EK Look At Placing An Order For Up To 200 A380NEO

chiad · Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:43 pm

Reuters reports that EK said it would look at placing an order for up to 200 A380neo jets to replace its current fleet and drive further expansion.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...ates-airline-idUSKBN0M10UA20150305

With such a card from Emirates I don't think Airbus can "afford" not to do the NEO.
It could all be "coincidents", but I wonder if

Leahy: A380 Is Here To Stay (by A342 Mar 5 2015 in Civil Aviation)

and

Emirates Eyes 50 To 70 A350 Or B787 (by ojas Mar 5 2015 in Civil Aviation)

may be connected in the biggest deal that the airline industry has ever seen.

SonomaFlyer · Thu Mar 05, 2015 11:09 pm

If in fact they are willing to buy that many NEOs, Airbus will respond and make it happen. Much of the improvement would be in the engines with some additional airframe tweaks as discussed before.

I think the big question is whether anyone other than EK and perhaps a few for the other M3 would buy the plane?

Btblue · Thu Mar 05, 2015 11:17 pm

Would we likely see these new birds with a 3-5-3 interior in economy? I'm sure I read somewhere as part of the NEO product the cabin floor could be raised to utilise the extra cabin width.

thekorean · Thu Mar 05, 2015 11:34 pm

Are they gonna put A380 on EVERY ROUTE?

Sheesh.

Sooner787 · Thu Mar 05, 2015 11:43 pm

Quoting thekorean (Reply 3):
Are they gonna put A380 on EVERY ROUTE?

Sheesh.

I hear Warren Buffett wants EK to start nonstop flights from OMA - DXB duck

[Edited 2015-03-05 15:43:51]

BD338 · Thu Mar 05, 2015 11:49 pm

Quoting chiad (Thread starter):
Reuters reports that EK said it would look at placing an order for up to 200 A380neo jet

Wow! How is it that EK is the only airline that can seemingly make the A380 work in large numbers? BA had ( I believe) the worlds largest 747 fleet at some point but can't even begin to consider replacing/upgrading anywhere near the 50+ examples they had with the A380...and they operate in the most congested airport in the world! Wow!

PlaneAdmirer · Fri Mar 06, 2015 12:00 am

Anyone else curious about the concentration of orders from one carrier, for one aircraft type, and making sure that carrier actually pays for them? To proceed Airbus has to commit X number of billion. EK would have to make a deposit of some percentage of X billion. Still the risk is all on Airbus and all with customer that is becoming politically unpopular in Europe.

That's a lot of risk for Airbus to take.

TedToToe · Fri Mar 06, 2015 12:04 am

Quoting btblue (Reply 2):

Would we likely see these new birds with a 3-5-3 interior in economy?

Without doubt, that is one of the things that will drive the CASM down!

thekorean · Fri Mar 06, 2015 12:05 am

Quoting BD338 (Reply 5):

I get they are in a perfect spot to connect different cities combos but man.

Boeing778X · Fri Mar 06, 2015 12:11 am

Good lord!

First, 150 777-9s and -8s! (And those surely won't be the only ones!)

Then talks for 50-70 787s or A350s!

Now, 200 A380neos!

Either Clark has a vision, or he's just crazy! Is EK trying to take over the world or something?!

[Edited 2015-03-05 16:17:23]

HALtheAI · Fri Mar 06, 2015 12:23 am

I'm sure EK would be satisfied with a modest 50% of all international pax traffic.

kiwiandrew · Fri Mar 06, 2015 12:26 am

I would be very surprised if Airbus ( or the engine manufacturers* )were prepared to risk launching the NEO based on a single customer, however large their order. I would think anyone providing finance for this would want to see additional orders from other customers.

IIRC while Boeing's main impetus for the 747 was the ( in those days) massive order for 25 from Pan Am, but I believe that they held off a formal launch until they had secured additional orders from other customers ( from memory LH and JL for 3 apiece).

Imagine the risk Airbus would be exposed to if something happened to EK and that was their sole customer for a very expensive project ? (For those who think that nothing could happen to EK, just imagine how they might have been affected if Dubai had suffered a total economic collapse back in 2009 as it very nearly did).

* Edited in light of Holzmann's excellent point two posts after mine.

[Edited 2015-03-05 17:22:28]

blueflyer · Fri Mar 06, 2015 12:59 am

What will happen to their current fleet? Some of the A380 NEOs may be for growth, but I assume most will be to replace current models. I seem to remember reading that the depreciation schedule and Emirates' planned lifetime use match one another, meaning the planes could be parked without a financial penalty. Will there be other carriers interested in picking up dirt cheap A380s or will a corner of DXB turn into the largest beached whalejet parking lot?

holzmann · Fri Mar 06, 2015 1:05 am

Sorry but Airbus is still largely irrelevant in this equation IMO. Bigger question is whether RR (or someone else) is willing to design and build 1600 new engines.

northwestEWR · Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:05 am

This is just absurd. Does EK really expect the rest of the world to sit back and let them deploy an even more insane number of seats in everyone's territory? That's ridiculous.

More importantly, there are only so many markets that will work by connecting in DXB and a large portion of the world's traffic will never work. US-Asia, US-Europe, Australia-Asia, Europe-Europe, US-US, etc.

I hope their arrogance catches up to them.

BA0197 · Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:07 am

Quoting BD338 (Reply 5):
BA had ( I believe) the worlds largest 747 fleet at some point but can't even begin to consider replacing/upgrading anywhere near the 50+ examples they had with the A380...and they operate in the most congested airport in the world!

I follow your logic and personally have always thought the same!

xdlx · Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:47 am

Quoting northwestEWR (Reply 14):

Their mindset is to drive the Hub with the A380. If they run 5 "pushes" a day of 35-40 airplanes each, you quickly need that many for the operation.

toxtethogrady · Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:51 am

If anyone but Reuters had said that, I would have thought they were yanking our chains. An order of 200 for an airplane that no one else in the world but Emirates thinks makes business sense is hard to believe.

Sooner787 · Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:59 am

So if Airbus decides not to proceed with the A380neo,

does this mean EK turns around and buy 200 748I's

peterinlisbon · Fri Mar 06, 2015 3:00 am

It doesn't really matter what other (generally uninformed) people think makes business sense. If Emirates thinks this makes business sense then this is what they will do, and they should know. They have a track record of huge orders and huge profits, which shows that they know what they are doing. The world's population is increasing and many highly-populated countries, especially in Asia, are increasing their income levels and people are starting to travel more. Plus they only have so much space at Dubai airport so to keep on growing they have to fly bigger aircraft (and where else do you go from the 777-300?).

solarflyer22 · Fri Mar 06, 2015 3:02 am

Quoting SonomaFlyer (Reply 1):
I think the big question is whether anyone other than EK and perhaps a few for the other M3 would buy the plane?

I think you would see another 50 frames of the NEO sold. The beauty of the Emirates order is that its so large it justifies developing a NEO by itself. The other sales are gravy.

northwestEWR · Fri Mar 06, 2015 3:39 am

Quoting xdlx (Reply 16):

Quoting northwestEWR (Reply 14):

Their mindset is to drive the Hub with the A380. If they run 5 "pushes" a day of 35-40 airplanes each, you quickly need that many for the operation.

And if they can figure out how to turn 5 banks of 40 A380s profitably, I'll eat my hat. If they were the only game in town or if this was London or Beijing with nearly unlimited local and connecting traffic, things might be different but as someone else already pointed out, even BA at LHR can only run 50ish 747s.

I don't doubt that the folks at emirates think this is a good idea, clearly they do but I think they're overly optimistic and almost blinded by their own ego.

chiad · Fri Mar 06, 2015 6:19 am

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 9):
First, 150 777-9s and -8s! (And those surely won't be the only ones!)

Then talks for 50-70 787s or A350s!

Now, 200 A380neos!

So this is pretty much what EK's fleet could look like in 2030 after all current A380's and B777's have been phased out and expansion is in place.
35 B777-8X
115 B777-9X
200 A380NEO
60 B787/A350 (though I suspect that the A350 might already be a part of this deal, but that's just me)

450+ frames is not that unimaginable considering it's EK we're talking about. They have, after all, some 220 frames now.
With the world population growing and, more even importantly, the world's middle-class growing as is does, I can definitely see EK's vision in this.
Imagine what India and China will look like in 15 years with maybe 1 Billion new middle-class citizens.

airportugal310 · Fri Mar 06, 2015 6:55 am

Quoting peterinlisbon (Reply 19):

I'd have to agree. Their track record speaks for itself

JetBuddy · Fri Mar 06, 2015 7:30 am

Quoting chiad (Reply 22):
Imagine what India and China will look like in 15 years with maybe 1 Billion new middle-class citizens.

Yep.. and countries like Nigeria, Kenya and Brazil will add a few hundred million more.

This order is still a huge risk for Airbus though. Emirates aren't invincible. But the majority of the cost of the A380neo programme might be the engines themselves. So basically Airbus have been invited to the "Eat the 200 x A380neo steak and get it for free. But, if you can't finish it, you'll have to pay for it. " Or .. you could say they have the world's largest carrot in front of them, and a pretty large stick behind them.

Ok, that could be interpreted different ways.. time to go to bed.

chiad · Fri Mar 06, 2015 8:44 am

Quoting JetBuddy (Reply 24):
Yep.. and countries like Nigeria, Kenya and Brazil will add a few hundred million more.

Absolutely!
Of course EK will be in tough competition with 100 other airlines for this business, but I find it astonishing about it's growth.
I've been looking at the turnover numbers for EK and they grew an average of 17.5% between 2010 and 2014.
If these numbers where to continue, which I am sure is EK's plans, and they were to correspond directly to Emirates fleet, then a they still need much more seats than what a 450 strong fleet would bring them in 2030.
If EK's fleet (units of frames) grew by only 5% annually then their fleet would number about 460 in 2030.

I know that global inflation would bring fleet vs turnover down, and that EK is replacing smaller aircraft with larger ones in general, but I have no doubt that Emirates Airlines plan to have a larger fleet than 460 units in 15 within years.

chrisp390 · Fri Mar 06, 2015 9:03 am

My thought is can they sustain the growth. They have been riding a lot on the back of Indias economic growth, traffic to/from there and lack of solid carriers operating direct from India. What happens when India gets its act together and starts being able to offer competitive non stop flights from India to destinations across the world?

maxter · Fri Mar 06, 2015 9:32 am

Quoting northwestEWR (Reply 21):

And if they can figure out how to turn 5 banks of 40 A380s profitably, I'll eat my hat

Would you like that with salt and pepper, perhaps some gravy...

Nothing you've said in your two hyperbolic posts above actually provide a reason why EK can't achieve what the rumor says it want's to achieve, especially given the growth trajectory they have already achieved and are currently on.

Bold statements indeed...

sturmovik · Fri Mar 06, 2015 9:55 am

Quoting chrisp390 (Reply 26):
What happens when India gets its act together

Hahaha.. I think they'll be retiring A380NEOs by the time we get our act together

Ab345 · Fri Mar 06, 2015 11:17 am

The NEO investement for Airbus is not that much of a problem since by then the breakeven per unit will be achieved anyway, the initial cost has been written off a while back, and Rolls Royce will finance most of the party. Since Tim Clark hinter a few days ago that the Trent 900 is on the table for the rest of the engineless Ceo's , a deal for some ceos and neos could make RR very very happy. As others have posted regarding the engines in speculation, the Advance and the Ultrafan must go as a set. Having the Advance on the neo will make the Ultrafan a much better engine in about 10 years.

As far as the older frames that EK is going to retire, as again Mr. Clark has stated they might as well remain parked in the desert

A380s Will Be Parked In The Desert - Clark (by fcogafa Oct 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

kl911 · Fri Mar 06, 2015 12:09 pm

Quoting PlaneAdmirer (Reply 6):
Still the risk is all on Airbus and all with customer that is becoming politically unpopular in Europe.

I don't know about other countries, but EK is very popular in The Netherlands, great service and great seats/IFE too. And not too expensive.

JerseyFlyer · Fri Mar 06, 2015 12:25 pm

Quoting Ab345 (Reply 29):
Trent 900 is on the table for the rest of the engineless Ceo's

This sort of deal looks likely as part of a neo launch - it gives RR some cash to play with upfront that it can deploy on neo engine development.

scbriml · Fri Mar 06, 2015 12:56 pm

Quoting northwestEWR (Reply 14):
More importantly, there are only so many markets that will work by connecting in DXB and a large portion of the world's traffic will never work. US-Asia, US-Europe, Australia-Asia, Europe-Europe, US-US, etc.

Those you've quoted are only a small portion of the World's traffic. The real growth areas are Asia-Pacific, China and India. Emirates is perfectly placed as a mega-hub to serve those markets plus Europe to those markets.

Quoting toxtethogrady (Reply 17):
An order of 200 for an airplane that no one else in the world but Emirates thinks makes business sense is hard to believe.

Apart from airlines like, ooh, BA, LH, SQ, QF, KE, TG, QR, EY...

Quoting northwestEWR (Reply 21):
I don't doubt that the folks at emirates think this is a good idea, clearly they do but I think they're overly optimistic and almost blinded by their own ego.

What in their history suggests anything other than a great business plan superbly executed? Ego doesn't come into it.

xdlx · Fri Mar 06, 2015 1:11 pm

Quoting northwestEWR (Reply 21):

If you look at their development and as pointed earlier, their history. The Master plan is to CREATE a Transportation SYSTEM around DXB & A380.
BA & their 50 VLA have one restriction to growth and it is called LHR.
No other airline in history has tried what EK is doing. Provided that there is no setbacks on air travel, if allowed to continue EK has resources to come very close to their goal.

TheRedBaron · Fri Mar 06, 2015 1:30 pm

Quoting PlaneAdmirer (Reply 6):
That's a lot of risk for Airbus to take.

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 11):
I would be very surprised if Airbus ( or the engine manufacturers* )were prepared to risk launching the NEO based on a single customer, however large their order. I would think anyone providing finance for this would want to see additional orders from other customers.

Quoting xdlx (Reply 33):
Provided that there is no setbacks on air travel

As much as I like the A380, "NEVER put all your eggs in one basket"...

Just a 2008 financial crisis or a SARS scare or something like that can and will derail such a big ambitious project.

Anyone wants to predict where are they going to fly 450 Wide Bodies in 2030?

TRB

art · Fri Mar 06, 2015 1:30 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 32):
Quoting toxtethogrady (Reply 17):An order of 200 for an airplane that no one else in the world but Emirates thinks makes business sense is hard to believe.

Apart from airlines like, ooh, BA, LH, SQ, QF, KE, TG, QR, EY...

When SQ brought the A380 into service it was said that they were likely to replace them after 12 years IIRC. Any reason why they would not start replacing their earliest deliveries with NEO's from around 2020?

InsideMan · Fri Mar 06, 2015 1:40 pm

Quoting PlaneAdmirer (Reply 6):
That's a lot of risk for Airbus to take.

If anyone's risk it's RRs. Besides, pre delivery payments and deposits should cover a lot of accrued expenses if EK should ever collapse.

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 9):
Either Clark has a vision, or he's just crazy!

Quoting peterinlisbon (Reply 19):
It doesn't really matter what other (generally uninformed) people think makes business sense. If Emirates thinks this makes business sense then this is what they will do, and they should know. They have a track record of huge orders and huge profits, which shows that they know what they are doing.

Tim Clark and Emirates have shown over and over again, that while their plans are ambitious and probably outright scary to most legacy carriers, they always come through and their track record shows, they know exactly what they're doing.

Quoting blueflyer (Reply 12):
Will there be other carriers interested in picking up dirt cheap A380s or will a corner of DXB turn into the largest beached whalejet parking lot?

Like EK would enable any other Airline to compete with them on CASM. Once the frames are written off, they will be parked or cut up for parts.

Rara · Fri Mar 06, 2015 1:41 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 32):
The real growth areas are Asia-Pacific, China and India. Emirates is perfectly placed as a mega-hub to serve those markets plus Europe to those markets.

Not really. Emirates is placed at the fringe of the emergent Asia-Pacific markets and can't offer any connectivity between them. Their business model really is to connect the established markets of Europe and North America to the emergent markets of India and Asia-Pacific. Also, they can connect Africa to Asia, and they can at least try to connect between Africa and Europe. But let's stay realistic, without Europe and North America, Emirates wouldn't have business model.

Kiwirob · Fri Mar 06, 2015 1:45 pm

Quoting PlaneAdmirer (Reply 6):
Still the risk is all on Airbus and all with customer that is becoming politically unpopular in Europe.

If EK order 200 NEO's they'll be even more popular in France, Germany and the UK, it would be worth billions to countries with Airbus factories.

Quoting chiad (Reply 22):
With the world population growing and, more even importantly, the world's middle-class growing as is does, I can definitely see EK's vision in this.
Imagine what India and China will look like in 15 years with maybe 1 Billion new middle-class citizens.

With all these additional middle class people up and coming it makes the shrinking US middle class irrelevant.

speedbored · Fri Mar 06, 2015 1:46 pm

Quoting TheRedBaron (Reply 34):
Just a 2008 financial crisis or a SARS scare or something like that can and will derail such a big ambitious project.

Well neither of those seemed to derail Emirates last time

parapente · Fri Mar 06, 2015 1:54 pm

Reply 37

without Europe and North America, Emirates wouldn't have business model.

Odd thing to say - if I may say so.Europe and North America DO exist. That's the whole point of their business model.

But this bit is spot on except the 'try' bit.

Their business model really is to connect the established markets of Europe and North America to the emergent markets of India and Asia-Pacific. Also, they can connect Africa to Asia, and they can at least try to connect between Africa and Europe.

They don't 'try' to connect Africa to Europe (and N America and the Far East btw).They do - and they do it very well indeed.I have done it twice from London.

You are right to say they are not in the intra Asia market (or intra anywhere else)- nor are they in the Pacific rim market - but they are in everywhere else. They will have to buy a couple of companies to do those other areas.But they have their hands full - at the moment!

scouseflyer · Fri Mar 06, 2015 1:55 pm

Quoting art (Reply 35):
When SQ brought the A380 into service it was said that they were likely to replace them after 12 years IIRC. Any reason why they would not start replacing their earliest deliveries with NEO's from around 2020?

Haven't they ordered their next 5 ceos to replace those early deliveries and then maybe the rest with Neos?

ridgid727 · Fri Mar 06, 2015 1:55 pm

Quoting northwestEWR (Reply 21):
blinded by their own ego.

This will be their unraveling. Maybe not soon, but somewhere it will. "If you've got it flaunt it" has never worked in the airline business.

DLPMMM · Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:19 pm

With the wording of "up to 200" I would take that to mean tan order plus options...like 100 units plus100 options.

Makes a little difference in expectations for their business model

Farzan · Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:34 pm

Quoting chiad (Thread starter):
Reuters reports that EK said it would look at placing an order for up to 200 A380neo jets to replace its current fleet and drive further expansion.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...ates-airline-idUSKBN0M10UA20150305

With such a card from Emirates I don't think Airbus can "afford" not to do the NEO.
It could all be "coincidents", but I wonder if

Leahy: A380 Is Here To Stay (by A342 Mar 5 2015 in Civil Aviation)

and

Emirates Eyes 50 To 70 A350 Or B787 (by ojas Mar 5 2015 in Civil Aviation)

may be connected in the biggest deal that the airline industry has ever seen.

Only speculation of course. But I was thinking along these lines ever since the A-350 cancellation. May I be right please (for once)

georgiaame · Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:46 pm

Quoting BD338 (Reply 5):
Wow! How is it that EK is the only airline that can seemingly make the A380 work in large numbers?

To paraphrase Inspector Clouseau in the Pink Panther, in regards to how his wife could afford to buy minks and diamonds on an inspector's salary, "Emirates is very thrifty."

It certainly isn't from getting massive under the table government subsidies. Ockam's Razor.

2175301 · Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:54 pm

I agree that an order of 200 A380's from Emirates over a reasonable number of years is enough to make the A380NEO clearly economically possible. At 100 there were many questions.

As for what Emirates does with those planes. It does not matter to Airbus or RR.

Have a great day,

Gabrielz · Fri Mar 06, 2015 4:09 pm

Airbus should say no and tell them to buy CEOs instead.

If EK's plans require this amount of capacity lift, what choice do they have? None. The only option is the A380. And if Airbus won't build the NEO, what will EK do? Stop growing? They now depend absolutely on a single vendor, and if that vendor is smart - and stops thinking with their pride instead of their balance sheet - they would tell the client to buy what's on offer.

I'm sure this is the internal battle that's preventing the program announcement already.

My money is that they're not disciplined enough to do that. They don't really care enough about the shareholders to think rationally, and they are hoping this will fix their "legacy" with the aircraft.

-G

N328KF · Fri Mar 06, 2015 4:23 pm

To me, this only makes sense if Airbus develops the A380-900 with a new-generation engine, and then can easily apply that back to the -800.

abba · Fri Mar 06, 2015 4:27 pm

Quoting InsideMan (Reply 36):
If anyone's risk it's RRs. Besides, pre delivery payments and deposits should cover a lot of accrued expenses if EK should ever collapse.

And if EK should indeed collapse then the big question is what that would do to the entire industry when the passengers now carried by EK are going to be carried by someone else.

I am sure that the loss of EK as customer for the A380 would in fact mean more rather than less sales.

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