both DL and VX.

Quoting qfvhoqa (Reply 34):
I think BA sustaining LHR-LAS flights has kind of disproven this a.net theory.If the traffic was that low yielding, BA would keep it to just LGW-LAS instead of both. Apparently LAS is one of the largest convention markets in the world - conventions are hardly low yielding.

LAS is about 10 hour flight from LHR compared with 15 from SYD. UK has a population of 50+M all within an hour's flight of LHR. Australia has half that with most being over an hour from SYD. I can't see it working.

A good example of why it doesn't work is BA avoiding any services to HNL. HNL is a huge leisure market but is too far from UK to make sense. Leisure travellers there prefer closer destinations such as the Med, Middle East, Caribbean etc. LAS is too far to be a single destination for Australian travellers who will choose Asia, Pacific etc. for a single destination holiday. LAS will be visited by Australian as part of a mlti-destination holiday but chances are that will also include LA so there is no real gain by servicing LAS in addition to LAX.
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 116

Sun Mar 01, 2015 3:17 am

Quoting tullamarine (Reply 48):
The logical choice would be IAH though ORD is also a UA hub but would be really stretching the 789's legs westbound. LAS seems a poor choice with limited onward connections and nothing that LAX doesn't already offer.

I don't understand IAH. I know it;s a United hub and is a a bit closer to the eastern seaboard, but it's not a famous tourist town and the weather is summer is miserable. I wouldn't want to be stuck in IAH because of missed connection in August. Think New Orleans in August when the locals just get out of town if they can.

A business market, perhaps, but who's going to fill the back of the plane? That said, Kiwis are fairly resourceful travellers, so if Air NZ chooses IAH it will probity work, but it doesn't do it for me.

Quoting tullamarine (Reply 48):
A good example of why it doesn't work is BA avoiding any services to HNL.

The reason British doesn't fly to HNL is because Hawaii doesn't offer much that travellers can't get closer to the UK, as you said:

Quoting tullamarine (Reply 48):
such as the Med, Middle East, Caribbean etc.

To which I'd add closer (to Europe) Asia.

Ideally, even beach resorts are more than beaches. LAS offers a complete experience you can only get in very few places in the world - and I can't think of too many others - such as a vast array of shows starring some of the greatest entertainers in the world, some of the best (if enormous) hotels in the world (who will give you excellent rates) and terrific dining. Other than beaches it is an extraordinary vacation experience - complete with sex tourism, it you want that. It is designed as party town, catering to all incomes and with over 40 million visitors in 2014, it is successful as that.

And not to forget the gambling, which is a fairly popular pastime for many Australians.

mariner

[Edited 2015-02-28 19:22:18]
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