Will Alaska Airlines Ever Invest In Heavies?

b777900 · Fri Mar 20, 2015 12:42 am

Will AS ever think of expanding international with larger aircraft? like for example 330's or 350's?

Stitch · Fri Mar 20, 2015 12:49 am

I expect not. They have a good thing going at the moment and plenty of partnerships for international connections.

Though back in the day, they placed an order for one 747-100 that they subsequently cancelled when they did not win the SEA-LHR route authority.

Alaska Airlines & 747's (by Flybynight Aug 3 2003 in Civil Aviation)

Boeing778X · Fri Mar 20, 2015 12:50 am

Quoting b777900 (Thread starter):
Will AS ever think of expanding international with larger aircraft? like for example 330's or 350's?

Seeing as AS is a very loyal Boeing customer, I have no reason to believe they'd even THINK about an Airbus, let alone A330s and A350s.

Why would they?

They have a supplier, literally, the next airport over who'll sell them much more adequate 787s.

In any case, to answer your original question, no, they won't. Not anytime soon at least. I can see perhaps 787-8s, or, if the NSA can cut it, some longer range versions of that.

Byrdluvs747 · Fri Mar 20, 2015 12:50 am

I believe they should have started the moment Delta came to town.

b777900 · Fri Mar 20, 2015 12:51 am

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 2):

ANSWERS my question very well good to know.

hiflyeras · Fri Mar 20, 2015 12:53 am

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 3):
I believe they should have started the moment Delta came to town.

Yep...should have leased some 767's and placed an order for 787's that week. But DL has been sneaky about the whole thing. They're the Vladimir Putin of airlines Wink

[Edited 2015-03-19 17:57:39]

n53614 · Fri Mar 20, 2015 12:55 am

Yes, Alaska should get A350s for the SEA-PDX runs.

LAXintl · Fri Mar 20, 2015 12:56 am

From previous thread:

At their Q4 earnings call they were asked this specifically.

Their answer was NO, not at this time

As they put it, yes AS in 2014 is different than AS in 1984 and surely AS in 2044 will look different as well, they are very happy with the flexibility and efficiency the single fleet 737 provides them currently.

They realize they likely have some market power to utilize widebodies and go deeper international at some point, but its nothing they are giving consideration to and prefer to keep running the very successful airline they are doing now.

Would Alaska Airlines Ever Consider Widebodies? (by noise Apr 29 2014 in Civil Aviation)

LAX772LR · Fri Mar 20, 2015 12:58 am

Quoting b777900 (Thread starter):
Heavy's?

Quoting b777900 (Thread starter):
330's or 350's?

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
747's

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 5):
767's and placed an order for 787's

Good holy lord people, apostrophes don't pluralize!! Wow!

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 2):
Seeing as AS is a very loyal Boeing customer, I have no reason to believe they'd even THINK about an Airbus

They have every reason in the world to think about Airbus, they'd do their shareholders an enormous dearth of responsibility if they didn't do the diligence in such.

[Edited 2015-03-19 18:06:11]

Thomaas · Fri Mar 20, 2015 1:05 am

I doubt it, introducing wide bodies is very costly and could bankrupt the airline. I doubt that AS has the brand recognition or the route network structure to make international work. Unless they join an alliance and heavily code-share with their partners, they would get slaughtered on the routes. Not to mention that there are now at least 2-3 airlines on every route to Asia from SEA, making it much harder to be competitive.

rotating14 · Fri Mar 20, 2015 1:24 am

Boeing778X,

Loyalty is as good as the slots available. Ie Boeing had the better planes but lost the DL RFP due to lack of delivery slots. Meaning if Boeing was sold out for longer than AS could stand, they'd have to seek lift elsewhere.

[quote=b777900,reply=0]

The next AS/DL takeover/AA merges with AS/AS should fly wide body aircraft thread wasn't due for another week but I guess a week early is ok. I kid. AS has a streamlined operation with flying all over the west coast and select cities on the east coast. The best comparison I can make is that WN brings in 7 times the revenue AS does and they are still flying only 737's. AS probably won't deviate from what they're doing. They'll be flying 737's for the next 20 years.

Boeing778X · Fri Mar 20, 2015 2:07 am

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 8):
They have every reason in the world to think about Airbus, they'd do their shareholders an enormous dearth of responsibility if they didn't do the diligence in such.

For the US3s, that may be the case, but there are no smaller airlines in this country that are going to buy from both Airbus And Boeing if they buy the same type of plane.

Spirit has Airbus. They aren't going to buy Boeing 737s. Neither is Frontier, Or Jetblue, or Virgin America.

Same with Alaska and Southwest about A320s.

And NONE of said airlines has the need for any widebodies.

PlanesNTrains · Fri Mar 20, 2015 2:17 am

Quoting b777900 (Thread starter):
Will AS ever think of expanding international with larger aircraft? like for example 330's or 350's?

How can anyone "know" what will happen? I'm not trying to be obtuse but it's just such a hypothetical question that there really isn't an answer to it, short of the quote by AS in LAXintl's reply below.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 3):

I believe they should have started the moment Delta came to town.

And died a quick death in the process. Throwing 737's at SLC a few times a day is one thing. Throwing very expensive widebodies onto international routes would be akin to Custer's Last Stand, imho.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 7):
Would Alaska Airlines Ever Consider Widebodies? (by noise Apr 29 2014 in Civil Aviation)

Indeed, it's been discussed a lot. It's a valid subject, but it's just been talked about a lot already.

-Dave

slcdeltarumd11 · Fri Mar 20, 2015 2:26 am

No i think they have a good thing now. No reason to shift so drastically they are pretty powerful to fight delta still. AS is still making money and there are no gurantees that Delta will keep its SEA pressure going, they could loose interest in the place for all we know.

AS would be opening the doors to potentially loose alot with those planes, you gain heavy expenses and bills you gotta pay, If they go widebody i think it will be MUCH easier to make them bleed money. Delta can dump capacity and slash fares and AS will have all these heavy bills to pay with widebodies. I would say getting widebodies and all those expenses of going international gives delta a chance to turn the knife more, right now they can only turn so far but AS is still doing very well! I see keep it going and put more pressure on DL in SEA more narrow-bodies if anything. I think AS best defense is to not fight delta internationally fight them on the bread and butter domestic routes and make them bleed while you keep your loyal flyers happy. AS will certainly loose the heavy international flyers no matter what they do but they can keep the constant domestic travellers and leisure travellers all happy and flying.

Worst case scenario long term i could see them merge with Hawaiian if they really feel they have to go international. I dont think they have to, the vast majority o&d is so focused on domestic flying. I saw keep trucking but keep the focus on SEA domestic o&d

Thomaas · Fri Mar 20, 2015 3:17 am

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 13):
Worst case scenario long term i could see them merge with Hawaiian if they really feel they have to go international. I dont think they have to, the vast majority o&d is so focused on domestic flying. I saw keep trucking but keep the focus on SEA domestic o&d

I think that a merger would HA would be great only if they can rotate HA's A330s in and out of SEA for international flying. It would make for an extremely efficient operation if they could turn over a place to do something like HNL-PEK-SEA-PEK-HNL. The only problem would be the identity of the combined company as both have very strong brand in their respective markets.

PlanesNTrains · Fri Mar 20, 2015 3:26 am

Quoting Thomaas (Reply 14):
I think that a merger would HA would be great only if they can rotate HA's A330s in and out of SEA for international flying.

I think that would be a prerequisite of any merger - widebody usage ex-SEA. It would probably be a fairly low-risk way of competing out of SEA as they would be able to simply move them back to Hawaii if things didn't work out. I just don't know if a merger for that reason alone makes any sense, and I'm not sure if there's anything else that compelling that would bring them together.

Quoting Thomaas (Reply 14):
The only problem would be the identity of the combined company as both have very strong brand in their respective markets.

I'd imagine they'd just keep their respective identities.

-Dave

LAX772LR · Fri Mar 20, 2015 3:28 am

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 11):
For the US3s, that may be the case, but there are no smaller airlines in this country that are going to buy from both Airbus And Boeing if they buy the same type of plane.

Spirit has Airbus. They aren't going to buy Boeing 737s. Neither is Frontier, Or Jetblue, or Virgin America.

Same with Alaska and Southwest about A320s.

Hold up, you're conflating two different things here.

The premise of this thread was: would AS invest in widebodies, and your post states that they wouldn't have a reason to think about Airbus in regard to such. And I'm sorry, but that's just plain false.

How do I know, because AS (along with FR and even WN) still consult/bid/hose Airbus all the time.
Does that mean that they're going to flip their 737 fleets for A32x? No, not likely. Does that mean that they very much are thinking about Airbus (even if only a means to keep Boeing honest) and open to what Airbus has to say? Yes, it does.

You're naive to believe otherwise.

Max Q · Fri Mar 20, 2015 3:39 am

AS is, without doubt the finest 'legacy' remaining that hasn't merged but I just don't see how they can remain independent in this day and age.

They have been a target so long, with their valuable franchise I think it's just a matter of time.

Boeing778X · Fri Mar 20, 2015 3:42 am

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 16):
The premise of this thread was: would AS invest in widebodies, and your post states that they wouldn't have a reason to think about Airbus

B777900 suggested either the A330 and A350. My point was, AS isn't going to invest in widebodies, because they don't need it, and even if they did, I wouldn't be convinced they go Airbus because they are heavily reliant on Boeing, who is a great partner to them.

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 16):
How do I know, because AS (along with FR and even WN) still consult/bid/hose Airbus all the time.

Understood, I have no doubt. It would be bad business not to. I never suggested that they shouldn't, let's make that clear.

FR is wholly Airbus, so I'm sure they do a bit more consulting than the other two you mentioned

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 16):
Does that mean that they're going to flip their 737 fleets for A32x? No, not likely. Does that mean that they very much are thinking about Airbus (even if only a means to keep Boeing honest) and open to what Airbus has to say? Yes, it does.

Again, it would be very bad business not to.

I will say that this has happened in isolated cases however, in which carriers who operated a large number of A320/737 types switched.

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 16):
You're naive to believe otherwise.

Luckily, I don't.

PlanesNTrains · Fri Mar 20, 2015 3:58 am

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 18):
FR is wholly Airbus, so I'm sure they do a bit more consulting than the other two you mentioned

That'll be news to Boeing.

-Dave

Thomaas · Fri Mar 20, 2015 4:08 am

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 15):
Quoting Thomaas (Reply 14):
The only problem would be the identity of the combined company as both have very strong brand in their respective markets.

I'd imagine they'd just keep their respective identities.

I agree that both brands would be kept but then the problem would be how to rotate the A330s in the network. If they truly want to be efficient as a merged entity, they would need to fly something like HNL-SEA-HKG-HNL etc., maximizing the usage of the frames. The problem is that you'd need a single livery on the plane, HA's livery would confuse passengers on the hypothetical SEA-HKG sector while AS's livery would confuse passengers on HKG-HNL. I wonder if the solution would be a hybrid HA/AS on each side of the plane similar to what NWA did with KLM.

seabosdca · Fri Mar 20, 2015 4:15 am

No.

If they want to bleed cash and put all of their smart and effective management of the last few years to waste, they'd order some 787s and start international routes.

If they want to make a bit of extra cash instead, they'll expand on their longtime multi-partnership strategy and develop partnerships with all of the new international entrants out of SEA, as well as UA for the SFO international hub.

And there is absolutely no way that Boeing would allow AS to be poached by Airbus. Of course AS and Airbus talk. Both know that talk won't go anywhere unless there is an epic screwup. If AS were to lose its mind and order widebodies, they'd be 787-8s or 787-9s.

PlanesNTrains · Fri Mar 20, 2015 4:34 am

Quoting Thomaas (Reply 20):
The problem is that you'd need a single livery on the plane

I'm not convinced of that. It'd depend on the branding strategy of the combined carriers. Codeshares and alliances have been very successful, so tweaking it for these two might work fine.

Quoting Thomaas (Reply 20):
I wonder if the solution would be a hybrid HA/AS on each side of the plane similar to what NWA did with KLM.

It'd be cool looking.

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 21):
Both know that talk won't go anywhere unless there is an epic screwup.

Well, the rumor is that the LEAP from CFM that will be going on Alaska's MAX deliveries might be considerably under spec. That might qualify as an epic screwup.

-Dave

zckls04 · Fri Mar 20, 2015 4:43 am

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 18):
FR is wholly Airbus, so I'm sure they do a bit more consulting than the other two you mentioned

FR = Ryanair
F9 = Frontier

EA CO AS · Fri Mar 20, 2015 4:52 am

AS would and could make much better use of an efficient 200-225 seat narrowbody aircraft with B757-200 range in the near term (next 5-10 years) than any iteration of any widebody currently on the market.

Just my $0.02 of course...

PlanesNTrains · Fri Mar 20, 2015 5:09 am

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 24):
AS would and could make much better use of an efficient 200-225 seat narrowbody aircraft with B757-200 range in the near term (next 5-10 years) than any iteration of any widebody currently on the market.

Just my $0.02 of course...

Is it time to hedge with the A321neo? Mobile, AL built of course.

-Dave

seabosdca · Fri Mar 20, 2015 5:25 am

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 22):
That might qualify as an epic screwup.

Not near epic enough. Boeing will pay a little compensation for fuel bills and it will be fine.

Epic screwup would be something like delaying the MAX for 5 years.

LAX772LR · Fri Mar 20, 2015 5:34 am

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 18):
FR is wholly Airbus

Huh??????????????????

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PlanesNTrains · Fri Mar 20, 2015 6:01 am

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 26):
Not near epic enough. Boeing will pay a little compensation for fuel bills and it will be fine.

Of course. I was half-kidding, of course, but certainly a poor-performing MAX could force AS to consider some options.

-Dave

Boeing778X · Fri Mar 20, 2015 6:02 am

Quoting zckls04 (Reply 23):
FR = Ryanair
F9 = Frontier

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 27):
Huh??????????????????

That is my bad! I rarely mix up IATA codes!

I apologize, let me make corrections!

I am aware Airbus and Ryanair (not Frontier, B778, you nitwit, you) have talked in recent history as well.

RWA380 · Fri Mar 20, 2015 6:10 am

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 2):
Seeing as AS is a very loyal Boeing customer, I have no reason to believe they'd even THINK about an Airbus, let alone A330s and A350s.

While I'm sure Airbus may have provided presentations, AS is very loyal to Boeing, it is a Seattle thing & with DL nipping at their heels @ SEA, I'd be very surprised to see AS buy Airbus aircraft. Although I would not rule out an Embraer or Mitsubishi order in the future for smaller jets.

Quoting n53614 (Reply 6):

Yes, Alaska should get A350s for the SEA-PDX runs.

The demand for the last flight of the night SEA-PDX on certain nights could almost fill one, sure would be fun to have a wide-body jet to fly this route on once again. Of course that's fiction in the real world, we're lucky to get the one 734 in a sea of Q-400's.

727LOVER · Fri Mar 20, 2015 6:20 am

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 2):
They have a supplier, literally, the next airport over

Jog my memory...at what Seattle area airport were these built?

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PlanesNTrains · Fri Mar 20, 2015 6:32 am

Quoting 727LOVER (Reply 31):

Jog my memory...at what Seattle area airport were these built?

Well, technically, they're Boeing.

-Dave

Boeing778X · Fri Mar 20, 2015 7:30 am

Quoting 727LOVER (Reply 31):
Jog my memory...at what Seattle area airport were these built?

Here's a better question: When was the last time AS operated MD-80s again?

And, last I checked, MD-80s were, legally, Boeing's

Passedv1 · Fri Mar 20, 2015 7:35 am

Quoting Thomaas (Reply 14):
I think that a merger would HA would be great only if they can rotate HA's A330s in and out of SEA for international flying. It would make for an extremely efficient operation if they could turn over a place to do something like HNL-PEK-SEA-PEK-HNL. The only problem would be the identity of the combined company as both have very strong brand in their respective markets.

I think it might have happened by now had Hawaiian gone with the 787 instead of the 330. This management is very against having 2 fleet types instead of 1. I think acquiring a carrier with 3, bringing the total to 4 with 3 (I don't count the 717 as a Boeing product) different manufacturers gives them the warm fuzzy.

I think if AS did do something with a W/B I think it would be something similar to the E-170 deal with Skywest. Alaska buys a small number of 787s and have somebody else operate them. ANA?

bjorn14 · Fri Mar 20, 2015 9:38 am

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 15):
I'd imagine they'd just keep their respective identities.

Yep. It would be sad to see two great liveries disappear. That's why they have a holding company.

Quoting Thomaas (Reply 20):
The problem is that you'd need a single livery on the plane, HA's livery would confuse passengers on the hypothetical SEA-HKG sector while AS's livery would confuse passengers on HKG-HNL.

Do pax get confused flying WN on the MHT-BWI route?

Thomaas · Fri Mar 20, 2015 10:25 am

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 35):
Quoting Thomaas (Reply 20):
The problem is that you'd need a single livery on the plane, HA's livery would confuse passengers on the hypothetical SEA-HKG sector while AS's livery would confuse passengers on HKG-HNL.

Do pax get confused flying WN on the MHT-BWI route?

PAX booking an HA ticket and getting an AS aircraft would be confused just in the same way as AS pax getting an HA plane would be.

aviatorcraig · Fri Mar 20, 2015 12:30 pm

Quoting Thomaas (Reply 36):
Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 35):
Quoting Thomaas (Reply 20):
The problem is that you'd need a single livery on the plane, HA's livery would confuse passengers on the hypothetical SEA-HKG sector while AS's livery would confuse passengers on HKG-HNL.

Do pax get confused flying WN on the MHT-BWI route?

Remind me again. Which part of Alaska is Seattle in?

ytz · Fri Mar 20, 2015 2:22 pm

Quoting Thomaas (Reply 14):
I think that a merger would HA would be great only if they can rotate HA's A330s in and out of SEA for international flying.

Quoting Thomaas (Reply 36):
PAX booking an HA ticket and getting an AS aircraft would be confused just in the same way as AS pax getting an HA plane would be.

I don't think that's how it would work. If AS and HA merged, ANC could be used as a hub for AS serving the northern Pacific (up to and including a lot of southeast Asia such as SIN, SGN, TPE, MNL), essentially an Asian hub. And HNL would be used for the South Pacific (Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia), essentially the Australasian hub. Both feeding from the US mainland and Canada.

I hope they do merge one day. They'd create quite the Pacific powerhouse.

maxpower1954 · Fri Mar 20, 2015 2:35 pm

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 33):
Here's a better question: When was the last time AS operated MD-80s again?

And, last I checked, MD-80s were, legally, Boeing's

They certainly weren't Boeings when the were ordered back in the mid '80s...to REPLACE Boeing 727s. I'm sure the fanboys back then said Alaska would NEVER order anything but Boeings - which they had been operating since the mid 1960s.

It's a business first and foremost. As previous AS management showed.

[Edited 2015-03-20 08:04:30]

Luftymatt · Fri Mar 20, 2015 3:15 pm

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 33):
And, last I checked, MD-80s were, legally, Boeing's

Thats not what he asked. They certainly weren't Boeing when they were built.

CV880 · Fri Mar 20, 2015 3:57 pm

Quoting PassedV1 (Reply 34):
I think it might have happened by now had Hawaiian gone with the 787 instead of the 330. This management is very against having 2 fleet types instead of 1. I think acquiring a carrier with 3, bringing the total to 4 with 3 (I don't count the 717 as a Boeing product) different manufacturers gives them the warm fuzzy.

DL is a better fit for HA, with like aircraft. DL already does heavy mtc for HA & could operate HA as a subsidiary, leaving the HA name intact. Coordinate the skeds between the two for better connections where both operate, particularly on the West Coast & let AA/UA have AS.

727LOVER · Fri Mar 20, 2015 4:25 pm

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 32):
Well, technically, they're Boeing.

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 33):
And, last I checked, MD-80s were, legally, Boeing's

Not when they were manufactured.

DocLightning · Fri Mar 20, 2015 4:52 pm

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 2):
Seeing as AS is a very loyal Boeing customer, I have no reason to believe they'd even THINK about an Airbus, let alone A330s and A350s.

NOPE.

AS has two choices of manufacturer when they purchase aircraft. They absolutely need to pit the two against each-other. If they have a policy of buying Boeing only, then they will never get a good deal from Boeing.

And if Airbus answers the RFP better than Boeing does, and AS management chooses Boeing anyway, the shareholders will have some questions for them.

SPREE34 · Fri Mar 20, 2015 5:14 pm

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 2):
They have a supplier, literally, the next airport over who'll sell them much more adequate 787s.

More "adequate" in what way? On which routes?

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 18):
, I wouldn't be convinced they go Airbus because they are heavily reliant on Boeing, who is a great partner to them.

Who is reliant upon whom? Alaska is in the airline business to make money, not keep a particular airframe manufacturer happy or in business. The manufacturers on the othe hand, need to keep their customers happy and provide them the product they NEED to make money. If Alaska needs the uplift and range of the 321NEO, they'll buy it. Same for the 330/350 or 787. It'll be about mathematics, not a home town parts assembler or some other inane trait.

747megatop · Fri Mar 20, 2015 5:14 pm

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 2):
Seeing as AS is a very loyal Boeing customer,

Loyalty gets thrown out of the window when a sweet deal is offered.

mtnwest1979 · Fri Mar 20, 2015 5:16 pm

Well, they may or may not. That is about the only answer to question as placed.

BravoOne · Fri Mar 20, 2015 5:40 pm

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 33):
And, last I checked, MD-80s were, legally, Boeing's

I have seen DC7C manuals stamped with Being on them.

BoeingGuy · Fri Mar 20, 2015 5:55 pm

Quoting maxpower1954 (Reply 39):
They certainly weren't Boeings when the were ordered back in the mid '80s...to REPLACE Boeing 727s. I'm sure the fanboys back then said Alaska would NEVER order anything but Boeings - which they had been operating since the mid 1960s.

It's a business first and foremost. As previous AS management showed.

I was told my an insider that AS intentionally purchased both MD-80s and 734s at the time. The are based out of SEA but were also expanding their routes in Southern California and wanted to keep both areas happy.

DocLightning · Fri Mar 20, 2015 6:00 pm

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 2):
Seeing as AS is a very loyal Boeing customer, I have no reason to believe they'd even THINK about an Airbus, let alone A330s and A350s.

NOPE.

AS has two choices of manufacturer when they purchase aircraft. They absolutely need to pit the two against each-other. If they have a policy of buying Boeing only, then they will never get a good deal from Boeing.

And if Airbus answers the RFP better than Boeing does, and AS management chooses Boeing anyway, the shareholders will have some questions for them.

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