PHX787
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PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 3:20 pm

I was recently visiting PHX and I had a chance to talk to some businesspeople in the area. I also was present at the Arizona Japan Matsuri, and both of these occasions afforded me the opportunity to speak with many people from both the airport, American Airlines (US/AA) and JL officials who were visiting along with the Los Angeles Consul-General from Japan.

Everyone seems to ring the same bell- "Service between PHX and NRT and/or some point in Asia is simply a matter of when. Not if, anymore."

Mostly they are waiting for both the metal (787s and A350s) and more commitments from businesses in the valley...and the latter should be coming much sooner than many of you here would have ever imagined.

The other PHX thread had a post which showed PHX's position in terms of service compared to other cities in the USA- We are busier than DTW and IAD. We are the busiest airport in the US without a flight to Asia, according to the airport officials.

With a growing number of Asian businesses relocating their West Coast ops from Cali to Arizona, these people tell me that the flight the a-net community apparently has dubbed "PHX787's Dream Flight" is going to be announced much sooner than people think.

I don't have the numbers right off my hand but I do have the evidence to prove my point- at least 10 or 15 people I know that I met in Japan were originally going to be sent to a point in California for their work but were instead sent to Phoenix or Tucson. Also, former gov. Jan Brewer's efforts and frequent trips to Asia have been met with success.

Driving around the valley last weekend also showed me this- the valley is back to growing to the rate it was growing before the Great Recession. Construction is everywhere I can see these days. People who have lived in the valley their whole life and said they were about to leave during the great recession have said they found better work by staying in the valley.

I Call on the a-net community to finally realize that PHX is not just some busy bustling wasteland airport. The airport is not going to be downsized at this rate. It would be extremely stupid of AA to cut PHX as a hub especially at a time of enormous growth around the valley. Also, As I have always said- PHX-Asia is happening, and might be happening a lot sooner than you think.

-PHX787
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a380787
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PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 3:25 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Thread starter):


Everyone seems to ring the same bell- "Service between PHX and NRT and/or some point in Asia is simply a matter of when. Not if, anymore."

And A-net has been saying the same thing about PHL-NRT and MIA-NRT too.....
 
runway23
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PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 3:26 pm

When could of course be never...
 
commavia
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PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 3:28 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Thread starter):
Everyone seems to ring the same bell- "Service between PHX and NRT and/or some point in Asia is simply a matter of when. Not if, anymore."

I'll be interested to see if/when "everyone" is quoted in public.

Quoting PHX787 (Thread starter):
I Call on the a-net community to finally realize that PHX is not just some busy bustling wasteland airport.

I call on you to tell us who in the "a-net community" ever called PHX "some busy bustling wasteland."

Quoting PHX787 (Thread starter):
Also, As I have always said- PHX-Asia is happening, and might be happening a lot sooner than you think.

Will believe it when I see it. Possible, but I'm not holding my breath.
 
phxa340
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PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 3:28 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Thread starter):

Multiple NRT flights are available a mere 40 minutes away via LAX. Phoenix doesn't have the demand to support an NRT flight. AA most likely will be shrinking the PHX hub, not growing it.
 
BlatantEcho
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PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 3:37 pm

I think a lot of people, myself included, are expecting a significant amount of cuts to phx once the merger is complete.

It's hard to imagine AA wanting PHX to distract them from LAX.
that said, maybe a JAL or someone might do it.

I didn't think anyone went to the Phoenix area on purpose that wasn't from there.
Are there many tourists for a reason I don't grasp?

Maybe the Grand Canyon, but I don't know why someone from Asia would visit the area for fun.

Perhaps with Intel and apple and other companies getting subsidies from the government to expand, there will be more reasons for an Asia flight to happen?

--
As someone who has spent a decent amount of time in AZ, I'm always shocked by the urban sprawl and choking dirty dusty and hot climate.

I'm impressed people live there. Where does the water come from?

[Edited 2015-03-02 07:40:21]

[Edited 2015-03-02 07:41:22]
 
PHX787
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PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 3:38 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 1):
And A-net has been saying the same thing about PHL-NRT and MIA-NRT too.....

I'm sure both of those are a matter of when as well.

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 4):
):

 
Follow me on twitter: www.twitter.com/phx787
 
S75752
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PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 3:38 pm

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 4):
Phoenix doesn't have the demand to support an NRT flight.

What PHX does have is connections, and lots of them. PHX and DFW can handle NRT connections, LAX will be full of O&D.
 
realsim
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PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 3:58 pm

From an AA point of view (and not PHX point of view), IMO PHL makes much more sense as a new non-stop route to NRT. Almost all the connections west of DFW that could be offered via PHX are already flown from LAX by AA, so PHX brings little from a network perspective. PHL, however, brings a lot of eastern cities that are not flown by AA neither from ORD nor JFK.

That doesn't mean that I could not see a PHX-NRT flight, but if it is not launched by JL, AA has more important priorities. In fact, I think that NRT is not one of them (either from PHL, PHX or MIA), and that the main focus right now is at LAX-ICN/PEK/HKG/AKL.
 
DiamondFlyer
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PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 4:03 pm

Quoting BlatantEcho (Reply 5):
As someone who has spent a decent amount of time in AZ, I'm always shocked by the urban sprawl and choking dirty dusty and hot climate.

I'm impressed people live there. Where does the water come from?

Arizona is probably my favorite place in the country. Sure, its hot, but it isn't humid, and that's what matters. Water comes from the rivers that have dams on them, to make large lakes. There are a couple around the PHX area.

-DiamondFlyer
From my cold, dead hands
 
Flighty
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PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 4:04 pm

PHX, I think it is a matter of "who" and "why," not a matter of "if" or "when"....  
 
phxa340
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PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 4:08 pm

Quoting S75752 (Reply 7):

You just stated the reason PHX probably won't receive the NRT flight. DFW to the east to handle connections and LAX to the west.

With that said I would be thrilled to see this flight come to reality. How would a 788 do in the summer when the runway pavement is 120 + degrees F ?
 
a380787
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PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 4:10 pm

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 11):

With that said I would be thrilled to see this flight come to reality. How would a 788 do in the summer when the runway pavement is 120 + degrees F ?

those 787 batteries can catch fire again /s
 
wn676
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PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 4:14 pm

Quoting BlatantEcho (Reply 5):
I didn't think anyone went to the Phoenix area on purpose that wasn't from there.
Are there many tourists for a reason I don't grasp?

Snowbirds. There are *lots* of them here right now. And contrary to what you might interpret from driving around town, there are a fair number of them that actually elect to fly.

Quoting BlatantEcho (Reply 5):
I'm impressed people live there. Where does the water come from?

Mostly from the Colorado and Salt/Verde watersheds. Just remember that the next time you're floating down the Salt River with a 24-pack.  
__


Honestly, it's been a "matter of when" for a quite some time now. In 2007 we heard an NRT flight would be operating "by 2009." Then it became "by 2010." Then it became "US to launch Tokyo in 2012" with the DL slot-swap. That was actually the most concrete language we've ever had from an airline in regards to a TPAC flight from PHX, and yet here we are in 2015. I passed out from holding my breath long ago.

[Edited 2015-03-02 08:16:18]
Tiny, unreadable text leaves ample room for interpretation.
 
MVAair
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PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 4:15 pm

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 4):
Multiple NRT flights are available a mere 40 minutes away via LAX. Phoenix doesn't have the demand to support an NRT flight. AA most likely will be shrinking the PHX hub, not growing it.

Yes, PHX does indeed have the demand plus connections, espeailly top Mexico.

Quoting BlatantEcho (Reply 5):
It's hard to imagine AA wanting PHX to distract them from LAX.
that said, maybe a JAL or someone might do it.

How much more can AA grow in LAX.

Everyone is forgetting that AA has cut regional flying from LAX but not from PHX. Indicating they see a role for PHX.

There is a fundamental misunderstanding on A.net concerning the AA/US merger. It wasnt a merger meant to shrink the two carriers. It was a merger meant to make AA large enough to compete with UA and DL.
 
wn676
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PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 4:31 pm

Quoting MVAair (Reply 14):
Yes, PHX does indeed have the demand plus connections, espeailly top Mexico.

PHX-Mexico air O&D is rather unimpressive especially considering the demographics. It's dwarfed by Canadian O&D numbers. I believe the majority of the Mexico demand is to border towns and regions outside of MEX/GDL and the beach destinations. There are a few bus operators that cater to this and from personal experience this seems to be the preferred method of travel over flying. If I'm not mistaken even Y4 has recently cut back here.
Tiny, unreadable text leaves ample room for interpretation.
 
MaverickM11
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PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 4:38 pm

Quoting S75752 (Reply 7):
What PHX does have is connections, and lots of them. PHX and DFW can handle NRT connections, LAX will be full of O&D.

Connections to where? I can't imagine what is covered by PHX that isn't covered by multiple daily LAX/DFW nonstops...YUM/FLG/LGB? Maybe JL can cobble some demand together from PHX to NRT and beyond to Asia but it's probably not in AA's wheelhouse right now...

Quoting Flighty (Reply 10):
PHX, I think it is a matter of "who" and "why," not a matter of "if" or "when"....  

  
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
wn676
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PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 4:39 pm

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 11):
With that said I would be thrilled to see this flight come to reality. How would a 788 do in the summer when the runway pavement is 120 + degrees F ?

Hopefully better than HP's 747s which had a tendency to sink into the AC at T3.  

In all seriousness an NRT flight would probably avoid the hottest part of the day in the summer. While it's hot around the 11a-Noon timeframe, it's nothing compared to the late afternoon (which coincidentally is just a few hours before BA departs).

[Edited 2015-03-02 08:45:03]
Tiny, unreadable text leaves ample room for interpretation.
 
wn676
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PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 4:44 pm

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 16):
Connections to where? I can't imagine what is covered by PHX that isn't covered by multiple daily LAX/DFW nonstops...YUM/FLG/LGB? Maybe JL can cobble some demand together from PHX to NRT and beyond to Asia but it's probably not in AA's wheelhouse right now...

SE Asia connections on the Tokyo end would be the more important factor IMO. It seems to me like a lot of people are double-connecting over LAX and hubs like ICN/TPE to reach their final destinations at this point in time. Relying on connections over PHX is not the most logical thing to do when you take into account the combined AA network.
Tiny, unreadable text leaves ample room for interpretation.
 
steex
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PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 5:01 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Thread starter):
I Call on the a-net community to finally realize that PHX is not just some busy bustling wasteland airport. The airport is not going to be downsized at this rate.

I call on "fanboys" of any airport to realize to realize said airport is not an extension of your personal being or member of your family, and therefore it is unnecessary to take offense anytime someone suggests service levels may decrease there. Generally speaking, even the people who predict an AA drawdown of some level at PHX recognize the demographics of the Phoenix area, they moreso believe that the airline will seek to reduce capacity somewhere and reducing a hub is a good way to do that. In AA's network, they believe PHX is the most likely hub for reductions.

There is some interesting information here and it's always neat to hear what people are hearing from folks at airports or the business community even if it should be categorized as a rumor (it is all still anecdotal), but I think it's pretty unnecessary to have presented this in the context of demanding the Phoenix area be shown the respect it deserves.

[Edited 2015-03-02 09:03:00]
 
MAH4546
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PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 5:12 pm

Quoting MVAair (Reply 14):
Everyone is forgetting that AA has cut regional flying from LAX but not from PHX. Indicating they see a role for PHX.

That statement has absolutely no truth to it, unless your definition of "cut regional flying" is "discontinued LAX-SBA."
a.
 
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cageyjames
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PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 5:18 pm

Quoting steex (Reply 19):

So we're going to shrink this airline until it is profitable. That works well.
 
wn676
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PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 5:32 pm

Quoting steex (Reply 19):
call on "fanboys" of any airport to realize to realize said airport is not an extension of your personal being or member of your family, and therefore it is unnecessary to take offense anytime someone suggests service levels may decrease there. Generally speaking, even the people who predict an AA drawdown of some level at PHX recognize the demographics of the Phoenix area, they moreso believe that the airline will seek to reduce capacity somewhere and reducing a hub is a good way to do that. In AA's network, they believe PHX is the most likely hub for reductions.

There is some interesting information here and it's always neat to hear what people are hearing from folks at airports or the business community even if it should be categorized as a rumor (it is all still anecdotal), but I think it's pretty unnecessary to have presented this in the context of demanding the Phoenix area be shown the respect it deserves.

It's important to remember too that you now have arguably one of the most pro-PHX management teams in the industry heading up AA at the moment. Before anyone asks if such a thing even exists, we've heard multiple times from Parker, Kirby, et al, of their optimistic "wishes" and "intents" to operate long-haul from PHX. They remained committed to the hub through the recession; even if it had been out of necessity for the health of the overall network, they managed to turn it into a profitable hub and implemented scheduling strategies that were and still are being deployed to not only other hubs but now a new airline. But even they acknowledge that the market conditions have still not evolved to that point. I think it goes without saying that when the market has matured enough and makes financial sense to an airline we'll see a flight here; it's not because PHX is being slighted on misconceptions about its demographics, culture, geography, or due to some industry-wide conspiracy dreamed up in a top-floor conference room by a bunch of shadowy executives.
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steex
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PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 5:37 pm

Quoting cageyjames (Reply 21):
So we're going to shrink this airline until it is profitable. That works well.

Regardless of one's opinion, there is virtually no modern example of any two airlines in the US domestic market merging and maintaining the status quo on capacity in the merged hub network.

Just a few we all know well:
AA+TW = No more STL hub
DL+NW = No more MEM hub (drastically reduced CVG)
UA+CO = No more CLE hub (IAD seeing frequent reductions)
WN+FL = Drastic reductions at ATL
F9+YX = No more MKE (this one is a messy example, but still true)

Perhaps AA+US will not have the same result as those above, but considering airlines generally view mergers as a way to reduce both capacity and the number of competitors in the marketplace, I'm not sure that's the most realistic expectation.
 
wn676
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PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 5:41 pm

Quoting cageyjames (Reply 21):
So we're going to shrink this airline until it is profitable. That works well.

It worked great for US post-2008.
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727LOVER
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PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 5:55 pm

Quoting steex (Reply 19):
I call on "fanboys" of any airport to realize to realize said airport is not an extension of your personal being or member of your family

Same goes for airlines as well....fanboys ruin this site.

PHX and connectivity, this may be apples & oranges....but where's the connectivity in AUS for BA?
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
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atcsundevil
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PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 5:56 pm

Quoting BlatantEcho (Reply 5):
I think a lot of people, myself included, are expecting a significant amount of cuts to phx once the merger is complete.

It's hard to imagine AA wanting PHX to distract them from LAX.
that said, maybe a JAL or someone might do it.

I didn't think anyone went to the Phoenix area on purpose that wasn't from there.
Are there many tourists for a reason I don't grasp?

Maybe the Grand Canyon, but I don't know why someone from Asia would visit the area for fun.

Perhaps with Intel and apple and other companies getting subsidies from the government to expand, there will be more reasons for an Asia flight to happen?

--
As someone who has spent a decent amount of time in AZ, I'm always shocked by the urban sprawl and choking dirty dusty and hot climate.

I'm impressed people live there. Where does the water come from?

There's so much ignorance in this post that I honestly hope you're kidding.

I agree, PHX is still likely to see a downsize from the new AA. I've said this from the outset and I still believe it is inevitable, but only time will tell. I have also said for years that an NRT flight is possible but improbable -- again, time will tell. If it did come about, it wouldn't undercut LAX significantly and I don't think it would vice versa. I think that with the right sized aircraft, enough business traffic, and enough connecting feed, both flights could potentially co-exist.

As for people who went to Phoenix on purpose and all of these mysterious tourists you weren't aware off... You do know the Superbowl was here last month, right?? Over a million people came for that and about 600k for the Phoenix Open in the same weekend. Spring training is going on right now. The largest university in the US is here. Hundreds of thousands of tourists come year-round for conferences at resorts around the valley, to go to the Grand Canyon, see the numerous major sporting events, or for a place that has 80° temps eight months out of the year. Then there's snowbirds, but that's a whole different discussion.

As for the water thing, there's plenty of it...Phoenix hasn't had water restrictions in a decade.
 
wn676
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PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 6:00 pm

Quoting 727LOVER (Reply 25):

PHX and connectivity, this may be apples & oranges....but where's the connectivity in AUS for BA?

The majority is likely on the LHR end, much like PHX-LHR when they lost the HP feed.
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a380787
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PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 6:11 pm

Quoting atcsundevil (Reply 26):


As for people who went to Phoenix on purpose and all of these mysterious tourists you weren't aware off... You do know the Superbowl was here last month, right?? Over a million people came for that and about 600k for the Phoenix Open in the same weekend. Spring training is going on right now. The largest university in the US is here. Hundreds of thousands of tourists come year-round for conferences at resorts around the valley, to go to the Grand Canyon, see the numerous major sporting events, or for a place that has 80° temps eight months out of the year. Then there's snowbirds, but that's a whole different discussion.

Most of those are reasons for domestic and transborder travel, but says nothing about demand to/from East Asia to justify a NRT flight.

Grand Canyon can easily tagged on as an excursion from LAS, which is far more popular for Asian tourists than PHX, and a quick easy hop from SFO/LAX.

If AA has spare 787s and want to test another NRT flight, make it PHL/MIA before making it PHX.
 
alasizon
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PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 6:40 pm

Quoting atcsundevil (Reply 26):
I agree, PHX is still likely to see a downsize from the new AA. I've said this from the outset and I still believe it is inevitable, but only time will tell. I have also said for years that an NRT flight is possible but improbable -- again, time will tell. If it did come about, it wouldn't undercut LAX significantly and I don't think it would vice versa. I think that with the right sized aircraft, enough business traffic, and enough connecting feed, both flights could potentially co-exist.

What downsizing PHX will see is still to be determined, for all we know it will simply be a shift from our current Mainline to Regional ratio to a more reasonable one consistent with other hubs. We have already been seeing gates on the low Bs having lines for CRJ900s added. Let's face it, plenty of routes currently on a 319 or 320 would be equally served by 2-3x CR9s
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747megatop
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PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 6:53 pm

Quoting BlatantEcho (Reply 5):
Maybe the Grand Canyon,

Well, tourists would fly into Flagstaff then. Why Phoenix?
 
tommy767
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PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 6:58 pm

I don't see a reason why PHX-NRT wouldn't work with a 787 or even a 763. Would PHX-NRT exceed more O&D than DEN-NRT?
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MVAair
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RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:09 pm

Quoting steex (Reply 23):
Regardless of one's opinion, there is virtually no modern example of any two airlines in the US domestic market merging and maintaining the status quo on capacity in the merged hub network.

Because there was excess capacity then. Not so now. The fact that NK and F9 are growing in places like DFW, ORD and ATL is an indication that legacies have gone too far in their cuts
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:13 pm

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 31):
Would PHX-NRT exceed more O&D than DEN-NRT?

Theyre about the same last I looked.

The difference is the exclusive connections DEN offers. PHX doesnt have anything that can really put butts in seats that DFW or LAX dont currently have.

If AA was going to launch an NRT route, PHL is the biggest hole. PHL-NRT should be considered long before PHX-NRT.
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LAX772LR
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RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:14 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 3):
Will believe it when I see it. Possible, but I'm not holding my breath.

  

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 4):
AA most likely will be shrinking the PHX hub, not growing it.

  

Quoting MVAair (Reply 14):
espeailly top Mexico.

That's a shaky foundation to build/continue a hub on... because PHX is infested with WN, who could pounce on that such market at any point, and likely will.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
continental004
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RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:19 pm

I can't see AA fly this PHX-NRT; they barely fly LAX-Asia (only NRT and PVG), with all the (impressive) Asia growth ex-DFW. If any airline flies NRT-PHX, it will be JL.
 
chrisair
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RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:19 pm

Quoting BlatantEcho (Reply 5):
As someone who has spent a decent amount of time in AZ, I'm always shocked by the urban sprawl and choking dirty dusty and hot climate.

Oh please. How is the sprawl in PHX any different than LA, or that miserable mess of the country that stretches from Philly to Boston?

Quoting BlatantEcho (Reply 5):
I'm impressed people live there.

Please don't come here again.

Quoting steex (Reply 19):
I call on "fanboys" of any airport to realize to realize said airport is not an extension of your personal being or member of your family, and therefore it is unnecessary to take offense anytime someone suggests service levels may decrease there.

Thank you. Some people take their airport allegiances way too personally....

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 30):
Well, tourists would fly into Flagstaff then. Why Phoenix?

They can't get to Flag without flying through PHX.
 
commavia
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RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:22 pm

Quoting realsim (Reply 8):
From an AA point of view (and not PHX point of view), IMO PHL makes much more sense as a new non-stop route to NRT. Almost all the connections west of DFW that could be offered via PHX are already flown from LAX by AA, so PHX brings little from a network perspective. PHL, however, brings a lot of eastern cities that are not flown by AA neither from ORD nor JFK.

  

Precisely - in terms of connectivity, there is very little PHX appears to offer to/from NRT and/or Asia that isn't already available via LAX and/or DFW. And I agree - among AA hubs yet to be linked nonstop to NRT/Asia, PHL makes far more sense as it likely has a larger premium component to the market, and actually does offer unique connecting traffic flows that are not replicated by any other AA hub.

Quoting realsim (Reply 8):
That doesn't mean that I could not see a PHX-NRT flight, but if it is not launched by JL, AA has more important priorities. In fact, I think that NRT is not one of them (either from PHL, PHX or MIA), and that the main focus right now is at LAX-ICN/PEK/HKG/AKL.

Agreed - LAX-Asia seems like a higher growth priority than PHX-NRT.

Quoting MVAair (Reply 14):
How much more can AA grow in LAX.

A substantial amount in the coming years as more gates come online. AA has the potential soon to move most if not all of its international operations, and possible all of its widebody operations, to four TBIT gates, which is going to free up a substantial portion of capacity at T4, and the USAirways T6 gates are still not fully utilized.

Quoting MVAair (Reply 14):
Everyone is forgetting that AA has cut regional flying from LAX but not from PHX.

To my knowledge, the only "regional flying" AA has cut from LAX since the merger was announced is a single route - SBA. In that same time, though, AA has added multiple new routes out of LAX, including plenty that overfly PHX - such as ATL, PIT, IND, CMH, SAT and TPA, to name a few.

Quoting MVAair (Reply 14):
There is a fundamental misunderstanding on A.net concerning the AA/US merger. It wasnt a merger meant to shrink the two carriers. It was a merger meant to make AA large enough to compete with UA and DL.

I don't really think there's much of a "fundamental misunderstanding" on this. I agree that, in general, the industry is in a very different state today than it was with the last two mergers, and likely there is less need, or "low hanging fruit," to make major capacity reductions in this merger. Nonetheless, I do think it's inevitable that some level of rightsizing, and network optimization/rationalization, is inevitable - given the synergies and interactions among the new merged airline's hubs and given the combined airline's higher costs compared to pre-merger USAirways.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 16):
Connections to where? I can't imagine what is covered by PHX that isn't covered by multiple daily LAX/DFW nonstops...YUM/FLG/LGB?

  

Quoting wn676 (Reply 18):
SE Asia connections on the Tokyo end would be the more important factor IMO.

Okay, although if PHX is like plenty of other markets - including many that are far larger - those connections to Southeast Asia tend to be substantially lower-yielding given the greater VFR element of demand, the competition, and the generally greater price elasticity. I suspect that not a single U.S.-Asia route today - especially those operated by the U.S. carriers - relies solely or even mostly on connectivity to Southeast Asia for its profitability.

Quoting atcsundevil (Reply 26):
As for people who went to Phoenix on purpose and all of these mysterious tourists you weren't aware off... You do know the Superbowl was here last month, right?? Over a million people came for that and about 600k for the Phoenix Open in the same weekend. Spring training is going on right now. The largest university in the US is here. Hundreds of thousands of tourists come year-round for conferences at resorts around the valley, to go to the Grand Canyon, see the numerous major sporting events, or for a place that has 80° temps eight months out of the year. Then there's snowbirds, but that's a whole different discussion.

No question that PHX is a huge market but, as already said, this demand tends to be more leisure-oriented than many other similarly-sized markets in the U.S., and in any event isn't particularly Asia-driven. Do Asian tourists visit PHX and Arizona? Of course. Could you build a nonstop PHX-NRT flight - an in particular a profitable PHX-NRT flight - based on that traffic? I doubt it highly.

Quoting Alasizon (Reply 29):
What downsizing PHX will see is still to be determined, for all we know it will simply be a shift from our current Mainline to Regional ratio to a more reasonable one consistent with other hubs. We have already been seeing gates on the low Bs having lines for CRJ900s added. Let's face it, plenty of routes currently on a 319 or 320 would be equally served by 2-3x CR9s

  

I have long suspected that a substantial portion of the reduction in capacity PHX is - likely, in my view - set to see eventually will come in the form of downgauging of aircraft.
 
a380787
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RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:23 pm

Quoting continental004 (Reply 35):
If any airline flies NRT-PHX, it will be JL.

JL 787s are way too premium heavy to be optimal for routes like PHX. AA's (much) lower J and 9-across is definitely more suitable.
 
wn676
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RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:54 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 37):
Quoting wn676 (Reply 18):SE Asia connections on the Tokyo end would be the more important factor IMO.
Okay, although if PHX is like plenty of other markets - including many that are far larger - those connections to Southeast Asia tend to be substantially lower-yielding given the greater VFR element of demand, the competition, and the generally greater price elasticity. I suspect that not a single U.S.-Asia route today - especially those operated by the U.S. carriers - relies solely or even mostly on connectivity to Southeast Asia for its profitability.

Though I wasn't trying to get into yield and profitability, you're absolutely right. I was getting more at the emphasis on connections not being in PHX but on the other end. It speaks more to the unsustainable nature of such a flight. Like others have pointed out, it's useless to try and route NRT connections over PHX when you already have DFW and LAX, so they'd be left trying to chase other traffic. And as you said, it's not like PHX-SE Asia even a huge market in comparison to other gateways. Still, it's probably the only other traffic flow that would register a blip if a PHX-Asia flight was launched.
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continental004
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RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 8:00 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 38):

Quoting continental004 (Reply 35):
If any airline flies NRT-PHX, it will be JL.

JL 787s are way too premium heavy to be optimal for routes like PHX. AA's (much) lower J and 9-across is definitely more suitable.

If they work for SAN, a similar leisure-heavy market, they can work for PHX.
 
austwin
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RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 8:02 pm

Thanks for the sleuthing PHX787. I do have doubts that the presence of the AA and JL officials, as well as the Los Angeles Consul-General from Japan, mean anything at all. heh. Also, if I remember correctly the aircraft you mentioned were not designed to serve "long thin markets." heh #2.
 
Osubuckeyes
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RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 8:13 pm

Quoting Alasizon (Reply 29):
Let's face it, plenty of routes currently on a 319 or 320 would be equally served by 2-3x CR9s

Just out of curiosity what markets do you think those are? Most of US's top capacity markets are also top O&D markets from PHX.

Quoting commavia (Reply 37):
PHX - such as ATL, PIT, IND, CMH, SAT and TPA, to name a few.

Sure, they may overfly, but those are more about LAX O&D/market share than about getting rid of PHX IMO.
 
a380787
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RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 8:21 pm

Quoting continental004 (Reply 40):

If they work for SAN, a similar leisure-heavy market, they can work for PHX.

I recall SAN being a higher fare market than PHX, and not bombarded by LCCs/ULCCs at PHX+AZA.
 
777STL
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RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 8:22 pm

Quoting DiamondFlyer (Reply 9):
Sure, its hot, but it isn't humid, and that's what matters. Water comes from the rivers that have dams on them, to make large lakes. There are a couple around the PHX area.

People come here during August and cry, "Oh my god, it's a hot shithole!". The reality of the situation is it's absolutely gorgeous here 9 months out of the year.

Quoting MVAair (Reply 14):
Everyone is forgetting that AA has cut regional flying from LAX but not from PHX. Indicating they see a role for PHX.

And that's the nuance that everyone that loves to bash PHX tends to forget. AA is space constrained at LAX. They won't be replacing what PHX does there over night.

Quoting steex (Reply 19):
Generally speaking, even the people who predict an AA drawdown of some level at PHX recognize the demographics of the Phoenix area, they moreso believe that the airline will seek to reduce capacity somewhere and reducing a hub is a good way to do that. In AA's network, they believe PHX is the most likely hub for reductions.

While I agree with you about the whole taking this thing personally bit, I'd be remissed not to remind some of you that the Phoenix area has some of the quickest growing suburbs over 200k people in the entire country and AZ is the second fastest growing state by population, second only to NV.

Do I think PHX is going to get a NRT route? Not at all. Do I think PHX is this rotting wasteland that people on this website seem to think it is that's going to become the next STL or PIT? Not a chance in hell.

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 31):
I don't see a reason why PHX-NRT wouldn't work with a 787 or even a 763.

I don't think a 763 could make it, and especially not during the summer.
PHX based
 
jfk777
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RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 8:28 pm

Quoting BlatantEcho (Reply 5):
It's hard to imagine AA wanting PHX to distract them from LAX.

How would a Phoenix to NRT flight "distract" from LAX ? That like saying when Pan Am started flying from JFK to LHR that flying from Dulles to LHR would hurt the JFK to LHR flights. What does flying from city A have to do with a flight from city B ? Nada. AA has large operations at LAX and PHX and the two really don't have anything to do with each other.

Under that thinking the FAA and the DOT should never allow a flight to London outside of JFK, Can you imagine if your were a DelTa CEO in the 1970's and the government told ypu not to bother applying for Atlanta to London. Let go 20 years later, you can't fly from ATL to GRU because AA goes from Miami to GRU. No flights to Latin America for Delta, well we know DL has a full dance card to Latun America so this restrictive thinking is not the way it turned out.
 
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atcsundevil
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RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 8:34 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 28):
Most of those are reasons for domestic and transborder travel, but says nothing about demand to/from East Asia to justify a NRT flight.

I never said it did. I was responding to a previous poster about where tourists to Phoenix come from. I was not referring to the potential success or failure of the proposed NRT route.

Quoting commavia (Reply 37):
No question that PHX is a huge market but, as already said, this demand tends to be more leisure-oriented than many other similarly-sized markets in the U.S., and in any event isn't particularly Asia-driven. Do Asian tourists visit PHX and Arizona? Of course. Could you build a nonstop PHX-NRT flight - an in particular a profitable PHX-NRT flight - based on that traffic? I doubt it highly.

I am not arguing that point...I agree with you. See what I wrote above.
 
tommy767
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RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 8:35 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 33):
The difference is the exclusive connections DEN offers. PHX doesnt have anything that can really put butts in seats that DFW or LAX dont currently have.

Doesn't AA/US have more flights into PHX than DEN with UA? There is definitely more mainline at PHX, for starters.
"KEEP CLIMBING" -- DELTA
 
wn676
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RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 8:46 pm

Quoting 777stl (Reply 44):

And that's the nuance that everyone that loves to bash PHX tends to forget. AA is space constrained at LAX. They won't be replacing what PHX does there over night.

And they wouldn't really need to in LAX anyway. That's what they have DFW for. PHX certainly can play a role, but it won't be such a critical east-west connector like it was to the LUS network.
Tiny, unreadable text leaves ample room for interpretation.
 
Cloneof501
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RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 8:46 pm

There's 47 replies in this thread, and yet I haven't seen a single post listing the PDEW figure for PHX-NRT. I guess there's the facts, and then there's a.net.

I wish we could finally put the nail in the coffin that PHX is a market that has a large amount of O&D, not connecting passengers. Is there enough O&D for a NRT flight? Coming from someone who loves PHX, I don't think a NRT flight is going to happen yet. I could see NRT being added in the future if the Phoenix metro area continues to see the high growth in the number of Asians, but for now I don't think it's going to be a reality. Even if AA wanted to add this dot to their route map, I don't think they even have any WBs available. I'd imagine the 787s are going to be tied up with different, more pressing routes.

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