Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS - Part 5

wilco737 · Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:07 pm

And already getting to part 5...

Link to part 4:

Germanwings A320 Crashed Enroute BCN-DUS! Part 4 (by Miami Mar 24 2015 in Civil Aviation)

Thanks.

holzmann · Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:08 pm

I might put this hypothesis forward:

1. Front windscreen fails, perhaps even breaks.
2. Damaged glass incapacitates one or both pilots.
3. At least one pilot is able to reach the altitude gauge of the auto pilot and adjusts for something quick below FL10. Descent engages.
4. Said pilot dies of asphyxiation before he can push the button to drop O2 masks. Or perhaps can't see as he is blind due to broken glass / conditions in cockpit.
5. Entire crew and passengers die within 30 seconds due to asphyxiation. Aside from pilots, they die peacefully.
6. Everyone is thankfully dead when they encounter proximity warning.

[Edited 2015-03-25 05:16:40]

Rara · Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:16 pm

Quoting holzmann (Reply 1):
5. Entire crew and passengers die within 30 seconds due to asphyxiation.

Try holding your breath for 30 seconds, see if you die.

travelavnut · Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:17 pm

I have been offline since just after this disaster happened and haven't had a chance to read the previous 5 threads. As the media is still blaring about a computer problem (the AoA sensor freeze problem which IIRC was already fixed on this aircraft) I was wondering if there is any news?

InsideMan · Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:20 pm

as per Spanish government Sources 49 Spanish residents were on board.....

holzmann · Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:21 pm

Quoting holzmann (Reply 1):
Try holding your breath for 30 seconds, see if you die.

I've never held my breath at FL380. With perhaps a broken windscreen in my face, glass everywhere (if it indeed shatters?), and the feeling of 400 Kt airspeed in my face.

LTC8K6 · Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:21 pm

Quoting holzmann (Reply 1):
I might put this hypothesis forward:

1. Front windscreen fails, perhaps even breaks.
2. Damaged glass incapacitates one or both pilots.
3. At least one pilot is able to reach the altitude gauge of the auto pilot and adjusts for something quick below FL10. Decent engages.
4. Said pilot dies of asphyxiation before he can push the button to drop O2 masks. Or perhaps can't see as he is blind due to broken glass / conditions in cockpit.
5. Entire crew and passengers die within 30 seconds due to asphyxiation. Aside from pilots, they die peacefully.
6. Everyone is thankfully dead when they encounter proximity warning.

Wouldn't the glass blow outwards?

I would think the sudden decompression and shock of the incident would slow the reaction of the pilots.

I don't think you need to push a button for crew O2 masks.

Passenger masks would deploy automatically with the pressure change.

The windshield scenario is interesting, though. It would explain things, but that doesn't mean it's correct.

seahawk · Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:22 pm

I think any speculation on what happened to the people on the plane during the descend is tasteless at the moment. Apart from that fact that it looks not like a midair brake-up, there is nothing to say at the moment.

holzmann · Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:22 pm

Crew O2...no. But PAX O2? I would assume the cockpit controls that. If pilots are incapacitated, pax get no O2, right?

scbriml · Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:23 pm

Quoting travelavnut (Reply 3):
I was wondering if there is any news?

News? Very little.

Plenty of unfounded rumours, rampant speculation and the usual sprinkling of conspiracy theories, however (high-quality posts from the usual contributors notwithstanding).

LTC8K6 · Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:24 pm

Quoting holzmann (Reply 8):
Crew O2...no. But PAX O2? I would assume the cockpit controls that. If pilots are incapacitated, pax get no O2, right?

Pax O2 is automatic as far as I know.

If the auto system does not work, there is a button in the cockpit to manually drop the pax masks.

bgm · Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:24 pm

Quoting holzmann (Reply 5):
I've never held my breath at FL380. With perhaps a broken windscreen in my face, glass everywhere (if it indeed shatters?), and the feeling of 400 Kt airspeed in my face.

You're missing the point he was trying to make, and that is the body can survive without oxygen for 30 seconds.

InsideMan · Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:25 pm

Quoting holzmann (Reply 8):

nope, once pressure drops below a certain threshold they are automatically deployed

LTC8K6 · Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:28 pm

Quoting bgm (Reply 11):
You're missing the point he was trying to make, and that is the body can survive without oxygen for 30 seconds.

But a rapid decompression is not the same as holding your breath.

pvjin · Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:29 pm

Quoting holzmann (Reply 8):

I think pax masks should deploy automatically. I think they were probably conscious all the way until the end.

holzmann · Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:31 pm

But doesn't blackout occur in 10-15 seconds at that altitude? 30 seconds is irrelevant really.

Just saying, what if the pilot's first reaction was to adjust to FL10 and NOT to don his O2 mask? There is only really time for one of two options in that case and assuming the other pilot is incapacitated, perhaps the wrong choice was made.

Sorry for all the "what if" questions.

I agree we should put additional speculation aside and wait for official announcements.

BlueShamu330s · Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:33 pm

Do we need the " ! " in the title? Seems a little tasteless.

Rivet42 · Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:37 pm

Could a windshield failure (for whatever reason) account for the spike in vertical acceleration recorded in the ACARS(?) data during the gradual left turn immediately before the descent began...? The data suggests a very sharp jolt, following which the aircraft levelled out of the turn and immediately began it's controlled descent (I use the word controlled very carefully, because all the indications are that it was exactly that - it appears to have been commanded, and was maintained with little or no deviation).

Riv'

LTC8K6 · Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:37 pm

Quoting moo (Reply 17):
It depends on the cause of the de-pressurisation, if indeed there was one - the masks drop on a sudden change in pressure, but if the change is gradual then they don't drop.

They drop at a cabin altitude of 14,000 feet, gradual or rapid.

Stabilator · Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:39 pm

Quoting holzmann (Reply 15):

But doesn't blackout occur in 10-15 seconds at that altitude? 30 seconds is irrelevant really.

Just saying, what if the pilot's first reaction was to adjust to FL10 and NOT to don his O2 mask? There is only really time for one of two options in that case and assuming the other pilot is incapacitated, perhaps the wrong choice was made.

Sorry for all the "what if" questions.

I agree we should put additional speculation aside and wait for official announcements.

A lot of speculation on your part. As stated and discussed in previous threads, Time of Useful Consciousness at their FL was around 20-30 seconds (NOT 10-15 seconds as you mentioned). As another member pointed out, modern airliners have "quick donning" O2 masks; they're designed to be put on in 5 seconds with one hand. If aware of rapid decompression, the first instinct would be to put on your mask, due to the limited time of "useful consciousness".

777Jet · Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:42 pm

Quoting Rara (Reply 2):
Quoting holzmann (Reply 1):
5. Entire crew and passengers die within 30 seconds due to asphyxiation.

Try holding your breath for 30 seconds, see if you die.

Quoting holzmann (Reply 5):
I've never held my breath at FL380. With perhaps a broken windscreen in my face, glass everywhere (if it indeed shatters?), and the feeling of 400 Kt airspeed in my face.

Good point!

I am pretty sure that trying to hold your breath for 30 seconds or however long in the comfort of your living room at sea level would not be the same as trying to hold your breath under the above mentioned conditions...

moo · Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:43 pm

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 19):
They drop at a cabin altitude of 14,000 feet, gradual or rapid.

Ahh, didn't know that, thanks.

breiz · Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:48 pm

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 6):
1. Front windscreen fails, perhaps even breaks.

Wouldn't the glass blow outwards?

There are actually numerous instances of cracked windshield around the world every year.
None of them has ever been catastrophic.
The usual routine in such an occurance is to divert.

There is the infamous incident of a Captain being partly sucked out from the cockpit because a wrongly fitted winshield glass failed.
The Captain was held in position, half outside, by his colleague who managed to land the ac while keeping a good grip on the pilot's legs.
Here is the account: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Airways_Flight_5390

HPRamper · Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:49 pm

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 6):
Wouldn't the glass blow outwards?

Certainly not on the flight deck. In the cabin, yes.

jollo · Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:51 pm

Quote:
If I understand correctly... Just push on the stick, the plane pitches down, then leave the stick in neutral with autopilot off.

I second this question form part 4: with a disconnected A/P, in an already descending trajectory (negative pitch), in Normal control law and with no pitch input (1 g demand), would an A320 hold a straight, quasi-constant IAS descent path similar to the one described for this accident? Would a specific engine power setting be required for this scenario (e.g. idle)?

Need an Airbus-savvy member, please...

Navigator · Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:51 pm

I actually think also of decompression in the cabin or toxic gases that made the pilots unconscious . Or they have simply fallen asleep after for some reason the plane was put into descent ... I think the autopilot flew on its own. If the pilots were conscious they had somehow disconnected the automatic or sent message to ATC . ( Come to think of Swissair 111 and Helios accidents ....) (Sorry if some others have already speculated in this direction...)

travelavnut · Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:52 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 9):

Plenty of unfounded rumours, rampant speculation and the usual sprinkling of conspiracy theories, however (high-quality posts from the usual contributors notwithstanding).

Thanks scbriml. I just read they found the black box and it is in a readable condition, a sliver of good news in a horrible two days.

777Jet · Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:55 pm

Quoting breiz (Reply 23):
There are actually numerous instances of cracked windshield around the world every year.
None of them has ever been catastrophic.
The usual routine in such an occurance is to divert.

There is the infamous incident of a Captain being partly sucked out from the cockpit because a wrongly fitted winshield glass failed.
The Captain was held in position, half outside, by his colleague who managed to land the ac while keeping a good grip on the pilot's legs.
Here is the account: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Airways_Flight_5390

The famous British Airways Flight 5390 incident you referred to occurred at 17,300 feet, not at the much higher altitude where this incident began...

Rara · Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:57 pm

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 21):
I am pretty sure that trying to hold your breath for 30 seconds or however long in the comfort of your living room at sea level would not be the same as trying to hold your breath under the above mentioned conditions...

His assertion was that all passengers and crew were dead within 30 seconds from asphyxation. Living room or not, that's just medically non-sensical.

mcdu · Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:03 pm

Some of theories here appear to come from those in Hollywood that write scripts for things happening in airliners that can't or would never happen. The far fetched and implausibility of most of the scenarios here are a huge disservice. If you have ZERO knowledge of airplane systems then perhaps any speculation on your part is best kept to yourself.

[Edited 2015-03-25 06:06:25]

PlanesNTrains · Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:09 pm

Particularly when we will likely in just a few hours have a preliminary description of what "might" have happened.

-Dave

mmo · Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:10 pm

Quoting holzmann (Reply 1):
4. Said pilot dies of asphyxiation before he can push the button to drop O2 masks. Or perhaps can't see as he is blind due to broken glass / conditions in cockpit.

Quoting holzmann (Reply 8):
Crew O2...no. But PAX O2? I would assume the cockpit controls that. If pilots are incapacitated, pax get no O2, right?

When the cabin altitude gets to 14,000 the pax O2 masks will automatically deploy. There is no need for intervention from the cockpit.

Quoting Rivet42 (Reply 18):
Could a windshield failure (for whatever reason) account for the spike in vertical acceleration recorded in the ACARS(?) data during the gradual left turn immediately before the descent began...? The data suggests a very sharp jolt, following which the aircraft levelled out of the turn and immediately began it's controlled descent (I use the word controlled very carefully, because all the indications are that it was exactly that - it appears to have been commanded, and was maintained with little or no deviation).

The IVSI is not a barometric instrument. It is part of the ADIRS system and is instantaneous, unlike a old VSI which is baro operated and has a lag.

TheSonntag · Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:11 pm

Danish Ingeniören has come forward with a theory:

http://ing.dk/artikel/dansk-ekspert-...dsynlig-aarsag-til-flystyrt-175024

Pressure loss most likely.

"Flyet undergik et mindre service-tjek dagen før ulykken. Her er det blandt andet kommet frem, at der skulle have været et mindre problem med en dør i flyets næse. Døren åbner til et rum, hvor flyets computere er placeret og skal have køling under flyvning. Når flyet står på jorden, åbnes døren. Den danske kilde peger på, at hvis døren er sprunget op under flyvning, kan det betyde, at kabinetrykket er forsvundet."

The plane was untertaken a smaller check the day before the accident. In this, it has for example been disclosed, that there might have been a smaller problem with a door in the nose of the place. The door opens to a compartment, where the computers of the plane are placed and need cooling during the flight. When the airplane is on the ground, this door is opend. The danish sources clame, that if that door fell open during the flight, it could mean that cabin pressure has disappeared".

Well, its speculation, of course, but Ingeniören is usually not a bad source.

b78710 · Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:16 pm

Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 33):
The plane was untertaken a smaller check the day before the accident. In this, it has for example been disclosed, that there might have been a smaller problem with a door in the nose of the place. The door opens to a compartment, where the computers of the plane are placed and need cooling during the flight. When the airplane is on the ground, this door is opend. The danish sources clame, that if that door fell open during the flight, it could mean that cabin pressure has disappeared".

Well, its speculation, of course, but Ingeniören is usually not a bad source.

Not sure on the 320, but 330 and 340, this door is a plug door, it can't just fall open.

BubbleFrog · Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:16 pm

I thought it was said earlier the nose-wheel is in an unpressurised area of the a/c? Or am I getting things wrong?

And planes have flown more or less accidentally with their feet down -- wouldn't the dynamic pressure also create problems if opening that door during flight occurred?

(Not that I know anything about this, obviously.)

[Edited 2015-03-25 06:17:30]

hofimax · Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:21 pm

Austrian Newspaper "Die Presse" reports that first voice recorder analysis shows that most likely the cockpit window broke.

Google translate:

Quote:
"Die Presse" was noted from well-informed circles of aviation experts that you have the cockpit voice recorder already largely evaluated - this is a pure digital sound file , the evaluation would last about half an hour .

Thus , the testimony of a person who wishes to remain anonymous , had heard a sudden crash in the cockpit, as if something bests . " It was quick ," it says , and : The pilots had just can switch the autopilot on Notlandeanflug , then was nothing more to be heard within a few seconds .

Source: http://diepresse.com/home/panorama/w...borgen?_vl_backlink=/home/index.do

BubbleFrog · Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:22 pm

"Die Presse" probably got that from here or Aviation Herald. Just like the Daily Mail, that actually quotes "forums used by airline professionals" or some such.

Edit: The Mail says "professional pilot forums ".

[Edited 2015-03-25 06:24:09]

b78710 · Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:23 pm

Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 33):

I initially assumed they were talking about the access door to the avionic bay, Having re-read it, it sounds as if they may be talking about the equipment cooling overboard valve, if this fails open in flight, there is no way it would cause a rapid decompression, its very small and i would imagine easily controlled by closing the outflow valves.

MadameConcorde · Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:23 pm

European leaders and officials visit the crash site.

Live feed from RT

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTgYyImCgpw

edited this is a better link

http:// rt.com/ on-air/Airbus-A320-apls- operation/

(please remove the spaces)

[Edited 2015-03-25 06:29:24]

lastrow · Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:24 pm

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 28):
There is the infamous incident of a Captain being partly sucked out from the cockpit because a wrongly fitted winshield glass failed.
The Captain was held in position, half outside, by his colleague who managed to land the ac while keeping a good grip on the pilot's legs.
Here is the account: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Airways_Flight_5390

The famous British Airways Flight 5390 incident you referred to occurred at 17,300 feet, not at the much higher altitude where this incident began...

Again some comment from a German forum member (referring to some post of the prev thread):

Yes there was a TV documentary on that l - this is fun btw: flying to somewhere and watching flight accident documentary in the hotel evenings - however this one was not cracked windshield / windscreen but use of wrong bolts / screws / fasteners which unsoldered the windshield immediately when reaching aforementioned altitude level. A similar issue (inappropriate windshield mounting) could be also the case for this incident as far as current uncertainties allow. The documentary was actually quite sad to watch, because a number of crew members were interviewed ...

Just a question, because this is the usual behavior for some materials in general: Will there be an immediate burst of a windshield - what was suggested by some posters before? I would expect to see a crack first and then see it growing instead of having it bursting in a single moment. (depends on your perception of time, of course)

Adding to it: as in issue of material fatigue, not some object flying into the windshield-

[Edited 2015-03-25 06:26:42]

holzmann · Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:25 pm

"Es ging schnell", heißt es, und: Die Piloten hätten gerade noch den Autopilot auf Notlandeanflug umstellen können, danach sei binnen weniger Sekunden nichts mehr zu hören gewesen.

It was fast. Meaning, the pilots had enough time to select the emergency landing feature and then there was nothing more to be heard.

Faro · Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:27 pm

Quoting breiz (Reply 23):
There are actually numerous instances of cracked windshield around the world every year.
None of them has ever been catastrophic.

True, outright cockpit window failure seems an even more extreme occurence.

One wonders, however, whether such a failure would have an aerodynamic impact on the flight path, whether it would at the very least make holding a precise straight-and-level trajectory problematic/difficult.

Faro

bueb0g · Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:27 pm

Quoting Rara (Reply 2):
Try holding your breath for 30 seconds, see if you die.

That has nothing to do with it. You're at sea level. When the pressure drops, the problem isn't actually getting oxygen into your lungs (well that is also a problem, but less immediate) but rather the diffusion of oxygen into your bloodstream. In low pressure, i.e at high alt, you will not get enough oxygen diffusing, and will pass out quickly, far quicker than holding your breath at sea level. You cannot compare the two. Braindeath will occur not long after passing out. So yes, death will not happen that quickly, but unconsciousness (which has exactly the same implications when applied to the pilots) will occur very quickly.

Quoting travelavnut (Reply 3):
I have been offline since just after this disaster happened and haven't had a chance to read the previous 5 threads. As the media is still blaring about a computer problem (the AoA sensor freeze problem which IIRC was already fixed on this aircraft) I was wondering if there is any news?

Not really. BEA press conference later today.

Quoting bgm (Reply 11):
You're missing the point he was trying to make, and that is the body can survive without oxygen for 30 seconds.

Not at altitude.

Quoting Rara (Reply 29):
His assertion was that all passengers and crew were dead within 30 seconds from asphyxation. Living room or not, that's just medically non-sensical.

Dead, no. But the essence of his point was correct.

Quoting BubbleFrog (Reply 35):
I thought it was said earlier the nose-wheel is in an unpressurised area of the a/c? Or am I getting things wrong?

Yep, it's unpressurised.

TheSonntag · Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:30 pm

Quoting b78710 (Reply 38):
I initially assumed they were talking about the access door to the avionic bay, Having re-read it, it sounds as if they may be talking about the equipment cooling overboard valve, if this fails open in flight, there is no way it would cause a rapid decompression, its very small and i would imagine easily controlled by closing the outflow valves.

I agree the text is very unspecific (so is the Danish part, which I translated into English, which, since my mother tongue is German, is certainly less accurate than a translation from Danish-German, but it is what the Danish part says)

lastrow · Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:30 pm

Quoting holzmann (Reply 41):
"Es ging schnell", heißt es, und: Die Piloten hätten gerade noch den Autopilot auf Notlandeanflug umstellen können, danach sei binnen weniger Sekunden nichts mehr zu hören gewesen.

It was fast. Meaning, the pilots had enough time to select the emergency landing feature and then there was nothing more to be heard.

Important information would be now why nothing more was to be heard - because it was actually silent in the cockpit or because the recording failed?

BubbleFrog · Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:32 pm

Quoting holzmann (Reply 41):
"Es ging schnell", heißt es, und: Die Piloten hätten gerade noch den Autopilot auf Notlandeanflug umstellen können, danach sei binnen weniger Sekunden nichts mehr zu hören gewesen.

It was fast. Meaning, the pilots had enough time to select the emergency landing feature and then there was nothing more to be heard.

That's almost exactly the wording of the anonymous and since deleted comment from AvHerald some hours ago, which got us confused.

Not that it can't be true, but it seems at least shaky without any official confirmation.

Quoting bueb0g (Reply 43):
Yep, it's unpressurised.

Ta.

TheSonntag · Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:35 pm

Quoting holzmann (Reply 41):
"Es ging schnell", heißt es, und: Die Piloten hätten gerade noch den Autopilot auf Notlandeanflug umstellen können, danach sei binnen weniger Sekunden nichts mehr zu hören gewesen.

If so - and please excuse this speculation, I am just asking - wouldn't the SOP be "mask first, autopilot later"?

bikerthai · Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:39 pm

Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 33):
, that there might have been a smaller problem with a door in the nose of the place.

Is the access to this door through the nose wheel well? I wonder if rapid decompression in the EE bay would result in loss of some systems (lack of distress call)? Then the possibility of the departing door or the wheel well door could cause damage to other structures or engine ingestion?

bt

highflier92660 · Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:43 pm

I realize this is premature, but if this A320 experienced catastrophic decompression a thousand feet from its maximum certified altitude, there is going to be some major re-evaluation of the A320 airframe design life and the 60,000 cycle extension program. Among the world's airlines, Lufthansa maintenance ranks right at the top. If they missed metal fatigue around a window in one of he older, high-time A320s in the world fleet, there is going to be some real soul searching.

[Edited 2015-03-25 06:43:50]

travelavnut · Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:45 pm

Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 47):
If so - and please excuse this speculation, I am just asking - wouldn't the SOP be "mask first, autopilot later"?

Besides that, I have never heard of an emergency landing system....

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