Emirates Eyes 50 To 70 A350 Or B787

ojas · Thu Mar 05, 2015 4:49 pm

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-emi...-50-70-a350-or-787-aircraft-2015-3

Curious to know what versions would they be interested in. They might go for something that can replace the A332.

Cipango · Thu Mar 05, 2015 4:54 pm

It would make a good aircraft to begin routes or to sustain smaller thinner routes.

RJ321 · Thu Mar 05, 2015 4:58 pm

I did not get why did they cancel the A350 order in the first place last year.......

Quoting Cipango (Reply 1):

Exactly, which is the same purpose of the A330s they are currently operating

phxa340 · Thu Mar 05, 2015 5:04 pm

I am curious to know if EK is going to leverage a 70 unit A350 order to get Airbus' commitment to the A380neo.

While I believe the 78J is perfect for EKs regional ops ... I really see EK and Airbus coming to an agreement for a massive A380neo/350 order.

S75752 · Thu Mar 05, 2015 5:09 pm

I could see them bringing back the A350 order if Airbus solidifies the 359 Long range variant. Otherwise, range may be lacking, unless it's just a regional 330 replacement.

As much as I dislike the 787 9-Abreast, EK operates 10 abreast 777's anyways so I guess it's all the same. On that note, I think the 789 would fit in quite nicely with their ULH fleet, and would allow them to stick their noses in to even more longhaul destinations that the 77W and 77L might be excessive for. I wonder if there are any destinations left for that which they haven't tapped already!

Eh, with EK, I wouldn't be surprised if they went for both.

RJ321 · Thu Mar 05, 2015 5:10 pm

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 3):

If your speculation is true (it does make sense btw) why did EK cancel the A350 order earlier ?

wolbo · Thu Mar 05, 2015 5:13 pm

Quoting RJ321 (Reply 5):
If your speculation is true (it does make sense btw) why did EK cancel the A350 order earlier ?

Perhaps to create a condition in which leverage can be applied?

RJ321 · Thu Mar 05, 2015 5:14 pm

Quoting S75752 (Reply 4):
fit in quite nicely with their ULH fleet

EK deploys the 772LR for ULH flights/destinations (that are not yielding much load factors) otherwise, the A380 is deployed for these routes.

adamh8297 · Thu Mar 05, 2015 5:15 pm

Quoting Cipango (Reply 1):

Or increase frequency of low to medium routes a la BOS/IAD/SEA even though their manifest destiny appears to be A380 to everywhere in the USA.

phxa340 · Thu Mar 05, 2015 5:17 pm

Quoting wolbo (Reply 6):

, while I am not sure of the reasons why they cancelled their original order, there must have been some very detailed passionate dialogue going on. EK is smart and I am sure they have a plan - now we have to wait and see if Airbus and Boeing will oblige to their plan.

airbazar · Thu Mar 05, 2015 5:21 pm

Quoting RJ321 (Reply 5):
If your speculation is true (it does make sense btw) why did EK cancel the A350 order earlier ?

I always thought that EK would need a smaller aircraft and was shocker when they canceled the A350.
It has become clear that they are abusing the 77W on routes where it is too much capacity and if they want to continue to expand their network of secondary cities I think they will need smaller long haul aircraft.

EPA001 · Thu Mar 05, 2015 5:24 pm

Quoting RJ321 (Reply 2):
I did not get why did they cancel the A350 order in the first place last year.......

Many of us don't understand that. But EK must have had their reasons. Although I do not believe they were directly related to the aircraft's characteristics. So now there is another chance for Boeing and Airbus to win a significant aircraft order from EK.

Boeing778X · Thu Mar 05, 2015 5:27 pm

Wonder if the 787-9 and -10 would fit.

PlanesNTrains · Thu Mar 05, 2015 5:35 pm

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 3):
I really see EK and Airbus coming to an agreement for a massive A380neo/350 order.

I can't see why that wouldn't be a perfect fit for them. I wonder if the A350 is being leveraged in some way behind the scenes for better access in Europe? I'll admit to not keeping up on things in that regard but clearly EK needs the EU's support more than the need the US's support.

Having said that, if they go A350, I won't be one of the people trumpeting that as the reason for the order. Clearly it's got all the things EK would want, with the possible exception of it being a bit much if all they want is a more "regional" (in EK parlance) frame.

-Dave

BlueSky1976 · Thu Mar 05, 2015 5:35 pm

I have a feeling 787-10 will win this one. Emirates always wanted 300-seater for their "regional" routes and this frame suits the requirement best.

PlanesNTrains · Thu Mar 05, 2015 5:54 pm

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 14):
I have a feeling 787-10 will win this one. Emirates always wanted 300-seater for their "regional" routes and this frame suits the requirement best.

Ya, but then every five years their requirements seem to get bigger. With the 787-10, there's nowhere to grow to in size - the next step up for them will be the 777X. With the A359/A3510, they at least have a potential for an A3511, but even if not the A350-1000 might offer them a better bridge between the 359 and the 777 than the 787-10 would?

Quien sabe?

-Dave

747megatop · Thu Mar 05, 2015 6:04 pm

Quoting ojas (Thread starter):
Curious to know what versions would they be interested in.

I am even more curious to see where they would deploy these to. Do they intend to start routes such as DXB-DIA;DXB-STL;DXB-PHX;DXB-PDX;DXB-SAN with these? These are examples of thin routes that i can think of where they would want to deploy the 787 but would be too much plane if they used the T7 or the whale jet.

moo · Thu Mar 05, 2015 6:06 pm

Quoting RJ321 (Reply 2):
I did not get why did they cancel the A350 order in the first place last year.......

Probably something as mundane as they saw a better opportunity further down the road - buying aircraft isn't like popping into a car dealership, signing on the dotted line and walking away with a car, its a heck of a lot more personal than that. Basically every aircraft purchased is a bespoke deal, with every nut, bolt, support agreement and date scrutinised and individually signed for. Emirates probably had an internal review and thought "this deal isn't good enough for us any more" and chose to back out of it rather than renegotiate (who knows, perhaps they tried to renegotiate it first and didn't get the terms they felt were acceptable).

Repurchasing further down the road opens up options for a better deal - economies are stronger, so financing deals are potentially better, while they won't be at a disadvantage with Airbus as Airbus will still want them as a customer for that product.

When we are talking billion dollar deals, there is nothing odd about dropping it, walking away and coming back another day on your own terms.

JoeCanuck · Thu Mar 05, 2015 6:13 pm

I think this is going to be a real low down, dirty, hair pulling, ear biting, purse swinging, knife fight between Boeing and Airbus.

It should be fun to watch.

enilria · Thu Mar 05, 2015 6:37 pm

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 18):

I think this is going to be a real low down, dirty, hair pulling, ear biting, purse swinging, knife fight between Boeing and Airbus.

It should be fun to watch.

I suspect this topic will come up during Tim Cook's upcoming visit to the USA to talk about Open Skies. I'm sure this is a chit.

Stitch · Thu Mar 05, 2015 6:42 pm

I'll be surprised if they order the A350 or the 787, as I believe they'll take more 777Xs to replace their A330s, A340s and 772s. Yes, they're huge capacity up-gauges, but I believe EK can develop the traffic on those current routes to support a 777X.

RJ321 · Thu Mar 05, 2015 6:48 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 20):

Many routes yield lower load factors making the utilization of a 777 not feasible, hence, the need of an A330 replacement.

Stitch · Thu Mar 05, 2015 6:55 pm

Quoting RJ321 (Reply 21):
Many routes yield lower load factors making the utilization of a 777 not feasible, hence, the need of an A330 replacement.

And yet EK cancelled their MoU for the A330-300 and cancelled their A350 order, which either the A350-900 or A350-1000 model would have made perfect sense as a replacement for those airframes. Meanwhile, they add 777-300ERs and A380-800s by the dozen year after year.

Tim Clark once said he had no need of a plane smaller than 300 seats. I now believe they have no need for a plane smaller than 350 seats.

The only plane smaller than a 777X that I see feasible would be the 787-10 as it would have the best mix of capacity and operating costs for regional (10 hour or less) missions, but they fly 427-seat two-class 777-300s and 777-300ERs on those missions now, as well, and so far they have only announced a two-class (440 seat) configuration for the 777-9, which sounds to me like they'll be used on those missions, as will the two-class 617-seat A380-800.

Standardizing on a 777X and A380 fleet will give them maximum operational efficiency and flexibility, IMO.

PW100 · Thu Mar 05, 2015 8:11 pm

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 18):
I think this is going to be a real low down, dirty, hair pulling, ear biting, purse swinging, knife fight between Boeing and Airbus.

Wonder if the A380NEO would turn out to be the gun in this knife fight . . .

speedbored · Thu Mar 05, 2015 8:20 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 22):
Standardizing on a 777X and A380 fleet will give them maximum operational efficiency and flexibility, IMO.

While they are based at DXB, I would totally agree. But once DWC comes online, EK becomes far less slot restricted.

EK has now reached critical mass in terms of the numbers of destinations they offer so I can see the additional slots that DWC will provide allowing their current business model, of offering 1-stop connections to primary and secondary destinations worldwide, to be extended to include tertiary destinations. i.e. destinations which may not have enough traffic to fill a 779 or 380 but which could support a 787 or 350.

JoeCanuck · Thu Mar 05, 2015 8:39 pm

Quoting PW100 (Reply 23):

I suspect not. I think Airbus is more likely to just make EK a killer offer for A350's. EK will probably buy A380's regardless of what happens.

Gazdon121 · Thu Mar 05, 2015 8:44 pm

Quoting S75752 (Reply 4):

STN

dubaiamman243 · Thu Mar 05, 2015 8:54 pm

So I think we have to wait for Dubai Airshow for the announcement?

speedbored · Thu Mar 05, 2015 8:55 pm

Quoting PW100 (Reply 23):
Wonder if the A380NEO would turn out to be the gun in this knife fight . . .

I suspect that, depending on which direction the current "subsidies" argument takes, it may prove to have a significant impact on this order too.

scbriml · Thu Mar 05, 2015 8:56 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 22):
The only plane smaller than a 777X that I see feasible would be the 787-10 as it would have the best mix of capacity and operating costs for regional (10 hour or less) missions

The thing is, I don't see that EK considers anything much above 4-5 hours as 'regional'. I wouldn't consider DXB to Europe as a 'regional' flight, yet most of those are under seven hours.

After they cancelled their A350s, I was convinced they only saw a future fleet of A380s and 777X. If things have changed and they now see the need for a smaller plane, I agree that the 787-10 would seem to be their best option. But it may be that Airbus can put together a combined A380neo/A350 package for them. We'll probably fond out in November.

wingman · Thu Mar 05, 2015 9:01 pm

Quoting wolbo (Reply 6):
Perhaps to create a condition in which leverage can be applied?

I think this may turn out to be the most prescient of comments. I really would have to hand it to Clark and probably elevate him to instant Hall of Fame status pulling a stunt like that on Leahy, who is himself a master chessman. Canceling those 350s knowing all along that he'd be back someday to use them as the key leveraging point to get the 380NEO, in itself the the one plane to rule them all and ground 5-10 key competitors into dust.

The man is thinking moves 3-5-10 years ahead of everyone else and has the good fortune of running an airline so well he doesn't have to worry about the day to day stuff. I almost feel like he just sits atop the Khalifa staring at 3D world maps all day...just plotting chaos and mayhem.

sunrisevalley · Thu Mar 05, 2015 9:05 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 22):
I now believe they have no need for a plane smaller than 350 seats.

which they could have with the 787-10 in a slightly more dense layout than the 323 seat standard. Assuming ~ 139t DOW payload for ~10hrs would be ~48t. 10hrs from DXB takes in all of Europe and Asia down to about Indonesia. A pretty large chunk of territory.

Beatyair · Thu Mar 05, 2015 9:11 pm

Make sense for them to get a nice regional aircraft. They seam to use the 777 like others use a 737.

BaconButty · Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:04 pm

My understanding, back from when they cancelled the A350-1000 order, was that their current mid/long haul operations are going to be standardised on 77W/9 and A380's - however there was going to be a new sub fleet for regional wide body feeder routes, the competition iirc being between the larger A350 and 787 variants (i.e. they might reorder a350-1000). But they still had to analyse the requirements for what will be effectively a new quasi-airline. Hence it isn't a case of EK misjudging their minimum aircraft size, but rather moving into markets that had been previously served with FZ narrow bodies. As such I would have thought the 787-10 was the obvious choice. I could be remembering it all wrong though.

Edit: I was partially thinking of this: http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...te-a350-alongside-787-next-404005/
also

Quote:
Mr Clark said these two aircraft would be the principal jets in Emirates’ fleet, but said there was room for another carrying between 250 and 300 passengers on regional routes – hence the carrier’s plan to consider the Dreamliner and re-examine the A350.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7728d6c8-f...cd-00144feab7de.html#ixzz3TYLbbcvZ

[Edited 2015-03-05 14:23:16]

[Edited 2015-03-05 14:29:57]

seabosdca · Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:09 pm

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 31):
which they could have with the 787-10 in a slightly more dense layout than the 323 seat standard. Assuming ~ 139t DOW payload for ~10hrs would be ~48t. 10hrs from DXB takes in all of Europe and Asia down to about Indonesia. A pretty large chunk of territory.

A 777-9X in that sort of configuration is going to have a very large number of seats. It does seem to me that even their "big aircraft only" model leaves room for something smaller than a 777-9X for regional use. The 787-10 seems like a better choice than the A350-900 for high-density regional use given the additional seats and lighter weight.

Confuscius · Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:14 pm

Quoting Enilria (Reply 19):
I suspect this topic will come up during Tim Cook's upcoming visit to the USA to talk about Open Skies.

I don't think Apple is interested in Open Skies treaty.

airbazar · Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:18 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 22):
Tim Clark once said he had no need of a plane smaller than 300 seats.

Wouldn't put it past EK to squeeze 300+ seats in an A359

MVAair · Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:40 pm

And therein lies the conflict. ME3s are costing US jobs in the airline industry but are helping create jobs at Boeing

seabosdca · Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:46 pm

Quoting MVAair (Reply 37):
And therein lies the conflict. ME3s are costing US jobs in the airline industry but are helping create jobs at Boeing

Funny how the US airlines' Stuerm und Drang (some of which is justified, some of which is not) gives EK an additional incentive to order from a US airframe maker.

enzo011 · Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:46 pm

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 31):
which they could have with the 787-10 in a slightly more dense layout than the 323 seat standard. Assuming ~ 139t DOW payload for ~10hrs would be ~48t. 10hrs from DXB takes in all of Europe and Asia down to about Indonesia. A pretty large chunk of territory.

Does Boeing use their standard 60's era configuration for the 787 as well?

flyabr · Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:54 pm

Any chance EK would look at the A339??

Clipper101 · Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:56 pm

The subject of which variant would it be if Emirates decided for the B787 was discussed previously on this thread:

EK Prefer 787 Over A350 (by UAEflyer Aug 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)#71

and all bits were on -10.

The following article:

http://www.businesstraveller.asia/as...als-information-regarding-a350-can

was the source of the debate in above thread in its Arabic version in Al Khaleej newspaper article:

Quote:

However, Adel Ahmad Al Redha revealed that in the event that Emirates did choose to add a new aircraft model to its fleet, the airline currently favours Boeing’s B787 Dreamliner over the A350.

This is a particularly surprising announcement from the Gulf carrier, as president Tim Clark was previously reported by Bloomberg as stating that even the stretched version of the B787 could lack the capacity to satisfy the airline’s needs.
“We’ll certainly study the B787-10, but it could be a tad small for us,” said Clark at last year’s Paris Air Show.

However, he did admit that the decision to commit to the A350 took place prior to the reveal of the B787-10. Therefore, the airline appears to have shifted its perspective since.

“In the days when we placed the A350 order, the Dreamliner was too small,” Clark said. “The B787-10 wasn’t launched and the -8 and -9 were no good for us.”

Un-quote.

[Edited 2015-03-05 15:02:23]

[Edited 2015-03-05 15:05:24]

TN486 · Thu Mar 05, 2015 11:12 pm

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 18):
I think this is going to be a real low down, dirty, hair pulling, ear biting, purse swinging, knife fight between Boeing and Airbus.

It should be fun to watch.

Oh Yeah, ain't we going to love it.

tortugamon · Thu Mar 05, 2015 11:26 pm

Quoting Clipper101 (Reply 41):

A great post. My sentiments exactly. It's really the only logic I have heard that fits with the cancelation of the A350 order.

A lighter aircraft with more seats and more cargo makes the 787-10 pretty compelling vs the A359 IF you don't need the range. Freeing up the A380s for the long haul and mega city work and the 777xs for long haul frequency work.

tortugamon

Clipper101 · Thu Mar 05, 2015 11:51 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 43):
A lighter aircraft with more seats and more cargo makes the 787-10 pretty compelling vs the A359 IF you don't need the range. Freeing up the A380s for the long haul and mega city work and the 777xs for long haul frequency work.

I guess the aim is to find a future aircraft covering their network on the regional/Middle Eastern/African routes

Boeing778X · Fri Mar 06, 2015 12:01 am

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 15):
With the A359/A3510, they at least have a potential for an A3511

Nope

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 14):
I have a feeling 787-10 will win this one. Emirates always wanted 300-seater for their "regional" routes and this frame suits the requirement best.

I have a feeling it will too. Plus, it will maintain a little commonality with current 777s and the 777X.

Plus, I'm under the impression the 787-10 has operating economics that are second to none

EK Fleet

A380-800neo(?)
A380-800
777-9
777-300ER
777-8
777-200LR
787-10

I think 50-70 787-10s might just be what they require. The A350 is not needed at EK.

Clipper101 · Fri Mar 06, 2015 1:10 am

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 15):
a potential for an A3511

In reference to a Bloomberg interview with Airbus chief last January, there is no A3511

[Edited 2015-03-05 17:12:53]

PlanesNTrains · Fri Mar 06, 2015 1:28 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 43):
A lighter aircraft with more seats and more cargo makes the 787-10 pretty compelling vs the A359 IF you don't need the range.

And that's a big "IF". For EK, range and size seem to have been the paramount considerations, and the 787-10 will be limited to what it is. As long as they are ok with that, it's all good.

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 45):
Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 15):
With the A359/A3510, they at least have a potential for an A3511

Nope

Quoting Clipper101 (Reply 46):
In reference to a Bloomberg interview with Airbus chief last January, there is no A3511

I understand, but I prefer to keep my mind open to a potential stretch. There was a thread about 18 months ago discussing it and while there was no clear path for the plane, there were plenty of people on here who felt it was doable. Yes, JL said "no". KarelXWB replied "Salesman respond to the wind" or some such, I think implying that that can change if the market changes.

In that same thread, some very respected members here killed the chances of an A330neo. What a difference a year makes.

-Dave

BA0197 · Fri Mar 06, 2015 1:42 am

Being unable to keep up with EK Fleet orders, could someone tell me what they have on order? It just seems like so many new planes!

enilria · Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:33 am

Let me tell you what this is about...

Delta: $446,000 in political contributions last year
https://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/lookup2.php?strID=C00104802

Boeing: $4.1 million political contributions last year
https://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/lookup2.php?strID=C00142711

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