a380787
Posts: 4573
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:38 pm

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 8:49 pm

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 47):

Doesn't AA/US have more flights into PHX than DEN with UA? There is definitely more mainline at PHX, for starters.

More mainline, yes. More flights, nothing close. UA/DEN is a 430 flight hub. Last summer AA+US was barely over 300 at PHX :

Total = 308, 66.9% mainline (206 flt)

I'd presume it's roughly the same for summer 2015, give or take. In comparison, DL/SLC in summer '14 was :

Total = 264, 41.7% mainline (110 flt)

while UA/DEN in summer'14 was :

Total = 431, 31.8% mainline (137 flt)

On top of major coastal cities, UA/DEN's network fans out to most of the rockies, the southwest, and the Great Plains / Prairies. The network breadth is far higher than SLC or PHX.
 
wn676
Posts: 1720
Joined: Mon Jun 20, 2005 5:33 am

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 8:49 pm

Quoting Cloneof501 (Reply 49):
There's 47 replies in this thread, and yet I haven't seen a single post listing the PDEW figure for PHX-NRT.

The last number that I remember seeing on this site was ~26 PDEW. That was a few years ago...if someone has more recent data it would be good to see.

[Edited 2015-03-02 12:49:49]
Tiny, unreadable text leaves ample room for interpretation.
 
steex
Posts: 1434
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2007 8:45 am

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:07 pm

Quoting 777stl (Reply 44):
Do I think PHX is going to get a NRT route? Not at all. Do I think PHX is this rotting wasteland that people on this website seem to think it is that's going to become the next STL or PIT? Not a chance in hell.

I don't think it will become the next STL or PIT either, but it has a long way to fall before it would get there (and mind you, even if AA packed up shop almost entirely, PHX would still not be STL/PIT given the much larger WN presence).

However, I really don't know why people keep harping on this "rotting wasteland" idea - nobody ever uses that as an attack, but anytime someone attempts to delve into the market dynamics of Phoenix or mentions that PHX has a larger leisure element than many other large airports, the self-anointed defenders of the airport attribute that hyperbole into the perceived "attackers."
 
jayunited
Posts: 2393
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:09 pm

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 31):
I don't see a reason why PHX-NRT wouldn't work with a 787 or even a 763. Would PHX-NRT exceed more O&D than DEN-NRT?

You can't compare the 2 hubs they serve completely different purposes.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 33):
Theyre about the same last I looked.
The difference is the exclusive connections DEN offers. PHX doesnt have anything that can really put butts in seats that DFW or LAX dont currently have.

You are correct.

If you look at UA's DEN hub you will see a lot of connecting flight from the mountain region that connect only to DEN. Before the arrival of the 787 most people in that region had to fly first to DEN then either backtrack to ORD,IAH or if they didn't want to backtrack there was SFO and LAX, but no matter how you look at it you had to take multiple flights just to get to your NRT flight. So LAXdude1023 is correct although the O&D from DEN may be the same as PHX UA's DEN-NRT flight benefits a lot from connections something PHX doesn't have as a result of DFW and LAX.

But to be quite honest I don't see PHX-NRT happening any time soon I think PHL-NRT, or JFK-NRT (on AA metal) are of higher priority as well as returning ORD-NRT to daily nonstop service.
 
tommy767
Posts: 4658
Joined: Sat Aug 09, 2003 12:18 pm

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:28 pm

Quoting jayunited (Reply 53):
You can't compare the 2 hubs they serve completely different purposes.

How so? Last time I checked, UA keeps downgauging and outsourcing capacity at DEN. Both are East/West traffic flows as well.
"KEEP CLIMBING" -- DELTA
 
a380787
Posts: 4573
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:38 pm

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:57 pm

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 54):

How so? Last time I checked, UA keeps downgauging and outsourcing capacity at DEN. Both are East/West traffic flows as well.

UA at DEN is still 40% larger by departure, and offers much higher network breadth. It offers tons of small destinations in the entire mountain time zone completely unmatched by what PHX offers.

And being nearly perfectly in the middle by latitude, most east-west connections can be efficiently routed (unlike PHX, which is only optimized for SoCal)
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 5954
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:25 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 55):
UA at DEN is still 40% larger by departure, and offers much higher network breadth. It offers tons of small destinations in the entire mountain time zone completely unmatched by what PHX offers.

This.

Its about exclusive destinations. DEN has a lot of them. PHX has 3 or 4.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
hz747300
Posts: 2395
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 11:38 pm

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:55 pm

Whilst it would be nice to have an NRT flight, I'm not sure it is in the cards so soon. I would tend to agree that it would be more enticing to have public officials and corporate officials go on record, then I'd get a tingle in my leg.

Analyze what businesses are in PHX / AZ, and see if those correspond to Japan in the supply chain. The chip manufacturers are probably the best link. The Honeywell's and other avionics ones, not so much. I don't think Toyota still has its proving ground in the burbs anymore, which leaves mining. Mining, you can argue creates more ties to China than Japan.

Without business travel, it becomes harder and harder to support the flight financially. That leaves the Grand Canyon and tourism. Sure PHX can be a gateway to the Grand Canyon, but more than likely it would be Las Vegas. When people here in HK ask for a trip idea, I direct them to LA, then Vegas, and the Grand Canyon. Unless someone is a golfer, then I would say Scottsdale.

If this is something Sky Harbor really wants, then they should work with business leaders and Governor Ducey to open an AZ Chamber of Commerce in Tokyo, servicing Asia. They could also promote AZ as lower cost, skilled manufacturing center in the USofA too, since all those factories have been shuttered in the Casa Grande area and southern part of the valley. And whatever subsidy is on offer by the airport, should probably be bumped up a bit!

Quoting BlatantEcho (Reply 5):
I'm impressed people live there. Where does the water come from?

Snowmelt into the reservoirs, and an extensive canal system. I'm impressed too that it works, thankfully, the last two years have brought above average precipitation!

The sprawl is the same as any other western city which did not have to build "up" and could build "out". Being a valley it keeps the bad air from car pollution in a slightly brown cloud that sits on the city, it's quite neat to see if you are driving in from Superior to Apache Junction, you can see yourself descending into it.

Lastly, because of LAX and SFO, pretty much anywhere in Asia that counts is only one hop away, except Singapore (2 hops). And the first hop is not even that long. Without flow control the PHX-LAX flight can be as short as 45 minutes!
Keep on truckin'...
 
User avatar
SANFan
Posts: 5218
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:09 pm

Quoting continental004 (Reply 40):
If they work for SAN, a similar leisure-heavy market, they can work for PHX

I was waiting for this to be mentioned. (It always is. It seems to bother many in central Arizona that little ol' San Diego has something that Phoenix doesn't.)

And btw, you can substitute 'SJC', 'DEN' and 'PDX' for "SAN" in your statement. They also are smaller and have nonstops to Asia while PHX doesn't, and in your opinion, there's no particular reason for that?

SAN and PHX are dissimilar markets. SAN is a (coastal) Pacific Rim city with a good sized Asian population, a very large military presence, as well as a catchment area that includes a large chunk of population and businesses in Northern Mexico. A diverse combination of tourism, oceanography, technology industry, and medical research all offer attraction and commonality with Japan and other parts of Asia.

Most of those elements are not necessarily strongpoints of The Valley of the Sun.

SAN, I would guess, is supporting its Tokyo nonstop pretty much with O&D traffic as we are certainly not a domestic hub.

Much of the PHX debate here is based on the importance of Sky Harbor as a domestic (AA) hub -- some pro, some con. Perhaps when PHX can start discussing supporting a nonstop to Asia based on local (PHX) traffic, and connections to the rest of Asia (e.g. via Tokyo), the feasibility may be more correctly judged.

bb
 
User avatar
cageyjames
Posts: 672
Joined: Fri Nov 03, 2006 2:08 am

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:31 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 55):
UA at DEN is still 40% larger by departure, and offers much higher network breadth. It offers tons of small destinations in the entire mountain time zone completely unmatched by what PHX offers.

And being nearly perfectly in the middle by latitude, most east-west connections can be efficiently routed (unlike PHX, which is only optimized for SoCal)

Much of US domestic network was tied with UA in the codesharing. Since US left Star, I've noticed that the AA/US network is weak in the mountain/midwest compared to UA. It will take some time to either get DFW and PHX to add more intermountain destinations or US frequent flyers might have to stomach moving to UA.
 
jayunited
Posts: 2393
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:44 pm

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 54):
How so? Last time I checked, UA keeps downgauging and outsourcing capacity at DEN. Both are East/West traffic flows as well

So when a person disagrees with your statement you resort to bashing UA. If you want to bash UA by all means start a new thread but it will not change the fact that UA's hub in DEN does not serve the same purpose as AA's PHX hub and it never will because DFW covers a lot of the connections into/from the mountain region for AA.

I didn't say PHX would never have a nonstop flight to NRT all I said was in my opinion it will not happen soon because in my opinion PHL and perhaps JFK (on AA metal) would take priority over PHX-NRT.
 
MVAair
Posts: 298
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 5:59 pm

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 12:12 am

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 54):
How so? Last time I checked, UA keeps downgauging and outsourcing capacity at DEN. Both are East/West traffic flows as well.

UA's lack of commitment to DEN doesnt mean AA will have the same lack of commitment to PHX. In fact, doesnt UA shrinking DEN make PHX more profitable?

Quoting steex (Reply 52):
I don't think it will become the next STL or PIT either

PHX is nearly as big as those two combined. Plus no one can compare PHX to two old rust belt cities.

NRT-PHX is about 35 passengers per day each way. The same size as SLC. I think with a 787 it would work 5 days per week.
 
tommy767
Posts: 4658
Joined: Sat Aug 09, 2003 12:18 pm

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 12:16 am

Quoting jayunited (Reply 60):
So when a person disagrees with your statement you resort to bashing UA. If you want to bash UA by all means start a new thread but it will not change the fact that UA's hub in DEN does not serve the same purpose as AA's PHX hub and it never will because DFW covers a lot of the connections into/from the mountain region for AA.

I'm not bashing UA at all. I like UA at DEN, but let's face facts, there are a lot of outsourced Regional Jets flying in and out of that airport and quite a few midwest cities lost mainline frequencies since the merger as well.

US at PHX has a lot of mainline, which in terms of flow is quite healthy to possibly get an NRT flight going. Most of those DEN "unique" destinations are on ERJs anyway.

BTW, wasn't it Smisek who said DEN-NRT would have never happened if not for the 787? So much for confidence in the local market.

PHX & DEN are both rapidly expanding cities and can support a link to NRT in nearly the same fashion, IMHO.
"KEEP CLIMBING" -- DELTA
 
User avatar
seabosdca
Posts: 6573
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2007 8:33 am

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 12:24 am

Quoting jayunited (Reply 60):
because in my opinion PHL and perhaps JFK (on AA metal) would take priority over PHX-NRT.

   about PHL. If I had four 787s, and had to use them for those routes, I think I'd probably start 2x PHL-NRT before starting PHX-NRT. PHX is a big market and a big hub, and it's not going anywhere, but it's not the sort of market or hub that supports transpacific service.
 
777STL
Posts: 2770
Joined: Mon Dec 13, 2004 8:22 am

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 1:04 am

Quoting steex (Reply 52):
However, I really don't know why people keep harping on this "rotting wasteland" idea - nobody ever uses that as an attack, but anytime someone attempts to delve into the market dynamics of Phoenix or mentions that PHX has a larger leisure element than many other large airports, the self-anointed defenders of the airport attribute that hyperbole into the perceived "attackers."

Uhh, well, this reply is exactly what I was referencing:

Quoting BlatantEcho (Reply 5):
I didn't think anyone went to the Phoenix area on purpose that wasn't from there.
Are there many tourists for a reason I don't grasp?

Maybe the Grand Canyon, but I don't know why someone from Asia would visit the area for fun.

Perhaps with Intel and apple and other companies getting subsidies from the government to expand, there will be more reasons for an Asia flight to happen?

--
As someone who has spent a decent amount of time in AZ, I'm always shocked by the urban sprawl and choking dirty dusty and hot climate.

I'm impressed people live there. Where does the water come from?
PHX based
 
a380787
Posts: 4573
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:38 pm

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 1:13 am

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 62):

you really don't understand PHX then. PMUS had exactly ONE hub in pacific mountain and central time zones combined. A trillion mainline doesn't help when they're serving only a handful of destinations
 
tommy767
Posts: 4658
Joined: Sat Aug 09, 2003 12:18 pm

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 1:17 am

Quoting a380787 (Reply 65):
you really don't understand PHX then. PMUS had exactly ONE hub in pacific mountain and central time zones combined. A trillion mainline doesn't help when they're serving only a handful of destinations

Really? A major hub like PHX only has a "handful" of destinations? I'm curious, where did you pull that data up from?
"KEEP CLIMBING" -- DELTA
 
a380787
Posts: 4573
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:38 pm

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 1:39 am

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 66):

nothing that cant be served from DFW, sans some middle of nowhere Ville within Arizona. You probably can't name even 10 airports that PHX has but DEN or DFW doesnt. Sorry to burst your bubble - DEN is the king of mountain time zone

Despite being a 3m population metro, PHX has no service to South America, Asia, or anywhere Europe except LHR.
 
BlatantEcho
Posts: 2133
Joined: Wed Sep 27, 2000 10:11 am

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 2:28 am

Sooo, lots of talk, which is good, but little data.

I'm seeing 35PDEW from PHX-NRT, which is, uhm, not a lot.

I know lots of old people hang out in Arizona in the US winter because it is warm, but, are those people flying to Asia?
And are Asian traveling coming to Arizona in the same way they visit Hawaii?
(I think not)

Again, just trying to understand who is visiting Arizona, and why (aside from the Grand Canyon I guess).
Golfing?

35PDEW does not a flight make...
 
MVAair
Posts: 298
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 5:59 pm

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 2:35 am

Quoting BlatantEcho (Reply 68):
35PDEW does not a flight make...

With 50-100% stimulation plus hubs at both ends an a 787 it does. 5x weekly.
 
Maverick623
Posts: 4715
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2006 9:13 am

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 4:02 am

While I do appreciate the OP's enthusiasm, he has been claiming for close to 10 years now that NRT was right around the corner, based on conversations with "business leaders" (which always turn out to be friends) and "airline officials" (which, if they turn out to be anyone, are low-level airport employees who wouldn't have access to that information).

Quoting a380787 (Reply 67):
nothing that cant be served from DFW

There's plenty of route combinations that wouldn't work from DFW (at least as a replacement for PHX). Specifically, anything that originates within 500 miles of DFW and ends up west of the 111th meridian (and vice versa). LAX is far more of a (domestic) threat to PHX than DFW will ever be.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 67):
You probably can't name even 10 airports that PHX has but DEN or DFW doesnt. Sorry to burst your bubble - DEN is the king of mountain time zone

I consider that a moot point, since DEN isn't an AA hub.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 67):

Despite being a 3m population metro, PHX has no service to South America, Asia, or anywhere Europe except LHR.

The 2010 census listed the PHX metro area at 4.2 million people, and that was 5 years ago. Probably closer to 4.5 million now. And back when it was half the size, PHX supported LGW, DUS, and FRA.
"PHX is Phoenix, PDX is the other city" -777Way
 
hoons90
Posts: 3574
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2001 10:15 pm

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 4:11 am

Quoting BlatantEcho (Reply 68):
I know lots of old people hang out in Arizona in the US winter because it is warm, but, are those people flying to Asia?
And are Asian traveling coming to Arizona in the same way they visit Hawaii?
(I think not)

Again, just trying to understand who is visiting Arizona, and why (aside from the Grand Canyon I guess).
Golfing?

I was at the South Rim of the Grand Canyon a few weeks ago, and it was packed with tourists from Japan, Korea and China. The National Geographic Center at Tusayan even had a cafeteria with menus written in Chinese and Korean.

However, I think most of the tourists visit as part of a larger trip from Las Vegas or Los Angeles.
The biggest mistake made by most human beings: Listening to only half, understanding just a quarter and telling double.
 
User avatar
atcsundevil
Moderator
Posts: 3727
Joined: Sat Mar 20, 2010 12:22 pm

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 5:33 am

Quoting a380787 (Reply 67):
Despite being a 3m population metro, PHX has no service to South America, Asia, or anywhere Europe except LHR.

It's around 4.5 million. South America is unlikely, but I think another destination in Europe (like FRA) is possible and eventually a flight to NRT is possible. The only hindrance is the dynamics of the market and the geographical location compared to other major hubs, but an aircraft like the 787 makes routes like these possible. BA flies a daily 744 to LHR, so an international market certainly exists and has for a long time. LH would likely still be flying here if they had the right aircraft type to profitably serve it, because the economics of the 343 didn't work out.
 
Thomaas
Posts: 659
Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2014 10:52 pm

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 5:46 am

I think that the AA's 787-8 are perfect for the market with only 28 J seats although I think they are needed elsewhere before any expansion happens. I think that all of the ORD-Asia flight will be on 787 metal in a few years as AA has been bleeding money on those flights for years and the economics of the aircraft can only help. I also see PHL-NRT before PHX-NRT.
 
Thomaas
Posts: 659
Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2014 10:52 pm

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 5:48 am

Quoting atcsundevil (Reply 72):

Quoting a380787 (Reply 67):
Despite being a 3m population metro, PHX has no service to South America, Asia, or anywhere Europe except LHR.

It's around 4.5 million. South America is unlikely, but I think another destination in Europe (like FRA) is possible and eventually a flight to NRT is possible. The only hindrance is the dynamics of the market and the geographical location compared to other major hubs, but an aircraft like the 787 makes routes like these possible. BA flies a daily 744 to LHR, so an international market certainly exists and has for a long time. LH would likely still be flying here if they had the right aircraft type to profitably serve it, because the economics of the 343 didn't work out.

Their 333s could do it.
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 4441
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 6:27 am

The 787 seems like the perfect plane for this route. Connecting two one world hubs, makes sense to me.
 
Grummancat
Posts: 133
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2011 4:49 am

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 7:35 am

Quoting BlatantEcho (Reply 5):
I didn't think anyone went to the Phoenix area on purpose that wasn't from there.
Are there many tourists for a reason I don't grasp?

Maybe the Grand Canyon, but I don't know why someone from Asia would visit the area for fun.

We're actually in the middle of the tourist season right now. I'm wishing *I* had somewhere to run off to -_-.

Seriously though, yes, many many people seem to clog the streets in the winter time who are suspiciously absent when it's 100 degrees out.

As for Asian visitors, golf is HUGE. Especially in Japan. You could fly from Japan and play golf for a week for half the cost of belonging to one of those 'golfing clubs' in Japan. OK, maybe a QUARTER of the cost  

I want to add that I agree in the opinion that PHX-NRT would hardly be worth it when LAX is right next door.

[Edited 2015-03-02 23:36:52]
 
User avatar
atcsundevil
Moderator
Posts: 3727
Joined: Sat Mar 20, 2010 12:22 pm

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:07 am

Quoting Thomaas (Reply 74):
Their 333s could do it.

Of course, but could they do it profitably is the question. The 333 might be too much airplane, not to mention they might have a weight penalty in the summer just like the 343 did when LH operated here previously. If LH had 787s, I think the answer would be yes, that it could be done profitably and with the right sized aircraft. Same goes for the A350 economics wise, but the 359 might be too large. I think that if AA is considering NRT, they'd have to also be considering FRA, although FRA would be less appealing because of the lack of a hub feed on the other end, but that's a different discussion entirely.
 
realsim
Posts: 519
Joined: Wed Apr 07, 2010 11:19 pm

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 11:35 am

Quoting Alasizon (Reply 29):
What downsizing PHX will see is still to be determined, for all we know it will simply be a shift from our current Mainline to Regional ratio to a more reasonable one consistent with other hubs. We have already been seeing gates on the low Bs having lines for CRJ900s added. Let's face it, plenty of routes currently on a 319 or 320 would be equally served by 2-3x CR9s

That is what I've always thought about what the future of PHX would look like. However, there are at least 2 hurdles for that:

a) The lack of large RJs. AA has almost reached the maximum number of RJs they can have under the current scope clause (they can only order something like 20-30 more). At the end of this year, 66 more will be on order, but AA will still have 269 50 seaters, so assuming a lot of them will be used as replacements, the pending large RJs should be based at DFW, ORD and the NE (NYC, PHL and DCA).

b) The complicated moving of PHX mainline capacity somewhere else. If PHX was to be mainline reduced, I think that AA would just get rid of that mainline capacity, which would result in fewer mainline aircraft and few large RJs allowed (vicious circle).

For all the above reasons, at least in the short term, I don't AA will shrink PHX significantly. The fact that AA has ordered as many RJs as they are allowed to (with a little margin) implies that they do not plan to shrink their mainline fleet, and I don't think that the other hubs can absorb so many mainline flights displaced from PHX. The 7 new Mesa CR9s could be very well used to downgauge a few routes, but the way things look right now, IMO the future of PHX could be in a new 110 seater operated with the new mainline pilot Group 1 payscale, which is significantly cheaper than the Group 2, so E-JETS N2 or CS100.
 
bagoldex
Posts: 1027
Joined: Thu Jan 25, 2007 3:33 pm

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 11:47 am

The problem with Phoenix(and Miami) is that the almost-dead isn't a terribly high yielding demographic.
 
MVAair
Posts: 298
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 5:59 pm

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 2:50 pm

Quoting Alasizon (Reply 29):
What downsizing PHX will see is still to be determined, for all we know it will simply be a shift from our current Mainline to Regional ratio to a more reasonable one consistent with other hubs. We have already been seeing gates on the low Bs having lines for CRJ900s added. Let's face it, plenty of routes currently on a 319 or 320 would be equally served by 2-3x CR9s

The trend is the otherway. Giving up a 320 for 2-3 CR9s requires more regional pilots who dont exist. DL is moving more aggressively but AA is replacing RJs with mainline too.

Quoting bagoldex (Reply 79):
The problem with Phoenix(and Miami) is that the almost-dead isn't a terribly high yielding demographic.

Miami has good international yields.
 
MVAair
Posts: 298
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 5:59 pm

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 2:51 pm

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 75):
The 787 seems like the perfect plane for this route. Connecting two one world hubs, makes sense to me.

  

The thread should now be locked.
 
a380787
Posts: 4573
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:38 pm

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 2:59 pm

Quoting MVAair (Reply 81):
Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 75):
The 787 seems like the perfect plane for this route. Connecting two one world hubs, makes sense to me.


The thread should now be locked.

It should be locked because someone gave a Route Planning 101 answer without data such as loads and yields to back it up ?

There are tons of oneworld hub-to-hub that aren't connected : NRT/HND-DUS, MAD-KUL/HKG/NRT, DOH-SYD/LAX, GRU-ORD, CMB/AMM to most of the world .... what makes PHX-NRT so special ?
 
commavia
Posts: 11489
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:00 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 56):
Its about exclusive destinations. DEN has a lot of them. PHX has 3 or 4.

  

Quoting MVAair (Reply 61):
UA's lack of commitment to DEN doesnt mean AA will have the same lack of commitment to PHX.

United doesn't "lack" for "commitment" to DEN. United in recent years has simply optimized DEN for what it now is - a 3-hub airport (unsustainably so, in my view) where United now faces substantial competing capacity on most trunk routes but where United today actually has an even more complete dominance of regional feeder routes throughout the Rocky Mountain region, which remains the raison d'être for the entire hub.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 75):
Connecting two one world hubs, makes sense to me.

PHX is not now, nor has it ever been, a "world" hub. Setting aside Hawaii, PHX has precisely one scheduled nonstop flight that leaves North America.

Quoting realsim (Reply 78):
The complicated moving of PHX mainline capacity somewhere else. If PHX was to be mainline reduced, I think that AA would just get rid of that mainline capacity, which would result in fewer mainline aircraft and few large RJs allowed (vicious circle)

Not sure if the circle would be "vicious" or "virtuous," but in any event I have long believed that some level of mainline capacity now moving through PHX will eventually simply cease to exist altogether - and not be "moved" or "shifted" anywhere - because it will be rendered uneconomic at the merged airline's elevated cost levels.

Quoting bagoldex (Reply 79):
The problem with Phoenix(and Miami) is that the almost-dead isn't a terribly high yielding demographic.

Neither of these markets - and especially MIA - is catering to the "almost-dead." MIA is a significant commercial, cultural and political hub for the Americas, which is precisely why AA's operation there has grown so impressively in the last decade.
 
a380787
Posts: 4573
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:38 pm

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:10 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 83):

Neither of these markets - and especially MIA - is catering to the "almost-dead." MIA is a significant commercial, cultural and political hub for the Americas, which is precisely why AA's operation there has grown so impressively in the last decade.

Definitely a "political hub" ... the butterfly ballots at Miami-Dade and Broward sure decided the fate of the nation for the next 8 years

/s
 
MVAair
Posts: 298
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 5:59 pm

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:10 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 82):
It should be locked because someone gave a Route Planning 101 answer without data such as loads and yields to back it up ?

Data has been given to back it up and Route Planning 101 is still light years beyond most posts here.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 82):
NRT/HND-DUS, MAD-KUL/HKG/NRT, DOH-SYD/LAX, GRU-ORD,

These are all 787 or A350 possibilities except MAD-KUL (Two weaker members).

Quoting commavia (Reply 83):
PHX is not now, nor has it ever been, a "world" hub. Setting aside Hawaii, PHX has precisely one scheduled nonstop flight that leaves North America.

So what? That is a chicken or egg question. The fact that HP then US had their hub there and was a jr player in Star may have had something to do with it. Which is the cause and which is the effect?

MSP-AMS is a good example of what connecting two hubs can do. The PHX-East Asia market size is 128 Per day each way, not including stimulation, not including NRT-Beyond PHX and not including Beyond NRT-Beyond PHX. There is a market here for 787s 5x weekly.
 
Flighty
Posts: 9963
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 3:07 am

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:11 pm

PHX naturally supports mainline from several angles. High volume (high population, high flows to California). Low yield. Fairly extreme geographic isolation (high stage lengths). And WN competition, again all mainline, blunting potential RJ-friendly yield improvements.

This means that PHX is really a mainline market, not an RJ market.
 
a380787
Posts: 4573
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:38 pm

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:18 pm

Quoting MVAair (Reply 85):
Data has been given to back it up and Route Planning 101 is still light years beyond most posts here.

That 25-35 PDEW figure ? That's hardly data.

Both AA and JL's 787 configuration faces a dilemma - JL is very J heavy for a market like PHX, while AA is stuffing something like 220 seats, which is a lot to fill even against that 128 PHX-Asia figure you're quoting ...

and don't forget a sizable chunk of that 128 are loyal to Skyteam or Star, so you'll have to take a haircut regarding how many would realistically travel on such a nonstop service
 
MVAair
Posts: 298
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 5:59 pm

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:40 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 87):
which is a lot to fill even against that 128 PHX-Asia figure you're quoting ...

and don't forget a sizable chunk of that 128 are loyal to Skyteam or Star, so you'll have to take a haircut regarding how many would realistically travel on such a nonstop service

I feel like I am telling people to put water not Bronwdo on the crops and the little kid says "Water like in a toilet?? I never saw crops grow out of no toilet before"


That 128 will grow with new service. It also doesnt include Beyond PHX flows or double connects Beyond PHX to Beyond NRT, and yes in connecting two OneWorld hubs, there will a LOT of that traffic. It might constitute a plurality of all the traffic onboard as it does in markets like DEN-FRA.

So I am done with this. If you prefer to put Bronwdo on your crops, fine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Vw2CrY9Igs

[Edited 2015-03-03 07:43:24]
 
commavia
Posts: 11489
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:45 pm

Quoting MVAair (Reply 85):
So what? That is a chicken or egg question. The fact that HP then US had their hub there and was a jr player in Star may have had something to do with it. Which is the cause and which is the effect?

It's not a "chicken or egg question" - we know what the cause and the effect are. PHX is simply not a "global" hub, economically or in terms of air service. It just isn't. PHX is a big population center, certainly, and it has a robust local economy, certainly. But that economy just is not tied into global commerce and trade linkages the way that some other cities of similar size are. A not-insignificant portion of PHX's air service also skews more leisure-oriented, driven to a certain extent by inbound tourism and seasonal population changes, which also does pretty much nothing for global air service connectivity.

Quoting MVAair (Reply 85):
MSP-AMS is a good example of what connecting two hubs can do. The PHX-East Asia market size is 128 Per day each way, not including stimulation, not including NRT-Beyond PHX and not including Beyond NRT-Beyond PHX. There is a market here for 787s 5x weekly.

MSP actually is a fairly illustrative example of precisely the reason why PHX has been able to sustain so little longhaul air service.

MSP, despite having a metro area population (Census MSA, as of 2013) that is more than 21% smaller than PHX, actually has a metro economy (BEA GMP, as of 2014) that is more than 8% larger than PHX. In addition, the Globalization and World Cities (GaWC) assessments rank MSP as a Beta- city compared to PHX, classified as a lower Gamma+ city.
 
a380787
Posts: 4573
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:38 pm

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:50 pm

Quoting MVAair (Reply 88):

That 128 will grow with new service. It also doesnt include Beyond PHX flows or double connects Beyond PHX to Beyond NRT, and yes in connecting two OneWorld hubs, there will a LOT of that traffic. It might constitute a plurality of all the traffic onboard as it does in markets like DEN-FRA.

There's only so much it can grow when there are no natural business or tourism ties. You think there aren't enough golf courses in Asia they need to fly 12 hours to PHX for that ?

DEN-FRA is really about Mountain-Time zone (many of which are unique to DEN) to Europe (with a bit of Africa, ME, and India sprinkled into it). Other than pax actually bound for PHX, there are very few destinations that LAX+DFW cannot handle.

And you really should stop counting all the double-beyond "bridge" traffic of AAA-NRT-PHX-BBB. Those can be handled by ANY bridge flight out there.

Quoting MVAair (Reply 88):
So I am done with this. I

And the forum is done with you. Byeeeeee.
 
PHX787
Topic Author
Posts: 7892
Joined: Thu Mar 15, 2012 7:46 pm

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:56 pm

I couldn't go through everyone's comments, but the response to this thread is somewhat mind-boggling....

I like how a number of pro-PHX members sent me PMs and tweets too, love u guys   hahaha

I am not trying to start a rumor thread. Im simply relaying information- It's a matter of when and not if. How is that a rumor? i did not explicitly state any sort of start dates at all either.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 12):
Quoting phxa340 (Reply 11):

With that said I would be thrilled to see this flight come to reality. How would a 788 do in the summer when the runway pavement is 120 + degrees F ?

those 787 batteries can catch fire again /s

How long have you guys lived in PHX?
The temp rarely, if ever hits 120degrees. Plus, the weather in PHX is nearly perfect year round....those 120+ degree days should be treated the same way the extreme snowstorm that just cancelled 1000+ flights in DFW last week      

Quoting wn676 (Reply 13):
Snowbirds. There are *lots* of them here right now. And contrary to what you might interpret from driving around town, there are a fair number of them that actually elect to fly.

A lot of Asian snowbirds now too  
Quoting MVAair (Reply 14):
Yes, PHX does indeed have the demand plus connections, espeailly top Mexico.

  

Quoting steex (Reply 23):

Just a few we all know well:
AA+TW = No more STL hub
DL+NW = No more MEM hub (drastically reduced CVG)
UA+CO = No more CLE hub (IAD seeing frequent reductions)
WN+FL = Drastic reductions at ATL
F9+YX = No more MKE (this one is a messy example, but still true)

are you pretty sure you think PHX, the 6th largest city in the USA, and the second fastest growing metro area in the USA after Vegas, will go down this same road?
STL is stagnating as a city.
MEM is losing population, as is CVG.
CLE is a trash pit.
ATL is a huge hub for DL. WN doesn't like to compete with DL.
MKE is a very very small town.

As I keep saying- PHX is growing and growing exponentially. We aren't just some desert wasteland.

Quoting 727LOVER (Reply 25):
PHX and connectivity, this may be apples & oranges....but where's the connectivity in AUS for BA?

Oh ho ho ho! You prove my point again! The BA flight at PHX pre-US/AA merger????
Follow me on twitter: www.twitter.com/phx787
 
GRUIAD
Posts: 85
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2010 8:50 pm

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:57 pm

To me PHX biggest issue is overcoming the uncertainty of the AA HUB LONG-term. JL would be reticent to add a route to PHX without getting a better understanding of AA's plans long term. One thing PHX adds to equation is some Mexico flights which are less circuitous with connections under one roof, but apart from that there is not much more.

At conferences I have attended where Doug Parker was a speaker (as chief of USAirways), he often complained about PHX yields so not sure the fact that he now heads AA is an advantage to PHX.
 
a380787
Posts: 4573
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:38 pm

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 4:01 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 91):
are you pretty sure you think PHX, the 6th largest city in the USA, and the second fastest growing metro area in the USA after Vegas, will go down this same road?

PHX is the 14th largest metro measured by PSA... let's stop using "cities" as a measurement since Houston is #4 on that list and we know how false that is

just to illustrate how useless that list is ... San Antonio TX is the 7th largest city on that list, higher than Dallas (#9) or San Francisco (#14)
 
PHX787
Topic Author
Posts: 7892
Joined: Thu Mar 15, 2012 7:46 pm

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 4:06 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 93):
PHX is the 14th largest metro measured by PSA... let's stop using "cities" as a measurement since Houston is #4 on that list and we know how false that is

Doesnt make much of a difference to me. Still a large area and again, the largest airport and busiest airport without Asia service.

And i really like how you skipped over the most important information I'm giving--------

SECOND FASTEST GROWING City.

This is why I;m not on this forum so much anymore. People think they know what they're talking about half the time  
Follow me on twitter: www.twitter.com/phx787
 
a380787
Posts: 4573
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:38 pm

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 4:09 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 94):


And i really like how you skipped over the most important information I'm giving--------

SECOND FASTEST GROWING City.

This is why I;m not on this forum so much anymore. People think they know what they're talking about half the time

Because you're still stuck on using the wrong metric of "city"

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_primary_statistical_areas_of_the_United_States

Out of large/medium metros, MIA SLC MCO DEN DAL HOU RDU and AUS all grew even faster.
 
ckfred
Posts: 5166
Joined: Wed Apr 25, 2001 12:50 pm

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 4:25 pm

Quoting steex (Reply 23):
AA+TW = No more STL hub
DL+NW = No more MEM hub (drastically reduced CVG)
UA+CO = No more CLE hub (IAD seeing frequent reductions)
WN+FL = Drastic reductions at ATL
F9+YX = No more MKE (this one is a messy example, but still true)

TWA should never have made STL a hub. The St. Louis metro area simply doesn't have enough business to support a hub like DFW or ORD. Carl Icahn decided he didn't want to fight AA and UA at ORD and moved TWA to STL, then bought Ozark.

If DL and NW hadn't merged, MEM would still have slowly disappeared. MEM started out as a Southern hub. Then it became a Republic hub. Then, it became a NW hub. Frankly, the only successful hubs in the Southeast have been ATL and CLT.

CO's hub at CLE had been slowly dwindling before the merger, as the focus was on IAH and EWR. Cleveland is another large city that simply doesn't have the business to support a hub.

Now, WN's reductions at ATL is probably the an instance where one airline bought another with the idea of downsizing a hub. WN knows that it isn't about to run DL out of ATL, the way it ran US out of BWI, or the way it ran US and AA out of the north-south traffic on the West Coast.

Despite AA closing STL as a hub, how much has WN grown at STL? I would have thought by now, WN would have starting taking gates on D.

That all said, the Phoenix metro area isn't the leisure and retirement destination that it was in the 60s and 70s. My wife used to go to her former employer's Scottsdale office a lot, including during the summer. She was AAdvantage Gold on AA and never got an upgrade, because there were so many Ex. Plat. and Plat flyers on the route (ORD-PHX). I have friends in New York who travel to Phoenix for business, including the summer.

My wife used to fly to MCO and FLL during the summer, and there were far more leisure flyers going to central and south Florida in the summer than Phoenix.

Phoenix is a growing metro area, unlike Cleveland and St. Louis.

This isn't to say that the combined AA/US won't do some right-sizing. But, LAX doesn't have a lot of room for additonal flights. So, LAX is probably going to be like JFK, focusing on the O&D traffic, while PHX and PHL will handle more connecting traffic.
 
Osubuckeyes
Posts: 1837
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2004 10:05 am

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 4:35 pm

Will PHX be a global international hub? No. Will PHX ever see a NRT flight? Yes, at some point they will. Though, I can honestly say that I think we will see LH back in PHX before we see NRT. Will PHX remain an AA hub? The same arguments continue to be made on both sides, and really very little has changed to support either side. The cancellation of LAX-SBA and the addition of PHX-CLE are the only actions AA has made that one can maybe read into.
 
bagoldex
Posts: 1027
Joined: Thu Jan 25, 2007 3:33 pm

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 4:46 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 83):
Neither of these markets - and especially MIA - is catering to the "almost-dead." MIA is a significant commercial, cultural and political hub for the Americas.

It's a fun place to party a few times a year but to actually live there would be far more reminiscent of a Golden Girls episode than the promotional video for Ultra.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14176
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

RE: PHX, JL, AA Officials: PHX-NRT Flight Not If But When

Tue Mar 03, 2015 4:49 pm

Quoting osubuckeyes (Reply 97):
The cancellation of LAX-SBA and the addition of PHX-CLE are the only actions AA has made that one can maybe read into.

And I'd argue neither tells us much. LAX-SBA has zero O&D. The gates are better used other ways. PHX-CLE is a response to UA's cuts at CLE. If UA cuts LAX-CLE, AA will be all over it.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos